Surveillance: Market FOMO With Levkovich

US equity strategist, to bu us, what happened? Did you not get Friday off? I'm taking a different Friday off, so we're taking a different Friday off. Unfortunately, scheduled a bunch of things to work today, even though Mr Corbette was kind enough to think so, including getting up early for you guys. Well, it's advice. We appreciate it. Thank you very much. Would it be fair to say that you've been a little bit more skeptical of what underpins this rally in the last month or so, Well, right,

I'm more skeptical about the continuation of the rally. I know what kind of us underpinned this rally. It's been you know, the exiting of the great lockdown. It is the better news on the healthcare front, and certainly stimulus, both monetary and fiscal, that started kind of in the latter part of March into April. So all those things

are combined. And then there's been what I call this overlay, uh not FOMO, not fear of missing out, the behavioral overlay of what I call FOMU, fear of meaningfully underperforming. So as the market has turned, investors have felt compelled to deploy cash and be part of this because if you know, to quote New York Claudo, if you're not in it, you can't win it. Um. So I think a lot of investors have been kind of chasing the tape fear of being left behind, and potentially that's career risk. Yeah,

it's career risk. I love how you put that to bias, and it's just so so important. It's May, and I guess we've got to get to December. How far out are people expecting that, you know, the academic rules six months. I don't buy for a minute. How far out is he expecting right now? So a lot of people are talking about earnings and even two earnings. How long does it take for us to get back to where we were in twenty UM, and I would argue that we're

probably pricing May of one at this point. We do think the marketing go up to about one sixty on the SMP by middle of next year. So we're almost there if you want to think of it in those during five six percent away um. But we've done it really, really early. And again I do think there's risk here. It's a bumpier road to get to that target. Well, I get that, you know, you had at whatever bounce off the March low, So yeah, from here it's it's

more challenging. But the great challenge to me is you've got to move forward looking out there but being buffeted by the news. How do you withstand the volatility in day to day shocks is you look out to May of two thousand twenty one looks I think from a portfolio perspective, people are will think about bar belling it um. They'll take a little bit more risk on one side, a little bit more defensiveness on the other side to make sure that they've got that almost inherent portfolio protection um.

But net net um, we are at the mercy of news developments. Are we going to have, uh, you know, significant outbreaks by exiting the lockdown, are we going to have, um, potentially good or not so good news on on treatments and vaccines down the road. And these are very very difficult for investors to kind of get their arms around. Um. You know, the biggest issue for us probably is going to be how do we get everybody back to work?

And do we see an increase in what I would call populism and protectionism in order for local citizenry to get jobs. Because remember, politicians are not elected by global citizenry. They're elected by their domestic populations, and they're going to have to respond to that. We've got a big election coming up in November, and you know, it's not that easy to just say, hey, well, you know, or for

free trade today, even though maybe that's a better capitalist perspective. Um, it might mean that we're importing things as opposed to building them in here. And I think that's not going to be the rhetoric on either side of the political aisle. I think both sides are going to be looking towards

that job creation element. Uncertainty is definitely the hallmark of and I'm just wondering how hard it is for you to come up with a recommendation for investors given the fact that most companies have withdrawn guidance, and even China is with drawn guidance. No one can have any kind of foresight here. How is it if for you? So, look, I think it's a great point, but I've actually asked that question to some of our institutional investors clients and

asking them, you know, are you pleased, disappointed? You know, management should be providing their best gas at the very least um, you know, with and give you know, caveats. This is our base case scenario. This is our you know, dramatically bad scenario ten percent, whatever it might be once you want them to provide that. And really it's an interesting of responses from from that industrial group and that some of them are saying, look, I want to buy

good businesses. UM that kind of are looking out to three years, not to three months. So I don't really care that they're not telling me the second quarter guidance because nobody really can predict how that it could be. Um, but are you doing the right things for the you know, for the business over a longer timeframe? Um? That's in some of the people and the others one the other. So you know, it's not like we really listened to

the guidance anyway. We we use it as a benchmark, but you know, management teams also kind of screw up every once in a while. Well, let's talk about the former group and what they've told you about that within this to buy sick the calacy and the airs of the market that still have serious evaluation damage that hasn't really recovered. I'm thinking of the financials in America now, sweats,

