Surveillance: Lagarde's Optimistic Note For The Economy

that pivot in the last year. Did Steve Major do okay? I'm like getting out front of what I think Steve Major is always doing better than okay the last couple of years. Pleased to say, it's with us in the studios here in London, Steve Major, HSBC club willhead of Fixed Income Research. Good morning, Good day to you, Steve. Good morning. Your thoughts as you reflect on Shairman Powell in the last twenty four hours, What does it take through next year and beyond? How do you know when

a central banker is lying? How do you know his lips move so so the the the point of that is that we're not going to take too much from what we're told. So for me, building an investment strategy around a central bank head who tells me that they're on hold isn't going to take me very far. And if I had built my strategy around what he told me this time last year, I would have been short the market when it was rallying. Right. So I'm not saying that that's the only way that we do things,

because it's easy to be contrarian. It's very easy to just do the opposite. It's just that I don't get a lot of guidance. I mean, he doesn't know what's going to happen. Your point about the reaction function is well made because rather than waiting for this grand announcement in Q two two thousand and twenty on the on the Fed's framework review, which they've already delayed once, it is instead seeping into the reaction function in real time. So we now know that when you get an upside

surprise as we've just seen, let's do nothing. They might even cut challenge for me is how do you communicate that to spot traders and bond traders and others, because it's frankly quite patronizing to explain to them that those kind of things, because they're all educated to respond in different ways. So so so my best interpretation of all of this is yields probably go up before they fall dramatically.

I'm going to take any increase in yield from here as a buying opportunity because I think will end the end of the year with lower yields. I need some tips in the portfolio. Inflation protection makes a lot of sense here, a very good diversification. Let's talk about that, a cool option on the inflation store. Why, Steve, is that market positioning or is that just you think things are going to materialize a certain way of coming year.

I'll tell you why it's a cool option because if things continue like they are, which is a good possibility, then each yield, each basis point yield shift in the treasury is mimicked by the tips. So the tips and the treasuries are trading tick for tick um. If the yields keep sinking, the tips are going to keep up with the treasuries. But if something happens, like inflation was to surge, you're gonna get paid on the infliction side.

There's a risk of this view. It could be hugely wrong if the SMP goes down because then you weren't better sell your tips. Steve Major longer going far away. Um at Credit Suite's had that beautiful algorithm where they would show a time series of interest rates and they show along the way how everybody got wrong. The move was going to be the higher rates. That were whispers

up of highers, wrong, wrong, wrong, wrong, wrong. Do you feel like it's the same way and this call for higher inflation, is it just another redux of a tenure twelve year path. Yeah, that that that that is right, and everyone's thinking inflation has to go up because it's low. Central banks are trying to talk it up, but they're not doing anything. There's no there's no action. Is there really? In the honor of Paul Valker, this is really important.

Is there evidence a central bank can reflate? Mr? Volker proved we could disinflate, but is there any evidence they can lead to some level of inflation? It's appropriate. Central bankers know they can create inflation. They know it. They have to print money. Now that printing of money hasn't actually happened so far, because again mainstream thinking will confuse quee with money print When you know it's never been

anything like it, so we're not there yet. But central banks know that they can create inflation um and some some kind of step towards a radical government that that puts more of a constraint on the reaction function that could that could drive inflation. Steve, You're gonna stick with us and we're going to talk about the e c p A at a moment. I don't want to reflect

on the year we've had in the year ahead. It's that time of the year when Steve Major goes out visiting clients and Steve Major says rates are going to go lower, and typically you get a ton of push back and then rates go lower as the year grows older. Are you finding that the world is coming around to your perspective, your point of view just a little bit more in the last twelve months, And how does that make you reflect on your own framework for looking at

this bond market. When you've been the outlie, the contrarian voice for so long and then the world starts coming towards you, does it make you feel uncomfortable? Yes? And the current presentation is called straw Man, which for the American listeners, the straw Man is a fallacy that you construct so you can tear it down. And the straw

man for me is higher yields and bear steepening. So I want to play with that scenario because that scenario has to be fully constructed, because it offsets the Japan scenario, which is we go to zero and we stay there for a long time. So these two polar opposites are informing the current year. The yield level today of one point eight that it's and and it's been a bit inconvenient for me because I'm a bit too close to

my forecast level. So I'm having to be patient. I want youels to go up so I can buy again. It was an exciting week here in London. Of course I've done a lot. You know. We were going to go to the National Art Gallery and see the goga and then there was Arsenal west Ham. You're gonna wind up, Steve nature and can you do this at the end of the next It was like a balanced fair match. It was like you know when ECB press conference, Well it was I had Steve. What was that Arsenal was

