Surveillance: The Dollar Can Climb Higher, Foley Says

and even the projection. So let's bring in Jane Foley from London Rabba bankhead of fect Strategy. Jane, what was your takeaway on a hugely debated federal Reserve decision which really generated very little change at all. Well, that's exactly right. But I think what the market really is debating about right now is is what's going to happen? Saying the tailor under twenty nineteen, what's going to happy? I think

that's what the largest amount of uncertainty is concerned. I mean, already surveys are suggesting that the UK or the US they could go into ston in twenty Therefore, there's still I think a lot of uncertainty about what would happen back from the second half of so you sort of know what that has projected to do in in the say, the next twelve months. But beyond that, I think there's a lot of uncertainty uncertainty, and I think that's really

where the crux of the debate is. And Jane, what often comes with the Fellow Reserved decision as the summary of economic projections, And as you points out, that's where we get the forecasts from each and every individual Fellow Reserve official who plot where they think rates should be

or will be over the coming years. We have a pretty good idea of where the President of the United States would put his dot plot on this specific dot chard m Jane for you, though, it's quite interesting looking out, looking out, we see a pretty spread out view of rates and a pretty big range as well. What do you make of that. I don't see the bunching that

maybe we've seen in decisions and forecasts gone by. Well, I think a year we've had this debate about bond deals and what are they telling us of that The curve earlier in the year was planning in the market got quite upset about the possibility of that that was

showing a slowdown. We know, of course right now that the US is benefiting, of course from the the expansionary impact of fiscal listening at the tax cuts, but we also know that as we move forward in this cycle, particularly when you take account of the progressive interest rate hikes that we've had from from the FED, that that will run out of steam. Hence you get the talk

about recession in twenty now. Talking about recession in twenty when the US and saying in the second quarters just posted growth of four point two percent, seems quite difficult to reconcile. And yet that's the path that we may be on. And therefore, um, you know, it is very difficult, I think, for economists to find a real consensus in that time frame. And that is where I think all the uncertainty at regarding me, the treasuries and also the

U s. Dollar. Did the turn to the Ustorians at the tail end of next year, That really lie Jen stayed with me. I'm very pleased to say that my conker is making an appearance in New York City. Good morning to Tom King, Good morning John. Got through the trafficking time and stopped on how bad is it in Manhattan. It's you know, I actually think last year was worse, but it is, it is worse than normal. I would say, it's like John John Tucker with us as well, John

coming from New Jersey. I mean, people literally plan what an hour ahead account that the you know, they're doing construction on the helix. The helix as well, John. The helix is a it's like the Eiffel Tower. It's sort of an active metal constructing. Something tells me you're not being serious as oh no, we were not. Just Jane Folly with us with Robbo Bank, Jane, I want to know what Robbo Bank economists see in terms of economic growth,

whether the United States or Europe. There seems to me to be an inordinate mystery about what economic growth is going to be. Well. I think certainly there has been well last year, some good news, better than expected news. But I think with respect to looking in the future, the uncertainty stems from the trade data and the trade wars. And I think if we look at what surveys are saying, So for instance, this morning we had confidence survey from

the Eurozone disappointing. There can be a bit of a mismatch between what some of the data is doing, which is okay, which in many cases is pretty firm with the confidence numbers. And the confidence numbers, there are calls looking forward, they are trying to to work through the impact of trade wars, and yet there hasn't come to fruition too much in the economic data. However, we also know that in the economic data there's probably been some

front loading. Certainly that's going to be the case in trade data. If we look at China, for instance, we've had better August IP better August retail sales, possibly for front loading. But our concern is as we go forward, we will begin to see that these costs of the trade wards. Well, let's go through the pairs. What's your yen call right now? Out one year, we've seen some

big figure calls for weaker yen. Do you agree? Yes? Now, this is we We do agree, and this is largely because we are still of the view that the dollar can climb further. The dollar with the interst rate story, with a growth story have been good in the US still seems to be sucking in capital outflows from emerging markets. Now, although emerging markets have been firm in recent weeks, we don't think that that story is over, and that is

because of again the China story. We think the China story is only really beginning and we will see at worst data. There's already quite a lot of bad data from China if you look, if you just scratch below the surface. So we do think that the dollar will

remain firm. So Jane, help we understand something, because there's a lot of listeners out there that are looking to pivot, and what is involved with that pivot is increasing international exposure, moving away from the United States, taking down your risk there just a little bit an increasing exposure or elsewhere. Do you suggest people do that through EM or through

