Surveillance: Market Optimism with Shalett

last couple of weeks. Help us understand the cyclical trade and how you think that's going to evolve in the coming months. Yeah, great, Good morning, Jonathan. Um. Look, our perspective is that, uh, you know, folks have really looked at the cyclical trade and are waiting to see the inflation expectations data signal that reflation in the economy has begun, and we've really seen you know, the cyclicals defensive ratio

track inflation expectations. Uh. To your point, I think this news, um, you know, coming out of the Fed, and you know the market's reaction to it, meaning they are believing uh Chairman Powell for for what he's saying, UH is ultimately going to be a positive catalyst in that regard and start firming up those inflation expectations. UM. I think when you go to full on debt monetization, which is really

I think where we are. Uh, that's the point at which, uh it becomes very clear, you know what the Fed is doing. They're debasing the US dollar, They're pushing down uh, you know, real rates UM, and ultimately the US dollar has to roll over. And the rollover of that U S dollar from what has been uh, you know, just extraordinary heights on a on a trade weighted basis, UH is going to be the one of the things that trigger is um, a return of a little bit of inflation.

And that's all you need here to get those pilicles going, Lisa, what's the dollar going to be debased against? What currency is actually going to gain press prominence versus the green back? Uh? So our perspective is that uh most uh And what I mean by that is, remember that at the end of the day, uh, you know, currencies move uh in in relation to relative yield advantages and relative growth. UH. And while for a good portion of the last three or four years, the US really had a real yield

advantage and a real growth advantage. Um. What coronavirus has done is kind of levels of playing field quite a bit. And what we've seen in the near term is simply a an extension of the fear trade. UH. That's really holding the dollar up in our humble opinion, because when you look underneath the surface, the relative of growth of the US economy UH is really not that much better than what's going on in the rest of the world, and real rates are really starting to come down A Lisa,

I want you to give me the real scroop. You're in wealth management, your legendary in the street. You've seen the up down, You've seen how many how many once in a lifetime crisis, Lisa have you and I had combined? GETU? There's no left over, folks, Lisa, that the textbook says. You know, you've walked into a more E. Stanley office supposed to go there's a sixty split, six stocks, bonds and ten percent cash, because that's what you're supposed to do, Bologny,

what's the actual split right now? Oh? Goodness? So, uh, you know, look, the vast majority of our clients are extraordinarily conservative and have been you know, quote unquote hoarding cash and you know, as is often the case, and we know this from behavioral finance, is a playbook you know, played out to a t uh. You know, a lot

of clients unfortunately, you know, sold badly. They gave into fear and throughout the February March time frame built their cash balances, you know, up to to two times normal. So you you talk about the ten percent being an average, you know, we're running closer to two times that about cash. John, I just want to say it's it's earlier in the week and that's already the phrase of the week that defines my investment past. John. So many people have shared

your cash allocations so badly. Lisa, let's talk about how this evolves. Because you've said that we could see some inflation and maybe that will move things along. We're about to see some real sequential month or month improvement in the next couple of months. We'll get the p M I slid of this week. May should be better than April. June should be better than May. Does that help get

it done or is that just already widely expected. Well, I think the piece that isn't expected is that what we're going to see is a lot of lumpiness between supply and demand because don't forget what we did, is we you know, sudden stop uh turned off the economy, and so the supply chains are imbalanced. Uh. And so while the market is universally discounting uh, the you know, the demand side of things, they're not really thinking about the supply side of things. And the supply side of

things in many cases is going to be delayed. And it's that delay and mismatch and the supply chains that could cause um, you know, some price inflation to creep in as people are willing to quote unquote pay up uh to fill refill their shelves. And uh, you know, I do think we are going to begin to see a pickup in some of those metrics around prices paid,

wages paid, uh, you know, particularly amongst small businesses. So just real quick care, Lisa, what do you think it will take to shift the current mood that policy Trump's the fundamental economic data? Is there anything that could come out, whether it's rising trade tensions or anything else to reverse the shift? Uh you mean reverse or relationary trade? Yes? Um, so look there there are obviously a host of things, um, and not the least of which is the virus itself.

