The Tax Bill and Treasury Auction

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Well.

Stephanie Roth joins US now chief economist at Wolf Research. The fact, Stephanie is I got a thirty year bond. Lisa was talking it was a five eleven rounded up, it's now a five thirteen. Are the bonvigilantes telling the politicians what to do and does it then amend your economic forecasts?

I think there might be work that the bond vigilantes will continue to do in the next.

Couple of weeks.

At this point, there's not enough that would really change policy, but there's a real reality that we might have yields continue to sell off such that it makes policymakers blink to some extent.

But we are tire there to be clear.

You'll hire price down years.

Ye'll higher price down, but we are not there such that at this point, the you know, the bill will continue to move on until this happens such that it creates a big sell off inequities. This is not our base case, but there's a real possibility of it.

Is a five thirteen thirty year bond and eight percent mortgage.

I don't know, it's not mean good folks that are good about here go out and try to buy a house this weekend. So Stephanie, what are you guys thinking about this economy here? I mean again, as we think about the tariffs. I was just reading a note by Torsen Slock. He makes it very simple. You know, tariffs were about three percent. Now they're on a weighted basis

We don't have a recession call. We're looking for Actually, growth could be above one percent this year, really okay, somewhere between one and one and a half percent. So you do have a big tariff hit to the economy. With the rollbacks of China that was significant.

Yep.

So tariffs could weigh on the economy by about seventy basis points. But the Reconciliation bill has a bit of a positive impact as well. Why because the business provisions do get pulled forward into twenty twenty five, so about twenty basis.

So it has stimulus like COVID type of stimulus effect.

A lot more, a lot more modest this year. Next year we should have actually a decent amount of stimulus from this bill. Combination of the business provisions as well as the individual provisions, things like no tax on tips, no tax on overtime, that really has an impact next year.

So that this all flows down to the consumer, which of course is seventy percent of this US economy. How is the consumer out there from your perspective, So part of.

The consumer's okay, nothing that bad has happened to them.

Jobs continue to grow, they continue to have solid wage gains, and as long unless that can change is the consumer will continue to chug along.

Here, what's the biggest mystery of your research forecast? You got an Excel spreadsheet. She's awesome at it, so yeah, she does formulus like no one. What's the biggest hole in that Excel spreadsheet?

The biggest secret?

I think the real question is the multiplier effect from the tariffs. So you could say the tariff dollars raised, have every dollar that gets raised from tariffs has a one dollar impact on GDP. That's kind of the more extreme outlook, in which case you could have a bigger impact negative impact on the economy this year, or you could say it has a more you know, the lower

Paul Gary out on the The Light Chat on YouTube, I like learn show on this. I'm sorry, Gary kills it welcome back to the Vulcar era.

Young pupps. It's coming.

I mean, it's inflammatory exactly, but I'm watching the thirty year bond here. It's seven point rounded up five excuse me, five point one three percent. It's not Vulcar, but it's a shift, to.

Say the least.

Eric from the back room rights in Anna Wang is arguing tariff revenue will neutralize the deficit impact.

That's my next.

Question is Stephanie, thank you doctor Wang for I mean, we got help from girl.

We got help from Wang. Today it's too too long.

Everybody's terrors bringing money right there?

Where's it go?

So base cases the tariffs bring in three to four hundred billion dollars a year, which is not nothing. It does help to offset the deficit impact. Granted, the deficit is still going to be somewhere between six and seven percent over the next decade, so it's really not great. In a positive scenario, maybe you're in the five percent range, but you're so certainly nowhere near the three percent that Besson has been targeting.

So what is FED Chairman J. Paldow. He looks at this legislation today, he says, does it change his outlook at all about how he thinks about interest rates for this economy?

Yeah?

I think at the margin, it reduces the odds that the FED able to cut this year.

We technically have two.

Cuts on paper, but the odds are certainly lower than that rather than more so, especially when you think about the sort of the net impact of tariffs, which now there's a lot less uncertainty, there's less concern around empty shelves, which meets the consumer more likely to spend, and we have a bit of a fiscal stimulus this year helping to offset some of the tariff drag. And the next year we're just talking about net fiscal stimulus, so growth potentially above two percent.

The special edition of Bloomberg Surveying. That's a historic moment for those waking up across America.

Two minutes to the hour this.