but US, what are those conversations lack at the moment. Look, they'd rather be um in companies that have what you might say bulletproof balance sheets, secular growth characteristics, free cash flow because that's called quote unquote the quality trade. Right. Um,

that's one of the places that everybody's hiding out. And the problem is there's there's so many people crowded into that space, uh, including institutional investors domestically foreign investors who who've had to come to the US in many respects to do this. Similar to back ind when they were buying the dot coms because it was the only place that they really could do it that wasn't available in any great number of stocks in Europe, for instance, so

we've seen that as well. And then there's the individual investor, the retail investor that probably is going into some more speculative areas as well that may not be the right investments, but they're kind of exciting and there they rise rapidly and people feel good in near term UM, and probably you are taking a bit too too great a risk for their portfolio. So that's been the crowded trade. If you believe that the cycle is going to be better over the next six months, which we think it will be.

If you go just from standstill economy to doing something, it's an improvement. The problem is you know what level of improvement, and there's there's a great series of reasons to think the cadence of that recovery is going to be less than thrilling UM. But if you do believe there's a turn, then you probably should be looking at some of these circl colls. UM. It's a little early for it. Probably you're gonna need to cep ms turn.

They usually lead cyclcals by about three months UM. But areas like financials, like even the chip stocks probably makes some sense uh to be looking at because they're pricing in a lot of bad news as opposed to again these crowded, calm, large cap tech mans. But they're not necessarily all tech um that seems are not priced. I would say they're priced for perfection, but they're certainly not priced for bad news. It's a Boss Grice cash out with It's a Boss Lefkovich city. It's fast, thanks for

showing up today and on time as well. Who cares? But Shan is a fantidays growth target everybody expected at front sense sense. There's the tension between the United States and China, and once again things flaring up in Hong Kong once more. Leaving our coverage in Hong Kong has been Evon Man. There's been many coverages in Hong Kong, of course, away from this immediate issue, of course, the protests of months ago, and then really a first mover

pandemic response that we have followed on in America. Evan Man joins us right now, if on what will happen into your Saturday and into your Sunday, do you expect thousands in the street, Well, Tom already hearing tonight a lot of political activists or out in the streets they're handing out pamphlets educating people about this national security law, and then there have been planned the next couple of days to hit the streets once again. So here we go again. We seem to be saying the stage for

another repeat of last year. And this is a signal that we got from Beijing the NPC that perhaps the mainland patients is running thin. They're frustrated by the months of unrest at a trot the economy. They're frustrated by lawmakers who have failed to get through this legislation that has basically stalled the bills in two thousand and three. With new strategy now is to bypass the Legislative Council,

bypassed the legislative process altogether. And they're still figuring out the mechanics of how this is all going to work. But you already here the pro democracy side saying this is the end of Hong Kong. The status of Hong Kong as an international city will be gone very soon, and this move by Beijing threatens the One Country to

Systems framework. China, though, continues to defend this law, saying it's absolutely necessary and this is something other countries already had seek to have equity markets shaking this off in the United States. Futures term positive in America, but they certainly weren't shaking it off on a Hang sang if on my question as follows, and I think the answer might be obvious just China actually value the special training

status that Hong Kong has. Well. I think what we're trying seeing here, Jonathan, is that us TV think has been threatened not just with the rising unemployment that we're seeing in the mainland from the COVID nineteen l breaks, but there's also a potential big loss that China could see in in the Hong Kong legislative elections that are set to happen in September. So the Communist Party now is deciding that so HAPs they have more to gain by actively asking decisively to try to put down these

threats for now. And they're basically sending a message to President Trump that we can do whatever we want with Hong Kong. We're not scared to consequences, and this is a domestic issue essentially. So at this point, you know, we heard from President Trump saying that they're going to address this issue very strongly. They threatened to renege on the Phase one trade deal, but withdrawing that Hong Kong

special status. We were speaking to experts saying, if they do so, this actually punishes Hong Kong more so than China because essentially you're putting the city into the hands of the mainland because you're just astilating what their plan has been all along, is to absorb Hong Kong and

make it another southern city in the mainland. Van, Can you just elaborate a little bit more the idea that Beijing feels like the US perhaps won't be able to respond and full will be distracted by the economic backdrop or already has shown that they are reluctant to do more. Is that the reason for the timing as to why now? I think the reason why now is is two fronts. Yes, perhaps they're saying we don't really care about the consequences we perhaps we we dare the US to kind of

