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Lurid Calvisina said, you wouldn't come on if I didn't do bear market bull market calls. I got to do standard deviation calls, and we're out at three point three standard deviations down Standard Iporus five hundred, one step down, two steps down, and this morning, three steps down. We are honored the Lori Calvisina would join us here in this hour again commercial free nationwide. Lord, your observation as you speak to your clients this morning.
Look, I think people are trying to make sense of what's going on, how far we could go down. You know, just a few minutes ago, I had an email with someone who was talking to me about my four tiers of fear framework, and so there's a lot of sympathy among my clients for your thirty one hundred, which is the fourth tier where you have a major crisis and
lose half the market value. I'm not going to sit here, Tom and tell you everybody saying that, but that was one email that came across, whereas other people have sort of resonated to the idea that we said, you know, we've been in a growth scare. Of the risk now is we're pricing in recession and it sounds to me like just based on where we open, we're headed straight
for that. So I think that people are doing what we do when we have these events in markets where there is a fear that is cascading very rapidly.
What we're going to do here now with an equity strategist is take all over wonderful abilities, particularly with less profitable non Apple, non Microsoft companies, and bring it over to what people are talking about with the Dow negative fourteen hundred. Laurie Calvicina. Take the equity market and what it will bounce off in a credit market that deteriorates. The jargon that Paul Sweeney uses is spreads deteriorate. That's the yield of a garbage bond versus a full faith
in credit, and the yield goes higher. Are we to tipping point in credit that affects the equity market.
It's a great question I'm certainly not an expert on the credit market, tom, so I'm gonna deflect on that one. But what I will say is that, you know, maybe up until about a week ago, and it was a little bit before the Rose Garden ceremony, to be honest, but we had actually been seeing small caps starting to outperform large caps, and like on the big down days in the market, small caps weren't doing quite as bad.
And I thought that was interesting. That was making me feel a little bit better because they had already been so de risk, they were so cheap, and we felt like there was this rotation going on that was hitting the bigger caps harder than the small caps. But that's all changed. So we've seen that attempt that small caps were making the bottom now fail posts the Rose Garden, and that's going to be very you know, similar right
to that high high yield cohort of the market. And what that's been telling me over the past few days is that those recession risks are getting priced in rapidly because as cheap as they are, and honestly, tom my valuation pe for the my valuation model, the market cap way to pe for the Russell two thousand was it thirteen and a half times on the Thursday close In recession, it tends to go to eleven to thirteen times even before you clean up the excess earning's optimism. So these
things have been acting pretty pretty bad. But I do think that credit markets holding off, not deteriorating. You know, that's been sort of the thing that's kind of kept people out. And I hate to use the word panic in markets like these, but that's been kind of the thing that's kept people calm. But there can be a necessary part of the bondming process we have to go through in here.
Let me uncom you right now, Paul the Vick's fifty two point zero.
Seven exactly, Laurie, what's the earnings risk still out there in the marketplace do you think, I mean, is it a flat earnings year in twenty five or maybe something more than that.
You know, what we've.
Got modeled is is you know, kind of a stagflationary scenario right now for two fifty eight, which is well below the bottom up consensus, which last I checked was
two sixty nine. Who knows what it is now because things are starting to change, but what we have found it's an interesting question you asked, Paul, because if you kind of go back and look at bad earnings years, what we often find is that, you know, in kind of big crises, big recessions, you're seeing earnings year, earning's growth on a year for a year basis going down
like thirteen percent or something worse. Right, So, some big, ugly numbers, but they're actually a lot of years where earnings are just flat year to year, and when we see companies, you know, sort of being able to muddle through, that's often what's happened. So we when we recently changed our earning's number to two fifty eight, we said, you know, kind of the downside scenario, if we want to kind of put in a barricase, we're thinking a lot about
kind of that two forty six number for now. That could change if we go into a full on recession. But outside of that, that's not a bad assumption to make just that earnings go nowhere, Laurie, I, I.
Think most of us listening watching here would say, you know what, twelve twenty four to thirty six months from now, this market's going to be higher than where we are right here, probably meaningfully higher. So I should probably be doing some buying here.
How does that conversition do you?
