The Great Posen/Ryding Debate

and of course on the Bloomberg. We like to do history with David Folcus Landau of Deutsche Bank. Francie Kwan, London. I'm Tom keenan New York. Let's get right to it morning. Mustard b Virto Gallo and Algebrath writing up a Bloomberg View column. And this is on the Great Minsky of Washington University St. Louis and Columbia. We may be approaching

a second Minsky moment. By keeping races at record low levels, central banks have made it easier for inefficient firms to survive as an a rising tide that lifts all boats. Last week, Cherry Yellen said a financial crisis is unlikely to happen, and David Folkarts Landau's lifetime if he were alive, If Minsky was alive, Minsky would be shaking his head. Shaking his head in London. Is David Folkard's Landau. This speaks to shocks to instabilities out there is sovereign debt,

the growing debt, the size of the debt. Is that a possibility to be an instability. It's that combined with the liquidity overhanged us in the system. I mean, you

have to look at that together. Uh, there's no doubt I think at this point to say that we cannot foresee if the financial crisis doing our lifetime strikes me as not having learned the lessons of the last thirty years as long as I've been in this profession, that's been the crisis every eight years, starting at eighty two and let Him Dead crisis, and on and on and on, Tequila crisis, Asian crisis, and two thousand one and two thousand seven, so and none of those, none of those

we had ever anticipated. All we can't quite see our way through how a crisis might happen. And so I think that leads me to be quite cautious about where we are right now. We've got a twelve trillion central bank overheaded liquidity, we have almost a forty to forty

increase in the government debt outstanding of the major countries. Um. So yeah, and and we have become very very used to the calming influence of quee uh and so to think that there's no no hidden dangers lurking in the system as rates go up, I think it is is fulati who's the adult in the room that can actually get us away from the dangers or preempt the dangers

that you're just mentioning. It is the FED. I believe that the FED will lead the way with a gradual rate increase, with very careful communications and with a very good understanding of the risk and how the system work. When I think of the current fedboard with yelling and people like stand Fisher, um, there's little they do not understand about this. Yes, but I think it is important to recognize that the rates, including at the short end but also at the long end, at a historical low,

and they and they're completely out of whack. If you look at the numbers in the UK, for instance, the UK ten years ago at the last increase and you look at the constellation now of unemployment rates information and so they're much they're much more calling for an increase in in rate increases now years ago. Yeah, we're not doing it. We got to leave it there, David focused Land, are generous with your time to thank you so much.

Look forward to seeing you in New York. Um, we are exceptionally lucky in the next half hour to have with us John writing of our d Q Economics, he has defined the debate since the financial crisis began with sharp analysis of central bank policy in the American economy. In a special treat this morning, to have with us Adam Posen, the head of the Peterson Institute, his public service to the Bank of England, and arguably with Richard Clarida, are two experts on the relationship of Germany to the

United States. Adam posing let me begin with you with this g twenty meeting. How will President Trump be greeted by this Germany you've studied for decades. Thank you for having me on tom And in terms of Germany, we saw the big signal already a couple of days ago. Chancellor Merkel in Hall he campaign and speech materials officially stopped preferring to the United States as a friend. Now

that sounds pretty penny anti. But for Merkel, who's a confirmed Atlantis, who's an internationalist, and for Germany especially, that's a big shift. So there's gonna be wariness. There isn't going to be confrontation. Maybe we have a generational shift out opposing with a funeral for a helmet call. Last week, I was quite taken by Bill Clinton's comments as well. How will Mr Trump be greeted? Do you just assume there will be protests honest travels across the continent of Europe.

I think the Bill Clinton speech was wonderful in this case, and it obviously is falling on deaf ears both in Washington and Hamburg. Um. I think there will be protests. They're always protests at eachwenties these days. But Mr Trump, particularly on climate change, it'll get worse. So John writing with this, you know, Johnny's wonderful to have you here. The tenth anniversary of the financial crisis. We're beginning our coverage of that. You know, you notice coordinated chit chat

last week. Is banks coordinated? Their forward guidance is a monetary policy of Europe and the United States in sync or do you still look at them as separate beasts. Well, I don't think it was coordinated in the sense that there was any agreement to coordinate, but the message is clear, and I think that you're previous guest exactly the Dodge

Banks Econmers was right. There's this large central bank overhang. Um, there are potential financial risks building, and it's a theme that all at least a lot of the central bank, particularly Bank of England d CB and of course leading the FED is on because there are risks building. You had a headline story today about problems in Norway's housing market.