Look right now, UM, we are seeing um, you know, clearly nationwide curve flattening. UH. And that has been definitely something that's the market understands and is embracing. UH. And I think if we were to have any major setbacks on that, the you know, the narrative is still extraordinarily vulnerable to that. Obviously, now is not the time for us to see uh, a pickup in trade tensions, nor is it, quite frankly a time for us to see

a pick it a pick up in political partisanship. UM. You know, one of the things that we need to to members that the major provisions of the Cares Act that we've been talking about is quote unquote you know, monstrous stimulus. It begin to expire in the you know, June July, uh September time frame. We're gonna need some extensions, and we're gonna need some cooperation between here and probably July August before we get into the peak of the

political presidential campaigning. UH. And if we have stumbles and it looks like Washington's becoming dysfunctional, UH, the markets really not gonna like that either. So those would be the three that that We're looking at Lisa brilliant to catch out with you. As always, Lisa shout at that Morgan Standing Wealth Management Chief Investment Officer. I want to go there with the and Shepherdson, but you bring up something John, we can't. Let's slip by. Mr Haldan is respected and

he moved. Sterling explain this to our American audience. Who Andy Haldane is and why when he talks about negative rates that matters. The chief colomists of the Bank of England k figure over the BOE tomb largely considered to be the guy that has the blue sky thinking about what to do with monetary policy. So it's not unusual for me that it was Andy Haldane that was the guy that came out as said, I'm thinking about negative

interest rights. We're thinking about it. Still to me, I don't see the core of the MPC coming along with this just yet. Well, there it is. It won't continue to follow that as well as John mentions on oil up and other things up all this weekend there was a glide pass and cute little charts beginning to show recovery or attempting to guest estimate their recovery and Shepherdson

is expert at discerning this. He's with Pantheon, as I've said many times, they are leading on LinkedIn with the best in charts that you can see out on LinkedIn, and of course their services as well. Ian Shepherdson. There, I guess is going to be a recovery, and it's going to be modeled in the most high frequency of high frequency recovery data will be claims this Thursday. Are we actually see a trend of lower weekly jobless claims? Yeah,

we're already there. I mean the numbers are still horrendous, obviously, but but the trend is decaying by well ten twelve percent a week. So I'm hoping this week we might print something like two point five millions, so down from almost three million last week. Obviously the peak was nearly seven a million, so definitely having in the right direction. We've seen a week after week of of incremental declines,

but obviously still far too high. The very worst week after the crash in two thousand and eight was six hundred sixty five, and here we are today saying well two and a half million. That's an improvement, So you know, all things in context here, it's still terrible, and a lot of people have been talking about an unprecedented policy response, and a lot of the people who have gotten laid

off haven't been receiving unemployment benefits. There's a question of how big of an aditional stimulus package or rescue financing package the market is currently pricing in what is expected, what is likely given that three trillion dollar plan that Nancy Pelosi got past in the House, but it's likely dead on arrival in Senate. Yes, I mean, every everyone knows there's no chance of a three trillion dollar package. It will be somewhere between zero and three. So let's

do some conversated math and one and a half. So timing is, of course everything. I think markets expect that some that a deal will be done over the next few weeks. I think most people are kind of looking through the posturing on the Republican side in the center that you know that they're they're talking to their base at the moment when they're saying they want to pause and wait and see and be cautious all this stuff.

But the fact is there's an election coming up, and I don't think these guys can go back to their constituents and say, hey, we voted against that rescue package and yeah, unemployment still but vote for me. I mean that just seems implausible to me, and I think markets believe that's implausible as well. So yes, a lot of posturing, a lot of grandstanding. There's no chance that that that

whole Democrat wish list will get past the Senate. But I think support to state and local government will substantial. The revenues have collapsed and they're spending a shot up. They have to be supported and probably will see an extension of the enhanced on employment benefits beyond July as well,

plus extra money for healthcare and some other things. But some got a substantial package and it will bring the total amount of support, probably in excess as four trillion dollars, so which is kind of the order of magnitude that

I think is is needed. So getting getting to the right place eventually, absolutely incredible numbers A little bit later this are, in fact, in a round about ten minutes, will catch up with Peter Hayes of black Rock on state finances, and I think there's a real worry that we could get some state level austerity over the next couple of years. Is there something you've considered, well, it

will happen if they're not supported. I mean that that's the point that it is insane to be using the power of the federal government while at the same time putting states into position where their lack of support means that they have to cut back on services and raise taxes im And that's completely the wrong thing to do

at this point. And again it's political posturing from the Republican side here, you know, arguing that Democrats say it shouldn't be bailed out because they've got big pension deficits. But that's conflating two entirely separate issues. The fundamental factors that everywhere revenues have collapsed and everywhere spending has gone up.