Morning, Nathan Hager on air, the House passed this historic text legislation. Thank you Terry Haynes and David Gurra for wisdom here and Stephanie Roth briefness right now with Wolf Research and Anna Wong out moments ago with an extensive node including work Paul from the Yale Budget Lab and the Text Foundation, I mean, Ernie Tedesky and the team, and Maam mcguinnis these are our budget people folk.

We will have them on air in the coming days.

Is Stephanie is Eric mentioned with the team doctor Wang Paul mentioning.

You know what terror springing money they do?

They do and you know maybe it's the tariffs. Plus this House budget could be near deficit neutral, according to Enna Wong. So Stephanie, what's the next data point for you? What's the big issue for you to see where this economy maybe tips on the margin over the next six months. What are you looking for?

Is it I'd like her to say six to twelve hours, yes, exactly?

Is that labor? Is it bed? What are you looking at?

The next thing to watch out for is labor.

So one thing that we're watching, especially after the Supreme Court ruled on Venezuelan's that their TPS is going to be expiring for them, which is a hawk shoutcome that suggests that the program chn v.

Cuba hating a Garab woman whale.

There's about five hundred thousand people that's held up in courts and Trump tried to end all of their visas overnight. This suggests that the margin that these visas might also be ruled in a similar way, such that we might lose about five hundred thousand people from.

The labor force overnight.

So the thing that we're going to be watching from the labor market reports is what's happening with the foreign born workforce and are we're starting to see non farm pails shift down substantially because of the slowdown in immigration.

Sephanie, we're off bond strategists with us.

I got a ten year real yield not breaking out yet, but a two point two three percent up substantially off of the negative one percent COVID thing. I'm not back to a four percent real yield of the year two thousand. But do you just assume a higher inflation just to yield dampen's business or is that an animal spirit that folds into nominal GDP?

Yeah?

I mean I think it could damp into some extent, But for now we might be in an environment where growth is actually just surprising to the upside.

Well, that's what President Trump's betting on. This is a growthiness is there?

Yep?

And that might be the case, even though we're still talking about one percent GDP growth. It's not that great for this year, but for next year looking ahead, growth might actually be pretty Twenty seconds.

What are you writing about this morning? Just give me a theme there. I don't want to take it away from Wolf Research clients, but what's a number one message from you this morning to your clients?

The main message we wrote back this morning was on the reconciliation bill. The main thing is there's there's hidden hidden sort of spending here, in the sense that a lot of the provisions end after four years, but if they are extended, which is largely the assumption, that's an additional one point two five trillion dollars in addition to the price tag of this bill.

This is what the bond market Brian.

Jeff I love this.

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Russ brown Beck joins us to say is it black Rock is barely descriptive of the huge perspective.

And the intelligence of his note.

The fancy title is Global Macro Positioning Team, which means that Hobart years ago, he's the one that bought the cases of Jenny Kremel.

In high school. I'm in college. I went up to visit a high school buddy mine in Hobart February.

February night. It was the coldest.

Weather I ever experienced. I was darn near in Canada. I felt like, what am I doing? That's the cold and dark, cold and dark exactly. That's where Russ sped for years out of Hobart. So, Russ, what are you doing with this market here? I mean, there's so much uncertainty. We've seen the equity markets go down twenty percent, retrace a lot of that. We had a crazy treasury market

Yep?

So this is the super Bowl for macro. Okay, you know the the uncertainty. And by the way, the uncertainty has been with us for several years. And when we had a historic FED tightening cycle, a regional banking crisis that was scary in the moment, we had an acrimonious, historic election last year, and now you know, an uncertain period as policy gets rolled out, and so you know, it's a wonderful opportunity in fixed income y'all. In an

But oh wise, when folks I can't say enough about the acuity of his note. We could literally do one hour through us and go two sentences by two sentences through the intelligence of his note.

Okay, that's new money captures a real yield.

New money captures a you know, ten year yield to four point six one percent.

Wow.

But the old buddies seeing price go down? Do people take losses? How does like if you're in JGB twenty year, you got a loss. In the US you got a loss? Do you take losses?

Here?

