Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Catch us live weekdays at seven am Eastern on Apple CarPlay or Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube.
Joining us Chief, where are we economists at?
EIU Constance owner joins us After a good conversation last week, it seems like three months as we last talked to you, I think it was two cups of coffee.
It's I mean, that is it only Tuesday?
Yeah?
On a day to day basis, how do you sustain your analysis?
So, as Lisa was giving her excellent rundown, I was thinking about how we spent all of yesterday looking at the pharma codes.
So there's two codes.
There's the codes that start with the number thirty that are all sort of the finalized goods.
There's the codes that start with the.
Number twenty nine, and those are all the goods that the intermediate goods that go into pharma. And of course Trump is threatening these pharma tariffs, and we're trying to get ahead of this by like really just ingesting all the codes, thinking about what the impacts would be.
The bottom line is he may screw up our feed of antibiotic materials.
That's what we're talking about.
Yes, I mean when you put tariffs on like this and we basically embargoed China, there is not going to be any more supply of many, many goods from China. Right, we do that to pharmaceuticals. It's a very dangerous game to play in an ad hoc way.
So you put all this stuff in a blender, and I don't know what goes in this blender anymore, But what does it do to your economic forecast?
Do you even? I guess you have to keep so.
Obviously we keep analyzing and expanding our modalities for analyzing what the weighted average tarif rate is. But what we have and this is this is almost stupidly simple. But what we have done is we've looked at the uncertainty index that Baker and Bloom put out from Stanford. Now, one of the bases of that index is actually the EIU database are written works over the last thirty years.
That's one component.
Another component is the change in tax code that's anticipated over the next two years. Obviously, we have the TCJA coming up that leads to a lot of uncertainty and then the dispersion of economic forecasts. And when you use this index, you can see that it is correlated with recessions.
You know that those recessions weren't we didn't we were.
They were called after the fact as NBER does, and probably that data ended up being revised down. So we know that this forecasts and corresponds with a reduction in capex, a reduction in consumer spending, and of course those two things together mean lower employment growth eventually declines in employment.
Okay, where are you on jobs? The elasticity of all of these emotions, crisis. Whatever our listeners and viewers think, the bottom line is, I'm sorry, if I'm elected free beer.
It comes back to jobs, right.
Yeah, When to claims pop or other series, the constance hunter looks at yeah.
And I mean, we're expecting somewhat softer jobs in the in the April report, but that's going to be a really critical factor, I think, and when the Fed can actually go ahead and move rates, right, so as long as jobs are holding in there, and of course we know it's at best a coincidence indicator, probably a lagging indicator in many instances, but they are still going to wait to see some weakness. So we're going to look at things like ours worked. We're going to look at
the diffusion index. We're going to look at the composition of what types of jobs are being created, because state and local governments are probably going to pull back on some of the hiring they've done. They did made up makeup hiring over the last four years since the pandemic because they were under hiring in all the years following the globalinantle crisis.
Do you have a recession in your forecast?
We do have a recession in our forecast.
And how deep it is not so.
It is it is concentrated in the second and third quarters. We do think the Fed ax. We think the FED goes four times this year. But it really just depends on if we can dampen down some of this uncertainty, if they could, if they could come out and be a little more clear in the way they.
Can economist, I mean, whatever anybody's political persuasions, Paul am I right, we're hanging headline to headline.
Yes, nobody in companies can't plan, nobody does capex in this environment.
Okay, Lisa to cut to the chase. China said we want Seattle. Boeing does a ton of work with Cathay Pacific in the rest and now they're saying we don't even want the parts from Bowing. And I keep getting notes from smart people saying it's a whole supply chain thing.
Yeah, and the supply chain is so integrated across borders as well, right, I mean things.
We can't but we can't do manufacturing your shop ei U owns saying analysis, what do you look at?
So we're looking at all the intermediate goods, right, So if you think about even manufacturing in the US, even the manufacturing we do here takes imported parts and puts that into the final goods.
Right.
So this is this is like the policies of Juan Peron in Argentina in nineteen forty five when he said, well, we're just going to make everything here in Argentina, Like if we keep going down this road, it does not end.
Well, that's the first time I've heard that. That's brilliant, man.
