Surveillance: Trump Virus Woes With Kudlow

from the White House. Hello, Chi, Larry, Hi Jacks, and thank you. Thank you for being with us first and foremost our thoughts with the President and the first lady. If we can start there, and if you can update us on the health of the President when you last spoke to him, What he sounded like, what you're hearing now. I spoke to him last evening. Um sounded fine. Um. I didn't get to see him, but I did speak to him. I have not spoken to him this morning. Uh.

Chief Meadows has spoken to him several times. We're all getting our assignments. Apparently it's a light version of the virus. Let us pray that that is the case. Pray for both President and the first lady Uh and my Paloe Picks and Ron and McDaniel for that matter. So we're okay. I was tested this morning. Thankfully it was another negative test. I've think I'm an eighty six or eighty seven straight

days something like that. And the business is functioning here in the government, and we hope President gets well very soon. We share those hopes. Larry, if you can just describe for us the symptoms with a little bit of details so we can get a little bit more clarity. You called it a light version of the virus. We've heard it described as mild symptoms. What are the symptoms, Larry,

I'm just not in a position to tell you. John, And as I said, I have not seen him, I've not talked to Dr Connolly, so I'm not the guy on on on that particular beat. I understand that. I think somewhere you can help us though. It's the process. What we're experiencing right now in the last twenty four hours is probably the most high profile track and trace

process that's played out since the coronavirus started. When were you contacted, Larry contacted about the President contacted about Hope Hicks testing positive and that you would have to go and get a test yourself. Well, I get one every day as a matter of course. People that come in and out of the Oval and are with the President. There's a bunch of us that get tested every day. Um. I heard about Hope last evening, and I heard about the President well as soon as I woke up this morning.

What we've learned from the White House Chief of Staff Mark Meadows is that the White House knew that Hope Hicks had tested positive ahead of leaving for the New Jersey fundraiser. And Larry, I think a lot of people are asking questions as to why the presidents still went to Bedminster, New Jersey when the White House was aware that Hope Hicks had tested positive. Can you give us any any clarity on that? Shine a lot? And why? Larry, I'm not sure, John than I can. I mean, I

wasn't on Marine one. I didn't go on that particular trip. Um. I think as soon as they realize what happened, Uh, they took um certainly distancing measures. But look, I wasn't there. I'm not the doctor. Uh, I'm here to talk about the better than expected jobs report and what the economy is doing well. I I can't help you on the medical stuff. If I could, I would, but I just

I wasn't a participant to understand, wasn't there, Larry. I don't expect you to talk about the medical stuff with us today, but you have in the past voluntarily suggested to Americans how they should act and engage with each other. And I just wonder for everyday Americans right now, what kind of message this sends. And you are representing the administration at the moment, Larry, what do you think this sends.

It's a message to the public in America right now. Look, we we continue to UM emphasize the protocols, that is to say, masking and distancing and testing we're applicable, and good daily hygiene, washing your hands in your face, and so forth. We have said this throughout the pandemic, and we will say it again, um And I think we all are observing the protocols as best we can, especially the distancing. But also look, when I go out of

the complex, I'm wearing a mask. I couldn't get into a store if I didn't have a mask on, and we're all very conscious of this. This is big. Listen, this is terribly important stuff. I understand that, and lives are at stake and it's difficult. But again, our protocols have not changed. Masking, distancing, testing and and good hygiene. That's the best you can do. We haven't proved on the therapies. The doctors know a lot more than they did. Uh.

Dr Sean Connolly is the best of the business. The White House Medical Unit is the best in the business. The President is going to get absolutely first rate plus treatment and as I said, we all pray for him and the first lady. Why wasn't this protocols followed yesterday? I don't know that they weren't. Well, it's quite clear from the timeline that we've already discussed in the White House Chief of Staff Marth Meadows basically confirmed they were.

