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Anastasia Moroso she joins us. She's a chief investment strategist at I Capital. Anastasia, we'll get to the markets overall. I want to talk to you about what has been a little bit different tech the private market. I just did a read for Commonwealth.
We go down.
We talked to these Commonwealth folks, these advisors. They're talking about private equity, private credit, hedge funds, is alternative investments. What do you guys see at I Capital in terms of the demand for private investments.
Right, Well, we obviously see a very big pickup in demand for private investments, and anythink that's been the story of ramping up over the last time years. That's how long I Capital has been around, or a little bit longer.
But really in the last three or four years since I've joined, I've seen this immense pickup in demand for alternatives, and I think part of that has been because you know, private investors have been looking at what institutions have been making in let's say private equity, buyout strategies or private credit, and they wanted to expand their portfolios to that.
You know.
Part of the interest also, I think picked up when back in twenty twenty two you saw the sixty forty portfolio that was down seventeen percent, but a lot of these private market strategies held up really well and in
some cases delivered really strong positive returns. So I see an immense demand for alternatives, and we do actually have quarterly flows that we're able to share that we see on our platform where private clients are allocating, and private credit has definitely been an area of focus and area of interest. It's about thirty seven percent of the flows
that we see on the platform. It's a little bit lower than last quarter, but it's still a one trend, which is an up trend that we're seeing in private credit. Private equity is interesting because it's about forty seven percent of the flows that we see on the platform, and that is actually a sizeable pickup from last quarter. So that tells me that investors are seeing the valuation environment stabilize. These questions about well, don't private markets, you know, don't
properly just valuations. I think those questions are now behind us, and investors are feeling comfortable to step into things like private credit. The other thing I would mention, Paul, infrastructure investing has really been attracting a lot of interest. When we look at the flows, we saw initially all the real asset flows go into real estate, but that number has started to pair back as infrastructure investing has picked up.
So I would say tremendous interests. The question is not why alternatives, but how which ones and how much.
Does the trajectory suggest that private credit will exceed private equity at some point?
I mean, I think it's on that trajectory, but I really, you know, can see the two being neck and neck, because the truth is they serve a different purpose in the portfolio. And if you look at public equities and you think about forward looking returns, maybe they're a little bit lower than we've seen in the last you know, ten some years. So that's why I go to private equity.
That's your potential for extra returns, and when you think about private credit, that's really your potential for extra income in the portfolio. So I think the two serve very different purposes, but investors are increasingly seeing them as an extension of what can I do in equities and what can I do in credit?
Who are those investors? It's not mom and pop.
Well, maybe not mom and pop just yeah, but I will say, you know, look, you know that the typical allocation for institutions is about forty percent, maybe in some cases fifty percent. The typical allocation for an ultra high
network ultra high net worth investors about fifteen percent. But if when you look at financial advisors that alternative fifteen fifteen percent, Yes, but when you look at some of the smaller investors they may work within RIA advisor that you were mentioning, the allocations tend to be much smaller. And the stats that I see is at thirty six percent of advisors, those RIA advisors allocate to alternatives, and if they do, that percentage tends to be something like
five percent. So there's a tremendous amount of interest and potential for future growth in this adoption of alternatives, because most advisors we talk to in survey do see those allocations rising. And you know, John, it's not yet every single investor that has alternatives in their portfolio. But that's something that we're really focused on in I Capital is how can you bring down the minimums, How can you
reduce the friction? You know, how can you build structures that are suitable for individual investors?
So are you concerned about the rising allocation to all turners because they are higher risk because of the in part through the lower liquidity. Are you concerned about that? How do you talk about that with your capital client?
Well, I would say there are different kinds of risks, and you know, there's a mark to market risk and there's a getting whipsod in the markets based on how many rate cuts we're projecting or not. And from that standpoint, I would actually argue the public markets may be riskier because there's this sentiment factor, there is this technical dislocation that's very much possible in public markets on a daily basis.
So from that perspective, I would argue some of the alternatives that don't have to get marked to market every single day may actually be a better risk adjusted return, you know, part of your portfolio. But you bring up a good point, of course, which is the liquidity, and you know, yes, individual investor does need liquidity. Do they need one hundred percent liquidity No, you know, but are
they able to take some illiquidity risk? Probably yes. So that's why we don't see the allocations going to forty or fifty percent for individuals as they are for institutions, but up to a twenty percent allocation. I think that's how you square that risk of having the liquidity but at the same time giving yourself potential for higher income, for higher potential returns and also diversification.