class back on what we're doing right now. But it's also, i think also a domestic issue because they're seeing that there are more benefits to actually stemming this unrest right now. And of course we have seen this unrest decimate the economy for for months now that they need to put an end to this. So you do see those on the pro government size same. Perhaps this is encouraging news that we do need to finally put an end to

the protest. UH. And President she is trying to show a bit of strength here in the midst of what he's been dealing with with the U S, the back and forth about plowing fingers and blame him on who who is to blame for this start of this virus, also with the trade tensions as well. So I think this is the Paul and the platform NPC to really show that strength. What will how will that strength be imputed to Hong Kong in the coming days? I mean, do they show up with military on every corner? I

don't see that, Ivan. But what's the next step to show force or power Beijing on the streets of Hong Kong. Oh, we haven't seen that yet. As you said, Tom, But this isn't just about the National Security Law that we just heard from from Beijing. UH. There's also a lot of issues that the Hong Kong is also facing as well, especially with this National Anthem Bill which the Chief Executive,

Carrie Lamb has been pushing for. This legislation to go through this basically criminalizes anyone that makes fun or threatening the national anthem in China. So these are the reasons why people are telling, or at least the pro democracy side is telling demonstrators to hit the streets once again. And now that this pandemic in Hong Kong, the outbreak has stabilized quite substantially, I think people are feel a little bit more comfortable of hitting the streets once again.

We've already seen some social unrest, some gatherings in malls in the last couple of weeks or so, so we hadn't seen any response from Beijing yet in terms of action on the streets per day. But we've seen that fear bubbling once again. I mean we saw when it came to VPN downloads, we saw that spike among Hong Kong residents in the last twenty four hours or so, and then even Google searches for migration that shot up

in Hong Kong on news of this security law. If I can only imagine what it's been like to live in Hong Kong over the last year, it just must be so tense constantly over several issues. If on my thoughts with you truly Ivon Man from Hong Kong on the latest she's senior vice president. You'll curve control for two D securities. Pre a misread joins us right now in your textbooks. Was their yield curve control? There wasn't. There wasn't an unprecedented shock in uh, you know, economic

activity either. But I think what's very clear that this is an aggressive, creative central bank. I would say globally, but certainly with the FED that's looking at other tools, and so they've addressed yelk of control. I think Brainard has brought it up in the past, and then we heard from by Check Clarity as well. I think they might have no option but to go into yield of control.

But I think the market is not testing them right now, so I don't see it imminently, but by year end, if the market continues to price in hikes in four or five years, I wouldn't be surprised that they actually just slammed the yelk of down, and particularly as as supply is going to pick up with I guess additional rounds of stimulus. It's pre in some ways they already have.

I mean yesterday at four thirty pm Wall Street time, the FED released their balance sheet assets, which have climbed beyond seven trillion dollars, just to give you a sense, up from three point eight trillion dollars back last year. I'm trying to understand how they're going to use their balance sheet to suppress treasury yields while also engaging in an accelerating corporate debt et F purchase program. I mean, is the emphasis going to be on treasuries? Are they

going to emphasize expanding into new assets? So I think they're absolutely going to use all of those facilities and maybe more putting three facilities um to sort of you know, keep credit going. But I think they'll have no choice but to buy a lot of treasuries as well, because even if you think that they do yield of control, they can pin the front end, but to try and look at the tenny and the thirty year, that pinnie

is not that strong. So I think they'll have to buy treasuries that we're actually expecting that they'll be buying all the way up until the end of one. We have the balance sheet growing to a max of twelve trillion by the end of next year, which will which is you know, making some assumption about additional system stimulus. I think they might be able to lower the amount of treasuries they're buying in the front end the zero five years, because if they've told you they're not hiking rates, well,

then I'm happy to hold the five years. Anything beyond that, I think they're going to be the marshal buyer of treasuries out there. We'll pretty of Nowaday, this is two very very different policy decisions. If they just turn around and offer Canada based guidance and say the policy rate remains X for why a man of years, then the front end is already there and there's actually not much quie they might have to do to support that whole policy.