And I know the fact is that the large Democrats states are the biggest net give us to the federal government and the normal circumstances, So it just makes no sense to argue that they shouldn't receive federal large s now and they will. It's it's it's in no one's interest to put states into position where they have to tighten fiscal pots. I can't think of anything more. Mad Ian Sheffer's an open question, what are you most focused on?

Within the equation. I mean, what's the you're writing for Pantheon. You go down the left column, you get down the right column. What's the part of the GDP equation that matters to you right now? The big one is the return of consumption or the speed of the return of consumption. Speed of GDP, it's a it's a momentum in consumption, which I think varies depending where you look. So we're clearly seeing an uptick in the states that have opened up.

We get daily data on restaurants and air travel, and that's moving in the right direction. But the really big ones, it's a discretionary consumer spending. It's what's going to happen to the auto market and the housing market, and the consumer spending on on durable goods. You know, as people are allowed to go back into retail stores they haven't spent for the last couple of months, are they going to go crazy or are they going to remain cautious?

And we just don't know. We've got no history that looks anything like this, so we're all in the dark. But I'm quite encouraged by the pickup in in in restaurants spending, in the pickup in air travel it's down. Restaurant air travels down compared to a year ago, but but it was down, So there's been an incremental movement in the right direction. And to me, that suggests people, given the opportunity, are keen to get back out and resume something like normal lives. And that's what has to

happen if the economy is to recover. Well initially, what we'll say is the sequential improvement. Then we have to talk about the limits of the recovery, and that's when the science really comes into it. Some good news just crossing the bloomberg from Maderna experimental vaccines from the company showing promising ear least signs that it could create an immune system response in the body that could help fend off the coronavirus. This according to sampling of data from

a small first human trial of the inoculation. So this is early days, very early days, but promising nevertheless, And I just wander from your perspective, how you would have to remodel the trajectory of the recovery if SIGNS can

do its part, and do its part a whole lot quicker. Yeah, Well, my base case has always been that there would be a vaccine available by the end of the year and in limited quantities, you know, for healthcare workers and vulnerable people, and that it would be available in in in substantial quantities next spring. Now, if we could bring those numbers four just by a couple of months, that would make an enormous difference to the trajectory for growth from I'm

very encouraged by that Maderna headline. But they're not the only one, of course, you know, and there's still that the Oxford group in the UK that reckons they will have a vaccine available in in commercial quantities as soon as September. Well, you know, I believe that when I see it. But the factors that were throwing globally more resources at this vaccine in different places and differ methodologies and we've ever seen before and anything like it. So with a bit of luck, one of them will will

come up with the goods. And I think markets are pricing that in as well. I mean, it's for sure markets are. The SMP wouldn't be where it is now if if markets didn't believe that there was going to be a vacium in a relatively short time frame, even just two or three months difference would would be it would be a massive deal. Absolutely, It's that's exactly where

I wanted to go. Because we're seeing that equity features are not up that much on this news, which I thought was surprising, except for of course Maderna stock, which is at sixteen percent. But how much is priced in? How much are we priced to perfection given the expectation of a vaccine in the near term and policy going the right way of the markets, well, policy a third policy to me is bang on. I'm happy with that. The Congress is getting to the right place a venture.

You know, it's usual diversions. Um. The progress on on reducing the rate of spread of the virus is pretty good, you know, it's it's mixed, but there's not many states now with with rampant outbreaks anymore, so those things are all kind of falling into place. I do think the markets are pricing in fully pricing in a vaccine now. And let's say we were to see some headlines over the next few weeks that a bunch of these these

trials had failed. I mean, that would generate a very rock a few days for markets, no question about that. And I think that tells you that what they're pricing in is a substantial success on the on the vacant before too long. So there is a vulnerability definitely if it doesn't happen that, John, this is too much good news. I mean sooner than that, we're going to see Newcastle beat the Tarts. I mean it's going to be amazing. They've got money. If this deal goes through, well we'll see,

we'll see. Thank you. So probably explain to our listeners one Earth we're talking about, but everyone knows Sandi Arabia taking over Newcastle United, which is Shepherdson's team, you know. I mean they're going to beat Liverpool here within six months, Joel, I've really wanted to do this for ages. Peter Hayes is expert and municipal bonds. He runs the municipal bonds shop from Mr frank Over at Black Rock with decades and decades of experience. Let me start with the general question, Peter,

