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We speak with Claudia sam chief Economist, News Century Advisors. Maybe we'll get her back here for Wednesday when we get the actual reported government shutdown and all that's three or four days delayed. There's been all sorts of responsible and irresponsible writing thinking blathering on our new Chairman of the Federal Reserve. The nominee is Kevin Worsh. At the top of the responsible pile is Claudia sam Ace, academics from Michigan, Real fed Credit bill, changing the dialogue of
recession in America. She has been careful and respectful about discussing the pros the cons of this new chairman. Claudia sim if we get a Chairman Worsh, what would you be? You said, your advice to Chairman Worsh to get through the first six months.
Unfortunately, I think Kevin Walsh may need to start with an apology. He's been pretty tough on the staff and on current FED officials. You know, it's maybe the campaign to get the job. And I am wholeheartedly agree the FED can always do better and has made mistakes in
the past, and there's ways to change the institution. But he said some pretty fiery stuff about people whose help he's going to need very soon, and I suspect he'll come in and be like, hey, you know we were collegues, ones for colleagues again, let's get to it, and I think the page will turn and off we go if some of his and pain promises of you know, breaking heads and laying off a bunch of people. If that happens, I think you'll have a pretty tough first six months.
So that's not my anticipation. But you know, the leadership style changes, and Kevin worsh is trying to do something really difficult. He has big ideas about how to change the FED. Change is very hard at the FED.
I mean I know that from being inside the building. So you know, good back to.
Him, Claudia.
We did not get the non pump payroll data today, but we have gotten some data in the less couple of days. Challenger job cuts high since two thousand and nine. Initial job as claims came in a little higher than expected, jolts openings fell to the LOWES level. So I think since twenty twenty, what is your view of kind of this labor market right now?
So, even with.
The data that we've gone this week, I agree with the assessment we heard from the FED at their last meeting that there are signs of stabilization, you know, the downside risk employment look a little bit less now. I think, you know, the data flow shows that this is still bumpy. We are not out of the woods yet. I would downplay the message from the Challenger data.
It absolutely is.
Important for every single person that's covering that data that got a pink slip, but it's it doesn't give us the flavor of like the whole set of businesses across the country. Honestly, the DROLT data, the job openings and labor turnover statistics that came out was much more upbeat. And the layoff rate nationally is still very low. It's like pre pandemic levels of low.
So I think on.
Layoffs, it's the pictures is okay, Actually it's actually pretty good. It's the hiring rate that is still very low, and that is a problem. Even if it's not recessionary. It is a real drain and a gradual increase in say unemployment.
Is the low higher low fire phenomena. Is that okay for this economy? Is that shockingly unusual? How do you think about that?
So what we're seeing right now is very unusual. We have a low hiring rate, which that happens from time to time. What makes it so unusual is we have an economy that is expanding it a pretty good clip. You know, do GDP numbers may be a little on the high side, but in genuc consumer spending is moving ahead, business investment, capital expenditures are happening right like. This economy is moving forward but not adding jobs.
And that is that is unusual.
And I think there are probably some reasons why that might be happening right now, like a lot, but it's this is not typical, and frankly, that makes it kind of not It makes it hard to read, and I don't think it's really sustainable. But it could go either way. Hiring could pick up or activity could slack off.
Claudia, you know an undergraduate, You get there and you go, okay, labor economics junior here this is going to be a breeze, and then you get the textbooks like whoa, this has got a little bit of ambiguity to it and sophistication. The hiring di ynamic. We had one guest earlier this week say, the lack the dearth of hiring models out at a near eight percent unemployment rate, is our unemployment rate worser than the four point x percent we were quoting?
Yeah, you know, it's one of there's a lot of reasons why the unemployment rate can move around. I think if you have the perspective of kind of bottoms up on the labor market, A lot of it's demographic. The population aging is one of the biggest pieces that means that we should have lower unemployment rates right now.
Now.
It is a cottage industries, particularly within kind of the FED, trying to figure out what's the unemployment rate that like is so low that it like sets off inflation, or is so high that it really is a sign that the FED needs.
To step in and be aggressively cutting rates.
