Surveillance: Stimulus Talks With Kudlow - podcast episode cover

Surveillance: Stimulus Talks With Kudlow

Oct 23, 202037 min
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Episode description

Lawrence Kudlow, National Economic Council Director, doesn't know if a stimulus bill can be passed before the election. Afsaneh Beschloss, RockCreek Group CEO, says investments in renewable energy have been moving faster than those in oil and gas during the pandemic. Lale Topcuoglu, JOHCM Senior Fund Manager, says the U.S. will likely reach a stimulus agreement no matter which party wins the election, but the size of the package will be dependent on the victor. Pat Foye, MTA Chairman & CEO, says the MTA will be forced to make drastic draconian service cuts if they do not receive stimulus funding soon.

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Transcript

Speaker 1

Welcome to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast and I'm Tom Keene Jay Lee. We bring you insight from the best in economics, finance, investment, and international relations. Find Bloomberg Surveillance on Apple Podcasts, SoundCloud, Bloomberg dot com, and of course on the Bloomberg, on Bloomberg Television and on radio on police to say, it's an Ay cud Low National Economic Council Director, Larry. I

appreciate your time this morning, sir, so thank you. Let's start with that stimulus conversation, the latest update, please, Larry, where are we well? The ball is not moving much right now. I mean, the two sides are still talking and the committee chairs in the Senate and House, the relevant committees, they're talking on a lot of these issues appropriations, small business, banking and so forth and so on. So

there's a that's a good thing. On the other hand, there's still policy issues that divide the two times the two teams. UM President mentioned some of them last night. Uh, he doesn't want to bail out poorly run states and local governments and their pension funds and so forth, So that's an issue. There are other policy issues that remain unresolved. So it's very difficult. The clock is taking, as you know,

be very difficult. Um, even if you had a deal the next few days, you've got to go through the committee print and then you've got to have votes in the House and the Senate. So it's not gonna be easy. I don't want to predict anything. I'm just saying, Uh, there's more agreement than there was a while back. There are still policy disagreements, UM, some numerical disagreements. So we'll

see it's still up for grabs. Well, let's stop with numerical then we get to substance, Larry, what numerical disagreement is the right now? Well, I think that in specific areas. I mean, I'm not going to get involved in negotiating Jonathan this morning, but in specific areas there are numerical issues. Now. President Trump, for example, has said, for let's say the checks, the mailed out checks for economic assistance. Uh, he's willing

to bid higher on that. He has no problem. Uh, he's willing to go with P p P for these small businesses, Uh, no problem. He's willing to help the airlines, no problem on that score. He's always been willing to do these things. He's willing to help the schools as they of course transition and renovate, to make school openings UH safe and you know, cover the health guidelines. He's willing to do that. He's not willing, though, to pour lots of money into various healthcare schemes that might benefit

folks who are not US citizens. He has a big problem with that. I just mentioned some of the state and local issues and the pension issue, and there are other issues at stake. UM. One thing that's interesting that's come up UM in the in the Munition Secretary munition proposal called the Republican Proposal. We are very much we're keen on on shoring for all kinds of supply chains,

including pharmaceuticals and related equipment. That's very dar and important, and we would like to reward companies that either come to the US for the first time or moved back from China or wherever. So we proposed investment tax credits. Apparently the other side doesn't like that. We've also proposed deductions for restaurant meals and other forms of hospitality and entertainment. Apparently the numbers there are sticking points, so I can't

go through the entire list. I'm just gonna say, still issues. I think many people feel like we're just going around in circles at the moment, Larryous, we drift towards the election. One question that's being asked by by many, in fact, is whether both sides are negotiating and good faith. Now, of course you're not gonna say that about yourself, but I do want to do you think the other side is nicko shanning and good faith? Do you think speak

