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I'll be with us.
Now, let's talk about markets. Cee of cross Smark Global Investments Pop, Good morning to here same. Let's talk about retail sales twenty five minutes away. Are we going to see that resilience in this US economy? This US consumer in the data was set to say in this hour, you just.
Put a lot of good things, the two of you on the table. A soft landing is like putting a thread into the needle and the eye of that needle is shrinking. It's getting tougher and tougher. The com consumer eventually will come to their niece. We always see at the low end. We all see it with credit extension, we see it. Wage growth is strong. How long will it stay strong? And that is just fueled the consumer
and it's fueled our economy. And this thing is kept ongoing despite all the things in the background that you just put on the table, including the lagged effects of the FED gone from zero to five and a quarter. We have not felt all of that yet.
Let's unpack that it will happen eventually. Are we seeing signs of it now? You mentioned credit? You can see it through credit maybe one way. Another way it might be to sit in the official data. We'll see that at the bottom of the hour eight thirty. Another way might be the earnings across those three things right now, credit data, earnings. Are you seeing a slow down?
Not really, It's all lead indicators. The coincident indicators are positive. Some of them are getting a little mixed. It's going to take some more time to go there. We've been since the first of the year saying recession starts sometimes between labor day and the end of the year. Still sticking with that. Think it's it's a mild recession, as many do, although recessions left most people's vocabularies.
You know, but where does that recession come from? If you do see the strength in consumers, and a lot of people have pointed to the student loan issue. And I was reading this article the survey by Credit Karma, and it was showing that forty five percent of student loan borrowers say that they are not going to repay. They're basically going to be delinquent for twelve months because they're not going to get penalized.
For being delinquent for twelve months.
So aren't we basically getting a self stimulus ongoing that will remain in place for a while.
Well, it's been the story, and it's lasted a little longer than many people thought, and it's still not finished. But eventually consumers will come to the realization that things are a lot more expensive. Inflation is still a problem. They have no savings at the lower end of the consumer bracket and that's a problem, and they're going to have to retrench some or find a second job, and they've already done that.
What's the hedge?
What's the defensive play?
At a time A lot one of the strongest companies have incredibly high multiples, and you're looking at bond yields that are not giving a consistent message.
Yeah, I think that within the equity market, you try to focus on companies that are high earnings predictability, high earnings persistence, and are not selling it crazy prices. That's not a whole lot of places. I like the HMOs for example. I've not given up on tech, but I want to be careful what pe I'm paying for my tech. So some of the semiconductor stocks, some of the software stocks, they're not so cheap Visa MasterCard, two names. I still
like they've gotten more expensive. So you have to pick your spots. And I come back to earnings persistence and cash flow generation.
Let's talk about the retailers then, I'm deepot out this morning, Walmart later this week, Thursday, Target tomorrow. Have they still got that pricing power? Can they keep margins pretty steady or do those margins get eaten away out eventually?
And I think we'll see some of that, Like now, those margins get eaten away because you see, companies can only raise prices so far, and you're already seeing consumers begin to make noise and balk and stop buying some things. It won't it won't be everything, but slowly but surely you take the edge off. We have to operate on eight cylinders to keep the thing where it is now and even we back off to six, that's going to disappoint a lot of people with stock selling where they.
Are the winness forget tech cruise lines, airlines. Are we at that point where we've reached consumer price intolerance. They just don't want to pay it anymore.
As you said a minute ago, people are flying around going on an airplane and you know, every seat's taken. So we're not there yet, but we'll get there.
Okay.
So what's going to get us there?
Because everyone's been saying this that the consumer eventually will push back, and then they haven't, and then you go out to eat and it costs twice what it used to. I mean, honestly, this is the kind of increases that you're seeing.
Yeah, so it was subtle. We had fifteen months in a row of better than expected monthly employment numbers. Two months have been below expectations, so their cracks beginning to develop. I don't want to come across as the economy's tanking and you know, want to be a bear overall. I'm just cautious. And I add to it, I said, all right, I'll say it again. If the pe were fourteen, different story.
But you know, at the peak a couple of weeks ago, I looked at my screen on trailing earnings twenty three times earnings.
When you talk about being cautious, what's the ballast if you talked about your equities, Is it cash?