Europe right now? No, we're still very cautious on EM And again this is because we don't think that we've seen or we think perhaps if US has been lolled into a false sense of security with respect to some other data that I've just mentioned for the Chinese August data, we do think that this is going to come through.

In fact, you know, it's really quite interesting. You know, there are stories right now that there have been China has been unofficially restricting imports, commodities, imports from places like Australia, and this is there's slowing down the custos approvals because demand for raw materials and industrial products has taken a hit in China, so all of this is likely to come through. This will be bad news for e MUM and probably good news for the dollar given the intrastruct

differential it continues to support the dollar. Jane Foley always great to get your insight following a federal reserved decision. Jane Foley, the rubber backhead of Effects Strategy. John, I know you were. You were reading your Horse Walpole seventeen sixty one, where he spoke about Lame Duck at the London Stock Exchange. And then John migrates over to January eighteen sixty three in the heart of the Civil War, where in the Congressional Globe they talk about lame Duck's

Libby cantrol of Pimcoe study this very very cleful. Maybe did the same thing. I'm sure Lame Duck. I mean, there it is, and it could be upon us in November. What is the import of that to our listeners this time around? I think the most relevant issue that may be addressed in the Lame Duck is um is potentially a consideration of NAFTA or HAFTA. Uh, given that it doesn't look like the Canada's gonna be able to come

to the deal. UM. So just from a from a procedural perspective, UM, A deal needs to be finalized by in the next few days in order for it to be considered by before the end of this of this Congress. Um. And so there is a Mexican bilateral deal without Canada. I think that's gonna be the big issue in front of in front of Congress. Let's rip up the script and we we We saw this literally in the last

forty eight hours. I mean, the President wouldn't even speak with Mr Trudeau of Canada at the at the festivities in New York. We've reached a new level of seriousness in this neft to debate. Absolutely. I mean I I've I thought that the market has been a little bit sanguine about, um, the sort of idea that they could come to a resolution so quickly. I mean, these are these big media issues between Canada and the US, things that have been relevant when we were negotiating TPP with them,

Dairy subsidies, dispute resolution, auto tariffs. Um. These are not things that can be I don't think reconciled in a matter of days. And I think that's what you're seeing right now. Um. So, I think the big big question is here is will members of Congress actually ratified by

bilateral with Mexico? You know, I'm skeptical, are they? When we had the Ford President and chief executive Officer Mr Hackett at our Bloomberg Forum yesterday and I'm not sure if it came up, but X percent of any given automobile, like an F one pickup truck has a Mexican or windsor Ontario component to it. Do they understand that? In your world living? Um? Yeah, So, I mean, obviously the supply chain is incredibly integrated with especially with Mexico, but

also with Canada. And I think that's why, um, folks in Congress have been so concerned about both NAFTA potential naft to withdraw and the auto tariffs. UM. Just given how sort of integrated we are with with especially our our neighbors to the north and the south, I think they do understand it. Um. But obviously this is politics ruling economics right now. Well, let's go back to the lame duck theme then as well. You know, let's assume

we get a Democrat House. And you know, David Wasserman was writing up yesterday in the Cook Political Report and there's a huge doubt of us. I get the uncertainty, folks, and we heard that from you earlier. But nevertheless, it does it just stall through the lame duck or there's just a few chosen pieces of legislation that maybe get addressed within the uproar. Yeah, And I think it's like I think it's all going to be predicated on on

