This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast.
I'm Tom Keane, along with Jonathan Farrow and Lisa Abramowitz. Join us each day for insight from the best an economics, geopolitics, finance and investment. Subscribe to Bloomberg Surveillance on demand on Apple, Spotify and anywhere you get your podcasts, and always on Bloomberg dot Com, the Bloomberg Terminal, and the Bloomberg Business App.
The charm of Laura Ramas.
She comes from a foreign exchange background. She's chief US economist at FS Investments and follows a data like an animal. I love, Laura, how you're looking at real yields. I just went in and looked not at the ten year the vanilla reel yield, but the inflation adjusted five year yield. It is I'm thunderstruck. We're out three standard deviations, We're back to two thousand and nine. Are real yields now where they have a real effect on the American economy.
I think we've seen that. We were just talking about autos. These are the interest rates sensitive sectors that have been impacted by FED hikes. The nominal part of the cycle. I think as the FED sort of transitions to the end of that, the decline that the edging down of inflation has this insidious effect via the real rates channel, and I think that's what we're going to continue to feel in the housing market, in the auto market. It's going to be a weight on consumers. You look at
the interest rate burden the households are facing. It's not catastrophic, but it is a lot higher and hundreds of billions of dollars matter.
What do you think this will do to commercial real estate?
I mean, I get it, it's not a big part of the gdp PI, but it's emotional and your charm as you're down in Philadelphia rooting for Bryce and the rest of them. You're in Philadelphia, and the answer is you don't have that Manhattan stars in your eye. What's commercial real estate going to do in Philadelphia or in Phoenix?
Well, and those are two very different questions because I think we've seen geographically regionally a huge dispersion amongst performance. We're still very focused on finding the opportunity within a sector that's going to have some clear problems, like the Center business district, where you know we are also experiencing a lower vacancy rate that seems to be settling in well lower than pre COVID, but it doesn't mean there is an opportunity. That's what you've got to love about
commercial real estate. There's so many sectors, multifamily, you know, industrial, you're even seeing hospitality still doing pretty well again selectively. So it's an area where you can really dig in and find a lot of opportunity. You know, it's going to find a new equilibrium. We're seeing that in housing, we're seeing it in commercial real estate. But right now you really want to be the bank, you want to
look towards income. There are ways to invest in commercial real estate because it's going to continue to be a really important sector for any portfolio to diversify into.
And Laura, this really speaks to your theme that you don't necessarily think that we're going back to the era of low rates and low inflation that we were pre pandemic. How much is this the real issue? The threat that the disinflation that we're seeing in autos, in housing, in some other metrics is a headfake, and when that leads to comps year over year in six months, that make it easier for inflation to go higher.
This is exactly the point that I try to draw out for people, because housing has been a primary example. Yes, cyclical headwinds with interest rates, but structural tailwinds given the underbuilding and underinvestment that we've had in this sector for years. So as we look ahead, you know, unfortunately a forecast is in a recession. Is in my forecast mild re session looking ahead into the beginning of next year. But
it doesn't have to be severe. And the fact that interest rates are now going to offer investors two way risk is an absolute game changer. We've had forty years of you know, with exceptions, but a trend of falling interest rates, and it has caused people investors to change their behavior over generations and looking ahead, if we get this bounce in our star, I think we're seeing it, you know, look at the look at the Bloomberg gag. Right, it is flat on the year despite a lot of
up and down. You cannot lock in a price gain and you're left relying on income that still is very low relative to where inflation is.
Lara, thank you for your input. Lad run in there of FS investments so com protty with a surrounded type who doesn't want to talk about this multi Sepput Fundo manager take Morkan asset management. Can you understand?
Amazon comes there?
And I love Glad as well.
Great movie, Thank you, thank you, we're recreating it. Let's talk about this male kit on Friday we get some earnings. We won't talk about your bank specifically, of course, for obvious reasons. What do you expecting this earning season from the banks? From big Tech and Ken This rally broaden out.
John, So it's going to look better than it did in March. I think there were so many head fakes and noise at the end of the first quarter that even the Fed got faked out on right. They expected us to be in recession by now. There were a lot of people saying that by July and September the Fed could be easy. And as you said, right, this is a year where the narrative changes every single week. And that's true, John. We are we have dropped our
recession probability from forty percent in March to twenty five percent. Now. We are pretty highly convicted that we're in the midst of a soft landing. So what does a soft landing look like? Means that the economy can continue to grow and avoid recession, and that's why we dropped our PROPAB. The second pieces employment stay strong, and I think that's been the signal all along, Like there have been people like we're going in assession, we're going to over session.
