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Surveillance: Margin Pressure with Doll

Oct 17, 202333 min
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Episode description

Bob Doll, Crossmark Global Investments Chief Investment Officer, says margins will come under pressure going forward. Greg Daco, EY Chief Economist, discusses September's strong retail sales report. Meghan Graper, Barclays Global Debt Capital Markets Co-Head, says that more discipline is being applied to investment decisions. Sri Natarajan, Bloomberg News, says recent banks earnings reflect a 'transitional quarter.' Henrietta Treyz says Congress is eager to begin the voting process on aid for Israel.
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Transcript

Speaker 1

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This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Tom Keene, along with Jonathan Farrow and Lisa Abramowitz. Join us each day for insight from the best and economics, geopolitics, finance and investment. Subscribe to Bloomberg Surveillance on demand on Apple, Spotify and anywhere you get your podcasts, and always on Bloomberg dot Com, the Bloomberg Criminal and the Bloomberg Business App. This is

without the question for this week the interview. For those of you on radio and television worldwide are saying forget the fancy talk talk common sense. Robert Dahl has decades of experience enjoying losses in the equity markets. He's a crossmark global investments and is a needed conversation this morning. I want you to address the retirees, the institutions who are very forty within the sixty forty split. You and I have never witnessed price declines in bonds like this.

What is the to do for the people that have been hammered in bonds?

Speaker 2

As you know, if we don't get a nice rally in the bond market in the fourth quarter, it will be the third year of losses for a tenured treasury. That has never happened before in history. So these people are sticker shocks, shell shock, whatever.

Speaker 1

They want to they shift equities.

Speaker 2

Look, depends on your time horizon. If you have a long time horizon, you're sixty five and you're retiring in your good health, have more equities here?

Speaker 1

Always looking at me?

Speaker 3

Well, you say, do you shift to equities? Let's dig deeper into that. Do you realize these losses in the bond market, that's essentially the question Tom's asking here, or do you sit on them?

Speaker 1

Yeah?

Speaker 2

So I don't think you run for the hills in the bond market. I don't think we've seen the high end yield. Look, you've been debating wire yields up. They're up because the economy is a little bited, and expected inflation's nowhere close to two and is stubborn, and you got the supply demand thing that rears its ugly head every once in a while. That's not an environment to see a three handle in at ten year treasury.

Speaker 4

And right now we're wondering whether bank earnings are indicative of the broader economy or whether they're an outlier at a time where they're consolidating their business in a smaller number of high income individuals. What's your view. How much of a tell has the early earnings report been.

Speaker 2

That's a great, great point you're making, that is to say, bank airrings are probably a little less useful than usual, a little less useful for overall earnings. My big surprise you touched on is second ago is we haven't seen more consolidation in the banking industry post the debacle in April. My thought was we're going to see more bank combinations, and there's been. There's been precious few. There will be more to come. We need fewer banks.

Speaker 4

At this point, though, given the fact that you're still seeing credit extended in the economy, do you think to put these two ideas together with the bond market, that bond deals could go even higher on the long end, and that actually Meghan Graper is correct, and the bond market is telling the FED they need to do more on the front end, and not that they have to let the long end do the work.

Speaker 1

I agree with you.

Speaker 2

Is the long end doing some of the Fed's work for them, Absolutely, but that's proving not to be enough. The Fed, I don't believe is done. You know, we said along either November or December. I think it's more likely December. But I still want to come to the point. More important than when the FED. If the FED raises rates again, is what about the impact from zero to five and a quarter In the last eighteen months, we

have not seen the full impact of that lease. And I think that's still in front of us.

Speaker 3

Let's talk about the banks and build on the white Tom start this conversation. Many of these banks are sitting on some securities very long dated well when rates were very low. Now rates are higher, They're underwater, is what Bank of America and the CFO is saying about them. Expect zero losses from the how to maturity securities. I think we all understand that what gets them out of the penalty box regarding this story, because that stuff has been bullied by this story.

Speaker 2

All yeah, yeah, because they're big numbers and that it's legitimate. Some banks had to mark the market, and we know what happened back back in April. Look, these things will mature and they'll they'll be at a zero loss at that point in time. But it's so big and it's so pervasive. I don't know how you can hide behind that anymore.

