Surveillance: Sahm on Fed's Next Steps

This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Tom Keane, along with Jonathan Farrow and Lisa Abramowitz. Join us each day for insight from the best and economics, geopolitics, finance and investment. Subscribe to Bloomberg Surveillance on demand on Apple, Spotify and anywhere you get your podcasts, and always on Bloomberg dot com, the Bloomberg Terminal, and the Bloomberg Business App. They have to be kept in separate offices in Washington. Claudia Sam

That's a tough one, right.

There can, and there have been in the past, disconnects between the kind of numbers that we see about the total economy and what families are telling us about how.

Things are going and where they think things are going.

Sometimes families are correct, right, we don't want to discount this. And yet at this point we have gotten number, like just all kinds of readings on what's going on right now, and they look really good. So it's been a real slog since the pandemic began. Inflation has been high, but like things are good, especially the labor market.

Tourist and Slack writes a beef note to Day to Apollo and it sums up the consensus of the FED. We're returning to two percent. Le Guards said that in Marrakesh we have to get back to two percent, I believe to paraphrase. And the Richmond Fed has a model which is a higher our start. Is this a Fed that's going to have the facts change when they change or they change when the facts change.

Yeah, what we've seen so far is inflation is coming down, right, Like if we had seen it still sticking or going up, then okay, fine, our star's hired.

They got to do more. Probably that is not what we've seen.

All of these models are based on past historical relationships, and we're writing the playbook here and the FED has shown themselves capable of rewriting the playbook. They did that after the Great Recession, so they're going to go where the data takes them. But it's really tough when the typical guideposts just aren't working the way they.

Have Chlouddie, what do you make of the fact that the Beige Book and other anecdotal data really has pointed to a real softening, a slow down pain I felt among the consumers, and the heart TATA keeps coming out surprisingly strong again and again and again.

Right, I don't look at the latest numbers that we've seen, particularly that five percent GDP growth it appears we're headed at and say, oh, things are accelerating, We're going back up to where we are. I think this is a sign that we're bumping around a pretty good place in terms of a sustainable recovery. Obviously that's not going to be felt by everyone. You can absolutely find people to give very heartbreaking stories about what has happened to them.

The pandemic.

So do you think that this is becoming problematic for the inflation story?

Right?

I mean, in other words, is this growth incompatible with inflation continuing to go down to two percent? Or are you basically arguing but it doesn't matter if we get back down to two percent and that that really needs to be what perhaps fetcher J.

Powell talks about today.

We're going back to two percent like the Fed. The Fed is absolutely capable of getting us there, and they may get a little too antsy and we get there with a lot of disruption and potentially a recession. I don't question that target. It's as made up as three percent would be. So you know, there's nothing magical here. We haven't seen signs of this being difficult. Inflation is

What is so with all our good analysis of recession and Michael McKee with us in Washington as well to the two of you, I've got one question. Mike. Let me start with you. Our audience on radio and television is looking at a mortgage rate of eight percent. It's either outright shock or how do we adjust to that? Is citizens, how do we adjust to that within our daily life? From where you sit, Mike, is the fedaware that a thirty year mortgage is eight percent?

Oh? Of course they are, and I've talked to many of them about that, and they do recognize it is a bit of a problem in conundrum because they've raised rates and sort of killed the housing market because they're in a different situation than we have been since I can remember, where their rate increases are so much higher than what we but were able to take out mortgages

But yeah, that's going to take a.

While, obviously, Claudia, bring us over to academics as well. You're writing the next paper at Jackson Hole here on the American housing market. Are we at a point, Lisa and I've talked about this. Are we at a point where for elites like you, the housing market doesn't matter?

Not just for me, right, there were a lot of people that refinanced or purchase housing when we had a very low interest rate. I mean, the housing market has been very disrupted, both in a really good place and now in a really bad place. This has been a tough cycle. And those who timed it properly, and there were millions of Americans who refinance their homes. They're in a good place right now, and like you said, it does make it treat.

They don't want to sell. They don't want to let go of that.

Lisa, we're completely colored by this in New York City, which is a completely wacko original housing market. To me, this is the art we have to live in our houses. I believe that. You know, like every month it's a mortgage payment or a rent payment, And these numbers, to me, have a greater effect than anything else.

We talk about.

Eight percent mortgage filters into everybody's pocketbook.

