Surveillance: MTA In Desperate Need, CEO Says

of our transportation. That can be DFW and Dallas. That can be the airlines out west, the railroads coast to coast amtrack even or it can be the m t A. The chairman and CEO is ex Scott, and our Pat Foy joins us right now. Pat, you're listening to the dialogue in Washington on the Foyd desperation Meter. How badly do you need federal help after the writer's shortfall you're

seeing on the desperation index. We're in a we're facing a fiscal tsunami, once in a hundred year fiscal tsunami which has left our infrastructure intact with demolished of our revenues. We exhausted, and we exhausted on Friday, the last of the CARES dollars that we got several months ago. That was about three point nine billion dollars of funding. We need an additional three point nine and these are shocking numbers to get us through the remainder of the year.

Our revenue sources are come from our customers, affairs and tolls. Those are down precipitously, and the remaining half of our revenues comes from a dedicated package of taxes and subsidies which are economically sensitive. In those two are falling off a cliff town. Do you get a feeling Washington and different flavors, including a gentleman residing above the Gucci store on Fifth Avenue. Do you get the feeling they're saying New York up dead? I I hope not. I think

we'll find that out in the in the weeks to come. Clearly, states and cities around the country, including New York City and New York State, or in desperate need of funding. I'm here to talk about the m t A today, and the m t A is in desperate need of funding. The m t A is not only just a mass transit agency, it's frankly the circulatory system of the New York City regional economy, and not funding the m t A will stunt and thwart economic recovery and job creation

all over New York. Well, give us a sense of that scope and scale. I mean, we understand the subway system, the busses. I give you major credit for showing the decline in ridership numbers right up front on your website, But give us give our viewers and listeners worldwide a sense of the geographic reach of the m t A. It's not the Five boroughs, is it. No, it's beyond the subways buses in New York City, five earls Long

Island Railroad goes out NASA and Suffolk County. Metro North covers Westchester and North as well as part of Connecticut. And we've got a small operation that New Jersey Transit runs for US west of Hudson UH In a technical day pre pandemic will carry well over eight million passengers. Pre pandemic subway ridership average weekday five and a half

million customers right now one point two million. That's up substantially from the depths of the pandemic, but a fraction of the numbers that we would carry on all of those agencies. In my anecdotal and his, folks is real simple. I was thunderstruck how empty New York City was this weekend, Like I've honestly never seen it in my time at Bloomberg and PET four. You're living with this, with the empty office buildings of Midtown and there's all these other

stories as well. If you get that aid, what do you do with it or do you have to begin thinking about firing thousands of people. Well, Tom, here's what we're gonna do. I'm cautiously optimistic that we're gonna get the funding because frankly, it's in the interest of the nation to fund the m t a UH to help bolster New York City's regional economic recovery. That's in the national interest. The pandemic is an international and national challenge,

and it requires a national solution. So I'm postiously optimistic that Washington is going to do the right thing. But without funding UH for the rest of the year, that's what we're talking about. To get us through, decline in revenues has been that precipitous. We will have to consider things like wage freezes, like service reductions, like head count reduction, delaying or deferring the capital plan. We have an historic fifty one and a half billion dollar capital plan that

was approved a year ago. We've put that on pause. None of us wants to replay the movie from the seventies and eighties when MTA didn't infest in subways and buses and service to climbs. Pafoy, We've got some breaking news here. Some gonna have to let you go, but we'll monitor is carefully. And of course the m t A folks with a huge reach in New York, we welcome Bloomberger eleven three oh particularly listening to this swarny. Mr Foys, chairman and CEO of the mt AS put sweets.

And they have a wonderful chief economist. His name is James Sweeney, with terrific us and British academics. James Sweeney was brilliant a few years ago saying the disinflation and deflation gloom of Europe a few years ago was off the mark. He joins us this morning with a different view, James Sweeney, our service is going to cave in and joined goods as disinflation and deflationary items. Well, right now, services have joined goods with this collapse and activity, but

it's been driven by shutdown. Now we're rebounding because there's some activity turning back on. But I think if you look beyond this rebound, the fears should indeed be toward weaker inflation, including in services, given a very uncertain path for unemployment and potential for pretty elevated unemployment deep into two thousand twenty one. How have you adjusted your GDP for the United States of America? Give us a view out twelve months or dare I say even at the

