Surveillance: Fed’s Mester Says Policy in Good

you've got the wonderful mathematician from Cleveland, Loretta Mester. Yes, time we do. We'd like to welcome the Cleveland Fed Bank President Lorettamester to Bloomberg Television and Radio worldwide. Thank you for joining us on this beautiful morning, at least here in Boston. Uh looks like the narrative, President Mester, that the American people are going to be recovering more quickly and everybody anticipated might not be correct. I mean,

they're still spending money, but not at an increasing pace. Yeah, I mean I think this is probably what we should expect. Right. We have pent up demand coming back as the vaccinations have been distributed more widely, and that's a strong demand. We also have supply issues affecting the economy, and this interplay between demand and supply is what we're seeing in some of the data coming out, whether it be today's

retail sales report or the labor market reports. So the volatility month to month, I think is something we should expect. I think that what's happening, though, is that we do see the recovery continuing. It's just that we're going to have these months to month changes depending on which factors are more dominant. Is at the supply side or is

it demand side? And I think the bottom line is it just you know, we're really at the beginning of this vaccinations widely distributed part of the recovery, and I think we just have to, you know, wait and be a little bit patient and let the recovery continue. Well, we just got the CDC advice that people don't have to wear masks anymore. I can tell you people in Boston are still wearing masks as they are in New York.

Do you think that reluctance to go out and spend is going to fade rapidly now, Well, it's hard to see how rapidly. I mean myself, you know, I'm still you know, wearing masks when I go outside. I think it all is a good sign though, that we are getting to the other side of this. And I think that the vaccinations still have some further way to go. I think we need to distribute them more evenly across

the country. But as a that continues, as we can relax mask wearing for those who have been vaccinated, all of that is on a good path to get us back to some semblance of normal. And I do think people are going to feel more comfortable re engaging. I am feeling more comfortable re engaging, and I think I'm representing of others that you know, we have a reluctance.

But now as things continue on, and you know, we've intellectualized the fact that we have gotten vaccinated and we are protected, we're going to be more able and willing to go out and re engage. And I think we're going to see that, you know, over the rest of the year. This is where I put in my plug to come visit you in Cleveland and do the next interview there. Uh, neither you or I have had a

real chance to dig into these retail sales numbers. But the interesting thing about retail sales is they're reported in dollar terms, and so one would have thought that there would be a big impact from the April CPI numbers. Uh, what was your reaction to that and the idea that maybe inflation is accelerating more quickly than the Fed anticipated. Well, again, I think we're seeing the clash between you know, kentup demand, the surgeon demand, and some of the supply issues that

we're seeing. And coupled on, you know, with that also is the fact that the month you know, year over year number are really incorporating those very low inflation readings we had um last year. As those you know, come out of the numbers, we're gonna just seem mathematically inflation going up. But no doubt, you know, we're seeing some real supply constraints in particular areas. I think you were

mentioning lumber earlier. There's commodity prices, there's energy prices now with the pipeline issue, so you're we're seeing those in the inflation data. I think the real question for monetary policy is is that gonna you know, abate over the rest of the year as supply comes back on, as some of the stimulus checks that people have um are used up, and so I think we're gonna see that

play out. And my baseline scenario for inflation is that we're gonna have high higher inflation this year above two percent. But then as some of those constraints on supply ease UM, I think we're gonna see inflation go back down and we'll have to you know, monitor that as we go forward.

I'm really focused on inflation expectations because I think that is really where you know, you'll begin to see if those go up UM, and they're going up a little bit now, we'll have to look to see whether longer run expectations are going up, and that's really a key to me in terms of you know, where inflation is likely to go um over the longer run. Wall Street's favorite drinking game is the word transitory with BEETE officials,

how do you define transitory? How long is it? When would you know whether you're right or wrong about your inflation forecast? Right? So again, I think transitory is a word that was meant to convey whether those are supply issues that will abate over time and that's what push pushing up prices, or whether it really is in these underlying inflation measures. So far, we don't see right much impact on measures like the Cleveland Fits Median cp I and other measures that really try to look at what

the trend in inflation is. And the key to that is this real inflation expectations. So it really is going to depend on how long it takes her supply conditions to to ease and get back to normal, and that could take some time. It's going to depend on what commodity we're looking at. It's going to depend on what part of the economy we're looking at. You know, we all have talked about the chip you know shortage, that's

going to take some time. When we talk to our um contacts in the auto industries, many of them are saying it's gonna be six months to even nine months for that to get back to normal. So some of those transitory gives the impression of over and done very quickly. I don't think that's what we'll see. I think some of those are gonna last longer. But whether that gets embedded in underlying inflation rates, which is what the FED

looks at, that's a different story. And that in that sense, I think a lot of the supply conditions that are pushing up inflation now will abate over time. Well, there's definitely gonna be a staring contest between the Federal Reserve and the people on trading guests on Wall Street over the next couple of months we get this economic data. Are you gonna be able to resist pressure from the markets if they see concern about inflation and start raising rates.