It affects our mobility and their willingness to move, especially given the fact that it's going to be unaffordable for the vast majority of people to do so. Claudia, I just want to bring that together full circle with this idea of the conundrum that a lot of investors have right now. Are we seeing a world that can manage with five percent rates and keep the growth profile that you're talking about and that we're just seeing today with

It's too soon to tell, but we are absolutely setting up what could be. You know, the really important piece of this would be productivity picks up.

That we're talking about growth.

Is not just quarter to quarter, but we can really sustain it at a higher rate, then we can deal with the higher interust rates.

There are some glimmers of hope.

I mean, that's all productivity looks like right now in the data.

But that's the path.

And then we need Chair Powel to have a green span moment and be like, you know, growth has picked up, but we're not there yet.

He shouldn't do that today when he does the Q and.

A, when we're there.

This is great, Claudie s thank you so much, Marques for one place to say, joined us around now, Secretary esp fantastic to catch up with you, sir. As always, I wanted to lean on your experience in the administration. We've seen some landmark accords come out of the Trump administration, the Abraham Accords, just establishing diplomatic relations between israelom places we never thought we would. We were hopeful that was going to take place with Saudi Arabia and Israel. It hasn't.

Yes, of course we do, and that is Iran principally, and then the proxy groups around the region that they support Hamas, has Blah, the Hutis, the Shia militia.

Groups in Iraq.

Look, I think a big part of what motivated Hamas to attack at this time and the way they did, was the fact that the normalization accord between the Saudis and Israelis was moving forward, albeit slowly, but moving forward. And of course if it was concluded on the terms that we knew that were leaking out, that would have meant a tremendous shift of power back to the Palestinian authority, which of course we know the Hamas is.

Opposed to.

Right, there's friction between Fatah and Hamas, and of course the Hamas's benefactors Iran would also be hurt by normalization because you'd finally see an alignment or an emerging alignment between the Arab States and Israel against Persia against Iran. So I think those are principal reasons why this attack happened.

At this time, the political battle will be engaged to look back to twenty twenty. Hindsight Secretary, what I'm fascinated by is how we prosecute a military affair with Israeli forces. Okay, fine, against terrorist groups. We've never really done this, have we.

Well, I mean, you could argue that our response after nine to eleven when we went into Afghanistan first to displace the Taliban and then of course the pursuit of al Qaeda and eventually ISIS et cetera, was part of that. We of course, yes, we went after ISIS in Syria as well, So but I get your point. Look, it's

What would do screaming eagles do I mean, you know, you've got tangible experience here. Do they do a massive bombardment I'll of World War two, say, and then go in? Or do you expect them to prosecute something different?

Look, I think we've seen the bombardment so far. At some point they're going to have to move in and go street by street, block by block. I think part of the reason why you see so many air strikes is they're rubbling buildings. I will tell you know, you refer back to my time with the one hundred and first Airborne when we were in southern Iraq at the Gulf four. We want to avoid cities because city fighting

At some point they occupy.

But the really big question that we don't know yet is what's the end state. What happens when they're done, Because at some point they're going to pull out. They want to pull out and do what vacuum do you create? Do you somehow politically get the Palestinian authority to come in? Is there some type of inter Arab peace peace keeping group that comes in. Those are the big unanswered questions. What does the end state look like?

Secretary, you were Defense secretary under the former President Trump. How would have his response been different to what we're seeing today.

I'm not sure that it would be different in this moment.

I would argue that it would be different with regard to Ukraine and other countries, but with thee Israel, given the close connections between our countries, our peoples, so much to share between our two countries, I'm not sure it would be that much different. Although I would say that I think Trump would probably take a harder line and a more public line against Iran.

I've argued for that in the past.

I know Secretary of State Pompeo has, and I would like to see more from the Biden administration about connecting the dots back to Iran, because I think at the end of the day, while Israel can go in and decapitate Jumas and try and suppress them, unless you deal with the country Iran again, who's funding and training and supporting them. Then I think Jimas just crops back up over time.

How do you deal with Iran? I mean this has been one of the big quagmi for a lot of nations, especially given that people want to avoid World War three.

Yeah.

Look, I'm not arguing for strikes on Iran right now, but I do think we should see a consensus some more emerging first between the Western democracies United States, Europe and elsewhere about really finally.

Tightening down economic sanctions on Iran.