Well, look, look, I'll tell you it's it's sort of the fly in the ointment for the strategists right now. And you know, I see this in my own modeling, Paul. We have five different models that we used to come up with our price targets. And look, I know everything is scary if people are like math, Oh my god, you're doing math, But that's what we have to do,
right to keep ourselves grounded. And when I go through and look at my modeling, the one model that's still pretty constructive is actually the sentiment model, and it's it's basically looking at aaii net bulls that are down around GFC lows twenty twenty two lows, nineteen ninety one recession lows. And that is a good reminder that as quickly as things cascade onto the downside, they come they tend to
come roaring back when you get some resolution. And so I think that's you know, that's something a lot of you know, us, for casters, we've had in the back of our heads as we've tried to navigate this environment.
It's hard, so.
That's impossible, right to say, what is that trigger? But it is something we have to watch, and it's a necessary condition for a bottom that's already been put in.
Place, Tesla not to a two hundred and one ninety nine. We're not there yet.
I don't want to be too gloomy, but I'm going to go over here, Lourie to something nobody talks about. And of course we're on a Canadian border on this Ford motor under ten dollars nine dollars eleven cents right down on lows for twenty twenty five. And they got a pe multiple on Ford of five and maybe the forward multiple, which we're going to blow up. We know that is seven. Are we in value territory and medium and small cap stocks like we clearly are with the Ford Motor Company.
So you know, I was having an argument with someone about that this morning.
Time's your housband.
Talking about not my husband. I'm I'm on a trip. I'm in a hotel room.
So I believe that he ardus with the marriage survives.
Yeah, but he's very scared of my tears of fear chart. I had to take some passwords away from him. But the reality is is that you know, when I highlight this small calf chart and that we're at thirteen times, or at least we were as a Thursday. People say, well, we have to adjust the earnings, and I say, I know,
we have to adjust the earnings. That's the separate thing though, if you look at you know, sort of historically my forward pe data eleven to thirteen times is where small caps tend to bottom out even when the E is too high, and people just can't mentally wrap their heads around that. But it is something important you have to keep in mind because it's one of those things again
that you have to see. It's not going to peg a bottom on its own, right, but it's still a signal even though there's some problems with the E. Now, I do think with earnings, we have to get the numbers down before anybody is going to have faith to come in and buy here. Forty percent of the revisions and the growth, the Russell and S and P are
still to the upside. Nobody's cutting numbers because they don't, you know, they I don't know a lot of different reasons, but nobody's been cutting the numbers pretty come on.
Lori back to her clients at RBC Capital, Marcus Lori Kelvissenior hugged the children.
As all can say.
This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Listen live each weekday starting at seven am Eastern on Applecarplay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station, Just say Alexa Play Bloomberg eleven thirty.
I had a major industry heavyweight who sent me his internal memo for his company, and he said, Tom, can't mention my name, you can't mention the note. It's you know, compliance and all all that. But his analog was nineteen ninety eight. What is Michael Purvis's analog to where we are right now?
That's when Paul and I were working at Alicotas there. That was a long time ago there. I'm not sure what your friend was referencing in exactly.
August, you know, the upset of August.
Okay, okay, yeah, that's part ninety Capital Manage, right. Yeah, Well, I'm not sure I completely connect those dots in my mind right now. I mean that was a very sort of micro thing.
This is, yeah, we're what's what's the problem.
You know, if we go back to the last two big events uh COVID and the Great Financial Crisis, those were giant left tail shocks. The federal government was there in whether it's monetary policy or fiscal policy, there to to to be the ointment the solve for getting the wounds repaired and the economy back on track. In this case, the federal government is actually the catalyst for the for the volatility.
So it's a very different I think mindset here there.
I so, yeah, No, I think it's it's a very uncharted orders here. I've been, like, I think, coming in before last Wednesday, I've been conditioning clients to think about forty eight hundred, not on an economic barcase, not on a recept, not on something ugly, just simply normalization of valuation and a little bit of earning slippage, which is
sort of normal course of business. And I think where I'm at Tom right now, and this is not like an official price target, but I think investors have to have their minds open to the fact that four thousand is not really that as crazy as it sounds, think
about it. You could get even three handle less and P five like under four thousand, seventeen times flat flat earnings rows seventeen times seventeen is not some super distressed price and flat earnings growth is not really that big a bearcase, right, if you have some margin slippage and
you have some top line slippage from where analystot. An overarching point I was trying to make in my note yesterday Tom was was that, you know, the pivot from a sentiment, the feeling you have is absolutely shocking, right, the reversal there, But the absolute levels of weird things have been is still really high compared to where we were in March of twenty twenty or during the Lehman
Brothers saga and so forth. And I think you know, you look at credit spreads, Yeah, those were backing up part last week.
Look at a ten.
