Surveillance: Unemployment Rate Is Going Nowhere, Sweeney Says

with us to top Markets and many other things. Rupert Harrison, black Rock multi Asset Strategies portfolio manager and also former chief of staff to a Chancellor Georgia Osborne. So thank you both for joining us. Think you more. Let me start off with you. How does the Prime Minister get this through Parliament? Well, I think that she's got also

very busy two and a half weeks. But to do that, we expect the vote to be on the twelfth of December, and I think what she's doing strategy is to appeal to our constituents, actually to appeal to members of the public. My inbox is absolutely full of constituents rightly having their say about this very important deal, and people from around the rest of the country, but I'm going to concentrate on my constituents um at the moment that the views

are obviously sort of dived into three. There are those who want a second vote, there are those who are happy to leave with no deal. But there's actually a vast amount in the middle who are saying, you know what, We've had two years of this. We need Brexit to be settled. No deal is ever going to be perfect. Please, will you just say say yes and get on? And people are really interested. I mean I thought over the weekend back in my constituency. It came up absolutely everywhere,

any kind of ent. I was at people who are not considered to be political. They were really really keen to discuss it and to get my views, and I was it's really important I hear from them. But looking at the numbers, how difficult is it if you look at parliamentary arithmetic for her to get it through parliament, and what happens that she doesn't. Is there a second referendum attached to it? Well, I think, look, of course

it's going to be challenging. There are a number of my colleagues in the Conservative parties, whereas opposition MPs who said they will not vote for the deal. Two and a half weeks is a very long time in politics, as I think, as we see the Brexit, things changed by by the hour. So I don't think we should say this is not going to get through at the moment. But I'm doubtingly it's going to be challenging. That difficulty speculating is you know what happens if it doesn't get

through Parliament. There is no majority in Parliament for a no deal Brexit, so parliament MP's will have to work out what are we going to do in order to make sure that doesn't unfold. I also don't think there's a majority for a second vote. It would take a long time to put that in place. What question would be asked? What do we do if the result is no different or any marginally different from twenty sixteen? It just creates longer term uncertainty. So I think it's right

in a way. The PM is doing the right thing, which is concentrating day by day on making the case for her deal. What happens the day after Parliament votes this down? That is a very good question. I mean, I think we can't absolutely rule out the possibility that Theresa May will manage to get the votes for this deal. You've got to remember the last two years the amount of comment true I've heard saying a deal would be impossible. You know, neither side would be able to make the

compromises necessary. So we have this crucial fact now that there is a deal on the table. Your question is the right question, though, because I do think the probability balance of probabilities favored the deal failing. I think what happens next depends crucially now on the margin of that failure. I think if if the deal is lost by just ten to twenty votes, then I think the game is

still on. I think there's a possibility, despite the fact that EU leaders say there isn't of small tweaks, particularly to the Future Relationship Document, maybe two parts of the withdrawal Agreement, and maybe that combined with some marketing business pressure, might get it over the line. I think if the margin is much bigger, then we are into Plan b's and I think the interesting questions then are is Theresa May able to stay around to to lead that Plan B?

And what does that plan be look like? I think it is something much more like an E a ffter type arrangement trying to win over some labor votes. NICKI Morrigan, what I find here from a distant and I'm speaking as a distinct amateur and all things Brexit is the idea that we're going to somehow amen or renegotiate or there I don't hear that from Brussels. Is there any wiggle room here from members of Parliament? Well, I think

you're certainly right. That's not the message we heard loud and clear from Brussels over the weekend, and I think that there is certainly in Parliament there is potential appetite for some. Of course, there are some people who want the fundamentals of the withdrawal agreement, which basically relates to the backstop relating to the border between Northern Ireland the

Republic of Ireland, to be renegotiated. I don't think that's up for negotiation renegotiation, but I do think the potential has Rupert has said some kind of further move towards an access to the E a greater access via after the so called Norway model UM and of course we have already agreed a UK wide customs arrangement for a period of time is a possibility. The EU at the moment of you're giving nothing away about whether they would

entertain that. But you know, I think Rupert when he was advising in the Treasury and I was EU Budget Minister, we all know that no EU negotiation has ever quite done until the eleventh Hower, and we don't reach that leventh Hower until the twenty ninth of March next year. Although I think we all hope for our sanity and for certainty for businesses and others, that we achieve a resolution to this a long time for fore March next year.

