Surveillance: Risks Still Out There, Atlanta Fed's Bostic Says

in the script on TV. To me, it's the idea of a one and done tariff adjustment or is it some form of sequence forward? And we still don't know. This came from Royt's in the last twenty four hours, and agreement between the United States and China to roll back existing tariffs as part of a Phase one trade

deal faces fierce internal opposition in the White House. That is where we are right now here in New York on police to say is Stephen Stanley, chief economist at Amherst Peer Punk, Good morning to Stephen, Good morning your take on the back and forth all of this. The market is quite clearly made a decisive move yields higher equities advance, Yet we still don't have a phase one agreement. What is going on? Well, you you need to let

the fund play out a little more. I think every day this week you come in in the morning and the markets either up or down based on what the latest trade headline is. And unfortunately it feels like we're going to be dealing with that for at least another month. You would seem to be higher though on positive news than they are lower on negative news. There's a real difference in terms of the market bias investor attitude than compared to maybe three months ago. Yeah, I think people

are getting a little more optimistic. There's a sense in the markets that maybe the global economy, while it's not greats has maybe seen its worst days and if we are going to get a trade deal, that that signals, you know, maybe better days ahead. Going into your take is interesting. The details of a deal are probably less important than the degree of the clarity that it provides.

Why South because if you look at the U. S economy, the bulk of the damage that's been done because of the trade situation is not so much the direct impact of the tariffs. It's the uncertainty that has kept businesses sideline from investing. So if they see something that allows them to move forward with clarity. Then it doesn't really matter what the details are. It's just getting them back to the table in investing again. And Friday's the game

will start, I don't know, three o'clock this afternoon. It'll clicking on all the blogs, all the analysis. What I call the gloom Friday tone. It's been there every week and the you know, walls of worry up up up in the markets. Steve Sandley, you're gonna drive over that with a bulldozer. With an above two and a half percent GDP call for the next X number of quarters, how alone do you feel and calling for a better American economy over the next number of quarters. Well, it's

certainly an above consensus call. I would say that it's interesting the FED has been much more optimistic in their tone about the economy in UM the consensus market view for quite a while, but the markets have focused more on the fact that the FED has been talking about downside risks UM. Now that the FED has paused, it feels like the shift has gone away from the risks a little bit and more to the UM to the

point estimate forecast, I think a little bit. Where's the source of growth in the U. S economy from here, well, the consumer continues to be the the sector that's kind of driving the train. But I think to get to a faster pace of growth from here, you need to see a little bit of a revival and business investment, which has been negative for the last couple of quarters. And when we talk about consumers, there are discussions about cracks in the consumer. Uh. Do you buy that the

labor market is very strong? Uh? Consumer balance sheets as a whole are pretty clean. I I think the consumers can't get shape. You get the failing though that this might be too little, too light. And as far as the tride War is concerned that manufacturing abroad is taken such a massive hit that it might be inevitable that it bleeds to us to what the pots of the economy. What do you make of the document? Um, I don't

think that that's inevitable. I guess the bleed point, it seems like would be the labor market, right because business has gotten pretty cautious un investment, but they're still hiring. Um. Is there a point which they stopped hiring? And that

was a real concern. I think over the last few months and the payroll report last Friday I think alleviated that concern to a great degree, because not only did you get it better than expected number in October, but you've got significant upward divisions to the prior two months. So all of a sudden, that slowing trajectory that we thought we were seeing isn't there anymore? Enlightened us on the makeup of the marginal decline in exports. There's a wonderful article I am that was based off i AM

F research. I think it was in the f T. It talked about global auto demand, unit demand down, etcetera. But when we say exports are down, is that six you know, tankers out of Portland with soybeans on him? Is that automobiles? Is that IBM computers? What is that iPhone? iPhones are coming this way? When we say we have

declining exports, what is that? Yeah? Well it's interesting because US exports, you know, if you look at kind of what are the big categories, A lot of it is stuff that you would call kind of low on the supply chain, raw materials and um we used to export a lot of waste paper to China, for example, and scrap metal and stuff like that, and then stuff at the very high end, and certainly one thing there would

be Boeing. I mean, we know that Boeing exports obviously are kind of dead in the water right now because of the max um. But yeah, I mean, I think you've seen a lot of altility from one month to the next, and a lot of that is trying to time these changes in tariffs. Um, it'll be interesting if we do get a deal and we get some stability