So again you're pointing to the tactical opportunities that exist. The way we position our multisector portfolios is to avoid those longer duration assets that have all that volatility today. And if you're in the front to the belly of the curve, and then you're marrying corporate credit and securitized assets on top of that, you know you're getting enough income where you can ride out short term periods of volatility that give you price losses from one day to

How do you this is like with Ira Jersey here it'll be the same question, how do you feel the losses in long term paper?

Will clear just done?

It? To go to Friedrich Kayak on a Hiachian basis, what's the process to clear a twenty year yield loss?

You know, I actually think that question was answered in twenty twenty two. That was the year that the aggregate index, as a proxy for the fixed income market, it broke. It had its worst down year in a generation. And so here we are three years later, and everything seems to be functioning reasonably well. So I think I think we've learned that lesson. You always like to say, as the X axis extends, you know, you have more certainties.

Lisa, somebody listens to the show. Okay, is the axis, folks whore ripping up the script? Is the xaxis given this legislation, given the uncertainty of the.

Secretary of Treasure in Trump? Is the xaxis.

Logarithmic where there's a non linear dynamic in time right now?

So you know, again I talked about it being the super Bowl of macro. You know this the EBB and flow. The narrative has been so negative, and yet underpinning all of it is I think an incredible positive story for fundamentals, particularly as it pertains to corporate credit, securitized assets and the like. So, you know, I love a wall of worry in markets, and I think underpinning it all is an optimism.

We talked about it a lot late last year. We forgot all about it.

All we talk about is what's what's scary today?

How about credit? Here, Russ, how much credit risk are you guys taking in at black Rock these days?

So the credit markets are higher quality than they've really ever been, certainly in my career, and they're supported by really profound technicals. Here's a great statistic for you, so I for you're cocktail party statistics, exactly, I need it. The entire high yield market the index market capitalization one point four trillion dollars. The treasury market grows by that size every nine months by virtue of the deficit. So it speaks to the deficit of yielding assets in market today.

How do you guys deal with private credit that's been such a growth story over the last fifteen years. That was in early in our careers we didn't have really probably had private equity, We didn't really have private credit. Now it's become such a big asset class. How do you guys think about that?

Another awesome opportunity for us. You know, we don't really make much of a delineation between.

Public and private markets.

You look first and you say, am I getting enough risk premium on the asset? And secondly, am I getting enough illiquidity premium? And if you are, then it belongs in the portfolio to the work of.

This is a Fidelty years ago, the giant George Vanderhyden and I think of Jeff Winnick and others the parlor game of buying a twenty year zero Are you so optimistic about total return, price up, yield down that you can speculate on a long duration zero coupon bond full of faith and credit?

So you know, again, we're going to look for the optimal opportunity set. We don't think it's at the back end of the curve. I will say, you know, there's a lot of barishness about term needs to be more term premium.

That's a very popular trade today.

Another great statistic, only eight point seven percent of marketable treasure are twenty years or longer. If you think about the long aggregate index twenty years and longer, it's less than three trillion in market capitalization. You think about long duration assets, pension funds, insurance companies, you know estimates of around five trillion. The technicals are pretty profound. So you can push the long end of the market down in a speculative way. Over the short run, it's really hard

Russ Tom and I've been talking about over the last several days that thirty year treasury, which we don't talk about very much, but the thirty year treasury is now five point four percent. What does that tell you?

Well, so I think if you are a long duration asset allocator five percent for the thirty year treasury or a thirty year corporate, that might yield to six percent is pretty attractive relative to the opportunity set. If I'm thinking about a sixty forty portfolio that's optimal, I want to own that front a belly expression that I talked about with corporate credit and securitized and if I want

Again, smart people like you come in here all the time, and I hear that consistently. I want to own the short of the belly of the curb, not necessarily take the who's buying the duration? If you guys aren't buying it, well, so here anybody coming in her. I love buying long duration bonds.

I think that there are a lot of you know, asset liability managers that need long duration assets. And so you think about again your insurance companies, your pension funds, and to them, you know, five or six percent. You think about what was possible in the decade leading into the pandemic, you know, looking at the long bomb with a one handle, you know, this is a much better.

Environed Nobody wanted to talk to you back in the day. Yes, you didn't have any We were.

Off script. But thats your bane. How do you fold the.

Japanese challenge into our full faith and credit US market? Sarah Ellis at Deutsche Bank links in the Japanese people saying, Okay, I'm out of full faith in credit US. I'm coming over to Japan and I'm going to get a strong end because all that money's coming back.