end of this year? Well? Yeah, I mean again, the rebound is formidable because when you turn the lights off and you turn the lights back on again, it does crazy things to the data. So what we're seeing now is an incremental slowdown in the US because of increasing infections in the summer. But you know, we're still forecasting a very strong, basically double digit increase in Q three g d P. But what you have to remember is that the level of activity is going to be well

below trent. So you know, if we have GDP contracting you know, five percent six percent this year, Um, you've got a big cold. Help me with a folk trio MC McConnell, Minution and Meadows. I'm sure they're watching right now. James Sweeney, what's the American all in unemployment right now? The U six it's over, isn't it. Well, that's a that's a fake number, because that's telling you about how many hourly workers are getting zero hours during a period

of shutdowns. But I think the real number is probably closer to ten than five. And that's a big problem. And in six months, even if there's a vaccine around UM, if that number is still real number is still closer to ten than five UM, then that has real implications for the for the FED, and and and for growth and for inflation pressures. Let's talk about the latter one. Inflation pressures, as you point out, will be the low capacity for a sustained period an extended period of time. Yet, James,

there's a conversation drifting into inflation away from disinflation. Inflation reexpectations started to pick up, James, from your perspective and your conversations. Why, yeah, Well, it's actually a very popular conversation among equity investors, not so much among debt investors. But the view is basically, you know MP two money supply in the US is up three trillion dollars. Bank

credit is up just under a trillion dollars. No Treasury debt is up, you know, three trillion ish FED balance sheets similar, Um, surely this is inflationary down the road. Not so surely It's possible, But inflation is a forward looking phenomenon. It depends on expectations later on. It depends on whether the FED responds to incipient inflationary pressures. A lot of good things have to happen first in order

for us to get there. So, um, so I think the focus is it needs to be on, you know, on exactly that European situation that I've been not expecting in the US for a long time. But the odds that inflation gets stuck at a lower level are elevated at the moment, and I think the FED is going to be focusing on that, and I think we're going to see policy actions over the next six months that that confirm that fear. James, we can talk about the

policy action at just a moment. Can you just walk through our audience the relationship between money supply and inflation. Just how tied does that relationship being or not over the last ten years, the last twenty years poor, not good, not not a good relationship. And again um with with interest rates. So low bonds are not necessarily a great

attractive alternative to cash in the bank. So if if cash is being created in deposits are being created, you know, I may not want to put those in fixed income securities. I may not want to take the risk of of equities, and so the deposits don't go anywhere. I mean, in the short run, it's nice that the stimulus has has gotten cash flow into a lot of especially you know, lower income cash constraint workers, so that they can pay

their bills. That's extremely important. But the idea that this money is going to circulate at a high rate and risk and and really grow aggregate demand in a way that will quickly be inflationary, uh, seems pretty far fetched to me. You're just joining us Bloomberg Radio, Bloomberg Television, John Farrell in Time, King James Sweeney with us with Credit Sweetzer, Chief Economists. Lots of really good conversation this morning, centering on Washington and our fiscal policy, along with Marcus

Futures up seventeen now up thirteen. James Sweeney. All that's fine, But if I get a James Sweeney economy, what does four trillion in debt due to it? I don't understand the dovetail of saggy nominal g d P, you know, okay, kind of like real g d P and a new overlay of four trillion in debt. Well, I mean longer term. I think that's what's happening with the dollar. I mean, I think there are fears about the fiscal path of

the US longer term. So it's driving a narrative both of longer term inflation and you know, positive for gold and positive for break evens and and and all these things. Um. But there's just a very important hump to get over first, and that's the disinflationary pressure of the of the high unemployment. And I would say also, you know, without very high fed purchases, you're likely to see a decent slowdown in bank credit and money supply growth over over the next

twelve eighteen months. Um. And so if you're if your argument is based on those things, your argument may fall apart. John who booked him, We don't do this much gloom on a Monday, James Sweeney, how are the market people at credit suits reacting to your cautious view. The bond guys and the equity guys they're different. How are each of them reacting to this scenario? Well, I mean a

lot of the bond guys basically agree with it. I mean on the equity side, you know, our our house Field and zerich Ar Investment Committee recently went from overweight global equities to to neutral. Uh. And part of it is based on these fears as we as we get into the into the autumn, and I mean neutral is not underweight and and risky assets are of course doing okay um and but you know, looking forward, I think

