Surveillance: Trump's Strategy With Giuliani

gone on to some success. He's going on to a lot of debate as well. We greet him here at seventies six years old and well preserved. Rudy Giuliani, I gotta get right to it. On Fox the other night. You make national headlines with a lot of coughing as well. How are you and have you had a test recently? Well, let me start with the good news. Year. I had a test recently the day of actually the day of that time that I was coughing. I coughed twice actually, and I was clearing my throat. I had a test

maybe two hours earlier. It came back yesterday and I'm negative. That's the second one I've had since I was with the group in the White House that unfortunately most of them came down with it. I feel very bad for them. I almost feel a little guilty, I guess, but uh I was one of the few, along with Jared and Ivanka that didn't. But so far I don't. And I'll go back and get tested again on Friday, and then I'll be out of the woodside. I mean, you've got

to be very positive about it. Also, I'm not. I'm not that nervous about it. I know that if it does happen, I know exactly what to take. My doctor has already prescribed hydroxy chloroquin, which I'm taking every day now for five days as a profilactor. He's a doctor prescribed that to you. You told the doctor you're gonna take this controversial. Oh no, the doctor has treated. The doctor has treated to thousand, five hundred patients who had this illness, believe it or not, a kind as a genius.

He invented as a LINKO protocol, and he's lost only two patients. Roody, you are the personal confidant to the President. He's tweeted twice this morning. He is in recovery. He wants to get back to the Oval office and work. Have you spoken to him in the last twenty four hours and what are you going to advise him to get this campaign back on the rails. Well, I mean what he's doing, which is he's got his sorry gets

out all over the country, making speeches, making talks. He is uh, he's communicating from the White House, communicating what he has to be from the White House, and as soon as he can, he'll he'll be back out on on the road himself. But he's got something like five hundred sorry gets in all different parts of the country, particularly in the key battleground states, who are speaking for him. I'm going to go to interrupted. Look, Mike Pence has

the most important vice presidential debate tonight. You and Mike Pence have the president's ear. What are you telling him and what is Mike Pence gonna do tonight to get the campaign on the track to get the marginal voter that the president has clearly lost. He hasn't really lost it. You're reading polls that that were the same polls he was behind by. If I take you back four years, we were three days after the Billy bush Uh revelations, and he was being countered out at this point, and

he was about eighteen points behind, seventeen points behind. So I mean, I I understand what's wrong with the polls. They over sampled Democrats. Uh, there's anywhere anywhere near a five to six point differential in favor of Trump. That's not there because you don't measure enthusiasm. His enthusiasm level is still three times Bidens the Biden voter, half of them of voting, you know, just because the Democrats, the

other half of voting had a hatred for Trump. The Trump voters voting for because they love him and because they realize he's been one of the most consequential presidents ever. And and they are very afraid of a socialist state because they believe that Biden is impaired and not able to really handle the Come on, Rudy forces Rudy John Farrell wants to get in here. Do you see evidence that the former vice president is impaired? Oh? Absolutely, what

don't you present? Not only that, I've had doctors look at him, and I've done a podcast on it. Rudy Giuliani's common Sense dot Com go look at it. The two doctors will compare speeches. Joe Biden gave five years ago. Which species he's giving now? He loses his train of thought in the middle of a sentence, So do I, John Farrell? J No, you know, Oh, come on, I lose my train of thought on an hourly basis, John,

I pledge allegiance. Pledge allegiance to the flag in the United States of America and to the Republic for which it stands, One nation under God, indivisible with liberty and justice. Roll now, Joe Biden, I pledge allegiance to the United States underguard John, John about he couldn't how about he couldn't get those aren't listen? Listen, listen to me. Go get the g Let's not even argue about it. Go get ds M five. You know what that is? Ds

M five. You know it's the psychiatrist's handbook. Go look at the ten symptoms of dimension. He's got eight of them. One of them is was to train numbers three oh three oh three, three oh three oh three. Oh No, he doesn't remember it. John doesn't know. He doesn't remember it because he has dementia. It's a disease. It's as he doesn't have it. Honestly, we're talking about something that is peripheral. Honestly, the American people the chance he's disgraceful.

