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I'm Tom Keene, along with Jonathan Farrow and Lisa Abramowitz. Join us each day for insight from the best and economics, geopolitics, finance and investment. Subscribe to Bloomberg Surveillance on demand on Apple, Spotify and anywhere you get your podcasts, and always on Bloomberg dot com, the Bloomberg Terminal, and the Bloomberg Business App.
We've been too long to wait.
For Dana Peterson, Chief Economists at the Conference Board. With these market moves as well data, when you see a report like this with consumption that is buoyant, with the surprises in housing, do you have to shift your FED guests?
Well, I would say that the Fed, well we have. Our guest was that there'd be one more interest rate hike. Maybe we're looking at two or even more, especially if inflation doesn't cool off and consumers continue to spend and the labor market remains bus So. The problem here is that you know, good news is bad news for the FED.
Good news is bad news for the FED. And again you can sort of see that pricing reflected in the two year yield right now really spiking on the back of this print. Let's talk about initial jobless claims too, like Mike said, actually fell and that's been sort of the mystery of this economy is the resilience of resiliency
of the labor market. When you think about the Fed's long path back to that two percent target, do we need to see weakness there or is there any scenario where okay, maybe things remain rosy on the jobs front, but we also see inflation continue to come down well.
On the jobs front. When we ask CEOs, what are you doing about labor markets? At least the third are still hiring, but forty six percent are saying we're not doing anything. So that means they're hoarding labor. They're not letting people go because they think that if there is a soft spot or even a recession, it's gonna be short, it's gonna be shallow, it's not going to be that bad.
And so they're just holding onto their workers because they spent so much time and effort and money attracting labor and also trying to keep them.
What does that mean for wages that impulse to hoard labor here to hang on to that workforce, are employers having to raise wages even more from here.
Well, in the same survey if CEOs, they said, yes, we do expect that over the next twelve months, we're going to have to continue to raise wages. Most of them said between three and five percent. That's a pretty big gap. But still in all the fact that they're even talking about raising wages is pretty critical, and certainly that spills down into consumer prices, which the FED is desperately trying to lower.
Dand of the Conference Board has such a heritage with the measurement of the tone of business. What is your reporting now the granularity of the Conference Board on the mood of business America?
Sure, well, we talked to CEOs and CFOs and all the seas out there, and it's really mixed. Some aer it really depends upon their industry. Some are saying things are bad, especially those in finance and tech, that you need to down right size their labor markets. And then we have others that are in consumer services and that they're saying now is awesome, It's really great. So I really think it depends upon the industry.
Totally agree Dana Peterson with us. We're going to continue with her for a few more minutes as well, if you're joining us, I thought it would be a sleepy Thursday. Tom is wrong again, to say the least. A stunning reassessment of the strength of the American economy off GDP. Good morning to the optimists out there who see the glass have full. Also claims coming in, as Katie Greifeld mentioned as well. Features up twelve, they lifted earlier, still
up nicely, Nastak up three tenths of a percent. But the bond market has been extraordinary with reassessment nine basis points three point seven nine percent on the ten year yield. Peterson, the first six months of the year have been wrong, wrong, wrong, for so many. It's just been extraordinarily difficult. Is that because of the pandemic. This is just is a jumble of economics and dynamics. This is, to use a cliche, this is original territory.
This definitely is original territory. We have two things going on at the same time, the waterbed effect from the pandemic, where you have strong desire to spend on services after a lot of pent up demand when people were cooped up, and you also have labor shortages. Labor shortages are new in this sense, and the fact that you have so many baby boomers with experience leaving and so that's leaving
a lot of employers short. So between strong demand for services and a limited desire to let people go, we're seeing the we're seeing consumer confidence and certainly consumer spending remain buoyant.
Jobsday, July seven, what do you see.
Well, it's possible that we'll continue to see job editions. We still have a lot of vacancies out there, which is probably disappointing the FED because they really wanted those vacancies to shrink. And the unemployment rate's probably still going to remain pretty low.