Speaker Pelosi is negoshanning and good faithful? Or is this just political postering with Eleven Diace to go, Well, look, I'm not a political analyst. Uh. I don't do personal stuff. I can't get into everybody's said. I'm just gonna assume that we've been at this since July or mid July, that there is good faith at this point. I'm not even sure what that means. Look, there's very hard headed, experienced professional people engaged in the discussions. There are veterans,

all right. Speaker Pelosi is a veteran. UH. Mr Mnusian is a terrific money man. He knows the budget story up and down, including taxes. UH. Senator McConnell is a very crafty, wiley veteran in these games. So they are engaged, they are talking, Jonathan, and I will ascribe how about this, I will ascribe good faith to all sides. I'm not going to pick away on that. Let just see that

the President's done that for you. Sure. Well, Look the President said yesterday evening Nancy Pelosi doesn't want to approve anythink because she thinks it will help her politically. Not too well. I'll leave that to the president. That's his view. That's his view, and I don't have a I don't have I'm a policy guy, Jonathan, I don't have a view on that. I appreciate that. All I all I want to say is this. We are in a very very strong recovery. The v shape recovery is coming on

very strong. We had phenomenal numbers yesterday on following on employment clients and rising existing home sales um. But there are areas of this economy that could benefit from assistance. I acknowledge that I don't think the recovery depends on assistance, but the p PP lending for small businesses would be very helpful. UH. President Trump took the lead awhile back on providing UH federal unemployment assistance by an executive order

with a plus am the states. It would be very helpful if Congress appropriated that in some form a way. There's unspent funds all over the place from last Springs Bill. Why not repurpose that and legislated put it in you know, codified. It's not forever. It might be three months or six months. That could help Americans. We need the airlines. That could help the economy, put people back to work, get kids

back to school. So I just, you know, sometimes thinks instead of these two thousand page bills with gargan numbers, why not just have you know, separate votes on specific items. That's the way appropriations used to be many decades. I have to have to say, you sound a lot more like a Senate Republican than you do a member of this administration, because that sounds like the position of Leader McConnell when you say the V shaped economy is coming

on very strong. If I'm a Senate Republican right now, I'm wondering, Okay, if marries right, why do we need a two trillion dollar package? The V shaped recovery is coming along very strong? Why do we well, let me say. I have many many friends amongst center Republicans, and I speak at their breakfast at lunches all the time. But I am uh the NYC director for President Trump, who has given me a great opportunity, uh, and I'm doing my best to help him out on all these issues.

So don't don't suggest that I'm on one side for another. By the way, well, Larry, you give me just the president's position, and at the moment, there is no deal life between the president's position. In mind, I support him entirely. I'm giving you his thoughts on why the numbers don't add up and why these policies don't yet work. That's the best I can do. I'm not going to predict an outcomes, Ouathan, Yes, maybe no, maybe. I mean, I'm

not here to do that. I just give you a lay of the land, and I appreciate you doing that. Did lead the McConnell's how the White House not to accept a deal, I I am not aware of that. I am not aware of that, because reportedly he told colleagues that he had told the White House to exactly that,

not to accept the deal. The president seems to according to Chief of Staff Mark Meadows that he can lean on Senate Republicans, and from where I'm sitting and where others are as well, it doesn't seem to be any evidence of that, Larry, Why the confidence that you can lean on Senate Republicans to possibile that big What I've heard from the President we are a long meeting Wednesday.

What I've heard from Chief Meadows and what I've heard from Secretary Minution is that Leader McConnell and the GOP conference in this Senate would be willing to support a bill as long as it is a genuinely by partisan bill and that their asks are included. For example, we haven't talked about liability insurance. That is a controversial matter with the House team, but it's an important key ask for the Senate Republicans. If there's a genuinely bipartisan bill.

Leader McConnell has said, uh, and I've heard it from the President Mark Meadows notion, Um, they go along with it. So I'll just leave it there. I can't speak for once, I can't speak for Mr McConnell, but I'm just saying that's what i've heard onlinability protection. Have you made any progress whatsoever in the last month with House Democrats. Jonathan, I'm not going to get involved in that sort of thing. You know. I can't do that. I'm not gonna again.