expected returns have definitely come down. It's on this place into the Golob trade as well, that you'll pay a premium for growth. Jonathan Golub far more constructive on the growth names big tech than most people I speak to on Wall Street. It has been for quite a while. Yeah, And that's to the conversation had earlier with the Licia Levine at b N y Mellon who went the other way and said you've got to go away from growth

right now. I mean, John, these are these huge tensions, all of them secondary to what we see in Washington over the next well, James, not just on the fiscal debate, let's talk about the Fed. They meet in forty eight hours time as well. Just sounds like your positioning now

thinking about the next move. Governor Brain had really really stimulated this conversation in the last couple of weeks when she said we'll move from stabilization to accommodation, and everyone on Wall Street was like, well, what was the last few months about. If that wasn't about accommodation, what does that transition look like in your mind? Well, I think the last few months were about emergency measures responding to the cash flow crisis through the shutdowns UM and trying

to ensure market functioning. And you know, if anything, they've over ensured market functioning. But I think going forward again, it's where does the unemployment rate settle? What does the growth and inflation look like three or six months from now? UM, And I think most of us think that activity is going to be running at a pretty low level, and so you're gonna need more help from from the FED. So you maybe pulling back some of these emergency measures.

But in the short run, I think the Fed may signal that you know, until unemployment and inflation or at exceptional levels, some kind of substantial stimulus is going to be in place. And I think in the in the background is yield curve control as the next big Buzuka to be fired at a time when you're in severe market and growth stress. So hopefully that doesn't show up. That's the that's the big option, James. Aren't we in yield curve control right now? I mean, I'm looking at

a tenure of point five eight percent. How do you control a number that low in America? Well, I mean the fact that the market is behaving as if it's already implemented, ob serves the FEDS objectives like that's a good thing. So what you don't want is the market to start to think they're never going to do this. And so yields is a curve starts to step and yields start to move in a in a in a way that that suggests, you know, tightening of financial conditions.

So um, at some point you know, they may need to formalize this thing, but at the moment, there's certainly no risk. Assets are doing okay, and yields are doing exactly what we need them to do got to catch you. They send up best of the tame chief economists. So we've got a market your folks is extraordinary and a mystery. She's a chief strategist of Mystery of b n Y mel And Alicia Levine joins us. And what's great about a leisure Levine is prodigious academics behind trying to game

and guests a view Ford. Alicia, thanks so much for joining John Amy this morning. Can you buy the marginal share this morning? Alicia? Yeah, but I think you don't buy it in tech and you know the message from

the last couple of weeks. It's really interesting the five large cap tech stocks over the last two weeks, we're down over five and the rest of the SMP was actually up five in the last two weeks, suggesting a broadening of the market and the trade moving away from the parabola like stocks that we've all talked about for the last four months. You can, but you can, yeah, do what I mean to interrupt, but this is so important. Do you rebalanced by selling tech or do you hold

the tech and put in new cash to work? Which is it? I think you have to sell a little tech here. Okay, I think I think that the growth stocks must remain a core holding in an overall portfolio allocation. Simply the US going forward growth will not be strong, will be lower, and so growth tend to outperform. But you know, if you look at it on the short basis, these are parabolas. They don't suggest future gained in the new Yar term, so you know they've gone too far,

too fast. And the forward, the forward comments after the quarters has not been matching what the stack prices have done. So I think you pull a little bit out of Teck. And that's what we saw in the last couple of weeks that people just sort of shaving, not not really dumping, but shaving. And that makes sense, you know, because that's what you do for rebalancing. You sell your winners and

you kind of reallocate. Tom And that was the last time you interrupted someone with that, meaning to interrupt them. Um No, Nixon. Nixon was back to Nixon at least I know you're used to Thanks for being with us this morning. I know you can handle it. I'm not worried about you, Alicia at all, in any way, shape

or form. The rotation away from tech, let's continue that conversation because a lot of people come on this show, you know, Alicia, and they talk about rotating out of tech but into the cyclical areas elsewhere m Asia, China, Europe much more so it's there an argument to stay US based. So I think, look, it's really interesting right now. The rest of the world is recovering faster than the US.

So we see it in the industrial production in China, we saw it in the data coming out of China in the last week, and we saw it last becoming out of Europe and the t m I. So the rest of the world is recovering faster. The only thing I'll say is that the valuations tend to get higher in the US. Must I think you definitely have to have an allocation to Europe. But the softer dollar does argue for cyclicals here in the US. That's going to be the bedrock of and some of these stocks. I mean,

so your software dollars helping these multinational companies. And by the way, multinational companies are exposed to the recovery overseas, So you know, you have to stay in the US. But I think Asia is great, and I think Europe looks it looks like a nice trade here. Well, Lea, let's continue this conversation. Then. Is the weaker dollar a symptom of the foreign inflows or a driver off them?