good or west Tom was challenged? Both teams are poor and west Ham we're in front for sixty old minutes and then they collapsed and there's no single point I can focus on. It's like markets. Stuff happens, you get inflection points and and stuff happens. How did they turn it around? In the sprawl of London football, I mean, what is the I mean the tina and build a stadium, but they can't put a decent team in it. We've proved and that yeah, well with west Ham we have

to be patient. The difference between west Ham, Chelsea, Tottenham and Arsenal is that we don't have that high expectations. The problem that they have, just the problem for Arsenal is that they expect to win things that they feel entitled, whereas we have a bit of fund really and you also have an atmosphere in the stadium, which is something these other London clubs. They're like libraries if you ever make it. It's absolutely fantastic to go and watch west deadly.

I watched them last season west Ham versus Chelsea a bit of a London Derby. Fantastic gang, great atmosphere, just phenomenal atmosphere. This has been wonderful, great, Thank you, thank you so much, greatly appreciate you. David Bloom and the rest of your team's work this year. It just we skip the CP. Did we skip the CP? Yeah? You know, Okay, did you want to know what I mean? We've got like thirty seconds left and Steve Major, thank you so much.

HC looking forward to catching up with Frederick du Crozette. He joins us now. He joins us from pick Set Wealth Management. He joins us ahead of an ECB news conference that begins in a round about twenty seven minutes time. Fred, great to have you with us on the program. Walk me through what you expect to hear and what you expect not to hear from President of the Guard instead. Hmout's time. Well, I think it's always interesting for the first best conference. We know a lot about her, to

be honest. We know a lot about her style, we know a lot about her tweets about how she tends to possibly change the CBS communication reaching out to the

broader public. We we know all that. So what makes it even more interesting, I think is that most people just make me expect nothing new today, and yet we might still have a few surprises, or at least we'll be focusing on what Mrs la Goud announces in terms of the strategy review, which is a very I mean strategy objective of the e c B under a new management, and there might be a few surprises here or there, Fred,

Before the monetary policy review has even finished. At the FED, it feels like they've already adapted to what they're about to produce at some point in the future. It sounds bizarre, but that seems to be what is happening. The way they view the data has changed. They believe there's more slack in the economy in the United States. The way

they will respond to the data has also shifted. They're telling us now, the chairman is telling us that inflation, when it picks up, if it's not significant, even then, even a significant move up, we're not necessarily going to hike rate even then, it's a real dovish shift. So Fred, I'm wondering what that means for the e c B. We don't have to wait for these monastery policy reviews to start to finish. We can have a feel for

what it's about to happen. That's already happening at the FED, what's about to happen at the e c B. I couldn't agree more and we knew that President drag you actually was being criticized for that being, you know, this kind of very strong leader sometimes making in fact or choices and emposing them on the rest of the Council, and the one you just mentioned are clearly the same

for the ECB. By the way, sometimes I'm talking about this, but the set is just healing a little bit from the ECB playbooks talking about the system significant increasing in station even though you are very closer to employment full employment in the US obviously, but I fully agree, I think a lot is already de factored and changed in

the your area as well. You know that the ECB is only a single mandate on the headline inflation closer to two This might be amended, but in practice we know already that the CB is looking at core inflation a bit like obviously in the US. That a few changes could be made, but essentially the same idea prevails that you need to see a sustained, robust convergence of inflation and underlying inflation closer to the two percent targets over the medium term. How do you think that would

officially manifest itself? Reread Because at the moment, as you know, back in our three was the last monitor policy review at the u c B. They interpret a mandata prostability with inflation close to but below two percent. Is it gonna be as boring as saying the new inflation targets two percent or they're going to do something more than that? I think that's one is. It's interesting because I do expect a change to two percent full stuff, and anything

more complicated than that is. Yeah, it's use less. Yet, well, we would say a symmetric or asymmetric. There's an asymmetric debate. I had Charles Evans at the Council on Foreign Relations four weeks ago. That was the thunderous topic from Mr Evans of Chicago. Wonderful. Is there a symmetric study at the ECB and within Europe? Or is it as you say as Vanilla is two. It's true that when I ask people in Thankfort or in Paris, the definition of