I saw Anne Marie in Buenos airesis last night. Yeah, she had the red ball main thing guy, and I think she looked like a Vina Yep. Yeah, you know, I was looking at it's it's a Vina and she's a pro.
She's very Madonna.
What do we do here with our labor market?
Here?
Do you fear that this were essentially a fully employed labor market with low four percent unemployment?
Where do you think that goes? Oh?
I think it has to go higher.
And we have a pretty I would say tempered forecast for the end of this year. If I were going to guess, the risk is to the downside, right, So we have it going up to four point six, I think four point eight, and then you get into when does it become nonlinear?
Right?
When does it go from four point eight up to five point five?
Right?
And how quickly does that move happen?
Because that's what happens if you really get into a vicious circle.
You're the first one I want to finish up with this. You're the first one on air to bring up what I'm focused on. And folks, this goes back to my major in college and all that you know a long time ago, and that is the pharmaceuticals. And I think people are like, oh, one, I can't spell it and it's too complicated, But the answer.
Is all of those pills we give our.
Family members, particularly our kids when they're sick, have materials from China. That's an accurate statement, right.
And think of all the people we have an aging population. Think of know a person over the age of sixty that doesn't take at least one prescription a day.
Very few.
I've never confronted that. I mean, I mean, if I look at this concert, I.
Put myself, I'm not over sixty, but I still I'm at the age where I'm taking one medicine a day at least you and Michael Backer.
But the bottom line constants Hunter is and I'm suggesting here maybe exaggerating this pharmaceutical debate, it's way more than just another press release or overlaw office statements.
Absolutely, it's really really significant. And when you combine that with the fact that we withdrew from who that we're gutting HH staff, it's really has significant ramifications.
Remember Robert Gordon.
One of the things Rise and Fall of American growth, he cites five things that contributed to productivity of the early nineteen hundreds of mid nineteen hundreds, and Nacillan is one of them. Why Because medicine help people get sick. I mean, get sick, get recover from being sick faster. It means fewer people die, and that improves a prop.
Back seeing which I remember the pin drops. Yep, consence, Thank you so much. Constance Hunter with EIU Here.
You're listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Catch us live weekday afternoons from seven to ten am Eastern. Listen on Applecarplay and Android Otto with the Bloomberg Business app, or watch us live on YouTube.
It's a week A banker names JP Morgan over in the investment side, Golden sacks JP Morgan Equity Trading ginormous City Group today two hundred and twenty nine thousand employees.
How about Paul published on the.
Bloomberg A bank with nine hundred and fifty one employees.
Towns River, New Jersey, Jersey Shore.
There we are, Jersey Shore joining us now from Ocean First Financial. I'm loving that we're doing this. Nobody told me that we're doing this.
This is great.
Christopher joins us from Ocean First Financial. It's back I guess to nineteen oh two, is point pleasant?
That's right?
Yeah, that's right, Okay, yeah, this is great. We are so mental about talking about these ginormous banks. Just simply in this modern age, how do you compete with super regionals in the ginormous.
Well, you know, it all comes down to your relationship with your customers. So you know, we were founded in nineteen oh two is the Point Pleasant Building and Loan Association of Point Pleasant Beach, so at the Bailey Building and Loan right over the year's Commercial Bank Diversified. We operate throughout the Northeast and what we've found is customers really value that ability to have a conversation with a bank or a trusted partner, someone who's going to deliver.
And you're going to compete on that, on doing what you promised you're going to do, doing it quickly and effectively. And if you do that, you're going to do just fine.
Chris, what's a typical corporate customer for your bank? What are they like and what are they telling you these days?
So you know, most of our clients are small of family owned businesses. They range, We cover a geography between DC and Boston. All sorts could be manufacturing, logistics services companies. And what they're telling us today is certainly there's a level of apprehension given all the volatility, but they're not overly concerned. You know, many of these folks took a master class in supply chain during the pandemic, so they've got you know, secondary and tertiary suppliers, they've got different
warehouse capabilities. They are concerned, and we're concerned about how long the volatility continues, but generally they're weathering it pretty well.
I mean, that's something that Tom has talked about a lot, which is corporations adapt and maybe that's kind of what you're seeing here. Are they putting projects on hold?