He's going to remain pretty low. But come on, he's gotten nothing done here. What's a traction here for the Fed to meet the theory they are praying and hoping for.
What's the path on that data?
Q three, Q four.
Well, what needs to happen is consumers need to feel that they might lose their jobs, right, so you have to kind of scare them into thinking they're going to
become unemployed and that will cause them to pull back. Also, this excess savings that we've been talking about in aggregate, we think that's probably going to run out in the fall of this year, and so once that happens, and if consumers really believe something bad has happened is going to happen, which our indicators keep saying, then that will help slow the economy and thereby inflation.
Dana, thank you so much.
Dana Petersons the kind from board here off the shock of a third look at first quarter a GDP.
Matthew Hornbach, global head of macro Strategy over at Morgan Stanley. Great to have you on the show. Joining on a morning where we have really a blistering column from Bill Dudley, of course, the former New York Fed President now a Bloomberg opinion columnist, writing that when you add up all the forces that he sees in the economy right now, he ends up with a four and a half percent
ten year treasure yield. You wrote a few weeks ago that you expect ten your treasure yields to end the year at three and a half percent, So a lot of distance between those two numbers. Walk us through what you see that's going to push the ten year down to that level.
Think thanks Katie for having me on the show. It's a pleasure to be back. Let's start with fiscal policy, for one. I mean, I think, you know, mister Dudley is correct in that fiscal policy had been playing a pretty supportive role for economic activity in the United States. In fact, just over the past twelve months, the federal government budget deficit total two trillion dollars, which was a one hundred percent increase from the twelve months before that.
So over the past year or so, the economy has been supported by a fairly sizable fiscal deficit. But when we look at the projections that are coming out of the Congressional Budget Office and we incorporate that into our forecasting, we actually see that the rate of change of fiscal support is going to decelerate meaningfully over the next twelve
months or so. So by the time we get to the middle of twenty twenty four, we're actually we're actually going to have a fairly large decline in the deficit, to the tune of about twenty five percent on a year of a year basis. So, you know, we do think that fiscal policy has been supportive of activity, probably keeping inflation elevated. But you know, over the next twelve months, we think that support fades pretty quickly.
It's really interesting to hear you say that, because I mean, the narrative has been that, you know, the trillions of dollars that we saw on stimulus from the fiscal side during COVID really put us in the situation we're in now with that very sticky inflation we're seeing. But it sounds like you're making the argument that actually that's going to turn into a tailwind of sorts for the FED.
Well, certainly with respect to bringing inflation down. I mean, our economists have core PCE inflation ending this year at three point four percent, which is fifty basis points below the fed's just released economic projections for inflation. So we do think that inflation will decelerate more meaningfully than the FED is expecting. And I think one of the key contributing factors there is the fading away of fiscal support.
Armback with us with Morgan Stanley. We're gonna digress here right now, and this is Germane and we're going to begin a third quarter conversation with him. If you're a young Turk at Morgan Stanley, not the privilege, the pleasure, but the honor of being in Tokyo with Robert Allan Feldman is unmeasurable. Robbie Feldman was a huge supporter to me over the years with his true expertise on Japan
culture and Jaman finance. And if you're Matt hornback to show up with doctor Feldman and Tokyo is pretty cool.
Matt.
You guys own Tokyo with Doctor Feldman and with your time there as well. Let us just get to the wisdom of what's it mean for Americans? If I get yen back up to one fifty, if I get week yen, what's the sowat for our listeners and viewers?
Well, well, Tom, I think that the first thing I would need to do is change my necktie into a bow tie, which is of course your dress of choice as well as as well as Robbie Feldman's dress of choice. So I don't need to do that to start the conversation. But given that we don't have time, what I would say here is the takeaway for our listeners here is that, look, Japan is a wonderful holiday destination. I mean, with dollary in at one point fifty, it makes traveling to the
country extraordinarily affordable. But it also does I think probably irk some policymakers in the country of Japan, and so we certainly have to be on the lookout for any kind of verbal or physical interaction, intervention into the currency markets if.
