Surveillance: Virus Impact on Americans With Gallup's Younis

the linkages of the developed world to emerging markets. Carmen, John and Lisa really want to dive into emerging markets. I totally agree with them. But I've got to ask you in your magisterial effort with Ken Rogoff back to the Spanish Armada. I remember reading your chapter on this time is different in the Spanish Armada. What does your tone say about pandemics? What in your study of eight

hundred years with Ken, what did you learn about pandemics? Uh? Tom, I recently wrote a piece for it for Projects Syndicates, basically saying, this time it's truly different because we haven't lacked pandemics. Uh. But in history, but the kind of policy reactions to try to save lives by basically shutting down economy. Is this is this is this time is different, it's new. So the idea of using path pandemics to throw light on what's going on, I don't think it

will work. The major one that influenza of nineteen eighteen was during World War One. We had nine real GDP growth in nineteen eighteen because is of the war effort, not because you know, there were measures like what we're seeing taken today. So it's limited, very limited what we

can draw. Professor Einhardt Adam Two's a Columbia professor, wrote a piece for Foreign Policy that was pretty stark, and it said the coronavirus is the biggest emerging markets crisis ever, saying that the pandemic is starting to topple one of the pillars of the globalization era. His argument was that this time is different, as you say, in part because the developed market, the developed world cannot assist the emerging

markets right now, given what we're seeing. Do you agree with him that this is the biggest crisis ever facing that that sector, Well, it's certainly as big as the nineties, which was very big. Uh, and it has the added dimensions that it goes well beyond its origins are not in the economy, but its origins already helped. So yes,

it's it's it's a stark start situation. Professor Jonathan here, we've talked many times, just to jump in if I can forgive me, I've talked many times about dollar denominated debt building up in emerging markets over the last ten years or so. Are you starting to see those problems materialized now in the face of a strong good dollar, a shutdown in various economies, and a collapse for the

backdrop going forward from here? Uh. Look, it's the the overused term perfect storm does apply because don't forget that underlying as the coronavirus wasn't big enough. We also have the Saudi Russia War. Many of these countries are commodity producers, oil producers and commodity producers. So they have, going to your question, a massive shortage of dollars because their exports. The export values are way down, export volumes are down,

and they do have dollar debt. So the expectation and that debt servicing, uh, and that and defaults and restructurings are going to be on the rise. Is something to you know be expected. We thought many people, not including myself, and many people would come on this program, Professor and question dollar privacy, dollar hegemony in the next economic downturn. We finding out that the dollar is the place to

be once again, even in this downturn. Well, Uh, it's funny you should mention that Ethan el Setki, a former student, Ken Roboff, and I have had several recent pieces on this very issue. And indeed, what we find is that in the ten years after the two thousand eight two thou nine UH financial meltdown, UH, the dollar gained a lot of ground internationally as the reserve currency. For two reasons. One is UH, the euro UH fell back UH concerns

about its sustainability. It fell back it. And the second is Chinese lending, which was has been massive while over the world is dollar denominated. So it's Chinese, but it's not in Remember, for the most parties in dollars. So the dollar, Yes, it's the dominant currency and no evidence

to the contrary at this stage, so, professor. But tiling this forward from a market's perspective, dollar denominated emerging market stat just had its worst quarter since nineteen Are we going to see more of the same and a rash of defaults that rivals what we saw during the nineteen eighties and Latin America. It's very possible. It's very possible now. UH. I have been hoping that the international community, the multilaterals, with the major government moved towards a uh A death

stand still, you know, a moratorium. Before that the false materialized because after all the everybody's incomes. This is that the household at the firm level, at the country level has been paralyzed. So debt payments should also likewise be temporarily UH suspended. But absence that, it's already it's already happening. You're seeing the down the downgrades in the credit rating agencies, with countries moving into junk and near junk UH status coming.

Always great to get your thoughts on this program. We appreciate time this morning, our thoughts with you and yours. Come and run. How there Harvard Kennedy School Professor Cricket introduction to our steam guest. He has is the view of America more than anyone I know. Mohammed units with us of the acclaimed Gallop polling organization. Mohammed, you don't look at the horse race. As you look at the fabric of the country, it's a country flat on its back.