Does the word private mean opaque when it comes to investing and just about everything.
Look, sometimes that is the perception, but I wouldn't say that's the reality. And you know, private means it doesn't get traded on a day to day basis. Private in the case of private credit, for example, means that most of these are by and whole long term securities that are meant to be held until maturity. And yes, there's this perception that because you know, you can't see the mark every single day, you know, there's lack of transparency. But the truth is that these assets do get valued
on a quarterly basis. These assets are audited on an annual basis, and you know, one of the things that we're really focused on it. Capital is bringing that transparency by putting those performance numbers in front of investors so they're readily able to see them. And look, they're always going to be with a lag, because that's just the mechanics of private markets. You have to get the valuations
and you have to get the reporting in. But what I can say, over the last fifteen years, if you look at the sixty forty portfolio relative to all the different private market strategies, most of those private market strategies have handedly outperformed the sixty to forty. For example, buy out, growth equity delivering your turns of fifteen fourteen or fifteen percent, private credit about nine percent. So it's been a very compelling place.
To be tying in people looking for higher returns in the alternative space. I'm going to tie that in with a report we came out of Goldman Sachs earlier this week where they were forecasting much lower returns for public equity markets over the next decade versus this prior decade, maybe you know, low single digits. They were talking about thirty percent.
What did you think of that?
You know, look, there's a lot of variables that go into that, and in fact the report site's five different variables. But the thing about that is they're most likely treated as static variables versus something that's going to evolve. And of course, on the surface, it makes a lot of sense. And when equities are trading at twenty two times multiple, if that's your starting point, the forward looking returns mechanically
a little be lower, you know, based on that. You know, there's also this concern about the concentration risk and the max seven companies that maybe are not going to be able to deliver. You know, Look, I do think returns because of valuations and equities should be somewhat lower than they have been in the past. But valuation aside, the US economy is most likely still going to continue to grow,
It's most likely still going to continue to innovate. So I think if companies deliver that seven to ten percent earnings growth despite valuations, which maybe bring the overall returns down a little bit, I still think we would be towards the top of the range, which is about seven percent.
Nastacia, thank you so much for joining us. Anastacia Amoroso. She's a chief investment strategist at Eye. Couple of joinings here in a Bloomberg in and Director Broker studio.
You're listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Catch us live weekday afternoons from seven to ten am. Easter Listen on Apple car Play and Android Auto with a Bloomberg Business app, or watch us live on YouTube.
David Gerrow joins us now one of as many duties he's with a big take, providing intellectual input there on our politics and out links center for our economy. David, excuse me, I got their plague, folks. What can I say, David, as simple as I can. Aren't elections supposed to be close?
They are, but we really haven't had one this close, or at least as close as these polls indicate, for for a long time. So in nineteen sixty, well yeah, you look. You look at the latest Bloomberg Morning Console poll for one for the other. The margin of arya here one percent, so just really on a knife's edge, and you know there shouldn't be a lot here. That's surprising to regular listeners to this program or any sentient beings in this country today. I mean, we have known
that this raise has been an close. This is kind of confirmation that's the case in these seven swing states.
Eleven pm, November fifth.
Are we going to know anything I work in that weekend.
We're working that week and I think that's safe to say. Now, Look, it's it's likely to be a race. It's going to take a long time to get a final result on and so I'm going to be in Pennsylvania for election night itself, and I've been in touch with a lot of election offices around the state. Many of them are just emphasizing how careful they're going to be about getting
these counts done. Yes, we're going to get on official results from them the night of, but it's going to take days, I think, to get those confirmed, based on just the procedures that they have in place, but also just how much attention is being paid to this. And then we know, of course, there are legions of lawyers in the wings who are waiting to pounce on anything that might be seen as untowited or wrong.
What people engaged in this ask me, is Georgia that seems to be the You mentioned Arizona weeks ago, but Georgia. Trump is ahead in Georgia. Are we supposed to be surprised?