the outcome of the election. I think if you see a big Democratic sweep, I mean, of course, Democrats aren't going to be very um willing to go along with anything in a lame duck session if they are looking at much bigger majorities in the normal congressional session. With that said, I think Republicans will have a new urgency to get things done, including potentially this bilateral with Mexico and potentially a confirmation of of Kabanov depending on on

how that goes. Libby. If we can learn anything from politics over the last couple of years, it's to make sure we question the consensus before the vote actually takes place. There seems to be an overwhelming consensus that the House swings towards the Democrats. Now, I still listen to to the to the message coming from the Democrats and struggle to really understand what it is. Um, what is the

message the electorate that comes from the Democrats. Well, I think that the prevailing message here is and even though they may not want it to be, but I think it's an anti Trump message, right, this is uh. I think that they are running on interestingly on sort of providing a check in balance to to the executive branch. And that's been a um, something that they've all emphasized. Um. So I think that has been a major theme. Now.

They would say that they're running on infrastructure, they're running on healthcare, um. But but certainly providing a check to the executive branch is either implicitly or explicitly part of their part of their message. Let me thank you so much. Let me control where this here really is the day's wearing on towards the election. Really, I thought, really in the last hours a whole new tone of the polar

analysis and the study as well. Very pleased to say that dropping bot a studio is paid a chatwaw Miszoo International head of rate strategy here in London, paid a greater catch up with you. Let's pick up with that economic data here in Europe and upside surprise on inflation. These sentiment numbers don't look great though, and I'm trying to reconcile what's going on in Europe because I'm getting

a lot of conflicting signals. What do you see? We've got the classic issue for the euro areas that we're getting to trouble if inflation surprises to the upside, particularly if it gets above the e CBS target, which it currently is, has been for a couple of months and is likely to continue to be the case because then it's their single mandate. Um they're likely to be looking airing towards title monetary policy then they've previously been signaling.

And that's whilst the growth backdrops not looking so great. You know, it's decelerating somewhat. It's it's certainly not looking looking dangerous to the downside, but it's not that strong. Can you reconcile data dependence with forward guidance? The reason I asked this is because we do have an upside surprise on inflation in Germany, regardless of what happens with growth and inflation. President Dars tied the hands to the whole Government Council until the back end of next year

on rates. So can they truly be dated dependent when the whole Governing Council essentially has their hands tied on rates for potentially eighteen months. Yeah, so I would think that there is some risk that we start to see some evidence that the Governing Council may be frayed somewhat about that level of commitment, particularly when they're saying that rates can't go up until the end of summer. Perhaps the debate about the real timing of that comes back

onto the table. If that just means a rate hikers earlier September nineteen, then possibly they need to be hiking rates in larger steps. To to Sutain, I don't mean to interrupt what you just said. Peter's absolutely critical. John, this is a huge deal. This measured discipline we're on versus what we used to do in FED, in FED movement. It's a big change. Peter. Yeah, Look, this is uh,

this is a new regime. But I think what what we're currently going through is a re pricing of European rate expectations quite rightly, and I think that's going to be exacerbated as the market comes to consider who the next DCP president. Maybe if they are just a more neutral outlook than than Jog and also the chief economist Peter Pratt have had, then they could well be looking at a significantly tighter path of monetary policy for late next year. It depending on how long the European cycle

runs for I mean, we've got a problem. Let's just assume that the U S economists are right and we might get a downturn in the United States. Where does that leave Europe? How long is the cycle? How much runway does the ECB actually have to try and get rates back above zero again. ECB we think has gotten until two thousand and twenty one to get rates up. Is that enough time. It's enough time to probably get them up to into positive About half a percent would

be the highest we're going to. We're going to have to fifty basis points in Europe to play with in the next economic downturn. That's your base case. Oh no, we think I could go negative again. It's been extremely successful now that the banks have understood have learned how to deal with it. So I'm thinking that there's there's ninety basis points of tightening at most ninety basis points of easy. Again, but let's think about what happens to liquidity in the Euro Area. It has to be more

money printing. I think that's that's the less palatable outcome here. That then that possibly the ECB needs to be putting rates up quick more quickly so that they don't have to do as much QUEI and balance sheet expansion of they have done in this cycle. They've got a big problem, Peter. Well, we call it a liquidity trap. We think that's that's a fair description of the of the problem that the

