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Brian Levit joins US now Global Market Strategist to invest Go. Some guests had the courage the confidence to stick with it all the way up here today. Brian Levett one of them. Brian, you say this, I would view any near term challenges as a buying opportunity. Brian, why are you still so constructive this equity market?
Well, typically, if you look, if you look at US history, anytime inflation has peaked or come down, or just about any time the FED is done tightening, you've done well as an investor over the next couple of years. So you know when I say in your term challenges, look, we know that we still have to see the lagged effects of all the policy tightening, and the economy is still going to moderate or even weaken from here.
But history is on our side.
If you can look beyond just a handful of weeks or a handful of months, markets tend to do very well in the aftermath of tightening cycles. And we're getting quite close to the end of the tightening cycle. If we're not already there.
You guys are the byside.
You've got all your internal analysts, and you're also of course speaking to people pitching equity and bond ideas, and of course Invesco is a legendary bond house. If we have sticky inflation, Brian Levitt, what does that do to revenues of companies? They do better, don't they?
They do better.
Although I don't think that you know when we say inflation, we don't mean you know that inflation is going to sit here at these levels.
But to your point, they're going to come down but likely be higher.
Inflation is likely going to be higher than it was in the last cycle, which you're right.
That is nominal growth and.
That is supportive for for corporate earnings. The challenge that we have, of course, though, is that you know how much tight is the FED going to get and how much more inverted is the seal curve going to get and what type of economic response are we going to have? So we still haven't We still haven't seen all of that. So there's still challenges here, and we would still favor more quality investments rather than you know, thinking about what
the beginning of the new cycle looks like. But again investors should shouldn't I caution them on being too defensive here. Even if you even if you have some retracement in the next few weeks or the next few months, ask yourself, will things be better over the next couple of years, Will inflation be back to a more reasonable level, will the FED be on the other side of this, and
will the economy be recovering? And I think the answered all those questions are yes, which means we you know, we don't want to be too defensive.
Now, I've got to.
Go to the allocation as global market strategist, is too important US domestic quality versus international quality? Which way do you tilt?
I think we need to be increasing our exposure to international quality.
I mean, the US does well in these.
In the in the more challenging economic environments that could be ahead of us. But if you're thinking ahead to you know, the next stage of this, the.
End of tightening.
Well, that means that means the interest rate differential between the US and Europe and some of the rest of the world is going to narrow, and that tends to mean the end of a strong dollar environment, which we've had.
For quite some time.
So most investors are light on international you know, building up positions, you know, closer fifteen to twenty percent international.
Equity exposure, I think makes a lot of sense.
You're particularly giving the valuations and the catalysts of what could be finally.
Peaked dollar, Brian.
Given what you just said, then are you anticipating a change in equity market leadership.
Well, the equity market leadership will change when we get to when we get to the other side of the economic downturn, at least in the middle point of the economic downturn. That's when you start to see more value, more cyclical, emerging market, smaller caps participate.
So in the near term.
Here it's it's quality, it's it's larger cap, it's growthier, and we're certainly seeing that in the in the market activity. The shift comes typically in the in the midpoint of the economic downturn and the market getting ahead of what will be the new cycle. So I don't think we're there yet, but we're on the path to that.
Brian.
What do you say to people who have been in this market who are hearing a lot of people complain about narrow breadth in the equity market, the ap performance of ubercap, megacap tech names like Nvidia, Microsoft, and others. Brian, what's your message to them this morning?
Well, the message is that this is playing out as we think market cycles tend to play out. If you remember, in the beginning of the year, the market thought we were getting a soft landing, and so you saw value, small caps, emerging markets do very well.
That was called mid October through probably.
The end of February, and when inflation remade sticky and the Fed kept raising rates and the concerns of a recession became more heightened, well, that's when we shifted back towards a more defensive posture, quality, larger cap growthier. So I'd say that these markets are playing out as you would expect them to play out, given what the trajectory of the economy is likely to be.
And you'll see broader participation in these markets. On the other side of.
This again, we're not there yet, but at the midpoint of the downturn and economic activity, you'll see a shift towards investors favoring those names that are going to do well in a cyclical economic recovery.
What a handful of name's doing well right now, and one of them is in Nvidia. Brian, We've got to leave it there, Brian Love at the AVESCO.