Year chart of those credit spreads, right. Look at a lot of cross asset volatility metrics, you know, for example, the Korean Wan volatilities that Damian's ass hour looks at all day long, right, those really weren't moving up at all last week. They are starting to now right there. If you look at one of the other metrics I think was really interesting is that, of course the Vicks had soared and it's still soaring there. If you looked at other European like European equity Vall, Nike equity VLL
that had gone up. But the spreads between US equity vol and European equity evil or whatever what that record wise on.
A pe basis.
And I take your point in compression with the earnings coming down you mentioned Paul Danines given a Tesla change here, is it enough of an erning's compression? You just directly link it to a greater economy that's going to be destroyed by tariffs. Because if the academics tell me, the people from Columbia, if you go to Columbia, you get an ear Did you study with Mundel?
Were you in a classic?
I was in an architecture major at Columbia.
Actually took.
No, not a minute. No, I used to Maybe that's why you're so good. Anyways, I did in business school though. But yes, the.
Bottom the bottom line is earning has come in because the economy comes in. And the answer is every academic note I see, good morning, Maurice sobs felled out at Berkeley. Is the GDP is going to come in real or nominal?
Do you model that?
Yeah? Look, I think I think you have to it's very hard to model direction.
But also with earnings, right, if you look at what is implied, you look at Bloomberg consensus top line for the S and P five hundred and the bottom line for this year next year implied our margins that we've never seen before, right, really high margins.
So a little bit of margins.
Let's say, without without without liberation day should be expected, right, a little bit of you know, obviously tech margins have been a great story there, but a little bit of margin give back I think should happen if nominal GDP contracts and if companies are having a harder time selling their products and services into perhaps an overstretched consumer.
Now you have to bring in maybe.
A bigger story if these tariffs really start denting margins, and that's how you can get you don't need a you don't need a recession to get flat earning's growth in twenty five and twenty six.
And now folks Surveyllan's audible. Paul, did you ever confront this like when you were on a when you were writing reports, the macro shifts and you've got to readjust your spreadsheets in the two pages you're writing in.
Front of it.
Yeah, absolutely, particularly with the media cars.
Are you're doing it because you're doing it, or your compliance.
Is to do it?
Well? Do it.
My companies were driven by advertising, which is very cyclical, so it's easy to model that. But I mean, I'm looking at the S and P five hundred the street. Michael still got ten percent earners growth this year, twelve thirteen percent. Extra numbers got to come down. Do you have a recession in your model?
Is that?
No?
I don't. I don't.
And then and to be clear, I'm look, I'm not an economist. I don't.
I don't look at it, but I do look at economic data all day long, and I do look at where where, more importantly, where there's sort of the consensus estimates are and so forth, and those numbers. I think a lot of analysts, whether they're stock analysts or economists, the ones that are surveyed by Bloomberg and these surveys, they can you know, you have to recognize it.
Look, it's hard.
They didn't have inputs until Wednesday, and the inputs that they now have are very confusing and very dynamic.
I would so.
Paul jump in here, but I would suggest Paul that they haven't had time to publish everything Michael's talking about so quickly, or it's late this week if you're.
Lucky, Yeah, exactly. So what do you expect to hear from companies this earning?
Well, boy, I don't know.
I don't know.
That's great, Okay.
So if you were advising the CFO and the CEO of one of your former clients, right, what would you do? You'd be probably say, let's guide down, we have a good you know, like that, and look and and maybe
if all this thing does. I don't want to sound super barisher, but there is a bowl case that that that if that, if that, if people if the c suite guides down and says, look, there's so much uncertainty, we're just going to be very very conservative here and we get through this tariff stuff and the good things
happen in the second half and into twenty six. There'll be a lot of the upside there and from the consumer as well, right, Like if the consumers are getting conservative, that preserves the balance sheet to spend later.
Right.
So there is there is a there is a bull scenario there that you have to consider. But I think, yeah, people are going to die down. Why wouldn't you go down nearly right here.
Thank you so much. On the Pacific Run in their evening. This is a lovely lady from Shanghai emailing in mister Purvis. When do I buy the dip.
Well, I look, I would, I think there's more downside coming. One thing to think about is, like, you know, look at long term momentum signals, right, like I look at the monthly mac D on the S and P five hundred that is just last week turned a key point, and it's exactly like what happened in March of twenty two when we went into a bear market there. I don't think dip buyers are coming in anytime soon. I think the clarity that this uncertainty cloud is not going away.
People talk about the Trump put, and my point back to them is that the Trump put is not a fed put because the process by which that unfolds, you know, you know, at what what's the strike price? When do we get there and all that kind of stuff are big questions.