price stability can difference. So sixteen years ago the definition and the clarification was close to but below two percent, and there is an asymmetric dimension in that. You're right is to be removed and interesting with That's really part of the story because how you get their obviously, man, explain to our audience, particularly in America, Explain the constraints Madame Legarde and all of the ECB have because of

the odd fiscal structure of Europe. I mean, this is not about having lunch and going on and I retreat to the castle. John, were you invited to the castle? To the retreat? I get, I asked Madame mcguard this morning, lost in the mail. But but but freend this is really important. I mean, they have huge institutional constraints because of the odd structure, don't they. Yes, they do. We

know all the flows. We know. It's not only about fiscal policy, by the way, that's something she made clear and when doing her hearings at the European Parliament, it's also about everything that is incomplete in the European Monetary Union. To him, thinking about the Capital Market Union, the banking Union. It's starting to move, lines of starting to shift, including

in Germany, but it's going too slow. And if you add that to the fact that we had austerity everywhere at the same time in the your area after the double deprecession, it's a recipe for disaster. She's been clear, just like to argue that we need more support from ciscal slash institutional reform. The risk, as you said, is that we're getting there too slow. In that next year, the first thing the CD has to do is to ease before we get there. Fred, just a final question.

As we approached this news conference, even the best of the best have come up against difficulties when they take on the role as the governor of a central bank. The president, the chairman saw it from BANANKI, we sent it from Yell and we saw it from Pal. Then things settle down. They find out that the best thing to do is to make it boring. It's that challenge, the same challenge for Christine the guard or can she

change the rules of how to execute these news conferences? Yes, I think the same as applies, except that she's very experienced in that matter, even if it's not an essential banker, and I'm quite convinced that she would avoid the biggest mistakes. Also, I think the focus and she's been lucky, but that a lucky about the timing the growth projections, inflation projections

today is likely to men broadly unchanged. She got time ahead of her and the time will be spent to really reflect on the strategy review to try and bring back some cohesion and and you know, unity, credibility, strength to the Governing Council for them to act if needed. I mean that's the question mark if they do need to do something, whether will they caturate again? Will they increase we yield, increase the issue limits? And those are

very difficult questions in a very difficult political environment. And for that to be credible, if she needs to do more, she first needs to bring everyone back to the table. And while we hear those famous words, whatever it takes, she's been reluctant so far. Great to catch up with you, Frederic Ducros either picked that Wealth Managements just this is an exceptionally important, too short interview with Ted Alden the

Council on Foreign Relations on China. Ted, what are the ramifications If the tariffs do not click in for China? Is that good news for them? How do you gauge what happens if we don't see new tariffs this this in three days? Well, I mean, the Chinese clearly want the tarra for it to de escalate. So if the US doesn't move ahead on December, if k that's good news for China. But but China is holding out for removal of some of the tariffs that have already been

put in place. That's a big they want to go first point in the current negotiate, they want to go further. Yeah, the talk seem to be about some kind of rat deal where the Chinese will agree to to make certain quantities of agricultural purchases and if they meet those, then gradually some of the tariffs that are already in place will come off. So so obviously no new terroriffs good news for the Chinese. But they want to go farther

than that. Why is this so difficult? I mean, if there's the blunt instrument of Team A wants three things and Team B wants three other things, you know, you sit down and you come to an agreement. What's the reason this time around that chemistry that that discourse is not working. I mean, I think part of it is that that what they're talking about is a pale shadow

of what the United States wanted. I mean, the Trump administration hope the tariffs would force some real fundamental economic changes in China, and now we're talking largely about a purchasing deal and maybe a bit of investment. So there's frustration on the U S side. Um. The other thing is the president. You know, he's been pretty clear about he loves tariffs, and so he's really sucked in to remove tariff. He thinks it's the best weapon. He thinks

the US is winning with the tariffs in place. So the Chinese, You're gonna have to provide something that he can at least brag about before he wants to see any of those tarrifts taken off. It said, when you look at what's happening outside of this trade negotiation between the United States and China, what you see is that a heart stance versus China is perhaps one of the only things, one of the few things that the Democrats and Republicans in Washington actually agree on. That supply chains

are arguably already decoupling. We've seen that news again this week with China. We saw it with Huawe as well, when they have their recent phone release. There's an argument is likely to get worse before it gets better. And from what I'm saying is that there's a habit of defining the current state of US China relations by wherever

we are in the current trade dispute. Is that a mistake ted well I I actually think the bigger issue is the one you mentioned, which is is the decoupling question, and a lot of that's happening in the technology space. I mean, you look at the Chinese announcement this week that they're going to get all foreign computers and software

out of their systems over the next several years. Uh, the recon executive order from the Trump administration for scrutinizing all foreign technology coming into the United States, particularly focused on China, the restrictions on Huawei and export control. I think, to a lot of extent, that's the real game. I mean, the tariffs have almost become a side show at this point.