So and that's that's really tricky because again it's not just like I said, with the jobless expansion, you when you're really trying to get a sense of what's happening in the economy. You got to take the unemployment rate and then go look at activity. You got to take the unemployment rate and go look at the demographics and what's happening with labor supply. So it's there's a lot of pieces that come together. So there's no one number that we should.
Look for the unemployment rate.
What I've always said, and this, you know, this shows with the dynamics, watch how it's moving. If the unemployment rate starts rising and it gets going more quickly, then we have a big problem.
Claudia.
President Trump really made good on his campaign pledge to a stop immigration, increased deportations. What effect has that had on the labor market. I haven't really seen it too much.
Well, we've been seeing it, and actually I think, you know, with the job report being delayed, I think it's a good time to kind of emotionally prepare people for next Wednesday. We're going to get the annual revisions to the payrolls, and there we know from some preliminary estimates they're going to be downward and they're going to be big again, starting actually back into the spring of twenty twenty four.
So it's not gonna fit nice through political narratives because we go across administrations, like it takes a long time to get all this data together, and we're gonna see a lot of red because because payroll increases in places we're low enough already that with the revisions, we expect we're gonna flip more months to payroll gains and the green to payroll decignely red and that will rattle people.
Even though this goes back to your question, we shouldn't take the recession signed to it, like we really have had a slowdown in the labor's supply and immigration is an important piece of that, and that just means these payroll numbers.
Okay, So at the Echos building, you got your unedible coffee from Michelle Smith. We're sitting at the desk doctor some and some wise guy goes, Okay, Claudia, how red is red gonna be? Do you have a revision statistic in your head? Oh?
I do, but I don't. I actually think in terms of people watch.
Nobody's listening, So let's go no.
But we know that the preliminary estimate was going to take something like sixty seventy thousand out a month over the period from the spring of March twenty twenty four to March twenty twenty five, and then after that we may have some additional downward revisions. And frankly, I think some of there's a potential even to get some surprise on the latest numbers because the BLS, and they're in their pledge to always do better with with their estimates.
Have this.
They will be unveiling their new birth death model and it's probably going to have a little less lift. So I think payrolls could be pretty unsettling. And again I don't I think there's a lot going on, and keep an eye on the unemployment, which I expect to say flat and maybe even tick down.
She's seldom this.
Yeah, I mean that's great.
We don't have to promote anything. If doctor some sells on Wednesday this Jobs Day, four minutes after the jobs the Job's non report, Claudia, Sam, thank you, thank you, thank you. Stay with us. More from Bloomberg Surveillance coming up after this.
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This is a joy Sean Simmons joys us right now. I pretty strategies at ubs, but I want to talk about and I remember this when Barok, I mean NYU was rocking on Peter Karr and Bruno de Pierre and all at KURRNT and Barok had the courage to come out with a huge venerable finance program they had and Dance Stefonica started the Quant program like twenty years ago at Brooke. How did you survive the Quant program at Brooke? It's a grind.
It was definitely challenging, set us up to, you know, work very hard when we left bruth though. That's always the feedback that I hear every Brook studio.
Apply it to this madness that you have to deal with with every day at ubs? How do you how do you deal with bitdog or or or anthropic? Is that what happened yesterday? I don't know. I don't know what clat is, But how do you apply quant academics to this madness we're living?
You know, shifting sands? We got to we have to be creative on how we think about things. And uh, you know, applied statistical processes to all of it.
Sean, I think for the you know, so for such a long period of time, for so many years, tech has led the equity markets, particularly in the US, less so in Europe.
Is that still the case?
Do you think we've had such a rotation of software and some other tech spaces over the last several weeks here?
How do you think about that?
Yeah, it's been interesting, and we talked about this last time, but going into this year, we were I moved tech into neutral for our full year outlook. Okay, part of that thesis was, you know, just general increase competition between the different companies in the cohort, as well as kind of technical rotations within the space overall. So it wasn't just a general text going to lift rising tides, right,
that is what's seemingly playing out right now. We still hold it as a neutral in our view for the year. So I do think there's going to be some opportunity opportunities with in tech, but it's not necessarily going to be the stalwart driver of the overall market.
So we saw a rotation a lot of folks will say, kind of beginning early November, we saw rotation from some of the tech to some other areas of the market, some maybe some more value oriented sectors industrials and consumer stables and maybe even small and mid caps.