Do you buy the thesis?

So it's a very different thesis.

You know that their fiscal dynamics are far worse than they are in the United States. They've just come off of yield curve control, they're going through quantitative tightening, and they're bringing short term interest rates higher in deference to finally a normalization of inflation higher. It's a different set of circumstances there. Again, I'm going to turn it to

Here's you valuable all features us on single best Idea. Russ brownback with us with black Rock Today, just encyclopedical.

That was just absolutely wonderful.

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Terry Haynes joins US now with pengea policy. I can't say enough about his public service out and linked In, not only doing his consulting with penge in all the fancy stuff he does there, but he's been very generous out on LinkedIn to explain this moment, Terry. We're gonna be with you in a bid and I've got David Gerry here with his expertise to ask some.

Questions as well.

Terry, how will the Senate take this football from the house?

Well, I think they take it very much in their own way. Tom, there is no requirement. That mean you've tied me up with Civics one oh one, So here I go. There's absolutely no requirement that the Senate take the House bill as anything definitive at all.

Uh.

You know it has it has passed the Chamber with all Republican votes and uh, and they have a tiny majority. But the Senate will do this as they wish. And I think what ends up happening here is, UH, they end up softening some of the harder edges. So I think the UH a lot of the debates about the harder edges and things like medicaid and UH and and phase outs for clean energy subsidies, things like that.

Softened.

Secondly, I do think you get a little bit of a nod to the rising bond vigilanteism by some additional uh, additional cuts to make sure that there's uh, there's a little bit more deficit reduction.

Uh.

And and part of that, I think for for your audience too, means that you've seen the high water mark of salt, Because what that means is because you know, they needed they needed salt to get votes in the House. They don't need salt to get votes of the Senate, right, so salts back back in the firing line.

The President seems to have a great affinity to the gentleman from Louisiana, much more of a distant affinity to the gentleman from the Dakotas. What's the power that Senator Thune has in this debate.

Well, he's the chief cat herder. Frankly, this is a unique process, again for your audience, because this reconciliation process is unique because it's pretty much the only the legislation where you need only bare majorities of the House and the Senate in order to pass something, So you don't need the usual sixty sixty vote roundup that provides a modicum of bipartisanship. What you need is a situation. What you need is fifty three Republican senators and that's pretty

It's like, Paul, it's like a ten of the masters, right, that's I guess.

Across the nation, we say good morning to you.

We are thrilled at this historic moment where the House passage of the bill David Gurr understands, and I don't that we have Terry Aynes with us with Pangaea policy a special edition certainly a special moment for Bloomberg surveillance.

Sweeney and I were like, we have no clue what we're talking about.

Bringing an adult David Gurra with Terry Haines.

Terry, it's great to talk to you as always, and I'd love to kind of linger on the deadline for all of this if we could. So we have a House speaker who managed to get this through by the deadline that he imposed. Looming large here, of course, is that X state the need by which the lawmakers have to raise the dead ceiling before the warning that we've gotten from the Treasury secretary. How much of a forcing

You know, I'm a big fan, even in my personal life, of the adage that work expands to fill the time a lot. It certainly certainly that's how the Congress operates. So what you get is so what you get is a situation where you know, whatever the X date is is kind of the ultimate backstop. But I'd urge folks to look at this in two ways. The X date is the ultimate backstop, whatever it is August, September, maybe even late July.

But the other.

Backstop, I think in the pold more political backstop is July fourth. The reason why I say that is that there is you've seen out of the House urgency to try to get this done, and momentum and building momentum to try to get this done. The President will certainly want to push on the Senate to keep that momentum building and keep a fire lit under them. Number one.

I whan.

I guess the President didn't stay up through the night, but we know he gets up for surveillance every morning, so he's likely listening and watch this vote unfold. But I want to ask you, Terry, if I could just about sequencing here, to use the Washington word, And there's been a lot of criticism here that the White House pushed for tariffs and trade modifications before they focused wholly on this bill. Now, with the benefit of hindsight, what was that a mistake?

Have we overplayed that?

Or was this a balancing act that the White House was able to successfully execute?

I think a little bit more of the ladder. You know, I wouldn't call it it's an incomplete success at best, but certainly they've they have They've avoided the worst of a lot of the tariffs and put themselves on track to negotiate a lot of these major bipartisan deals. I'm not cheerleading when I say so, it's just, you know, that's the way the markets reacted ultimately.