to see what happens. Two reasons for optimism now, One that we may get a face one truce between the United States and China, and too, there are signs that the global economy it's bottoming out in the trade day to today, expectations that Chinese exports may completely roll over once again better than expect It's still weaker, but better than expect it. Do you see those signs as while Stephen, and it's that more important than a potential for trite

truths that the global economy is shoving scientift bottoming out. Yeah, I mean, you know, it's it's not getting worse anymore. Um, you know, I don't I don't want to jump the gun and say that things are getting hugely are hugely improved from here, But it does feel like it's kind of settling at the bottom, and hopefully we'll rebound from there. I do think the trade thing is is critical here because even the economies that aren't necessarily directly tied, and

and I would give the example of Germany. Um, there's no reason that their economy should be affected by US China trade negotiations, but but it is because they are so highly leveraged trade. Steven Stanley, we are, we are just immune on the American consumer. I won't shop below fifty Night Street. Farrell won't go below Sex. Lisa was seen in Soho like three months ago. I think shopping What is the state of the American consumer away from

our little you know, two zip code view here? Yeah? Well, I mean you've got a three point five percent unemployment eight you've got high consumer confidence, and you've got a savings rate above eight percent? So are we saving? Are we? Are we gonna spend it? You know? This weekend below fourteen Street. I would just say that, you know, most retailers that I've heard from are expecting a very good

holiday season. Do you buy that? I was thinking about that walking around you know above fifty ninth Street last night. Do you really buy that we're gonna have a bang up holiday season? I don't see why not. I mean, almost everybody has a job and people are feeling pretty good about things. So yeah, I think we will have straight once once for an interview with the old g E Office building, which is I think on fifty three.

It was like the studios are right in Jack. I have a serious quick question, Steve, when you talk about Gucci the high end shopper versus the low end shopper, where will the strength come from? Well, I think the good news. You know, there have been concerns about you know, obviously in the political run there a lot of talk, there's a lot of talk about income inequality, but even within the economic circles, I think there's been some concern

about the narrow uh benefits. You know that the upper um income households were benefiting all we're getting all the benefit. And what we've seen lately, which is pretty classic for an economic cycle, is as you get longer into the cycle, the benefits start to move down the curve. And I think what we're seeing is now you've got labor shortages even for unskilled workers. You've got wages going up faster

for unskilled than for skilled wonders. So I think there is some, uh if you want to call it democratization of the expansion. Stephen Stanley, thank you so much for the point. Greatly greatly appreciate that. Global Wall Street gearing up for Friday and from the weekend. Steven Stanley joining us in the last hour of Amir's pure punt and he is a stunning above two and a half percent GDP call for the next six months. Very few people

out there and that optimism Stanley adamant. It is all linked into trade, which is a good way to bring in our next guest on China. Miranda high Song, International senior macro strategist joins us. Now, Miranda, great Tammy with us on the program. Let's start with the data out of China. Shall we expectations for exports to roll over. They weaken, but not as much as expected. Please help us understand whether we have seen the worst of the

data in China. Well, yeah, on the trade side, it was actually the exports were only down point nine, which is a lot better than expectations. Um and interestingly, a lot of it seems to be being diverted. So it's not coming from China, but it's going to the US maybe, but it's going to other Asian um nations UM and offer to to place US tide to Taiwan. So we're actually seeing quite a lot of trade being diverted rather than necessarily going to the going to the US market.

And the interesting thing is now this is basically you're coming on for a year of the trade war really sort of having an impact, and we're now getting into much weaker year on year comparisons. So actually, if this is as bad as it gets, then for the next few months, we might actually see improving figures from China rather than a continued, continued slow down. Miranda. Today was the exports that were better than expected. It wasn't the imports that really picked up. The imports still look weak.

That's a story of weak domestic demand for a lot of people. Any signs that things are actually picking up in the domestic economy, well on the import side is actually so you've actually got if you look at the volume,

volumes were actually pretty good. Interesting crude crude oil was up about twelve um, copper was done, but then you had things like the plastics and and and so interestingly, the the chips chip deliveries were actually really strong about twelve, but it was the value that basically dragged the thing down. So if you think the all prices and a lot of the commodity prices have come down over the last year, so that's making it look worse than it actually that

actually is. And you know, if you if you stip that out, then you're basically talking maybe sort of want two percentage points down rather than the minus six. But I mean coming forward, I think that's going to then also you do have some infrastructure side coming in and then they're really big debate I think is what happens, you know, in the in the auto market, and that could really bring in some sort of a sort of flatlining, a sort of activity in Q four after what's been