Is that a thing for twenty six?
You know, I think I would push back on that a bit. You know, we again this idea of breath. What we had coming into this year was kind of a more and more consensus idea of breadth within the market as a whole. But we really saw that being led by IWN, by small caps, by speculative growth. So it wasn't necessarily pure value or the quality group that we had expected this year. You know, I think the
market got a bit ahead of its skis. From that perspective, we are kind of now starting to see that quality rotation. Quality improved yesterday. Value has clearly done very well, and we're seeing that speculative side come in.
Sean Seimers as we continue. We welcome all of you across the nation. Is good football that weekend? So Duke unc when is it Saturday?
Saturday? Are you going to I had a lot of offers to go, but no, it's okay.
It might be you know, they're thinking about closing down the Dean Dome and moving the basketball court somewhere different than chopoil.
Big issue in chap oil.
Well, we'll discuss it. Come look for that, folks in the nine o'clock hour this morning. We welcome all of you on YouTube and of course subscribe to Bloomberg Podcast program announcement Bloomberg finally coalescing all of our video platform together. Look at that at the hub at Bloomberg dot com. Sean you mentioned value. Okay, nobody out there, including Alexis Christopherus, knows that John Deere has popped a twenty two point nine percent per year return for the last ten years.
Have we been a sleep that boring? As Gartman would say, things that fall on your feet are doing Apple like returns.
I think there is part of that lack of awareness, and that's part of the thesis from Breadth right. If we don't have these kind of highlight tech names driving the overall market, and we are starting to see some improvement for those names from a fundamental standpoint, that's going to lead to some more improvement. We have a neutral
positive on materials industrials for that. I think there is a bit of the bleed of just the overall AI narrative in some of these spaces, you know, utilities under performance right now is something that we would flag there where we think that is a bit of the AI kind of exposure that utilities have. In that general thought, even though those fundamentals still appear quite attractive.
We're I guess, a little more than halfway through earnings season here, almost sixty percent of the way through the S and P five hundred, some pretty solid earnings this quarter, which support.
What we saw in twenty twenty five. Is it enough to support this market going forward?
I think so.
I think one of the interesting things from a performance perspective on the back of reporting, there's kind of two key areas that I'm watching right now. One, falling margins or those margins that have been hurt have been the kind of pocket of results that are getting most penalized, so that kind of supports the overall quality idea through
this year. The second is, you know, aside from consumer staples and industrials and one other, the median stock in all of these sectors is outperforming the aggregate or the you know, the whole average, which is pretty interesting, and again that earning's breadth idea.
What's screening well for you guys these days, is are certain industry sectors there a certain factor out there that you guys are focusing on.
Yeah, I mean, I mean it sounds like a broken record. We're still focused on that quality area. You know, we want to be away from kind of more speculative growers. We want to be looking at equal weight in disease, especially kind of those larger cap And I would say just kind of overall, you know, we do have a bias towards industrials versus kind of the overall consumer landscape.
Can I go NERD?
Yeah, definitely.
Okay, Now seeing telab would talk about tail distributions and and the rest of it. What is the shadow out there you see? Is it a margin build up? Is it a leverage build up? Is if you look at all the sleepiness of a Gaussian belt curve distribution and you and I know that's not reality when you look at the quant reality. What's your number one worry right now?
I you know, there's a lot of discussion at the end of last year about the cockroaches in high yield. I'm not the credit strategist, but I know Matt Mish has put out some great work in that front.
He's got a little experience, it's got a.
Little experience, and I would you know, I would lean that direction. One of my key models kind of uses high yield spreads as an input. That has been a very positive sport for the equities markets over the past few years and always kind of when we see that rattle that that normally.
So how do you handle the fact is our four ohe case are grossly non diversified compared to any sense of a recent nineteen seventy four.
Yeah, I think there's kind of two sides to that. One is that has been very supportive of equity valuations over the past number of years, right kind of price ins and discriminate flows just into equity buckets and equity indices has been supportive of, you know, higher valuations over the past couple of years. From the other side, you know, that's if you have options, you can always take a look at them. If not, you know, always talk to a financial advisor.
Valuation a couple of ways to look at it. You just look at the SMP.