That's just a that's just a supplement to Canada base guidance, which is something Vice Chair Clarada talked about yesterday. But if they go out to the ten year, if they do what Japan has done for me, that's a game changer in the treasury market. That requires far more heavy lifting, a lot more work on behalf of the federal reserve. Now are you saying you expect the former to happen or do you expect the latter to happen. I expect the former, so I think the yelk of control will

be maybe three, I think max five years. I think when they talk about four guidance impact is really in the zero to five years sector, so they could do yelk of control all the way out to the five years. I agree with you, I think going out the curve in the treasury market. I mean, the bug did this. They did hold a very large amount of jgbs, but the U S treasury market is not the jgb market, So I don't think they take the step that far into yelk of control of the tenure, but they need

to continue to do que. I think all they can do is through yelk of control, lower the amount of buying in the front end. But I think they'll have to be involved in the wrong and especially as as the Treasury is shooting a lot of long and bonds. Folks, what pre Misterage just said, there is so so so important. You said, Pria, this is not the Japanese bond market. Now,

each bond market is different. What is distinctive about the American full faith and credit market that doesn't give the FED or others the options that other nations have right, So it's I would say it's the fact that the dollar is the safe haven currency. I think that's the biggest one. Also, we rely a lot on foreign demand to hold on to these treasuries. The j GB market tends to be more domestically helped, so you know, the BOJ owns it, or some Japanese pension fund owns it.

You know, there's not that much of a difference with the US. We've got the dollar, which is the reserve asset, and I think there's really no competitor. I'm not saying that the dollar is the best out there, but to the best among every other option. So I think going into yelk of control, you run into credibility issues, political, you know, lack of independence. I think you're really getting into hairy issues when you start looking at week of

control further out. But I think even now, the market is not forcing their hands, So I think the problem we're all grappening with a very grim message from the FED, but they're not really doing anything new, and the market likes the new shiny tool, which is why negat rate

eaker of control. We tend to gravitate to those things, but rates are pretty low, so I think they'll use this if we start to you know, if equities continue to go to the moon, at some point, rates are going to start to rise, particularly in the long end. That's when I think they use the balance sheet to the fullest and just buy whatever it takes to keep rates law. Let's build on this, because you're right to say the j g B market is not the treasury market.

I wouldn't even call the j GP market a market anymore. Some of these securities hardly trade. The bulk of it is how at the Bank of Japan. But there are some people worried that that is the way the treasury market is going. Doesn't mean it happens tomorrow, but over time, prayer and I'm trying to understand just how much of this federal reserve, how much of this treasury market this feed will actually hold. So you know, they have been lowering the amount they are buying. Um, I think the

aim and they haven't been very explicit. They kept saying it's market functioning. Well, if it was only market functioning driving treasury buying, they should have stopped buying, I would say months ago. The fact that they're still buying is to link you that they're needed, but you know I see them. Well. A big question is how much more supply are we going to get. I think the US Congress is going to do, you know, many more potentially fiscal stimulus plans, so we'll have a lot more supply.

But I think the FED will have to switch it from saying this is just market functioning to financial conditions. We need to keep it low in the long end. I think they might be fifty of the market in the near term. Remember it's still the dollar is the reserve asset. It's just you know, if I were to buy, the front end is very safe for me because the Fed's not about to hide. So I think it will vary across the yek of Pretty fantastic at your thoughts

this morning, Really important conversation. Enjoy the long weekend, weren't you, and send up best to the family. Pretty must for that of the security. We decided on Friday that is incredibly important to find a daughter out there who properly celebrated her mother's eightieth birthday, and that would be Diane's swunk in the great mid West of this nation. Diane, that was lovely your celebration of Mrs phil Phillis Swank's birthday.

Here she cried by the end of the day. So I succeeded in bringing joy to our tears of joy. So that was good to be able to do in a way I didn't expect to written, Yeah, Diane, to get a summary here of the economy and this troubled American economy that you never study this at Michigan. It was never in the textbooks with Professor Gramlett and the others at Michigan. Frame for us where we are right now? We're in May, We're gonna end May and June. That's

Q two. Where are we right now? It's we're near the bottom, which is in some ways, you know, good, in that we're sort of bottoming out. It's bad and that I fear we need to change the way we really talk about the economy. Um, we've gone to such a low bottom with so many extraordinary losses that when we talk about bouncing, opt at bottom as a dead at bounce. Because I'm really sensitive to cat lovers these days, Um, I think it's important that we think it's important cats

in my life. My kids are allergic to them, But I'm not a rat lover. But I did have on an aside um, But I think it's really important how we talk about the economy and context. You know, we're two thirds below traveling over this Memoriality weekend where we were a year ago. Thinking of an economy that's two thirds below where it was a year ago is stunning.