Are they waiting?
We've heard that from some of the larger companies out there that the larger banks. We've heard from even more Morgan standing seeing other clients are just saying just let.
Us wait a little bit. Are you seeing that at the local level.
Yeah, Paul, some are so. I'll use an example. We have a plastic manufacturer that was in the process of doing a significant expansion, buying some equipment, some of which was from Germany, someone was from China. The cost of the tariffs on that equipment would have raised the cost of their project. I think in the range of six hundred thousand dollars. They're likely going to continue with the project at some point, but it doesn't make sense to
just forge forward and pay those tariffs. They're going to wait and see. And if this is a short term thing, I don't think it's going to upset much. But the longer this goes on, the concern builds.
I'm fascinated by the day to day grind of a very small bank versus the major. Now on your website, you hired Zachary Hauser in northern Virginia. He's a Minnesota Vikings fan, which is I don't get.
It, but there it is.
Why would Zachary Hauser leave Bank of America, Wells Fargo, and the iconic Buffalo M and T Bank to join an itty bitty bank in Times River.
Yeah. So, Look, we built a following, and I think professionals from around our industry understand that the number one thing that's important to them is their ability to serve their clients. And although we're on the smaller side, you know, it's just about fourteen billion dollars of assets, we're a top one hundred US bank. That's both wonderful and terrible. Right, we should have more banks in this country, but that gives us the scale to be able to support very large businesses.
I mean, just this just came up. Paul just sent me an email.
Paul, I think a refine through ocean first shot. I think it says it, Sure, you can take your vest, but.
Down there exactly, you know, check it out. We'll find these guys. So, Chris, you mentioned you know, maybe we need more banks.
I think what a lot of people came to understand when we saw the regional bank crisis of several years.
Ago with SVB is Boyd.
We have five thousand regional banks around the country. No other country has that. Do we consolidate the regional bank business?
How do you think about that?
Well, certainly there's a need for efficiencies and consolidation. I think we'll see some of that. But on the other hand, you know, we provide a niche regional banks in general, where we're the main street lenders. So when you think about these family owned, privately held businesses, the majority of credit to that sector comes from regional banks like US between ten billion and one hundred billion dollars in deposits.
If you think back to COVID, we were the industry that jumped in and handled the PPP out of the gate. We were faster than the big banks. We made early commitments to doing it, and in our case, you know, we were out. We're one of the first lenders in the business getting dollars on the street to our clients. So we do need that kind of layer of banks that are much more responsive to their customers.
Do you read Jamie Diamond's annual letter?
Absolutely?
What do you take from mister Diamond's letter that you can apply to nine hundred and fifty one employees out of Thymes River.
There's a lot of commonality. So when you think about the principles that Jamie runs by and we believe the same thing. You want to have a fortress balance sheet. You know, look, we don't want a recession, but we're prepared for a recession. If you're running a bank, you better expect that one could happen. I think the discipline about doing the right thing by your customers, by your employees.
Probably my favorite story is the outsourcing of their security and then the reinsourcing of their security, because at the end of the day, you want to make sure that your people are connected to the customers.
Private equity, I mean private credit. How is that is that a.
Competitor to you in your market, because we've heard about it that they're competing with the JP Morgans of the world and taking business from them or maybe substituting for them.
Are you seeing in the smaller markets?
Absolutely, private credit as a competitor, But interestingly they're also becoming a big client of ours. So in many cases we are doing more and more business with private credit where we're lending along with them, coming into join credit facilities or lending to them either on a deal by deal basis and note on note finance or lending to the fund itself. So I think it's the fastest growth area for US.
I gotta ask, I mean, are you I mean, I don't mean to be rude, but I'm going to be rude. Are you guys helping out Jon bon Jovi with a soul kitchen?
Times Are of New Jersey, as a matter of fact, did a joint project with jompon Jovi in the Soul kitchen. We built out a new facility a couple of years back. We were one of four donors that helped make that possible. The Ocean First Foundation is made over fifty million dollars worth of grants in our communities and that was one of our special grants a number of years ago.
Did he sing a concerts for your mister Ward meeting.