We not, Larry. I mean, you've you've given me enough information so far on how the talks are going. I'm just trying to work out whether you've made any progress on that particular topic. And it seems to be a huge sticking point for negotiations. Because you're such a great journalist and I'd love to give you as much information as possible, but I cannot include you in the negotiations. Larry, what's the plan? B Once you walk away, You've seen

this a million times. At some point you realize nothing gets done. Well, look, we have an election in what eleven days? Yeah, the clock is ticking. The clock is ticking. I mean, just mechanically, mechanically, it takes a while. You've got to vote in both houses. You might have to have a conference vote. Now, that could be done fast, but you know, we take it there too. Just writing up the legislative print of a two thousand plus page bill takes time. And then you have the issue of

the operational executions. All right, Uh, I don't know that that could be done, mailing checks, re engaging the lending programs for small businesses. Um, we would do the best we can. Secretary Munition did a heck of a job last spring, but I don't know between now and the election, So those are still dangling in the air. Well, Larry, if you can't get it done now, and this is my final question, you've given us so much time this morning, and I appreciate that, thank you. It doesn't look like

you've made a lot of progress on state aid. It doesn't look like you've made a lot of progression on liability protections. You can't confirm or tonight that right now. If you can't get us done in the next eleven days, why would you be able to get this done before January. Well, we're gonna take this a day at a time. The election results well undoubtedly bear heavilyer on this. And remember, of course, the Congress is still in session. There's a

so called lane duck session that will come up. You've got a judicial vote coming I believe next week. With respect him, Miss Barrett, highly qualified, terrific candidate for the Supreme Court. So it's tricky business, and the clock is ticking, so we will see. I don't want to make any predictions. What I do know is this, Jonathan, the economy is running faster and hotter than almost any but he thought possible.

And as President Trump said last night with great clarity, he is not going to allow tax hikes or regulatory hikes. He's for lowering taxes and regulation. He completely opposes a government takeover of healthcare. He completely opposes an end to oil and natural gas, which would be devastating for the economy. You've got economists, distinguished economists at the Hoover Institute, Stanford, who say those policy would lose ten percent of g

d P five million jobs. Middle class families with the dollars their whole increase under Trump, which was a record increase. That's what the president opposes. He doesn't see a dark winner. He's he's an optimistic recovery and prosperity. Uh. The other team looks to me like very pessimism and a stagnation, uh decline scenario. Those came out in the debate last night, and I think that it's gonna bear heavily on November

as results. Larry, if I was leading McConnell right now, here and you talk about the hot economy, I'd be asking why on earth do we need a two trillion dollar package. Larry, It's great to catch up with you as always, and I appreciate your time this morning and hopefully we can catch up on payrolls Friday after the election. Sir Larry Catlo, National Economic Council Director, A special thanks,

of course, also to Bloomberg Radio listeners as well. So if you have any interest in hydrocarbons, any interest in the future of this great debate, not out to November, not out of the inauguration, but how about ten years, we have the correct guest for good conversation. We rip up the script with left Sony best Laws of course Wall Street we contributor and truly one of the world's experts on natural guests dynamics as well. SONA thank you so much for joining us. What is the political economics

of the less oil? These two candidates were talking about? What is your timeline to What is really interesting is that the candidates are talking about it, but the markets are taking care of it themselves. You had the BPCO on recently, and also the way the market is going right now and the way people are behaving. Every utility company is increasing the share of it's renewable energy within its own energy um energy use. In the US, if you go to Texas, the largest growth sector in energy

in Texas is in fact renewable energy, solar energy. You go into the Middle East, the largest investments that are going on in the Middle East in Saudi in u A, in solar. So the point that is really interesting that was missed last night was the fact that people are already investing in solar or inac in Windsor. I was in the Washington News Beer of Bloomberg with Spencer Abraham long ago and far away our Secretary of Energy for Bush the Younger, the day we discovered that America really