a really big drag this year. So how much is this a story of PBOC liquidity making its way into the economy and we're seeing the path there, and how much is it's just that people got ahead of themselves with the China slowing down into crisis story, Well, I think the expectations where the China would be hit a lot worse than it has actually been. Um. I mean,

you have had sort of reasonable um domestic demand. But the interesting thing is the p D O C in the government haven't done I mean as that they keep saying, they haven't done the flood liquidity and they haven't just pushed out the bank loans, and they've kept things quite restrained, you know, things like the shadow banking um and also the p P financing where this is where a lot of consumer debt has built up. It's not actually loosened

us up. Just to be honest, what's keeping the whole the whole economy on the road is actually the property market where they've allowed you know, some loosening and that's sort of keeping everything you know, going reasonably well. But they've not, um, they've not done a sort of a huge stimulus. So that's basically keeping things relatively stable at the same time as you have obviously the trade war impact.

Can they afford to delay all this talk of the week and you know, we're exhausted by the talk of the week, but morinda, can they just toss this into two thousand twenty they they I mean, obviously the so the trade war UM side, they could you know, get this in December. It's phase one. This is something that China would have, um, you know, decided on last year. They would have agreed to something similar you know, this time last year, and you wouldn't have had to have

all this, all the all the rest of it. But the but yea, but yes, in terms of the longer term issues, in terms of you know, getting to the phase two. Um, then the debate is whether China is ever going to concede do anything as as significant as as the US wants in terms of you know them removing state ownership and removing state influence and removing all the a lot of redlines for China. So yeah, I

mean it's phase one could get stein. But then phase two, that's that's going to that's a longer term issue and that may have to wait a lot longer. Well, Miranda, Typically what we would think is that if we go into phase two without tackling the big issues, that it could blow up Phase one. The reason why some people don't think that movie plays out this time around going into next year is because next year is an election year.

Does that change things for you, Miranda, Well, the thing is the China that being hard on China can play well if you get the if you get the Phase one deal signed, and so therefore the agricultural exports and al and G benefits that part of the elector, then that's fine for China and for the US. But in terms of then the bigger scale, so that's a sort of you know, the technology, the five G warth and AI and a lot of the bigger sort of like

state influence. Then to be honest in going into an election taking a strong stance on that may not actually that be that bad if you've already sort of saved a little bit of the economy by doing the by doing the Phase one deal. And Miranda Kurr, thank you so much, greatly appreciated. With High Time International, John. This weekend, it's a keen household movie weekend. I'm signing up for Excite streaming services. November twelve, that's when Disney Plus comes out.

You're gonna sign I got a free gave me a free up on that early, like two weeks early. I've got Disney Plus, Peacock, Hulu, Netflix, the abrama Witz Network. What's the abrama Witz networks? You know, like sort of super is that money Undercover on Tuesdays at one pm, repeat over and over. Lots of people are rushing into that. Keithan Rock Nathan joining us now bloom Bug Intelligence media analysts with Disney. That's what we're here to talk about. Disney.

The stock up by six point five percent with an earnings beat, and November twelfth, they're joining the streaming wars. Gaither your view on the number so far? Yeah, thank you, Thank you so much. John So, there was a lot to like in Disney's report last night. They're firing on all cylinders. But I think, just as we heard Bob Iger speak, there's really a streaming first mentality with the management. There's a lot of enthusiasm around the Disney Plus launch.

This is one This is going to be one of the most affordable streaming services out there in the marketplace, anchored by world class brands like Marvel, Pixar, Lucas Nacio, and it's really perfect for the thirty five million US households with children who want to immerse themselves in the vast world of Disney. I did a long term of all study of Disney, and I think I can editorialize that they haven't popped like they've popped recently back pushing

twenty two years. I mean this surge, streaming surge, this tiger surge that we've seen, what does that do to buy hold cell? Not your by hold cell, but what does that do to the street? Is it out front because of the pop to ahead of itself? I don't think it's ahead of itself. So you're absolutely right, tom So for for for the past four years, I mean, the stock has been languishing ever since two thousand and fifteen when they first spoke about the ESPN subscriber losses.