That is probably one of the closes this races of these seven and has been for a long time. I think that it's a must win for the former president. It's one that Vice President Harris would like to win. She's going to be there today with former President Obama and with Bruce Springsteen for a big event. Donald Trump was there last night for a big rally, So they're investing a lot in it. This is a state that has early voting. People have been going to the polls
already and the turnout has been incredibly strong. So to summarize, very important for both of these candidates of more paramount importance. I think for former President Trump, what do we.
Know about down ballot?
Is it as close there?
Don ballot?
They explained Reggae like, no one exactly.
Is it as close to their David, It's very close, and it's going to take some time as well to kind of find out what the composition the balance is going to be in both the House and the Senate. You know, it's interesting you watch how these rallies unfold. H Donald Trump isn't one to sort of envelop or elevate those down ballot from him. Yes, they show up at his rallies but that's of course not the star of the show. They're not the star of the show.
You see Vice President Harris on stage with a number of these candidates for Senate and how especially in these contested races, so you know, both parties are paying close attention to how all of this shakes out. And you look at that map of the United States, we focus on not just swing states or swing districts, but sort of swing neighborhoods. Almost a lot of those dovetail with these very hotly contested congressional races.
Do celebrities matter? Do people actually vote? Because Lisa Mateo's on stage of someone I would?
I think that, you know, we're seeing this push now twelve days out to get people off the couch and to the polls, or to go to the mailbox to mail in that ballot. And so I think that the excitement surrounding these events elevated by the fact that Eminem's there, Bruce Springsteen is there, or Jason Aldan down in Georgia.
I mean, both of these candidates are leaning on that, and it kind of is emblematic of the fact that they want to create excitement, then they want to reach out to people who again might have some apathy or in we about this note this has gone for what eight nine months, and are getting just tired of the whole process.
What I understand, David, it's a story about getting out the vote. Does either side have any particular strength relative to the other in terms of getting out the vote?
We know much more about the details of and the composition of the team that Kamala Harris has in place. She's raised more than a billion dollars in this campaign, which is just extraordinary and what could art kind of reprehensible as well. That's where we are in American politics. That money matters so much. But we know that she's deploying that across this country, yes, in those swing states, but beyond hiring staff, spending a lot of money on advertisements,
both digital and television traditional advertising. The Trump ground game is I don't want to say it's more secret. We just have less information on what that's like. They have confidence that they have it, but again they raise less money than the vice president.
Harris has your great chart, Nancy Cook's great, great chart here for a big take shows the margin of error. Clearly. It tells me this poll's total beloaning because we have no idea what we're doing within the margin of error. What did you learn from twenty twenty two about margin of era where so many got it wrong?
Well, I mean I learned a lot from twenty twenty two. You know, it's a little different because it wasn't a presidential election, but I think that there is people are right to be skeptical of all of the polling that we have, and of course ours is one of many, and I think a difference this year is just how many polls we have, how inundated we are with them, and how important it is just kind of look at
them all in complements. So the particular special sauce that we have is since October of twenty twenty three we've really just focused on these seven swing states and kind of charted both how these candidates are doing, of course it was Joe Biden until it was Kamala Harris, how they've been doing, but also what issues are important to voters.
And I think as we've seen you look at you mentioned that chart, there's another great chart there that that Nancy Cook and her colleagues have made that shows just how the economy has been the paramount issue for voters from the very beginning by such a wide margin. Beneath it our immigration and abortion, but it is the economy that these voters care about. I think that's something that stands out to me in our poll. That's something that I can I can get a lot of credence in
from from the pole. You know, the key question is which kenid do you trust to handle the economy going forward? Fifty percent of responds to that poll in those swing states, likely voters say it's Donald Trump. Forty five percent say Kamala Harris. You know that that has to frustrate her. At the same time, she's got to be happy that number is higher than it was for Joe Biden. She has made up some of the ground that he had lost on that issue.
Paul, I mean, you know, I'm not the scientist on his girl is, but on taxes they're equal, which I did not expect.
No, No, it's it's interesting here, David. I mean Elon Musk, that's been interesting to watch. Do you think he's had any influencer impact here, because he's certainly been high.
Profile and make some news.