And nickum Oregon, if this tourism may deal fails in Parliament, for you back a second referendum, No, I'm not keen

on a second referend. I really feel very strongly about this that actually I think our first referendum, which you know I supported and I understood that it was something people wanted to have her say on, but I think references cut across our our representative democracy that we have with six fifty MPs elect sort this out, and actually, if we can't do that, then I think there is something much greater that is in trouble in our parliamentary

representative democracy. So for a number of practical reasons, but also a big constitutional reason, I think a second vote would be a very bad I do. Even if you could argue, then actually we're better off, you know, we were better off in the EU than with the current deal. Well, look I argue that case. Obviously we didn't know about this this deal on the table now, but I argued the case remaining EU very strongly, as did many many other people in six seventeen million people in this country

took a different view. I think there will be a crisis our democracy if we said sorry, you know no kind of the Treasury Select Committee, which I chair, is going to be looking at the government's analysis of the deal and the Bank of England's analysis this week and holding evidence sessions which I'm sure Bluebird viewers will find a great interest. No deal is ever going to be

as good as the one we've got. But people voted for change, and I think the deal the plan is put on the table respects that but also doesn't crash our economy. Well, I'm going to rip up the script, Nicky Moore, are going to mean people voted for change. What's the change right now other than the presumption that Parliament isn't going to go for this. Well, you're right.

I mean, the point is that we've had two years basically of sort of UK politics stalling whilst this Brexit deal has been negotiated, and we will carry on having two years more of stalling if we don't get this withdrawal agreement agreed and embark on the transition period. Now, not much is going to change in this transition period, but I think people will begin to see that their opposibility.

So obviously I do a lot of work and looking at financial services, and I think it'd be fair to say that in the City of London and elsewhere there's appetite for thinking about, well, you know, we've we've obviously stuck very close to being very influential in financial service regulations. If we're not going to be part of that, then what would we do differently? Where might we face, What

international standards would we look at following for example. It's going to take quite a long time for that to unfold. Is not going to happen anytime soon, but those are the kinds of discussions that I can see people beginning just to think about. In my discussions with financial institutions, you know, Nicki morg and I know you were transfixed by Chelsea and Saturday, but by Sunday you were begged of figuring out who's going to replace Prime Minister May?

Is there a discus, I mean, in this one week interregnum before we actually get to the parliament vote, is there a form blown discussion about who will replace the Prime Minister? Or am I being rude and asking their question? You're not really me asked the question because unfortunately a number of my colleagues put that question on the table earlier on this month when they said they were going to gather letters to unseat the Prime minister. As we know that attempt failed, I think it would be the

height of madness to change prime minister. Now, although I take group it's point obviously about if a prime minister loses a major vote, what do they do? And look, of course there is there is discussion, nothing formal, And the honest truth is there is no obvious replacement because who ever takes over the job inherits exactly the same parliamentary arithmetic. So actually they're not going to have any

better of a landscape in which to negotiate this. And so actually I think for all the reasons that we've heard, the Prime Minister has shown remarkable resilience and stoicism. I've had my run ins with her, but on this I have to say I think she absolutely is acting in the country's best interest and that's why she wants to go and talk to the country about the deal. Now, how should investors and markets actually look at this? So does it all play in pound and what exactly is

priced in right now? Is it no deal first time? But actually there's a second vote and it gets through. Yes. So there's been a lot of commentary around the idea that market reaction to a deal failing might change opinions. The problem is that's now I think pretty much priced in. I think most people in markets are expecting the deal. I've actually been sort of identified as the originating this top idea, but it was actually a prediction rather than

a recommendation. One of the key things about this is the more he gets talked about, the more it gets priced in advance. So I suspect that, particularly if the vote is quite cloaked, I don't think markets would respond very negatively to a vote failing at this point, and I think that a lot of that is because all of these plan B s are actually more market friendly than the vote, the vote passing, particularly the option, so you're going to end up with markets having a problem

of pricing. Still this I think personally very small tail risk of an actual disruptive no deal exit and the possibility of something that actually more market friendly along the e A lines. I think that the reason we haven't seen more volatility is becau as people are looking through the first vote to those other options already. Nicki Morrigan as head of the Treasure Select Committee sor of course a bomber reviewers know you because you interrogate some of

the movers and shakers. Are you confidence that they're prepared for it, for anything happening with Brexit? Well, that's some of the questions we've been asking. The honest truth is, I think if there were to be a no deal Brexit, preparations are not all in place. And we had the head of HMRC Revenue and Customs before us last week and we asked him about the systems that would be necessary in the event of a no deal or even if we were to allow on that the Northern Ireland backstop,