We thought we'd dive into this a little deeper than the back and forth of OMG, MVDA men deep Sing. It knows that when you do double E electrical engineering, it starts out with the wheatstone bridge and then you cross a bridge over to differential equations, and heaven forbid, we get Maxwell and magnetism.
Right.
Mandeep Sing owns the high ground at Bloomberg Intelligence.
Mandeep this is a kid out.
Of Taiwan off the boat Oneida, Kentucky for population for ten. He is a textbook immigrant. He parachutes into Corvallis in Oregon State and magic happens.
When did the magic in Nvidia happen?
I mean this has been going on, I think for the last almost twenty five years, and he has built that, you know, in terms of focusing on a knit segment and then really expanding this scope of computing and in a way that it's so innovative in terms of disrupting the existing framework around leveraging CPUs to really a new style of computing. And I think that is where everyone has been caught off guard with the pace of the
change that can bring. But clearly the innovation is there and that's why everyone is so excited.
Take us not to the.
Hopes and dreams of AI three years, five years, ten years out, but the here in present, not danger, but the here in present reality. For Nvidia, can they sustain the growth now of a fifty five multiple stock.
Well, So, I think it's a little hard in terms of looking at it, you know, beyond twenty twenty three, simply because right now we have easier comps and we are just past this you know, cloud digestion phase. So this happened to be a much shallow and correction. And what everyone is expecting is for the market to really do well in terms of the demand side, on the data center side, to hold up for the next six to eight quarters. I don't know if that will be
the case, given how much uncertainty we have. But one thing we know is there is this secular shift from CPUs to GPUs. And you know, really what they're selling is almost two hundred thousand for a box, a server box that used to cost ten thousand. So look at the ASP increase that they have been able to generate from this new device that they have created, and that is quite powerful. When you see a company, you know, kind of raising ASP's like this, that is very positive for the growth margin.
And I think that's what you're seeing in their results right now.
Manday the cheat guide to the market action this morning, it's just to say well and videous up. Because they anvelt some new products. I wonder how many people actually know what those new products do. Mandate, you're someone who probably does. Can you tell is what this new product line appears?
Yeah. So the biggest use case is around training these large language models. And what you need for this is a lot of computational power, and a GPU can do it in a very short period of time compared to the traditional CPUs. Even if you stack a lot of CPUs, you can train these large language models. So one thing they've proven is not only is it an innovative way, it's the only way you can train a large language model and think of, you know, our computational requirement across
the board, across industry. You need this type of technology to enhance the productivity. And that's something that's not like it's going to drive a massive refreshed cycle. And that's why everyone is so excited because the existing market needs to refresh to the new way of computing. And that's a pretty large market.
When you think of semiconductor as a six hundred billion dollar.
Market, who is that competition.
Competition would be you know, AMD, Intel to an extent. The problem is they're so far behind, especially Intel, in terms of focusing on GPUs and that's where you know, they missed the boat for at least five years, where they just didn't think this market was big enough and they can't still catch up. I mean, there was some rumors about n Video partnering with Intel so that Intel
can make their GPUs, but that's a boundary play. I'm talking about that two hundred thousand ESP component that Nvidia is selling.
Who can compete with that? And I think AMD is.
The closest right now for that along with the hyperscalers and.
The simplistic view of a fool like me is it's about gaming.
Forget about that.
What does Innvidia mein Mandy for Productor and Gamble for Minnesota mining and manufacturing for Ford Motor.
Yeah. So, I mean these companies spend billions of dollars on their IT, you know, over time and when you think about their data center footprint, that will completely go away. It will be on cloud. And what large anguage models do is not only you need to rent the basic cloud capacity, you will run your AI on cloud. And that's where Nvidia has positioned in self really well. It
is partnered with the likes of Microsoft. I don't think all the hyperscalers are on board with Nvidia, but for a traditional enterprise, they don't need to spend on it anymore, especially on the infrastructure side. They will outsource everything to these hyperscalers. And then video is trying to becoming one of them.
Mandi when he talked over the weekend, I think everyone's bista is you can translate what that means. Manday when he talks over the weekend and uses the hyperbolic language like tipping point, the dawn of a new computing gauge and all those things Mandi, there are some people out there who just don't have the specialized knowledge to really
understand where this is going. And it's a market of faith for many people in the stock market who just see the momentum and just think I need to be a part of this, Mandi, do you have any kind of cheek whatsoever to do a distinction between what is real and what might be bs?