I'm sure you'll tell me yes, you can. But traders also remember December of two thousand eighteen. You know, we have been very clear, I hope in UM telling everyone sort of our strategy and the fact that we want to see right it in the data. We want to not just based our our policy actions on what we project is going to be happening, but also seeing it

really in the data. And I think that's a really good strategy for times like this where you have demand and supply factors clashing and coming together and the outcomes

and the data. So again, you know, I think we're gonna be looking at outcomes are forward GUIDs tells us, you know, tells the markets and the public where what we're looking at we want to see inflation go up, and we want to see it be on track to go above two percent um and that's you know, what we're going to be looking at and basing our inflation on the inflation side, and we want to get back

to maximum employment. You know, we still are in spite of the pretty good labor market data we've gotten over the past several months. Despite last month's a little bit disappointment in that report, we're still making progress on the labor market side. But right again, supply issues are affecting those numbers too, and you know, we have to sort of continue on the path we're on until we get more people back into the labor market um and more

progress towards our goals. So again, I think we're seeing this play out in both labor markets and product markets, and the FED is just going to be focused on outcomes to see that, you know, and Greek calibrate our policy appropriately to the outcomes. What you're saying about the employment report, um, do you have a read on what happened there? Do you think that, uh, the enhanced unemployment benefits play a major role, is a lot of least

politicians thing. So I think a lot of things that are going on in the labor markets still reflects some moneys that we were talking about earlier in terms of re engaging. And I also believe that the and we hear this from our context all the time, the childcare

school reopening that is affecting the labor markets. I think people are making decisions based on those things, but the fact that they have the unemployment benefits gives them the financial wherewithal to actually be making those decisions, whereas in the past they may not have been able to make the decision they would like to meet be able to meet make because they didn't have the wherewithals. So in

that sense, it's interacting. But I think the main drivers are these other considerations in terms of the virus and schools, and that's why I think we're going to see some of that downward pressure on labor supply abate too over time, because I think as schools reopened, as people get more comfortable with the vaccinations being widely distributed, I think people will feel more comfortable coming back into the labor market, and we're gonna be watching for that. I certainly will

be watching for that. Um as we go through the

rest of the year. Let me ask you this, A number of people, including your former colleague Bill Dadley, the former President of the New York Fed have been speculating lately that the economy could rebound more quickly and more strongly than people anticipated, and that by the time you get around to looking at actual realized data, you will have passed maximum employment and the inflation danger will rise, and then you're gonna have to raise rates farther and

faster than you thought. What's your view on that? So, I think, you know, we are going to be watching very closely how the economy and the recovery evolves over the year UM as we get more data in so and we're guided by our our dual mandate goals progress towards there's goals. So yes, there's you know, uncertainty around the outlook, there's risks around the outlook. Things could you know, pick up faster than we anticipate, Things could go slower

than we anticipate, and we're prepared for that. I think we're in a good place right now with our policy, and we're going to adjust it as appropriate depending on how the actual recovery um progressive. So that's why this is, you know, not the time to really be adjusting anything

on policy. It really is a time for watchful waiting seeing how the recovery evolved, seeing how some of this apply constraints dissipate or not seeing what happens on the labor side, um and keeping focused on our dual mandate goals. So you know, I understand where bills coming from. I think the way I would what would I would say

in responses. We're well positioned now for upside and downside risks, and we're just gonna have to be patient where we are now and wait a little bit a little bit longer looking at the data to see where this recovery is going. But I'm very I have a positive outlook.

I think the outlook is bright. I just think that we need to let it continue on a little bit longer, because, you know, opening up the economy after such a deep, deep UH shocked downward right is proving to be you know, there's some some stumbles along the way, and I think we should have expected that, and I think that's what we're seeing in the data right now. Well, let me

ask you one last quick question. Do you think it's a foregone conclusion that when you finally talk about or talk about talk about UH tapering, that you're going to get a taper tantrum that the markets are going to try to reprice immediately and we're going to have a market disruption. Well, I mean, obviously that would not be a good outcome. I think we've been very clear and Share Palace been very clear that we are going to be communicating well in advance UM what our policy stance

is and where it's going. And my hope is that UM will be articulate enough UM and explain enough our rationales and and our UM expectations that we will avoid the worst UM in terms of the financial markets. I mean, bolatil and financial markets is what financial markets are. UM. We just want to make sure that you know, we're communicating as best we can our rationales and our approach to policy. And you know, we'll just have to wait