and the honest truth is those plans are. They can't put them in place because they don't yet know what the parameters are to design the necessary software and systems. And that's a major part. So what he was basic saying was they have to balance eventually in this scenario, raising money, security and obviously the sort of the border checks and everything else. And you know it's going to

be a question of nothing. It would be I think you described a suboptimal what would happen if we were to leave with no deal without the necessary systems in place? Missab can sub optimal brings up Heathrow. Let me cut to the chase. How are our customs going to change it? Heathrow? I mean you come in now and there's EU and they get through in two seconds, and everybody else like ugly Americans it takes three hours to get through customs and get that. But but how do you perceive Heathrow

will be after this agreement? Well, look, it's a really it's a really good question. I think there are plans being made in the Home Office too. And of course you're talking now about people and borders, um, and you know I was passing through the border just last week myself and looked up and thought, well, I wonder what the science are gonna look like from either March next

year or from one at the moment. Of course, if you are part of Switzerland or part of the e A, you still get to go through the quicker cute, shall we say? Now you know, is that something that can be negotiated and all those sorts of questions. And Heathrow is also a huge freight port, or we don't often think about it that way, but of course they bring

in freight from around the world. But one of the things that's going to have to change, I think, almost regardless of what happens eventually, is we've got a hundred and forty thousand small companies in this country who before now have only exported to the EU, so they're not filling informed and having to all the paperwork. If you you do, if you export the rest of the world, that's going to change and training and getting people used to those sorts of forms that all takes time. Of course,

it can be done, but it takes time. And while people are going to use the new system, what they won't be doing is they won't be exporting. And that's when you start seeing the damage unfoard into our economy. That's why no deal Brexit is so potentially damaging. Nicki Morrigan, We're in November twenty six. Where are the chances of the UK actually inadvertently or advertently leaving the EU, the

eun in a messy way crashing. I think that's that's quite high, actually, am I. It was an event on Friday, and I put it at fifty, you know, a no deal Brexit because actually, if this agreement doesn't get approved by Parliament and Parliament is able to come up with an alternative, and it is possible that the government's might say, okay, well that's it's you know, we are going to go for a no deal and we're just going to spend

the next three months frantically preparing for that. We find ourselves sliding out, and my worry is that my colleagues, who for very religious reasons are pushing a second boat or wanting something else to to happen, may find we run out of road on all those options and we

end up sliding out. All right. Thank you both, Nicki Morrigan, THEO the Chair of the Treasury Select Committee joining us today, and Rupert Harrison and Black Rocket What a week we've got coming up for you, speeches from FED Vice Chairman Clarinda on Tuesday, Chairman Pal on Wednesday, and a much anticipated G twenty meeting to round out the week. Once central question going into do we face a soft landing or are we well on the road to a recession

we slowed down? Joining me to answer that question, the man who posed their question, James Sweeney Credit Sweet, chief economist and head of Global fixed income at Economic Research, joins us. Now, good wanna, James, good morning. So walk me through this because I think this is a massive debate right now whether we're returning to trend growth in the United States and in Europe as well of that matter, or whether something more sinister is taking place in the

global economy. Yeah. The way I would define a soft landing, which often doesn't feel so soft from an equity market perspective, is when you see weak manufacturing growth, small falling p m s, stress and markets, but the labor market and inflation are basically fine and and on trend, and so in GDP terms, that might mean you're a little bit below you know, two for a while, um, but really it's a manufacturing story and that's really what we're expecting.

So we're expecting manufacturing weakness. I really don't see a very likely scenario where the US unemployment rate shoots up sharply, and that's what a recession is. At this line in your research just jumped down at me. Market perceptions of global growth have been heavily influenced by the performance of the automobile sector. What is happening in autos? That is temporary? Yeah, so, I mean, you know, market perceptions of growth are are really driven by p M I S p M EZ

or driven by manufacturing growth and industrial production. And in the last six or nine months, manufacturing growth has been driven pardon the pun, by the by the auto sector. In fact, we estimate that global industrial production x autos has actually been flat at trend like pretty good growth since since the beginning of the year. So what's happening in autos is You've had tax increases in China leading

to very slow auto sales. You've had storms and a typhoon in in Japan which led to a significant disruption um in in production and and exports um In the US, you haven't had such a disruption except that uh TESTLA sales Model three sales with the number one car recently,

which may be impacting uh some exports. And in Europe you've had this regulatory change where a Volkswagen apparently you know, missed a deadline to re retool some of their production for diesel and it caused production to to really plumme it for for a little while. Um and that was September October, and we think now it's coming back. And when you really look at all this in the soup, what does it mean for car sales? What does it