We get if they're in an experiment. We saw that with Uaita yesterday at CenTra.
There's going to.
Be an unwinding of that experiment. Are these going to be smooth curves, continuous functions over days, weeks, months, or do you and Robbie and Morgan Stanley Japan suggest that we need to be aware that the failure of YCC could lead to real instabilities.
Well, you know, so why y CC is an ongoing uh program that you know, probably lasts a bit longer. You know, from our perspective, the key detriment to y CC was when it came to the market functioning of the JGB market, the Japanese government bond market, you know. But the good news here is that functioning in that market has improved, and I think policy makers they are recognized as.
I mean, this is really important, folks. There's demonstrably been an improvement there as they've tried to impute inflation into the into the into the mix. If we finally get YCC to turn and we get some form of dynamics I don't understand.
And if we have the combination of Chinese.
UH exported a disinflation, should we be shocked by an Asian disinflationary tendency out the next twelve months.
I don't think we should be surprised at that time. I do think that at the end of the day, capitalism is going to try to find a way of reducing costs, and if that's moving some production to the country of Japan, which we've already seen in certain sectors of the global economy, then we should expect that to improve pricing power for consumers as they get alternative sources of production for goods and services.
On a macro basis. Are you optimistic and equities end of the quarter? I know, you know Allen Zenner loaded the boat on equities here.
You know in January you.
And I didn't, Matt, But can you be optimistic about the ownership and acquisition of equities here forward?
I think we can be relatively optimistic because but you know, when you're talking about Japan time, which is where we began the conversation, you know, equities in Japan look very attractive to us as well, So when you're talking about capital being exported out of Japan, let's say to the United States. I would say that's probably a bit more difficult of a move, especially with dollar yen, you know,
approaching one hundred and fifty. That's something that people will have to think long and hard about because equities in Japan look attractive as well.
Matt Hombach, thank you so much. A clinic there on Japan. He is with Morgan sounding at least aw someone joins us right now Investor Strategy to champion Morgan Global Wealth Management. I love, love love your note because it's for all the people out there, and you know who you are that don't own Apple. And what you're talking about in your note is you have to rebuild an equity portfolio? How do you reconstructuit?
Easy?
After I'm up two percent for the first half and that's not good enough?
That's right. We are very focused on encouraging investors to start rebuilding the equity exposure that they want to carry with them through the next cycle. And big reason for that is that when we look at our anonymized kind of aggregate client data, it shows us that half of our clients own less equities than they did a year ago. So right now, rather than focusing on broad index valuations which are above their long term averages, we're looking for
those pockets of value. And it's encouraging that if you strip out the seven biggest names, you actually find that the rest of the S and P five hundred is training below it's ten year forward looking price earnings.
People.
This is important, folks.
I mean Marvin low In from Stay Street, which is a different remant than JP Morgan Global Wealth Management, but you've both got the same message and that people really aren't participating. They're in cash, they're cautious, they're nervous. Is buying a consumer like General Mills up no nine percent dividend increase yesterday, or proctoring gamble or name other things
we never talk about on this show. You've got to hold people's hands for them to buy four hundred and twenty two shares odd lot of proctoring gamble.
To some extent, right, But we are focused on different opportunities, certainly within the active management space, but also things like the overall composition of their allocation. We do think that leadership in this next cycle is going to look different than it did in the last, we're more focused on some real economy sectors, but complementing those exposures with these innovations that are kind of bubbling up, like artificial intelligence,
of course, and really looking for value right now. And we're seeing that in other areas beyond just large cap equities, think US midcaps, think international equities, although our views there are shifting somewhat, and also complementing that equity risk exposure with a core bond duration position.
I want to get to the leadership of the next cycle, but I want to start with that call that basically
you're helping investors rebuild their equity positions. Really interesting because coming into twenty twenty three, this was built as the year of the bond, fixed income actually has income attached to Now midway through the year, it feels like it's kind of turned into a game of catchup, where those investors who had bought into the Year of the bond are now trying to catch up to that equity rally.