Is it going into duration?
I think having some cash in your portfolio when he yields five percent is not a stupid idea. Have you been increasing it in the balanced accounts where we can in the equity market neutral portfolios, We've been bringing our ex exposure down in there for our cash exposure up. Yes, bonds own some bonds. I'm not sure that we've seen the high end yields yet, but I'd rather begin to nibble it. You know, four and a quarter than three and a half where we were not that long ago.
You think, start to go out along the curve, startlocking some of the stuff in slowly.
Truly, Yes, I heard the same.
Thing from Lisa shatout over in Morgan Stanley. You think we face that reinvestment risk rate cuts on the horizon.
That will happen at some point. So I want all my eggs in the short term five percent basket. Look a year ago, eighteen months ago, one and a half percent, ten year Treasury. That was a bad deal four and a quarter. I think I'll think about it.
It's unthinkable, isn't it. It wasn't let long ago. No, it wasn't. That happened fast.
I know it really did, Bob, It's happening fast now. Bob's good to see you. Thank you, sir, Thank you, Bob Dole of cross Mark Global Investments. Jordan Rochester join us now G ten FX strategist over Namura.
Jordan.
Great to catch up with you, buddy. Let's just start in the UK at the Bank of England, record wage growth. Are we bringing them back in for more rate hikes to come?
John?
I think that wage number will definitely make the Bank of England's absolutely think about raising rates the next meeting. We think there'll be two more rate hikes this year, so we already thought there was enough data to tell.
Them you should probably keep more hiking more.
I do think the.
Risks are that we get a weaker services CPI, perhaps not this month, maybe next month, and that the risks are actually tilted to just one hike rather than two. The idea of having two maybe three would require a reacceleration in that services CPI. So I always John think that the labor markets the most lagged indicator to track
as a central banker. Rewind back two years ago, the ECB, the Bank of England, all these other central banks that are pointing out weak wages as a reason not to raise rates was actually a ridiculous thing to look at because you missed all of the energy and commodities inflation that was coming. And it's why we are where we are today with central banks having to make up for lost time with all these rate hikes quite late on in that cycle. John, so strong wages fantastic for those workers.
Pretty difficult for.
The Bank of England to turn dovish with those numbers. Sterling positive or still in negative if they have to hike more.
Well, look at the reaction today.
You're at Sterling is the way to look at it.
Sterling tried to rally and then it came back off and you're Sterling's pretty much flat on the day. If the banking and raise rates at twenty five based up points like we expect, it wouldn't really move the needle for stirring. I think what'll be really interesting is if we get some more negative news on growth. We're starting to see that in China for example, But we were also having pretty dismal surveys out of the UK as well. When it comes to price pressures, they're all turning lower.
Maybe at the next meeting we'll get a better sense of whether that we will get that extra fifty. So two twenty five is in a row.
How much is that weakness that we're seeing in China bleeding through not only do the UK but Europe and the euro I.
Think what you were saying earlier, Lisa is spot on. There has been a little bit decoupling. You look at the likes of risk on in the US market, the move in US yields. Yet if you were to use the usual frameworks when China slows down like this, usually it's risk off and very dubvish, and it leads to dollar strength. And this is kind of what we're seeing in dollar C and H. So that's a clear trade. We think dollar S and H gets to seven to fifty, perhaps that's the sort.
Of move we're looking for.
We're doing it in a basket format, but it's not leading to massive Euro dollar weakness, which is very odd. And it's similar for sterling as well. It used to be If C and H move like this, you would absolutely have to be short euro. And the reason for that is because of this decoupling, equities are rallying in the US more broadly over the past few months, and that's held up euro.
Can it last?
And I noticed that you actually abandoned your strong Euro call recently, and you said, you know what, I actually see it being a bit.
Weaker from here.
What triggers that, if not the bad data out of China and this concern around the inability to stimulate.
The hardest part about effects, Lisa is there's three pillars to consider. One is what's going on with equities, Two what's going on with rates, and three what's going on with commodities. And for quite some time I was leaning on that equity pillar. The sort of rally we'd had in equities over the past few months was one of the reasons we had that uro dollar call.
We're looking for top side.
