Surveillance: Too Early To Get Bearish, Slimmon Says

head into twenty two, what strategy looks appropriate to him. Andrew, very good to speak to you. I won't ask you about the specifics around the Turkish liver, will leave that

for another day. But let me ask you about your expectations for equity returns given what we're expecting now from the Fed, Given how fast our expectations of the FED are changing and shifting and the market is having to price in higher interest rates a little bit sooner, what does that do to your expectation is full equity reserves returns and how do you position appropriately? Good morning, Yes, so you know, look, I've been on the show a lot and I've been pretty optimistic from from the lows.

Uh simply because I said was going to be ultra accommodative, and as the central banks begin to move off that accommodative pivot, it means that equity returns are still going to be positive, but they're going to be lower. And in that environment, I simply think that it requires a little bit more of a balance between risk on stocks and risk off stocks, i e. Controlling you know, kind

of debate of your portfolio. And so we've just had this extreme risk off move he has to market is only down three percent, but uh staples are up eight percent, and you know, financials energies are down on the month, and so you've had an extreme move and I think that's going to be the story going forward, more so than it's really been since the lows of March two thousand twenty, which has really been a period of risk on and so I think it's just simply going to

require a little bit more of a Bell's portfolio. But what I wouldn't do right now is I would not chase the defensive risk off socks. They've just had a very big move on a relative basis, and I think that's gonna be the story over the next year, which is you're gonna have these periods of big risk off and then the market is gonna come roaring back. So

I think you can take advantage of it. And in this environment you have to start to scratch your heads and ge maybe I should be looking around some of these banks or energy socks or small caps are down a lot, and then waiting for a better period to add to defenses. If in fact you're under right there and that's you know, that's really hurt you the last last three weeks. But I wouldn't chase them here. Andrew, you say, you're not getting em barished, You're just getting

less bullish. Can we dig into the nuances of that and provide some definitions. What is the difference between a barish outlook and a decreasingly fullish one. Sure, so what you see is obviously the first year offlo like we had in the last two thousand and twenty, you have a very strong market because the Feds just pouring money in. And the second year, which is this year, the market continues.

It happens every time because you have a combination of big earnings recovered by corporate fundamental and the essential banks pumping liquidity. It is typically in the third year that we're going into where returns remain positive, but they're not as strong because you have kind of a battle between still good corporate fundamentals, and I think that's gonna be the story next year. But you don't get the p expansion,

you don't get the liquidity pump from the FED. So the result is a little bit more of a you know, the fence tends to throw cold water on kind of strong corporate funals. Look what's going on today. We've got more companies reporting great earnings, but you don't have that further injection coming from the FED. And the result is is positive returns for equties in the third year, which would be too down just not as good as you

see in the past. I think it's way too early to get barished to think the market's going down because corporate fundamentals are going to continue to come in strong. It's just not as good as what we've seen off the law. So, Andrew is essentially what you're saying that, regardless of what happens with monetary policy, earnings growth can

carry equities higher. Yeah, it's not just earnings growth, clearly, it's surprises, earnings revisions, and you know this year, uh, this year, everyone thinks, oh, it's you know, the FED pumped the market up. There's a lot of speculation. The market is only up this year by the magnitude of earnings revisions. So it's not the PEED that's gone up, it's the E that has gone up, and the E

has repriced the P higher. So the key question is as we go into next year, and the estmim it for the consensus for the SMP earnings next year is two seven. Is that going to be too high or too low or just right? And if it's too high, markets going down. And if it's just right, I think the market also goes down because you have the FED pulling piece, that probably weighing on piece. But I don't

think that's the case. I think it's going to be yet again too low because classically, coming out of an of a recession, Wall Street tends to be too cautious initially. And what we hear from companies, and you know, I'm not I'm not a strategist on portfolio management. I listened companies all day long. I hear corporate balance sheets, strong

liquidity is there. I think it's going to be a very active year for companies buybacks, M and A S. I think it will be a good year, and I think that number to seven for next year will come in way too low. But again, the Fed's got a cold throw a little cold water on too much enthusiasm. Andrew, if you don't mind, I'd love to dig into sort of your factor strategy and maybe your capitalization strategy and

that kind of environment. You mentioned that low volatility stocks have really surged off of extremely oversold levels back in October and that may not continue into the year ahead. What factor do you like for two? And then further, what do you do about small caps? And obviously the large cap in next has held on significantly better than small caps. Small caps now testing the bottom of a pretty significant range. Trade. Is that an opportunity or a risk?