If you'd learned before the trip that an aid to the President, Hope Picks, had tested positive before leaving, and you still left and then went to a fundraiser, they're the protocols. They haven't been followed. Larry Jonathan, I just can't speak to it. As I said, it wasn't there. I have spoken to the Chief this morning answer some other matters. We didn't go through that timeline. I'm sorry,

I just I just can't speak to it. I understand it puts you in an awkward situation, but I think at the moment, for the American people, they've had to follow the guidelines, and it's pretty clear in the last twenty four hours from what we've heard Larry, that it

doesn't sound like the President did so. For Americans at work today, engaging with the workforce that may have been exposed to coronavirus and might have to return work without from work without pay and go and south isolate, how do you convince them that that's the right thing they should do? And that's any can only question, Yes it is now. Look again, we continue to emphasize the protocols.

As you and I have talked about this, UM. You know, you see virus hotspots, for example, and we have mitigation UH to control it. Fortunately, the trends look pretty good right now. Hospitalization fatalities way down. Cases UH popped up a little bit earlier in September. UM they're coming back down. But all through this, to the best of my ability and the best of everybody's ability, we have emphasized these protocols. We must do this now. It can be done. It

does seem to work. Um, and we're open business. I guess we've got about eight percent of our business open. And you know we are assisting medically and financially to help people deal with COVID issues, you know, renovations if necessary. We're testing. I think we're at a million tests per day now, with a capacity to do even better. But again, proper masking, proper distancing, proper testing, and proper hygiene. That has been a staple of our response from day one.

But Larry, I'll ask the question again if you don't mind, if the President hasn't followed your advice, why should an American who doesn't get paid to go home go home and south isolate if they've been exposed to coronavirus? Why should they do that? If the President didn't. My impression here is that when the President tested positively, that's exactly what he did. He went home. He's in effect quarantine quarantine himself. We're working with the doctors. That's what he did.

I wasn't there at the events yet, understand that I can't speak to my president. He's following these guidelines. He's following the guidelines. The President has been talking about them. I'm distancing different economic perspective. If we can Larry, I'm at work. I know that if I've been in contact with someone who's tested positive for COVID nineteen, I should go home, immediately, get tested, wait fourteen days. I'm trying

to understand why the President didn't do those things. If they are a minimum requirements in the workforce in America right now, why wouldn't the President of the United States, holding the highest office in America follow the same guidelines, Jonathan. Best I can do is to say that as soon as you know, he was tested as a precautionary measure when the news came out about Miss Hicks, and he did test positive, and he immediately did and followed the

very protocols that you are describing. He did it. That's the best I can tell you. We can go through this a few more times, but that is my view. That is the information I have. He is following the protocols, and he acted very quickly. He's in the residence as he must be. We will see how long it's necessary for him uh to quarantine. That's up to the doctors and the President and the First Lady and so forth. I can't get involved in that. And again, I wasn't

on a helicopter, wasn't on a trip yesterday. But as soon as he found out he was tested, and as soon as he tested positive, he went in quarantine. Larry, I'll only ask one more time, and I know it's unfortunate, and I'm sorry to keep doing this. I really am. We've built up a relationship over the years, so I'm sorry to make this awkward. But that's not what happened.

According to the timeline, and according to White House Chief of Staff Mark Meadows, you learn about the positive fo pix still went on the trip, and then when you returned, the President was tested and tested positive. And only then did he announced that he would be quarantining. And also, it wasn't disclosed to the general public that hoe Pix had tested positive until we broke the story here at Bloomberg and the President went on the television show with