Will we ever get there? Right? Is another broader question, the.
Question, but if let's assume a bull case here that that we get a you know, sometimes later this quarter, we got a very clear set of policy.
That doesn't it's asymmetric.
That doesn't mean that the certainty comes back as quickly as it disappeared. Tariffs are a very it's a weapon that Trump is using that is to to realign the industrial policy of the United States, but it can create a lot of damage. Repairing the damage as a slower process.
Purpose is a threat to society.
Get one more question in here, But futures now just ticking negative one thousand, negative one thousand and forty seven on the now then NASTAQ negative.
Two point eight percent. This is all Michael Purvis is doing exactly.
The RSI, the relative strength index for the S and P five hundred.
We're now at twenty three.
That's below that thirty level, which is historically a technical buy.
Oh yeah no.
And to this person's question, I mean from a very near term training point of view, yeah, I would expect it a bounce here this week. Absolutely, twenty three is pretty extreme there, and then you gotta watch what kind of selling pressure comes into that bounce and so forth, and how it reacts to other newslow as well. But I think I think valuations and earnings doing buying a dip on a strategic basis before the earning season is a very tricky thing, and earnings are just going to start coming in.
Michael, Thank you so much, Michael Purvis Tall Backham.
This morning, you're listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Catch us Live weekday afternoons from seven to ten am Eastern Listen on Apple Karplay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app, or watch US Live on YouTube.
Henrieta treys now Veda partners Mia McGuinness later on the debt and the deficit. Henrietta, I want to go to one of the most interesting politicians, whatever you think of him, in Washington, mister Cruz of Texas. He's got a mathematics wiz mom out of Rece University. His father is a stereotype, came over on a vote from Cuba. Ted Cruz is different. He's had it with the tariffs. He wants free trade. Does he have any company this morning? In the United States Senate, there.
Are about six Republican senators who are willing to sign on to a bill that after sixty days might consider thinking about taking back some of President Trump's authority on tariffs.
So a lot of this is a little bit performative.
If y'all excuse me, he had an opportunity to vote against just the Canada tariffs, our largest trading partner, four.
Days ago, and he did not support that measure.
So explain it explained.
The Republicans, Democrats' independence John Tucker explain, Hanvy it a trays how they can mouth off how they're against the president, but at the same time they voted against they voted against the Toronto maple leafs.
It's unbelievable. How does this happen.
It is a full course change for the Republican Party from a decade ago. This is not your grandfather's Republican Party. These are not free traders. They believe there's no such thing as free trade anymore. There's only such thing as fair trade, which apparently is the reciprocal tariffs that put you know, nearly one hundred percent tariffs on goods coming in from China and forty percent plus tariffs on Canada and Mexico are largest trading partners, twenty five percent tariffs on EU automobiles.
That is what they consider now free and fair trade. And they have an opportunity to if they really want to make.
A slash here get in front of Jamison Greer on Tuesday when he's in front of the Senate explaining the president's trade agenda. So watch that if you want to see something performative instead of you know, just a couple of press briefings or tweetings tweets, you got to get out there and really do it otherwise they're not going to move to the president off of this.
Okay, So Henrietta, just to be clear here, folks in the market should not expect Congress to step in and slow down or alter or push back on these tariffs going forward.
Is that the message?
That is definitely my message, And I would get more specific if you don't believe me.
They have four days.
They have tonight, Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday, and then they're gone for the rest of the month.
So a month in the.
Markets right now is an eternity, and they will be out of town beginning Thursday night.
So that's your limit.
Okay, all right, I don't even know why they're out of town. The rest of us are working, so I'm not even going to ask that question. But what is next on the to do list for Congress that the markets seem to be focused on.
Well, the market is very optimistic, I think way overly so that we're going to get some sort of stimulus to combat the trillions of dollars worth of tariffs that have taken hold in the market and are roiling the global economy. The bill at the House, excuse me, that
the Senate has passed. The budget that they've passed authorizes five point three trillion dollars in deficit increases, and in the stimulative components there, I can count about three hundred billion dollars worth of available funds to do maybe a little bit of things like eliminating taxes on tip, which is one hundred and seventy five billion dollars or half of the available basket money that they can spend for
fresh stimulus. So we're going to spend the rest of the summer working on a massive tax bill with substantial deficit increases that don't stimulate the economy.
Folks, I'll just said a touralized I don't know how you do a quote unquote massive tax bill with a VIX of forty eight.