Speaker 1

To your brilliant question, John, I'm sorry, you're one hundred percent correct. The idea of how the maturity is bs in any textbook. You go to Lehigh University a million years ago and young doll was going, that's bologne. Let's talk real blog here. I want to talk about your CPA background in the fans warton degree you've got, which is about accounting, accounting, accounting. The absolute shock of the Gloom Crew has been margin resiliency. That's an IMF term.

Everybody's resilient. I was resilient over my Moroccan coffee. Are we resilient right now in our margins?

Speaker 2

I don't think so.

Speaker 1

You're going to see margins giveaway.

Speaker 2

I think margins will come under some pressure. We're early in the reporting season and they've held up reasonably well. But I don't see how companies can continue with these big price increases to match their cost increase. Look at the labor wage gains.

Speaker 1

Okay, so are you in cash? I mean this is the negative. This is the gloomy doll we're seeing this.

Speaker 2

So we have more defensive securities. I want securities stocks that have high earnings predictability, high earnings persistence, good cash flow, and reasonable valuations, and that means you're away from the economy to some degree.

Speaker 1

That's Apple, Microsoft, and Manchester.

Speaker 2

United Those it fit the bill.

Speaker 1

Definitely.

Speaker 2

I double up on Manchester. The HMOs fit the bill. Some software companies fit that bill. It's what are the companies that you're pretty sure six months from now will deliver the earnings that are expected. I think a lot of companies will miss on earnings as the economy slows, whether we get a recession or not. That's escaped almost everybody's vocabulary. I don't think it's out out of the picture for next year.

Speaker 1

Walmart present p E almost a thirty multiple. I don't get it.

Speaker 3

How many times this year have we heard about a weekly consumer all times? We said on this program the economist, the crime recession, do you see it actually materialize in this quarter? What are the sources of demand that's hound at this economy, but you can identify that are fading currently.

Speaker 2

So the amount of cash on the balance sheets, the excess cash from the pandemic that has definitely come down. We can debate whether it's almost over still half a trillion or whatever, but it's not three and a half trillion where it was two. Starting to see a fewer people work multiple jobs, and that's often a lead indicator into the job market. It's not a long list. At

this point. You have to look at the lead indicators for the employment cycle, and they are getting to the point now where eighteen twenty four months after the Fed starts raising rates, after the yield curve begins to invert.

Speaker 5

We just we just have no patience.

Speaker 1

Somebody went back.

Speaker 2

And looked at these periods in the past between Fed raising rates, yield curve inverting, and the start of recession. The dialogue is always out of recession, it's never coming, and then all of a sudden, there it is.

Speaker 3

Jobless claims coincidental indicator saying it's not here.

Speaker 5

Isn't it?

Speaker 2

No, it's not here yet that's correct.

Speaker 5

Still in and around tondray Kine.

Speaker 1

Grig Dako joins us NOW chief economist E Y as he considers this across all the advantages of the EY system. The market was were you yes?

Speaker 6

I think the surprise was both in terms of the strength of the data in September, but also, as you mentioned the upward revision for the month of August, we are seeing that consumers spent more than we initially thought over the course of the summer. The key question is twofold One, do we see that momentum persist into the fourth quarter or do we see a little bit of a pullback after the strong summer?

Speaker 1

Two?

Speaker 6

Is it inflationary growth? To your question about whether the Fed will have to go further in terms of raising rates, so far we haven't seen the type of inflationary dynamics that would be aligned with this strong growth. I think that would allow the Fed to not necessarily have to tighten further.

Speaker 1

Are we in the thrall still of pandemic uncertainty? Do you have a belief to Q four? Can you model out Q one Q two of twenty twenty four, or are you just making it up because this is a regional macroeconomics.

Speaker 6

Well, I think it's very difficult, certainly to forecast in the current environment. We have a set of unique features when it comes to the state of the labor market, we have a set of unique features when it comes to the state of the housing market. When it comes to the resilience of consumers, even we've been surprised as to how resilient consumers are. But I would note a few things.

Speaker 5

First, we are.