We still are by year end, but in the short term I see the other two pillars really dominating, which is the rates market says ur dollars should be towards one oh five. That's not a good thing where we are at current levels. And of course, with commodities, we've said, we've had a much higher and oil prices and natural gas one of the biggest imports for the Euro Area. Energy supply crisis has perked up recently of late, so it's maybe more nervous watching dollar s and h moved
the way it is. Default risks building in China, low credit demand, we saw new one loans collapse. That in the short term, given we've got not very little data now until we get the next CPI and NFP reports, and we've got Jackson Hole, but I think in the short term that they're not catalysts enough to boost euro. I'm surprised euro wasn't on an one eleven handle after that CPI report. So a few disappointments with the reactions in the market and going forward over the next two
weeks only Jackson Hole to really talk about. That's not a reason to be long euro dollar. But we are long Euro versus Norway, and we are long euroversus Sterling, so there are still eurobside bias in.
Our view, Jordan.
What you just described smeus like Eurozone stagflation is that what it is.
Well, inflation's going to.
Come down, John, It's going to come down quite quickly according to the sort of PPI and surveys. So the stagflation concerns, I think we're more last year's story. But the growth numbers Zew's this morning were pretty disappointing. I thought maybe we start to see positive momentum in European data surprises. They were so weak that maybe they improved, but ultimately the surveys suggests that it's going to be
a pretty weak outlook for European growth. And my problem on that side is I'm not sure where the next stimulus is going to come from. The Fed's not cutting rates until March next year, the ECB is not going to be talking about cutting rates until later the next year October November time. China's not doing a big fiscal steamer so far. So it is a combination that makes it really hard for me to see why surveys and
growth surveys should really pick up. So yes, and answer your question, it's still a bit like stagflation, but hopefully that inflation component comes down.
So Jordan, just quickly you think the guard is done.
We do.
We do think the ECB is done because we think that the data over the next few months will develop in such a way they'll justify no more rate hikes. I think the ECB and the FED have both introduced the skip concept, and hopefully by the time we get a few more reports that will then say we don't maybe need to hike at all. The banking in a weird place where they don't give that sort of strong
forward guidance about skipping or not. Hopefully we start to see that build up as a narrative for the UK as well in the next few months too.
I've got a birthday present for you. We're not going to talk about Eston Villa, Okay, I'm just gonna let you go. We won't talk about the score over the weekend. Short and happy birthday song.
Cheers guys, Rochester and Namura Jordan. Thank you.
Lindsay pigs As, someone who's been calling for reeds to be much higher, potentially even with a six handoff for the Federal Reserve to get inflation under control, joins us right now. She is a chief economist at Stifel.
Lindsay, what's your view.
On why we saw such a big upside surprise on retail sales?
Well, this certainly was a stronger than expected report. And no doubt this will boost optimates that because of the resilience of the consumer, we can achieve that soft landing. But I would push back a little bit in the sense that we don't need to put too much focus
on one month's numbers. What we have seen is a tremendous amount of volatility in terms of consumer activity month to month, suggesting that yes, while this was a welcome step in the right direction, consumers are increasingly shifting the goods and services in their basket on a month to month basis, something that they do, something we do as consumers when we are increasingly concerned about our financial footing.
So while this is again beating the expectations for the market, I wouldn't necessarily say that this is a trend that can continue to rise, particularly against the backdrop drop of some of these factors that prove artificial support drawing down savings a last sputtering of state and local stimulus. We see hardship withdraws from four to one k's up over forty percent on a year over year basis. But while this will provide a temporary support, this is not an indefinite support to the consumer.
So where does this fit in Lindsay to your view that you previously had, that the FED had a lot more work to do, that they had to get to a level that nobody was gaming out or very few of six percent or north of that.
Well, I think this is going to make the Fed's job more difficult because the longer it takes for the labor market for the consumer to show that needed weakness or respond to earlier policy tightening, the more aggressive the response from the FED must be, thus ensuring an eventual downturn. So the notion that the fact that consumer has continued to be resilient across the first five hundred and twenty five basis points supporting the notion of a soft landing, No,
I would argue it's quite the opposite. That simply means the Fed will have to be more aggressive raising rates higher and keeping rates higher for longer than investors had anticipated, suggesting that the downturn potentially and eventually will come and may be more more aggressive, more of a downturn than previously anticipated. If the Fed didn't need to raise rates quite as much, lindsa squash out inflation.