You could argue that it's expensive you strip out some of the big camp names, maybe less So.
How do you guys think about just the market valuation.
I'll say we do break out kind of the tech plus code, where from the rest of the S and B five hundred it still does appear a bit expensive. However, you know, when we're talking about those pricing discriment flows, when you have this constant bid to equities overall, that's going to drive a higher evaluation. So it really is going to become a flows dynamic supportive of margins. If we can see the consensus margin growth over the next couple of years, should.
We get them in trouble with ubs complainants? Oh yeah, it's Friday. Let's do that. Sean Simons with the Union Bank of Switzerland. The best research I know on bitcoin is a bank of International Settlements in Geneva. Sean Simon's on bitcoin. You're young enough this weekend, Alexis. Come on. Sean's going to be in a bar somewhere downtown where I never go, and fourteen kids are going to lean forward and say, hey, brain, o bitcoin, what do you think go.
I'm a pass fan. I'm gonna be sitting on my couch on Sunday. I want to be very clear about that. Yeah, you know, one of the things when we see risk and you can talk about Bitcoin, you can talk about what silver has done, you can talk about any of the speculative growers where retail participation has been. You know, there is a fear right when when your personal value
has moved that lower. You know, if we see a reduced retail bid into equities, that is a low dynamic that has been kind of a stalwart in the market over the past number of years, and that could be a shift. You know, if there's not that by the dip mentality from retail institutions having to sell or reposition causes some of the large moves that we've seen and kind of have used to not seeing.
And there's the key phrase, folks having to sell. Selz Simon's thank you so much equity where in quantit ubs Stay with us. More from Bloomberg Surveillance coming up after this.
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It is a perfect time to talk to the gentle lady from Texas Danielle di Martino Booth is definitive feeder Reserve Bank Texas, working for President Fisher years ago over their academics out of the different universities of Texas, She's always taken a different tact and I wanted to get her on for one simple reason. Danielle, how will Chairman worsh be greeted by the presidents not only Boston, Chicago, New York, but the fractious crew of Kansas City and Dallas.
Well, first of all, thank you for having me on this morning, Tom, And that's a really good question. We have seen a much more hawkish tilt come out of the Central Bank district presidents. Lori Logan Bloomberg did a great feature on her recently. She's kind of got her own mark. It's deest that I started in Dallas. She keeps that up and running and she has some very definitive ideas about the balance sheet. I think she would be of the same mind as a future chairsh We
need to shrink that balance r right. I think that most districts presidents would concur with that.
The trick will be execution, Tom, you know.
It's going to be execution. But folks, this is great because you know, Paul, we get people on from London. Bank of England comes out five to four vote and everybody's like, well, well, well, Daniel Di Martino Booth is not well, well well, Daniel, are we going to see five to four votes? Like the Supreme Court with Chairman.
Warsh It's entirely feasible. And again it's going to depend on where he wants to go with the balance sheet. But you know, I'll be keen to listen to Christopher Waller, he's speaking on Monday. I think he should be doing a victory lab given some of the alternative labor market data that we've had over the last few days, and I think that there'll be initial concurrence that the Fed needs to play catch up and do an unusually large rate cut, maybe go fifty bases points in June.
Oh, listen to you. Wait, wait, that's the first we've heard of this. Come on, we've got a chicken, wings of blue cheese here getting ready for the Super Bowl. Are you modeling, Danielle, a fifty beep.
Cut in June?
Oh, certainly, I am. And you saw yesterday when financial conditions and volatility became really acute that the work function on the terminal showed you that we'd gotten all the way up to twenty seven percent probability of a March rate cut. So a lot's going to depend on non farm payrolls Wednesday and CPI next Friday. A lot's going to depend on the upcoming data that we've got coming out. We've also got a second non farm payroll report before the Fed meets again March eighteenth.
And add a little bit of extra.
Spice to your chicken wings.
How she still has a sixty nine percent probability that Powell's going to leave after his chair term ends in May, but that the flip side is that there's a thirty one percent chance that he'll stay. We don't know, and Powell does not have a scheduled speech until that March.
Fmc danielle again, Today was supposed to be jobs Day, but it's not. But we yesterday we got Challenger job cuts largest since I think two thousand and nine, we got initial jobs claims came in higher than expected.