You need this labor market to crack, and that has has been very, very resilient overtime. And then the third piece is the easing has to get has to get pushed out, and that I think was one of the biggest misses this year was that there was so much easing priced into the back half of the year that had to go along with the crisis. You had to be long a crisis if you believed in an easing in the back half of this year. Now the deflation trajectory flattens out, that's certainly the case, which is why
the easiest being priced out. You heard Mary Daily last night, two more hikes. I think that's appropriate. They're probably going to do one more hike than they're comfortable with because we're nowhere near our target of two percent core inflation. But it is an awesome time to be a multi asset investor. We were up ten percent in the first six months of this year in a balance fund nobody's
talking about that, every tingting about Nvidia. I think the balance fund up ten percent is really exciting as well, and certainly more than that three month T bill that's at five percent. That's been my all year, and there's way too many people.
I love your research, the concision of it. At the end you say, do this, do this, do this. But the phil camp for early idea here is you got to be in the market, Yes you got. I want you to talk right now to people who are scared stiff. What's the level of fear out in the street, because don't you have to go up with a wall worry?
Yeah?
So, and we've heard it all year. We've heard debt ceiling for a regional bank crisis. It was a foregone conclusion that there was gonna be a recession this year. Tom And I'm not talking people to get out of cash and go into equities. That's not what I'm saying. I'm saying when you're making a bet on a balanced, diversified portfolio, which by the way, has worked over so many years, you're not making a bet on stocks or bonds. You're making a bet on the relationship between those two
asset classes, which was absolutely like inverted last year. Last year was the first year since nineteen seventy four that both stocks and bonds went down in the same year. And I came on this show and told you, you know what, we have the best forecasted return for the sixty forty that we've had since two thousand and ten coming into this year. So, Tom, those are the folks.
That I'm after.
They're sitting there in the three month tea bill. It's like the best hedge fund out there right at five plus percent, and they're saying, I'm safe here. Well, you know what, if the balance funds up ten percent in six months, their opportunity costs just went up.
That said, you talked about the soft landing probability, which changes a bit. On disinflation, Yes, ongoing. We've seen disinflation with used car prices going down, as John mentioned, We've seen disinflation in some of the rental prices. We've seen disinflation even even from the smallest small business survey if you look out that starts to change later in the year. Is the disinflation that we're seeing a head fake? And could that be a real potential risk list?
So that's our biggest risk to our forecast if disinflation starts to trend higher towards the end of the year. So you know, when this base effect of June rolls off and we get this this move in, you know, on tomorrow's CPI number, the risk is and I think this is why that the base case has to be for central bankers to talk extremely hawkishly. They cannot afford to let the ten year treasury move lower and rate.
Why because that controls the housing market, and if the housing market and the owner's equivalent rent part of this shows firmness towards the end of this year, you know, that's a scenario where you could have equities going down and bonds going down, not to the same extent of
last year. Last year was a historical event, but that's probably our biggest risk, that that disinflationary curve starts to trend higher and instead of sticky inflation, accelerating inflation happens, and that would be our biggest risk.
Now that's not our base case.
We're not investing for that, but that is probably more of a risk than the US falling into recession by the end.
What are you invested for three percent inflation? A return to two. Do you see anything compatible with a return to two right now?
No, So we don't have enough of a growth kind of deterioration story, John, that would speed up a disinflationary back to two percent before the end of next year. Now that doesn't mean that you can invest in this market as long as the disinflationary process can you start. If it's flat, it's okay. Maybe you don't get the return in bonds, but maybe you start to get that breath story in what I call the S and P four ninety, which is everyone else to be able to to keep the market calls.
Like twenty seven.
You know I'm looking here, John, headline inflation four percent prior plunging to three point one percent survey.
I don't think enough has been made about tomorrow.
You get a headline inflation number, what if there comes into two point nine percent.
That makes it out stunning.
But they know that they know that last June's number was one point two percent, and that's rolling off. So if you get a high point one or a low point two, that's a base effect. That's not going to make them say let's wave a victory flag on inflation. And I think that's that's that's the real sick.
I'm trying to make a six sign in brama. Got to take tomorrow morning work. Thanks okam party that JP Morgan Ascent Management.