doesn't have a national oil policy. Do we need one? You know, there there was a time when we needed an oil policy and energy policy when energy was such a huge part of the economy. Remember when we started, you know, when we actually did have an energy policy at one point, or we what we call energy policy, was when energy was more like fifteen percent of the economy,

maybe ten percent. Today, the size of the energy sector, which is really the mainly the oil and gas sector in the US, is close to three, and so energy, while being very important, is not where it was compared to health sector, compared to technology, compared to the other

sectors that have been growing. So it's not that we don't need energy to lubricate and to use our in our in our parts and in our manufacturing, but it is not exactly as important as it was at the period that you're talking about, and when I started working on energy in my career well after, let's talk about where you think we're going. Right now, we're producing about tamillion pounds of all a day in the United States.

What do you think the trajectory is of all of this actually is over the next five to ten years. I think, as Vice President Biden said, it is going to be a transition. It has been a very slow transition. When I started again working on this transition, it was almost like twenty years ago, UM natural gas was taking um a little bit more share from oil, but it

was pretty slow. As we've seen in the last two years, natural gas has taken a bigger share from coal and oil, and solar and wind are taking a bigger share from everything else. So the transition could could be a while. As you as we see the electric cars have been a little bit slower to come to market. Tesla obviously has been fabulous, and other cars are still having technical

problems when they come in. But if you look at the economy moving forward, I would think that whether it is ten years or fifteen years or twenty five years, there will be a transition that with faster and faster growth towards uneibles as the technology that is helping with batteries help us move in that direction much faster. It's fun. Has the pandemic accelerated that shift? You know, the pandemic

hasn't slowed it down the side. I think what is really interesting is that oil and gas got slowed down with the pandemic, right and generally the economy slowed down, which meant that you were using energy less. In fact, the President last night said that we have cleaned area, and the reason is because our economy is not a full capacity. Of course, air gets to be cleaner if you're not drive in as much and not using your factories.

But but renewable energy investments have been going pretty close to schedule, maybe delayed a little bit, but much faster than the oil and gas investments that were in the works before COVID. That's a lot of this begs the

question what we need the government to do here? If, as you say, that private companies are heading in this direction anyway, you know what the government could do is we had some we had a lot of support for cooling gas industry over the last twenty thirty years, and if some of that could also move more into the into the renewable energy, I think it would be really

really helpful. Also in terms of the government having clear policies on on regulation and making it easier to invest in infrastructure and in energy, particularly renewable energy, could make it easier. As you know, the regulation that has had been and the looked around solar energy has been very confusing. It has been on off, on, off, on off, and it has affected consumers. So having something that is clear and long term would help the industry. Let's end on

infrastructure more broadly. Four years ago, after the election, the Trump Trade, the so called Trump trade was all about infrastructure spending. Wasn't just about tax cuts, It's all about infrastructure spending. Then if started, it just did not happen. Why does it not happen in America? Why can't we

make it happen. You know, I think, Um, it's interesting because two thousand eight it did not happen either, Right, there was a moment where we could have put some of the money that came into the economy, um, into the doctor. As you said, it didn't happen during the last four years. I'm actually more optimistic Jonathan about the next four years. I think this is a time where

post COVID. COVID has had a lot of physical and psychological impact on people, but this might be the time where in fact, you have industry, you have the financial sector, and you have the government coming together to build infrastructure. And I think that some of the delays we could blame on on all kinds of things, but the biggest problems about infrastructure in our country is that, you know, sort of federal versus states issues and some of the

regulation that has delayed infrastructure. And that could be something that the Democrats come together with the Republicans and health resolves so that our roads and bridges do catch up with the Chinese. I mean, it is really interesting how in the last especially post COVID, how the Chinese have continued with their infrastructure but also continued investing in their new financial structure. We're still in a financial structure which

is the old mode. Whereas they're bringing in digital currency, they're bringing in um you know, clean energy, they're bringing in new infrastructure, they're being in new health policy. Is so I think it is time, if we want to be number one, to to bring all of those things together and to the forefront. It's interesting to me how much the rest of the world is waiting for the US to come out with some sort of fiscal support bill.