Well, so I look at you know who are the key players who will determine the fate of this market, and they are quite concentrated. I mean I mentioned about hyperscalers. Then you have got Apple on the smartphone side. What will Apple end up doing in terms of large anguige models That will have a big influence in terms of the size of the opportunity for someone like Nvidia, if they do everything in house, then they're going directly to TSMC.
Right now, Nvidia has the technology, it has a monopoly.
But it's going to TSMC to make its chips if Apple does the same, and granted they may not have that technology that Nvidia has, but clearly you've got you know, eight or ten players that will determine the size of the opportunity and how this shakes out. And that's where I think you have to watch out for what they do, not what they say. And the only time will tell what the hyperscalers will do. I can't imagine them paying two billion dollars in media every year to upgrade their GPUs.
It's just too much capex. And that's what we're talking about here in terms of the animal cap expend on something like this.
Mandate excited for your coverage on this story for the years to count. Never mind the wakes and they've sink that have Glindagens hatogens.
Greg Valier knows is this ties directly in to our sailors and our officers. Is they are on aircraft, carrier, submarines and everything else in the military. And this budget debate, mister Valier, is with AGF investments. Greg, you absolutely nailed this morning by getting beyond the cable TV idiocy to the Senate's outrage over the defense of our nation. What are we going to see not in two days, what are we going to see in five and six days from senators worried about the Pentagon.
Well, it's going to be a big deal. And Lindsey Graham, a famous hawk, blew a gasket and I think it was Fox on Sunday because the defense spending in this bill will be lower than the rate of inflation. So for a country that doesn't spend as much as people think we do out of our GDP on defense, this really angers a lot of Republicans.
It angers Republicans. What I'm going to suggest that Democrats are going to show up as well. I mean, this is critical, Greg.
Is it a bipartisan fury of our officers and sailors? Are infantrymen at risk? Is it bipartisan in the anger here?
It is?
But we can't default. I think people realize that a default would be even worse. And during the course of this year time, I think there'll be supplemental funding for the Pentagon. There's ways you can still get money from the government, and I think that you will see more spending during the year. But there's a lot of complaints right now. Just to bring it to tonight, there is
a big vote tonight in the House Rules Committee. I think that Kevin McCarthy will prevail, But I think this thing drags on because of Lindsay Graham and others into next week and it probably gets right up until June fifth.
Well, great That's what I was going to last. Do we have a week.
Well, that's a good question. Here's what I would say. If we hit the deadline. The Treasury can sell bonds out of the Highway Trust Fund. Treasury can sell bonds out of the SOBI Security Trust Fund and pay them back a week or two later. So I think it's highly unlikely that we would see a default. And I would add if there actually looked like there would be at the fault, I think the markets would get so jittery it would finally send a message to Washington.
Craig.
We asked ridiculous questions in politics sometimes like who wins, who wins? Who won? After the weekend? Who do you think is doing a better job of just presenting what they got out of negotiations? Is it the president or is it speaking McCarthy.
I think the President has always been underestimated as a negotiator, and I think he did a pretty good job. The surprise to me, though, is Kevin McCarthy thought. I think he was held in low regard until a few months ago he became House Speaker. He got something done. They didn't get all that they wanted. In fact, in this final deal, a lot of what they wanted whittled out, especially on the total spending huts. But no, I give
both of them credit. But I think Kevin McCarthy is now a serious player.
Mean, Greg the senator from West Virginia, got a pipeline moving south from Harris. I believe it's Harris, West Virginia on celt across the border. Maybe it's Harris where it goes across the border to Pittsylvania, just southwest of Appomattox. Can you give out pipelines there? It is from Bradshaw, West Virginia to Pennsylvania, Virginia. Okay, there's a pipeline for Joe Mansion. Can you give conservative Republicans a pipeline?
You can't give people anything? And this was audacious. That's typical of Joe Mansion. He gets what he wants because he's still whispering that he may run for president, so everybody has to placate him.
Well, what about.
Ten to twelve, the fourteen people blocking Speaker McCarthy's efforts. Can he give them a bone that's highway like or pipeline like?
Sure, I'm sure there are people who are going to have post offices and they're named after them. There's lots of deals that are being cut right now to get this one hold out to vote for them later in the.