I mean that's maybe maybe a small thing there. There's Venezuela, there's Argentina issuing a hundred a year bond, as if we hadn't seen Argentina default with a few times within the last couple of decades. So, um, I think there is a feeling that central banks need to get on with the balance sheet and start reducing the size of debtness health Yeah, Adam, do do you worry about the

central bank policies and policy mistakes red scene? I think, unfortunately, everything your guests just said, and most of what focused land out said is totally wrong. Um, the FED is going to continue tightening for a bit. The ECB and Bank of England came out of the b I S meeting saying talking tough, but they're not gonna do it. Um,

then there's no reason for them to talk. At the Bank of England, there's an argument on the macro prudential side that there's huge imbalances in terms of savings and UH real estate and credit in the UK specifically, but that's what the macro prow the Financial Policy Committee supposed to deal with, so interest rates don't have to do it. And given the inflation and other problems in the UK, I think they'll be reluctant to move ECB even more so.

Voidman is talking because he's running for ECB president, not because there's no need for policy change. UH. FED is also going to basically wimp out, probably starting next spring. And finally, all this talk about I saw folkas landa you tweeted was talking about the pain or your guests just talked about Argentina. Let's get real. Argentina may be a very foolish thing to buy a hundred year bond in, but it's not gonna affect anybody if anything happens in Argentina.

Al right, John needs the right of reply because posing John Toles says you're completely wrong, Well, time will tell and uh as focused and everybody. People fail to anticipate the next financial crisis, and they come along every so often, he said, every eight years. I don't know that there's necessarily that rhythmic cycle to it, but nevertheless, we do have a habit of ignoring the lessons of the previous crisis. And here we are coming upon the tenth anniversary of

the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression. Um. But it's the wrong lesson, guys. I mean, it's not about mon terry policy tightness. It's about financial supervision laxity and regulatory laxity. And in the data, David David's assertion about the every eight years, which I agree with you is a little too rhythmic, is misleading. If you go to the run Art Rogue offer the i m F data set, there's negative auto correlation of financial crisis. Look at Japan, Canada, Sweden.

Once you've had a financial crisis, you usually don't have one for decades. Look at the US after the thirties. But so I think people are chasing ghosts. I would just saying, but the problem with macroprudential is it's an unused tool in it's not even clear what the tool is. I remember being in an Atlanta FED conference and the former tragedy of Secretary Paul Rubens said the reality of

macropudential policy is that there is no reality. Um so again it's about monitoring, trying to pick up the vibrations. But you have all this liquidity in the system, and that does encourage mistake. Let's go to this liquidity doesn't do anything. That's the whole point of the last in years we're dealing here with with wonderful economic theory for a Wednesday, let me get back control of this. Is Adam Posing steals the shows he's been known to do.

Adam Posing is about Duley Garber and dfl versus a lot of people like you that really disagree with flow analysis has to do folks with stock and flow, and we're not gonna get into it. What I want to say, Adam Posing is the overlay that John writing in dfl C is an odd fixed income market. Do you have confidence at central banks can find a stable trajectory from where interest rates are now, both on a nominal and a real basis, as I fell to things, Tom, and

I'm sorry to be over stepping with the stuff. The first first thing is, uh that in the short term forecast, and that was where I was primarily different distinguishing from David, and that I just don't think they're going to do very much. But in the second point, if things prove unstable because of it'll be because of real reasons, like the collapse of productivity growth in the UK or the collapse of wage growth in the U S and many other countries. That is what will destabilize things. It's not

going to be central banks tightening. The central is just followers. Do you see wage growth occurring and will we observe that? Friday and the Job's Report interview after your interview, I don't see people talking about appropriate wage growth for politicians or central bank heads. Mm hmm. Well again it's sort of stock and flow. I mean, on a rate basis,

there's a legitimate case to be made. I thought, I don't think it's open and shot, but there's a legitimate case to be made that wages are finally picking up a bit in the US almost in line with a very flat Philips curve, and so unemployment is gonna stop falling, wages will go up a small amount. That's the flow basis.