You could go after their energy exports and I know what that does to the energy markets, and then you could talk about further isolation of them. I just don't think we've seen a concerted effort over the past five, six, seven years, and certainly over the past couple. In fact, some would argue that the administration has been so eager to find a nuclear deal with Iran that we've given them too much.

And look, there's a good case to be.

Made for that, but I think we finally we need to recognize that Iran is at the root of all these problems.

As Secretary asker, if we can finish on drawing on your experience, what do you suppose is happening right now? What we're going to think from the outside looking in is a period of intense deploymacy, a troop build up, seemingly on the brink of a full ground invasion. What do you suppose is happening right now on the ground and what do you think going to see in a coming weeks and months.

Look, I think from the Israeli side, they're gathering intelligence, they're prepping their forces, they're talking about their battle plans, doing some final training and making sure they know the game plan to go in and how they're going to deal with it.

I think that's happening at that level.

At the same time, they're reinforcing their northern front with regard to Hesblo and southern Leblon, and they also have to keep a presence in the West Bank in case that rises up. I think President Binen's done make good moves moving the carrier strike groups into the eastern med The Marines will soon be following in there as well. But one thing that has been talked about is this, Look, if Hesbelah opens up a front in the north, we're

Please to see Tony blinking going around the region.

I think it's important that we try and keep that Saudi Israeli normalization deal on hold, make sure it's not dead. At some point we're going to resurrect that because in my view, if Jimas and Iran hates that deal, those are two good reasons to pursue it, and I think it would really change the dynamics of the region.

You got about a minute left. If we could explore the following, I think it would be beneficial. Is Turkey the missing linkit? Where does Turkey stand in all of this?

Turkey stands in every place.

I mean, they straddle multiple fences right they're criticizing Israel right now. They obviously have a large Muslim population, but they're also active in southern Turkey, northern Iraq, going after our friends and partners there. I mean, they play this game multiple angles. You know, on one hand, they're with us in NATO, but he's supporting PUT in another areas. And of course what we're not talking about is there's a conflict emerging between Armenia and Azerbaijan not too far away.

In many cases, I'm with you, some of these key issues just totally off the radar right now. Let's catch up again soon. Marquesper There, the former US Defense Secretary and author of a sacred oath can scarce them with us CIO at the New h Wath Camerack go in morning.

Good morning.

Let's talk about a struggle for those airlines at the moment. Is that just one sector? Does that tell you something about consumer discretation respend in more broadly? What is it?

Yeah? Where's the ZEMPIC when you need it?

I think that what we're seeing here is this dynamic that we are still very much in a late cycle economy, that there are winners and there are losers. There are those with pricing power and those without pricing power. You see it this morning, Netflix pricing power, Tesla no pricing power. That has something to do with small ticket item versus large ticket item, but it also has to do with interest rates and the cost of capital makes the operating

You go right to the top line. You look at the nominal GDP inflation overlay. You've got the Magnificent seven sales growth up something like thirty five percent year of a year. Nobody's talking about the top line.

Yeah, it's extraordinary, and part of that top line is because they have that great pricing power. Some of that is skewed by Nvidia. It's pretty wild. And Video is going to grow earnings by one thousand percent this quarter, one thousand percent. But even if you remove in Video that the Magnificent seven will still be growing earnings by

Is that priced aunority.

I think it is. I think it is to an extent because you've seen so much multiple expansion. It doesn't mean that these still aren't great companies, but if you look at the direction of growth, it slows materially going into next year. What you see is in video, for example, one thousand percent goes to thirty three percent. You see

John was asking about American airlines and whether some of the disappointments that we've seen from America and from United are specific to this sector or whether there's a broader withdrawal from consumer spending that you're seeing on the ground. Is there a dissonance between some of the official data and the anecdotal data like what we got in the Beige Book that points to a much more substantial slowing down.

Yeah, there is dissidents there. There's also within the credit card data that was the big head scratcher. All the credit card data seem to point to a slowing and consumer of demand. We did not see that. Of course, in retail sales. The best explanation I've heard of that is because the measurement period was after the credit card data was starting to roll over. So I think what we're starting to see is at the margin, consumer spending is starting to soften, but it's not broad enough yet

So what's your prescription except for load the boat on apple? Julian Emmanuel writes a piercing note today with Edheimen at Evercore Isi. They still are on recession twenty twenty four, but he says a defensive tilt is essential. Do you agree or can you be more optimistic and buy shares today?