We didn't get a concert, but he was a very gracious man.
So Chris Mayor, thank you so much. Greatly appreciate it. With the Ocean First team.
This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Listen live each weekday starting at seven am Eastern on Applecarplay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station, just say Alexa Play. Bloomberg eleven thirty said this before.
That there's like four hundred and twenty two books out on asset allocation and diversification. In the single read for adults both Global Wall Street and people engaged in the debate is from Sebastian Page. His day job as a tea rope. His night job is to sit in the Orioles dugout. He writes it, I don't like an iPad or whatever, and we celebrate today. His new book is that is out and it's a shift. It's called The
Psychology of Leadership. Sebastian Page joins us right now come on, you're doing a Malcolm Gladwell thing here.
Why are we doing this? Why are we doing this? Psychology of leadership? Did cal rip Can put you up to this?
Tom, that's a great compliment. I think Malcolm Gladwell is a great writer. And by the way, Tom, I don't write on iPads. That's pretty hard if you're a writer. I'm super excited the book is coming out today. I'm basically giving you an exclusive in the broadcast media, and there's a lot in there for investors, Tom, in particular sports psychology, which I find absolutely fascinating. You have to learn about losing, you know, Federer said in a statement
to students and commencement. He said, whatever game you play in life, you're going to lose. And so that applies to the psychology of leadership of investing as well. And you know what we do every day, Tom, in financial market differentiate between luck and skills. That's important too.
You've got a great idea here.
I saw in an old movie David Ogilvy, one of the giants of advertising.
There's no statue to committees in parks. You go over to Central Park and there's no statue. Paul Sweeney to a committee.
You've got a chapter in there on rethinking team leadership. Are we two team leadership now?
Sebastian page, you know, and psychology, there's a lot of research. It's become very popular to talk about introverts and extroverts, and so in an investment committee you can see those dynamics. The research is fascinating because it shows that when people take time to think about their decision on their own and do independent thinking without the influence of others in the room, and then bring those decisions to the table to debate them, the outcome on decision making is generally better.
So I find that fascinating. And in our assocation committee, what we do is before the meeting and we have one tomorrow, everyone submits their thinking, their views on tactical ass allocation independently and then we collate them and discuss them as a committee. This way you remove things like group think. Tom But you know, we all say we hate meetings. Meetings are essential. Collaboration is essential. At tiro Price.
Our collaboration style is I would say different. We see the exchange of ideas as a source of alpha, so it's super important for us.
I would point out the tiro Price invented this folks a few years ago. I mean, I mean they are kind of going to buy side Paul for fractions.
Debate Sebastian, how do you think what's the best way to learn leadership skills? I just came from a board meeting at the Business School of Duke last weekend and that was a big, big topic at the board level talking about leadership and how you teach that, how do you think that's best instilled.
So in the Psychology of leadership, I talk about several ways in which what we think about leadership is wrong. For example, you think a leader needs to be a great communicator. Well, the higher you go up the organization, the more you need to listen and be a good listener. We think leaders need to be decisive. A lot of really smart, effective leaders I've known knew how to look
at decisions where they needed strategic patients. That's often counterintuitive because we all want to be super decisive in investment management too, And so you also think the leader needs to be built consensus and be agreeable. But sometimes as a leader, you're not a leader if you're not making the tough decisions. So you also need to be to
be disagreeable. And the last one that's counterintuitive and that I think is a big part of learning or relearning leadership is this idea that the leader is unflappable and there's no stress there. And the reality and sports psychology shows that, and positive psychology too, is that stress increases performance up to a point and leaders have to be able to handle it and be vulnerable about it and to a certain extent, embrace it.
So there's a lot of stress out there in the marketplace, in the workplace, whether it's driven by technology, changing political trends.
How do leaders kind.
Of within their institutions deal with stress and kind of manage that throughout the organization?
So we all try to push it out right, We all go around thinking zero stress is where I'm going to get optimal performance. What I've learned from sports psychology. I explain this in the book. It's fascinating stress performance increases with stress up to a point, and there's a point of optimal performance that's not zero stress, whether that's for organizations or individuals, and then after that then you choke and you know, you get the negative effects of it.