Yeah, and for us, this call is not about trying to chase a rally. It's really about remembering what it is we hire stocks to do in a portfolio in the first place, and that's to be the engines of long term capital appreciation. If we zoom back out, I think this cool down and volatility that we have seen is giving us an opportunity to kind of reassess and
move forward with cooler heads. So when I go back and think about something like our long term capital market assumptions, which suggests that over the course of the next ten to fifteen years, you're still going to be able to annualize total returns of seven and a half to ten percent inequities, It's like, why not now, especially when there is value to be found in the market.
I love Lisa.
In short terms, ten to fifteen years, it's a different.
Out, got it.
Well, let's talk about the leadership of the next ten to fifteen years of this next cycle that you mention. It's not going to be the previous leaders which is big cap tech. But when you think about some of those smaller companies, those mid sized companies, what's going to be the AI moment for those companies? You think about what's powered I just.
All these kids in their aizeitis. Here's my AI, got a cut packard computer on my iPhone?
Yeah, continue zeitgeist.
Yeah.
Well, in any case, I mean you think about You can make a lot of arguments about valuations on the fangs, et cetera, but still it feels like almost we had a reset when you think about again that AI moment.
Indeed, and I think that leadership and kind of that theme will trickle down into some of those smaller cap companies. We're focused on the mid cap space rather than small caps because we do see a better valuation there, But looking forward towards the next cycle, I think we have to remember that playing AI doesn't just require picking out the enablers of it, but really thinking through some of the cross sector applications, whether that be you know, establishing
factors of the future or rethinking supply chains. So you've got to kind of expand your purview and think about all of the different types of disruption that this could potentially buried.
In a note, there's way too much ex this and X that, but X this and X that. Where JP Morgan coming up with is if you take this out, take that out, take stupid AI out, take Bitcoin out, and the rest the market's trading in a fourteen point eight multiple.
One hundred and twelve.
Percent of our audience doesn't agree with that statement. Give me an example of a sector group that's trading at a shocking multiple from twenty years.
Ago, at a relative discount. You mean, yeah, I mean for us that's midcaps.
That's Northwestern talk. I'm just talking cheap. She's talking a relative discount.
Continue.
Sure, so midcaps is a perfect example of that for us. You can play a lot of the same themes that investors are getting very excited about. But rather than fish in this overvalued pond, look at an area of the market that is more fairly so.
I can retail Walmart's ridiculous. I'm sorry. I look at the single digit revenue growth the Walmart and I go to get it. You're looking at, you know, as a generalization, and given Walmart in MidCap.
Sure, I'm not supposed to talk about single stocks here.
I know on television trouble compliance.
Yeah, yeah, you're getting at the right idea.
I'm getting at the right end of this is I'm going down it.
I'm going down it. Why did I get out of that? Save Metherine, give me, give me some help here.
Let's talk quickly about duration, because you also write that now is the time to extend duration. Bill Dudley coming out on the other side of that trade this morning with a great column why is now the time?
Look, I know Powell and other central bankers are talking very hawkishly, that was certainly the case yesterday. But our base case is still that the Fed probably only has one more interest rate hike in their pocket. So assuming that if you get a policy rate that's let's call it five point three percent, our model suggests that the fair value for the ten year yield is about three point eight not a big stretch from where we're trading today.
But if the Fed should hike, you know, additionally, beyond that, for every twenty five basis point hike, that's an additional fifteen basis points of yield on the tenure. So we don't think that right now the entry point is looking too crazy. And our base case is that one year, two year, three years from now, those yields are going to be lower, and so we want to move into that not just for the opportunity to lock in those elevated yields, but also from the portfolio construction perspectives.
Your chod. So this is really really valuable. This is the heart of the matter. Folks.
You don't own Apple, you don't own Nvidia. What do you got to do? You got to rebuild this perfect language, rebuild, reconstruct a portfolio, and takes courage.