I should I should have fed on that. When yeah, yeah, when you when you when you asked about celebrities, Sure brought that up. What's the j gonna do cut to the check on this, on this sweep steakes issue. Yeah, I think that they're looking at it pretty seriously. So those who haven't followed this. Elon Musk has said he'll give a million dollars a day to voters Swing states who sign a petition saying that they pledge fealty to the First and Second Amendments. And he's you know, people
have appeared with these sizeable checks. I mean he's giving out he's giving out these million dollar amounts. You know, what's illegal is paying someone to vote. And what he seems to be trying to do is skirt that by saying I'm not doing that. I'm having I'm having them sign a petition. But you asked about his role. I could have talked about it when you asked about celebrity Tom. But it's it's he's playing a huge role in Pennsylvania. He spent seventy five million dollars in that state. He's
sort of set up an operation there. He's held town halls. He is trying to be this link one of many that Donald Trump has to the bro vote these young men. And we see Donald Trump tomorrow going to sit down with Joe Rogan who has a wildly, wildly popular podcast What way more popular than Bigger Than the Bigger Than the Big Tip Fight Droves And and that is the audience he's trying to target. They were a young man who looks.
Is the true David Ger that missus Barr is out in a street corner in Pennsylvania waiting for Eloud to stop buying with million dollar check.
I cannot confirm or deny that, and you know I'll follow up on that.
Okay, David Girl, Thank you so much.
Great analysis and wat to be here.
Folks at charts are hugely informative, particularly over this foolishness and reality of the margin of error.
Yeah, wild raising.
This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Listen live each weekday starting at seven am Eastern on applecar Play and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station, Just Say Alexa, playing Bloomberg eleven thirty address.
Now soberly and somber after hitting the ball deep the left field with Tesla Dan Ives joins us Out, senior equity analyst at web Bush Securities. Okay, I got a moonshot Dan on the bullmark of Tesla from fifty to four hundred down it goes, and it's been in a trading range. Was the announcement that you predicted last night? Is that enough to reinvigorate a bull market in Tesla?
Oh?
Yeah, Look, I think Aaron Judge like performance. I mean the margins that we saw, that's a massive rebound and now starts the point where we're gonna see margins bike back up. Price cuts have subsided, but the out for next year time twenty to thirty percent. That's that's basically double what anyone expects. The bullmarket in Tesla I believe has begun.
Okay, Dan, it's just like regular season, Aaron Judge, or playoffs, Division Series, World Series Aaron Judge, Which Aaron.
Judge thinks, I think this is regular season. Goot, Aaron Judge, I think this this is Tesla getting their footing back, right. I mean, you know, you see a lot of negativity obviously come out of Robot tax today.
It's been a tough year.
I think you're seeing a resurgence now this is sort of this the second chapter of this growth story plan out.
Hey, Dan, what do you think investors are really focused on now? When you think about Tesla? Is it the you know, automotive gross margin? Is that the Robotaxi is at the AI angle that Elon's been trying to push for the last several quarters. Where is the focus for investors these days?
Yeah, But I think in the near term it's really it's about margins. You need to see margins get back toward twenties. I mean, you can't have a mid teens and I think that's what we saw last night. Then it's really the delivery growth in China, which now just had their best quarter ever. But in terms of the longer term growth, this is an AI story. Autonomous must give actually a lot of details on cybercabin, some other issues.
Remember a lot came out of Robotaxi bars. We actually thought it was one of the top three events we've ever been at, you know, in twenty five years. This is an autonomous AI play. I believe it's the most undervalued AI plan market for.
All of our listeners in viewers, Dan, I seriously, this is important. Should we care about super secret speculation from some iPhone accountable iesore on the Asian Pacific rim or should we focus on the fact I've had to buy three iPhones sixteens in the last two weeks.
Yeah, we mean you've talked about this for many years, me and Paul and I just I disagree with this analysis. And I think many have been wrong on Apple for really the last four or five years, trying to kind of do gymnastics to get negative.
We've been Asian two times in the last eight weeks.
I believe this will be the strongest iPhone year ever when it's all said and done.
And I think trying to kind of like pick the.
Spots yell fire in a crowd theater, I get it, but I just I don't see it.
I believe this.
Is this is the start of a move toward a three hundred dollars stock and Apple.