It's an opportunity at this juncture. Okay, So the key thing is small caps, uh, like you know, value stocks, cyclic coals, emerging markets, uh, cryptocurrencies you aim it. They're all risk assets. So they've been hit over the last month, and so if you want to tow in now the opportunity to do it. But I think they will come a time when they will have big bounces and that then the point is don't chase them because in a lower and return environment you're gonna have bigger swings in

risk on risk off. So what's our strategy. I'm a core manager. We've been overweight value stocks, right and so that worked great until you know, around Thanksgiving. But fortunately what we've done starting this summer is we started to layer in more of the risk off, low bated defensive stocks to offset that valuating. So, Um, the reason we like value is simply because those stocks have not repriced

back to where they should coming out of recession. And I think the reason there's been this fits and starts is simply because, unlike previous sessions, we keep having the problem of the recession coming back and hitting us again. It's called COVID, and when that happens, it seems to derail the value trade. But I don't think it's over yet. So again, in in a period like we've just seen the last three weeks, now is the time to buy

value stocks. But I think you bounced that with this, you know, staples, the utilities, reads, defenses, and uh, if we have a risk back on period, which I think is very possible starting today, Um, then I think those socks will underperform, and we'll go back and say, what's you know, what stocks should we look to add to? And I when I run through my list of my portfolio, I say, well, what stocks have been hammered recently? Well, it's the banks, it's the energy, And what stocks have

really done well? Well? Staples and uh, you know a couple of low risk insurance companies. You don't want to buy those? Those are the wants to trip. So I think there's gonna be a lot of opportunity to take advantage of what the market offers, but you have to be willing to go against the grain, and against the grain means to take a little bit more risk. Right here today, interesting stuff. Thank you so much for joining us, ANDREWS.

Lemon of Morgan Stanley, appreciate your time. Dr amish Adalgia, Senior Scholar at the Johns Hopkins Center for How Security is joining us now, Dr Adulgia, Clearly this is spreading quite rapidly, and it is doing so even in people who are fully vaccinated and boosted. If that is the case, can we vaccinate our way out of the wave of this variant? Or is the only answer here more restrictive measures. It's sort of neither. We can't vaccinate our way out, But I think we have to start to think about

what we're what are our goals with this pandemic. What are our goals with COVID nineteen. And this is not a disease that can be eradicated or eliminated. Our goal is to decouple cases from hospit fitalizations. And when you look at the cases that are occurring in vaccinated individuals and boosted individuals, they are mild. They usually don't even require a call to the doctor. That's a good thing, that's a victory. So I think we have to emphasize

the severity of illness. So if vaccinated people have mild illnesses, I think that's a victory for the vaccines and a victory for us. What we're seeing in the hospitals, and I last weekend I worked in the hospital of the whole weekend. What you're seeing our unvaccinated individuals that are occupying I see you beds occupying other beds and stressing, stressing the staff. So I think we have to draw separation.

Their cases are always going to be there, especially with a variant likeness it's all about making sure our hospitals don't go over capacity. And they think you're going to hear some of that in the President's speech today about how they're going to to shore up those hospitals, and I think that's how we move forward, this kind of two track pandemic, one for the vaccinated and one for

the unvaccinated. Well, speaking of our hospital systems and the possibility that they get overwhelmed, given the trajectory of cases already,

how quickly could we see that happen. It's likely going to be in the next couple of weeks where we see stress on hospitals, and some hospitals will be able to absorb it, but others are going to have a lot of difficulty because even though O Macron is the cases sequence, Delta is probably the predominant version of the virus that's hitting hospitals right now and has a lot of patients with Delta inside them, So they're going to be dealing with Delta and then O Macron on top

of it. Delta will eventually fade away, but if they get too many patients at one time, it can be very, very difficult. And they think this is going to be a regional rather than a systemic problem, and we have healthcare coalitions hospitals that work together. They have to really do that for real. They can't just check a box that they're part of a coalition. They have to load balance and make sure that no hospital is going down.

And hopefully the coordination from the federal government with the National Disaster Medical System, with the Department of Defense, they'll be able to do that in a much more efficient way. But this is not the same thing as December. We're in a much better place, even though there are scary headlines, even though we have this new variant, We've got a lot more tools and a lot more knowledge. So Tosa a good morning. So we have a lot more tools.