What portion of America can't get to the next rent payment? According to our estimates and based on the polans we were doing last week, percent of employ of those employees say that their employers cut jobs, reduced hours, throsen hirings. Sixty two percent say that the their financial situation has already been affected by it. A third the one and seventies million workers in the US cannot get to the next paycheck. They're living literally page xcupation. That sixty to

forty million Americans, UM. And that's just the workers, so you can imagine their families. U. At this point, I think even with reporting just this morning out of Italy on some of the social unrest that now is becoming a concerned UM. I think after we all think through the public health issues, what we're trying to do at Gallup is also attacked. How Americans are feeling UM and the impact this will have on social just disintegration. Unfortunately

in some situation. I'm coming to you, Mohammad from uh Central work in New York. It is an island of prosperity. I'm looking down at billionaires Row seven skyscrapers. This is not America. What is the distance of Governor Culomo's New York State or Washington, or even the burgeoning crisis in Atlanta or Miami in Boston. What's the distance of those urban areas in this pandemic from the rest of a more rural, more suburban America. UM. We always see very

dramatic differences. UM. Once seemed to point out you mentioned Governor Clomo. UM. And a lot has been made about leadership and how leadership is doing in this crisis. We consistently find the Americans are much more positive on than a local government at any level compared to the federal government. Americans are now most an approval of health care workers and their local hospitals in this crisis. UM. How Americans react to the situation, of course, depends on what's happening locally.

It's interesting that the federal government apparently today is going to roll out UM guidelines on how local government can also react based on their local reality. This is a huge country. UM. When we talk about the United States to ultimately talking about you know, fifty different countries with different realities. The economics that hurt that's happening across the country. And now you know, even with the social distancing, uh you know, seven to eight out of Pan Americans on

pretty much every metric now are basically social distance. And when we started tracking this, there was only about people that said they were going to be changing their lives. At this point, everything is uh so the reality of not being able to make that paycheck. These is the the public health concerns, even just locally, I think are going to become the crux of the issue for leadership um and it's what we're going to try very closely.

Is the other thing is just a well being. I mean people we've seen now reports of domestic violence uh increasing in some localities. How people are managing the stress of not only the economic challenges, but also trying to jump work if you can, virtually having children at home, not having educational institutions operating. All of these things we know from our research from other crises over the past

few decades have a real impact on how society. Paul, let me report here on online learning at the Keen Household. We're in a free period and Minecraft is being play, and Minecraft is being played. I'm sure it is Mohammed give us a sense of you know, how much longer does he? The most Americans feel like this, we'll go on this coronavirus disruption at this point to see one for scent of Americans thinks that this will go on for a few months. Actually, excuse me, fifty The numbers

are coming in daily. We started off with about half of Americans. It's expecting it to go on for a few months. These numbers actually predate President Trump's UM change of course, if you will, in expending UH the isolation guidelines, so we probably would expect that number to go up. That being said, Americans are also overwhelmingly in support of the rescue package compared to other UH stimulus packages like

harpings and then other situations of crisis. Today there be seven percent of Americans to prove of it, it's by partisan of who will actually Democrats to present one are mostly are more likely to support it than than Republicans. UM. But this again it gets back to UM what the larger picture means. I think for people's pocketbooks of Americans right now, think it's very likely that the United States that this will send the United States into our procession.

If you will so people are really planning for the worst or expecting the worst, whether they have the wherewithall to really get through it. I think it's really up for graphs um. I mean in terms of the local learning or talent learning. Actually just came up in my four year old. He's on a ZOW meeting with his other students, uh and teachers and even just for education. It's amazing how a lot of this was possible before technologically. But again, see a situation where the crisis pushes us

over the edge, right right, it's been hugely valuable. Mohammed units, thank you so much for your good work at Gallup Today. However, is in the securities analyst business one of those wonderful people that not only writes the reports that actually goes in the stores. He can't go in the stores now they're all closed. He is with Cowen and joins us today, Oliver, there's an American Eagle two blocks down from our world headquarters. It's closed. How critical is that they open as soon

as possible. It's really critical just because the majority of sales still happen in store. So for all these retailers, they're in survival mode because they're their number one source of revenue is is at risk and for the foreseeable future, there's so much uncertainty. I mean, the employees are load across Macy's gap and polls um it's it's uncertain wind

stores will open as we pull executives. It could be four or more months, and our analysis indicates that liquidity is at risk after five So one in four Americans work in retail, and retail really played the important art in the consumer, so that this is something we're watching. And we continue to see a bifurcation where people who need household essentials and food and beverages that's really obviously worked ing, discretionary purchases are are less important, and at