It's please please cutting me off in the middle. Honestly, you are being you are being obstructive. I am talking about facts. I'm talking about a psychiatric textbook. You don't even know. You don't want the American people to hear that the guy running for president has an illness. It is clear, it's obvious. Go read D S M five, look for the symptoms of dementia. He's got eight of them. And don't tell me. That is the truth. I know it's uncomfortable for you, but it's the truth. He's also

a big crook. What guy thing through? Rudy Rudio. Don't talk to me in that game. Don't you do? Not talk to me in that in that tone. Match you, dani As if what I'm saying isn't worthy of consideration to ask you a question. I'm just here to ask you a question on the medical state of the former Vice President Joe Biden. Let's focus. Let's focus on the

three point five million. Let's focus on the three point five million from one of the close friends of Putin in Russia that went to his son suffering from drug addiction. Why would you pay three point Why did China pay the Sun thirty million? The Communist Party of China? Can we talk about the things that you don't talk about the things that you hide American people. We've agreed to do an interview, yes, not a monologue. Do you want

to let me ask some questions? No? No, I've agreed to come on so that I can tell the truth. I didn't come on to be doing an interview. Mr Pharaoh is going to ask you a question, because that's what we do here, ask me question to ask you a question of the former mayor of New York City. But you can't stop me if you don't like what I'm saying, Rudy Well not just want to focus the interview a little bit, madic Lani. You have directed scrip preparation with the president for if you can answer to

talk about the debates Governor Christie? Now, why don't we talk about Why don't we talk asident going talked about? Absolutely not. We can tell you let me finish the answer finished. You haven't even let me complete the question. Let me let's do that. Wait, the complete the question, the fair one. I've been asking a question about the debates, sir, so let's start there. I'm not interested in getting combative

with you. The debates which you had direct involvement in to prepare the president for Governor Christy said the president was too hots What did you learn from those debates?

I learned that the president has to do that when he's debating the moderator and Joe Biden, and when for for months the media has been covering up facts the American people have to know about Joe Biden, about his incredible history his and his families of taking money from countries like Iraq, countries like Ukraine, countries like Russia, and basically getting thirty million or more from the Communist Party of China with which his son has been a partner

for the last four years. The American people don't know that because those questions aren't asked, those things are suppressed. The reason they don't know that Joe Biden is demented is because you cut off those parts of his interviews when he loses his train of thought, as he did twice the other night. So that's my answer to the question. Next question, We appreciate your time. Thank you very much for joining us today, said cell Phony than the former

math New York City, the Democratic very much. John A disremarkable Tom Kane, It is remarkable to see this John after the State of the City. I have the clearest memories, way way back pre Giuliani of getting out near the Port Authority into what was, you know, the romance of it now of a tougher New York City. But it's amazing what this guy accomplished into those particularly younger how different he is now as we just witnessed uh In. As you correctly said, John of monologue, is well, Lisa,

you're still with us? Did you survive? That is a native New Yorker. Honestly, the one thing I wanted to ask him as he said that it doesn't worry him that much getting the virus. And my key question is this the new tactic that the virus just isn't that big of a deal. Is that the message from the White House That seems to be what President Trump was saying. I don't think we're getting a very clear answer, and

that medical professional is pushing back. I do wonder though, is that the message John, I you know what's so important? And what Lisa says that that insight is the President saying, well, maybe I'm immune. John It was such a different tone from Prime Minister Johnson, Wasn't it? What an interview? Why aren't we talking about the elephant in the room? I mean, come on, that was just absolutely ridiculous in the last ten minutes, Tom, absolutely ridiculous. Understand. Josh wind Groves with

US Now Bloomberg News, White House Reporter, Josh. Fantastic to catch up with you, sir, Thanks for joining us today. Let's try and focus the debate. Very difficult to focus the debate. If an individual that is helping you prepare for that debate conducts himself in that manner, how on earth will this debate shape up? On October fifth? It's in Miami, Florida. I mean, I'm a bit at a

loss for words. I guess I would say that Rudy has been dieting on the same sort of uh feed of misinformation that the President has for since sime Um and they're convinced that there is conspiracy going on ways and I think you've learned a little bit of that. Um. Look, you know, I I was some news and also was it he's onto droxychlor quin as as a preventative measure after he sat next to Chris Christie for a few days. Chris Christie, of course, has come down with the virus