This isn't a December tweency twenty. It's not the same situation at all. We're we're very vaccinated in wealthy countries around the world. Of course, you did through a distinction there between the load place on hospitals by the vaccinated and the unvaccinated. Is that going to be evident you think in the President's speech later on. Is it possible to craft different policies for these different parts of society

that will be palatable to to U S citizens. I do hope the President places the blame squarely where it is, because, like I said, it's not people that lack of booster shot. It's not people who who who are fully vaccinated that are getting hospitalized. It's people who lack any shots. And in the United States that's being done willfully. People are choosing not to get vaccinated and then choosing to destroy

their community hospitals. And I do think that we should draft policies different from the vaccinated and the unvaccinated, because if you are vaccinated, the virus treats you very differently, so other people should treat you very differently. That how I think we have to move forward because what we see is the vaccinated that have done everything they can to preserve hospital capacity by getting vaccinated, by following the science.

But then you have this group of people and they're concentrated in certain parts of the country, in certain regions, they are not vaccinated by choice, and what they're doing is crushing their own community hospitals. And I think we have to call that out because this is being this is something that didn't have to be. These are all

vaccine preventable hospitalizations. Vaccine preventable deaths, and these people are choosing to do this, and I think that's something that needs to be called out, even if it angers people. I think it's the truth. Doctor. I'd like to talk a little bit about the variant itself and what we've learned so far from O Macron and about the virus

and it's various mutations. Um. Over the last couple of weeks, some of the rumors have come out that potentially the nature of Omicron itself suggests that this virus will die out supposedly cloth faster than other viruses have in the past. Is that true what we learned about O Macron itself, and with respect to what to expect about future variants and the longevity of the virus overallad overall, well, the Stars Kobe Too virus is with us. It's not going

to magically go back into baths. And some of these variants come and go as the virus is put under Darwinian selection pressure to be able to transmit more efficiently to get around immunity. And with O Macron, it's unclear how long this surge of cases is going to last. If you look at South Africa, if you look at Denmark in the UK. It seems to be following in different pattern than than Delta. For example, Delta went in kind of two month waves. This seems to be shorter.

Hopefully that's the case, but I don't know that we have enough information or understanding. What it might be is that this virus variant is exploiting network effects. It's infecting people that are out there doing things, and then it basically runs out of those types of people and everybody else is a little bit more careful, so it doesn't

have new people to infect. It's unclear if that's going to be the case, but I think we have to all be prepared for the fact that, oh, Macron and other down the line are going to become part of our daily lives, but they're going to be a less a less severe version of COVID. As we get more tools by being vaccinated, monocloni, l antibodies, anti virals, rapid test, that's going to tame this virus and shift illness towards

the mild side of the spectrum. And that's exactly where we where we wanted, and that's been the goal of this whole public health endeavor from the beginning. All Right, Thank you so much for your really valuable insight this morning. Thank you so much for joining us. Dr amish adalgia of Johns Hopkins and of course the Johns Hopkiness School of Public Health is supported by Michael Are Bloomberg, who is the foundering majority owner of Bloomberg LP. Sarah Hunt

poorfilio manager Alpine Woods Capital Investors, joining us now. Sarah, great to see you. Um, I want to paraphrase Gina from a little earlier on in the hour, we are buying the dip. Once again, the mentality is still intact. What does it take to change that mentality? And does

that happen next year? Okay, while I was watching Bloomberg before I came on this morning, so I'm going to have to agree with James Affy and say that it has to be that the market continues to go down after you've what that dip, and it starts to have and it starts to be a pain trade. It has not yet been a pain trade. And every time that the market has had some weakness and people start looking for protection, they also end up earning money on that

protection as well. And that has become such a it's become such a pattern that I think it's difficult for people to remember what it's like when markets don't just have a recovery every time there's a down draft. So Sarah, talk to us a little bit about your ELOK for two. I know you see things changing a little bit as financial conditions become slightly more rational as the FED starts to scale back on their on their input. Where do you see equities headed in the year ahead and how

will things be different next year relative to the last two. Well, I think that there is going to be more of a focus on cash generation and earnings instead of some of the loftier price of sales kind of ratios that you've seen in some of the areas where that sort of FED backstop has really helped companies that don't yet have earnings or don't yet have really a good balance sheet.