But you know, I.

Urge people to consider that, for example, with China, what that is is a pause. Everyone wants to say, knowingly to themselves, to each other and themselves, well, you know Trump's backed off. Now, it's all good, But well these are all the same people that didn't think Trump was going to do what he did in April to begin with.

Across some Erica.

A conversation this morning with David Gerra of Bloomberg News and Terry Haynes of Pangaea Policy will welcome all of you, particularly across YouTube. Subscribe to Bloomberg Podcast. It's a new digital distribution. Did a thing with Pimco last night, major shout out on Serious XCM. Do you listen Paul as Serious XM.

One to twenty one? And well, I don't look like Howard Stern.

I mean, it's not gonna gonna work, but we're thrilled to have Terry Haynes with us for this special edition of Bloomberg Surveillance Green on the screen.

The market does a little better right now. The vic's twenty point three two.

But you know, Paul, as you jump in here with mister Haynes and mister Gerra, the thirty year bond is a higher yield.

Yes it is over the last twenty minutes, rounded up five point.

House hunting this weekend is going to be.

A little choungee. I'm not refinancing the mortgage on the Jersey Shore compound. Hey, Terry, the Senate gets back from a well deserved break on June second, then they're going to look at this bill. What's the Senate going to do with this bill?

Terry?

How does that work? Uh?

Well, they'll they'll take it up in component parts. There's no requirement they take anything the House the House gives them, and they probably won't. H I think what they end up doing is softening the edges on on a lot of the harder things that needed to get done in order to attract Republican conservatives. Give them a fig leaf give them a fig leaf for for fiscal fiscal continents, if you will.

Terry, Terry, I have to interrupt. The Speaker of the House is speaking. We always take.

Someone from Louisiana over. Terry Hayes.

Here he is Speaker Johnson.

Celebrate a new golden age of America.

Thank you for being here.

I yield next to our leaders Slee and as a speaker said, it truly is morning in America again. You know, when you think about all of the work that's gone in to putting this bill together, it's one beautiful bill for a lot of reasons.

There are a lot of.

Really important wins for the American people in this bill.

And we had eleven committees come together.

In me in hearings. Some went on over twenty four hours. Rules Committee went over twenty hours. You had, you know, of course the Budget Committee Chairman Arrington is the lead author of the bill.

All of the people that had been.

Come together in our conference, and I think a lot of you know, we don't all think a light. Democrats made it very clear they didn't want to have any part in helping get America back on track again.

But we were never deterred when this bill could have failed ten times over. We said we were going to.

Get this done, and failure is not an option, and we meant it. We knew we were fighting for the families who had been struggling for way too long under the failed policies of Joe Biden and all the Democrats he did out.

Of control of Washington for too long.

We watched higher interest rates and higher inflation and lower wages and a demise of the American dream that we knew should not be permanent, but was only going to turn around if we passed a bill to get.

America bas Steve Callice Scaliso, I should say back to back to Louisiana here, Paul Sweeney and Tom Keen, Lisa Matteo Patient with a data check coming up here, and in course Michael Barrow news including the difficult murders in Washington overnight. The special edition of Bloomberg Surveillance were focused on Washington.

Good Morning ninety ninety one FM. Nathan with a great job earlier in the morning. Fantastic, I mean briefed in like way better we are. We have David Gerrow with us, who's smarter than we are. Also Terry Haynes, Patient to be with us as well.

Terry color the.

Moment here where.

The House has two leaders from Louisiana versus the alleged Senate, Like, does the House leadership talk to the Senate? What's the body language in the white marble at Capitol Hill.

Oh?

Sure they talked to They talked to the Senate quite a lot. I think Johnson was over and the senators recently is Tuesday briefing senators on on progress and been begging them to take the House package, which which they won't do. So but he's got to do that.

Yeah, they talk, They talk a lot.

But you know, the the thing with politics that I think a lot of folks don't, No, it's it's it's just, you know, it's combat. Even when you have even when you're jostling around with friendlies, you know, it's uh it's uh, it's elbows up hockey or or elbows basketball, pick your sporting metaphor. But uh, you know, you you've got to fight for every inch and the houses. The House's job in most legislation is to overreach.