UH and checked himself into hospital. Uh Is issued a point in warning for that drug, essentially thinking as the emergency youth authorized use authorization. So, um, you know, but outed it? So I guess that to you. But but Rudy sure seemed upset. I don't know, John, you don't have that effect on me normally, but you know, there's always tomorrow. What is so important here, Josh is we saw the president come out of a very close managed theater into that first debate, and all of us, whatever

our politics, saw the responsive performance of that debate. And now we see Mayor Giuliani coming out of the convenience and comfort of the bubble, particularly as personified by as many conversations with a large family of Fox properties. Fine, can this president, from your reporting go outside the bubble to speak to marginal voters that don't buy what we just heard from the hundred and seventh mayor? He has

not ever shown interest in doing that. And part of the collision course of this election has been the president and people around him coming out of their sort of Fox News orbit and you know, engaging with other media,

and it often ends up like this. And we saw it with that town hall that ABC ran, what was it three weeks ago, George Stepanopolis and Trump got a lot of questions about from people on handling the virus, downplaying the virus, things that people around him have declined to raise with him, right, and so was sort of a bubble popping a little bit for him. Now, the President continues to believe that there is a silent majority out there backing him. But I mean, pull after pull

after pull, don't show it. In particular, it looks like he's about to get clovered among women voters. We're talking by twenty points to the poll showed over thirty points gap among women voters yesterday. So you know, honestly, like I guess, you know, we'll know it I November a third, which reality is correct, But but some days it just feels like everyone's looking at totally different song sheets. Josh.

There's also a question if this is the new message out of the White House, that people are overplaying the virus, that the pandemic isn't that serious? Is there an audience for that view? Are there a lot of voters who find that to resonate with them and want life to just go on and are willing to take the risk? I mean there are, but they're the same voter based that the president has. I mean pull up to pull up.

The poll shows that people believe that Trump doesn't take it the virus seriously and have that they want more action, and particularly on Congress, and we saw the President blow up the stimulus talks and then waffle back on forth and on Twitter throughout the night. Um, you know that the president the people think Biden would be better uh under pulling to manage the virus like pull out to

pull up the poll shows. So you know, I think that any day that Donald Trump spent talking about the pandemic as the law station campaign, our international audience particularly just got a window into a segment of the of the President's support there with Mayor Giuliani and of course you know the heat the firm ut Fermat rather of those that are committed to Donald Trump. That's fine, but how does all this redound over to the Senate races?

I know, you're a White House reporter. But what does this tension, particularly tension of conspiracy and ill will and almost criminal intent of Democrats, what does that mean to

the many Senate races? Um, Well, the sort of neutral prognosticators have slowly moved the Senate race forecasts in favor of Democrats, and instead of fighting this election in Colorado and Arizona, they're fighting in places like South Carolina and North Carolina, places the Republicans shouldn't really be in tight races. And so, as I say, we don't know, there's a lot of unknowns right now around mail in voting, how

many ballots are gonna get rejected. So you know, I don't mean anyone who's counting any chickens before they hatch, but you know the poll certainly Democrats seem a lot less worried about this poll right now than Republicans do. And you know, uh, if Democrats take the Senate, it could be a bit of a cold winter for for Republican Then we just don't know what will happen if Trump loses, right, I mean both in terms of how quickly he'll leave if you leave, but also what will

happen to the party. Does he still hold his grip. I think he will in at least some Alicia Levine with us is being y Malon with a really prodigious mathematical set, really wonderful academics on the dynamics. What are the dynamics right now, Alicia? Within the equity market with a cacophony of news, the wall of information, we're all exhausted by. What's the dynamic for stocks? That mattered to you?

Good morning everyone. Look, you know the thing is, since the of last Tuesday, the betting markets, forget the CNN polls in the Wall Street Journal post, the betting market started pricing in a Democratic sweep right, which means taking

the Senate as well as the White House. And what you saw was the cyclical rallying because the expectation is whether or not you get a stimulus bill in the next week or two, you're going to have something even larger in the first order, and as we know, markets anticipate and see through the noise of the next few months. And that's essentially what markets we're pricing in. And to the extent that it is becoming, it's looking like a more lopside victory for the Democrats. It may not happen.

But that's what the betting markets are telling us. Then markets are pricing in a huge fiscal bill, larger than anything that Minution or Pelosi could come up with right now at least. I keep returning to this question. What we're saying so far, is that just state position squeeze or do you think people have started to think about durable change over sustainable period that internal rotation hi yield to state a curve beyond just a two three month trade. Yes,

so I think investors are starting to position here. We don't like telling investors or our clients that they have to do particular things before election. Markets go up under both administrations and different configurations of of of of Congress. However, there's clear that certain sectors will be better off under different administrations. Certain sectors will will have, you know, some regulation under both, you know, both administrations. And so we