To do that.
It's very nice, at least awesome, Bon, thank you so much. Thank you that with JP Morgan Global Wealth Management, kna Haeik joins US now head of Research ednf Man, who's been wonderful about the plectic nature of commodities.
I've got to go to.
Copper is the litmus paper of the system. What does an ED and f Man call on copper?
Yeah, I mean there's a reason why they call it doctor Copper, right. It is a flagship. It is the bell weather for where the economy is going. And if you look at the copper price to date, it's been less and spectacular. This was despite fundamentals being fairly bullish, very low stocks, historically tight stocks. They were expecting China to come and really sweep up demand and it just
didn't happen. China's growth has been anemic and unfortunately, despite recent stimulus, it's not likely to grow as much as we were originally hoping. So even into the second half the year, I feel that copper prices could stay languishing at around current levels, maybe a little bit higher, but not too much.
In the modern day, do we have a better understanding of China commodity inventories the idea of actually how much copper they have an inventory? Or is it a mystery?
No, there is insight for sure, but you know, we have to take the data with a pinch of salt. I think if you for those who are maintaining supply demand and trade data, I think you can work out roughly how much China has got left in their in their warehouses. Just by extrapolation from their net export and
net input situation. We we think that they probably are they are okay because domestic real estate and industrial products in China have not been buoyant, and that means their off take of copper has been underperforming quite substantially compared expectations. So I think that is the issue, you know, whether they have stocks to draw down upon or where they need to come to the world for more supplies. I just think they haven't got enough. You know, we have
to wait to see the stimulus. Is there going to be an impact, maybe a lagged one. If they come and they can see some growth and recovery, that will definitely be something which will help, but for now my hopes are not too terribly high.
And when you really dissect the price action in copper, of course, like you mentioned, it's called doctor copper for a reason. Typically, you know, it's seen as this proxy for global growth and the health of the economy. Is that still the message to take or when you look at this price action, is it more technical in nature?
Well, no, I think it is. Actually it's still valid because it's very symptomatic at what's happening in the rest of the world. We're in a high interest rate environment. We've got a lot of flag suggesting recessiony environments later in the year. PMI numbers are all coming down. These are all data points that really fuel the copper market, and they are symptomatic also of the broader wider economy. It's been it's been weak, you know, it has not
been as strong as expected. And this is despite interest rates going up. I mean, I think that's the biggest fear. If interest rates stay high, the demand is going to suffer. There are fears for industrial production. None of this boats well for Chinese sorry, copper demand and also reflective the border economy for sure.
And kinda just broadening out from copper here. I want to get your thoughts on what happened this past week and of course the Wagner group marching on Moscow. It was interesting you saw a bigger reaction in wheat than you did in oil. As we try to track these geopolitical tensions. What is the market to watch here?
Yeah, I think well, Number one, we don't know exactly what the situation is going to be. We had this military uprising. Does that we can putin or not? There are clearly some concerns there. An alternative to putin is something which really the market is not quite ready for, and we don't know how to process that even so I think that's going to be throughout all kinds of things. One thing we know is that oil is strategically important for Russia, So no matter who is in charge, they
will make sure that they need those revenues. Wheat, Russia has a massive crop. It's still heavily exporting the record crop at harvested last crop and they're on track to do another one, so they're going to need that to come out of the country as well.
Color one final, one final question, I really want you to sit on this and spend some time on it. The bombshell of the first half was the IMF call of tepid economic growth globally to twenty twenty eight. Now we've had a disastrous commodity cycle. Someone called a broad, lengthy structural disinflation and commodity we've been searching for a supercycle. We had a leg up here off of twenty twenty and then a pullback withither a broad index of commodity
right now? Given the IMF call, can you give me any optimism and a blended commodity index right now?