our municipal bonds avail you right now? The price creator has come back, but is it's still availue where you can pick up total return you have? Good morning, Tom, thanks for having me. I would say yeah, when you look at it, particularly versus other fixed income asthet classes. The total return question is a good one. I think

that's how you have to think about municipals now. I think they have their position because of the sell off that we saw in March and because of the lack of I would call it maybe said intervention and something you don't want to be careful that they did create the municipal liquidity facility, but they haven't done direct purchases like they have for other asset classes. And because of the credit impact of the economic downturn, munis are lagging

on the rebound. So they've done well in recent sessions. Months to date they're up one point nine per cent. But if you're looking at it from a holistic portfolio standpoint, there is some total return value. And the other thing we think of just long term, it's just income, I mean taxes. Hard to see taxes going down here given all the fiscal stimulus. Peter just looking at the landscape here, there's a lot of discussion about in need for rescue financing from Washington, d C. To bail out a lot

of these municipalities. The reason why bonds have sold off so much in deals are where they are currently. What is required in terms of the total number coming out of Washington to support states budgets and prevent a vast rash of failures on on the local side. Yeah, that's uh, that's a really tough question, just because even though we see all these attempts at reopening, will they be successful, will they be reopening at a dent well, revenues bounce

back to where they were pre COVID. There's all these questions. So the fights to say the number is a big one. We've seen states already talk about some of the holes and their gaps and their uh, you know, in totality hundreds of billions of of dollars, So it is a big number. They've done a lot in a lot of different formats, and then we saw the bill and produce lest week for the three trillion dollar number, which a

lot of that is geared to towards states and cities. UM. I think one of the things you said at the end though, is interesting about you know, preventing failure, and this is an issue really of liquidity versus solvency. States and cities can't go bankrupt cities technically ken in twenty six to the fifty states, I think it is there's some mechanism. It's difficult states cannot So there's been some rhetoric about potentially some of the weaker pension states defaulty

you're going bankrupt. There is no mechanism for for that. So I think it really becomes liquidity. How do you solve this liquidity issue, this big shortfull and revenues over a period of time. The Municipal Liquidity Facility that the FED created is a backstop for that should the issuers need it. Remember, they have to provide basic services, that's there their sole purpose, and so the intent of the backstop is to help states and cities to do that.

Um But you know, longer term, what will the numbers look like in November? Will the economy kind of come rolling back? Or is it going to be a slow grind forward? And the slower it is, the longer it is, the bigger that gap is going to be, the more

help that will be needed from Watchington. But suffice to say, it's hundreds of billions of dollars at this point in time, Peter, I'll safe for give me up front because this is not a direct apples to apples comparison, of course, but in Europe, in the financial debt crisis, there was a clear divide between core Europe and peripheral Europe. Do you see anything similar emerging just in terms of red states

blue states in the coming years. So I would say yes, this is the short answer, and to some degree, I think we already see that. So if you look at what the said is done by buying corporates, mortgage fact securities, treasuries, it makes me wonder to some degree whether one of the reasons they haven't bought immunis more directly is it's a big market, bigger than people think, very complex, with the twinning on how you look at it, seventy five

thousand different issuers, etcetera. So how you go about that is difficult. But I think a big part of the problem is the red versus the blue. When you look at kind of issuance, you look at the coast versus Middle America, and I think this is part of the difficulty. You even see the rhetoric around the three trillion dollars stimulus package introduced on Friday, it does become a bit of a red state blue state, and I think that ultimately can be a bit of an impediment. There's a

lot of things that have to take place here. There's sort of infrastructure spending is creating jobs. There's helping make up the shortfall and revenues that we said asked about. So there's all these elements that have to get solved, and we do wonder whether the political difficulty of this gets in the way. We obviously have an election later this year, so we'll see how that turns out. So we might not get a lot of these issues resolved in they might drag on into depending on what the

outcome of the election is in the political landscape. Looks like fantastic to catch up with you, sir, appreciate your time, and you're in aren't a really important issue? Peter Hays there of black Rock. This is our interview of the day on China, Free of Beamish with Pantheon Free and let me just start with a basic question, what is

the GDP run rate right now of China. Well, at the moment we're looking at UM pretty a pretty um close actually to what the It's hard for me do and say though as well, it's it's pretty close to what the authorities have been reporting UM in in Q one at least UM. So we did see a big, big drop quarter on quarter, and we saw a big drop UM year of year as well, and the authorities actually UM came close to to to come and clean