and see how how well we do that. Laura Best, the President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, thank you very much for joining us this morning here on Bloomberg Radio and television worldwide. Fantastic Marchael McKay that with President Mesta, always right to hit from President Mesta as well. Let me get onto our next guest, because she is very valuable. There are economists to come on here and

they warble gaily. And there are very few, I think John Taylor of Stanford University who actually have a Bloomberg function. Claudius Sam is one of our great thinkers, and she nailed the recession mathematics a number of years ago at the FED. And there is the some rule which you could find on the Bloomberg which shows a horrific recession of this instant pandemic. And then out we came to a better America. Except Claudia Sam and said, wait a minute.

The inequality that out there is tangible. Claudia, I want to get to the inequalities right now, and I want to get to what all case say from John Edwards is three America's you got an elite boom. You've got McDonald's and the rest of them telling us Amazon they're gonna hire low wage at a higher wage. And then there's the rest of America. How do we pull them

into the dialogue? Right This is absolutely the right question to be asking right now, because we have not in the past any good job policymakers getting a recovery for everyone. Up to this point. We've seen a lot of messaging, We've seen a lot of actions by Congress with the Rescue Plan, the FED with their new framework to say, we're going to fight for those people, to get everybody back,

particularly those from minoritized groups. But we got to see it, and what you see right now are the other two groups, the elite, the wealthy and the large corporations, making a lot of noise that they need to be taken care of, and not those at the bottom, Claudia. Within the three Americas, there's the idea of yeah, we get back, We're gonna be fully employed, fully employed, four percent unemployment rate, whatever

the number is. That math doesn't compute. If we have so many people left aside because of technology, because of education in the last twenty or thirty years, what's the program to actually pull them from a modern welfare state, however you want to call it into an actual productivity for America? Right? Well, are people are our most valuable asset, the thing that we should be investing in, and that's where and our infrastructure, right so physical infrastructure, invest in

our people. We have two proposals going to Congress in varying forms, like there's so much we can do in terms of investing in people and families in the next generation and our physical infrastructure. Those are the kind of things we need to do now, like we have to fight this recession. But it is not good enough to get back to pre COVID because pre COVID there were a lot of problems and frankly, our productivity as a country had slowed down. I mean we were all suffering,

and some were suffering even more. And we can fix that with good policy and a lot of push from markets too. I mean, the private sector has a big role to play. Also, Claudia, the complexity of productivity. And I really try, Claudia on a Friday not to talk about productivity. But I'll dive off the deep end here on productivity. It is about this strange m I t solo word technology. Are we less productive because we're overwhelmed by not the negative but just the realities of our

modern technology. So I don't want to point paint that dark of a picture. I will say, you know, productivity is the sum of what we do not know. Right is very hard to measure. It's very hard to really say where we're at and why it's slowed down. But we do know that education helping workers have stable lives, economic security, job ladders, right, Like, it's not even if we can't see it in the GDP data, Like, that's real,

that matters to people. So I don't want to like technology has always been with us, Automation has always been with us. That's not an excuse to throw in the towel here, Claudia, you're every Republican leaders worst nightmare. They won't they won't talk to you, They hang up the phone. They call hello, the Jane Family Institute. But we don't

want to talk to that wacko economists. Okay, but are the people of the Republican Party in sync with their leaders or do you buy what's percolating in Washington that President Biden can get societal support of Republicans even if he doesn't get the leadership support. Yeah, well, I will say I talked to Republican voters every day. That being parently, I grew up in Indiana. I'm not a political person.

I do think we need to have policy in an economy that works for everyone, but frankly, that is not like that's what everybody wants in the United States. There are big debates about how to do it best and what the role of government versus an old individuals are. But I think this is one where we the politics that are just crushing work in Congress, in the administration and have for decades. This is a real disservice to the American people. And I try and am I Lane

on the economics and not the politics. But it's it's it's hard to watch. It's a Brea exclusive, folks, it's a surveillance break exclusive here this morning, Claudius Um speaks to members of the GOP. It's an extraordinary mom mclaude. I want to go back to University of Michigan where you took your PhD. It's really been one of our hotbeds of inflation and research. What is your observation on the fear, the worry, the angst, the pendulum of inflation. Yes, I feel like we all just got a step back

and take a deep breath. Right, there's been a way too much attention to the last set of data points, whether it's jobs or inflation or today retail sales. Right, we have a twenty one trillion dollar economy. We have really tried to push it intentionally to get people back to work and back on track. This is exactly what we said was going to happen, right, Like, you can't get all excited about a historic forecast myths or like numbers are coming bigger than we thought because this world,

like the entire last year. I mean, remember last year, they were all way worse than we expected. Right, So I think there's just we're losing context. And I get it. It's scary, it's uncertain. But if you look at especially I look at the consumer expectations numbers, I mean, people they don't like inflation, this is true, but they will tolerated to a moderate level like three. This is not as long as wages are rising. But what is really really hard is not to have a job very great,