home fitness is working too. Oliver. There's a huge amount of confusied confusion at the moment over whether Sames who decided to follow employees before the aid became available from Washington d C, whether they're eligible for any of those loans, any of those grants um from the fiscal aid package that went through over last week, are they If you

got any clarity on that whatsoever. Yeah, I think as I talked to CEOs and um my contacts on the business everybody's analyzing it closely and logging on and looking um with with no specific conclusions. So I think it's a it's a point of transition where where people are

really seeking out what what what's available. Also, when you furlow a worker, there's different standards by state regarding unemployment, So I don't think there's a blanket answer regarding allocating these resources to where they're needed most um to be frank and we're just seeing all kinds of different efforts to support workers and in places of business in the

time of need. More than five hundred thousands that is the number of furloughed or laid off retail employees in the United States, Big retailers across the board closing down. And I'm looking right now at some of the names Victoria's Secret, I'm looking at gap Nemon, Marcus. I'm struggling to understand how much this entire episode is going to

force companies that were already struggling to the break. I mean, how much is just just accelerating a process that would have been underway already with some of these struggling retailers, versus actually killing really viable and strong and Frankly, thriving businesses. Yeah, I agree with you regarding what's happening next. It's the big getting bigger. So we're moving towards the world of Walmart, Target, Amazon,

and then mega players like LVMH. So consolidation is one key theme with with related m and a of some good brands that aren't necessarily as profitable are good valuations. UM too, I think we'll see store closures and permanent changes in malls. We already had struggling malls about more of malls UM are B in C class and that's a big issue. And then rethinking rent um the rent expenses will need to come down UM and this will

a lot depend on the pace of recovery. So going forward, UM, we believe stores will be closed until May at least, if not longer UM. And the pace of the consumer coming back will be a big question mark is it VU or L And that will matter for long term viability. But department stores were already struggling. The big theme I also want to mention is this curbside pickup and rethinking retail in terms of contact lists and what does experiential

mean in a contactless world. So we've already been seeing the digital innovation with zero check out and curbside pickup that's accelerating by a couple of years now, Oliver, I want to pick up on the consolidation theme that you talked about. Gap, for example, offered information to employees about getting jobs at Walmart. I'm wondering, I mean, what kind of consolidation. What are some names that you see? I mean, is Walmart going to go buy Gap? Anything can happen.

I think we're we're seeing is um. You know, Walmart is the biggest grocer and it also sells lots of soft goods and essential the businesses grocery and Amazon grocery and apparel um and and rethinking, and Amazon is even interested in luxury good So retail has really been fueled by scale because even before this, the digital investments, the supply chain investments, the need for speed um has really

been the domain and easier for larger players. The artificial intelligence data rethinking data scale matters for the training models and the algorithms. So that's something to think of and and anything can happen. I think every retailer is working together, and this is also a time for the industry to come together to reallocate resources where they're needed. And clearly, um, there's so many stockouts and labor is necessary as the whole country gets ready olive right now, John wants to

take us in a different direction. You know, as you look at retail across America. We had a listener our call in vet Bille was barking earlier and Vet Bill wants to know. Our dog wants to know what are we gonna do with Chewi? I mean, Chewie is hugely successful. Is Chewy a no brainer for Amazon? Well, I think the reality is this at home experience and taking care of your dogs. And also health and wellness is a huge theme and rethinking wellness. Um, you know stock we

like is peloton. I was just on the bike. And also we're seeing concepts like Neo Yeah, I was on the bike. You know, you know life will be about self care as well. Listen to you, Okay, okay, folks, I just got We're gonna stop the show here. We got aim to do this. John. The number one argument of the last three days in our isolation, our kingdom of isolation is someone in the house is demanded we get a peloton. What happens when the gym reopens again.

That's what I said, thank you, thank you. I think a lot of people thinking in the same way. One thing that I think might change, though, Oliver, and it came up in conversations that I was having recently as well, the rush to go to services like rent the Runway through where you're essentially a sharing clothes with a monthly subscription. Of course those clothes are cleaned, Oliver. Many companies were looking at following Rent the Runways practice through last year

and the great success it had. Are we going to start to question that in a massive way as we come through this and come out of it. Well, as we come out of it, I think what will happen is we have a consumer that's going to be laser focused on value. So as you think about rental and um and what it can do as well as a

re commerce it's forty tw eight percent off. So we already had the t J Max's of the world be really successful in taking share from Macy's and full price department stores, but you know, repricing these goods and offering value. Of course, the Rent the Runway has a very sophisticated cleaning facility, and I think people will want less stuff.