Lindsay said two things, raise rates higher and keep them there for longer, and those are worthy ideas that people had, But some people are starting to think, Okay, what if the Fed is done with how high they're going to raise rates, but they are going to keep them there for longer. And that's what we're seeing priced into the market gradually with some of the highest longer term expectations for FED funds rates that we've seen in this cycle.
At what point does that cause more damage in your view?
Well, I think it's certainly going to cause more damage. Again, the more pressure on the FED to respond. Now, if we continue to see this type of resilience, if we continue to see a third quarter GDP surpass earlier expectations or surpass what we saw in the second quarter, I think the FED doesn't necessarily need to continue to raise
rates indefinitely. But once they reached that sufficiently restrictive level, as you mentioned, we've long conceded that will be six percent or above, the Feed is likely going to be forced to keep us at that elevated level for some time. The FET itself has said rate cuts are not in their base case scenario for twenty twenty three, but even twenty twenty four remains a sizable question mark. If we
aren't able to see that intended result. Remember, the feed is raising rates to tap down consumption, tap down investment, and result in a slower level of activity in order to get that more benign inflation. But thus far the economy is pushing very hard against the intentions of tighter monetary policy.
If you are just joining us, we are just seeing the ramifications of retail sales numbers that came in significantly higher than expected. We're seeing the overall month over month headline number of zero point seven percent versus expectations of zero point four percent. The control group, which does factor into the US gross domestic product figure, came in at
one percent from the expected zero point five percent. We are seeing two year yield surge past five percent, ten year yields and thirty year yields both reaching the highest level since October, climbing up. We're seeing thirty year yields four point three two percent. Lindsay Piagsa of Stefol with us and Lindsey, I really want to get your sense of what could potentially halt this spending. You're saying it
can't persist. You're not going to see this forever. Some people have pointed to the student loan repayments that are going to start in October.
Do you give credence to.
This sort of idea that we could see some sort of tightening and and fiscal tightening on that front going forward.
Oh. Absolutely, But there's a number of factors. And remember, even with this monthly increase of beating expectations, when we take a step back and look at the longer term momentum, it's very clear that consumers are beginning to slow their activity. Coming out of the gate from the Great Shutdown, we had double digit growth, then we slowed to eight to six. Now we're talking about bouncing around two percent on an annual basis. So while still positive, the consumer has clearly
pulled back. And these other factors, as you mentioned, monthly payments for student loans, additional housing payments coming back online. This is going to compound the pressure on the consumer. Now, there are some temporary supports that we're still tapping into. There still is a sputtering of state and local stimulus.
Consumers are turning to four oh one ks, Consumers are ramping up credit card debt, and with the relative health of the balance sheet, meaning we paid down debt during the closure during the pandemic, there still is some wiggle room for the consumer to expand that balance sheet. So I'm certainly not suggesting that the consumer is going to
immediately fall off a cliff. But what we are seeing is these indefinite supports beginning to wane, putting additional pressure on the consumer eventually as we head further into the second half of the year.
What do you expect j Powell to say in Jackson Hole next week? Given all of this, I think one of.
The biggest questions that investors have is for how long? And that's really what I think Chair Powell is going to focus on. It's not necessarily how high, because it seems as if the Committee is of one mind that we're nearing that terminal level. Whether it's one, two, maybe even three additional rate hikes, we're up near that sufficiently restrictive level. But how long will the Fed need to raise rate or keep rate excuse me, at that elevated level.
I also think he's going to talk about the context of inflation against monetary policy. How does the FED respond if we see a reversal in inflationary pressures? Is that even a scenario that the Fed is considering, and how does the committee balance the risk between raising rates even higher than previously expected slowing the economy, against the risks
of wanting to obtain that two percent inflation target. So there's a lot of questions that investors are going to be listening for that I'm going to be listening for in terms of how to gauge the Fed's mindset on these broader, broader themes for inflation and monetary policy.
Lindsay Pigs of Stefha.