Do you read anything to that data, because.
That would suggest that maybe this labor market perhaps is even weaker than we think.
I think that there are definite warning signs there was a lot of nay saying yesterday that it was concentrated in three companies, But even if you netit those three companies out of the Challenger data, we still had a higher number than we had last January, on top of the lowest January for hiring in data to two thousand and nine. And if you look at the not statistically adjusted initial claims that hopefully weed out a lot of the weather effect, they were also up appreciably on the week.
So we'll see continuing pop up in the following week and let's see what the survey week.
Holds to come.
But companies are definitely more aggressive with the earnings calls. You know, if they feel like they're going to miss in any aspect of that earnings calls, boy they're going to have a layoff announcement that accompanies it.
Interesting, does mister Walsh how does he think about the data? Do you think, I mean one of the concerns that you've voiced and many others in voice that that way this fed is, yes, it's data dependent, but the data that it's dependent upon is really old and backwards looking. Is mister Warsh does he have a different view about that?
Well?
We have to remember that when mister Walsh came on initially as a governor, he was the youngest governor in the history of the FED. So he remains something of a younger, certainly a young chair compared to what we've grown accustomed to.
I say this because he's.
Going to be more open to alternative data sets, and the same way that Christopher Waller has been more open to alternative data sets. He's going to pay attention to the private core in payrolls, which nets out education and healthcare, to see what the real underlying momentum is in the labor market when you net out those recession proof industries that, by the way, completely carried ADP yesterday. Had it not been for that, we'd have had a negative, a much deeper print. Sorry on Tuesday, Yeah.
We'll have to see on that. We'll get to Wednesday. We'll see when you got a slot for you for the Jobs Day and Wednesday. Daniel Di Martino Booth writing up a storm. Thank you, Thank you so much for that. Stay with us. More from Bloomberg Surveillance coming up after this.
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It's Jobs Day, but it's not. We decided to keep our stellar lineup of Jobs Day on a regular Friday. Oldrag Pria miserback here on Wednesday. I believe when we get the work. She's with JP Morgan, who we're thrilled she joined us this morning. Holistic question to Ferole's Weekly Prospects tonight at seven pm, is this a wash affected market? From where you sit in the turret at JP Morgan?
Great question because we've only heard about the wash nomination just a week ago and the market's been extremely volatile.
You know.
I think there was some knee jerk reaction. I mean, he's highly qualified, but it is a committee he's going to he's been very critical about FED policy for the last fifteen years. He's going to have to build consensus. So did we change portfolio positioning because of Wash?
No, we are going to the data rush affected market.
I think that is it's a world turned upside down.
For a lot of people, right.
I think the market, at least on Friday looked at the front end and said, oh, Wash might be more open to cutting rates because he's in the supply side pickup in productivity. The long end got a little nervous, and that I would only pushed back against. I know he's been critical of the balance sheet expansion and QE by the Fed, but a lot of that QI is to provide reserves to the banking system and the FED understands it.
I think when if Wash comes in, he's.
Going to look at the analysis and actually not be able to cut the balance sheet. I don't think he has votes on the committee. So if the market got nervous about the unwind of the FED balance sheet, I think that we can fade. There are other issues this week. Is the AI capex too much, which last year everyone wanted AI capex and now they're saying this might be too much of a good thing. And then is their displacement in the software sector.
So I think the fears have morphed. We've dealt with a lot this.
Year, and just in the equity markets concerned about the capex. As you mentioned, we had Rob Schiffman in yesterday. He covers the TMT space off from a credit perspective. For Bloomberg Intelligence. He says, the bond market's fine with this capex, and the bond market's taken all the paper that's coming at that spreads remain tight on all these deals. So the bond markets saying we're okay with this capex, but the markets not so sure.
Right, So I think a lot will depend if it's six hundred and fifty billion, how much is financed in the bond market.
We saw this with Oracle.
They actually came in with much lower than that fifty billion number, and the books were very well subscribed. But I'm glad you talk about with credit spreads are looking at fundamentals. The fundamentals of the companies that are doing the AI capex are very solid, all those software companies which were all the news this week. You look at the high level of subscriptions, high margins. But I think the question is how much of displacemental versus disruption is
going to happen with AI. What are their earnings? But I think we look at fundamentals of earnings, of leverage ratio, and I think that's why these spreads are where they are. And I think yesterday showed you that fixed income does provide you that ballas to portfolios, and that's why you saw rates fall. And so actually, if I want to be somewhere which is safer, maybe the bonds of those companies might be the safe place.