What we're talking about the growing technology competition between the US and China, and I think increasing isolation between the two on that front. When do we see a new addition of failure to adjust, Well, I'll probably write write a different book. I'm kind of looking at where things go in the global trading system, so I probably won't be quite so domestically focused. But I know I need to get another book out there. Last one, folks. This is wonderful to say to Ted Alden because his books

are constructively and wonderfully incredibly dense, incredibly informed. I'm busting his chops there on whipping off another book, Ted Alden's book, Failure to a just I can't say enough about it, with a broad reach of what happened to our multilateral trade of truly forgotten generation? Ted Alden with a Council on Foreign Relations. We are in London. We're looking forward to this news conference taking place in frank Firt, Germany

with the new ECB President, Christine Legard. I can tell you she has entered the room with the vice President of the e c B, Lewis to Gindosi is currently standing in front of a whole host of photographers Tom having her photo taken. So she hasn't even managed to sit down yet and look at her notes and get in front of a microphone. Those photos are still snapping away. I think it's the smartest press conference, John, I mean it's very seriously. I think I think that the press

is more informed. There. There are more Michael mckeys, there are more you know, Steve Policeman and the others that ask smart, smart questions, and I think more importantly, Tom, you get some follow ups sometimes as well. There's a dialogue there with the journalists, and I think that's that's evolved over time. With the former ECP President Mario Dragi. We can now cross over to catch up with ECB President Christine Lagarde. Ladies and gentlemen, welcome to our press conference.

Today is the first time that I have had the privilege and pleasure of sharing the monetary policy meeting of the Governing Council of the ECB, and I'm delighted to proceed now with reporting on the outcome of our meeting together with my friend the Vice President. The Governing Council meeting was also attended by the Commission Executive Vice President, Mr Valdis Dombrowski. Based on our regular economic and monetary analysis, we decided to keep the key ECB interest rates unchanged.

We expect them to remain at their present or lower levels until we have seen the inflation outlook robustly converge to a level sufficiently closed to or below two percent within our projection horizon, and such convergence has been consistently reflected in underlying inflation dynamics. On November one, we restarted net purchases under our asset purchase program at a monthly

base of twenty billion euros. We expect them to run for as long as necessary to reinforce the accommodative impact of our policy rates, and to end shortly before we start raising the key ECB interest rates. We also intend to continue reinvesting in full the principal payments from maturing securities purchased under the APP for an extended period of time.

I passed the date when we start raising the key ECB interest rates, and in any case for as long as necessary to maintain favorable liquidity conditions and an ample

degree of monetary accommodation. The incoming data since the last Governing Council meeting in late October point to continued muted inflation pressures and weak Euro Area growth dynamics, Although there are some initial signs of stabilization in the growth slow down and of a mild increase in underlying inflation inline with our previous expectations, Ongoing employment, work growth and increasing wages continue to underpin the resilience of the Euro Area economy.

The comprehensive package of policy measures that the Governing Council decided in September provides substantial monetary stimulus, which ensures favorable financing conditions. For all sector of the economy. In particular, easier borrowing conditions for firms and households are underpinning consumer spending and business investment. This will support the Euro Area expansion, the ongoing built up of domestic price pressures, and thus the robust convergence of inflation to our medium term aim.

In the light of the subdued inflation outlook, the Governing Council reiterated the need for monetary policy to remain highly accommodative for a prolonged period of time to support underlying inflation pressures and headline inflation developments over the medium term. We will therefore closely monitor inflation developments and the impact of the unfolding monetary policy measures on the economy. Our forward guidance will ensure that financial conditions are just in

accordance with changes to the inflation outlook. In any case, the Governing Council continues to stand ready to adjust all of its instruments as appropriate to ensure that inflation moves towards its aim in a sustained manner, in line with its commitment to symmetry. Now, let me now explain our assessment in greater details, starting with the economic analysis. Euro Area real GDP growth was confirmed at zero point two percent quarter on quarter in the third quarter of and

changed from the previous quarter. The ongoing weakness of international trade in an environmental persistent global uncertainties continues to weigh on the Euro Area manufacturing sector and his dampening investment growth. At the same time, incoming economic data and survey information, while remaining week overall, point to some stabilization in the