How do you frame that for clients at the moment. Well, that's a really great technical question, Thank you, Jonathan Um. I think I think it's it's a symptom, and it's a symptom because let's let's go back to the first first basis, right, first stasis is the path of the

recovery is going to track the path of the virus. Okay, and what we've seen in the last sixteen at the path that the path of the virus is exploding everywhere in the US, and so economic activity is flattening and so there it's not happening in other regions of the world. So therefore they're recovering fast. We're flattening s. The first problem in the labor markets last Thursday, where the claimed data win in the wrong direction for the first time

in sixteen weeks. So we're gonna start feeling it here and I think this office dollar is a reflection of that. Not to mention, not to mention, yields are so low and we've got negative yield as you were talking about all the learning long So I think I think that the week or dollar is a symptom. Or is dividend and dividend growth a proxy for yield right now? Yes? Yes, um, Look, you know it's interesting only sixty two companies in the

SMP have actually cut dividends. I would have thought that would have been more, and it's interesting that they haven't. And part of that is due to the support from the FED supporting all the different levels of bonds here, you know, creating a situation where you have enough capital and you can both play paid dividends. Because it's the number of companies that have cut dividends actually less than in two thousand and eight and two thousand and nine,

which I find really interesting. I would not have expected that three months ago. Well come all of you on Bloomberg Radio, Bloomberg Television, John Farrow and Tom Keen, Alicia Levine with us right now. B and why Melan, Alicia, what are you seeing people actually do with their money? I'm fascinating when I talked to you, or saying Lisian Sanders a hub about what the actual action is of people?

What is the action right now? So the action is very defensive, and that's why we remain cautiously bullish on on this market. Nervous but bullish because positioning is defensive. So money market funds, goals, and bonds and investment great bonds, and that's really where the the incremental trade is coming from. People are nervous to buy into this market. And as long as you still have that going on, you have support.

You know, it's it's a it's a contrarian you know view, and and so therefore you know you have support under the market. But positioning is defensive. So let me ask the stupid question, who's buying stocks? Then, um, people are buying. If people are still buying stocks, it's just not running into tech in the same way. I mean the you know, the last couple of weeks as a cautionary sign. That's evaluation do matter ultimately, and you have to take some of the excess out of it. So we are we

are sing buying in equity. It's just as the trade is. You know, the incremental trade still is bonds, gold and and fixed income. Just because we're hermetically sealed here, John and I are in two separate cubicles to try to together, well, you know that's true. That you know, I just did a log chart on Amazon with some fancy moving mathematical averages for Alicia Levine. Come on, Alicia, Amazon, all that's done is fallen back to a very comfortable support. It's

not a correction. It's almost like a pause. I mean, do you buy the dip? Can you buy the dip? In the text of I need to make some money here about nine tenths of one percent west of camp on Nata on the NaSTA in the last couple of weeks. I know we've come back a bit, but hardly. We're still up near old time hist Tom. I don't know. I'm just trying to impress Alicia with my math, and all I see is on a large chart, Amazon's back

to support. I mean, it's not like it's caved in, right, no, so, but look it is twelve off the high so you know that is not you know again, that is that's not a bad that's not a bad entry point for any stuck after your you know, ten to twelve percent off the highs and that kind of fast mover. That's that's fine. We don't think these stocks are rolling over. We just think some of the excess has to come out of it, and charting is a great way to pick your entry point. You know, as I've said before,

parabolus don't make for a great technical charts. You have to wait. Always enjoy catching up with you. Appreciate that your patients this morning with us as well, Alicia Leavin, I'm usually I'm usually saying that to appreciate that tolerance for a certain someone who has a bow time throwing me some parablic It's not new. I do that every day, do that every day. Right now, in this oddest of

baseball seasons, we have to drag on Douglas Cast. Talk to us about the equity markets, talk to us about his brilliant calling Amazon that's working out, and of course a lot of other things as well. Can I Dug Cast, good morning, Good morning Tom. I just um learned that the Marlins home game, we had that on ESPN reported that in the athletic and there's eight players with a virus, etcetera.