I think people will care about sustainability and environment and everybody's rethought um what experiential means in terms of staying home and spending time with with loved ones and others. We have a chance, always great, get your thoughts on the show. Come and see your equity research analysts on the retail outlook and on social distancing. Let's get to the first conversation of the morning. Shall we please to say that Jaha Chanleus joins us now Credit Sweets head

of f FX and macro trading strategy. You have always great to get you on the program. Let's talk about it, shall we? Shahab dollar strength back on the table. Last week we thought there was some science of success from the Federal Reserve. We're saying signs of stress once again. I don't think so. I think what we're seeing right now is a much anticipated month end flow linked to changing hedge ratios, which this might happen to mean that

dollar buying is in order. There's there's an anticipation that once this is outsd the way, the market will start to look again at the underlying drivers at a dollar at this point, and that for now more broadly seems to be the capacity of FED in particular to to provide dollars to the market via its various facilities, but also hopes for more US fiscal stimulus, which historically would have been seen as a dollar positive, but at the moment um this is seen as something that again helps

put more dollars into the system. So as long as these factors are driving the market, I would imagine dollar strength to be relatively short term, and then after that for the dollar to again start to trade in line with markets. More broadly, if we're settling for the end of the first quarter, what is your positioning for the beginning of the second quarter? What is the Jalones strategy? Given the total chaos we're living in It's it's obviously

a very tactical market. Do we can't pretend to try to have a fully strategic position for an entire quarter when realized volatility is as as as high as it is.

We're taking each week as it comes. At this point, what I would say, though, is that the market is already a pricing and fairly negative outcomes for the second quarter in terms of data, So to undershoot these negative outcomes in terms of actual outcomes is actually going to be quite a tall order now at this point, um, And I do believe that there's still more of a focus at this point on the possibility of more stimulus measures.

For example, Japan has just announced or is looking at announcing a very large package of its own as well. So as these come through, I believe that these still help, at least within the g tent space. The pro risk currencies, the likes of Australian dollar the Canadian dollar in the very years term, UM, But I think in the in the medium terms, to see a real turnaround in these types of currencies, we do need to see other factors comes through. So for example, we do need to see

oil prices base. We do need to see virus infection growth rates come down so that markets can believe transport around the world can resume again. These are the types of things that they are still the big unknowns from

medium some perspectives. So those helicopters that Tom Keaton seeks to talks about all week and has been talking about for the past few weeks dropping money into his triple triple leverage cash fund, they're going to continue and in the short term maybe that won't necessarily debase the dollar over the long term, though, how does the US get out of this other than just printing money and leading to inflation and in the basement of the dollar, well, look, I think the key here is effect at the end

of the day is a relative price um. And the truth of the matter is all the other central banks are doing the same thing in one form of another, exactive in what you know would have been seen as very difficult a few years ago, which is emerging markets doing qunstantiveas ing um without necessarily seeing their currency is getting crushed. You know, that's also happening right now, so

across the broad range of emerging markets. So the truth of the matter is it's it's very difficult to look at the dollar in isolation from that perspective, given that everyone else is doing the same thing. So when we talk about debasement, it could be the case that we see down the line a general rise in price levels around the world. Basis, that's not necessarily going to mean that the dollar falls against other currencies in a in a material way. Um. Given that it's a very common

policy at this point in time. If someone comes to you shab and says, I have a belief oil will recover in some way or form. What is the best way to express strong oil. Yes, that's a good question.