I think what you're going to do. You're gonna have to look for pockets of commodities that have individual fundamentals and supplied amount balances for individual markets that will give you pockets of optimism. So, for example, some of the soft commodities where today's El Nino weather phenomenon will mean that supply risks are heightened in the likes of sugar
or palm oil, or cocoa or cotton. On the other hand, the issues we've mentioned before, that doesn't vote well for a broader complex of commodities, particularly if demand is going to start waning. Whether it's the IMF prediction or even worse. Having said that, I think if you look at prices, yes they've come off quite a bit, but they're still substantially elevated from what they were pre COVID. So if you compare twenty nineteen to current levels, requite a bit higher,
and that reflects historically low levels of stocks. So we're not it's not a catastrophe. We are not even a super psycho either. But markets are not as well supplied or to us they were three years ago, and as a result of that, we're not going to be entirely immune to supply shocks. So whether it's copper inventories being low or even core supplies that are historically fairly tight, we're not really available. We're not can't really cope with a big sup.
My shock Coniak, thank you so much, greatly appreciate it. With Ed and f Man alluding to some of what we heard from Wayeley and black Rock, Shehanali bask Our Bloomberg get the most boring guy at Morgan Stanley correspondent, who is this guy, mister whiff w ipf And we don't hear from him because he's not a slick investment banker is he.
But not boring at all. As you know.
The reason he's so well known is not Morgan Stanley. Is this grateful dead cover band and so well. It's interesting here about his move over to Credit Suez. Kalahar, the chairman of Credit SUITESE is known on Wall Street, known at Morgan Stanley for having one of the most loyal bases of people who have worked for him. That is something he's always understood. Now to bring over Tom Whip from Morgan Stanley after almost four decades to help lead this transition.
Remember the complications here.
Is not just a matter of bringing two behemon banks together, but making all the businesses work together. Something Morgan Stanley was able to do very early on was make the wealth management work with the investment bank and make the investment bank work for the wealth manager. That is something that UBS and Credit Suite have been trying to work forever.
And what's so important to me is Whip had the worst job at Morgan Stanley. I mean this was im men's respect, folks. He's the liboard guy and more than anybody on the street, he's the guy who said the benchmark calculation. I think Mary Poppins, you know their railways to India, the librar funding of everything out there. We're going to stop doing it and we're going to have a new thing, which only Ira Jersey understands.
And the answer is am I correct.
Whip is the guy that led the charge on the migration up and what a boring job.
That's what he's got to do at UBS.
Boring but important and interesting.
He was on the Alternative Reference Rates Committee ARCC, and that committee appointed somebody else from City.
Group to lead that committee as well.
So on Wall Street he was important for the Live or transition more than that. He has such a strong fixed income background for this reason as well. And remember post crisis, UBS really changed the base here of fixed income Exphich. He's at Credit suits and UBS are very very different. The risk tolerance is night and day, and so there are some very difficult decisions to be made about how the combined businesses operate moving forward.
So he's got Grateful Dead, he's got the Live or Transition under his bill. Let's talk about what he's been tasked to do with UBS. Just going off the story, he's going to lead the bank's effort to integrate credit Suites' operations the Americas. When you think about that task versus what's going on in Europe, how does it compare.
Listen, something that was interesting.
People ask a lot about credits use what was left of the investment bank, and the reality is quite a lot. They have a big leverage loan operation. They still had a big trading operation, but it was kind of messy. Remember there was very many hiccups leading into the end there. And so if the Americas as well part of this, Remember I think that the talent story cannot be denied here. They're in the process of cutting a lot of jobs,
figuring out the overlap. Clearly they're bringing people on the people that they need to kind of make this all work for them. And remember UBS in particular, they have a massive, massive, massive wealth management operation. They are financial advisors across the United States, and there's plenty of investment bankers in the US for both banks. So it is it is a large operation in the United States with
a lot of concerns about how they bring together. Like I was saying, those cultural differences and livers tolerance of these banks.
Well, broadly speaking, let's talk about that timeline. As you mentioned, they are obviously acting a lot of the credits suse to workforce. The big news out earlier this week is that reportedly UBS preparing to cut over half of the Credit Suite workforce. We know that they're also bringing people on. Is that the next phase. Should we be expecting more headlines to the effect of who is actually going to get this job done?