think it's time. With the outperformance of tech since the March, well and really for the two years beforehand, that's really time to start looking at the cyclicals. We do. We do think the US really has no choice here. There will be some fiscal stimulus past, whether it's the next week or two for the next four months we will be getting something and with rising deils that suggests cyclicals will be in favor. Are you making a multi year

projection here, Alicia? What is this two, three, four, five years? What is it? Look that is? That is a really tough question because right now policy is everything, and we know that right so said policy, central bank policy globally sustained markets, put a floor under market and it was

responsible really to the functioning of markets. What became a health crisis could have been a financial crisis and a banking crisis as well, and it wasn't because of the FED and fiscal stimulus globally has been enormous, and the US has really been in the forefront of of that, spending of GDP on fiscal so far and looking at another ten percent, which is really extraordinary. Just so much depends on policy, So there are vagaries and policy here

or there. The thought is that the FED may come in here and clarify its asset purchases monthly to help stabilize markets if there is no fiscal bill in the next week or two, to help get the market over that that hold on, Alicia, I'm so sorry, but to stabilize markets, markets are doing just fine. I struggle with this, the idea the federal come in with additional AS it purchases. The market right now is pricing in extra stimulus come next next year, regardless of who wins, regardless of how

it happens. What is that threshold of stabilization? What does

it take to get the vets attention here? So I think I think, look, if we heard J. Powell yesterday, I think if there's no fiscal in the next in the near term, meaning you know, soon next few weeks, maybe we hear something about AS that purchases, maybe, um, that is the hope of the market and the expectation of the market, because if if the fete, if the set is essentially begging Congress to do something and and the government says nothing, you would expect that the FAID

would try to do something as well. I think markets are supported here. I think we're volatile. It's a volatile season. The election is sort of this existential um risk, but not really to the extent that we have a clear victor and then we can move forward from there. And as we know, once policies are clear and direction is clear, you can invest Alicia great to catch up. Let's hope

we get some transparency and clarity very soon. Alicia levating that b M y Melon chief strategist on this market, the only undecided voter who Florida joins US right now. Douglas Cass of Sea Breeze Partners. Doug Cass, how are you, sir? Y're holding up good? We finally lost the game last night. Yeah, it's tough. You know it's tough. I knew you'd don't. Don't don't forget Tom the greatest Yankee team in history, murderers Row, Yeah, I think they were and ten forty four.

Ruth hit sixty home runs, Garrig hit about they didn't win every playoff. I have been dying to speak to you and folks, for those of you a little bit younger, there is nothing that stopped time like Sandy Kofax. Yes, Bob Gibson, it was just stunning to think about the violence of those two in their different way. I mean, Doug Cass three great pictures, then Gibson Cofax and Marichelle. Yeah, I had the honor of seeing one Mirochelle as a

young kid out of Candlestick Park. I hurt myself. I think Doug Cass in the backyard trying to get that high like going. Bob Gibson was feared, wasn't he? It was different? Oh? God, he was tenacious, wasn't he. Sandy was like a ballerina. Yeah, but Gibson was tough. Um. If you it's hard to explain it. You had been around watching him. He was tenacious. They pitched from a higher amount two, which made a difference. Bob Gibson dying of cancer and the ball was dead. Should the ball

be dead now? So judges? The ball the judge hit the other day is yet to go down. It's not touched the ground yet. Should the ball be dead now? To bring the small ball game back? Doug Gass, No, it's fun. We do. We have the judge and John Carlo and I can't wait. Sweeney save us with an equity market question. Please exact The Yankees are gonna bounce back. I'm or that tonight, so exact, right, exactly right. So you know we had the president seemingly pulled back from

this fiscal stimulus. What do you make of that? How do you how does that impact kind of how you're thinking about the market? Sure? Sure, uh my, my strong investment and trading advice is to consider the contrary UM to trade unemotionally to take advantage of the artificiality of stock prices, which is a function of the changing market structure over the last decade from active to passive manage investing UH In a way, the market participants are the

least educated and least informed investors and histories UM. And we also have to understand in looking at the stock market this is really tough because it's such crappy stuff happening, especially to small businesses, that this is a Darwinian market in which the large companies with operating expertise, large market shares, strong financials, continue to a market share and have the as Warren Buffett used to say, every deeper competitive modes.