How this affects Europe, it affects emerging markets. How much does the recovery in the developing world in particular hinge on the US passing fiscal stimulus. Well, I mean, if we have something like a tweet trillion UH fiscal stimulus,

it will be large. It will impact other countries. But also what has happened over the last week or two in Washington with the World Bank IMF meetings, as you could see, was relatively i would say, hugely different than what tom Kin and I have experienced before with the i m F. We also have, in addition to the US stimulus, the IMF head and the chief economist of the I M S saying that countries should start borrowing

a lot more. That is the exact opposite of the austerity plants that you had for the last twenty thirty years by the I m F. So if you put that together with our stimulus, I think it could be a very interesting period of higher growth in the economies of across the clock plus interest rates and in fact not go into a negative zone. And we might be going faster into a period of inflation with the kind of death that is getting accumulated and will continue to

get accumulated. So we might have different problems on our hands very soon. I'm started very quickly here you are of Iran. Is President Biden's strategy with Iran the same as President Obama's? You know, I think that that countries are evolving. I'm not sure if his policy is the same. I think his policy is to engage just his life, like he said last night, with with the allies, so that the approach to Iran will be an approach that brings together all allies together and it's not just one

country versus another country. And if you do bring it run back into society, into the normal society and the normal economy. I think that region could be in a much better place than it is today after bachelors. Always fantastic to catch up with you, Thanks for your time of Rock Creek Group and Bloomberg Wall Street Week contributor joining us now on this market. A lot to Childood j H C m C a fund manager, A lot

of fantastic to catch up with you. As always, this credit market spread to tight treasury yehs a low, they been higher this week. Fixed income, it's been a huge trade through. Do you think it's gonna break anytime soon? Good morning? All Well, it's hard to tell whether it breaks or not, but you can't. I mean, this is a mistake. I think many people too. They're very short term oriented and if you think of running portfolios, they're they're like tankers you've hid, just shift them overnight. So

will the market break? You know? I think the market is getting expensive and I do think if you dissect the credit market, its fortunes are closely tied to whether economic growth happens and what kind of a stimulus package passes. So I think that's a possibility. Yes, Lolly, what's so important to me? And it's great to have you on with the Matthew conversation is in Japan, we are witnessing almost a lassitude where the dynamics have been sucked out

of the fixed income market for various reasons. Is that going to be the surprise a year and two years forward that we migrate from bond and fixed income dynamics to a much more static market. It's possible. But look, there are differences between the Japanese markets in the US markets. Um. The investor based is different, the indices are different, um. So they're absolutely notable differences. The key point is they've been fighting with low rate for an extended period of

time and a little to no inflation. Can that happen here? Sure? I mean I think Cathy hits Kathy Jones hit the right point, which is, you know, we're talking about rising ten year rates and blah blah blah. Look, people were talking about a four year and four percent ten year not that long ago, right for not thinking like maybe one percent, Max, I think it is entirely possible, it's

lower for longer. It is entirely, entirely possible. And what's amazingly, says as Cathy Jones stretch and he flapped, there was extraordinary, Thank you Tom, that it definitely was extraordinary, which brings me to credit spread slyly. One reason why I always love having you on is because you're very realistic about the fundamental picture and struggle with pairing it with the

unlimited or seemingly liquidity from central banks. How do you retain that bearish view in light of the fact the FED is backstopping this market and don't fight the Fed is the predominant feeling across the street. So it's actually interesting. I'll tell you how we're constructing, how we're thinking about it,

but this don't fight the Fed. I think it's very interesting because I think one of the possible mistakes the market is making for the future is now I think everybody now bigs in that the corporate bond purchasing is now in the tool kits, as you know, as J. Powell talks about. But there may be a nuance in this crisis versus the global financial crisis, which is this was a global pandemic and it's hit everybody at the