I think. You know, if you look at things like futures prices, futures, because the situation is that there's so little storage available for all right now, it means that futures prices are actually much higher than the spot prices, and therefore, trying to buy you know, oil for future delivery in futures, for example, you'll be paying a much higher price than the spot price anyway. So I'm not sure that there is a very efficient and simple way

of getting around this conundrum. If you have access to cheap storage, you could try to buy Uh. Yeah, I have that. We've we've moved, after thought out in her bedroom, barrels of oil. Jerm, we're not all big clash. Har we can't go and get a super tanker. Let's talk about foreign expect Let's talk about foreign exchange and what

you're seeing in the dates around of China. Some confusion in the p M S. The p M I s it's not the twin of g d P, it's a derivative of of g d P, and all you're asking people in China at the moment, are things better this month than last month? And the answer to that question is yes, But does that main output is recovered what it lost in February. The answer to that is no. Social hab talked to me about the trajectory you're looking for for the Chinese economy. Yeah, that's a that's a

very good point. So according to our credits with China economists, by his calculations, all the all the big jump in the pm MYA shows in March is that the level of activity is not only nine, isn't only twenty below it's peak levels as opposed to in February. So it's still a long way down, it's just improved a bit. So in that context, we don't believe that the Chinese currency is on the verge of of of a dramatic recovery at this point. Ultimately, China just this week cut

rates again and added more money to the system. Again to your points around helicopter money. Um, you know, even in China, where there is already a large people fear, a large debt problem potentially brewing down the line, what's still going on is more money being pumped into the system, So we do believe that that will keep the REMEMBER somewhat contained. And what applies to the Remember applies across

the emerging market space. So for those looking for a dollar turnaround, it's easier, though view, to play that within the detain complex, within the higher quality currencies, you could say, than some of the the risky occurrencies at this point

in time that are still plagued by weak growth. Um China as one of those guests, but but again in Latim as well, for example, plagued by weak growth, but have maybe weaker underlying fundamentals at a structural level as well, and are still experimenting with with quintitive easing as well in some cases. Brazil is another one that might do this, for example. So these these put huge question marks these kinds of issues around these risky occurrency job always gad

skate thoughts on a program. I'm best to you and yours, johap John credit Sway, his head of f X and Macro training Strategy. Let's begin our labor analysis. Normally, folks, we really wouldn't do this on a Tuesday, but we're gonna do it today. Break the rules with Julia Carnado Macro policy perspective. Quoted I believe in the Washington Post lead article this morning on the American economy. Julia, good morning.

What number do we expect Thursday and claims? Is it a guess or can you come up with some form of statistic? Well, it's a guest. Uh, it's it is the leading indicator. So all we're basing it on is um the reports that we're getting from individual states. But it looks like we're going to have another record breaking number. So the three point two million last week is not

a one off. We're probably going to see another maybe two million in claims this week, UM, and that's going to translate into men the millions uh loss of payrolls in the April report, not the report throughout this Friday, but the following report comes in early May. Julia. The expectations are getting increasingly dire. Goldman Sachs came out with a forecast a couple of weeks ago saying the US

will shrink by an annualized in the second quarter. Now coming out saying it's going to be thirty four percent and saying unemployment will soar to fifteen percent by mid year. What are you looking for in the data to either confirm that dire view or that perhaps gives you a sense of what we're looking at. So claims is probably one of the more reliable indicators we have right now and timely. Uh So, I think how high it goes

and how persistent that is. Obviously, in this episode, we're bringing forward a contraction um in a really unusual way. Um So the duration of this matters a lot, and then how much it still go over from the immediately impacted sectors hotels, restaurants, the travel industry into other sectors. Uh is something that we're going to be watching for. So high frequency indicators are much more valuable, uh than

than usual in the current context. You say, bringing forward a contraction, and when people talk about how unusual this is a forced shutdown in order to fight a pandemic, do we have any sense or or the number is going to give us any clues as to how quickly some of these people can get their jobs back. You know, it really is going to be dependent on how effective

all of these stimulus measures are. So I think with the two trillion and the four trillion in fiscal stimulus and the four trillion in lending capacity at the fed. How quickly can that get out the door? How much, how effectively does that serve as a bridge loan for businesses so that they can stay in business and restart operations in a timely way. Um I don't think it's going to be a v The shutdowns may start to end, but then I think we're going to resume normal activity

very cautiously and gradually. UM So, I think it's going to be more of a you And once we really get to address this virus and test and develop a vaccine, then we can really resume activity with with confidence, and that probably won't be util next year, Junior. On a program like this, we're really fortunate to have one of

the most sophisticated smart audiences. I think there is anywhere in the world of media worldwide on a program like Bloomberg Surveillance, but we have a broader audience when things get stressful in markets and we have the kind of draw down we've had over the last couple of weeks, and I think we need to do a better job of trying to translate what the feed is actually doing. So a headline just across the Bloomberg just moments ago,