Day, Hi, Greg, what do you make of what the Republican candidates for the presidency have got to say about the deal that was struck?
Well, DeSantis was really striking and said, you know, it was a terrible deal and we're still headed toward you know, financial ruin. It was a pretty strong statement. DeSantis now is in a position where he's got to throw bombs because he's so far behind that I'm not sure he can catch up.
Greg, just a final word on defense spend in America, and not for me to say what that level should be. By the way, Greg, can you just go through the numbers for us and you really paint a picture of how much a percentage of overall spending defense spend naturally is and get to the heart of the issue that if you do want to do something about the deficit in this country, don't they have to rethink what's happening with defense?
Well, I would say, no, we're not spending enough on defense as a percentage of GDP. We're spending less than three percent. We complain all the time about Canada, They're not spending three percent of GDP. A lot of other countries aren't as well. And I think that the as the Wall Street Journal can say instantly points out, we're not spending enough on defense by any historical yardstick.
So, Greg, if that's the case, where does that leave any negotiations over ever cutting spending and doing something about the deficit.
Well, you got to talk about revenues at some point. I mean, at some point we have to at least look at taxes. I'm not saying we need a big, huge one, but fearless forecast, guys, the next big fiscal story is the expiration of the Donald Trump tax cuts in a couple of years. That will make this fight we've just went through look like a picnic.
Greg Valiere looking forward to that of Jeff. And if you could be long, one thing right now would probably be in video. If you could have been short over the last two weeks, somethink it probably would have been the treasury market. Katie Kaminski was short that treasury market. The chief research strategistic Alpha Simplex joined us right now. Katie, walk us through the thinking and whether that trade is still very much on well, let's.
Just think about where we are in the cycle, and let's think about what's happening in terms of long term cashlows. I think people may be underestimating the effect of higher rates on long term cashlows because they're just so used to things going back to normal. And so what we've seen is that the momentum in fixed income markets is short and in some sense, the equity markets are saying
that things are okay. And if that's the case, then the curve and we're going to tolerate the inflation, then the curve is going to have to steepen, and particularly the long end of the curve is what I'm looking at.
How do you link the equity market on a trend based basis with the bond market? How do you take trend based analysis of the ten year yield and fold it over to trend based analysis of the Nasdaq?
Well, this is a good question because I think what's happened to us, as those of us who are on the mathematical, more technical side, is that we've seen some very strong themes. We've seen strong equity momentum this year, also seen continued support of the short trade and fixed income, but we've been somewhat alone because most people have gone back to being bullish on bonds this year. And what's happening is you've seen correlations shift in March and you're
seeing new themes emerging. But the correlation between stocks and bonds should we go back to an inflation, rising rates or even a pause narrative is actually positive on being short bonds and more neutral on equity. So you've got to think about the correlations and how they're marking, as well as the signals.
Well, the correlations and also with trend following. Can you call a bear market low in October? We're now up x percent on SPX, And I mean, I get the correlations study, but actual trend based analysis Wells Wilder one oh one. Did we establish a bull market in October?
Well?
I always say that we don't pick the bottoms and we don't pick the tops. What we do is we look for confirmation. And I can definitely say that we've seen a massive turnarounds earning in October that has happened across multiple asset classes. It was sort of peaked in March when we saw sort of some weakness related to the banking sector, but we have really seen a pretty strong consolidation period since October, so I'm waiting for that to shift, and the new trend may be long equity, short bonds.
Again, Okay, this is a wheelhouse, and I know you're looking at this in the Andrew lowbox just to the left of the third base dugout at Fenway. But the bottom line is the great Luisia Mota would say, Okay, you've got consolidation and distribution, and then what what is the then what for you in the equity market, what is the signal to buy more in Vidia?
Well, I'd say I am a little more concerned about the equity market because it has had such a strong run. Could it keep going if we possibly? I think I'm more interested in seeing a breakout and fixed income, which is going the other direction. Because we're seeing that stocks have come up so much. That suggests the equity market thinks is very optimistic and thinks that sticky and flo is going to be tolerated, which means that long term cashows are more at risk. So for equities it's actually
looking pretty positive. People in general are thinking that we're just going to tolerate some modern inflation. The problem's going to be is when people realize, wait a minute, look at these inflation numbers, they're coming back up instead of going down more. I think what you're talking about the UK is a perfect example.