So when you said you've been in Asia, and that's really important, Dan, because a lot of folks, I think rightfully, so kind of say one of the big drivers here are the big swing issues for Apple is China not only at twenty percent of their revenue, but it's obviously a huge part of their supply chain. How do you you China and in Apple's positioning in China versus what are some you know, really strong local competitors.
Yeah, I mean, look, there's one hundred million iPhones in China in a window of an upgrade opportunity to just forget Ai. When you look what's happening in China. I mean, I think that you're gonna have China growth even we're off tough comms. It's going to be up anywhere from eighteen to twenty five percent over the next called three four quarters. When that all plays out, that's how you're now going to get to street numbers that have to move higher for Apple, not lower. And services is going
to be a huge driver there. And I think that's why we're looking a four trillion dollar mark ap in Apple by early next year.
So talk to us about that services business, Dan, because that's something.
That costs to me exactly wanted to go.
Exactly, Tom. I mean, a lot of you know, bulls hang their hat the long term hat on the services revenues. You know, roughly twenty percent of revenue. It's got nice margins to that revenue stream. How do you model that out? The services side of the Apple Store.
If you model out services just as a separate business, you're talking about what's going to be one hundred and twenty five hundred and fifty billion dollar revenue stream next three four years with double the margroos margins of the hardware business.
And I believe the valuation.
For the services business alone is two trillion dollar valuation just for services.
Well, this is key, you know. And then I was just over in Europe and I really saw in ear full of the Apple ecosystem being used by all different classes of people as well on a global basis. What is the margin of the ecosystem?
I mean, look, if you look, if you look today in terms of the margin of the ecosystem, it's basically it's thirty. They've essentially increased their margin profile two to three hundred BIPs globally in terms of what they're being able to do at scale and scoop. I think that when even what we've seen in Europe, I think the biggest issue right now is when you think about AI right and you think about what they're driving that is going to be a US and essentially Asia and specifically
China centric story for the next eighteen months. That are the group core growth drivers for Apple.
What's your single best idea right now? Everybody and everything, but what's the Danai single best idea right now?
It's been the messy of AI Polunteer, best pure play AI game out there that it's that that continues to be our best idea along of course with Apple, Mirosoft Tesla talk to.
Us about Palenteer. A lot of people don't know what that is. I'm going to ask you just what do they do and why is it your best idea?
Yeah? I mean Volunteer is what makes them so unique.
When you think about AI and you got Godfather of Ai Jensen a video, the way that you actually build out use cases for enterprises is pound Teer.
So when we think about AI and you think about.
The AI revolution, they're is a software company that essentially builds use cases on top of what video what the hyperscalers build. That's why we believe this is just you know, to me, it's one of the most unique memes I've ever seen.
Dennis, Thank you so much. Congratulations on Tesla. Must admit victory left there from mister Rives this morning.
He is at what Bush.
This is the Bloomberg surveillance podcast. Listen live each weekday starting at seven am Eastern on applecar Play and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also watch us live every weekday on YouTube and always on the Bloomberg terminal.
Geopolitics, they are meeting in Washington, d C. As we speak, A lot on their plate, as they discussed global geopolitical events, obviously in the Middle East, in Ukraine, in Asia, A lot on the plate. You think about climate change is another global issue. A lot's going on there. Nadia Kaledino joins us. She is the president of the European Investment Bank. She joined us from a Washington, DC bureau. Nadia, thanks so much for joining us here. You're down in Washington,
DC at the IMF. Could you give us a sense or what are some of the key topics that you guys are focused on down there in Washington.
Well, it's a pleasure to be here, and indeed, a lot on our fleet. As you were saying, there's been a lot of discussion about the economic outlook and the resilience, the remarkable resilience of the global economy, but also the current risks derived from the geopolitical tensions, uncertainty and fragmentation of global markets, and we will also be talking a lot about climate action, climate finance and how to support most vulnerable countries around the world.
I have a dumb question for you, Nadia. Could you explain exactly what the European Investment Bank is and does?
Yes? No, of course, the European Investment Bank is one of the European institutions. It was created when the European institutions were created, you know, decades ago, and it is the largest multilateral financial institution in the world, with a six hundred billion balance sheet. We do ninety percent of our investments inside the EU, financing all the key infrastructures from energy trains, also innovative investments in frontline companies from
tier technologies, and ten percent outside the EU. But I mean eight to nine billion euros a year, so we're a very important partner of the multilateral family.