Speaker 6

Seeing the drag from higher prices weighing on consumers' ability to spend as we move forward, especially for lower income families. We're seeing the weight of higher interest rates weighing on people's ability and desire to spend on credit. We're seeing tightening credit conditions, and we are seeing the effect of tighter financial conditions even today.

Speaker 5

Okay, this is what.

Speaker 4

People have been saying. FED officials included in anecdotal conversations that they've been having with their constituents. They're hearing about this. So then why does the data keep coming in strong because an expected read after read.

Speaker 6

Well, again, this is still the third quarter, right, we had a strong third quarter. We know the spending in terms of consumer activity was very strong in the third quarter. We also know we're not seeing a retrenchment that is one of the key elements of this economy. We're not seeing the business sector retrench, whether it's in terms of investment or hiring, that it's still supportive of income and

in turn that has allowed consumer to spend. The key question is whether this type of momentum, very strong momentum in the third quarter, can really persist into the fourth and into the first of next year.

Speaker 4

You said something that was really important that it's unclear whether this type of spending is inflationary. What is going to be the tell on that, Because it seems like if people are willing to pay higher prices and companies are passing them along again to PEPSI or co cod, you've got sh inflation and all that. Well, why wouldn't this be inflationary? Why would inflation keep dropping?

Speaker 6

Well, we've continued to see slower momentum when it comes to CPI prices, when it comes to PPI prices, even the margins on the PPI front are pointing to less inflation on a sequential momentum basis. Even the jobs report last Friday that was very strong, it was non inflationary. We were seeing the help from the supply side help alleviate some of the wage pressures and bring down wage growth. So that's less inflationary then would be concerning for the FED.

And we've seen actually inflation run ahead of the Fed's expectations. I wouldn't be surprised that we end up below the Fed's SEP projections in terms of inflation by year end.

Speaker 1

Greg daco E y with us will continue here a five point one five percent in the two years. The ten year yield really buttressed out right to recent highs four point eight zero percent. Thirty year bond a dash to five percent four point ninety four percent. Michael McKee further observation.

Speaker 7

Well, I think the auto sales is an interesting situation, and we don't know how much of that is parts and repairs. But given the fact that we had a strike and maybe that's got people to go buy cars while they thought they could. But at nine fifteen this morning Eastern, we get the industrial production numbers and we'll see about auto manufacturing, see if that is a sort

of counterweight to the auto sales. If we're just selling what's on the lot and you're not going to have any more, then that is less of a problem for the FED. But it's an interesting dynamic.

Speaker 1

But for four years we've missed, simply missed guests, the resiliency of the consumer. What are the economists doing wrong?

Speaker 7

It's an interesting question because we always used to say before the pandemic, never stand between an American and a cash register, and that seems to be back in force. There was a shift in spending. Everybody went to goods during the pandemic, and then everybody did revenge travel and went to services. And now it seems to be broadening out so that people are just continuing to spend. But we thought that their money would run out and it hasn't.

It may be the additional wage gains that people have gotten, because people tend to spend what they make, and now if we've spent down the pandemic bonuses, it may be that people got raises and they feel like they can spend more.

Speaker 4

Greg just final word here, does that mean that this world can live with five percent patchmark rates? And that we're looking at a new term structure that looks very different to what he did it three years ago.

Speaker 6

Well, we certainly have to adapt to a higher cost of capital. Think there's no doubt that we have to have both the business sector and the consumer sector adapt to this higher cost of capital. I would point to one thing that is very important in this higher cost of capital environment, how strong income is. If we start to see softening in income, which we have seen, that will weigh on people's ability to spend. But there's no doubt that we're not going back to the free money era.

People still want to invest in this environment, but there's going to be more scrutiny as to how much investment goes into the economy and how much hiring goes in road To.

Speaker 1

Find a quick question which matters most the November meeting November one or do we dash to December? Which meeting is of greater value to Greg Bako.

Speaker 6

I think both meetings are going to be quite interesting because even if we don't get a rate hike at the upcoming November meeting, we'll get a discussion and more information coming out of Fetcher Powell as to the intentions of the FED going into the last meeting of the year. They will want to maintain that optionality of one more meeting, but I think they're increasingly taking comfort in the fact that the July rate hike may have been this last rate hike in the system tightening cycle.