I think that that's going to start to make a difference. Um. I also don't disagree with the fact that macro factors drive a lot of investing, and so it's not going to be the only thing. I would also love a world where we could count on valuations and we could do that kind of fundamental work that we all started out doing, but that's just not the world that we

live in. I do, however, think that growth is going to continue to be important, but it has to be profitable growth, and I think that's where you're going to have a bifurcation in some of the tech sectors, Whereas the stocks that are able to make money and grow and actually put up earnings and have a decent balance sheet are going to be able to withstand the pressures of the concerns about technology versus some of the stocks that don't quite have the earnings or anything else yet

they are. I think that's going to be a little bit different going into two. This strong balance sheet story has been such a big part of the US outperformance relative to the rest of the world for years. Now, are you seeing opportunities emerge elsewhere into as the fails, as the FED scales back, as we see valuations come under some degree of pressure in the US naturally, Where

are you looking for the opportunities globally? Well? I think, I mean a lot of US companies have a huge global presence, so you can be we tend to have mostly domestic based companies in our portfolios, but there are a lot of them with the big international presence, so you start to look with the places where you think you might get a benefit from what's going to happen in two Unfortunately, a lot of the rest of the world is suffering, not just from COVID, but you know,

Europe still is having some problems with economic growth. The US is still a reasonably good growth space, and I think that part of China's problem with growth and what they're trying to do to fix it with dropping the reserve ratio and everything else, makes other parts of the

world a little riskier at the moment. So, you know, we still think the United States is a good market, and we think that companies within it that have international reach can perform fairly well going into well Sarah I, I continue to talk about how the year has shaken out far from what consensus thought it would. Part of the call was international versus us, part of it was shifted value over grow, small caps over large None of those trades really worked out as we were expecting. And

that also applies to the yield curve. While we saw that steeper curve in the beginning of the year, what we have gotten since March really is just a persistently flatter curve. Do you expect that is going to continue to be the case and can you be a buyer financials in that kind of environment. Well, you know, some of the financials were doing fairly well in a in

the yield curve environment before it's steepened. I think the problem, the knee jerk reaction to a flatter yield curve for financials is that it's going to be much harder for them to make money. But I think that in the last you know, since the financial crisis, they've all been fairly clever about ways to make money that are not only yield curve dependent. So I think I think that they can end up performing better. But I think that the playbook says the old curve is flattening, then sell

the financials. And I'm not sure that that actually is something that's going to be helpful in terms of, you know, whether or not those stocks can actually perform. But it's going to take the market a while to realize that they can perform even with a flatter yield curve. Okay, so Sarah, can we get some specific picks? I mean, what what are your favorite stocks in your portfolio right now? What would you be looking to add positions to well.

I think the pull back and the financials gives you an opportunity in some of the stocks we like, like JP Morgan, UM, We like City because they've got a real self help story. The stock is not performed well this year, but we think it's got some real ability to improve its own underlying performance without so much of a market help. So I think that those are some interesting places that we like. There's some places in the

technology space that we like. I mean, we've owned Oracle for some time UM, and I think that there are some other areas where you've got real earnings, You've got some earnings growth, You've got acam I, You've got some other companies where there's going to be some growth there

and they're overcoming some older legacy businesses. And I think that that's a story that we like going into two, because again, you want to see some valuation underpinning, even if it's not the entire market that's looking at valuations. For us, we would like to see evaluation underpinning that we can live with. Sarah, what's your degree of confidence that the U S consumer is going to continue to power through two? If I take a look at the

savings ratio. Certainly as a percentage disposed of income, it's coming down fairly sharply. Gas prices are up, rents coming up. Where does that leave the consumers ability to spend? Well, you know, unfortunately, because we are still back in this, you know, we have a new variant iteration coming through. I think that there's still a lot of pent up demand for travel and for experiences, and that keeps getting pushed out, even with the vaccines, where we thought that

was going to make a huge difference. I mean, I think that was part of the optimism of early one, is that those vaccines we're going to allow things to reopen, and we weren't going to be back in a situation where getting on a plane is difficult to do, Traveling internationally is difficult to do, Traveling even internally is more challenging.