There's a little stress out there right now, Sebastian page. What should our stress listeners and viewers on YouTube do in these stressful times? Do they radically shift their portfolio?
Do they tweak it? Do they go play golf?
Or do do they go watch The Last Place Baltimore Orioles sponsored by tiro Price.
Thank you for the plug, Dumb. I always appreciate it. And by the way, thank you for supporting my books, my first one in this one as well. You're very gracious to everyone in the industry.
Got well, thank you, Sebastian.
But you have a movie coming out in the first book right with DiCaprio.
I don't know if that movie would sell talk about asset allocation versification. Maybe there's a Hollywood version somewhere, but look the market as it's been sold up. We lost ten and a half percent in two days a couple of weeks ago. Those like we've only seen this or worse three times since World War Two, so we're going through real volatility.
Tom.
I know you like to watch at the Vicks. We went in above fifty. So we're in a situation where in our investment teams typically would be leaning in because this is when there's panic and now you want to have the opposite reaction and take advantage of higher risk premium.
But I would say right now on our platform, because markets are still expensive, and you know, earnings expectations are still high at eleven percent, and growth is slowing and was slowing into the tariff wars, we're actually closer to neutral in most of our portfolios, most of our discussions, even some investors are looking to sell counter rallies. So unlike other selloffs for the next couple months, I would sell on our platform, we're more.
Cautious sebastially in terms of leadership. Has it changed over time? Does it change over time? I mean when I was coming up in investment banking, you know, my vice president told me to you know, work this weekend to do this deal.
That's just what I did. Does that still work today?
I think it has changed. It has evolved. The cultures across industry, industries but in particular in the investment business have evolved, and in my mind, they're in a better place. I think, Paul. The thing that's missing that we need to talk about more is the meaning of what we do in financial markets, And to a certain extent, we have a little bit of a crisis of meaning if
you will, with index strategies and so on. To me, the meaning is that every day we go to work, we try to make money for our clients to give them better retirements. We're not solving you know, big cancer. We're not, but we're going to work to make money for our clients, and that's incredibly meaningful. We want to give them better financial lives. So I think that's the next step. I think our culture has evolved in our industry in a positive direction, more mutual respect, more building trust.
But the next step is to go back to the meaning of what we do in financial markets. It's hugely important. We don't talk about.
It, right, Sebastian.
A lot of people are sitting there staring at the ceiling or whatever in their car a loon, going what a god's name do I do with a depleted four to oh one? K Is it a time to be bold? I get so much. We had Katie Greifeld and she was brilliant on marketed caution. It's like, Okay, people are scared stiff, let's be cautious. And there are all these cautious strategies. How does Sebastian Page adapt to the marketing of fear within the industry.
There's a lot of fear, there's a lot of emotion. I was on a client webcast last week and we had about one hundred clients and one person in the Q and A wrote, Look, I'm panicking abo my four to one K I'm retiring in five years. Should I sell everything? And I think that's the wrong way to look at it. It's tried, you can put it in a fortune cookie. But those are the moments where you go back to the basics of staying invested for the long run, taking a longer run perspective. This is part
of being invested in markets. If you're willing to live through shorter term volatility, you get paid over time. And tom if you're if you're fifty five, you know, or sixty, I know you're much younger than that, thanks, But if you're in that spot, you're going to retire, you still have thirty years of life, Like, it's not the time to de risk your entire portfolio. Even if you're close to retirement. Yes, you're going to shift to generating income,
but you still you still need growth in your portfolio. Uh, even even in retirement. So this idea that you've got to go everything to cash or everything to treasuries. To me, it's just bad advice.
Sebastian, thank you so much. Congratulations on a book timely in this time of emotion and crisis, The Psychology of Leadership, Timeless Principles to improve your leadership of individuals, teams, and yourself. I'll get that out on Twitter and LinkedIn here Sebastian page of course at t rope price.
This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Listen live each weekday starting at seven am Eastern on Applecarplay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station, Just say Alexa Play Bloomberg eleven thirty.
Scott Stringer joins us right now, a former New York City Controller and a mayor. Kenned is a primary and there's an election in that. Let's get the primary out of the way right now. New York Times writes it up. The mayor's occupied, the governor's piled into the race, and the line is everyone's invisible. How does Scott Stringer get visible up to the June primary?