Speaker 7

Interesting time we see this. The November meeting hasn't changed in terms of futures pricing nine point eight percent, but now we're up to thirty one percent for December exactly.

Speaker 1

I think maybe this is the moment where we launch out to I believe it's December thirteenth. Greg Daco, thank you so much. With e y Ernst and young true Ntta Rogen joins us owns the high ground on the major banks and particularly Fortress Solomon, or at least Igloo Solomon as it is. Let me just go to a general and open question right now, your thoughts. I'm looking at different stories here saying it was a Moldi quarter because of the right downs, but your thoughts.

Speaker 8

Free not necessarily because of the they're pulled back from consumer lending. It was a Mouldi quarter. This is again a transition quarter. We talked about the second quarter for Goldman Sachs being a kitchen sing quarter. They are doing this strategy pivot owned up to their mistake with the consumer banking foray and locked in a lot of the losses and the hits from backing out of that in

the second quarter. Some of it is reflected in the third quarter as well, but the lot of the losses are also just straight tied up to the real estate market and also the fact that the investment banking market remains sluggish. That's what's driving profits down thirty three percent. Not necessarily some of the changes you're seeing there, they're significant from a strategy perspective, not necessarily a third quarter earnings perspective.

Speaker 9

For Goldman Sax.

Speaker 5

What is Agloo Solomon?

Speaker 3

It's a smaller okay, smaller icy Fortress asked the question.

Speaker 4

For that, It was melting.

Speaker 1

Forts is like big and we're doing this, and we're doing this is what Jane Fraser wants to do. These guys want to Can we just get back to what we used to do in a smaller format?

Speaker 5

Okay, just want to do it. That was wonderful.

Speaker 9

Fortress is also a lot more sturdy than an Igloo.

Speaker 3

Okay, Okay, you're both taking aren't you. Are you saying that things are sturdier at JP Morgan Right now, the guy I was just trying to explain, Okay, I'm making a career out of that. Okay, of the forces that have had this bank back and things getting better or worse.

Speaker 8

It's headed in a new direction, not necessarily better or worse, because they will have to execute it is a story that they have to tell.

Speaker 9

They have a coherent story to tell.

Speaker 1

Now.

Speaker 8

You could argue that there was some flip flopping over the last couple of years, but at least now it's clear. They say they have two important legs to the stool, the investment bank and the asset and wealth management unit. Now the key is to prove that they can deliver on both fronts to the expectations of investors and therefore drive the stock higher with higher multiples down the road.

Speaker 4

What can we learn from the fact the Goldman Sachs beat on equity trading revenue at a time we saw JP, Worman and City Group not.

Speaker 8

It's interesting look over the last few years the crown for equity trading champion on Wall Street has been moving around with Goldman Sacks, Moment, Stanley, JP Morgan. It was pre pandemic least for a few years. Unquestionably Morgan Stanley not so much post pandemic. That comes down to some credit you have to give to Goldman traders who have gained serious market share across equities, and Fick Bank of America had a big jump in their equity trading business,

but that was off a lower base. Goldman's jump from two point six billion to two point nine billion a.

Speaker 9

Quarter, it's pretty significant.

Speaker 8

If you can hit three billion a quarter in equities, that's a pretty sturdy business.

Speaker 4

What's the difference between market share gains and writing a good market right A lot of people have raised questions about how robust capital markets are right now, given the fact that a lot of company are icing a lot of their transactions. How much is this just market share gain from European banks from smaller banks from each other, rather than really reflective of a good environment.

Speaker 8

Writing the gains is the factor of the overall wallet. An individual bank does not control that, But what they can control is the market share of the wallet that's available. And if you are gaining market share there, you're making progress. So even if the entire industry moves in a certain trend, if you're gaining within that, you will stand out at least eyes of investors straight now.

Speaker 3

Everyone's a bank canalyst. So some people listening to this and hearing phrases like house maturity, securities and all of this stuff regarded Bank for America, the stock's in a penalty box. It's down close to twenty percent. Yet today, can you explain what is coming on? Those longer de ety securities are underwater? We can all get that far. What's it stopping this bank from being able to do that is punishing this stock so much.