same time. It wasn't there was no bad actor. So I will warn the market that in the future when we have another crisis, which we will cycles still happen regardless of what other people say it is entirely possible that corporate bonds may not be in the tools. I just want to make sure I plant that feet in people's mind. The second piece is how do we construct the portfolios. Look, I think investment grade has gone really expensive,

well in duration investment grade. I think what you need to do is pick the companies that are actually on a path to de leverage. There are not a whole lot of them, and take duration risk on those. It's a bad credit picking, Hi, you we're still playing the liquidity, which is the refinancing theme. So buy the bonds that are callable in good quality companies. The rest of the high yield is challenging. And just because you guys talked about math and you knew I was going to talk

about statistics, let me walk you through one thing. High yield average index spread in the US is four hundred and ninety today. Okay, let's just assume to beat that index you have to back for companies that are in the five eight hundred basis points in spread range. That's only of the US high yield index, And out of that twenty per cent, nearly half half is energy, leisure, capital goods that are at the epic center of coronavirus related slowdown and stimmulus stainments. This is why you can't

disentangle high yield fundamentals from the economic recovery. So let's start with investment gride and then we got to high yield because you set a couple of things there. The companies with an investment grade on the path towards the leveraging. You said there weren't, manny, where'd you find them? They're not that many, but there are a few companies that have basically learned their lesson and they're gonna be leveraged.

I mean they are basically selling assets and they're making sure they are working down their leverage and either that we're basically when people were talking about that, there were you know, three four for and a half times levered pre chronicle virus crisis, where the market was a little bit criticizing. Okay, it's started the leverage now because the good times may not last. I think those companies are

really working towards working down that leverage now. There is a point that I think there are some there is a narrative in the market which I don't agree with, which is this golden age of bond investor, because now that people have put on the seat, they're gonna be leverage. Let me point this out. Large companies are not borrowing from banks. They're going to the bond market. The biggest difference between bank and the bond market is bank that is table at par with no penalty. You can't do

that with the bond market. So what are your I G or high yield? What the companies are banking on future IBADOG growth or asset sales to de leverage. Again, that is highly highly dependent on the economic growth, Lilly, our preferreds a legitimate yield equivalent or do they have too much of an equity component? I think preferred if you find you know, there are some fixed for life preferred that are very high coupon, and you know, I think as the company is through the pandemic, none of

these things are going to get cold. So at least until you get a better picture of the outlook, there are decent places to be yes, Lally, is there any trade to be had in the eleven days left before the U S Election? No? I mean it's it's these things are very hard. But the market is similar to the equity market. There is a general trade that's happening, which is stimulus induced. Right, whichever party wins, it's likely we're gonna have a stimulus. The question is how big

it's going to be. And you can see it the companies that may get the better from the stimulus. You can see the stocks and also on the bond market a little bit of a movement, but nothing does. It's not recommending. It's not the golden age of credit. Was I've got to ask, was that a little bit of shade a page Jim and Greg Peter's in the last couple of weeks trouble Hold on, Hold on a second, hold on, No, I'm not actually calling anybody out. I

have heard that narrative. I'm not sure they're one of them, so I can't really open. Okay, I'm just wondering if I should tee them up for a conversation at the nine o'clock in the next couple of weeks, so that I thank you as always seriously trying to start some what we've tried to do it on a Friday. This is really really important, is trying to understand that yes, we do economics, finance, investment, Yes we do politics, and we do it with fancy ties and suits and dresses.