Point four to seven, and just that's original.
Henry had a trace to cut to the chase, and I look at Charlie Cook's a Cook Political Report, the Cook Partisan Voting Index, four and thirty five congresses in the one third of the Senate. Has mister Trump lost the Republicans the House and the Senate?
I would say, certainly the House.
The average change for this president and other swings of this magnitude is a loss in between forty and sixty seats in the House. That's, you know, in a state, in a situation where the Republican conference only has the margin of a couple four sixties, a sea change.
You know you're going to.
Who you want to hear from is not Ted Cruz. You want to hear from the members who are up in the Senate. Lisa Murkowski, excuse me, Susan Collins, Tom Tillis and those guys see where they are?
Okay, Well, where's Tom Tillis on this?
I mean, you know, the general lady from Maine is on a Canadian border.
I get it. Okay, Tillis is from what the Carolina is. Yeah.
And Senator Tillis is amazing on this.
He's actually getting out there in front of some of this legislation and signing his name on the dotted line saying we.
Need to claw back some of this authority.
North Carolina is a purple state and they support the Inflation Reduction Act. They have a ton of jobs coming in from all those clean energy manufacturing tax credits. This is an educated voter base. Senator Tillis has the opportunity and I think is taking it to be at the forefront.
Here is Grassley of Iowa on board with Tillis.
Yes.
Senator Grassley is the original sponsor of the legislation, so yes, absolutely.
Can you be with this enough so to stop this?
Henrietta, can you be with us tomorrow? Can we do a remote from Ben's Chili bowl?
I can do that, Henrietta Trey's U Street tomorrow, NW.
Thank you so much for Veda Partners.
This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Listen live each weekday starting at seven am Eastern on Applecarplay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station, Just say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven thirty.
What we're really.
Trying to do here, folks, is lose the punditry. There's really well meaning people out there. Their job description is to say, catch the falling knife, here's the bottom. We're not doing that. We're trying to give you sensible talk. This weekend I did Maurice Obsfeldt of Berkeley, working with Adam Posen at the Peterson Institute, a terrific balanced essay of core economics. We do that now with Keith Lerner can say enough about his work with truest a long
track record of being measured and providing perspective. Keith, what do you say to people now who simply say, should I go to cash?
Yeah, we're fir.
It's great to be with you.
It's always good to be on with you all.
So our main simple measures today is it's time to start thinking about two A risk, not just the downside risk, but also the upside risk. You know, back in February when we were at all time highs, there's a lot of complacency. We actually downgraded equities back then. We've had this sharp moved lower, Tom and we've had a historical move lower. So again, time praise matter. Every individual, every
individual circumstance matters. But our main message is if you have a goal and you have you know the wherewithal to go through this we would not be selling into this weakness, and we can talk about this. We just published a paper going through some statistics as a guide about how things tend to act after these brutal two day de theories that we just.
Want, do you dollar cost average.
In Yeah, I think that is a pre and approach because there has been some damage, right, things have been broken. We are are not going back to new highs anytime soon, at least our work suggests that to be the case. What also happens after we have these really uh you know, sharp two day moves in the market. What's notable in our work is the sharp two day up moves tend to happen within the next two or three weeks as well. So you're going to see these swings back and forth.
Each headline is going to be over extrapolated and there's gonna be a lot of emotions. So to your point, I think using a prudent dollar cost average approach into the market, Uh, it makes a lot of sense right here.
Uh, Keith whorder fixing come fit into the discussion these days, I'm looking at the two year treasury three spot six two percent.
Yeah, so you know we've been our main focus this year was high quality bonds are back, and they they're going to start acting like ballast portfolios after they hadn't the last few years. That is how happened and what's also notable if you're going back to just common sense basic diversification, you know, a sixty to forty portfolio is down less than forty percent because bonds have acted like bonds against as stability and income. That said, on a short term basis, we saw bonds move from four to
eighty down below three seventy five. Now we're back above four. I think, you know, a short term we've probably an ongoing a lot lower here in the nearer term, but again from a portfolio diversification standpoint, plane of fixed income still is attractive. And incrementally we've been really negative on credit, and incrementally we're going to become a bit more positive as those yields or those credit spreads start to blow out.
I haven't asked this question all morning. I think we should inflict Keith schuber By that Keith Lenner is Mag seven the same old Meg seven or is it a new Meg seven?