Uh.

You know, you've got kind of a purest imperative where you get you consciously reach you too much knowing you're going to get rolled back into the middle, and that's the Senate's job is to roll back into the middle. So then even in a reconciliation process where only the Republicans matter, that's exactly what they're to do here, because they've got a different calculus among their fifty three.

David Gurrow, quickly here before you go to Terry Haynes, give us a vignette, David Gura, of your last week of covering Washington, one little interview or one little moment where you were like, are you kidding me?

You know, I went down to Washington and sat down with the chair of the House Budget Committe. This was before the votes that took place over the weekend, and it was clear just in that conversation he's somebody who exudes a lot of confidences, Jody Rington, who has a lot of confidence about what he's able to do. But you saw in that committee in stark relief, just kind of the spectrum of Republicans in this day and age.

Terry.

Let me ask you just about the Medicaid issue in specific, because I think this is the one that's likely to be a hot button issue in the Senate as well as it wasn't in the House.

Is there room?

Is there is there a sense that senator senators are going to find it palable to put in these work requirements to make the kind of changes that we saw Republicans in the House agree to make.

I think they do. I think their requirements get softened to some extent, though, Uh, you know, the the mistake again in my Civics one on one role this morning, the uh, I think sometimes people make the mistake of looking at these things in silos. In other words, you know, all the matters is the Medicaid things. Let's talk about that.

Uh.

They had they had a bogging to meet in the House, a specific number of efficiencies that the that the committee that oversees Medicaid needed to make. They met that in part through the work requirements and everything else. But I think the Senate approach is that with a lot of skepticism, and I do think a lot of those things get softened.

Terry, how big of a win is this for President Trump?

It's the big win and that's it, you know, and being able to heard these particularly frascius Cats, get things done and get them done on time. With the creation of some momentum around this in the first half of the year, when by comparison, the twenty seventeen tax bill took literally all year, it didn't didn't go to final until December, that's a big accomplishment. That shows a lot of urgency on the part of Republicans, So that's positive for them.

You know.

Trick is to keep the fire lit under the Senate and make sure that he doesn't need to use is the ultimate backstop of the UH of the debt ceiling x states as something UH. But you know, I can actually roll that forward and make that happen even faster, which probably helps him economically as well worldwide.

Terry Hayes with this Pangaea policy and David Gura of the big take in Bloomberg News.

Ger and I and Lisa were in awe of discipline. Paul Sweeney, he's yet to ask about salt for those.

For those, it's you know, it's just a New York, Paul, it's a California in four or five other states.

Is Matt Miller has been pounding on this with the window here of our studio.

You can't shut him up.

So, Terry, I mean, salt, salt, it's it's a big issue. It's where are we on this? So, Terry, how does this salt situation stack up?

Well?

I think it's uh, yeah, I think And I told markets yesterday, I thought that what they had to look out for here is the you know, not not taking their their big salts and uh and going away. But because I think the world in the Senate's going to be slid light salt or no salt pretent really really yeah, I think they probably make a nod to it in the end, but much less. Uh. And the reason simple, The only reason why salt is even in this bill

If folks, it's a clinic with Terry Haynes. I can't say enough his efforts out on LinkedIn. Just literally it's worth it to sign up for LinkedIn, just to get penji up policy and the daily brief from Terry Hayes that you see out there. Terry, Thank you, generous of you at this historic moment to be with.

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Mark Douglas is the CEO of a company called Mountain and the company just went public today. They're going to start training today. MNTN is a ticker symbol. They raised one hundred and eighty seven million dollars. They sold eleven point seven million shares at sixteen bucks, So a solid start there for Mountain Marks on the I believe in your Socker chains floor right now, Mark Douglas, CEO Mountain joins us. Mark, talk to us about the IPO process here.

Well, I think the key message was that we had created a new segment of the television advertising market where we're bringing small and mid sized companies into the market for the first time on our platform where they can advertise on TV the same way they could previously do.

On search and social.

And so our customers have responded to that and we very please, like all the investors we met with on the road show responded just as well.

When you go into a meeting, do you take Ryan Reynolds into the meeting.

Well, he showed up on the teaching you know, the first day of a road show you meet with all the banks and all the people, and he was there. Was it was pretty fun meeting, so we had a good time.

So what's the distinction here? Help Paul and me. We're on on YouTube it's building every day.