So I think that there is room for demand for that, But I do not disagree that the a lot of the prices are coming up that will eat away at some of the ability to do that when it starts to become more available. On the other hand, you know that a lot of the spending happens at you know, where people for whom it is not as big of a problem as it is um for people where you

don't have as much chushion from inflation. Yeah, all right, Sarah Hann of Alpine Woods, thank you so much for joining this, and I'm wishing a happy and healthy holiday. Let's talk about whether or not we can characterize the FED as hawkish. Neil Data US Economic Research had at Renaissance Macro Research has a bit of an opinion on this. Neil track this for me. You think that the FED could actually move potentially four times next year, and at

the same time you say, don't call them hawkish? Why, well, because I think they're following the data. I mean, you know, one of the interesting things about the the December fom C meeting is that, you know, they revised up their expectations for growth, they revised down their expectations for unemployment, and they revised up their expectations for inflation. So what do you expect them to do. Obviously they're gonna they're

gonna signal more interest rate increases. So um, if you sort of plug all their revision into a sort of standard or standard kind of tailor rule type model, um, they're not indicating they'd hike any more than that. So I don't really think what happened in December was about their so called reaction function. That's what we got at the June meeting, not December, and I think that's one of the reasons why at the you know, on the

day itself, the market sort of took the news and stride. UM. So I wouldn't characterize this is this is a hawk ish FED. I think this is a FED that's had they not signaled what they were what they did, um, they would look increasingly offsides relative to the data as it's coming in. Um. All right, Well, this is a FED that already has accelerated the pace of taping, tapering that looks set to end in March. Are we looking realistically at March liftoff? I mean, I certainly think it's

a live meeting. One of the reasons why they're accelerating the tapering is to make it a live meeting. And you know, then just think about what's going to happen between now and then. I think it's highly likely that we're gonna come back in the new year and we're gonna get a strong December jobs number point number one point number two. Um, what's going to change on the inflation picture between now and then. Uh. You know, we're being told by the usual suspects to keep waiting for

this moderation in goods prices. It's like waiting for godot. I mean, if you look at wholesale prices for use cars, they're still rising at a meaningful rate. Uh. And so we're not going to see a moderation in goods prices. Meanwhile, housing inventories have been paired back to the bone. I mean you think when you think they can't go any lower, they do. Um. People are buying homes at strong prices. Um. That's gonna continue to keep the pressure on rental inflation.

So you know, I think when you put these things together, you have strong jobs. We know that initial jobless claims are declining, We know that job openings are strong. To me, that sort of is presaging another decline in the jobless rate. Um. So I think we're gonna be back in March and the Fed's gonna be revising down there at spectation for unemployment, potentially revising up growth and maybe even taking their inflation

estimate up a little bit. Um. But I think you know the data as it's going to come in over the first quarter will probably lead them to hike, and Powell was pretty clear he doesn't seem that he doesn't. He's not signaling much discomfort with the limited space between the end of the tapering program and the first hype. UM. I think markets will be okay with it because it's

not the data, right. I mean, if you're if you're if you're in a in an accelerating nominal growth environment or a strong nominal growth environment, that's an environment where companies that trade on the SMP five can make profits. And that's ultimately what happens. There's very strong demand full stuff toysles are big built in a fairly significant way. Absolutely, I mean between p J Mass this year is the and for the benefit of our radio audience, Neil has

canceled the bookshelf for it from how Shot. Instead, he is surrounded by a pile of stepped animals, including what looks like a rather large minion from Despicable Me Guy. Someone, someone on Wall Street had to take a stand against standard bookshelf background, where you're a littered with books that, let's be honest of us have ever actually read. So no, I'm just normally normal Neil. Normally I work my way across people's bookshelves and try and read into kind of

what they think is behind them. Like I'm trying to I'm trying to do the same here. I got a mini mouse, I got a I got a pretty big minion. I think there's a troll in there somewhere as well. Um, it's it's a good, good, good selection you got going on, Neil. You talk about the sequencing and what the markets afraid of. At the moment, the market is apparently unafraid of a faster taper, it is unafraid of rate hikes. What about a roll in the battle rolling off with the balance sheet?