And we'll talk about that in a bit. Can we just talk a minute, Doug Cast about someone who never gets print because he's outside the three zip codes that matter, and that is a gentleman pitching for the Chicago Cubs today, John Luster has delivered what everybody's supposed to deliver. You get paid a ton of money, but year after year after year, he's getting older, and you know he's no, no, it's not that old. But here's a guy that had Limpield Paul. No, he's not that old, but he had

you know, Limpolo when he was young. He's got like seven World Series rings. And the guy, you know, with all the negativity about baseball, he's a guy that just delivers it year after year. Yeah, he's fantastic. I like the Cubs this year, actually, but I like the Yankees more. You like the Yankees more, and I know you were telling me this weekend they're starting out. Well, what you really like is Amazon. Joe Felban today typical in the street. He goes up with a extrapolation out to thirty six

hundred on Amazon. Your way out in front of that. How far out are you looking, dougcass I have on Amazon dollar have a five thousand dollar price target in two which I mentioned I think twice last year, and there was a lot of size and disbelief. Um, my near term target was three thousand. I've sold out of the stock of short term because I think the market and the Microsoft and Fang stocks um are going to retreat. But can I just mention something about what you and

John were discussing. You had such an interesting conversation over the last hour. Yeah, John was talking about the band aids of policy and then you guys were talking about real interest rate gold what it all means. I just think that we're in such a fascinating time and financial history. There is today almost a tensil relationship between current real interest rates, which continue to fall, as you discussed, compared

compared with the inflation break evens, which is rising. I just called my power pal, Peter poke Bar and he knows me that break evens on the tenure in a multi monti at one point five. So we have to try to figure out the reason. And there seems to be a growing belief in stagflation. With also the FED pinning rates, we're gonna have still large dewey and we're, as you talked earlier this morning, about a yoelker of control.

But stagflation is not equity market friendly. And I'm going to remind you guys, is that it's time to consider bond convexity, what the risk reward is and fixed income, and that bond investors might be content in picking up pennies in front of a steamroller, but we've learned over history it's dangerous. And finally I'll remind you also then in finance, there's something called bond convexity. It's a measure of the relationship of bond prices to changes and interest rates.

It's the second derivative of the price of the bond with respect to rates, with duration being the first derivative. And so in general to hire, the duration the more sensitive pricect. This is really important. I want you to frame out here some of your bearished tone, Doug Cass, and we do this, folks understanding everybody understands there for a few crises in the business that bonds are typically out front of the equity zeitguys, do you agree with that,

Doug Cass? Yeah, yeah, I think um bonds, as John Farrow mentioned, are telling a far different story than consensus economic and profit expectations are. So Doug, what what do you think the bringing so right here? We've seen the bond market really over the last you know, nine months at least, really tell a different story, particularly as we're coming into the pandemic here. The bonds market really told a different story here. Um, what's the bond market telling you? Now?

The bond market is telling me that the Fed is going to have yield control and that the the economic um expectations and S ANDP profit expectations for twenty one are unrealistic. UM. I think that, you know, getting back to the the issue at hand that Tom mentioned, I think the wise man considers the if the contrary and constantly evaluates and often rallies against group think or what I call groups think. And your question, Paul, I think

that there's worse than expected earnings and economic growth to come. Um. One of the most intelligent strategist is Dave Coston at Goldman Sachs. He's estimating a hundred and seventy dollars for SMP earnings. UM, but that does not take into account of Democratic victory, which is going to shave off probably twenty dollars share taking down to one fifty. And I live at one a shaff for next year, and I don't believe SMP earnings will regain what they achieved in

two thousand nineteen until two thousand three UM. And I think it's also important that UM technology earnings UM may not live up to a very high high bar, because I think there's been likely a massive pull forward of sales, even for Amazon, but certainly for Netflix, Zoom, Uh and Tesla, not in sales, but in regulatory credit, which I recently short it. I should recently shorted all those stocks except

for Amazon UM. We saw in Microsoft Azor the cloud business the rate of growth decellering markedly from six to UM, so weakening economic growth, and we could see the appearance reappearance of bond vigilantes, which we haven't seen since the early eighties. You know. The final thing I would mention is that I think size matters in the stock market, and there have been three outsized industry waitings in the

last UM. Forty years back in UM, energy stocks represented of the SMP, and then of course Exon lost fifty of his value, and then the next two years back in OH seven, financials represented the same and then we know that JP Morgan lost seventy of its value in the next three years. Today Big Technology represents thirty eight percent of the SMP. So I see two comparables, and energy and financials impacting technology, and I started to short