Euro Area has. Um. It's likely to be exacerbated once we get some positive views on the risk free assets, then the curcy appreciation story really accelerates. Peter. One of the themes that we've had is this idea of dullarization. It's a new word for something timeless, which is just US dollars floating around the world. How does that plate ender where we go with rates next year? Well, yes,

I buy the concept. Um the FEDS tightening is effectively meaning that if you look at a monitory ever like the euro um they're they're getting easier financial conditions as a result of the Fed's tightening UM. So it means that where the FED leads, other central banks are likely to have to follow UM. So with the FED creating if they continue to generate expectations that the dollar can go higher, that FED funds can go higher, then it

will also impact the pricing of European rate expectations. But John Ferrell, with your trip to London, with your entourage and with your acclaim, with your many media properties, what have you learned about dollarization in the foreign exchange capital of the world. It's a big, big question, an increasingly I think that debate is intensifying. Do not your media properties, not my media properties. We can talk about that offline

if you like. But it's a debate that's intensifying, Peter, And it's a debate sort of around what happens, what's the reaction function the bias of investors towards specific assets during adverse scenarios. Now, typically that would be by the dollar. Typically it would be go to where the liquidity is by treasuries. Um does that change in the next economic downturn, Because there's a real conversation emerging about that well, I think firstly, with the level of dollar strength with gost

already we're on the cusp. We've seen some termoilly in e M. So if we get another bout of dollar strength, I think that it could it could automatically cap the dollar to a degree because it will mean that broader financial conditions actually get tighter, and it could slow down the FEDS ease and put possibly put them on pause. But I think also because President Trump is doing some interesting measures, some controversial measures, we could have more efforts

from European policymakers to gain some monetary independence. Um. You know, think about it. You travel around various countries in Europe, you're actually typically paying for your expenses through American financial systems. Very true, swift all of these systems in fact swift going through Europe as well. These are big, big issues, Peter, and they're big big issues connected to economic sanctions as well. Be a chat well, Missue, International head of European Rights Strotagists.

Great to catch up with you. Thank you. If you're interested in rent or buy, or housing or real estate. This is the interview of the day. Every economist worth their salt on wall Street claims fame with a certain focused, narrow niche when they start out. Nobody did it on a housing like Michelle Meyer of Bank of America. Mary Lynch now running all of their US economics so long ago, far away. You just one day said I'm going to

own a housing, and you nailed it. You nailed the ups and downs of our housing in your new research note is really abrupt. This is as good as it gets. Why is this the peak? I think it's the peak for existing home sales, which was important. Distinction is not necessarily the pink for housing starts, single family housing starts.

The reason I think existing home sales have peaked is that affordability has been coming down, and there is a pretty tight correlation in the growth rate of affordability with that and the existing factors their house price and also the mortgage rate, which is more important. Precisely, and even though affordability is still high relative to historical standards, it's that it's been shifting down and it should continue to shift down if we think rates are heading up, which

seems the most likely scenario. The distinction is existing homes exist in new homes are only for the rich because contractors construction building land dynamics mean only big fancy houses with granite marble and you know, you know, a grill out back the price of a normal kitchen. They're the only ones getting built. Is that stereotype true? Well, that was true in the early stage. Is the recovery, that's where developers focus to the expensive properties, the ones where

people can get financing, et cetera. But now what you're seeing is a move down towards entry level properties to more affordable type units. And frankly, that's where they should be building. That's where we need more supply, and that's where there's opportunities. So I think what builders are doing, and the reason I think new home sales have further upside is builders are being selective. They're adding homes to areas where there's tight inventory and there is incremental demand.