on what that was. I wouldn't get too comfortable with that UM with that position of of kind of telling the truth because in the in the second half of the year, the reality is that the recovery is likely to to underperform. And coming into the two sessions UM that we have UH will have announcements hopefully at the end of this week as to as to what targets

might be UM coming into that. It's it's likely that UM we're gonna start to see more flexibility around those those growth targets UM and that that UM we might even see a two year target being set. So that's going to make things anyway, We're not going to see such a strong signal from the Chinese authorities UM, and and in any case, what we can extrapolate from even if there is two year target UM with regards to UM is probably gonna be higher than what UM what

we're going to see in regality. So for this year overall, UM, the Q one data was such that it's very hard to see how they could recover UM and get a growth of this year. So we think actually that we're going to see a contraction UM to the tune of about two percent for this full year. UM. They're unlikely to report that UM as they said that, the reality is that they will probably they could actually over report UM next so they could actually under report next year.

What mixing Chinese GDP is is volatility UM, so they could they could say growth is higher than it actually is in reality this year and next year they would they would, they would, they would under report. For trying to game out what to believe from China, what not to believe, which data points to take has been something of a cottage industry for a lot of a lot

of individuals. I'm wondering. There was a story on the Bloomberg Terminals today saying that Chinese oil demand is nearly back to the level seen before the national lockdown that Beijing imposed to prevent the outbreak from spreading. I'm trying to understand how important, if this is accurate, how much this is a tell of the economy getting back online versus just the fact that people are using their own cars more than public transportation. For example, simply because they

don't want to be in a crowded place. Yeah, there could be a bit of that, but looking at the the industrial production data overall, that in total is almost back to Q four levels. So this goes back to what we were talking about earlier in terms of this dual chat track recovery UM, whereby the industrial complex is kind of powering back and it really looks like a V shaped recovery and does seem like it's getting back to from a QUE four levels rather rather almost surprisingly UM.

But that's very much supported by the fulfillment of previous export orders and also by the liquidity provision for inventory

build UM in the first part of this quarter. Now that the external demand story is very fast going to drop away from the support UM from the external demand is going to drop away very quickly from from that story UM as we go further into Q two and it's it's it's a big ask for these state owned enterprises that are that are overstretched in terms of debt UM to continue just pumping out productions for to boost inventory when the outlook is so uncertain at the moment,

we still think there will be a good, strong recovery in in two three in the rest of the world, and then China would be able to shift them with that inventory. But at the moment, it's it's still things are still very uncertain. Trust and transparency too, issues that just aren't going anywhere. And you're not the only guest that comes on this program who can't trust the data seemingly coming out of China. The government and the trust here in the United States of the Chinese Communist Party

has clearly broken down again. I'm not sure if it was ever really built back up. There are questions about transparency all the times, not just from the United States, also from Europe, Australia and elsewhere to where is this heading free I'm trying to get my hands around where this is heading. I'm hearing so much from Washington, from Democrats, from Republicans on what they think of this Chinese Communist Party. Words and policy are often two different things. Can you

talk to me about where this is heading? Just in terms of policy, Yeah, well, our our forecasts at the moment are kind of banked on relations between China and the US room main or i shouldn't say remaining, because

they're not in a good place at the moment. But um on the assumption that things have been so bad in the first half of the year that any kind of reasonable politician than we're just hoping that politicians can be reasonable enough, wouldn't want to derail the recovery in the second half UM by by kind of throwing a spanner in the works of global trade. That's not what

we really hear at the moment um. But the thing is, at the moment all all global economies are in a lot of pain, UM, and the best thing to do, or not the best thing in a moral sense, but one of the best policies strategies UM in that case is somebody else, and to point the finger at somebody else. So it's of understandable that at this stage in the game we will be seeing kind of uncomfortable UM noises

coming from from both sides. But when the reality of the situation comes through and there's the there's the the actual prospect of the recovery in the second half, it seems unlikely about when you eat my words, but it seems unlikely that people would want to derail that UM in the second half. Frank, thank you Fry miss of Panthea macroeconomics. I'm going to cut to the chase. We need to spend every second weekend this morning. But Josh

for Sharkstein. He's at Johns Hopkins Universities Bloomberg School of Public Health. I should point out that Mr Bloomberg is founder of Bloomberg LP, this radio and television platform as well, and has been a philanthropist to his Johns Hopkins University. Dr Scharstein, I thought of you this weekend when I looked down upon Central Park and saw that, Yeah, maybe he's sort of kind of like we were socially distanced. But the truth is, uh, there are a lot of

people in Central Park. The whole operation here seems to wrap around masks, Masks of different shades, Masks that are bandanas, mass that are a scarf, mass are just a hunk of cotton. Maybe there's some medical stuff and a very few select people have the fancy N ninety five masks. Give us a clinic. Now our masks are Are they going to be what gets this nation back to work? I think masks will help a little bit um and I think it's a good idea for people to wear masks.