Nadia, in terms of infrastructure, talk to us about the European Investment Bank and its view on what's transpiring in Ukraine. What is the EIB doing now and then in the years ahead for the good folks of the Ukraine.
Yes, we're currently probably the most important investment partner to the Ukrainian government. We had a round table yesterday where there was a very strong support. I was impressed by the very strong statements that were made around the table
to support Ukraine. Our support to Ukraineism wavering is about peace and security for Europe, of course, and the EIB is investing right now, focusing and supporting Ukraine in the run up to the winter, so repairs and resilience of energy infrastructures and going beyond the energy sector, we're supporting investments in housing, schools, education and also private companies. We just launched an export credit guarantee facility which has been
oversubscribed for European companies trading with Ukraine. So we will continue to support Ukraine now during the war and hopefully very soon in the reconstruction.
What is the European Green Deal and what's your investment there?
Well, more than fifty percent of our annual investments go to the green transition, and that's why we're consolidating our role as the Climate Bank. And this has to do with the energy transition we just discussed, but also the deployment of net zero technologies from green hydrogen to other green fuels, and also making sure that Europe continues to be one of the leading players worldwide when it comes to green tech, and I think that we're getting on
with it. The private sector is also getting on with it. Just yesterday we released a very interesting investment survey that shows that European companies, more than sixty percent of European companies are actually investing in green technologies, and I think that's very good news, so that we can really move to a net zero economy and make climate and competitiveness just two sides of the same coin.
Nadie, across the twenty seven countries in the European Union, where are the biggest concerns for you right now? Were you maybe spending most of your time or more of your time?
Well, we invest in the twenty seven member states, and we are investing very heavily right now in this green transition to make sure also that Europe becomes strategically independent. You know, the war in Ukraine has shown us that being dependent on other parts of the world and in
particular fossil fuel producers, it's a vulnerability for Europe. And so there's a strong determination to make the green transition a European success, and we're very much focusing here, but of course we're also stepping up our support to europe security and defense industry, digitalization, social infrastructures, trying to make sure that we continue to be a prosperous part of the world and also protecting our values.
And how dependent is your investment portfolio on US policy, specifically the outcome of the election here.
Well, we obviously will continue to be closely partnering with whoever is leading the US government, and the transatlantic relationship I think is quite strategic and it is a win win relationship both to the US and to Europe. So we have every interest to continue to build close ties from the cultural point of view, from the economic and financial point of view, and of course from the security and defense point of view too, And that doesn't influence
really our investment activities at the EIB. We will continue to be a very important investment player inside the EU and of course around the world.
So as Europe I think, adapts to the new world where Russia is much more of an adversary than maybe they were prior to the invasion of the Ukraine. Are most of the member states in the EU are they operating as if at least for the foreseeable future, Russia will not be in any way shape or form an economic partner.
Well.
Right now we're focusing very much in supporting Ukraine. I hope that these war ends as possible, and that we can see how the new global order is shaping up in a manner which is more constructive. What we're seeing in the last years is growing tensions, growing wars, and that obviously is not good for the global economy, and that is not good for the citizens perception of stability and happiness, if I may put it this way. So I really hope that we can move to a more
constructive approach throughout the world. From the perspective of the European Investment Bank and from the perspective of the multilateral development institutions more broadly, that we're gathering here in Washington these days, I think that we're showing that we're walking
the talk. We're becoming as effective as possible, working as a system, co operating closely together so that we can play the role that we're called to in supporting global stability and also bringing prosperity and protecting most vulnerable countries around the world. I think that these shows that together were stronger and that cooperating we can get further and faster than by attention and conflict.
Of course, Nadia, thank you so much for joining us. We really appreciate you taking some time to speak with us. Nadia Calvino, President of the European Investment Bank. The IMF is meeting in Washington, DC this week and obviously a lot on the Clayton in terms of geopolitics and financing.
This is the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast, available on Apple, Spotify, and anywhere else you get your podcasts. Listen live each weekday, seven to ten am Eastern on Bloomberg dot com, the iHeartRadio app, tune In, and the Bloomberg Business app. You can also watch us live every weekday on YouTube and always on the Bloomberg terminal