Can you give us some names of cities that are like that, where there's tight inventory, where there's a healthy housing economy. I assume New York sit out in that last. Yeah, so cities is going to be a problem. Urban areas are more saturated. That's where a lot of development came in multi family. The rent story was very strong there. It's more in the surrounding areas of some of these big cities. I think still the West Coast is where

you have a pretty healthy economy. The tech industry is helping to support so you are seeing a lot of focus in in in in some of those markets. Part of the matter we've you think of Doug Duncan at Fannie May and others that are specialists in housing economics

is about income growth. That German Paul yesterday noted this mystery over wage growth and a lot of articles recently on the benefit contribution to wages other than the elite, the upper x percent that are looking at six thousand square feet, three wood burning fireplaces and all that, where's

the wage growth to drive this forward? So wage growth has been slow, which is a challenge of course, and UM that can further create some challenges are affordability, because if home prices are rising at six seven percent nationally like we saw last year, mortgage rates are up, but wages are only increasing two and a half to three percent, you start to create some challenges in terms of the

ability to access housing. UM. But nonetheless you have to consider, uh, the alternative rents have increased as well, so the end of day. You need a place to live. So it's comes to being a choice. Are we going to buy? We in a and how do we balance our budget together? Michel Meyer with this Bank of America, Mary Lynch, And we're gonna focus here. We'll do a little bit of fed chat here in a bit, but right now on our real expertise of housing as well, render by go

to it. Which is it? Tell me New York City, which is the weirdest market. New York City is a is an allier means basically Europe right well, New York City has support from foreign investors UM people by properties simply for investment purposes. UM in New York City is softening. That is very clear in the statistics that are have been coming off of the past year, both in terms of rent and in terms of home prices. Given the

amount or Memphis. Yeah, so if you look more broadly and you think rent versus own, UM, the equation has started to shift in the towards towards renting again, given that home prices have increased pretty notably and mortgage rates are now rising as well. UM rents picked up post crisis. But UM, outside of the big cities, it's been fairly modest games if you look at, for example, the owner's equivalent rent series within the c p I, if you take out some of those big metro areas, it's still

fairly modest. So um, I think if you're just looking at a relative price story in outside the big cities, yeah, rent is still pretty attractive. Le's kind of the FED yesterday, and what I noticed that I've mentioned it's like eight times this morning, and we're efforting Michael McKee will see if we can get him in here, just off the

airplane from Washington. But Craig Tourists had a terrific question of the chairman on dynamics, and the McKee was rude and asked about the dots, and then mineam and Apple Obama. The New York Times nailed it off of those two questions on dynamics as well, and the dynamics were to me, it was almost a chairman walking away from the PhDs at the FED and saying we're slaves to data dependency. Is that that your interpretation? Yeah? I think increasingly he's

saying he does not have stars in his eyes. He is not focused as much on this idea. The Gospel of Eastern Harris as we know it um so to me, the messages look, we like models to provide a framework trying to understand where our star is a useful exercise, but is not the only way of determining monetary policy. And if we tie ourselves too much to our forecast, to our dots, to these longer equilibrium models, we can end up getting it wrong. So let's look at incoming data.

Let's look at how financial conditions are going. The message to me from POWs We're going to keep plugging along, provide the data lets us because we don't know what the end goal is. But now with a short term FED funds target rate adjusted for inflation that zero or even slightly positive was yesterday, the day we got back to normal where these rate increases have actual impact on

the economy. As President Trump would suggest, what's possible if you believe the Lubbuck will Illiam short term our star model. And there, well that's you know, that's in theory where we are. But Kevin's online to Kevin Warsh is online to say, and Michelle, what are you talking about? Kevin Warsh, the former governor, critical of our stories, are sure you know look it's are are we at the point where monetary policy is going to start to matter for financial

conditions and bleed into the broader economy. Maybe so far it hasn't. And and I think that there's still a question as to the mechanism for which the fet is is impacting the economy. So we'll see. And I think that I think Powell isn't sure either, which is why he's emphasizing look at the data flow, look at financial conditions. We're going to calibrate as we go within this is