About two weeks ago, the SMP was faltering, a broke was down about from the highs, and I coined the term the Biden bump to describe what I was seeing in the market and provided an explaination why I was buying in the belief of the tradeable rally over the balance of the year, and referencing what you just said, we have the apparent termination of stimulus talks, which has led to the Biden burp yesterday late afternoon. But I still believe in the Biden bump, and I think that

the two week rally may not be over. I actually bought futures last night and spiders in the dip. Actually, I think it might be far from over because of the Biden bump. So, Doug, are you kind of in the camp here? It looks like again just looking at the polls here, we had to see an end pole uh Monday showing a pretty big lead by former Vice President Joe Biden. How are you thinking about the election? Really important? And again I have a contrary view, um,

So what is the Biden bump? What does it mean? What's the value of non consensus? Um? I think the worst outcome for the markets poll would have been a close and litigated election in which the outcome would be in certain for days, weeks, or even months. Uh. In this case, there could have been civil unrest. The markets would not only suffer, but the markets would likely grow a lot more volatiles. So the Biden bump began two weeks ago in the polls and betting parlors has been

conspicuous in the last two weeks. As of this morning, Nate Silvist eight has Biden fifty probability of winning election. It was two weeks ago uh And predicted and the other betting polls also have a similar outcome. So I have very briefly six factors in my Biden bump list. Number one wherever us or to a vaccine and therapeutics

that we have been at any point this year. I said in March, and one of the reasons why I grew very optimistic on stocks um that you have to have a strong belief in our health and scientific communities, and just look at this week's Regenera news I still do. Secondly, we're approaching a normal seasonal strength in equities. Third, the FED is not going to change monetary course. Our central banks and others globally are committed like never before the

fuel domestic economic growth. Fourth, if the market does go higher, we have this changed and embedded market structure change which could exacerbate the short term recovering prices. Fifth, investors, given the heightened uncertainties that everyone knows about our position negatively or defensively, they're off side of the market rallies. They will have their reverse And finally, my can my base

case expectation now and so is the market. The bending poles, the betting and the polls is that we're going to see a blue wave. So I think it's going to hasten the imperative in the passage of a massive physical stailist program, perhaps more of TOM than two point two trillion, possibly as soon as February. The markets are going to smell this out and they're going to begin to discount this by taking stocks higher over the needed term. Don't look at the rear view mirror in terms of the

failing um UH negotiations today. I never thought the Democrats and Republicans wouldn't agree. After all, it's not in either their interests. Unfortunately to care sabres with us. We're going to continue down three into thirteen points SPS thirty eight points cast killing it. Doug. I want to go back just a few years to Putnam into Kidder Peabody. There's a point you where you're as smart as you think you are, and then you realize that forget about the mathematics, Graham,

Dot Coddle and all the rest of it. The fact is corporations always adjust, and it's always underestimated that they will adjust to whatever the market gives them, the economy gives um, etcetera. Are we underestimating once again the mailability of big companies, you know, stock trading companies to readjust it's a great point. It's one of my themes. H If you look at the stock markets advanced tom since March, it's reflecting a triumph of triumph of big business over

small business. We as investors don't invest in the neighborhood bar or restaurant, or in a laundromat or in a local candy store. It say have to say that many of these small businesses are all at or over the abyss we invest and the stock market cadies to people of jobs, work at solvent and growing businesses. This is a V shaped recovery and housing this is a U

shaped recovery and autos. The moats, the competitive advantages that exist at Costco, Walmart, Target, Amazon, Google, Netflix, Twitter, Home Depot improved with COVID nineteen, their moats have deepened. They were not impaired by the virus. Unfortunately, the government, and by that I mean both sides of the Pew, the Congress, the White House, have failed our small businesses which have been gutted by covid. Doug, Amazon, give us an update here.

You've written voluminously on Amazon is a long term investment out to thirty three thousand. First of all, are they going to split forty one so they can go down? I don't think m Bezos is splitting. But Amazon's Amazon has been and most most periods in the last since December, when the stock dotch locked down to my largest position. UM, I made the case on I guess it was Bloomberg TV, not radio with you um that it would trade at three thousand and two, would trade at five thousands, and

everyone laughed at me. I think I might have been low. It obviously traded ruth thousand over the through three thousand over the short term. But their mode is is so deep, their resources are so strong. They're operating acumen and logistical operating acumen is so sophisticated. Visa v competition, we gotta go. Give me a three year target. Three year target, I would say seven thousand. Okay, good Doug cast, Thank you so much. Thanks for listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast.

Subscribe and listen to interviews on Apple Podcasts, SoundCloud, or whichever podcast platform you prefer. I'm on Twitter at Tom Keane Before the podcast, you can always catch us worldwide. I'm Bloomberg Radio