Oh, listeners selling bands, She's she's taking a kool aid from Bob Michael. There's no question about a priam miser. JP Morgan with us the great lineup this morning, and we welcome all you ninety nine to one FM snack bound Nathan Hager getting ready for the Super Bowl. Good morning, ninety to nine FM. If you can focus this morning in Bloomberg eleven three zero A, New York, across the nation, major major shout out, Serious XM Channel one twenty one
across Canada and across all of America. We really appreciate your support this morning. Let's get back to full faith and credit. Priam isra right now. The first thing I did this morning, I walked in because you told me one day a stupid look at the five years compared to the thirty year bond. It's buttressed up against resistance. Translated in the question what happens if these spreads break out to new steepness? What is that signal?
The spreads are the credit spreads or the curve the curve? Excuse me, So the curve does steep in down.
You're just going to see minus.
There a lot of spreads we spend all day looking at. If the yield curve steepens a lot, I think you should pay attention to that because that's telling you that the economy might be slower or weaker.
We may be transitioning from a low.
Fire low higher to a high fire low higher.
And I think without payrolls it's really hard.
But we did see some data this week that made the market a little nervous about the job market. I mean, we know there's low hiring. If the firing starts to pick up, then the FED is cutting a lot more than what is priced. And we're currently only pricing in two rate cuts this year, so that front end. If the curve steepens, because the front end rates fall, that's a sign that the job market is much weaker.
The FED will.
Absolutely respond, but I would get more nervous about the economy.
Well, that's what we're doing. We're just sitting around waiting for the labor economy to decide what to do.
Yeah, and I don't know I mean, there are some concerns out there, but boy, the headline numbers still look pretty decent.
Here in the fix the comes space here, I see a lot.
Of green on my screen here in year to performance here, following up a strong twenty twenty five.
Where is value in the credits? How much credit risk are you.
Taking versus just sitting on a two year ten year treasury bill.
So we are taking credit risks because we think the economy to your earlier point, there's a lot of cross currents, there's always risks, but the economy looks to be in a strong position. You look at private sector balance sheets, whether it's the consumer side or the corporate side, the fundamentals are very strong, and so we like credit risks, diversified, high quality. We haven't really gone down to the triple
C part of the market. Spreads are so tight that they're not giving you cushion for if things get worse. But I think you know, whether it's investment, great corporate, even high quality, high yield is very attractive in our mind, double be even some single bee staying away from loans given the software exposure. But you know, whether it's securitized credit, mortgage spreads. We love that a year ago they've tightened
a lot. We're not going underweight, but we're not adding to mortgages here securitized credit.
So I think you.
Shouldn't some diversified, high quality credit. Just buy some treasuries as well as a hedge. If the economy is closed.
Down, unfair, it's off your remit. But I'll go there because you're just so damn good at this. The basic idea of everyone is oracle did X billions dollars of paper? What do you presume after the first, the second, the third company puts out billions of dollars of paper? Is the market there to pick it up? Or does it sit on buy Michael's desk.
So I think a lot depends on spreads. So if there's a lot of supply, we expect spreads to widen, and then it might be contractive, you know, given the demand and the books the demand in So I think we're talking ten to fifteen basis points. But I would watch for what are they spending the money on? Are they spending it on productive users? I mean, these are the big questions. We're going to grapple it with oliar and what is the use case you know, is it.
Are we still waiting for that use case or are these companies putting money in and the rest of corporate America is using it. I think that's if that happens, I don't think you'll see much widening in spreads.
But I'm hoping that all.
These CEOs are listening to the discipline of the market, so you have to be careful about how you fund and where you invest this money. Patriots, I'm a Pats fan, but I would.
Say that apologize here for that.
They're both great teams. I'll be watching that along with the Japanese election, but.
Hopefully, oh you are kind of halftime. You're not going to watch bad but now you're going to look at the Japanese election.
I will be well. Fortunately it's a different time zone, so it will.