Joining us now on Washington and the latest developments down in Georgia. Terry Haynes, founder of panchea policy Terry wanted for to catch up with you, sir, always thoughtful our conversations together. We mentioned this in the last couple of hours, and I think it's the appropriate place to start. We've got cases now in New York, in Washington, d C. And Florida in Georgia. Terry, how do you rank those just in terms of importance?
Oh, importance. I think it's far too early to tell. For one reason that you and Lisa were just talking about, which is the timing of the cases. You know, there's a whole there's a lot of different ways you can slice these things federal versus state, racketeering versus conspirators, all
kinds of things. I'd rank them in order of how they're actually going to come to trial, and to some extent, excuse me, and to some extent it matters greatly, you know, Frankly, I think whether they're televised or not, as you say, I mean, the closer people see what's apply going on and why they're going to have more of an opportunity to make up their minds on it.
Terry, can you elaborate a little bit why is the televisation of this important? You said to make up their minds, but what do you think the outcome will be of having it very much in the public eye.
I think there's just an immediacy to television, frankly, And you know, I think we've seen that over the past sixty seventy years just in terms of how people perceive candidates and people choose candidates. So you know, very broadly there's that. But secondly, there is a debate, more than a debate in the country about whether this is politicized
prosecution or whether there's something here. So there's going to be an awful lot of pressure on the Fulton County DA to show that these charges are real and they're not the kind of standard splash that prosecutors do. You know, prosecutors tend to go, you know, go in front of grand juries, particularly how big you go broad you get the maximum you can from the grand jury. In this case, it's going to be you know, did she overstep? Does
she actually have evidence? And you know, and of course the other side has a great deal to say about how to interpret the evidence. So you know, this is going to be on a pretty big stage, and even more so if it's the first one.
Terry, there's a real question around the different polls of the political sphere right now and how people are going to respond to court cases that most of America or many of Americans have already decided about regardless of what's happened. Yet, what do you think the outcome will be to some sort of conclusion of the trial, if there is some sort of conviction. I mean, I'm just trying to play out the political risks here on a social level.
Well, I think firstly, and I've said this to you all before, I think there is greater uncertainty around the twenty twenty four presidential election because you have an increased risk for an uncertainty about Trump and about Biden. On Trump specifically, I think what you've got is a situation
where you know, if there's a conviction. My instinct is what happens is that it accelerates this death by a thousand paper cuts process where people say, you know what, regardless of Trump policies, regardless of whatever, you know, movement, you know, kind of anti establishment movement I think exists here, I'd be better off with another candidate. So I tend to think that the more the prosecutions start landing home, the more that the Republican electorate turns elsewhere.
Right now, Terry, is you game out that political risk? Can you talk to different clients? What are you telling them to prepare for? What is the way that it will manifest itself if we're not focused as much on say, debt reduction or some of the tangibles nuts and bolts of fiscal governance.
Well, I say a couple of things. One is that the the first action in the presidential primary process is five months I think from today. I mean, you know, Iowa, I think it's five months from today. So you know, that's a very long time in politics, and there are examples all over the board about how you have somebody that was leading in the polls today, you know, didn't win different primary challenges. So you know, number one, there's that.
Number two, keep your eye on the panoply of things that are going on in Washington, you know, not just the Trump matter or the Biden matter. You've got just in the next few months. You've got a i think a shutdown likelihood, a government shutdown likelihood at sixty percent. You've got probably no meaningful action on debt and fiscal
which markets are increasingly interested in. You've got everything from the China economy to the Ukraine Russia matter to think about, you know, bank capital standards, and all the way down to John's favorite topic, UFO. So, uh, you know, what we've got is a situation here where there's an awful lot of risk coming out of Washington on a variety of fronts, all at once, and it would behooves investors to pay attention to all of it, not just this particular bread and circus.
Terry, how did you know that? How did you know that? Terry? How real is this down in DC? When you watch these hearings. How real is it?
Which part the UFO was obviously, Terry. You know, the cheap and easy line is to say, anybody that watches Washington with regularity, uh, you know, does believe in uh you know that that there's something out there that you know, is affecting things that isn't us. You know, I think there's an awful lot of circumstantial evidence on the UFO matters. There always has been, and you know, they're going to need to get to the next step to start convincing people.