mean for industrial production of cars? Globally it's been a significant shock And when you do the numbers carefully worldwide again X autos, there has been no slowdown in manufacturing. So listening to what you're saying, James, essentially is that the slowdown worldwide is being technically driven. There are no

real fundamental underpinnings to this. And if we are transitioning back towards trend growth in between, imagine we're gonna have a lot of volatility in the market where prices you point out, really sets narrative, and the narrative at the moment is very, very worried about a real deceleration through underpinned by real slowdown in the United States and the federal Reserve that seemingly hasn't woken up to that yet. So walk me through how you think this is going

to play out. Yeah, So again I separate manufacturing from the broad economy and the labor market, and in manufacturing in the short run, the German factories are turning back on, so you're gonna have a rebound there in China. This is complicated, but you get farther away from when the taxes went up in January, but there's expectations of the taxes could go down again. Very strange for a company to be lowering and then raising or you know, reversing

taxes on one product within a year. But basically, we we think as as Japanese production comes back, German production comes back in the next three months or so, we're gonna see better auto production again. When we get through that. We're gonna have the impact of the trade war. We're gonna have the impact of tightening financial conditions. We're gonna have the impact of lower oil prices on mining and energy capex. All of those things together are likely to

put downward pressure on manufacturing growth next year. None of them are likely to be sufficient to drive the US unemployment rate up. That's a soft landing. That's what we're expecting for next year. So it is a rocky time. It's just not a disaster. Give us a statistic on your your two percent call on GDP two point one, two point four, two point four percent. How does Chairman Powell's tone change moving from make America great again to two point four percent? Well, two point four percent is

not bad. And I agree with a couple of hikes next year. And I think what you're seeing in initial claims and payrolls and wage growth and all those sorts of things, consumption and retail sales is consistent with the need to continue hiking. But the market, as always, is going to look at a p M I is going to look at a manufacturing companies, you know, earnings being

revised down. I mean, I mean, you and I are gonna be Economic Club of New York and Wednesday we're gonna be sitting there and moving the vegetables around the on the plate. Why didn't he just say, you know, we're looking at what's out there. We think we're gonna raise once or twice and then we're really going to study things come July or whatever that that date point is.

I think, why can't he say that. He is going to say that, maybe not as clear as you just did, but I think he's gonna he's gonna hint at that. I mean, the the the central of the central kind of estimate of that neutral rate that they talk about is around three percent, which basically is a hike in in December, and it's maybe two more next year. And

that's our forecast. And I think reassessing when you get there makes sense, but you know along the way it will likely slow manufacturing growth and continued to weigh in financial marks. I think what would really help them right now is if they did not have the summary of economic projections and we did not know what the median dot was, if we didn't know where the median dot was, Tom, I think we'd all conclude that that's essentially is where

they're going. We've heard that from Chairman Pal, We've heard that from Vice chair Clarada. Things are dark, you gotta walk a little bit more clerfully so you don't stop your toe. That's affectingly what they've told us. Yeah, that's right, and I think also in terms of markets. You know, we're getting right now the opposite of what we had in two thousand sixteen. We're getting a slowdown in global growth. It's modest, but we're getting a slowdown with tightening policy.

That's bad for everything. So stock spawns, financial assets are not giving good returns. In two thousand sixteen and seventeen, you had an acceleration in global growth, you had an easing of policy, which was an overreaction to the deflation fears we talked about many times, and that was good for all financial assets. So you know, we're struggling because returns are not great and because growth is incremental slowing. But again, watch the labor market. The unemployment rate is

going nowhere. The unemployment rate is going nowhere. It's an Eisenhower unemployment right right. Are we a fully employed America? We are? We are, And and you know, hopefully that's gonna shift wage growth around a little bit, you know, and we are seeing lately that wage growth at the bottom end of the distribution is actually a little bit higher than than the rest, which is a big change. So you know, we'd like to see that continue for

a long time. James Sweeney, thank you so much with Cardi Sweet Right now, Oliver chen to help us with Cyber Monday as well. Is Oliver over the last ninety days. My basic take is Tiffany's model is worked. Is it the new model for luxury retail? It is, Tom, I mean something blew, something new. What's happening here is innovation and product innovation and stores and as you know, the Blue Box cafe and reinventing retail being experiential, so they really need to get reasons for people to come in