slowdown of economic growth in the Euro Area. The services and construction sectors remain resilient despite some moderation in the latter part of Looking ahead, the Euro Area expansion will continue to be supported by favorable financing condition, further employment gains in conjunction with rising wages, the mildly expansionary euro Area fiscal stance, and the ongoing, albeit somewhat slower growth

in global economy. This assessment is broadly reflected in the December twenty nineteen Eurosystem Staff macroeconomic projections for the Euro Area. These projections foresee annual real g d P increasing by one point two percent in twenty nineteen, one point one percent in twenty twenty one point four percent both in twenty twenty one and twenty twenty two Compared with the

September twenty nineteen e c B staff macroeconomic projections. The outlook for real GDP growth has been revised down slightly for twenty twenty. The risks surrounding the Euro Area growth outlook related to geopolitical factors rising protectionism and vulnerabilities in emerging markets remain tilted to the downside, but have become

somewhat less pronounced. According to Eurostat's flash estimate, EU Area annual h high CP inflation increased from zero points seven percent in October twenty nine to in November, reflecting mainly higher services and food price inflation. On the basis of current futures prices for oil, headline inflation is likely to rise somewhat in the coming months. Indicators of inflation expectations

stand at low levels. Measures of underlying inflation have remained generally muted, although there are some indications of a mild increase in line with previous expectations. While labor cost pressures have strengthened amid tighter labor market, the weaker growth momentum is delaying they pass through to inflation over the medium term. Inflation is expected to increase, supported by our monetary policy measures,

the ongoing economic expansion and solid wage growth. This assessment is also broadly reflected in the December twenty nine Eurosystems Staff macroeconomic projections for the Euro Area, which foresees annual edge high CP inflation at one point two percent in one point one percent in twenty twenty, one point four percent in twenty twenty one, and one point six percent in twenty twenty two. Pastwenior, New York and Time keen

at Queen Dcoril Street in London. And this is a painful now, whether it's our senior executive, it her for Economic Stephanie Flanders. And I say so because the Evening of Rex said she had real leadership for this nation in describing what was going on the night of that referendum at the time, I believe I saw her in I t V. And it's painful, Paul, because we can't

talk about the election today. There's some very strict rules here, so tomorrow we'll talk to painful for me, I can show it, and I'd even like to talk about the thinking behind it, but I don't even think that's appropriate to do. So Instead, good news there's a many other things to talk about. Let's talk about the president's tweet in the idea of an exploding stock market SPX otter record highs DAL up a hundred fifty points, very butter stuff against record High's getting very close to a big

deal with China. They want it, and so do we. I think the President is the only one who thinks it's a big deal. Am I wrong? Well, he has waxed and waned about whether or not it was a big deal or it was a phase one deal. I mean, remember back in September he said he was going to be a comprehensive deal. Then a few weeks later he kind of backtracked and said it was a phase one deal. But we know that whatever gets announced, it will be the biggest Phase one or the biggest intermediate deal that

one has ever seen. Um. I think it's the big reminder from the impact of this tweet is that so many markets and so many asset prices around the world are now resting on this narrative, this twisting narrative around the trade war, and specifically, we have this kind of mini deadline coming up of whether or not the December fifteenth, of whether we will have um those new tariffs imposed on China after so many delays years ago. I had to read a lot on Bretton Woods, very I can

kids me about it. And there was an ancient Maynard Keynes, knowing he was at the end of his time in Bretton Woods in New Hampshire, providing wisdom, resilience and theory. And then you move forward to our multilateral trade experiment out of World War Two and there are others like Maynard Keynes providing wisdom and theory. The w t O is going down in flames. Where is the wisdom and theory right now? Well, I think it's a it's a

very good question. I mean, you have UM. There was Domino Kines analysis, you know, at that Breton Woods conference, as you know, the big battle. One of the big was about whether or not trade surplus countries like China has been for so many years, should be punished or pushed to to adjust in the same way that deficit countries often are. And I guess you could argue this is pretty I would say this is a bit of

a reach. But you could say if Keynes had had his way, maybe Donald Trump would not have had quite so much mileage over the last few years of the imbalances in trade between China and the US. But we're not there. We are here. We have seen a big change in the position of the w t O this week, written about extensively on Bloomberg by particularly our w t O reporter Bryce Brashuk, who has shown in chapter and verse how of the w c O is going to be stymied now by this US decision not to approve