Sean Hannity on Fox News. That's the time line, And Larry, I know it's sensitive, and I know it's puts you in a really tough position. But for all of us, for everyone operating in this economy right now, for people trying to work and trying to get paid. If they're exposed to coronavirus, they have to go home. They don't wait around and carry on with their normal life for several hours time and then go and do a fundraiser and then get a test and Larry, that's the distinction here,

that's the difference. And I think it is an economic question, it's not just the political one, which is why I need you to help me answer it. For everyday Americans who can't afford to go home after being exposed to the virus, what kind of a message does this center them? Look? So we all stay safe as best we can, I will repeat, we must follow the key protocols, asking and

distancing and testing and good hygiene. I can't give you the chronology because it wasn't there, and I will leave that to chiefs Staff Mark Meadows, who is an exceedingly capable man, and he has a lot more information about it, uh in real time than I do. I'm not the guy, but I say, as we always that all all all folks who might be listening to this or paying attention to it, we want everybody to be well. We want

everyone to protect themselves. We want everyone to follow the guidelines because these protocols have been proven to work, all right, and that's a good thing. And right now our businesses are getting back to reopening, so it does help the economy. And right now we are uh strongly recommending, with many many experts in health scientists that the schools should reopen. Um the odds suggest that those kids are the least

are the least vulnerable. Now again, I'm not the scientist, but I think schools reopening as a parental question, it's a child edge cation in psychology question. It is an economic question. I agree with you to help the parents, let's do it. Regarding the reopening of business, we have found ways and means to reopen businesses and even restaurants on a safe basis. And I would also say, um, the economy is reflecting that improvement. So I would I still feel that we're in a recovery period. It's a

v shape recovery. Today's numbers, when they're properly adjusted, we're in line with consensus, and the unemployment rate has fallen to seven point nine percent. We have blowout car sales numbers last night or this morning that folks aren't talking about. Another words, John Than I'm saying, we are moving in the right direction, and we are succeeding in dealing with the pandemic and with the economy, with the economy's recovery,

and that's an awfully good thing. And the President, when he gets back on his feet, which I hope and pray will be very soon, will continue to make his case that lower tax and lower regulations and better trade deals and energy independent will get us back to the kind of prosperity where family incomes and real wages have gone up for the first time in twenty years. It worked, and so this pandemic protocols is part of our message.

I need just a little bit of a tangent there, Larry, but I'll forgive you for it, and I share those hopes and prayers, and I hope the President the first lady get better. You mentioned the vulnerable. I've been talking about the vulnerable, the people that can't afford to go home in Southeast today. Let's talk about them and how

the administration is trying to offer them. In the last week or so, there has been some negotiations between Republicans and Democrats, and on Wall Street has been difficult to understand whether it's happy talk posturing le real negotiations. Do you think they are real negotiations? Do you think we can actually strike a deal in the coming week. Well, I can't forecast that, Jovin'. That's a tough question. It's

the right question, but I can't forecast it. I can tell you, as I said earlier, business is going on in the White House. Secretary Manution is expecting to have discussions with Speaker Pelosi today. I spoke to Stephen very earlier this morning about a number of matters. Um, we're still apart on our asks. Uh. There in our judgment asking for a lot of extraneous things that have nothing to do with COVID and the economy. Uh. The split has narrowed somewhat, but it's still wide enough. And I

would just make this point there. As I've said before, I don't believe our recovery is dependent on assistance package, but but there are certain areas which would be enormously helpful to it. The airlines need legislation for additional assistance. They're in big trouble, and they're on the verge of major layoffs, and we would like to prevent that all right, to help the workforce. Secondly, we should be extending the payroll Protection Plan for small businesses. Uh, there's actually a

hundred thirty semi billion of money that was unused. We need legislation to put that back to work. I get a million calls on this from CEOs of large and small companies. We should help the schools. We've always had a hundred billion, hundred five billion dollar asked to help the schools reopen with respect to whatever, you know, renovations and refurnishings and testing and equipment to do. We should have a backup plan on legislation for unemployment assistance. All right,

we've gone into our executive order. We've put out the extra three hundred dollars. That's not gonna last forever. I don't understand why our trends on the other side of the aisle cannot agree to these five or six basic issues that virtually everybody agrees with. Why you know we're zero is not going to help? All right, A trillion or a trillion five would be very helpful, and if we need more later, we can come back later. But you've got to have some sense of compromise here to

help Americans who genuinely need help. This is not extraneous spending. This is emergency relief spending. We have been pushing this from day one, and these recent talks. Let's just get it done. And other stuff that's out there more political or ideological, fine, I respect that, but let's deal with that in separate pieces of legislation at a different time.