Speaker 8

The punishment in the stock simply goes to the fact that because they made that move, because they plowed their excess deposits a couple of years ago into some of these longer dated securities, that with the moves and interest rates that we've seen have been underwater, has meant that their securities portfolio is done one hundred and thirty one billion. That doesn't affect their earnings, but it does affect their

earnings potential. Right if they had not had this money locked up there because it's all in health for maturity right now, if they didn't have that money locked up there and earning two point five percent, it could well have been earning four point five percent and five percent in a five percent world.

Speaker 1

Okay, this is brilliant, and I got like eight questions and we don't have time. What is the maturity right now? What is the average maturity of They're under a tenth of a trillion dollars?

Speaker 8

See, this is what I said about trying to deciber Tomkin. It can be very tricky and sometimes you just you got me there, Tom, I don't we don't know.

Speaker 1

Does Michael Barnow at the FED?

Speaker 9

I'm sure he does.

Speaker 1

Why don't we know? I don't understand why shareholders don't know the average maturity of any given banks held a maturity portfolio.

Speaker 9

They do break it down. If I pull up the results, I can probably figure out that number for you.

Speaker 3

The distinction industry is making, Tom is really important. This isn't about selling those securities at are lost. It's about earning potential, which is what I really wanted to break this down. So when they come out and they say things like we will have no losses realized on these securities, that's kind of meaningless, isn't it. Isn't it just that your earnings potential relative to say JP Morgan, is that much lower if you have a four.

Speaker 8

Hundred billion dollar securities portfolio. Let's make up a number, your five hundred billion dollar securities portfolio, and you're earning two point five percent instead of an average of four point five percent on that that's a two percent diage point difference, and that's a ten billion dollar earnings difference.

Speaker 9

That adds up, and that matters.

Speaker 8

That's the reason the stocks down twenty percent this year, was down even more last year, and that's not a good look over a near two year period.

Speaker 4

When it comes to earnings potential. Though we're not talking about extending loans for mortgages. Tama show of KBW on earlier saying that they've gotten out of the game pretty much. How much is this just simply being able to capture the differential to current market yields on safe loans to high income people versus the beta of what you got a pit the depositors, which is basically nothing.

Speaker 8

If they were down five percent, if they were down eight percent, and we're talking about how do they get to being down four percent or being flat for the year. That's the latter is what we're talking about. The reason they're down twenty percent, way worse than every other big US bank out there is largely down to this earnings potential because they are missing out, plain and simple.

Speaker 1

One final question, does David Solomon have a support of the board within your reporting? I give him very high marks for managing this, as you say, kitchen syk over to another quarter, but does he have the support of the board in this process.

Speaker 8

We don't have to guess on that front because last month Mike Mayer was able to extract a public nod of support from the Goldman Saxe board lead directors saying He's.

Speaker 9

Not going anywhere.

Speaker 1

What's Montag doing.

Speaker 8

Montag's there digging into numbers and clearly backing David Solomon.

Speaker 3

This is found personal for I would say the whole yes, so far, hasn't it? It's faun personal within the bank. I don't hear complaints from investors like we've heard complaints from sources within the institution.

Speaker 8

Undoubtedly there was dissatisfaction in the ranks. You can't get away from that. Part of it is Goldman screwed up on one front. Goldman Sax prides itself on excellence and in fact risk taking, and they have very little tolerance for it. But now that you're through the other side, now that you've copped up to your mistake. Now the story is do you then move on or does the rank and file still demand consequence?

Speaker 5

They're trying to move on straight.

Speaker 3

Thank you, sir Snadarajin there, I've blown Banks America and on Kelmut Saxony.

Speaker 1

Began. Graper joins us Don Global, co Head of Debt Capital Markets at Barclays. Megan, you note the disinversion out there, the yield curves doing what a yield curve should do. You suggest that extends the timeline for the Fed? How does disinversion change the Fed's timeline into two thousand and twenty four?