Terry, Thank you, sir, Terry Haynes, a panteer policy Then in Washington, Drew Reading joined US Now home builders analysts for Bloomberg Intelligence Stree, can we start with Home Depot.
What have you learned from the numbers this morning?
Yeah, so Home Depot had a modest beat, same sort of sales down two percent. Expectations were for declind of about four percent. I mean, this was pretty much in line with what we were expecting. There's been some noise quarter to quarter with lumber and weather. The key takeaway is that they reaffirmed their four year guidance calling for a decline of two to five percent, which includes a backdrop of the broader home improvement market falling five to
ten percent. So you know, they reaffirmed this back at their investor day a couple of months ago, so not a whole lot of new news from this release. They did confirm that they're still caution among consumers and that big ticket discretionary projects are still under a little bit of pressure.
For get big tech.
One of the stories of the year in the acuity market has been this rip roaring rally in the home builders through later and I were just talking about how frozen this housing market is in America. Can you put some numbers on that, just how frozen our things at the moment.
Yeah, So if you look at the existing home market, sales are down more than thirty percent from their peak. I looked at the thirty year mortgage rate before I came on this morning, and we're at seven and a quarter percent, So, I mean, that's kind of startling. And just to give you some perspective of how out of whack rates and prices seem, home prices would have to fall somewhere around thirty five percent in order for monthly payments relative to incomes to fall back to trend levels. Now,
we don't think that's going to happen. The main reason is because the market is frozen. There's no inventory in the existing home market, and that's really what's put the builders in a unique situation. They've been able to bring new product to market. They've been able to help customers make their monthly payments work by offering great buydowns. So they've kind of been in the sweet spot with higher rates, which is something we know we and others didn't really expect coming into this year.
Bear with me, Drew, But immediately I started thinking, does this mean that when the FED cut rates, or if they've cut rates, maybe they're going to hold rates here for a very long time.
Most people expect them rates to go down, that.
Home builders will sell off, that that will actually reduce some of the proposition that they offer at a time where you start to see a little bit more loosening in the housing market.
So it's an interesting question. And the reason I said that they're uniquely positioned is because we think they could benefit in the current environment where rates are around seven and they're buying them down to five and a half. But if rates fall back to five and a half percent, naturally you've expanded the buyer pool, so it increases mobility. So we think even in that environment, builders can still
do well. I think the biggest risk, and it's not something we're seeing now, is that you get more stress in the labor market and unemployment starts to spike. That's where you would start to see pressures on home prices and more supply coming to market because there's forced selling activity. That's just something we haven't had to this point.
Home builders have also been in a sweet spot because you've seen lumber prices come in and from home depots earnings, that's been actually a headwind for them.
That's been a problem.
They've actually seen margins come in with some of their supplies and their sales increase.
Not able to be passed along as much. How much?
Is that kind of one of the variables that can back up a home builder or not if you start to see lumber prices go back up.
Yeah.
So right now, profitability for the builders in terms of gross margin has benefited from the fall and lumber prices. We expect that to continue over the near term, but they have started to take back higher and that could add some pressure to margins alongside the increased use of sales incentives. So it's certainly something to watch because obviously, as you would expect, lumber is the biggest component of a house.
When, Drew, do you expect mortgage rates as you mentioned seven and a quarter seven and a half percent if you look at bank right, when will that actually trickle out into valuations in a more material way? Are we just basically saying that because of the term structure, it's not going to have the ramifications that anyone expected it to have.
Yeah, it's certainly an interesting dynamics that's taken shape. And I think the reason that higher rates aren't having an impact on home prices and the evaluation houses is because there's no supply. In order for a price see to see a dramatic decline, you'd have to have that forced selling activity, which would be associated with an economic recession and rising unemployment. We've got very well healed borrowers out there. We haven't seen those exotic loans this cycle, so we
have good borrowers. They're locked into low fixed rates, so there's really no reason for them to be forced to sell absent on broader economic recession.
Dre Can you give me that number again? For those that missed it, what the housing prices need to fall by to go back to trend repayment levels.
So in the existing home market, home prices would have to fall about thirty five percent in order for that monthly payment relative to income to kind of fall back to those trend levels.
We talked about thirty five percent, Jay. Thank you Drevenning there Bloomberg Intelligence.
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