Larry went on the next talks. As I said, Treasury Secretary Manution told me earlier this morning he expects to have significant conversations today today and the distance between the two sides. You talked a lot about substance. Can we just put numbers on that, just briefly if we can. The House Democrats passed the bill two point two truly, and you threw some numbers out there. I'm just wondering what you've come up to. Second minute and said you've

come up what have you come up to? Now? Just understand the distance between the two sides of the moment, Larry right, fair enough. Secretary told this morning, um, and I'll try to owed him his position. His that is, the presidents in our administration's position is in the neighborhood of one point five trillion dollars. I cannot speak for Senator McConnell, the House Leader. They may have a different

point of view, but I will quote Secretary Manution. He has said this publicly in the neighborhood of one and a half trillion. So the spread the bid in the offer has narrowed, but it's still pretty far apart. And again, I just come back to this simple formula. I'm not interested in so much in the aggregates. I'm interested in specific targeted programs that could help kids in school, help

small businesses, help the airlines, and help the unemployed. We had a nice drop in unemployment in the data coming out this morning, but there's still too many people out there, way too much hardship, and we want to help them as they transition. So why not just pass these few targeted essentials to keep America are going and get through this difficult pandemic period. Why not? Larry, do you have a deadline for these negotiations in mind? Is to a cut off period for you ahead of the election or

can this just keep on going? No, I don't have a deadline in mind. Again, I'm not speaking for the Senate Republican Conference, but I don't think Mr Manutian, I don't think Mr Meadows, and I don't think President Trump has a deadline in mind. Look, President Trump himself has said numerous times that he is willing to go further then some people are in the Senate, So I think

that's always been a slightly encouraging position. I mean, we're willing to do business here, we are willing to do business. Larry can I say thank you, and I apologize for my persistence, but I think there's a really important issues, the timeline problem devate itself with a little bit more class in the counting days. As a former broadcast anchor,

I understand the business and professional to professional. I salute you, Larry Cablow, thank you very much, Send out best to the White House, win you to the President and the first Lady. We all hope they have a speedy recovery. It would be good, John now to fold in somebody prodigious in the mathematics and dynamics of this odd bond market, with the American economy and with the sharks in Washington. We can bring in Jeff Roisenberg, black Rock portfolio manager

of the Systematic Multi Strategy Fund. Jeff, great to have you with us. Your response on the jobs market but more importantly, perhaps a conversation that I know is dominating things over a black rock at the moment. And the fixed income team, what traceries aren't doing. They're not doing a lot, Jeff. Why yeah, you know they're not doing a lot on this morning. On on payrolls, you know, just a comment on the payrolls. You know, the headline is a little bit below forecast, but it's a very

different labor market payroll report. You know, the span of uncertainty here is about two million jobs. Government was a little bit weaker if you look at private payrolls. That

was pretty much on the screws. But to your second question, John, which is really the much more kind of salient conversation, is that you know, the rate market volatility is just incredibly dampened, and and for good reason, and that is, you know, the FED has ushered in a tremendous amount of firepower to to basically support financial market stability in the aftermath of the coronavirus shock in March and April, and now pivoting to a very clear message of a

long run right all the way out through the forecast period of zero interest rates and moving Quewie into the accommodation mode. So you're seeing very very small moves now in the in the rate market, the very interesting futures at negative fifty. What is really good is to let Michael McKee have twelve seconds to actually read the pages of documents. This is a more informed Michael McKee. Well, I just want to pick up on something that Jeff