They don't have to be the fancy medical masks UM in order to protect other people. What the masks does is block the droplets coming out of somebody's mouth, and because people aren't sure, they may not be aware that they are infectious, because the symptoms haven't started yet. It's a good thing to wear a mask to protect other people.

But the real thing that protects people is the distance between them, the physical barriers, the six feet, the redoing, the schedule so there are not as many people in the office. All of those things are important. The masts are kind of like the icing on the on the cake, so to speak. Joshua, it's good to hear that the master and icing on the cake. But the idea here, and you see it in the Washington Post chart of a seven day moving average. Clearly the tone is we're

moving to a better place. Where is the place we're moving to. Well, I think it's it's good news obviously that there's been a little bit of a drift down um and I think a lot of people are taking a lot of precautions, which is good, and people have to maintain that. You know, the virus appears to be a little slower to transmit in the heat, so that's

a good sign for the time being. But it also means that we could be getting a false sense of security that we're distancing enough and when the fall hit, it could go right back up again. So I think it's still pretty uncertain right now, Josh, give me a sense of what we know about immunity, right Do we have a clearer sense now than we did even ten days ago about how many people are new So UM.

I think that there's a lot of positive signs and some more recent positive signs that there is evidence of immunity, but the case hasn't been proven. And so the positive signs include animal studies where the animals get rechallenged and don't seem to get sick again. UM, the fact that they really aren't compelling stories of UM, and you know, scientific investigations of people who have gotten very sick twice with different strains UM. So that I think more evidence

will come out. But we're going in the direction that when people are sick with the coronavirus, they may have less of a chance of getting sick or some period of time. And that's good for a lot of different reasons. Now, that's a little bit different from saying we know exactly how to measure that, and so the tests have to be really calibrated with that. UM, So I think we're getting UM a little bit more optimistic that such immunity exists.

We will be able to measure it and that will be good not only for some people's knowledge about whether they're relatively protected, but it will be good also as a sign for different kinds of therapies. It makes it hopeful that maybe the convalescent serum will provide some protection. And of course UM with immunity, with the fact that immunity does exist, if you know, once we know that for sure, that would be a good sign for a vaccine. Josh, when do we find out whether contact tracing is really

effective in protecting people? Well, we know contact tracing is effective in general. The question that we need to know is whether the United States can launch programs that do it well. And depends on training. And you know that Johns Hopkins training course now as over a hundred and fifty thousand people enrolled, which is great. It's pretty online, UM, but a lot more is needed because these programs have

to be run very well. You have to be able to find contacts quickly, you have to be able to support people in quarantine, get them food if they need it, get them other supplies, move them to a different place if they can't safely quarantine at home. These are the requirements that have been successful, been implemented in other places.

If we can do that well, it'll really matter. Joshua, it's unfair to ask this question, but it's so emergent right now, particularly for the Midwest, I thought i'd ask it. I don't want you to comment directly on the Panhandle, but in Texas, where they're really starting to open things up, there seems to be a focus on Amarillo, Texas. Are we going to see a lot more of these are? You know, I don't like to phrase hot spots, but statistically, are we gonna see these flare ups around the country?

Unquestionably we will, and I think particularly as we open up there just a lot of risks. And you know, we saw just one choir practice at like sixty people

infected and two died. We're gonna see situations where, you know, people who may not realize that they're sick or feel my leal and don't think in a million years it could be coronavirus, go out, they're not wearing masks, they get too close to other people, and we're going to find out that it's still a virus that has tremendous capacity Dark Sharkston, thank you so much, Joshua Sharkstein with the Bloomberg School of Public Health JOHNS Hopkins at University.

Thanks for listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast. Subscribe and listen to interviews on Apple Podcasts, SoundCloud, or whichever podcast platform you prefer. I'm on Twitter at Tom Keane before the podcast. You can always catch us worldwide. I'm Bloomberg Radio