Mark, We're just overwhelmed by the you know, as Colin of the Twins says, a discoverability factor.

How is ed revenue going to fold into YouTube.

Creators, whether they're hipsters like Lisa Mateo's kids or their fossils like me.

Yeah, so YouTube, something like YouTube, it's not competing with something like stream with streaming television, which is the market that we're in. It's actually people are just expanding their entertainment consumption. So more people watch TV a day than use social media. It's the highest engagement channel of any

Mark.

The month of May is a very important part of the year for global television business. Here we have the upfronts where the broadcasting cable networks and pretty much everybody else out there is trying to sell adspace shows. Everybody what they're going to be broadcasting in the upcoming year and they ask advertisers to step up and commit dollars for the upcoming levision decision. How are you episode fronts this year and how would you characterize the upfronts this year?

Yeah, so I think the advertisers are there for the upfronts. And the thing that I think the whole industry is really excited about is live sports on streaming. So you see ESPN and other networks really focused on live sports is kind of number one conversation I have with the leaders at these networks. And so I think the upfronts will be fine. I think our customers will do great.

So that's what you're going to see.

Mark Douglas, thank you for the time. Is the chief executive officer Mountain. The symbol mm TN their initial public offering today.

This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Listen live each weekday starting at seven am Eastern on Applecarplay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station. Just say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven thirty.

Lisa Matteo. Here she is with newspapers.

Okay, this is going to be all about the Wellness Hour.

Okay, help.

Captain, I'm all about the wellness And this is the story from the New York Times about those wearable devices. You heard it, like the r ring, the Apple watches, the fit bits. Okay, so these are devices that track your biometric data, right, you have body temperature, heart rate, blood pressure, how much rem sleep you get. But a lot of users say they enjoy it because it keeps them on top of, you know, all their data. But

Oh of course, did you check?

I just got the watch on her risk.

Have to watch, but I just use it to track like my workouts watch.

We have two eye watches at home that sit on the table. We couldn't figure out how to do it. It's too complex.

I mean it's pretty good, like the heart, like if I ever feel my heart kind of pacing, I'll check it. I can do it, you know here on my watch and just say.

What do you do? And then I.

Exactly, I'm glad that my heart was pacing what she was wearing me and meal Matt Gala and you know, thank god I had my apple I watched to say.

Exactly where you god steps on Tuesday? How about that?

See?

And how do you know that?

Do you need to do ten thousands stations?

That is a recommended That is a recommended ten thousands?

Do you do ten thousand steps to day?

I do?

I walked to and from the train and subway back home.

Yeah, I do. And the workout count too.

Okay, this one's tough.

Okay.

So we were talking about the next Pacers game, right, Okay, a lot of people paid some big bucks to watch.

And excluse at the garden.

It's at a record for seat prices. So this is according to boardroom. They pointed to data from tickpic and it shows the average price for tickets to Game one at the Garden record setting one and ninety three dollars, making it the most expensive NBA Conference Final game ever. Now, if you look at it just getting in the door, Okay, the current get in price for Game one is five hundred. Was five hundred and eighty dollars. That's nearly double the

I've been like two games in my life. I'm ignorant, Paul is the magic of the NBA. There's no boards and glass between the fans and.

The ice, and there's no mask the.

Player times, there's no mass, there's noll and so you really get to know who these people are and.

It's almost like a gladiator thing.

In The NBA does a great great job of developing and celebrating and highlighting and showcasing their store, whether it's you know, Michael Jordan or Lebron James or Steph Curry or whomever. They do a great job doing that, and it's it's you know, after the NFL, it's the NBA game.

Truth was, I was looking at StubHub for you for the next game courtside eleven thousand dollars and then at the top, yeah, at per ticket at the top, way at the top, just over seven hundred bucks.

Tickets still available.

Okay, okay, one.

More story slipping quick, Okay, I'll slip it in here.

Okay.

So Wall Street Journal says you can still negotiate a best and final offer even though it's a competitive labor market. Even if the salary is set. They say there's other places for wiggle room. So they say, ask for things like signing bonus, more flexible schedule, bigger title, maybe an extra week of vacation. Some people are doing like as is, but with an agreement to revisit this later. But they say it's not something for everyone. You know, you have to really be competitive and be in there.

Yes.

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