Top of the Google search message right now as Shakira and Sir Lewis Hamilton. There's got a lot of a lot of Google love coming off of the Formula one race. Right behind them and a Google search is Claudia Sam. She is an economist, a former FED economist and founder of Sam Consulting, and she has been out there and visible over the measurement of recession. We're thrilled that doctor Sam could join us this morning. Claudia, you mentioned California.
It's ginormous, It's as big as the German economy, and all of a sudden, California's unemployment rate goes from three point eight percent up to four point five percent. Should we follow and be aware of California?
So we should be watching every state, every labor market that we can remember. The FED is set for the national economy right so we can't expect the FED to get too excited about what's happening in California because right now we have to just this could be there are a lot of tech layoffs. There were big disruptions in the Bay Area. So what we're seeing in California could be unique to California, or I could mean that we're headed to slowing overall.
What do you see in your data?
I know, mid month you get a massive redo here, you'll have that out in ten days whatever, But what do you see right now?
Let's get out in front.
I need to make some news this morning, Claudia.
Yeah, Well, the economy, the labor market is in a great place for people. So because they've been the workers have had the upper hand. When I look at the wage data, which I think a lot of people were, you know, wringing their hands over yesterday, it's like, how do you think you're going to get workers back into the labor market and deal with labor shorages if you don't pay them more like this is econ one oh one. So to me, seeing that we're still adding jobs, it's
really good. So people find a way to turn it into really bad. But I won't do that, Claudia.
I love your note where he said it's not hard to find an angry macroeconomist. Macroeconomist at this point everyone's made mistakes, and everyone's trying to figure out how to carve out a niche for themselves to explain what just happened. How do you understand the dissonance between everyone's expectations of where the economy was headed and what actually has happened.
Well, as I started there, every macroeconomist has missed something this time, right, and they're very different things that we've missed. So and really, people get kind of not happy when they're making calls and they're not getting it. They sometimes get even less happy when they look around and see
people who've made big mistakes all over the news. So I think that's where you know I pointed out in this piece you're referencing on Bidenomics, is that you know, like you got to take it with a grain of salt, always what your advisors come to you with. And I think right now, unless they're bringing a lot of nuance, it could do more damage than good.
But what are we misunderstanding just to the point of the making mistakes, and we've all made plenty of them, but what are we misunderstanding about pandemic economics as Tom would call it, or where we are in the recovery, or where we are in the distortions, whether it's California people moving away from there or the Northeast, or even people's propensity to switch jobs shift locations, spend more than they otherwise would to capitalize an experience that they were denied during twenty twenty.
Right, So I think it's all in there. The economy is upside down and backwards, and we need to be aware that every data release you get could be leading us astray because it's not clear yet are we doing the rebalancing or are we going down? And we'll know more about that in a few months. In terms of you know what went wrong, I certainly was expected that the economy, the supply would come back online more quickly
than it did. And I think on the other side, we see this disinflation right now without unemployment rising, which is a huge puzzle to macroeconomists that would use models like the Phillips curve. So you know, we'll keep going at it. And that's where as analysts, if we dig deep in the data, that's kind of where we should stay in terms of grounding our analysis.
Claudia, what I love about when you come on is my brain gets going and I'm doing research I usually have never done, Like, I've never done.
This, folks.
Out of the percent of GDP of America, and there's like twenty three states or so with under one percent of America's GDP, they're tiny. You know, we know the names Texas and California make up twenty three percent of American GDP. Do people like you focus more on those big states or do you aggregate everything together?
Frankly, there hasn't been a lot of work, say at the FED on regional effects. They have experts in the building who are not economists, and yet they don't play an integral role. I think, you know, we need to pay attention to states because they could be the canary in the coal mine, Like if we could get ahead of this even a little bit, if we get a recession, that's important. I will say states like Texas and particularly Florida, like they have more than recovered their losses and employment.
So it's you want to look at the states, but that's not going to be the place you stop with the analysis.
Where do you look with the analysis? What do you look at with the analysis? Is you try to measure a sum like recession?
Yeah, I had no idea this was going to become such a thing, because you know, I've developed this Sam rule in order to start up fiscal policy send out the checks. But you know people want to use it as an indicator. That's fine. But the Sam rule is not a forecast tool, right that does It does not tell us about where we're going. It tells us about where we are. So but knowing early in a recession that we're in one, that's that's helpful to know.