And this year's April Investor Day was the real catalyst. Um, you know, them announcing the service of the distribution partnerships, the content. Everything seems to be kind of working in their favor right now. I think in terms of near term catalysts, of course the studio is outperforming um, but more than anything, I mean, streaming is definitely going to be the number one catalysts. I think in general, the street is expecting about a ten million subscriber number by

the end of this year. Disney itself refused to give any early reads on subscribers. They've only pointed to their longer term sixty to ninety million Disney plus subscriber goal. But that's over five years. But I think the first reads would be in in the first quarter of their fiscal first ter um when as management decides to give any early number, do we give you a little bit of research here right now, Lisa, November one, Frozen two. Do you go to the six pm show or the

nine PM show? How about the never show? Oh no, come on, You're gonna go see the Frozen two in the theater the first time I got to gotta pay forty eight dollars a ticket or whatever. How big? How big is Frozen two to all this? Oh? It is? It is massive. I mean if you just heard management yesterday. So they actually reported a seventeen percent increase in the

operating operating income for their park segment. But really the driver there was not so much the parks, but it was more the merchandise at thirty six percent increase in Frozen and Toy Story merchant. So this is huge. Brando with boys. You were in Elson and my older son said to me when Frozen one was hot, all the girls love Frozen. My favorite favorite movie is my favorite movie is hot? What what is that? It's not It's

just not appropriate for radio. Like Frozen. How it's up continuing at is very cool, but what's serious is Frozen two moves the needle. I think that there's also an interesting question about fixed expenses for Disney and how much UH they're going to bring in versus pay out. There was a story about how the fact they have come to an agreement Amazon, Samsung and LG Devices and in order to stream their service they already have agreements with Apple and Roku. How much of a drag will that be?

Um So. I think the Amazon deal absolutely adds to their distribution muscle. They've already pointed investors to the fact that there is going to be some upfront costs with the streaming service. I mean, this always happens when you need to build up the scale. Um So. They've pointed to the streaming services not actually bringing in any profits

for at least another three to four years. So is when Disney Plus breaks even, it could break even earlier if if they totally hit the ground running with the subscriber number. So we'll have to wait and watch. Katha

always great to get your thoughts. Keithan Rock and Bloomberg Intelligence media analyst went again on the economic data, I'm pleased to say, joining us right now Atlanta FED President Raphael Bostick sitting down with Bloomberg's Michael McKay and Alex Steele Now are Bloomberg television and radio listeners and joining us here for a special conversation is Raphael Bostic, president of the Atlanta Fed. You're the perfect one to help

us answer all these questions. You said yesterday that you would probably dissented and voted against an interest rate cut at the last f O MC meeting. Why. Well, one of the things that we try to do in the sixth district is really get a sense of what's such rejective of the economy and how much are the risks out there being taken on by businesses and consumers, And in my canvassing of our district and hearing from our directors,

we just weren't hearing that in a material way. And so we had already done a fair amount of accommodation. We've moved twice already, and it was my view that we really should just let that go and let's wait and see how it how it plays out, and if then then if we see that there's more need for accommodation. We could act at that point, We've already done a lot, and I was willing to just let's see how that

plays through the economy. Well, you concerned that rates are too low now that there's an issue with where rates are with inflation quiesced, what would be the problem? Well, I think, first of all, I think we are slightly accommodative UM, and that's fine. I don't think that our position now is likely to spark the economy to get into an overheated mode where we might expect there to be some weakening in response to that. I worry a

lot about the policy space that we have. H We are at a half to three one and three quarters. That's not a lot of space when you think historically what responses have been in the recessionary to a recession. We don't have that much space, and so I want to make sure that when we do deploy our tools, they're they're deployed in maximum effect. Uh. In a way that leaves us with with policy apps moving forward. You mentioned the R word recession, and Alex was just saying

you're the perfect one to answer the question. Uh, there seems to be a change in mood certainly on Wall Street and the idea of UH downturn being priced out now people are getting optimistic. Have you seen that kind of change on the ground in your district or did Wall Street see something that the businessmen men you talked to didn't see. So, my business contexts have been consistent

through this entire year. That consumer has been solid, their revenues have been solid, their profits have been pretty stable. Actually for many it's more than what they expected in and at the beginning of this year, And what they've told me is that they're expecting that to continue on into So I've not really heard much of a change in perspective. They've always been in that positive space and

that's pretty much what we're expecting moving forward. And to add on to that, to the speech you gave yesterday, we'll have a quote from it that sort of encapsulates that to trade policies impacting the business sector as a whole remains modest, flowing capital expenditures by a few percentage points in leading to a small change in overall employment. So, like you were saying, it's not really doing that much.