Speaker 10

Yeah, I mean, I think it's fair to say we've entered a far more complicated phase of this cycle. The market's really now in a daily tug of war with policymakers around the path of rates, and I think there's been a lot of misinterpreted signals this month. I think the real question in my mind is what Powell and other members of the FED opt to message this week ahead of blackouts in the context of what continues to be a rapidly evolving backdrop. But you've got, you know,

a strong jose of reality for the market. Between employment data CPI PPI A you mish. I mean all of that combined, I think you know, plays into how markets are responding, particularly on the rate side. But I think we've read far too much into recent FED speak that implied that these higher rates might have actually done some of the heavy lifting. And what I think the market has failed to take into account is the nuance behind

the why. I mean, why are financial conditions tighter? If it's the strength of the economy which is fueling these longer term interest rates, they may actually need to do more. And I think if you dug into Logan's commentary, he suggested as.

Speaker 1

Much in your head, what is the level of the ten year yield where Powell and company are overcome by events? Is it a five handle or is it something more subtle than that.

Speaker 10

I'm not sure they're really focused on a nominal yield as being the determining factor. I think it's more about financial conditions, tightening of financial conditions and buying themselves room to continue to evaluate the data.

Speaker 4

How much make and do you see a potential risk to credit as yields go higher and potentially the Fed does more, which, as you think, is your base case?

Speaker 10

Yeah, I mean I don't think we can underestimate how hard it is for risk assets to rally meaningfully here when treasuries are this volatile. And yet we are, with everything going on, seeing a very resilient credit market. I mean, three months spreadballs at the lowest level since the start of twenty twenty two. Spreads on the corporate indext are

still hovering near the tights at one twenty four. So it's been a strikingly tame backdrop in the face of this elevated rate ball and even with some of the geopolitical overhang. I think as you talk to investors, what we're starting to see is a bit more polarization in terms of how accounts are approaching the market. So there's definitively more discipline being incorporated into in terms of investment decisions.

If your total return focused, I think you're waiting for the dust to settle a bit on some of this intraday volatility. If your yield focused, there's a very attractive entry point here that we continue to see for insurance and pension money in particular.

Speaker 4

That's from the investor side, Megan. One reason why it's wonderful to speak with you is because you also speak with the corporate finance officers, and you understand the angst of paying more than ten percent yields at least if you take a look at some of the market rates for about a third of the high yield index. How much angs do you feel among corporate executives as they look out at their runway and wonder when they're going to have to actually face off with these higher interest payments.

Speaker 11

In investment grade.

Speaker 10

There's a decent amount of complacency talking to both treasury teams and CFOs as they think about evaluating markets here, in part because there's very functional market activity as and when they do need to come to market, so there's a degree of patients. I think we're seeing we are seeing a backlog build for this post earnings window. But October has been the quietest start to a month going back to April, so when we were dealing with the

regional bank volatility. So there's a willingness with very manageable maturity towers for issuers to sit this phase out. I think you're likely to see side this smaller and shorter as a result.

Speaker 1

Bringing your debt world over to economics, where is your real yield out six months out of year, we've got a two thirty five level ten year inflation adjusted yield. Where do you see that out of year, say out a year?

Speaker 10

I think, you know, I think we're going to be rangebound for an extended period of time here. We don't see cuts playing into the equation until at least past September of next year. So a year out, maybe we're seeing some reduction from current levels, but I think we've got a ways to go before we see that play out.

Speaker 4

Are we learning, Megan, that this is a corporate and consumer structure in the US economy that can handle five percent rates for a longer period of time or is the lags? Have the lags just gotten much much longer?

Speaker 10

In investment grade, I think things are reasonably well insulated. You only have seven percent of maturities do over the next twelve months, and it's closer to seventeen where we've got greater concerns. It's probably on the high yield side where those maturity towers are definitively looming. So looking at both bonds and loans, so I think it's going to be have and have k nots as we look at the path ahead.

Speaker 3

I Megan thanks to Bamitis, I can cripe of Bancleys on the license with a fetspake sum much fet spake this week.

Speaker 1

With a historical perspective on this, Henrietta trays with Veta partners here on how Washington will respond. Henriette, to John Farrell's point there, it is about a let us go back to nineteen seventy three Nixon and Kissinger and basically they did an airlift to Israel. Does Congress want to support President Biden if an airlift is required to support Israel?