Jesse said about government losses. The total government job losses two D sixteen thousand, and if you look at the underlying numbers, local government education down by two hundred and thirty one thousand. This was expected by a lot of analysts, and this is what's really depressed the numbers, and it's

probably related to seasonal factors. In September, teachers and all the workers at the schools, the custodians, the cooks, the bus drivers all go back to work, but this time, because of virtual school, many of them did not the seasonal factors expected a bump, didn't get it, and so push the number down below where it otherwise would be. So the number is the total number of job six hundred sixty one thousand lower than anticipated, but it may

not be real. As Jeff Rosenberg was just saying, messy report might always great to get the reality checks that you bring for us. Jeff Rosenberg, this is the last employment report until the November three election. What is the narrative as you see it coming from this, Well, you know there's another thing just to folks for a second. On the on the payroll report, you know, leisure and hospitality is up again quite significant and and it is

a reminder. You know, Mike just talked about the schools and the teachers, and that's a that's a that's a negative dragon the report. The positive part is you are seeing the effects of reopening in this in this report. So you're seeing strong figures there. You know, that's that's some good news. And it's a reminder that you know, we are moving through. There is a reopening. It's it fits and starts and and now I think when you when you consider today's headlines, it's really about a reminder.

And we're seeing these reminders in many areas aspects right so here in New York City, schools are reopening, some schools that reopened earlier I've already had to close down. And that we are dealing with the uncertainties of what you know, the potential of a second rave might look like. And I think that's really the kind of big picture story around you know, today's headlines, And it's really gonna be how aggressive and necessary will any policy response in

terms of shutdowns and constraints on the economy. B And that's really weighing on here your financial markets. It's pushing up expectations for perhaps uh fiscal policy response that we know is is kind of stuck in Congress. Perhaps that

increases in its likelihood. And these are really going to be the themes that dominate the economic outlook and therefore also the market out all Right, So you were talking, Jeff about the policy response potential shutdowns, but as we've seen, it's not necessarily an official shutdown that causes the economic ramifications. It's people being nervous that they're going to get the virus, right,

It's human behavior. It's the psychology of it. And I gotta say this morning, coming in seeing the headlines, seeing the most high profile track and trace you've ever seen going on in the White House and throughout Washington, d C. You have to wonder what that does to psychology, how much that puts a dampener on the US economic recovery. Do you expect, given the diminished expectations for a fiscal response, do you expect the U S economy to continue to

at least grow given all the headwinds that we currently see. Well, I I do. It's about the second derivative of that growth in terms of how much negative impact and drag do you get. And you raise a really good point that you don't have to have, you know, government mandate and shutdowns to see the effect. Now, what's important about that effect is that it hurts very specific segments of

the economy. Right, So if it's people reacting to the fear, that hurts restaurants, it hurts retail, it hurts leisure and hospitality, you know the things I just mentioned that in September we're seeing some recovery. But if you don't have the full born shutdown, you don't necessarily see that spill over into manufacturing and into other parts of the economy that, if allowed to can continue to practice as they implemented safer measures social distancing that allowed manufacturing and an Arab

pandemic to continue. Jeff Rozenberg with a FRO. As we consider this Job's report, the Revisions future is really pretty much unchanged off the shock in Washington. Are Michael McKee with further insight. Michael, for the numbers here that Lisa was talking about earlier, and what you see is an interesting number for construction workers only twenty six thousand. And we've seen such gains in housing, particularly in new home construction, and it may be that we're finding a problem in

finding workers to do the jobs. Manufacturing jobs up sixty six thousand. And you look at retail trade, interesting a hundred two thousand jobs. That's significantly lower than the two hundred and sixty one thousand last month, but it is a lot of jobs. When people talk about the idea of of maybe, um that we've we've lost a lot of stores, Uh, you gotta wonder if if they maybe

you're still trying. Michael McKey, thank you so much. Jeff Rozenberg, one more insight here before we get to this lead story across this nation, and that is, can you explain to me how banks may money in the Rosenberg nominal yield space. I really haven't understand how they're going to jump through that hoop. How are they gonna do it? Well, you know, it's it's still all about credit transformation. Right, so borrowing at lower rates than they're earning on their loans.