We're speaking with Claudias Sam of some consulting who is famed for her some rule with respect to employment. We're about twenty four hours away from CPI in the United States, the headline is supposed to drop from four percent to three point one percent year over year. That is the headline figure core less so to five percent from five point three percent. Claudia, what are the big concerns that we've been hearing about from a lot of our guests this morning? Is a head fake when it comes to
disinflation in the US and the pace of it. We have seen used car prices come down, we have seen rents come down. We have seen some certain peripheral areas of the economy show signs of disinflating. Is it enough and is it showing signs of consistency to bring us where we need the FED where the FED would like us to go.
We're still in a place of a lot of uncertainty, and the FED leans much more on the you know, the the using unemployment versus inflation. So that's more of like a rule of thumb, and we're so far off that, right We're back to the days of before the recession when unemployment was so low and yet inflation didn't pick up, and it's like, what is going on? So I think, you know, we've carried that uncertainty about how those relationships work into the present and that's partly why I think
we come out of this with some reason. From the macro profession.
Right now, I'm also watching specific sectors, whether it's autos and the idea of prices going down for use cars. I'm looking at the housing market, the mystery of why housing prices having cracked at a time when mortgage rates are the highest going back since two thousand and sixteen, I believe at the earliest, actually further than that, I think it was more than that decades. Claudia, what sector are you looking at for a tea leaf in order to project where we are headed with inflation?
Well, I think you listen to the news cycle and you hear things like I had not planned on last week doing state dependent p SOM rules, right, but I did so. In terms of industry, it's like you go after where the story is. You know, you look in the it the tech and see it like what does that look like? And actually some of it. There's some places where we had really a lot of trouble bringing workers in, like Staton local government. They're like one of
the big additions right now. So again that looks like rebalancing to me. But like you said, you're going to pick up and follow any sector that is right still higher inflation.
Claudia, I just had a nightmare. I was thinking about you as a FED president or a FED governor. We want can you see Claudia at the Echoles building around the table.
I think she's take close to that.
Michelle Smith will get her a Starbucks.
Claudia. The character of the descent right now at the FED, I.
Mean we know that if you were there there would be a visible psalm descent, no question about it. What's the nature the character of our non descent descent at the FED.
So I think it's really unfortunate that you have like straight line votes and then you get to see a summary of economic projections that there's clearly disagreement, right, Like, I don't know why they are shy about saying that. You know, there's a lot of moving pieces here and we there ought to be somebody and some of these people have been openly for a pause, right and then there's been some openly Fed officials openly for going forward.
How do you get a pause out of that? You think you're going to do twenty five basis points more twice? Why aren't you doing it now?
Right?
Like that, everything was very puzzling with the Fed.
Claudia, Sam, thank you so much, greatly appreciate it. Congratulations on the impact doctor Salm is having on our slow down stagnation recession debate. Joining us down This is important for Global Wall Street. It's a really intelligent note for Northwestern Mutual Brunch. Shooty joins us their CIO, and buried in the note is a really important observation that we've downplayed.
I've been as guilty if this as anyone, Brent, and that is you look abroad at the developed nation equities and you say that they are remarkable, that they are remarkably cheap. We're beginning to hear this in our analysis. What equities abroad are remarkably cheap?
Well, I think there's many parts of the market that are actually cheap. Considered that US small and midcaps trade at thirteen to fourteen times earnings that are marked down ten to fifteen percent. So I can trast and compare that to the large cap US equities, which is where everybody has want to have been for the past few years, and they trade at twenty times earnings, and so I think you were mentioning short, mid and long term. Unfortunately, I'm more of a pastmist. I do think there is
a recession that is likely. I know that narrative has changed, and I think that puts more of a wet blanket on equities in the near term. But I do think in the middle medium term, I do think the parts of the market that are cheap will do well coming out of what I believe will be a shortened, shallow recession.
And that's where I encourage people to position their portfolios more towards those areas such as US small, US mid and dare I even say international equities, which I know have underperformed for some time but are remarkably cheap and I expect better days in the outsite side of the recession.
Are there tech.
Growth performers in the mid cap area?
Yeah, but how much do you want to pay for those? I mean, I know that AI's been the craze. I know that earnings growth has slowed, and that's why people have gravitated back towards those. But it reminds me a lot of ninety nine nine two thousand, where that was the narrative in the next seven years. Those names did well from an earnings perspective, but not from a price perspective.