Yeah, you know, it's funny because it was fag A couple of years ago, then it's the MAG seven. So maybe the MAG seven components change as well. But you know, one thing I found interesting is I'm going through, you know, hundreds and hundreds of charts over the weekend with my
team the technology sector as a whole. The valuation levels are now back to where they were in October of twenty twenty three, and the MAGS seven, you know, stocks have moved from well above thirty to somewhere in the early twenties.
Now.
The big question we all know is the E. We don't know what the E is, but I do suspect that, you know, in times of Highland certainty where they're still going to be a huge demand for AI and productivity. But you'll see somebody vote key back into these names after this just kind of wild here the last few months.
The Keith Lerner, thank you so much.
This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Listen live each weekday starting at seven am Eastern on Applecarplay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also watch us live every weekday on YouTube and always on the Bloomberg terminal.
Joining us down Surveillance Right Sizing correspondent hin Aali bassic. There's like eight ways to go here. We got James Dimer's letter forget about it. What's circlating out there is margin calls, and I would add to that the stresses of private equity or private credit.
What can you report, Well, let's do two things on the margin call side. Of course, these were the worst margin calls since you saw since the COVID pandemic. However, wire time's a little different.
Now.
You already had so much pain coming into this year that you had a lot of people hedging, You had a lot of rotation already cleared out a little bit of it. I mean not to say there won't be more, but you know, when I talked to the banks, even at the highest levels, yes, there's a little bit of panic in the sense that they are really screaming hoping for the president to roll back, right. I mean, you know, hope is not a strategy as we know, but you know,
hedge funds at this point. I would also say, remember there is an element of excitement to tom. Last night I had tons of fun saying, you know, the cash has been working as a good edge, which means they also have cash to deploy when things get really bad.
So I think there is equally an.
Element of waiting for that really bad to start to step in.
Will you let us know when that happens.
Yeah, I will be crying to come on on surveillance radio of course.
Well, actually, just on social media.
A lot of the big names on Wall Street. Bill Ackman, for example, has been very active and capitulated.
Capitulated.
I mean, he's been such a supporter of the President and the president's economic policies. But I think even he has said, all right, we need to we need some clarity.
Yeah, you know, to Tom's point on the private markets too, Equally, people who have been deep into public markets are actually more worried about private markets because you can't see how much pain is under the surface.
There have been a little bit.
Why can you, because on one hand you have a sense of sky high more than a decade worth of bankruptcies last year. If you can think about how much pain you saw coming into this year, then multiply that by.
A lot of Paul's been on top of this private credit? What is to worry about private credit? Describe? Is it they're locked in? What's the anks?
Have you heard of this term? Amended extent yes.
Of course, lending side, yes, Rich, OK, thank.
You, extent amend and pretend if you want to call it that people have put on so much debt on their balance sheet to get through the last couple of years. Because the IPO market has been closed, the M and A market hasn't been opened to a lot of these highly levered companies. The moment was supposed to be now, Tom, they were supposed to sell.
Now they can't sell. They can't sell, They're locked in correct.
What's it mean?
I'm going to ask Shanali?
What are the big I see the big Wall Street firms cutting their price targets.
I mean the Wall streets jumping. And that's just.
In public markets.
So if you look at private markets, you're looking at values that are declining steeply.
You're looking at leverage. That is a turn.
There's leverage there.
There is leverage there, and as you know, leverage is the enemy.
I got one minute left here, just as simple as I can. Mister Diamond's out of the letter in his defense, was written before all this idiocy. Are we going to write size? I mean, I'm making jokes about and folks, I hate the phrase layoffs and finance. Are we going to see firings to write size to a new reality.
It's certainly becoming a discussion because all the deals that were expected to happen, it's already April. You can count out the month already. How much is actually going to happen this year? You're not going to see the activity come back in full form and honestly, bank earning start Friday.
So here weather, thank thank you.
I didn't, I didn't. I lost my mind on that. How are the international banks doing in Manhattan? The Deutsche banks that BnB.
Rast you know, HSPC is one of the most interesting to watch. They are on the tail end of a massive, you know, maybe historic for the bank restructuring. They got rid of a lot of businesses and now they're focusing on things like trade financing, which is for this market a pretty interesting place to be.
Okay, what do you want? I got ten? What are you watching to day? What's the number one thing?
Credits?
Brek credit, well like high yield full faith.
And high yield investment, great credit default swaps. Remember, credit is that canary in the coal mine, and the smart money watches a credit go first, it's a canary dead.
Yeah, gasp for.
I love Busted and shots should Island Bassak, and I really want to do a master shout out to her leadership on Bloomberg Investor Shere was a high postage.
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