the store. Um, and they also need to engage digitally. Uh. We've seen this at Tiffany and we're excited about what's happening there as they really work to improve stores, marketing product and really become irreverent and fun yet true to the heritage of the brand as well. It's a brand that's famous for gifting, it's a brand that's famous for bridal, and we like the innovation that we're seeing at Tiffany

and Company. I'll try not to allow my own experience to set a broad narrative for the whole of the country, but I will talk to you about my own experience. Over the weekend, Oliver, I went to a mall in Massachusetts in a Boston suburb. There was no one there name and Marcus was empty. Tiffany's was around the corner and there was no one there either. Where are these

stores that are doing well? Yeah? I mean for Black Friday, it's it's really a family event, and the broad line retailers such as Target and Walmart have the most traffic. We also like Coals and Altar, and then we liked um what we saw with traffic, although they're having some issues at Victorious, Secret and Pink. So as you think about Black Friday and the family tradition, it's it's a

teen sport, it's a family sport um. And then we'll see really this rush of men trying to get great gifts as it gets closer to it will be a stressful experience in terms of just you know, trying to get your job done with choosing a great gift. But the Tiffany Blue Box is just a invitation to a great gift um, as you know, in terms of that

brand equity. But I was at Native and I know that that bifurcation does happen, um, and there are not luxury shoppers at four am, you know, looking at I mean, I know vet Bill is not listening, but the dog bowl and bone China for a hundred and seventy's like, yeah, Tiffany Blue, of course lovely getting it done. But what you describe Oliver Cha And again one of the great research reports of the year from Cowen on experiential retail, like two pages or so almost Makinsie like Oliver to

say the least. What did you learn from that? And what do you observe in this holiday season about how basic retail, luxury retail and the great in between is doing. Yeah, what's happening is this transformation and revolution where we need instat grammable moments. When we think about Generation Z, it's

about culture, it's about curation, and it's about convenience. How do you really minimize the task of shopping and maximize the pleasure um and that has to do with really adding food and beverage, health and wellness unto the stores and rethinking the whole store experiences. That's four year olds, right or eighteen year olds John Farrell and I are

shopping that way. I need an Instagram. You want your your good ready to be picked up, you want to do the curbside pickup and you don't want to wait in line and you want um to you'll search online and on your mobile phone and you'll choose some neck us as are the dog bowl or the leash or you know, I like the Tiffany coffee cups and then do you want it ready to go? Um, it's it's a great pleasure just to look at that blue in the morning. And life is about, you know, innovation and

you know what to have someone over. I want the ease of returns. Who is doing this well? Some companies make it really difficult for me to return an item and do you know what I do next time around? I want to buy something, I don't shop there. Who's doing this right? Yeah? I mean the reality of what you're bringing up is very very important. And Amazon has really reset expectations around ease of returns and they're doing a partnership with Coals where you can bring package less

returns just the item. But as we look across the sector, we've seen a much better execution with wood free shipping, free returns, and this is an important factor for you to con um for for retailers to have done really well. UM and I UM, I use returns a lot as well in terms of thinking about fashion products over over those three years or four years in this huge revolution and the growth numbers folks are stunning, whether you see him from Cowen or from his good competitors. But Oliver Chen,

are we learning better to diminish returns? Are like returns less? To excuse me to internet our returns less? Now we've seen stable rates of return So fashion and apparel retail um has fairly high levels of returns, like thirty to fifty. But what happens is these business models you know, really incorporate returns into their algorithms. So it's been predictable um and predictable and a lot of the return rates are

similar on a year over year basis. The future of retail is using augmented reality and other fit techniques and understanding your wardrobe to minimize returns. So to minimize returns I understanding the wardrobe. It was a square footage of the closet filled. Do you know who's got this now? Though? Oliver Mr Porter in New York City you can get it within a couple of hours and if you don't like it, they'll pick it up for you. You never have to go out. Yeah, I mean I think that

happens and then bricks and clicks. You know, tom As you know, I'm a big fan of stores and people and labor and people talk about to you. But to Mr Pharaoh's comment, do people still want to go out? They do, but it needs to be better. It needs to be fun, It needs to be exciting, need to see interesting people and also labor and talent um that can be immersive. So if you rethink Gucci and Gucci vacation of of retail, um, it's really like a theater.