The stock is. Remember that the wage growth in the US and number of other countries with exceptions like Germany UM has been very poor for over a decade, and so if you're going to catch up, then it's a problem. But but on the subject, But on the suguct wage growth. Productivity growth in the US has been very poor for the last ten years, and our analysis suggests the primary reason for that is inadequate capital spending UM. And so wage growth isn't out of line at all with what

the economy is producing. And now if we have wage increases ahead of productivity gains, that's going to continue to squeeze profits and undermine the capital spending story. So my concern isn't that wage growth is too low. My concern is productivity growth is too low, which is the real underlying reason behind the poor wage gains. Yeah, except the two things. First is the profit rate has been going up for years, so the idea that profits are being

squeezed is wrong. So you're right, the wage growth in US has been lead some productivity, so we don't expect big wage growth. And he since wage growth is continued, productivity has been lousy. You're right, so we shouldn't expect big wage growth, but there's still been additional profits going up. And the second thing is it's not just the investment cycle. The causality runs the other way. The reason people aren't

investing because they don't see the productivity growth. What I love about this is the two of you are lightening up on emails. Thank you for the many responses in here. Here's partial score folks writing seven pos in five. We'll see if we can come back and have dr post better time here. Well, we'll see. You know it's great. This is what we love about Bloomberg Surveillance, A debate that's out there. Brunt you by Bank of America, Mary Lynch.

With virtual reality, virtually everything will change. Discover opportunities in a transforming world via a mL dot Com slash VR, Mary Lynch, Pierced Fenteran Smith Incorporated. Let's bring in Mega Green. Let's get right to it this morning. Mega Green is with manual life, looking at not only the international economy, but maybe focus here more in the US economy as well, which corner, Megan, good morning, is cherry yelling painted into within the many themes of domestic economics. How has she

painted herself into a corner? Is it about wage growth? I don't think it is about wage growth. I think right now actually a lot of about instlation UM. And I'll be interested to see what comes out in the minutes later today on the effllency discussion around inflation, because it it has been pretty paltry recently that says they're looking through it but um, but maybe they shouldn't be UM. So we'll learn more about their discussions around that. And

I do think that is driving a lot. I do think that the fat is painted into a corner though I'm not not cherry yelling spec aglieve. But the set is um in terms of starting to shrink their balance sheet before Terry Ellen's term is up next year early next year. So I do you think that they will probably get that process started because they would like it to be automatic and transparent UM and already running by

the time that she leaves, so that it can't be reversed. Yeah, And within all of this, how critical is the jobs report? This Friday, and I don't mean the unemployment rate, I mean just the whole thing, and also the wage dynamics as well for someone like you, is it or does it really matter for July UM. I always think that you know, each individual jobs reports one data point UM,

so it's not worth obsessing over UM. But I would say that the trend going into this job's report is all age growth UM, which which in theory, if we had strong wage growth, it would feed into inflation data and the set would be hitting its dual mandate UM. And it's not now because even though unemployment is a low, inflation is looking pretty bad. And I just don't see any reason to fact that we will see stronger wage

growth this time around. UM. Everything you had a single data point of good wage growth, you know, analysts will all say, well, now, finally a wage growth coming in because the labor market is so tight UM, and it never lasts, and UM, we're gonna back to continue. So I think will continue to be pretty bad wage growth. Most of our jobs being added in really low wage,

low our sectors. And that's partly because what we consume now these these mostly services which tend to be low wage, low hour um jobs and also because we have such a glut of cheap labor globally, So these are big kind of global drivers UM that aren't going to change month to months. Megan Green coourse with that manual Life based in Boston, and Megan, let me ask you about what we could learn today from the Federal Reserve from

their last meeting. Now, I guess three weeks ago about the balance sheet, we were talking with John Riding at the top of the show about timing. Is there more to it than that? What can we learn about, say, their their composition of the unwined So I think we know a bunch of details now, all that the caps, for example, how they plan to make it as transparent

and automatic as possible. I really do think timing is the key thing we can learn about the balance sheet, specifically this afternoon, UM, but I think there are a few other key things to look at. I mentioned earlier, you know, the discussion around how they're really looking at inflation, but also financial stability, which they haven't really talked about publicly, but they've got to be concerned about given that, you know, US equities just continue to score even though policy isn't