Wait till the mayor race actually started. You know, you mentioned my cousin Bella Abzug and the mayor's race of nineteen seventy seven when Ed Koch was barely a belip during that race until two weeks to go. And so everyone who thinks these races end in May, they don't. They actually end the end of June. And I have high favorable as a record of fiscal prudence and a government record that is unmatching this race. So I'm very confident going into the next couple of months.
Is your constituency off of Nayler and rest and you know the whole thing, is your constituency as organized is it was twenty years ago. Is there a machine in New York City where the Liberal party that progresses can get behind one candidate or is it chaos?
Look, I think times have changed in this city. I think people really want a mayor who knows what he or she is doing. They want someone who's confident, they want someone with experience. They're tired of the chaos. They don't want the current mayor Eric Adams cast, they don't want Quomo casts. They want somebody you would have you build a Blasio. I was controller during that time. Period I went after. I held up to Blasio accountable three hundred and sixty four days a year. I gave him
a day off due to Christmas. But I understand city agencies. I've exposed waste and corruption. I know how to run a government in the most competent way, and I think that's what people want. But they also want to live here, to have affordable housing, to have economic opportunity. People who come here understand how critical it is to want to stay here. We got to go back to the compact
of safety, good parks, clean air. This is all what a mayor has to do, and we need someone to start focusing on it.
From your perspective, Scoff, what is the state of the city today.
I think we're at a crossroads. I don't think people understand just how corrupt the last four years have been. And the first thing the next mayor has to do is literally reform the government. Bring in the best and the brightest, bring in people who are competent, who want to see a better city. Look, we've got to hire three thousand more cops. We have to align policing and a mental health insition. We've got to make sure that a strong mayor can take on Trump when he's going
against New York City. We need somebody who has that experience, not just pie in the sky promises. And I think I positioned myself in that way.
Metropolitan Transit Association, the congestion tax, what's your view there?
Look, I think gets working. I think people want to pay a little more to move the city.
We have a.
City government that depends on goods and services how they get in and out.
Of New York.
But look, let's make let's make it clear we have work to do. Congestion pricing helps some, but we have to build out a Fireborough transportation plan, and we have not done that yet. When I was supporting congestion pricing back when Mike Bloomberg was mayor, we always said we would look at Queen's and Staten Island and how we can close those transit deserts. So this is just the first step in a long transportation journey for New York City.
Imagine that mister Bloomberg, of course of Bloomberg LP is the founder of this radio station and signs my paycheck, you.
Know, exactly once a year. Good morning, mister Bloomberg. Scott.
I thought it'd be good to mention him.
Just that's good.
Yeah, and you mentioned him. I got to mention I'm not in speaking terms with them. But that's a separate issue. Scott Stringer. How can liberals be conservative and be anti crime? I mean, there's a whole modern theology. The last election was to me and eldamount of election. Long Island rose up and screened we're afraid. How do guys like you in a city that's become afraid support NYPD and support a tougher crime view.
Why do you think that people who are on the liberal side of the equation, or even the conservative side can't come together and recognize a problem when you see it.
It's not me, That's what we've got in this now.
But I got to tell you something. It's very easy for me to look at the problem and say, hey, we are having a trouble retaining the police officers we have. You know that the young police officers are leaving the police force in droves, and they're not retiring from policing. They're actually going to Long Island or Mosquito. States like Texas and Florida paid and well it's not so much pay as it is. How do you create a work
life balance. You know, we've gone from six hundred and fifty million dollars in overtime for policing to one point three billion. We have the lowest head count in the NYPD in generations. We're down to thirty three thousand cops. So what should we do. It doesn't matter whether you're a liberal conservative monitor. We've got to hire more cops. That makes financial sense and also from a safety perspective, makes sense. I want to put a cop on every train during in those high crime areas.
I want to.
Align policing with a mental health initiative because we see people languishing, suffering, dying on the streets when I take my two kids on the subway most mornings to go to school. You know what I see. I see what I saw in the nineteen seventies, people languishing all the side.
It must admit, well said, and it's actually true.