It's on the experience. The Gucci vacation of Recha. He was early early, It's like an early adopter before we lose you just quickly. Thanksgiving came really early this year. What is the extra we give to retail that much? Yeah, we we do have an extra week. We also have an extra day of shopping, so retail will be spread out. But I estimate a low single digit boost in terms of the week. It's it's um somewhat in the numbers and expectations. Retails had a tougher time. Stocks could be

range bound until January. But we love Walmart, we love coals, we like those value plays at the high end, we like tiffany Um and other and can you buy the European conglomerates. I'm looking at Gucci here earnings with shell pendance. It looks like something off a Kiosk in Provincetown eight underd ninety dollars earnings with shell pendance at Gucci. And how about come on, Oliver the flash Trek sneaker with removable crystals. This screams one thousand five hull customizable and

do it yourself, especially with jewels that fits well. And again I think they would complement your brow tie and your intellectual because they're okay. Can you buy the foreign glimbers, you know the ones I just want to see. I just want to see some guccy sneakers to compliment you about time. I need to see that. We can we can We crowd fund this on Bloomberg Radio and crusted and I'll take something simply and elegant, the first Life

Oliver Chen. Thank god you're going up once a year ago away with Cowen and Company, Oliver Chen, and for certain and folks, it is hugely entertaining and money making research how not to get your shirt taken and treaty brilliant research the last five minutes. But yeah, it's treuty impressive. Reset. I read it skinned that I should say, to be honest, two pages and I walked in Tiffany's and it was like Oliver Chen one on one. Yeah, I mean it's

hilarious how the company has changed. Our next guest, John Farrow, is exceptionally qualified in the dynamics of a tangible asset and that would be oil. We for yeah, we quote West Texas, we quote brand, the financial financial, financial, financial. There's also the chemistry of it as well, with a doctor from Cambridge in chemical. If I could use a technical word, ugly. It has been ugly over the last couple of months for the oil bills. Are there any

left out there? Abisheck disbanded, joining us now a head of JP Morgan's global all market research and strategy team. Just go through the technical backdrop where we are at the moment, Abishek, How long shore is this market right now?

So if you look at the markets from the net length perspective, we have definitely seen a significant reduction of the total net length from earlier April long by almost seven dred thousand contracts when we had some of the recent highs of the year for both Brent and t I combined, and in just the second half we've seen over five and fifty thousand battles of fifty contracts being

being reduced. So we had a net long short range of almost closed to seventeen uh do in its recent highest literally earlier in the second half of the year, and now be a down closer to just three and and closer to basically realizing that the lengths in the market are being removed as investors are turning out to be less confident on remaining supportive or prices going forward, and at the same time are also increasing their short positions.

And it really fits the narrative. We've gone from a market word about a supply shortage to a market word about a supply cloud. I look at the record output coming from Saudi Arabia at the moment, I just wonder how difficult it will be to pull it back in, to introduce price cuts, to introduce output cuts rather, when the President of the United States is putting so much

pressure on the Mabishek. Absolutely, I think it's kind of a daja who two thousand fourteen and two thousands sixteen same same time around at that time as well, just in the run up to the OPEQUE meeting. Part of this issue, to be very frank is a self created policy lead, I agree, and policy lead this time by United States actually uh in terms of US policies bearing

heavy on opaquelet policies going forward. But at the end of the day, the surplus or rather the supply or taking demand in the third quarter was pretty much strongly driven by the OPEC countries, namely Southirabia. Even Libya is less reduced with the destructions helped, and on top of that, the other open plus countries, which is Russia, added to the AUDI the market. If you take your very careful analysis at JP Morgan and then bring it over to what to do with equity investment or what not to

do with equity investment in oil? What is it right now? Do I want to buy shares and where or do I want to run? So so I'm not an equity analyst,

I know. Yeah, but if you were to look at oil per se, I guess for the time being, from the price perspective, we remain supportive because we believe that OPEG in two thousands sixteen took a decision that it is in their responsibility to help balance the market because there was very difficult for them to basically UH compete with the US low supply as low cost supply, and I believe something similar is what there is likely to

look into. So the current falling prices is very much as a set OPEC let and OPEC need to intervene at this point. However, given the fact that we are seeing a lot of interference or or or or navigating these all markets and current political scenario has become much more difficult because of US policies, UH, there is a good chance if OPEC does nothing, we will go towards our own GP morven lower price scenario, gravitate towards that as as Oil will have limited reason to remain supportive

if OPEC does nothing. I Diden's Global or Market Research and Strategy Tank. Thanks for listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast. Subscribe and listen to interviews on Apple Podcasts, SoundCloud, or whichever podcast platform you prefer. I'm on Twitter at Tom Keene Before the podcast, you can always catch us worldwide. I'm Bloomberg Radio