coming through. Economic growth isn't coming through to back it up. So there should be a big question about our our evaluation is going to catch up with the markets or is there gonna inc on our surveillance feed. Right now, the President of the United States walking across the tarmac, David Gura, this is his second big trip. Mrs Trump with him as well as they go to Air Force one m the entourage, I would say measured, maybe a lot of people on board right now. The President goes

up the stairs. They don't they don't have a walkway like we do. They get the stair to the yeah, to the Gulf Stream. It's easier, easier entry for us into that into that plane. But he's off to ward cycle speaking for tomorrow for the Gulf Stream. We just got one of the little plastic step things over at cost highly portable. President waving. Now the traditional wave is it begin what's sort of it's a sort of wave. There's a wave, there's more of a wave by the

brother there there we go. Now the third wave. We got the presidential wave and you know, speaking to France and the choir, Matt Miller with coverage of the G twenty meetings. In the meeting with Mr Prutin scheduled. I believe I could say that it'll be interesting to see a little he's got to be focused on North Korea. Megan on on the issue of the G twenty. Do we expect much to be discussed or to come out

of this centering on economics? Is this going to be squarely about geopolitics and less so about the economic picture? So I think that's right. I think the focus will be on geopolitics. We might get something out on trade, which is you know, regularly a focus of these twenty meetings these days, UM, but I think classics will probably overshadow at Let me ask you a bit about sort of what we're seeing it comes to the consumer in the US. Has the picture of the US consumer improved

at all? What are the indications you're looking at to see how the consumers doing so? All of the confidence data for the consumer looks fantastic and has much great UM since before the election. But you know, particularly UM at the end of last year the beginning of this year, and we've seen the consumer UM confidence measures sore UM.

The problem is that there's little UM indication of how much consumers are actually going to spend what we've found generally is that incomes tend to affect consumer spending more than just pure confidence. And so the soft data, all the confidence data, looks great. If you look at the hard data, so retail sales, new car registrations, it looks decidedly less good. Um, new car registrations looked really awful at the end of the first quarter of this year.

They've since come back a little bit, but but they're not looking great. Retail sales have just been bumbling along in positive territory um but nothing to write home about. And of course the consumer drives every recovery in the US has done since, you know, in our modern history. So the consumer is a thing to be looking at in its recovery. But there's little evidence that the confidence

is really translating into marketsumer spending. But within this is just the simple core idea of where the economy is. Have we reached escape velocity or do we struggle now in America between an okay quarter allows e quarter, an okay quarter allows e quarter? In that do you do within the micro data and as you say, some of it's optimistic, can you say we've reached an escape velocity

to some form of consistency, so I don't think. So we're growing above our potential GDP growth, so that's pretty good. Our potential GDP growth is around one and a half percent, and we're around two percent. Okay, but is that eurosclerosis? Did you just define eurosclerosis um to someund degree to percent isn't enough to address the issues that have as in for example UM. But among the developed countries percent

growth is actually pretty good. So we're having an escape velocity in the sense that we're gonna go ahead now as the administration would like and expects. I don't think. I think fundamentally the US is a two percent economy, but again it's better than our potential GDP growth, so that's not terrible. Back in greening with us from a many lifetime, I'm looking here at our Jennifer Jacobs tweeting about who is accompanying the president on that trip, Milannia.

As you said, his his wife, the first lady, will be there, Gary Khne going with him as well, and as well Mrs Michael Barr. You're supposed to tell us when the president Trump's and particularly when they're important. These set of Trump of of tweet Trump treats are he's gonna getting ready to leave for Poland and we just so I'm getting the airplane. David Gura, the United States made some of the worst trade deals in world history. Why should we continue these deals with countries that do

not help us? And then this one's more important. I'm sure Michael Barr is gonna go. This is more detailed. Trade between China and North Korea were almost in the fourth quarter. So much for China working with US. Wow, but we had to give it a trial. He continues there with with that tweet, I'll point out what I said with Adam posting just a few moments ago. The marl Lago summit took place just I think three months ago,

maybe three months ago. And then Terry Brandstad the form of Governor Vaowa has been on the ground in Beijing as the US ambassador to China for just six days. Uh so a particularly important it's the important tweet from the present there about the relationship between the US and China. And or thanks to Megan Green, Megan Green, the chief economists that manual life joining us on our phone lines. This is truly one of our most popular guests. Luis