I think the defensives are certainly washed out right now. You look at big, huge put option buying within the staples, for example. Utilities are very washed up, but there's still

Let's finish where you started a zenpic. You seen in the performance of some of these packaged foodstocks. Yeah, brutal, it's brutal Mondale's tom than something like twenty percent is the peak earlier this year? How much is that stock that company going to change this market?

Look, I think that as long as what you're seeing is this shoot first, ask questions later, meaning that you're pricing in an impact of something that probably is going to take very many years to play out. And the fact that Walmart was already calling it out as far as weaker sales, that seems to be a really convenient excuse as to what they're seeing. So I don't want to I wouldn't want to praise all of that in I think that's one of the reasons why Staples likely

So excuse not a reason yeah, yeah, okay, excuse brama, not a reason.

When we are thrilled to bring a Seemasha chief global strategist, principal asset Management and seeing me and the zeitgeist this morning. Is something changed yesterday? Maybe something changed over the last forty eight hours? Is it nonlinear? Is it quadratic? Is there convexity? Did something change in the last day.

It certainly feels like there is a different level of momentum going on in the market at the moment. We do think we're getting closer to a top certainly. You know, we've had a long help view. We've discussed this many times with you. We are expecting a slow down. It is definitely not showing any signs of coming through at this stage. I think that's what really bond yields are responding to at this point. But of course, a further that yields rise, the greater the chance out of slowdowns

Okay, Well, what I'm going to do, folks is give you the perspective, but not all at once. We're going to drip these data points in to show the losses that are being taken. Just since early April, the ten year yield has down in price twelve shocking percent. So see me your question if you were doing the interview today and that David Weston, do you say to Chairman Powell, Sir, are you even aware of the acceleration of higher yields?

Well, I think it's a it's a bit unfair because actually for the Fed, just like the rest of us, we're all trying to decipher what is driving this tenure that this move up in bond yields. Is it ten premier, is it the move up in neutral rates? And that is going to be really important for how the Fed moves on in its decision. Now it's very difficult to figure out exactly what proportion is driven by which so equally, I think the Federal Reserve themselves are trying to figure

Sima, do you consider treasury is still to be a haven asset.

Gouse?

You know, looking at the way that things are moving in the last twenty four hours, I think you do have to question that certainly, you know, given what's been going on from a geopolitical front, and the fact that treasury yields continue to rise, and the fact that actually gold has rallied, you know, it does set that question. But I think the thing is, at the moment, the market is so specifically focused on the strength of the economy what the Fed is going to do, that they're

There's an irony baked into a lot of the conversations that we've been having with certain investment managers who are saying that risk assets are the new havens that essentially corporate America and the corporations that have immunized their balance sheets are essentially in better financial shape than the US government than a lot of the sothern governments that used to be the star warts.

Do you believe that?

Do you think the traditional risk assets, including some of the stocks that have the highest flyers, are increasingly the haven assets of the moment.

Well, I think that's.

True to some extent, and you definitely do hear that from clients in the way that they're talking about it. It's ignol think by any means. It's very very specific. You know, people want the big balance you. They want something which they know is going to provide stability, and something specifically that they know is you know, they have some understanding over a longer term, so you know they look at the short term the ticket this is very difficult, but at least for a longer term period there are

Yes, I mean you had a tour duty of Treasury and you were very aware obviously with principal global of the United Kingdom bond dibaccle, debt, tobaccle, pension, tobaccle of a number of corners ago. Do you feel we're at a point of instant insitutional risk where the degrees of freedom of buy managers with actual assumptions can't get it done and we become unstable within our conservative institutional money.

Utterly. That is a question I've been getting a lot of within the last twenty four hours as you're getting close to that five percent point. That is the main question. But I have to said, we are not detecting any clear signs of financial stress. These numbers are certainly I guess concerning We actually think that the system can withstand rates getting to five and a half percent. The most important point, of course, is how quickly are That's important Seman.

You're saying that financial system can we stand and move to a ten year US five point five zero percent.

As long as it is backed up by strong economic growth. So again it comes back to what is driving yields higher. If it's because the strength of the years economy is that resilient, our inflation is maybe a little bit content, then yeah, I think that the system can can stand it.

But I also have.