And and despite the yield curve being exceptionally flat, banks financing costs are still very very low UH supported by government policy. And when you consider the charges in terms of credit and credit spread, that's that's really how banks are are finding UH net income margin and so they can find profitability there. This has been wonderful, Jeff Rosenberg, what an odd jobs day. Thank you so much for helping us UH try to make some semblance of normality.

And always thank you to her. Michael McKee as well. For someone who has practiced at humility in economics and taking those skills to the World Bank is David Malpass. And we're thrilled at the World Bank President joins us this morning. There is an annual meeting, and yes it will be affected by the President's illness. David melt Pass of course working for President Trump before his president duties.

David Malpass, COVID is front and center for your World Bank, different than the I m F, different than the World Health Organization. I want to know what you've learned on the efficacy of masks. Hi, Hi Tom, good morning. Well, I think the masks are helping where in lots of parts of the world. One thing we we did starting in April was to create programs where countries could choose the different protective equipment that they wanted to buy with

financing that we could provide. And so that's been a very successful program because it gives the choice to the countries. UH. And there's there's a variety of activities going on in order to counter the response and what we've done, what I did this week was announced the expansion of that program. My board is looking at it now to cover vaccines. So a critical thing for countries is that they begin to to UH respond fully to the crisis and get

people back into their livelihoods. That's that's critical because the poverty rates are going up so fast, David. You know across this nation there's cultural differences in the wearing of masks. I know, David, at Colorado College, there's usage of masks at all time. John Faroe mentions the variability of mass usage in the United Kingdom. Right now, India is front and center. What does the World Bank learned about India's protective abilities? Well, the COVID is a giant catastrophe, especially

for the poorest people. As as the the economy shut down, people that were in the informal economy didn't really have the ability to buy uh protective equipment masks uh and they didn't they didn't have an ability to have social distancing or space. So India's hit particularly hard. Uh and. But but we what I observe is waves of waves of infection in the developing world. So it's a very challenging, very challenging environment. One of the problems is children are

out of school uh and. We think there are a billion one billion children out of school, which and and they they they have the problem that they move backward and learning when they aren't going forward when they're not in school. So we have sizeable programs to try to help make school safe uh and and begin allowing people back to school when the when when it's safe and

when they're ready wearing masks. David, you raised an incredible point this idea of the the toll that this has taken on the least advantage to both in the United States, but frankly around the world. We've had Ken Rogoff, We've had Muhammadalarian come out and talk about how they are this emerging world is facing a debt crisis, a social crisis.

How much oxygen is the drama in the developed world with the US election, with the virus getting worse than certain locations, take out of the room from getting aid from some of these wealthier nations and getting it to those that need it. You know that, I would say the wealthier nations have been generous, and one of the challenges is using the aid that is available most as productively as possible. Countries need efficient systems to do to

do the distribution of the equipment. And also if vaccines become available, that's actually a complicated process to actually vaccinate a lot of people. So we're beginning that preparation uh phase, or working with countries so that they will be ready if there's a vaccine. But you're exactly right the inequality of this extent, there's many aspects. One is a lot of developing countries relied heavily on remittances from workers that worked across the border somewhere else, and that flow has

slowed down. The biggest problem is their markets have have severely declined. So for Africa, they were used to shipping products to Europe. There's just not as much demand. The good news I would say is uh is that economies in the advanced countries are are are showing recovery if you look at the quarter over quarter kind of data. Uh. And so that's a start and that will help the developing countries a lot. I would say, there's generosity in

the world. The complication is COVID is a really bad uh, really bad virus, and so that's just hammering poor people. David, how on board has China been with extending age the developing world given that they've emerged as one of the largest lenders to the e M complex. Several aspects of that right at the putting aside where the source origin of the virus uh in in April and May. They extended the helping hands somewhat to the developing world, so

that's important. They had a manufacturing equipment for some of the aid, so that's good. The US did that, Europe did that, and so I welcome that. Um. You're right that China is has been one of the biggest lenders to the developing world over the last maybe five years or ten years. Uh, and so that's a real challenge because some of their it comes from a variety of Chinese UH policy banks and commercial banks and government agencies.