Scott's tringer here with the primary in June, in an election in November, of course, with his public services family service over the years to New York City.
Pulse reading, Scott, as were you to be elected, what would be the first one.
Hundred days of your administration?
What would be the focus.
We bring in a whole new government, we reform these city agencies. We have a clarion call for people who want to serve this city to come into this government and do the people's business. That's the first step. Second, I want to build the same kind of housing that was built in a different generation called Mitchellama Housing MITCHELLAMA
two point zero. I want to take our thousand vacant lots in the city and let's put to work for affordable housing so families can come here, go to our best universities, and stay here in a way that's affordable. I want to put three thousand cops back on the street. Want to make sure we align that program with a mental health initiative. I want to make sure that we have people taken the police test again. Eight thousand people took the police test. Do you know how many people
took the sanitation test. There's something wrong here. We're just not governing anymore. And also I want to make sure that we bring back something called quality of life. We'll have a Deputy Mayor for Quality of Life, will initiate quality stat will break down the silos of all these city agencies. I've ordered all of them. And I got to tell you mental health has to start talking to small business and vice versa. We got to get a handle on this government. You need somebody who actually knows
how to govern. And as borough president for eight years, as controller for eight years, I know the fiscal situation in the city like the back of my hand. I'm not over promising like others in this campaign. I'm just gonna be me and be the life long New York. I've always been to fix the city taxes.
Pretty much everybody you walk into on the street say, my taxes are too high.
What do you say, what's your tax.
Well, let's give people some value for those taxes. Let's go back to the compact we've always had in this city, which is if you come here, you pay a little more, but you're going to get a clean city, not going to have rats running around, garbage piled high. I mean we've got rats walking upright right now. They've come up to me on one occasion at night saying, hey, can you beat Cormo. I mean, this is a real crisis. People say, what am I paying for? What's the value
of my taxes? And we have to go back to making people understand that what they get in return is a real New York City that they'll never leave.
What is your policy on immigration and migration and the emotion here of people coming in that are new and troubled.
But we've always had people come, like my grandparents came to this city and came to this country. So let's not start filtering out who comes and who doesn't. Let's be very smart about this. Look, you bring gang members in here, get them out. I'd be the first one to stand and say, we want you out of here. No guns, no violence, but for people who flee persecution, for people, I mean, come on, we were so much better than this, and we can. You know, good government
means we can absorb people. We can absorb crises have to be a meltdown.
I gotta ask you one final question, Harry.
I think it's it's hugely emotional for everyone across this nation.
There is an.
Uproar among liberals over a generational shift, as identified by Senator Schumer, over to something new. John Ferrell mentioned at Glenn Young kein of Virginia. The Utah event of Senator Sanders the other day helped me here with what the new generation of Democrats look like.
Look, we've always had a new generation of Democrats. You mentioned the starting at the show, very very smart, right, Bella Abzug was a new generation.
You can't imagine a shock, and this mouthy woman was.
It was the progress.
And look, I was a twelve year old kid running around campaigning with her during the Vietnam War. And you know what happened. A few years into her term. The US News and World Report, not the most liberal newspaper or magazine, named her the number three most competent and effective member of Congress. I'm am, I embrace the new generation, but right now we need somebody in New York City
who represents vision, experience and competence. Make no mistake, this is a moment where we have to rate the ship so that the new generation can come in. Right, do it all generations?
Someone say you just describe Governor Cuomo. I mean, the basic idea is he's been around, his father's iconic. You're up against Cuomo. What's the biggest stetriment there?
Look, he's chaotic, and he's not pro New York City, and he doesn't like people, and he's running the worst kind of campaign. That makes him unelectable in my mind, but no one's going to realize that until June first. And I hope to come back on this show as your mayor elect and talk to you, especially about the history of mayoral politics and what went wrong in his campaign. But I am not feeling.
Him disgustering to thank you so much for running here for mayor.
This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Listen live each weekday star It's seven am Eastern on Apple Coarclay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also watch us live every weekday on YouTube and always on the Bloomberg terminal for their newspapers.
To the astronaut, Lisa.
Imagine I could dare to dream.
Good Mardy, guys.
So yeah, So the first thing I want to start with is Netflix, and they have some ambitious goals.