To clarify here as well that look, with financial risks, it's typically not in the area that you're looking at. So it's probably not going to be from the pension system. It probably won't even from the banking system, because it has been ring fenced from by the effect. So you know, typically financial risks, as they arise, when they arise, it's

Start to come up, saying we've got to leave it there of principles management. Netflix shares gaining in the pre market after reporting its best subscriber growth in years is. The company also announcing it's raising prices for customers in the US, UK and France. Brian Weezer and Madison and

Yeah, we're brain over this weekend, and he looked up at the keynose. You know, we just had the CFO there styling from Netflix.

John, am I losing it?

Ere do I need to get out of the suit and bowt tie and get into full Patagonia.

It's like that's the Midtown uniform and I'm against it. I hate it. I saw two chaps walk across Park Avenue yesterday in their Midtown uniform, the Patagonia vests.

No.

My favorite part of this entire show is when you start, you know, going through an issue, and all of a sudden, Tom just is like.

Going to the list, flowing through.

Guy for Netflix is going.

Full mid doown for mid time uniform.

That's all there is.

If your stocks out, you can get away with it. Get whatever you want, okay, if the stalks down, put on a suit, okay.

Right, We're gonna help you with your house. The streaming John Farrell trying to cut down his cable TV bill by I don't know, thirty percent or something like that. Brian Weezer has been brilliant on this principal senior media analyst Madison and Wall and he's really at an arch theme for a decade, which is don't give up on TV?

Do you still hold that theme?

No? You know TV? It's it's like finally done.

Yeah, we're over.

I mean I wrote something yesterday earlier this week where I calculated that the total amount of TV AD inventory is going to fall by about twenty four percent at least under curtainservatives.

Where's it go It goes away.

People don't get as many ads going forward, because even if people subscribe to an AD tier, they're not going to get the same AD loads. But not that many people are going to subscribe to ads tiers in the first place. They're going to take the increases and prices. They're going to cut their pay TV subscriptions to fund it.

When you look at this in a broad sense, Michael Mabusian seventeen eighteen years ago on the concentration of digital product, Are we just going to concentrate down to two or three survivors?

I think that that's possible. I think there are going to be four or five. More likely just a lot of very low profit players. But here's the big thing. A lot of people are thinking about that. Most of them can be global if they bother to invest in it. Netflix will, Disney will, We're not sure what Warner Discovery is doing. We're not sure how much comcasts will they are, but I think that's the big thing that they can

Do you remember the death of the PC?

Oh?

Yeah, it used to be that line that every person who wrote that headline wrote it on a PC. Slightly, I'd run it. We're talking about the death of TV on TV, Yeah, what lives on?

Well?

To be clear, sports.

Paid TV keeps growing. Okay, people will pay for it.

It's advertising on television that is going to continue to decline, decline, decline, decline, but consumers will pay for it.

So let's go to the Walt Disney company. Leave them and what do they do?

That's such a mess. I mean, here's the thing. Separating the network and the stations is kind of ridiculous. Septaring the stations makes sense. You don't need that legacy infrastructure. Think about how you're going to position this company to merge with someone else. Having a regulated business like the broadcast stations combined with the network makes no sense.

Firstly, I don't know where they're going to go.

They don't seem to have a very clear true north like they used to in twenty eighteen.

What do you think I like you was doing then, just saying come to me with some ideas.

I think so I wonder I have a theory that he was getting really good advice from a team he built up over the course of fifteen years prior to twenty eighteen. You could tell they had clarity in what they were doing, and if they stuck to it, maybe it would have been worth less than it was in twenty eighteen, but it would have been a great fifty year business. Now it's strategically all over the place. Are they going to split ESPN?

What about A and E? I mean, there's.

All these businesses that they just don't have clarity around.

Lisa helped me at your house. In my house, nobody watches Disney. Plus they're glued to Netflix.

Yeah, but how old?

Okay, right, I mean how much this is a demographic issue.

Disney survive on the kids.

You know.

Well, To be clear, there is a very direct relationship between shaff spend on content and share of viewing. Sounds kind of obvious, but if you increase the amount you spend on content, you'll get more viewing, right, And so if that follows, if Disney doubles the spend that they have on actual programming, they will get more viewership.

Once the pushback point when you do have consumers that say I'm not going to pay for that, is there have.

We seen anyone breach that? Or is this basically the sky's the.

Limit we're going to be paying, you know, one thousand dollars a month for our our entertainment.

You're hitting on some things.

I thought we're kind of obvious in twenty eighteen when I had to sell on Disney back then. But the point I was making was the cost for these services will be so much higher because you're going to churn. So Netflix can raise their prices fifteen percent, but churn is going to go up too. Marketing is going to go up. The content delivery, of course, we're always going to be higher.