Some of them are still taking payments from the poorest countries. I in March UH suggested a moratorium for bilateral official creditors so that they would would stop taking payments. Crystallina Geogeva, the head of the I m F and i UH pushed that in the g twe he endorsed it, and many of the creditors have stopped taking payments from the poorest countries. But unfortunately, UH commercial creditors are still taking

those payments. That means banks, hedge funds, asset managers, and some of the Chinese a few of the Chinese agencies are not fully participating, and they're some of the largest creditors. We're talking giant billions and billions in flows that are still coming out of the poorest countries. David, We've got to leave it there. We appreciate time this morning, so come back soon. David Malpass there. The World Bank President.

Peter Hotest joins us from Baylor his work at Yale University in particularly biochemistry at the Rockefeller University in New York years ago. Peter Hotez, your thoughts on the first week of when anyone gets this terrible virus. Yeah, thanks Tom. You know, I do worry about the President and his family. Uh. He does have a lot of risk factors that we know about, both his age that everyone has mentioned, and of course some of his underlying what we call comorbidity ease.

I don't think we know anything about hypertension or diabetes, but his his weight is potentially a factor. We don't really know why. There's one theory out there that there's a lot of virus receptors in adipose tissue, and that would be an interesting possibility. So he is at high risk. And uh, and I'm extremely worried about how he'll do with this virus. And he's just somebody that he's going to have to be monitored very closely. And I would have a pretty low threshold of bring him to Walter

Read if he starts heaving any decompensation. Well, you knew, Peter, that's right where I wanted to go. And I go back, Peter to a wonderful conversation, actually a very sad conversation with Adam Bernheim of Mount Sinai, one of their acclaimed radiologists. And I'm going to say early March, which, as you say, it is a tissue that becomes so damaging in this virus. The President obviously having some of those symptoms. I should point out some people have said I'm in that class.

Is well, what is the path to get to a hospital? What was Dr Conry looked for at the White House before he makes a decision to hospitalize any patient. Well, there's a There's a couple of things. One monitoring is oxygen, because we learned from that horrible epidemic in New York in March and April that sometimes you can have pretty low oxygen levels in your blood even without a lot

of respiratory distress. And this is very interesting. So one of the reasons why you have respiratory distress with typical pneumonias is because you're retaining carbon dioxide, not because your oxygen is low. But this virus sometimes you can not retain carbon dioxide, but you still have low oxygen. So you can have stunningly low oxygen levels even without having respiratory distress, and that may account for some of the sudden deaths we're seeing. So that's one thing to look for.

Another is, remember, this virus is not just a pulmonary virus, like we initially thought when it came out of Wuhan that it text attacks the vasculatures. So you're getting blood clots. For me, that meets pulmonary emboli strokes. Uh, it means heart attacks. And and this is why someone like the President would really somebody really want to monitor very closely.

Is neurologic status. Uh So, as I say, you know, I think someone like this should probably have a low threshold for for monitoring him in the hospital where you've got all the bills and whistles and you can really follow him a little bit closer with Monico. And I'm sure his doctors will be doing a very good and judicious job of that. I will say, bring you this headline from the New York Times saying that President Trump's virus case so far is mild, simply cold like symptoms.

I know, however, doctor Hotez, that people will be watching him very closely. In the meantime, the track and trace game uh taking hold in Washington, d C. Fear pervading everyone who has been in contact with President Trump, which raises a question about contagiousness. When people are most contagious and the path of transmission. Can you give us any

insight of the latest knowledge there? Yeah, I mean, this has been one of the real problems right for this virus is that it replicates in large amounts in the upper airway, the mouth and nose, uh, and even in people without symptoms. So there's some modeling studies coming out of Yale, out of Alice and Galvani's group showing that up to fift of transmission is occurring among asymptomatic individuals.