This was from the Wall Street Journal.
They're saying that it hopes to achieve a one trillion dollar market cap. Currently their cap is almost at about four hundred billion. They want to also double its revenue by twenty thirty. Executives have this goal of tripling Netflix is operating in come by twenty thirty from ten billion last year. So this was all in this annual business review, meaning last last month that some people were in.
They told this to the Wall Street Journal, so they got the insight info on it.
How do they do this? They raise?
Well, that's what I was going to ask Lisa, how did they do it? I mean, I mean, I think they're going to raise the prices.
I think they're going to ramp up, continue to ramp up their advertising in newsps, gribers, in other parts.
Of the ads within the video. Yeah, yeah, stards within the video.
Yeah, you can.
Different tiers, so you can do the cheaper version and you'll pay less, but you get the ads with it.
I mean, four hundred billion market caps, stocks of five percent this year, but up fifty percent.
For Netflix.
Oh, I don't know.
I mean, I don't know.
I don't know.
Yeah, I don't know.
I'm today.
Ye, you just think I'm gonna go.
But eighteen bucks?
So what would you pay? Would you pay twenty four ninety nine?
No?
I don't think.
I think I would have to go for the commercials, even though my kids are like, we don't do commercials.
I don't care, I don't.
I mean, So that's that iPhones, right, We've been hearing different stories about how much the price of an Apple iPhone can go up because of all this tariff uncertainty. Business Insider actually went to all these Reddit posts people talking about it, and they're saying what they're doing to avoid these pricey upgrades save money on the device. For example, some are doing the maintenance now right, they're they're doing the upgrade now, But others are keeping up with the
battery life because that's what seems to go first. When you have your phone. It's always like, oh, the battery is dying. I need an upgrade, And they're saying, no, you just need a new battery. So they're saying you could do something like that. It's about ninety nine bucks or so you can get the new battery.
But something else they're doing.
They're saying iPhones come with this limited one year warranty that you might not even.
Know that you have.
So it has it, so go check it out. And they also have this Apple Care plus thing. It's about fourteen bucks a month.
I do Apple Care.
You do do the Apple Care. See, I haven't.
Even heard of that.
I have to get it today because the crews, the repairs, the replacement.
If you lose it.
I mean if you get them on the phone, they treat you differently than just the numbers, is what they would.
Did you know you're paying fourteen dollars Worset.
Apple in two weeks. We don't have a clue.
I don't know.
We have no clue where the economy is.
You know, the uncertainty of your folks off the chart. Good morning, Nick Booth out of Stanford one.
What do you okay?
You touched on this a little bit, all the talk right Rory McRoy victory the Masters. I have the numbers for you because you were talking about the ratings and how much people watching it.
CBS that it.
Attracted twelve point seven million viewers Sunday. That's a thirty three percent increase from last year when Scotti Sheffield he won. It's the most watched match up, yes, since twenty.
Eighteen Sheffield he played with them Scheffler Scheffler. Uh so it was the most watched one, yes, twenty eighteen.
So I mean this tournament really needs the boost too. Then then the article kind of gets into that as well.
Boy, I don't know what they changed, Yeah, one of the other I think it might be the British I'm not sure the Open Championship as they call it, not sure, but they've got them spaced out pretty much throughout the year.
Okay, is that all you got today?
I did?
Well?
You know what you talked about the Blue Origin playing.
Yeah? How that?
Well?
You know what, a lot of people have been giving them some backlash, Gail King, Lauren Sanchez, a lot of celebrities because they're saying it was commercial lies and it is a commercial flight.
It's for rich people. I get it. I'm not going to pay one hundred and fifty thousand Base Bay.
Why are they there?
Why are they giving him garbage?
I'm serious, because they're just saying that they were sellouts. They also have the environmental factor for it. Does you know it's no point just going up, going into the environment.
We upset the desert of Texas when the capsule landed.
This is the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast, available on Apple, Spotify, and anywhere else you get your podcasts. Listen live each weekday, seven to ten am Easter and on Bloomberg dot Com, the iHeartRadio app, tune In, and the Bloomberg Business app. You can also watch us live every weekday on YouTube and always on the Bloomberg terminal,