When you talk about churn.

This basically means that people are going to leg in when they see content that they like, and they're going to like showing the.

Backing series and get out you're done.

And suits repeatedly like Tom and John do every night. But I'm curious religiously about whether we also learn something from password sharing and that crackdowns on that do not lead to a drop off in revenues. In fact, you just capture more. Is this going to lead to a broad policing of all the people out there who are still using their parents subscriptions when they're thirty three?

I think so.

And the more aggressive that Netflix or any streaming service is in doing that. Again, it's going to lead to higher prices paid by consumers. But again there's this pool right now of one hundred billion dollars being spent on legacy PayTV services, it's only thirty billion being spent on streaming. That's a lot of money to shift.

And TOELM and I talk about the bundo, the return of the bundo. What does the future look like? Is it the past?

I think it will look a lot like the past. I've called it John McCain's dream, right, remember explain that? Okay, two thousand and three, right, who was chairman of the House or the House Energy Committee.

They were trying to create an a la carte world. Do you remember this.

Basically, they were trying to make it possible so you could sign up, sign off for a given network.

That was a big deal in the cable industry.

People like me. I was a cable outside deutsch Bank. At the time, we were saying this is crazy. It's going to actually cause a worse business going to make consumers are going to pay more, less marketing, less diversity of content, blah blah blah. Well, here we are twenty years later and we got it. It's just at a slightly more aggregated level. But it's not positive for the economics of the business. Consumers might feel better about it, but they're going to pay more for the privilege.

What does sports do? I mean, sports is still megabox. It seems to me that's all people watch sports in the weather and I'm Bloomberg surveillance, But what does sports do?

Sports is in a real worry right now because if basically the only people who are going to access sports are going to be those who keep with the PayTV bundle, you've got to really like your sports because you're going to be paying one hundred and fifty or two hundred dollars a month exactly exactly, and I don't know it.

Suns up at five hundred a month for English football.

Disney put out ak last night with breaking out ESPN for the first time. Fun reading just to see just exactly how big. It is not a shocker on the sizing, but you know, their positioning to do something with.

That outset, which they probably should. Sports is the problem.

Is sports risks going the way of boxing, right, not that bad, but in the way that boxing used to be this broad reaching thing that everyone access and consumed, and then it became pay per view and then stopped having casual fans.

Some of us had pro wrestling and Gorgeous. You know, you get to get to the weekend just so you could watch thirty minutes in black and I.

Wish you could see from space, as he's discussed in from Wrestling Gorgeous.

You do not watch serious religion and then the shit came on.

There's a very interesting negotiation taking place in Italy with Italian football. There is a push by some of these leagues to go direct to the consumer, not to sound the rights, but go direct to the consumer. And I think you alluded to that slightly with boxing.

Yeah.

Is that the future for American sports?

Yeah? I think many of them are going to end up doing something like that.

So the NFL is going to have its own network, its own TV network and just pushes the game straight at it to be.

Clear, they may, they will still prefer to sell to multiple rights holders, and those multiple rights holders will end up praising it very, very high. Right, But the point is, if right now fifty sixty percent of the population might consume a little bit of sports, half of those people are passionate about the sports, half are kind of indifferent that in different group won't pay.

There's a bigger question at our putting that, which is how much of the money goes to the content creators? Right the sports members, the athletes versus the writers versus artificial intelligence. Is there a sense that a greater proportion of the money will go to the creators?

Isn't this the perplexing thing?

With the strikes going on, the amount of spending on content has only gone up now. I think it's actually the showrunners who have been benefiting disproportionally. Jerry Bruckheimer's is Shonda Rhimes, et cetera. That I think is where a lot.

Of the mine is going. And the distribution of talent around the world.

I mean, think of how many people in England are now acting in a series running in the US right as an example, or all over the world, the talent has been distributed, and so the spending on content has been spread. It's like a lot of other industries where we see offshoring in agencies or in other industries. It's the same thing for Hollywood. It's just the people in Los Angeles aren't necessarily the beneficiaries.

So you've put in an an Englishman acting in a series exactly in the US is just acting this kind of this.

Is the Bloomberg series.

What it is?

I'm warming a brama? You meccan moncol No? Please, Madison's that an offensive thing to sign? Okay, all right, interesting, let's look at those phones from Get to see it.

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