Be a long day, but it should be fun and hopefully nothing else happens.
Pre Miser, thank you, thank you so much on this job. Say pre miser with us with JP Morgan Asset Management. Stay with us. More from Bloomberg Surveillance coming up after this.
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Boose favorites Alexis Christophers Here, we're very heavy on artificial intelligence. Today. We've covered blue cheese, We've covered chicken wings. Now best for wings high heat, the ninja FOOTI air fryer, Alexis Christopher says it. Let's to talk about.
This hard to beat that?
Now, how do you follow the air friar story?
I think you do it with this.
The Washington Post has a story today about the most dangerous sport at the Winter Olympics.
I saw this thing, So what.
Do you think it might be?
I was wrong.
Yeah, it's not what we think because you think it's the loge going down this ice track at ninety miles an hour on a skinny little you know, sled, or maybe it's the skeleton because you're doing that but just face down. No, it's not. The Number one most injury prone event is ski big air. So this debut the last Olympics. They hit a ramp and then perform high flying acrobatics. Nearly thirty percent of athletes who do it get hurt.
YEP, I mean these guys are insane much how much air they get, It's crazy.
The tricks they put up there are just incredible.
Yeah, and Lindsay Vaughn, by the way, we know she has that torn acl she's still going to ski because she's a beast.
I saw her workout video yesterday where she's lifting serious weight with her knees and stuff.
So I mean, don't mess with Lindsay. No, she's tough.
Also, by the way, Team USA can make history at these Italian Games. We won ten goals back in two thousand and two at the Salt Lay Games. We are we are favorite to what take home twelve golds maybe sixteen, which would be the all time record.
Wow.
All right, I'm excited for these games.
Opening ceremonies to.
The opening ceremonies are like one like Sweeney gets off the show with Scarlette to watch.
Sure absolutely, you know you, Paul?
All right.
There's an exclusive in the Financial Times this morning, the prediction market calshi. We knew it was coming, seeking approval to offer margin trades, so you know, I don't know. I mean it started out you could bet on the oscars, yep, you know, you could bet on other little things.
Like what's going to sports now that's a big issue, big.
Issue, and now financial markets. So they're looking to attract institutional investors with this. Apparently they met with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Don't know if they're going to win approval.
Probably, Well, we got a weekly thing going with Brian Eggers Bloomberg Intelligence. Yeah, seriously, for Eggers is encyclopedic on this. You know, if we can figure it out with his.
People, yau got it's impacting the sports even talk to me, he's so big.
Yeah, exactly.
And now you can you can just bet on the teeniest, tiniest thing within.
A game now that they're starting to regulate that, like well he missed this free.
Throw really in the Super Bowl.
So now they're not they're getting into that because people were actually gaming that situation, like a player would say, oh, I see there's a bet for me to miss his free throw.
I'll make the free throw exactly.
And so they're trying to get away from those in game type things.
So like the betting last night Duke BC, it was like his BC to come back and it was in med. Yeah.
Now it's a tangled web. And so these prediction markets. Now, of course, a new way to gamble on the Super Bowl. I read this on the terminal Traders on Calshi and Polymarket, which is its biggest rival, have swapped more than eight hundred million dollars worth of contracts tied to the Super Bowl so far. All right, let's see, let's go to Hollywood Reporter. They've got this one, and I hope it comes true. Can New York stop ticket scalpers from gouging concert goers?
Oh?
Please make this happen.
It's so hard to do.
A New York State centeror today is going to introduce legislation that, if passed, would place a cap preventing scalpers from reselling tickets for more than their face value.
How about that?
So California did a similar thing yesterday. Believe it or not, Maine is the only state in the US that has managed to implement price caps.
Okay on ticket resales.
Yeah, I mean Live Nation owns Ticketmaster, so they they betray Muster somehow. Yeah, I was right involved in that deal. But it's a surprisingly tofficult to do. With all the electronic gadgetry out there, it's tough to really control who gets the tickets now they've been trying.
It's crazy, and critics have said that these resale caps stand in the way of a free market, but a lot of other people say, listen, this is not property, this is our access into a venue, and you know we should be able to pay mere value.
Very good. We love to see Alexis Christopher say you so much as the newspapers.
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