And that's has mobility as we see cell phones travel more across state lines and people you know, getting in their cars more to at least drive somewhere to maybe a national park. This is really important understanding context that you know, even as the economy reopens and we start to see percent increases out there, those will dramatically overstate

the level of economic activity we're at. And that's when I'm very concerned about because it doesn't do justice to the pain that is the ongoing that we continue to suffer. It really is starting to bring up a debate in economics about how to even talk about recessions because this

one is just so incredibly unique. It may be short lived if we don't get a double dip, which is highly possible with a second wave in the fall, but even as the economy recovers, the length of time it takes us to get back to our previous peak will

be um excruciatingly long, Diana. I want to build on this idea of a reopening economy yet an ongoing role of unemployment benefits the idea that continuing claims rose more than expected in the data we got yesterday, and the fact that thirty nine million Americans have lost their jobs in nine weeks, with another two and a half million filing in the previous week, does that tell you something that even now after the immediate shutdowns have basically been

put through and are starting to rise and alleviate that we're still seeing such massive job losses exactly. Well, some of it is lagged because people were un able to get in, but we're not seeing the reopening trigger the kind of rehiring we'd like to see, and I think that's really important. The continuing claims is people finally getting paid that waited for a very long time. People really don't understand the leg in this, and it's going to

take a lot much longer time. I mean, it's just the you know, the space and speed of which we've lost jobs, and people thinking we can just turn that COVID tainted spike it on again. We don't want to drink from a tainted well. And I think that's what

we're dealing with right now. And as we ramp up again, we've seen that whether economies are open or not, whether restaurants are open or not, there is a hesitancy because of the fear of contagion, and until we can deal with that issue the fundamental sense of being safe, consumers are reluctant to consume as they did in the past. It's also important that a third of all spending in the economy is done by baby boomers, who are the most at risk of getting severe um consequences of the coronavirus.

And I think that's very important as well as this big spending group who already is a little more skittish and reluctant to spend that like they used to. This is the generation that defined conspicuous in conspicuous consumption and define debt. They took on debt more than any other generation previous to them. They are now banking the gains from refinancing their homes prior to the crisis. I worry about what they will do coming back. It's a lot

of worries to think about. Diane. One of the things I tracted on the moment, sometimes just in terms of how the narrative is evolving on the economist profession side of things, which I'm sure you can speak to. I keep hearing more of a multi speed, multi stage recovery that we get this quick reopening and this quick improvement off the back of going from quite clearly shut down to reopening, and then after several months the gains fate and then we have to go through this real slog

of trying to improve the labor market. Is that how you see things evolving, a quick improvement and then a long slog after that. I'm not sure how much improvement will get a quick speed of improvement in terms of percent changes off of you know, if you divide by zero, you get infinity, and we're almost zero on the economy when we put it into a deep freeze. So um. I do think there will be some pent up demand that we see come out and you know, some surge

in activity from that, and that is good. The problem is recoveries tend to happen in waves, and can it be sustained and what is the next side of this? Look like factories can reopen, but we've seen even in China. Over all factories are reopen and people are in, but they're operating at fifty capacity because we're in the end is so weak, so even the things that can reopen easily have hurdles in a global economy that's been hit

by a meteor. Okay, I want to go through this exercise, miss Wanka, and I want to do it with great respect for your forecasting ability or the awards you've won. And I understand nobody's listening on a Friday before Moral Days, so it's just you with John and Leasia. There's any take the quarter, annalyze it out and we're like minus thirty eight minus GDP. Right now, go core order by quarter forward? How you perceive it? Like, do we go from minus forty to minus ten? Does the how do

you model out the gene? It's really difficult, but yeah, my my forecast is up more like seven to eight percent, which is a very modest increase after extraordinary decline in the third quarter and then a slowdown again in the fourth quarter as we deal with the second wave. But what's really hard is starting July first, we have cuts in state and local government spending depends on transfers to the States, because that's a major hurdle to get over.