So, Katie, I think what we're trying to figure out is whether the high yields that you predict are going to be a challenge or not to the narrow leadership. So find the equity market, which has been dominated from big cap growth, is that a challenge or not?
Definitely if you think about growth, I mean growth has struggled a lot, and it was the most impacted sector during last year, and now that we've had a little bit of a slowing in interest rates, they've seemed to really raged back. So you're right, if we do see longer term cashlowers go up, that is the sector that could be the most vulnerable because it has the most duration risk.
Well, that would be a big challenge tom to the index level getting to the year so far for the nat stay which is at more than thirty, Katie, how would you explain then how resilient the index level story has been. Let's take the Nastak which had I think one of his biggest weekly gains of the year so far, just last week on the nast that one hundred. Despite this move that we've seen in the treasury market, what explains that Well, I.
Think I personally think we're only reverting back to recent highs and yields. I'm looking for a breakout. I'd say that we've just seen a little bit of movement and fixed income relative to where we were earlier this year, and that's why we've seen a resurgence. So I'm much more thinking about the more extreme scenario as opposed to a small adjustment back towards the high. Remember, the tenure
went to four percent earlier this year. We're not back at that level yet, so I'm kind of watching for that more than sort of the heck resurgence after a period of really really strong tightening of rates which we saw last year.
Katie, let's go all see to commodities.
Help me here.
The commodity trend is lower coppers off a cliff. It's a China play, I get all the fun undamental chat. What does a trend following look like in long trending, persistently trending commodities.
Well, this is a good question because commodities have also been decoupled somewhat from equity markets, we've seen downward pressure and commodities, particularly the base metals, also energy. One thing I've been watching quite a bit is the energy trade. I mean, we've seen a massive downward trend and there's all sorts of questions all the time from investors when
are we going to see that move up again? So for right now, it doesn't look like that's going to happen soon, but it is something that has been in a downward trend for a very long time, which could you know, if we see some sort of movement, there could be something there.
But you're correct.
Commodities have been trading recessionary, equities have trading optimistic, and treasuries also somewhat optimistic in terms of where yields are catty.
This was great just to clarify your thoughts on some things. Caddy Simplex, Kennthy Kamitski there, it's going to be a new.
Night when you to speak to someone expert on this.
Also on macro strategy of North America at State Street, Lee Ferris joined this morning. Lee, are you gonna go to You're gonna go to see Lowton whatever it is at the Hatters when Liverpool stops by.
I would love to. Yeah, it'd be fantastic to go watch a Premier League game at Kenilworth Road. And whether I'll be able to get a ticket, I'm not sure because as Jonathan's that is not any tickets available, so I think be pretty pretty tough to get one of those.
We're gonna see the ticket.
With inflation, let's just go to this because I think it's something John and you are living with your families and all. The inflation in the United Kingdom is of an absolutely different character. We're talking about sticky inflation in America. How sticky is nine percent food inflation in the United Kingdom?
Well, I think the food inflation is actually higher than that, Tom, It's nineteen percent food inflation. Overall inflation is coming down but still in the eighth Yeah, it's remarkable given how the consumer in the UK is struggling, how real incomes are falling, how mortgage rates have gone through the roof, which is very different from what we're seeing here. New mortgages here are higher but not existing because we're all
thirty year fixed. In the UK, people's existing mortgage payments in some cases have trebled and yet inflation is proven remarkably sticky, and this is such a difficult position for the Bank of England. And it was interesting last week we got the very strong inflation we're pricing four heights by the Bank of England, but Sterling didn't go up.
Sterling went down last week on the back of that because now the market is focused on, Okay, you're going to have to hike a number of time secure inflation. But what is that going to do to the economy over the sort of you know, the medium term. And the answer is it's not going to be pretty.
It's out a bit like September, a replay of some of that some of that league. What's been amazing just sitting here Lee over the last couple of weeks, speaking to people like you, people we admire in the market,
is just feeling the tide start to turn. All this enthusiasm for the rest of the world, for Europe breaking down with a couple of data points out of China, a reality check in the Eurozone, if you will, with Germany potentially heading into a recession, and Lee, at the same time, you've got this monster rap performance on the market. Catwaight at S and P five hundred on the Nasdaq relative to the equal weight, relative to what's developing in China,
overseas and elsewhere. And Lee, I'm just wondering, and Tom and I've been talking about this going into the weekend of coming out of it, whether we face another period of US equity market exceptionalism because of this AI theme.