So walking through what higher yields do then, because we freak out like when we go from you know, one point three to one point eight and there's lots of volatility Wall Street at the market, we freak out, what what does it mean for you? Well, for for me and and for many businesses, I think they take a longer view. So this, this day to day volatility is not stuff that really affects them because it's not what's driving their consumers when they walk into their stores to

buy goods. So so I think that you take a longer arc. And when you see the longer arc, the risks they're out there. There's uncertainty that's out there, much of it hasn't actually been resolved in ways so that we know what the impacts are. And what I'm hearing from businesses is that they're gonna they understand their uncertainties. That's a wide set of them. So they're making contingency plans. They're starting to think about diversifying supply chains and ways

to get goods to market. But it is not with a level of panic or consternation that that uh, you know I've heard articulated in kind of dis context. Well, when you look at when you look at the uncertainty out there, and everybody blames it on the trade wars and things like that. Are companies saying that they need to expand but they're afraid to or are they pretty much comfortable with the resources the supply they have to

meet demand. I think it's more the ladder you. So, for many businesses was a record year in terms of performance, and so staying at a record level is not a bad thing. And so I think that staying at this level is something that businesses would be comfortable with. Of course, if there were opportunities to grow and do things that were pre they would want to do that. But in that context, the biggest constraint that I'm hearing them say

is finding quality labor, finding workers. The labor market is tight, I mean, and they're looking for ways to get the right people into positions so they can take advantage of opportunities. If you're watching Boomberg Television or listening to Boomberg Radio, we want to welcome you. We're speaking with the Land of Fed President Raphael Bostick. Where is the labor market most type? What sectors? So um I would say, not in sectors, I would say at segments of the labor market.

So one of the things that we're hearing a lot of is trying to get entry level workers, like get in restaurants are like has become extremely competitive, and so businesses are changing their their screening requirements. Drug tests in some sense are being dropped, looking at prison records as being dropped. We've even heard of a restaurantur who is

hiring you and you started on the same day. So they're getting very restive in terms of trying to get that entry level worker, and the wage pressures for that segment are significant. Certainly, we know that engineers, tech people, nurses, places where either the economy is super super uh strong for that and looking for those sorts of workers, or where we know we have shortages of workers in the case of nurses for example, or truck drivers, we're seeing

definite competition and that's showing up on wages as well. Well. The question, though, is why aren't wages overall rising given where we are with unemployment. Is there a lot of extra slack out there or have we just gotten used to a low wage environment. So I think it's actually a combination of a number of factors. When I first started this job two and a half years ago, yeah, I asked this question. I was a new guy, I haven't hadn't talked to businesses. I was like, we've got

to find out why this is happening. Because if you're if you're complaining about shortage of workers, obviously just pay them more. You'll get you you'll compete better. And some of them said, look, I remember seven years ago when I had to lay off, you know, a third of my staff. That was so painful. I'm going to be very reticent to quickly take people on that way. Others said that, um, look, today's workers, many of them aren't

looking for wages. They're looking for flexibility in the work schedule. They're looking to bring their pet to work. They're looking for a lot of different things to allow pet to work. Oh yeah, bring bring you got a cat, a cat, the cat person too, so we can we have that in but but yeah, so so finding ways to make people work in their comfortable environment, and that's something that that's happened a lot a lot as well. A third

is on the consumer side. So consumers also remember from the Great Recession that you know, the three desks next to them used to have people in it, and now they don't anymore. So they're so their willingness to push wages has actually changed a lot as well. Now that was that was ten years ago, almost actually more and ten years ago at the beginning. And what's happening is that that psychology, the further way you get, the more you get into a more regular type of mindset and

more historically normal mindset. And so what we're seeing now is we're seeing pretty significant If you look at our our wage tracker that we have on our website, you're seeing significant jumps in um wages for people who are changing jobs. Right, So this this notion that you're starting to get some energy in the churn of the labor force, that's an important sign that that things are actually not so irregular and that we may be getting back into

a more normal phase. In this political season, there's a lot of talk about two Americas and how some are doing really well, particularly urban areas. You've got some big urban areas in your district Atlanta, Miami, Tampa, Birmingham, and you've got some very poor areas. Are there two America's? Do people see things differently as you travel around your district? There are definitely multiple America's, right, So you know, as