any new judges for the appeals process. So the w t O as we know it is certainly is not even going to be able to play the kind of policeman role that it has played. And we are still in certain we do not have a kind of comprehensive approach. We have lots of tweets and we have lots of expectation around the negotiations underway with you go to the heart of the matter. You mentioned the police patrol of it,

the policing, the enforcing. I see no discussion forget about phase one, phase two, three, four, five of affecting enforcement that leads to mutual trust. It's like Thomas Shelling one O one, It's not there, is it? And I think that was one of the shifts that we saw and have been able to report on from the beginning of

this year. The way that Donald Trump presents approaches these negotiations, and of course the very different noises coming out of different members of his negotiating team at different times, has led to this situation where there is very little mutual trust. Where you look cut these two sides and say, whatever deal they come up with, if it is remotely hard to enforce or involves remotely any kind of mutual trust between the two sides, that is going to be lacking.

So I think some of the biggest discussions less certainly earlier in the process, have been precisely around enforcement mechanisms. And there's a good reason why we haven't seen we haven't seen serious people sign off on a deal. The market UH seventeen minutes ago, make it eighteen minutes ago, flat, quiet, a bit listless. The guard may be moving European rates with a higher yield UH and now exploding higher SPX

through the record highs. Nasdaq one hundred surges fifty points, a Dow UPO touching a new inter day highs and really buttressed up against record highs on the Dow twenty eight thousand ninety two on the dow or Stephanie Flanders, Senior Executive editor h here on the topics of trade after the president's tweet which forced this huge move higher, and now on really the interesting moment of Christine Leguard

at the European Central Bank. Let me just start with a general media question, Stephanie Flanders, how did she do? I think she did pretty well. But would we have having seen her in these other roles as Finance Minister for France and then ahead of the I m F I'm not sure we would have expected anything different. She

measured she also did she had. She started her questions session after having read the very traditional kind of statement, which we as we know didn't really go away from anything the markets had expected, to say something about how people should expect her to deal with them, how people shouldn't be hanging on every word here, so good luck with that, but also that she was going to be

her own person, and she took it. She took the initiative to talk about the thing that we were most interested in, which is this strategic review of ECB policies, and I would say shifted a little bit, decided, you know, stamped her own mark on it by saying it was going to be extremely broad, not as perhaps Marrow Drug has positioned, had positioned it implicitly as just a way to kind of fix the approach to inflation, to handle

the fact that inflation was just persistently too low. She said, we would be there'd be addressing inflation, the approach to inflation, but also the environment, also the need for social inclusion and inequality and all these things. So I think, um, that was helpful for her. Maybe some of those people who really wanted this to to force a change in the ECBs approach, a douvish change in the ECB's approach,

Well she's she's not giving that to them. And what's fascinating about this in Fox I would suggest that Christine Leguard possibly would say, forget about the French ministry, forget about the I MR for the ECB herding cats at Baker and Mackenzie and Chicago years ago. It was probably the toughest thing just in the two minutes one minute and a half I've got left with you, Stephanie Flanders.

Are we at a point yet where I happen to be with the I M F the degu Gopinath was was announced as the Director of Economic Research or reguard at the ECB, where we stopped worrying about women and men because these women are of such immense ginormous competence. Where we are we getting in economics at least to where we really don't care about the debate of more women involved, you know. I mean, maybe it's certainly becoming normalized and just having her there for several years is

going to make a difference. But I remember, even in Britain not to talk about this election, but the past elections we had Margaret Thatcher and there was a feeling that that had ended the discussion around a minister, and then there was another generation went by before we had

another one. So I think if you have to look at the next level, and I think the fact that Christine Lagarde was the only viable female choice arguably UM and we have had ahead of the I m F and we had of the head of the CB, but she's the same person, I think, tells you you still have to be concerned about it. Quickly. The director of the London School will of Economics most qualified to be the Bank of England has at another name to look

forward to. I think Manu Chafik, who is also known to any people in Washington for her time at the i m F is certainly the best thing is on her if you have um the kind of result that many of the polls before the polling day were suggesting, but there were plenty of There were actually several women who would have been extremely The chair of the Santander Street Badera would also been very good. So that's a good song. We're gonna finish up here. Stephanie Flanders with

Bloomberg Surveillance. Thanks for listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast. Subscribe and listen to interviews on Apple Podcasts, SoundCloud, or whichever podcast platform you prefer. I'm on Twitter at Tom Keane before the podcast. You can always catch us worldwide. I'm Bloomberg Radio