We also have a much more sustained contraction and investment. We've already lost a year to trade wars in business. That's a foundation going forward. So that just why my forecast is a little weaker than some mothers, just because the time Mr McConnell says here, you know round, whatever it is for stimulus is going to be under a trillion dollars, he's nuts, right, It's not enough, No, not

at all. And that's the unfortunate fact is as fast as we're still chasing a moving target, and to wait until later to thee early August, the unemployment insurance will have expired and expansions. I mean, John, I don't want to get in the editorial time out chair here, but every economist agrees with mis swork that that no, we need a lot more money. I think Secondary Manuchin is quickly coming around to that idea, Tom, and I think Secutary Manuchon himself has done a tremendous job of bringing

the whole of Washington along with him. I agree with you that things have really slowed down in the last couple of weeks. I'd be very surprised to see the Treasury Secretary back away from more fiscal stimulus. With an economy and the shape that is in in an election year, I'd be really surprised to see that happen. Dan Swank, thank you so much for joining us with Grant Thort and just an important voice for us, particularly on our

FED Day coverage. He is at the Bloomberg School of Public Health, Johns Hopkins University, and of course Michael Bloomberg, the founder Bloomberg LP and this radio and television platform as well, has provided great philanthropy to his Johns Hopkins at University where you had darkened the door and engineering years ago. Andrew Pekos is there. He is a virologist world known for the social and health impacts of our virology and microbiology. And I spoke to him about the

medical community and their exhaustion the pandemic. It TOOMP has been such a focus of the medical community UM and of people UM. But we have to remember that there are other things that are going on, other health care issues that need to be taken care of. Some reports this week about drops and pediatric vaccination rates U are of course a concern because things that are not getting done now will have implications later on in the year,

maybe next year, in the year afterwards. How serious is Brazil? I looked at the log A glide path yesterday per capita of the wonderful work that the f T is then doing with Johns Hopkins University, and the glide pass of Brazil and Ecuador are really really grim. Yes, you know, the Southern Hemisphere is now getting into its late fall early winter season, so there's been concerns about whether or not the COVID nineteen virus would do better in cooler

conditions and winter light conditions. Brazil and Ecuador are having a tremendous trouble in terms of controlling the outbreak with huge numbers of cases. Other countries in the Southern Hemisphere have been able to control that with very very rigid and active surveillance for the virus and testing for the virus, but several countries in South America are a concern, and the emerging problem in Africa is also of some concern.

Dr becos there are enough testing kids in emerging market economies or is that is that a worry that we actually don't exactly know what's going on? Yeah, I think the Number one worrying in those countries is the number of tests, and then right behind that is uh the availability of good laboratories that can run those tests in

the timely manner. So those two things combined are going to make it incredibly challenging for some countries to really respond well in terms of the testing, UM isolation and contact tracing that are needed to con general this outbreak early and what can you tell us about you know, the end is lockdown. So we're seeing a number of economies, the biggest economies in the world reopening, some slowly, some

less slowly. But given the time lag of people ending up in hospital, when will we have a better idea of the exact situation? And this is one of the challenges with this virus because it takes about you can take anywhere from one to two weeks to show symptoms and you're infectious for about probably seven days UM. The lag between when cases start to come up UM is significant UM. So you're seeing some small spikes and in particularly in states in the US that are loosening their economy.

Some other states are doing a little bit better right now, but we really won't know until two to three weeks from now how these states are doing with loosening their public health interventions. Dr Pegrass one final question. I don't need to be tried about it, but I think it's an immediate question. How safe well the beaches be this weekend? What are your thoughts on heading to the beach? Well, you know, as as economies open up as some of

these uh, social distancing. Uh, well, I should say social distancing should still be in place, so people need to really be careful about keeping their distance amount people when they're outside. It's great to get outside to do some activities to try to enjoy yourself during these times, but social distancing and wearing masks is going to be an incredibly important thing to do irrespective of what your activity is.

And it seems a little bit odd to say that on the beach and stuff, but uh, maintaining social distancing is the critical thing as people try to get out and uh, you know, and and get back into some sense of normal thing. Andrew Pecks at Johns Hopkins University just always wonderful and we really thank the whole team at JHU for their support through the week. Thanks for

listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Subscribe and listen to interviews on Apple Podcasts, SoundCloud, or whichever podcast platform you prefer. I'm on Twitter at Tom Keane before the podcast. You can always catch us worldwide. I'm Bloomberg Radio