So we have to keep it in balance. I'm running out of time, Claudia, but very quickly. Here is the argument of corporations that they've got to pay sixteen seventeen dollars an hour going to overwhelm the Deep South that wants to pay seven dollars an hour. So there's gonna be a lot of adjustments in the labor market coming out of this. Again, we're a dynamic economy and it's so different across the country. But right now there's a lot of talk and we just have to. I mean,

these are business decisions. This is not something we can fine tune from Washington, d C. We've got to leave it there. Clodius, I'm thank you so much with the Jane Family Institute and their senior fellow today let's go to this right now. We are thrilled to bring you a Craig Moffatt, Michael Nathanson. Moffatt Nathanson. Of course for decades at Sanford at Bernstein, they are definitive on what we do in our houses and what we watch and when we watch it. Michael Nathan said, let me go

to you first. On Disney. I know, John's got a bunch of questions to to me, it was just simply they didn't have Mandalorian too. How much did Disney and Mr Chpeck miss Baby Grow Goo? They missed by about five to six million subs, and in the New Disney that really matters. So it's you know, it's perverse, but they crushed every other number but Disney plus subs, And unfortunately that's what happens on the stock trades. The way it does. I mean, it's the way it is, and

it's a battle out there. Craig Moffatt you've been doing this year is particularly the cabling of it, the routing of it, and what we do with our checks. What's the theme for you, Craig Moffitt right now into the summer in the streaming wars. Well, you know, as much as the streaming wars dominate the video side of it.

The companies that I cover, especially A T and T and Verizon, you can talk about media for them if you want, but fundamentally it's about It's about the wireless business and UM while streaming is sort of a benefit that they give away for free, the real battle is going to be on networks, capital investment. In five G you mentioned capital investment. I don't need to know. We

don't have time now for a treatment on Verizon. But are the traditional companies Craig Moffat, that you follow done pretending that they can be the companies that Michael Nathanson follows. Not entirely. A T and T is making a good go of it for for HBO Max for example. You know, the problem is all of HBO combined is less than four percent of A T and T. So well, it's a good story. Fundamentally, it's it's it's got to be about other businesses for them, because I'm just trying to

work out Disney Company has done nothing. Oh yeah, the stock has done absolutely nothing after a huge move into year end. Well, John, we had those two huge moves and it went to a level that you had to do all this fancy math. Some of the parts priced to sells multiples to justify where it was, and everyone who had a chance to buy it after the investor day they did and there was not you know, they were not buyers at that level. And you're right, you know,

we were neutral on the stock. We thought it had overshot valuation, and now we think it's gonna grownd lower and there'll be at some point we've become constructive on it. But we had a hard time looking at thinks some of the parts. Right, we're earnings and cashul analysts, and we thought, look, let's just wait for a better entry point, which I think is gonna happen. Well, let's talk about what drives that better entry point. Michael, what do you think it is? What's the cantalyst for a move live

from here? Well, I think it's some of the air coming out of the evaluation on on Disney Plus. Right. The people were using ten times revenues on to get to a Disney Plus number. Right. So I think Disney Plus has been a great story, but one third the subscriber base has come from India with an are proved less than a dollar, right, So you need to you need to be cautious on how quickly you want to give it a Netflix status on evaluation, and that's been our point. So I think it's just more focus on,

you know, what's the dination Disney Plus. It's been a great story, but it's probably not worth two llion dollars today. The problem with you guys, as we spend all our time our love with Michael natesans is because it's romantic to talk about Disney and all that. Craig, you get no love. I'm going to Craig Moffitt right now, folks on the boredom of my cell phone bill, T Mobile and all that. The biggest unseid success Craig Moffitt in decades has been Legare and T Mobile. Does T Mobile

continue to crush American cell phone competitors? Yeah, flat answer, guests, Um, you know, we think about it. This is a company that has been priced six percent below A T and T and Verizon in their consumer prices for for cell phone service for years, in large part because their network wasn't as good. Now we're going into the five G cycle where not only are they cheaper, but they're gonna have the best network of any of the three of them,