Yeah?
And you know, even just in the near term here, the way that UBS is operating is it's kind of a parent company to these two separate banking divisions Credits using UBS. At the end of August, we'll see the consolidated financial results. It's already making me kind of nauseous to think about what that will look like. And so yes, it's a very complicated integration.
But both of these folks.
Both Tom and con Kelleher, have seen difficult days before and banking.
And where do you perceive UBS Credits Suite will end up in New York City? I mean, Katie brings up the geography of this. Let's forget about London, forget about Zurich. I got to believe they're going to maintain Zurich to some extent because of the politics. They don't have the politics in New York. Do they do you there?
Politics and banking everywhere?
Well, but I mean they don't have to talk to mayor Adams about it. You know, it's not Zurich is different. What is this going to look like in twenty four months in Manhattan?
You know, that's a great question because remember I think about this a lot because Credit Sweez was in that iconic Madison Avenue building eleven Madison, and you know, you start to have bankers across the street really just what maybe ten or so blocks away over at UBS on Sixth Avenue. Different culture over there. It's starting to move over. I I even wonder it's going to happen to that least over in the Credit z'z building.
And so yes, I mean they have a massive New York presence. And remember, for for both companies, Credit Switez.
Does not have large wealth manager in the United States, to be clear, Ubs does, but they do have a large investment bank.
I mean in the United States.
What's important here? And you know, you know we're talking to Greifeld in Basset here. I mean they're looking out at the Hampton's, at the lobster role. But I mean this guy with this is a serious deadhead band. I mean, you know, Hell or high Water. They actually play. The guy with a blue T shirt on looks like Jerry Garcia. I mean, he's got the lookdown cold and if we got nothing to do. July third, rockaway Point the Sugar Bowl they're playing. I mean, Shanali, this is Bloomberg reporting.
I think, Reddick, what do you think, folks? Retto keeper of the amex me, you just want.
It to be very honest with you.
I did want to write a story about his cover band, I just never got to it.
Here's a big news patch.
Report July third, on this new guy who's going to save UBS and credit sweet Well.
Last time you got me to write about the piano Bart Davos, I got in trouble for it.
So everyone who writes this is a cardinal.
Everyone who writes about the piano Bart does get in trouble. This is a fact of like. This is to me a huge announcement. And again the imprint here of Colm Keller is extraordinary.
The kind of Morgan Stanley UBS mirroring has always has been a big question. I remember a UBS banker once telling me that they were afraid that Morgan Stanley would want day by Credit Suite.
He said it kept him up at night.
And I remember when I was reporting, I covered both banks for what maybe almost ten years now more. Cohlm would be seen having a drink with clients at the Solme wine bar, which is right behind UBS, while he was at Morgan Stanley. So you know, there's a very close tie between all these businesses. Morgan Stanley was the behemoth, but it can't be discounted that COLMB has a tremendous amount of relationships not only among the banking ranks, but also among wealth management and wealth clients.
Twenty seconds, we're into the weekend, the summer begins. How grim is it out there in Wall Street, Manhattan?
The idea that UBS Credit Suite will be cutting that many tens of thousands of jobs at the same time as Goldman and GP Morgan and City Group are doing multiple rounds of layoffs is grim.
There is very little capacity to bring on new bankers on Wall Street.
Great reporting by Alexandra Harris at Bloomberg. HERA, mister whipp if I hope I'm pronouncing that right, He's gonna have a getaway, not an Alabama getaway. He's gonna have a Zurich getaway to help ubs bring in credit suite. Subscribe to the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast on Apple, Spotify, and anywhere else you get your podcasts. Listen live every weekday starting at seven am Eastern on Bloomberg dot Com, the iHeartRadio
app tune In, and the Bloomberg Business app. You can watch us live on Bloomberg Television and always.
I'm the Bloomberg Terminal. Thanks for listening. I'm Tom Keen, and this is Bloomberg