Speaker 11

I think they do.

Speaker 12

I think they're very eager to start taking boats on all kinds of aid, whether that is munitions, extra enforcement of the Iron Dome, anything that the president needs on a military basis. And then there's also a strong desire to provide financial aid. We just heard from your great reporter in Tel Aviv that they're looking for ten billion dollars on the Israel front. I would not be surprised if when that gets over to Capitol Hill they try to increase that dollar figure.

Speaker 11

That's usually what happens as members seek to sort of illustrate their support for the nation.

Speaker 1

Henrietta, you are an expert on the body language of Capitol Hill. I think of John Huntsman, Junior, former governor of Utah. His family has pulled money in the last twenty four hours or stop donations to the University of Pennsylvania over some of the debate and protest there. How are the congress people that we have, how are they reading the mood of America on this war?

Speaker 11

You know, that's a great question.

Speaker 12

I think the fallout is only beginning there as right now we're sort of in the immediate aftermath where there's reticence to come out in opposition to anything that Israel might need right now. But as we get into the days and weeks ahead, I think, to echo some of the commentary we heard from former President Bush, there's going to be a loss of interest in this, which I think is very real and born out by historical realities.

Speaker 11

And what happens is you start to get factions.

Speaker 12

Already, there are a number of bills targeted at penalizing in some way the Biden administration for the six million dollars from Iran.

Speaker 11

That's only going to get exacerbated.

Speaker 12

So I think people are really reticent to voice their folsome views on where things are with either Gaza and Palestinians Hamas or the Israelis, and that will probably foment in the days ahead and get more aggressive.

Speaker 3

Unlike Youkraying, do you expect that opposition to come from within his own partsy, within the president's own potsy.

Speaker 11

I think it's going to come from a whole bunch of different outlets.

Speaker 12

You have a pretty far right, extreme sort of anti Semitic component, and then you also have a very far left pro Palestinian component, and both of those are just going to get louder in the days ahead, and especially as the ground invasion starts.

Speaker 11

There's a lot of attention on that right now.

Speaker 12

Obviously, Secretary of State link and is heavily focused on containment and making sure this does not escalate. The Biden administrations move two aircraft carriers into the arena right now to try to make sure that that doesn't happen. But that escalation is something to really be mindful of, and I think the extreme positions exist across the political spectrum.

Speaker 3

There is also talk about American troops here. Henrietta. I shared this story with our audience in the previous hour. I'll do it again for people just joining us from the Wall Street Journal. According to US defense officials that the US military is selected roughly two thousand troops to prepare for a potential deployment support Israel. The troops are tasked with missions like advising medical support. Important to points out what they're not there for. We aren't intended to

serve in a combat role. No inventory have been put on prepared to deploy order. And this as well, it isn't clear under the circumstances the US would actually deploy the troops or to wear Henry talk to me about support for that in Washington currently.

Speaker 12

I don't think support for troop deployment is there, just as we saw with Ukraine. The most fascinating stories come from the sort of personal anecdotes of Americans going over to Israel to sort of volunteer. But I don't think troop deployment is something that this administration is prepared for. As I mentioned before, I think their effort is to contain and prevent escalation that might ultimately require something like TRUP deployment.

Speaker 11

We're happy to throw money at the problem.

Speaker 12

I think there are more than enough votes for that, and indeed, what I've been telling clients is not only there are their votes for the funding, but the funding is so popular that it can carry other things like a to Ukraine, a to the US Mexico border, and probably a government.

Speaker 11

Shutdown avoiding position.

Speaker 12

But I don't think troop deployment is something that any member or would voluntarily talk to you about.

Speaker 3

Right now, just quickly, speaking of vout, it's going to squeeze this in in about twenty seconds if we can.

Speaker 5

Will we have a speake upon the end of the week.

Speaker 12

I have no reason to update my priors, to be honest. I mean, they don't have a bill requesting aid to Israel. They don't need a government funding bill until November seventeenth.

Speaker 11

I fail to see the urgency, Hendra.

Speaker 5

Thank you Henritta Trice that a fight upon this on the light Tisk.

Speaker 1

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Speaker 6

In the East.

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