the sector. Doug. I think our listeners as they drive around here are saying, this gentleman is painting a bear market picture. Is that your view? It's my view. But the last time I was on, you know I'm not a permanent bear. The last time I was on, I talked about a rip your face rally. I used the word mother of all short squeezes on market surveillance. I went aggressively long in March when the SMP traded at

two hundred. That was the largest discount to fair market value or intrinsic value based on my calculus that we've seen since December, when I also went long. So now the market leadership is narrowing conspicuously. Stock prices and now are well above intrinsic value, and it's time to short. Okay, But Doug, what does somebody do in a four win cap position and where they don't have time to short, they don't want to just or they just want to

place assets for long term. Are you comfortable there being in small cap value or do you still say just say growthy if you haven't time arising of Let's say you're talking about a time arising, Well, that's like twenty or thirty years. Thank you. If you have a red SOX time arison, you should certainly not modify your positions. But a lot of people listening into surveillance, there are a lot of traders, and traders have time frames of under two years, often under if Robbing, Robin Hood and

the merry men in Sherlock Forest. They have a time frame of a few minutes or a few hours. So it depends on your time frame. If your time frame is under a couple of months, UM, I would forget tina. There is no alternative, And think about said us the I t A cash is the alternative. Nothing wrong with holding cat. What about a longer term? I didn't get an answer. Three years? Five yeah, five years, and I wouldn't disturb investment positions. So you know, the gravitational pull

of stocks is higher yep. And particularly I mean, are you comfortable that this FED is going to remain a backstop for risk assets including the stock market? I am comfortable about that. But um, I think that we have to consider that the fed's balance sheet in two thousand and eleven was about two point five trillion. It's over seven trillion dollars today in the interimentable US nominal GDP only rose by about that means to me, and this is really important. It takes more and more debt to

produce a unit of production. That's a real negative. So Katie bar the doors is the bond vigilantes reappear and all of a sudden, public and private sector um service of debt is challenged. And that's the big black swan that lies ahead. We haven't seen it yet, Charles Cass with us right now, with Doug. It's happened before, it is happening now. It is a bullmarket of vix from eight to and retail climbs on board with a laptop

on the couch. However, it is as well. I want you to speak right now to all the people listening who have been playing the game. Some have gains, some dote. Where are they heading. Well, these Speculus stocks one of my big concerns. They're going to collapse. They always do. I've seen this in the past. Um speculation always takes the same form in every cycle. It did in the dot com era, it did in two thousand seven. It's

doing it right now. You have low price debt that is plentiful, and you have a new class of buyers in an asset class and the new classes Robin Hood and his merry men and UM. You know that occurred because HUM, for a number of reasons, UM commission rates were pegged at zero after being really high priced and going down as they got commoditized over a period of time. And of course you got the federal government's checks UM, so they had nothing to do. It couldn't been on sports.

So I started betting on stocks. And that's really dangerous. And I have shorted a package months ago of stocks that I considered to be worthless and bankrupt and will mention them. But you know, example would be Hurts. Example would be Hurts where stock some of them already down. But there are a number of concerns I have I've expressed to you in my top ten list of concerns.

I'm concerned that COVID nineteen spreads and fatality of these expand UM we have gutted UM the real estate business, the hotel business, the travel business, airlines, cruise lines, and importantly our educational institutions, which are large employers. And I wouldn't be surprised in the next couple of months we hear of a large, well known university that closes and shocks the markets. Um. The second thing is that this

rift between China is widening. Um. China is obviously playing hardball in the face of a likely loss, and I could see a furious president retaliating. His popularity is falling further so he could lose his composure introduce a number of wild policy shifts, moving further to the right. Um, we had the wire card, um, which no one's discussing. Did you were you short wire card? I had no position in wire Uh. No one's smarter than Jimmy on the short That's true that we can have a large

US fraud which shakes the markets. I mean that happened often in the cycle, Doug. Because of time, we got to leave it there. Also, you need to rest before the Yankees take another victory. I can't believe I just said that. Douglas cast with Sea Breeze and we say thank you this morning. Thanks for listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast. Subscribe and listen to interviews on Apple Podcasts, SoundCloud, or whichever podcast platform you prefer. I'm on Twitter at

Tom Keane Before the podcast. You can always catch us worldwide. I'm Bloomberg Radio.