I've gone around, and our district is incredibly diverse. We have the big places, we got a lot of smaller places. We look at the map, most of my area is not the big cities. It's smaller towns. It's rural, it's agricultural, and and there are places many of them used to have like a mill that used to employ a lot of workers. But as the economy has evolved, as we can, we've become more global um, those things have disappeared. And so you go to places where South Georgia or northern Alabama,

north western Alabama, or the eastern half of Tennessee. Once you get past um Chattanooga and the like, you see places where they're not experiencing three percent growth and they're got population stagnation and their demographics are aging very rapidly, and they're facing a different kind of challenge than you faced in Nashville or in midtown Atlanta, where where my bank is. And so we try to talk about We talked to them differently about the economy and about what

things they need. What are the skills that might be required for being competitive in the workforce of tomorrow. How do you think about the region to UM to really project that reason and be in the mind of employers that are looking for that next place to open. And so it's a very different conversation that we have in some of the hot places, where it's how do you preserve affordability and access to neighborhoods and getting amenities more

evenly spread across the area. We're talking with Atlanta FED President Raphael Bostika and Blueberg Television and Radio worldwide. Uh, what do you do about that? Then? How do you can you help these other areas, not necessarily the FED, but can they be helped with economic policies? Or have we moved on to a time period where you have to live in the bigger cities if you want to see economic growth. So I actually think you can do

something about this. So one is let's make sure that the people who are living in these places that have stagnated actually know where the opportunities are. One of the senses that I've had is there's so much discussion about you know, these global economy things are changing, things are changing, and in many instances it just stops there and it doesn't say, well, change actually imposes costs, but it also brings opportunities and you can position yourself to take advantage

of those opportunities. I go to a lot of places and they don't know what the opportunities are. They've not had people have that conversation with them. So that's the first thing. Because there are things that these like automation, all these new developments, jobs come with them. Those jobs have a different set of skills, and we need to make sure that they understand what those skills are, and then that we also have pipelines of pathways so they

can get those skills. Because you know, historically in the US we've always had technology technological disruption. So everybody used to be a farmer. Technology can and we don't need farmers. But in those days, we don't need as many farmers. In those days, UM, the skills that you need to do farming weren't so different than skills you needed to

work in a factory. Today, the skills you need to do many of the jobs that are being disrupted out are different, and so we need to have robust and mature training programs and facilities to allow people to get those skills. Is there anything that you can do well, We don't do that at the favernment. UM, it needs to be institutional it needs to be institutionalized. Sometimes that will be the public sector of the government, other times it will be the private sector. So I've had a

director in uh from my Nuance branch. She ran a hospital. She said, we don't have enough nurses. She set up a school and and so so what we're seeing is many different blends private sector, public sector, public private partnerships, nonprofits can get involved. And so one of the things that we try to do when we go around is really try to understand what's in that community that can come together to be the building blocks for those strategies to make that change. Well, let's bring it back to

monetary policy. Chairman Powell has talked about leaving rates low to help those people out as much as possible, to get the expansion into the corners of the economy. Where would you like to see how comfortable are you? But we put this way, with interest rates where they are, and how long would you be able to leave them there in order for that to happen. But first of all, I think it's really great that the chair is willing to talk about the distributional impacts of monetary policy and

the fact that there might be distributional impacts. We know that in economic cycles there are certain segments of our population that are the last ones to benefit, and so the longer that you can have a growth cycle, the more possibilities and opportunities there are for that group to become part of the labor force and labor market. My biggest concern is that if you run low and the market gets too hot. Almost every time we get to a place where the markets too hot, the labor market

gets too tight. UM. That's usually a signal that businessister taking risks, and we often will find that there will be a recession that comes after that. And when that happens, it is often the case that UM, the last ones in are the first ones out, so so the benefits UM wind up not being as great. So one of the things I'm hoping for is, let's get sustainable growth.

Let's have this go along. Does have go in the steady way that we don't get to an overheating position, so that when we get those new jobs, their jobs that will sustain. Now, for me, that's that's sort of part and personal what we're trying to do writ large, and my hope is that we're not going to see those signs of overheating. We're not going to see pockets of the of the economy where it looks like there's significant risk taking that's building up that might spill over

into a broader economic experience or event. So that's that's kind of where where we are right now, where my head is at Atlanta Fed President Ralphael Bostic, Thank you so much. It was really great to spend this time with you and for all of our Bloomberg to television and radio listeners. Thanks for joining us as Atlanta FED

President Raphael Bostic. Alex still there alongside Michael McKee and the Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostick, and really interesting conversation another Fed official, Tom really talking up the US economy and most specifically the US labor market. Thanks for listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast. Subscribe and listen to interviews on Apple Podcasts, SoundCloud, or whichever podcast platform you prefer. I'm on Twitter at Tom Keane. Before the podcast, you

can always catch us worldwide. I'm Bloomberg Radio