to look back. And I had this in the TV script this morning that Economic Club of New York speech by Vice Chairman Stanley Fisher accommodative, where we're clearly removed ourselves looking at two year yield from that you no clue or neutrality is Chairman Powell as no clue or neutrality is then why do we worry? Why do we attempt a mathematical exercise involving what for plug ins? So I think the idea is that we're supposed to understand

the relationship between growth, inflation and rates. That goes back to the tailor role, goes back to all of these variety of different models. Um do we it's not obvious, but we can look at historical relationships and we have some basis for understanding. So the idea is that history matters, those relationships are somewhat relevant. Let's look at them and determine what it means for today. Understanding that we have

to be able to take some error around that. Pim from Midtown emails in and says Michelle great comments on render by how much further will home prices go down in New York City? Um? You know that is we're not forecasting specifically by by cities, so excuse me by zip code? How about voting district? Um? You know? To me, you just look at look at the imbalance. There's so

much supply coming in in New York City. Um, to me, it's gonna be a function of what happens to the broader business cycle if every session comes in the next few years. Given the excesses in the city in terms of supply, I think we're vulnerable for decline. Now, welcome online to pim Fox, who's just joined us here. She was brilliant on New York is I was south, yes,

indeed south or south or south there? Interesting. I just gotta say that even though we talk about the actual transaction value of a lot of properties, I don't see it getting less expensive. I see it getting more expensive every time I hear there's some every homeowner, So I mean I appreciate it. And it's also you know, one to transaction. You know they are limited, right because a limited supply of bias. Something to talk about the next door.

Pim Fox with his studio Michelle Meyer, Bank of America, Merrill Lynch, thank you so much. A clinic on housing and now at Bloomberg Surveillance worldwide and coast to coast with fourteen out of twelve cable news networks tuned into what will occur here at ten am is most important issues on Judge Kavanaugh, and we will attempt at Bloomberg

Surveillance to commit perspective. We do that with Bob Moon and Bob it goes really back within your research to October fourteenth when Anita Hill had to pass a lie detector test, and I think that picks up your wonderful perspective you've put together. Yeah, you know, Tom Shakespeare said what has passed his prologue? So with the Senate Judiciary Committee set to gabble to order. It's high drama hearing into the sexual misconduct allegations against Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh.

It is informative to look back twenty seven years to October. That's when President George H. W. Bush's Supreme Court nominee Clarence Thomas was called back in his confirmation process to face the sexual misconduct allegations of Anita Hill, his former assistant. The panel's chairman at the time was Democrat Joe Biden of Delaware. This is not a referendum on whether or not whether or not sexual harassment is a grave offense. I said from the beginning. This is about whether or

not sexual harassment occurred. Now we're gonna hear more. Witnesses are gonna come in and cooborate your position and hers. We'll find out whether there's telling the truth or not as best as we are capable of doing, just like you, as a judge are when you look them in the eye and make a judgment. So that I think this whole affair is sink. I think it's sick to Utah Republican or In Hatch was one of Thomas's defenders in those hearings, just as he's defending Brett Kavanaugh as a

member of the same Senate panel today. Just as the Clarence Thomas hearing was then, today's hearing is being called a watershed moment. A record two hundred fifty seven women are running for the House and Senate in the twenty eighteen midterm elections. In nineteen ninety two, twenty eight women were elected to the House of Representatives and four to the Senate, among them Democrat Patty Murray, the state of

Washington's first female U S Senator. I am a United States Senator today because of the way Anita Hill was treated in nineteen They called Anita Hill a liar. They said she was coached by special interest groups. They looked for ways to blame her, impugne her, and attack her. They pressed the young professor for explicit details of the harassment she said she had faced on the job. My working relationship became even more strained when Judge Thomas began

to use work situations to discuss sex. On these occasions, he would call me into his office for reports on education issues and projects, or he might suggest that, because of the time pressures of his schedule, we go to lunch to a government cafeteria. After a brief discussion of work, he would turn the conversation to a discussion of sexual matters. His conversations were very vivid. Because I was extremely uncomfortable talking about sex with him at all, and particularly in