Shimada joining us on our phone lines. Louise does charts and does them with a respect for what economics and what fundamentals are doing. Is well, Louise, wonderful to speak to you again. Thank you so much for quoting Martin's way as you do on page four the late Marty's wide don't fight the Fed. What do your charts say about what cheer Yellen is doing? Well? Interestingly, the two year note is moving up in the tenure which had broken support, has started to turn around a little to

move higher. Um. But I think that in terms of the equity market, we were becoming concerned in May about the parabolic in NASTAC and some of the technology stocks, and I think that we don't have major tops here. You still have upturns in plate, you have moving averages rising, and monthly momentum is still positive. So this could be just the speed bump that allows for consolidation that could be followed by another rally UM. But I think that

there are some external things that need to be watched. Okay, And of course the jargon with Louisia Mada is like she's a pro. She's not going to dumb it down for Tom Keen. The parabolic is the acceleration or second derivative in a semilog space. Do you like that, Louise I hope I got that right on the two year yield chart. On the chart Janet Yelling cares about there was huge distribution across all of two thousand sixteen. I'm

gonna make it even fifteen months. Distribution at zero point eight zero is a center tendency, and we've lifted up in an organized manner. Can you say escape velocity on the two year yield to a higher yield a lower note price. Oh? I think so. I think that that's where we're really going to see the change. The decline that you were talking about in essentially slipped under and bounce right back up over the uptrend. We've been talking about the six to eight year basing process um in

the interest rate profile. I would say because rate changes or rate reversals from falling rate cycles have historically taken two to fourteen years, so sixty eight years doesn't surprise us. You're going through one I think one sixties next on the two years and David, one of the charms of miss Amata is she has a courage to look at a long term x exis Yamada goes out longer on charts,

which is a rare commodity. Today, Luis, we're talking with Adam Posing a few moments ago, and he was expressing his frustration with the fact that we don't really have a good definition of what the neutral rate is. How does that complicate your outlook not knowing exactly what the neutral rate is? But I think that that complicates everybody, including the FED. I mean they've even acknowledged to a certain extent that they, you know, they're not sure exactly

where it is. I think she's looking at two and a half percent UM, so it's it's going to be a test as we go and if we move carefully and see what the results are as she raises rates. There are times when you're in a in a structural bull market, which we think we still are UM when the rate rises don't start affecting the equities until a fifth or a sixth rate reverse, you know, rate rise.

But we're at the point where I think we have to start paying attention, taking a look at the market and sort of a bipedal way as you do looking at the first leg there between two thousand and nine and two thousand fifteen is the first leg up here we are in the second UH one one one to think that we are due for a correction at some point as soon. What are the indications you're looking at? Do you see any that a correction is on the

near term horizon? Well, no, except for the fact that in two the beginning in two thousand and nine, after about a year and a half, you got your first step back. It was just a consolidation corrective phase. But you know, we're a year and a half into this now and I think that it's possible that we have um more of a corrective phase. But you know, if you even just came back to the trend line, that's a single digit pulled back and nastac it's barely You

have a textbook chart. Very quickly here, Louise, I want to come back on golden oil. You have a textbook you amodit chart. On consumer discretionary sector, it's been a boom within this boom bull market. Can you say higher higher on twenty six and multiple consumer discretionaries. Consumer discretionaries have been a mixed bag. You've had the retail there that has done incredibly poorly, and the relative strengths have

continuously gone to new lows over an extended period of time. Uh. And then you have others which have included media and and and some of the cable and satellite and those areas that have done particularly well. So I think one has to really divide out which stocks, which groups are talking about in consumer discretionary overall, it's not performing the way the financials have just turned up. A technology has rested, and industrials may be coming in, and healthcare, but particularly

the um equipment, the equipment department in health care. Let's come back Luisia Matta with us. And I know, folks you want to hear about golden oil. What a range for oil as well. We'll come back with Louisia Matta. Let me say particularly warm good morning this folks, this morning to our listeners in Boston who are listening on Bloomberg one oh six one, our new new station in in Boston, at our new home for Bloomberg Radio in

the Bay State. And Louise, let me ask you. Look at so many ratios, let me ask you about one in particular, that is the ratio of emerging markets and developed markets. When you look at that right now, what's it telling you? It's telling me we're in a bit of a neutral range. Uh, if it were to live through this year plus trading range that it's been in, then you begin to see the emerging markets outperformed but hasn't happened yet. So I'd say they're sort of in