And so I know, not every time in history rise, but this time period feels a lot like ninety nine to two thousand in so many different ways than that being one of the primary ones.
Tom earlier said that it's almost silly to discuss recession and all the gloom and doom. Earlier was perhaps not looking at the actual data, which showed a strong economy. How do you parlay that into a soft and shallow recession that could just ameliorate some of the inflationary pressures just enough to keep growth going on this kind of sphere.
Do you think that that is the most likely outcome at a time when there is still this inflationary pressure that's rearing up on the back end of the year.
I mean, I think current inflationary pressures as measured by CPI are highly linked to COVID that is now in the river view mirror and are going away. But that's not the big concern the FED. The big concern is wages. Every economic cycle ends when you run out labor market slack, and that's where we're at unless people come back to the labor market. And so if you look historically, the FED hikes rates aggressively as wages reach four percent on
non supervisory and production workers. That's where the last three economic cycles have ended. And we're at four point seven percent year over year right now. I don't think the FED stops until they see the labor market crack, which I think we call recession. And so I think about this liquidity tournique that's on the US economy, and I think that means a recept is likely in the coming quarters.
The good news is that I do believe unless you think the real nuturrate has changed from two point five percent, we're above five. There is plenty of room if inflation is gone, for the FED to cut rates to kind of help cushion that blow. And when you contemplate the consumer still has ample savings and likely will after this recession, I think that's why it's short and shallow what.
Keeps you up at night. That could potentially challenge that assumption of a short and shallow to something that looks more traditional in terms of recession.
The FED keeps hiking, and so I worry every single time the labor market comes out and shows supposed strength, and the FED keeps hiking into that because they want to see it completely gone. I think they've probably already gone too far. If they continue to go based upon some belief that inflation is not completely back to two percent,
I think every sign points in that direction. If they keep going, and they go further and further until they get the labor market to crack, then I think you're going to see or could see something that's a bit deeper.
You said supposed strength. Is there more to this labor market that makes the eye from your perspective, I.
Mean, this is where I think people look at the data over the past year and it's been very odd. You saw household employment last year for many months actually be flat. So from my belief, February to November of last year, houseold employment rose whopping two hundred thousand total, while non farm pray rolls rolls two point eight million this recession commentary, does anybody realize that gross domestic income has actually been negative for two quarters. That's the opposite
of gross domestic product. And so I think there's just so many conflicting data points. You have a post COVID recovery that's quite odd, and I think the FED is reacting to different data that is more strong, and they won't stop until they see it weakening, and hopefully they don't go too far and want it to weaken so substantially that it does cause that deeper recession.
How hard is it to be bullish with that kind of analysis and what the FED is doing well?
I joined Tima Bramowitz a few months ago and became much more barriers for the first time in many quarters. And you know, I think there's good news in it. It's more along the lines that you do see. Part it's the market that are chieved, and I think for people who invested in bonds for years when rates were at one and three quarters on the Barcley's aggregate bond indecks,
they're not five percent. So you have the opportunity, I believe, to hedge your portfolio against downside by investing in bonds, which I think offer real value in a period of time where I think inflation is going back to two percent and a hedge against equities once again, which I know they weren't last year, but I think they'll return to their historical kind of a role of actually balancing downside of equity markets.
See Brandma Brent, thank you, franciating Northwestern Mutual, Thank you, sir.
We welcome all of you across this nation to a conversation with Jonathan Miller. He's president and CEO of Miller Samuel. All I can say, folks is go to the Miller Samuel website and look at what he has wrought. He owns the high ground on owning and renting dynamics in major cities and indeed the nation. Jonathan Miller, what is the trend right now that's not in zeitgeist and all that? Miller Samuel data. What's the number one thing that people aren't talking about.
Well, I think I think that housing prices are going to rise more than we think they are. That just in the last few months, things have really rebounded price wise, and it's because I don't think there's enough a sort of consideration given to how much listing inventory is falling off trend, meaning that new listings entering the market declining because people are heavily wedded to their three percent thirty year fixed and it's going to take a while for that connection.
To well, that's a key point. John.
On the X axis, how long is a while? Is this a two year, three year workout or is this an eight or ten year workout?