What about QT? Where does that come? And is that what you think will really spook investors? I think that's a great question. And if you go back to the most recent historical analog, Guy, Um, it's right. I mean the FED was hiking and the balance sheet was contracting and team the that year, I believe. I mean, Gena can correct me if I'm wrong. I think the SMP five hundred fell I think about six to seven percent

over the year. Um. But if you go back to that period, what was really the driver of that weakness and equities. Was it the FED or was it the fact that um, the former president was prosecuting a trade war. UM. You know, most of the big declines in the equity markets in ten didn't happen on days of interest of new FED information. It happened on days of trade tweets, UM, you know, pressing the you know, pressing the heat on

on the Chinese. UM. The broader economy was fine, So you had a tail one from the economy and earnings that year. You had a slight headwind from the FED. But really the weakness and equities that year I think was driven by the trade war. So unless President Biden wants to prosecute uh, you know, increasing trade tensions, which with China, I think the markets will will deal with it. And also two is probably going to be a year of synchronized global economic activity as we all end exit

the pandemic together. UM. One of the interesting data points that I've noticed UM lately, and you can take a look at our Twitter, is that mobility out of Emerging Asia, you know, Korea, Thailand, Indonesia, India, it's up into the right, which suggests that you know, they're getting on with it and that that to me suggests that we're going to

turn the corner on the supply chain issue. Neil, I'm glad you gave me the window to talk about because I think the one part of that's really missing from the discussion is the fact that that was a year of margin compression on the SMP five, perpetuated not only by the trade war, but also by a necessity for spending by some of the big cap tech docks in the name of Facebook and Google really starting to spend more on Internet security software and the like, compressing margins

for the index at large with then which then led to the correction. In my view, So when you talk about two and you talk about maybe some of this margin risk clearing in two, what's the mechanism by which you expect that margin risk to clear, Because I think we're starting to see the sort of the reality come to the forefront that supply chains are still somewhat constrained, and many people are saying that's not going to clear

until three at the earliest. Is there something else that you can see that that creates a pathway from margin expansion to resume into the year ahead, which will really certainly power a much more optimistic outlook for the index. Well, I think for the industrial sector, it's hard to argue that the supply chain issue want to improve, right, so at some level that will probably boost at least industrial sector margins. I mean, I don't think they're going to

be passing that onto consumers. UM. So I think that's the first point. And then secondly, I mean I think UM productivity is like to pick up somewhat as well. I mean, you know, remember we've been in besting a lot as it is, UM. You know, we're getting used to these new working arrangements. UM, so we'll probably see some rebound and productivity over the next year as well. And talking speaking to that productivity rebound, how do you

see labor costs playing into the overall environment. There is some concern that maybe labor costs will become more deeply embedded, resulting in upward inflation pressure at large over the course of this cycle. Is that not something that you see as a risk to the outlook. I mean, I think it's absolutely a risk, UM. But I guess the issue is what's going to happen with UM. You know, so right now, obviously you have a lot of people quitting

their jobs. Um, they're chasing wages higher, particularly in certain industries like leisure and hospitality and retail. It's certainly not

economy wide. Um. But I do think that as we exit the pandemic, you should begin to see more labor supply being freed up, and that may reduce the appetite for those that are currently quitting their jobs to keep doing so, right, and so as that happens, that should mitigate some of the pressure in wages, which in turn should mitigate some of the pressure unit labor costs that certain companies are seeing. Certainly, I would argue it's not

economy wide. I mean, um, but you are seeing it's you know, it's hard to deny what we see in you know, at the restaurant, in the restaurant industry, at the retail industry. But but I do think as labor supply gets released, those that are tempted to currently quit their jobs in search of a new new one will be less tempted to do so. Hey, Neil, this might be unfair. We have thirty seconds left and a viewer question coming through on IB Why are not why are

not longer interest rates higher due to higher inflation? No, that's a great question. I mean, I think the long end of the of the treasury market. I mean it's sort of a we need to see it to believe it. So you know, remember back in the we're dealing with a lot of these questions. But as the Fed was hiking, you saw the long end ultimately back up again in

an environment of strengthening US and global economic growth. Um. But I also think, um, you know, part of this is also a function of what's going on across commercial banks who have been gobbling up um treasury securities at a appreciable pace. All Right, have to leave it there. Thank you so much to Neil Data of Renaissance Macrow.

This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Thanks for listening. Join us live weekdays from seven to ten am Eastern on Bloomberg Radio and on Bloomberg Television each day from six to nine am for insight from the best in economics, finance, investment, and international relations. And subscribe to the Surveillance podcast on Apple podcast, SoundCloud, Bloomberg dot com, and of course on the terminal. I'm Tom Keene, and this is Bloomberg