the tobal war. Emerging markets haven't made it through the longer term downtrend on their own, and the developed markets are some of them are doing well, but some of the emerging are doing well too. Um. I mean, you've got the decks at New High's, the Taiwan coffee, India, Jakarta, even in Mexico here of course, so it's it's a war, Louise. The world stops when you come on is people just simply want to know Louisia Mota on gold. Like oil, it's sort of been blocked. Are they just in these

these ranges? The strange phrase ranges is that where we are home on the gold range. Well, I've seen gold, We've we have questioned whether or not the rally that we had in either or this year is is nothing more than a cyclic cyclical bull in the structural bear um. It has not been able to definitively break through the eleven down trend. And I think what's even more important

is the ratio. Talk about ratio is the relative performance between equities and gold, and um those have topped with major equity market tops sixty eight two thousand and moved into outperformance of gold as the equities undergo bear markets. But in two thousand and ten we saw a turn in that ratio in which the equities are outperforming gold, and we don't see any reason for that to change in the near future. How do you respond, particularly on a Friday, Luisia Mota, to all the gloom articles that

are out there. I mean, you're you're someone with a pencil and paper in your hands and decades of experience. When you see the world's coming to an end, go sell this, Sell that, don't be in this that. How do you respond to that? I tend to look at them, ignore them, and go with the price. I mean you have to if you if you have enough faith in technical analysis and the idea that in price there's knowledge,

you have to go and look at the price. And a lot of times things that are being recommended just don't have the price patterns to back them up. And I think that's a story of gold. I can't tell you how many people send me positive article on golden. You know, we're just not seen that in the chart.

How about the dollar charting about the d X Y chart, Well, the dollar unfortunately was in a nice breakout there through through a two year trading range between ninety three and a hundred, and it hasn't been able to sustain the targets at higher levels come right back into that trading range and it's about mid range now close to But it's possible here both momentum models weekly and monthly are

are negative. It's possible it comes back in teste. I mean, what's going on in Europe and the end of their easing so to speak, is having an effect. And now we go. Folks were few. They fear to tread oil. Louise, oil is maddening to look at with a soup, toxic soup in it, But what does the price action really see? What I would suggest, respectively, folks from March we've seen a set of lower high and three lower loads as well. Louise, did I do Okay? Can I go home? Now? Okay?

Just what I was going to tell you only that, but you're now below the moving averages. You've broken in uptrand and it looks like every time price starts to go up to somebody's there to sell it. Yeah, and what's so important your folks in this this? I gotta go for brownie points here with Mr Martin. David, we've one to three times going perfectly to two standard deviations of volatility, and we're there again at three. And the vectors going from his gartment would say, from the upper

left to the lower right, is that? Okay, Louise, that's fine. I'm taking on Thursday and Friday. Okay, David, Louise, let me just ask you. Let's let's close here by talking about equities a little more. And I wonder when you look at sectors and let's talk about technology. What are you seeing the technology sector at today? Well, the technology sector is underperforming slightly, but it's still within the relative

strength uptrend UM, So it's not UM. It's not something that's telling us that it's any more than a speed bump. But I think that we have to watch for the potential for contagion or for this consolidation of That's what we're going to call it to to pull back a little farther. Um. But overall, technology has been outperforming for so long that I think it would be healthy if it had a rest. But you haven't broken the You haven't broken the relative strength uptrend. You could if if

technology comes back further. But I think you can take that ten percent in the NAZ back and and maybe turn up again. But we'll have to see it as we go. We do have negative divergences in some of our technical indicators, and as those extend over time, UM, you can start defining a problem. We don't necessarily think it's tomorrow. The A D line is still high in the monthly momentumus positive, Luis, Thank you so much, Los your madam. Thanks for listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast.

Subscribe and listen to interviews on Apple Podcasts, SoundCloud, or whichever podcast platform you prefer. I'm on Twitter at Tom Keene, David Gura is at David Gura. Before the podcast, you can always catch us worldwide. I'm Bloomberg Radio, brought you by Bank of America Mary Lynch. With virtual reality, virtually everything will change. Discover opportunities in a transforming world, be of a mL dot com, slash vr, Mary Lynch, Pierced Fenner and Smith Incorporated,