and I'll read it out the batim. It said, the FEED is launching a temporary repo facility with foreign central banks, the facility and our central banks to repo treasuries for dollars to facility. See is an alternative dollar source to selling securities? Can you translate what they're doing for a much wider audience and why they're doing what they're doing? So, UM, the dollar is the reserve currency of the world us UM. How we UH engage in international trade, it's it's contracted

and executed in dollars. So what we often see in a crisis is that there's a shortage of dollars globally. UM. A lot of borrowing and commerce and investing is done in dollars UH. And when you have a dollar crunch like that, it can turn from you know, a recession or a contraction and activity into a financial crisis very quickly because the dollar shortage can trigger default and de leveraging.

So I think this is what the SET is trying to address by providing that dollars liquidity through global central banks. That we did that with the swap lines, now we're doing it with ripo UM. So I think it's again trying to short circuit. This what is clearly going to be a deep and painful recession from becoming a full blown financial crisis. And that's been the objective of all of these various activities that that has been engaged in.

And to follow on from John's Wilfriend question, Dr Coronado, is the idea here is to get out in front of crisis. And as we've all studied that crisis comes from emerging markets. Are we at a point where the emerging markets in dollar shortage are so fragile and they don't have the power against the great reserve currency that they're gonna need I m F assistance. Soonest um, more than likely we will see some countries in that level of distress. Um. Again, I think that the said has

been very aggressive, very early. So that was one of the lessons learned from two thousand and eight. You don't hold your ammunition back, um, And I think that will help um. But nonetheless, I think we're already seeing signs of distress. And UM, you know that this is unfolding

with unprecedented speed. Uh So you know, whereas as you were saying earlier, Tom, just a few months ago, the picture looked pretty benign um, boy, have things changed, and so UM, I think even some of all of these efforts aren't likely to be universally effective in in presenting

all distress. There will be distress in some countries. And back in the U S. There's a question about the world's largest economy and the safety net that the consumer had, the strong consumer where some reports towards the slock of Deutsche Bank in particular coming out and saying they don't have six hundred dollars on average to cover an emergency, and people are looking to the April one rent which may or may not get paid. Do you have a sense of just the sort of resources of the consumer

right now? How strong the household balance she is heading into this? Well? I think this is where the distribution of income is relevant. Um, We household have strong balance sheets, but that those strong balance sheets are concentrated at the high end of the income spectrum. Meanwhile, it is the lower end of the income spectrum that is most vulnerable and experiencing the greatest job losses. So UM, many households,

most households don't even have four hundred dollars emergency. Households can't pay rent on April turns at least, I'm so glad you brought this up at Dr Cornada. You go right to the heart of the matter. Everyone listening to this to the show with or without means maybe they have family members that can't get that four hundred dollars of that rent check for April. Why is our politechs pussy footing around with an alphabet soup of politically generated programs.

What we need is massive income substitution. Yes, you're absolutely right, Tom, and some other countries have been much more aggressive on that front, providing rent and mortgage payment holidays for their consumers for a number of months. That is what you need to bridge Uh, this cash crunch for consumers. Uh, and we have not, Julia. You're a huge student of history on this. Where where did this come from? Is this some lackian Calvinist ethos from the nineteenth century? Is

it some pseudo Victorian psychology? People? And many folks this is Republicans and Democrats they gotta pay the rent? Yeah, yeah, No, I I don't. I can't explain the political rationale for this, tom Um. And even the Fed has it in its power to be more aggressive on this front. They could mandate Uh, they have issued supervisory guidance to banks to

encourage forbearance and um payment holidays. They could be a little bit more forceful on that front and really find a way to finance a payment holiday for agency mortgages and sort of mandated for the banks and figure out the financing uh that's required. I think we could see a stronger effort from the BED to set the standard there and get that use the financing in the creative way to address that cash crunch. And I hope that's the direction they start to go in, because it certainly

is within their power. Judy, thank you and thank you for this morning. Thank you for taking the time to speak with us. We really appreciate it. Judy krn Out of that macro policy perspective, FUNDA and president as well. Thanks for listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast. Subscribe and listen to interviews on Apple Podcasts, SoundCloud, or whichever podcast platform you prefer. I'm on Twitter at Tom Keane before the podcast. You can always catch us worldwide. I'm Bloomberg Radio