No, I think it's probably a one to two year maybe maybe more towards two than one, But I think it's a while. I mean, one of the things that we learn is that homeowners take one to two years to capitulate to market conditions, and also too that people you know this they have you know, it's shelter, they have personal needs, and at some point we see more
people having to move into the market. The problem is that mortgage rates for those people are more than double what they were but we're also seeing bidding wars expand because of the shortage, the chronic shortage of supply. So I think this is a couple of.
Years out, Jonathan does to sort of give a sense of what we're talking about. Is this on average in the US or is this in select markets that are hot or hotter like New York right now at least in other areas.
I see it as a US. I cover about fifty different housing markets for real estate brokerage Juggle, and we're seeing the same pattern everywhere, whether it's Southern California, Texas, Florida, you know, d C, Boston, New York City. New York City is probably one of the more robust in terms of activity, just because their sort of housing boom, if you call it, was interrupted a little bit early by changing FED policy, because they relate to the party. If we push this, this is a national condition.
If we push this forward, Jonathan, tomorrow, we get CPI and the headline inflation read in the US, and a lot of people are expecting some of the year over year comps with respect to rent coming in quite significantly. Because of the fact that we did see a slowdown
at least in the appreciation of home prices. Do you think people are overstating how much rents can either plateau or even decline given the trends that you're seeing, with pricing probably increasing more than people expect in the housing sphere.
I think it's an overstatement. And also too, I don't I don't see the two markets as sort of a knee jerk reaction where one instantly changes over the other. I think, uh, you know, the rental market is mixed. Where we're seeing certainly areas where rents are going down New York Metro that's not happening. It's very vibrant, so it's hard to imagine, you know, any kind of sudden move.
I think this is I think we're going to be sort of stuck in this position for for a while, unless there's a meaningful economic event like a recession, which has been forecast for them in six months from now. For the last two years, you know, we're sort of stuck at the moment. And I think time is what changes homeowners' positions in terms of bringing property onto the market.
How is the tenor of the purchases of homes changed If people aren't necessarily taking out a thirty year mortgage in the same way. But maybe they're getting a loan from the actual homebuilder to buy a home, or maybe they're refinancing someone else's alan and putting their name on it to get the lower rate. I mean, how is the nature of the financing just shifted completely to avoid paying the punitive rates that are currently instated at the headline level.
Well, Iley's marvel at the discussion about affordability is centered on the thirty year fixed and that's sort of the benchmark. But I've been through many cycles and you see people work through that, work around that. Just for the reason, just with the examples that you gave, homebuilders are doing a lot of offerings on financing, buying down rates. People are getting five ones, seven ones, ten ones as a
way to reduce the payment. I mean, there's a lot of things that we didn't have to do two years ago because they're was on the floor that no longer exists.
Joe Miller, I'm fascinated what you would say in a case of New York, to Governor Hogel of Buffalo and New York City in the state, or to Mayor Adams or Frankly, the mayors the governors of Florida, or even the way you cover the fancy people out in Colorado with eight thousand square feet in Aspen. What would you say to public officials about the national outrage that to be selfish.
Our kids can't afford to.
Live, right, So we go through this, it seems like we've been We've had this conversation a decade ago. And more than that, there's too much volatility in housing. One of the biggest problems is we just need to build more. The challenge is to make it middle class. Florida Bill forty percent of the middle class were sort of wiped out of the ability to buy a house in the last year. It's I mean, John, ability, affordability means.
Now, I'm going to run out of time here, but I want to get this in. I think it's too important. All the media. I'm as guilty as this as anyone. All the media wants to look. As Lisa mentioned, OMG, the luxury people are putting six million dollars all cash into four thousand square feet where they can see, you know, Connecticut, and you know they can see Pennsylvania over.
To the west.
Forget about that on the Upper East side over past Third Avenue, where people are just trying to do rent on Second and First Avenue. What's your prediction for the next twelve months.
I think that rents are probably going to peak at the by the end of the summer, maybe sooner. But I see them stuck at some sort of plateau, not not seeing any meaningful decline. And that's kind of where we're in in the rental market. Maybe rents aren't going to be rising, but they're not going to be falling.
John Miller, Thank you so much. Hugely valuable with Miller, Samuel Douglas element Subscribe to the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast on Apple, Spotify, and anywhere else you get your podcasts. Listen live every weekday starting at seven am Eastern im Bloomberg dot Com, the iHeartRadio app, tune In.
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You can watch us live on Bloomberg Television and always. I'm the Bloomberg Terminal. Thanks for listening. I'm Tom Keen, and this is Bloomberg