As we talked to the bloomer elite of the world, and we've forgotten not that there's a whole bunch of other people out there helping us with that has been Patrick Foy. Pet Foy is with a small shop called the Metropolitan Metropolitan Transit Authority where he is chairman and CEO. And pet I want to go right down to the basics. So last time you were on, we talked about a bus driver moving people around Northern Central Park. How about Radigan Hendy Hartley Woods in Augustine doing what you guys

do every day, which is jumping on tracks of moving railroads. Yeah, those five tom those five Long Island Railroad employees on Wednesday at the Long Island Railroad East New York station, save the man's life mt A. People do that regularly. Uh. They were the right five men on the on the on the spot. They called the train dispatchers, stop the trains. They were flaggers, so they knew what they knew what to do, jumped down and brought the man up to

up the safety. It have been a terrible situation had they not been there, had they not been used their training and their brave ray and courage saved the man's life. Incredible public You are distracted by getting billions in aid from this natural disaster along with other cities nationwide. What is your message to the elites of Washington this morning on your need to get a check in the mail? But there are three reasons the MTA needs twelve billion dollars.

One is jobs, jobs, jobs, the second is social equity, and the third is environment. I described last time I was on the drastic cuts we may be forced to make in service of the fifth reduction on subways and busses, up the fifty percent on Long Island Railroad and Metro North and laying off eight to nine thousand colleagues our

preliminary estimates. If we were if our hand were forced then we had to do, that would be a reduction and economic activity in the New York region of about a hundred billion dollars and a reduction of about three hundred and fifty thousand jobs, including three hundred thousand jobs in New York. From a social equity point of view, right now, we're carrying on subway and busses about three million customers a day. That's up substantially from the depths

of pandemic. But those are workers who can't work remotely, who can't telecommute, and there were essential workers. And just as mt A workers at subways, buses, Long Island Railroad and Metro North or heroes carrying heroes during the depths of the pandemic, they continue to do that. The people were carrying don't have the option of a car, they don't have an option of working from home. And it's a matter of social equity. And lastly, there's a limit.

We're now carrying about ninety percent of pre pandemic passenger car and truck volumes on our bridges and tunnels mighty percent. There's a limit to how many cars and trucks can come into the City of New York, can come into Manhattan. We're near reaching that limit. So from the point of view of jobs, social equity in the environment, we need this funding as a first order priority. Okay, so what's your absolute deadline when it comes to making these cuts.

What's your deadline for getting this funding. So at LISA, like any organization, we're on a calendar year. We will present a plan and a budget to our board in November. The board will vote on it in December. It's got to be adopted in December, and obviously bond investors and credit rating agencies and folks like yourselves are going to be looking at that process. So we really need funding and certainty about funding uh early to mid December at

the at the absolute latest. If a bill doesn't. We've been obviously watching the sausage making going on in Washington, and we really urge the Senate Republican leadership to support funding for mass transit as well as the State of New York. In the City of New York. If we don't get that, the m t A may be forced our hand, may be forced to make drastic draponent and service cuts until weigh off thousands of people. The economics, social equity, and environmental consequences of that will be dum

at it. I have to say, Pat, as a lifelong New Yorker born and raised, Yes, wridership has increased from the depths of the pandemic, but is far below anything it has been in recent memory. Given the fact that the m t A, the subway system, etcetera is the lifeblood of New York City, is New York City dying now? New York City is not not dying. New York City is experiencing a tough time. New York was the epicenter

of the pandemic. Frankly the United States in the world, thanks the Governor Clomo's leadership that uh, you know, we've broken the curve. Havn't uh we've broken the curve, right, The curves been broken. Infection rates are are low. Other parts of the country. You're experiencing spikes. New York City is going through a tough time. New York City has gone through tough times before the nineteen pandemic hind eleven, Superstorm Sandy. I've lived here all my life in New York.

The city will survive. Other cities New York, London, Milan, Bombay, Bombay have gone through pandemics in the past. New York will get through us. But to get through what the m t A has got to be funded. It is the circulatory system of the New York City Regional eCOM. Pet Forward. Thank you so much for the Metropolitan Transit Authority, their chairman, and their c Thanks for listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast. Subscribe and listen to interviews on Apple podcasts. SoundCloud,

or whichever podcast platform you prefer. I'm on Twitter at Tom Keane before the podcast. You can always catch us worldwide. I'm Bloomberg Radio

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