Well, I think because of the AI and also because of the relative strength of the economy. And you know, I've been on here and I've talked about this before. The US is in a very different place from the rest of the world, and ninety one percent of mortgage has been thirty year fixed. Will do that. The consumer here is just thing. We have a very strong labor market. We still have excess savings from the pandemic. Yes it's limited to those of higher income, but they're spending it.
And at the same time, we have this fixed rate economy, whereas you look at the rest of the world. URBNZ stopped hiking last week, worried about the consumer because mortgage rates have gone up back in Canada. Have stopped, URBA, have stopped. Bank of England have got to carry on despite the fact it's probably going to mean a deep recession in twenty twenty four. The US is in a
very different place. So you've got the AI element. You've also got the underlying economy, which is in a very different place from the rest of the world because the structure of our lending market.
So Lee, this is peculiar for you, almost original, You sound almost constructive the US seculary market, Is that right?
It's a relative story, John, I'm not sure I'm constructive of the equity market absolute terms, but relative You've got to look at the US and say, look, the US economy is in a very different place from the rest of the world. The FED, we're still pricing FED cutting before anyone else, and that bit I don't understand. We've taken out a lot of the cuts rightly, so we still have a cut by January, and yet no one
else has a cut in that early. Why are we got an earlier cut in the US when the economy is holding up so much better than elsewhere and the inflation is still sticky. We saw the PC on Friday. Why are we going to be cutting before everywhere else? That's actually you know, flirting with recession. In recession, on the edge of recession, we're nowhere near it yet.
So Lee, just listening to you, they're the kind of views that we wanted to push through the FX market develop a little bit more dollar strength. We've seen some of that. As you look at that differential potentially closing, how would you play that scene.
I think you play it through the dollar. Yeah, you know, I've been bullish on the dollar for a little while. It's rallied back. Well, we've got over one forty one dollar yen. That's probably come into the end of the story. But I think when you look at euro dollar, you look at cable, you look at the dollar against the commodity currencies, I think this has got further to go. I mean, I think, look, eventually, the dollar is going to be a great sell. It's overvalued, it's over owned,
et cetera. But what we're seeing is institutional investors are now buying dollars again, the first time we've seen that since March. They've been strong dollar sellers. They flipped around, they're buying it again. They're looking at this US exceptionalism story again. So I think that that momentum and this relative rate price thing can carry the dollar through probably during Q three. We're going to see more dollar games.
We're up around three percent from the lows and the d x Y I think there's another three to five percent to go on that story.
Oh, give me some levels. Then we've got dollar index right now just short of one I four cable at one twenty four euro dollar, a break in one of seven earlier, one of seven forty three. What do we need to look out for on the single currency league?
I think we're going to see one o five before we see one ten in euro dollar. We're going to go below one oh five before we see one ten again Sterling. I think we're going to see below one twenty before we see one twenty five. And adding sternly, we're going to get down back down towards one point fifteen over the course of the second half of the year. Wow, but I think certainly right now, Yeah, I'm looking at the Embassis now we've seen the sort of dollar ye move.
I think the Embassis now is going to save a dollar against Europe.
I just think this is too important. I mean, you too are seriously knowledgeable about this. The new coach at Chelsea. Are you kidding me?
I thought so.
I thought it fifteen call on cable to Pocketino.
I've rich just tak home about Pocketino's getting paid and sterling you gets to convert.
It's going to be great. I mean, but the bottom line is the guy is supposed to go to the Tots and he went to Chelsea. What's that about?
You'll have to ask the man himself over a spurs, you know, I say what Dan leaves up to, I've got no idea.
Get on a plane, John, get over there and figure we're yeah going on.
I mean, just me making some monster calls that TK.
Subscribe to the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast on Apple, Spotify and anywhere else you get your podcasts. Listen live every weekday starting at seven am Eastern on Bloomberg dot Com, the iHeartRadio app tune In, and the Bloomberg Business app. You can watch us live on Bloomberg Television and always. I'm the Bloomberg Terminal. Thanks for listening. I'm Tom Keen, and this is Bloomberg