And now there was a huge paper that just came out yesterday in Science magazine from the group in India Robin and Laxman Ryan showing that forty year olds are contributing a huge amount of virus in part because they are without symptoms. So that kind of fits in with the Hope Hicks narrative a little bit. So this is

something that this is why it's been so problematic. It's really a nightmare virus in the sense that you've got two groups of people, those falling very ill and going into h c u s and having long haul injury, and those who are walking around the virus shedding a lot of virus with no symptoms. And this is why it's been so vexing, uh and why we were in

the middle of this awful, awful pandemic. Indeed, it is awful, and we are getting a very fast moving swath of headlines this morning, president of a former Vice President Biden coming out saying that he sends his thoughts to President Trump as well as the first lady to recover and step Minution also saying that he is an doesn't have

to quarantine himself. There is a question as we move forward also about the death rate, as we understand more about the virus, as we understand more about how much the population may be infected, do we have a revised mortality rate. It's it's still looking pretty high giving the president, given the President's condition and underlying comorbidities and age, But you know, it's we are a little further along in this epidemic and then we were back in April and March,

and then has some vantages as well. We do have a couple of new model clonal antibody therapies that are still in the early stages, but now they've gone through some early clinical testing for safety, and that's a possibility to consider the regenera on monoclonal antibodies or the apseller antibody these and then we you know, we have we have more eras in our quiver than we've had before, of course with dexamethason and antiquagulant therapy, so there's there's

a lot we can do proactively. We're concerned about the health of the president. Peter Hotel is one of the great conundrums here as we look at this news and I know you'll have a busy day in searching for

that ye space vaccine we talked about last time. Is the great leap of the young people getting the virus and they're okay, and you know, with great respect from miss Hicks or for any of the other people younger and then somebody old for an example, me, someone not you, Peter, someone old like me, someone would like the president, someone would like the president gets it. And it's really serious. Address us and speak now worldwide to younger people who

think they're immune to this virus. Yeah, this is a really important point, Tom. And remember even though most younger people do well, we're still seeing lots of long haul injuries and even deaths among young people, especially with certain groups. So for instance, the CDC came out with an important

document the summer. I testified at the Congressional Hispanic Caucus this week because thirty five of the deaths among Hispanic populations in the US occur under the age of sixty five, for forty year olds, fifty year olds, sixty year old. So this virus is robbing us of a lot of mothers and fathers and brothers and sisters. So uh, that's and that narrative has not really been will explain to people.

So that's another real important pater one final question, And I want to go back to David Baltimore and your

storied academics at Yale and at Rockefeller as well. Are we trying to reinvent the real is really all this is about is the medicine is frankly the same as it was in the eighties and the early seventies of Baltimore, and frankly the medicines remarkably same as it was in nineteen I think we've moved beyond that, not as not as fast as I'd like, because remember, the empty effective market is as they call it in the farming industry, has not been strong because it's not a big money

maker for the pharma company so it's not been prioritized like it has for you know, diseases where illnesses where you have to take medicine every day. Uh So, the anti effective is a short term treatment and therefore it's not as lucrative for the big farma companies. But we do have some verly exciting mono clone landa body therapies,

we have some anti viral drugs. We could do much better at exploration in R and D and a number of us have been saying, Okay, if we can't rely on the big pharma companies to start doing the R and D and produced these medicines, should we we be looking elsewhere creatings on nonprofit biotex or we're gonna be the key The key piece to this, Tom is we need almostvation in the business model as we do in

the science. And when young people talk to me, they say they want to go into infectious disease and global health. What should I do? Dr Hotel is often very disappointed when I tell them get a good m b a. Or get a law degree, because we need as much innovation in the raining astainable business model for these things as anything else. Peter Hotez, thank you so much, on this historic day for joining us. He is with Baylor

College of Medicine. Thanks for listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast. Subscribe and listen to interviews on Apple Podcasts, SoundCloud, or whichever podcast platform you prefer. I'm on Twitter at Tom Keane before the podcast. You can always catch us worldwide. I'm Bloomberg Radio