such a graphic way. I told him that I did not want to talk about these subjects. What happened after Hill's opening statement explains why this time Republicans on the Judiciary Committee have named an outside council who they can choose to have question Dr Christine Bozzy Ford. Hill was a lone woman facing a panel of fourteen skeptical men, among them Pennsylvania Republican Arlen Specter. A mere allegation, Senator, I would suggest to you that for me, these are

more than mere allegations. These are the truth to me. These comments are the truth to me. I'm not I'm not questioning your statement when I used the word allegation. I know about soctual harassment and discrimination against women, and I think I have some sensitivity on it. How reliable is your testimony in October of on events that occurred

eight ten years ago? How sure can you expect this committee to be on the accuracy of your statements, and it wasn't just Republicans who raised the eyebrows and even the ire of many women watching the hearings. She could be living in a fantasy world. I don't know. We're just trying to get to the bottom of all of these facts. Howell Heflin was a Democrat from Alabama, and trying to determine whether you are telling falsehoods or not. I've got to determine what your motivation might be. Are

you a scorned woman? Do you have a militant attitude relative to the area of civil rights? No, I don't have a militant attitude. Do you have a modern complex? No? I don't. Well do you see that coming out of this that you can be a hero in the civil rights movement? I do not have that kind of complex. I don't like all of the attention that I'm getting. I don't. I would not even if I liked the attention. I would not lie to get attention. Thomas adamantly insisted

the accusations were not true. I've never been accused of sex harassment, and anybody who knows me knows I am adamantly opposed to that, adamant and yet I sit here accused, and I'll never be able to get my name back. I know it. The day I received the phone call on Saturday night, last Saturday night about and told that this was going to be in the press. I had. I died the person you knew, whether you voted for

me or against me. He choked back tears as he complained that he, his family, his friends, and the country had been irreparably harmed. In my views, that that is an injustice. And if by going through this, another nominee in the future or another American won't have to go through it, then so be it. In the end, Republicans on the panel delivered impassioned defenses of the Supreme Court

nominee Wyoming's Allan Simpson confronting Hill directly. Maybe maybe it seems to me it didn't really intend to kill him, but you might have. And that's pretty heavy. I don't care if you're a man or a woman. Kind of a singular singular torpedo blow below the waterline and he sinks. Within five days, Thomas was confirmed by a narrow cinemajority of fifty two to forty eight. Today, Washington Democrat Patty Murray is warning Republicans against a rush to confirm Brett Kavanaugh.

Women are watching. We are not going to allow that to happen again. If Republicans attack Dr Ford and this turns into anything like what we saw back in women across the country are going to rise up, make their voices heard, and Republicans will pay a very huge price tom him. A lot of people will be watching in just a few minutes. Just extraordinary. And you go back to Senator Heflin there, who was before Jeff Sessions for Alabama, silver star guy, huge marine track record in World War Two.

And what I went to Bob, within your wonderful history there is Hefflin was born in and here we are almost a hundred years ahead of that. The generational shifts here have been cultural and generational have been extraordinary. Yeah, and you have to consider that this was just twenty seven years ago. That's not all that long ago, really, And also is it worth noting that the process has now become a political process, not a legal or judicial process.

I think it all began with with that hearing where where it it turned political and has become increasingly political with each confirmation. What was your insight from digging up all of this audio. I mean you go back and folks, for for those of us in the Bloomberg newsroom, Uh, Bob Moon sits in a coveted cubicle with acres of video and in audio reels. What was it like to go through it all? What? What was your take on going through? Overwhelming? Take? Is it? How much times changed

just in that twenty seven years. I mean a lot of this I don't think would fly today that that was going on back then, particularly with the me too movement. Now, Bob Moon, thank you so much, just extraordinary. Will be sure to get that out on Bloomberg Digital. Thanks for listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast. Subscribe and listen to interviews on Apple Podcasts, SoundCloud, or whichever podcast platform you prefer. I'm on Twitter at Tom Keane before the podcast. You

can always catch us worldwide. I'm Bloomberg Radio