and it's kind of worse to first. Stories are very rare in American business, and when you find them, they're really exciting. Did they sustain that? Can they stay first? I mean you look at T Mobile as a premium and sustainable cash flow, Yeah, because I mean, telecom cycles are not one and two years long. You don't build a network in a couple of years and then somebody passes you a year or so later. These are ten and twenty year cycles. And so we're going into the

five G cycle. It's coming to last well more than a decade um where T Mobile takes a a sustainable early advantage and likely holds it for a decade. So they're in years into this cycle already, and they've got another ten years in front of them, you know, Michael Nasans, and I gotta bring it back to you. I guess everybody's still changing. Netflix. They had the huge success MAK the Oscars, and they had Queen's Gambit and the rest

of it. What's their pipeline look like, and they still wedded to the pipeline to keep Paramount Plus and Disney and the rest of them away. Yeah, you know, it's interesting. They've hitted dry patches everyone has just because of the pandemic.

But they're gonna come back with a ton of content in the second half of this year, and they put a lot of emphasis on big movies, so you're gonna see some major block buses coming from them that you have thought were you know, theatrial releases will be on Netflix.

So there's a bit of a temporary pause. Um, we think towards you get to the fall, you start saying that, you know, what you described as those previous hips coming back, But you have a period now where HBO Max is probably gonna take a lot more share just because they have theatrial release movies that are going on from Max day and day. So we have a bit of a

slow period before I think it keeps up again. You know in the fourth quarter, Michael, I wonder whether we're reaching that point where people look around at the cost of all these streaming business and just say I'm not doing this anymore. Pants here there, ten pants here, ten dollars, fifteen dollars wherever you might live, Michael, and they just say no more. I'm done. Because we've been talking about competition, and I noticed the Netflix miss big miss, the Walt

Disney subscribers, miss big miss. Is something brewing here, yes, John, And we think this is what's brewing here is you had a year of a major pull forward right when we've been doing this. We're doing this from zoom past two months. If you're stuck at home, you're streaming, you're not doing anything else but streaming. Thank god, we're getting out of our house. When when the world opens up, I think people will look at their bills and reassess.

So we have a thesis that you know, we think streaming wars will pick up, but also streaming consumer adoption will slow the next couple of quarters. So you know, we've not recommended Netflix and Disney. Those are great trades last year. So we're more we're most we're more secrecal, you know, averagising based names as economic strengthened. And that's that's been the call. We think it's the right call.

But your your point is right. As consumers change their their spending behavior, some of those streaming services will see either hired churn or less adoption. Se it's taking me to Facebook essentially, those kind of niks Facebook Google, those are the names snap Um. Although you say, hey, you know, doesn't everyone to recommend them, they're still really attractive stocks given the growth that look both of you jump in here. Unfortunately, think this goes to Michael Craig. I'm sorry for that,

but the Super League English Football uproar. What's it mean for the jillions of dollars that's negotiated for this strange game called socker? Well, you know that's a questions, that's a Greig question. Yeah, I was gonna you know, the the Premier League just renewed UM with a flat contract. In fact, they didn't even open it up to two bidding in the UK. So they've renewed with Sky so it stays on and I think probably that as it turns out, works out well because I don't know that

they needed the extra publicity. There's a lot of animus over the whole the whole Super League debacle, and it's a lot of unhappy fans that still have a bad taste in their mouth, Craig, go on, Michael, Yeah. Ironically, although football prices in Europe were flattening, in America, the prices keep going up. Right. Our markets really tied the multi sport in a way that Europe isn't, so we keep seeing steady increases in sports cost here, Craig, we

never get too told much. I'm sorry, let's talk. He's always taking your ad time, Craig. We've gotta leave it there. Craig Muffett and Michael Nisenson of Muffin Nights and Nipois at Senia Research as well analyst. This is barn On an important conversation, and ever more important from what we heard from CDC yesterday. GJ. Gronville is a real deal with a PhD from Johns Hopkins and T cell receptor work.

Think Catherine Zada Jones. It's about zeta proteins and something called c D three zeta change and the rest of it. Look at the Wikipedia on T cell receptors and you'll go oh. She joins us now from the Center for Health Security at Johns Hopkins, Dr Gronville, I want to cut to the Chase, I'm gonna be in a restaurant. My mask is off. The places again packed as we're all getting back to, how do I know that somebody's not vaccinated and what does it mean within the immunalogy

in that restaurant? Right? Yeah, you don't know that everybody is vaccinated, and by fully vaccinated mean two weeks after your final dose um and you will You could be exposed if community transmission is high. It's just that with your vaccine, you're able to fight that off. Okay, you're able to fight it off. But the whole family doesn't

have vaccines. Somebody under twelve, maybe an infant? Are you kidding me on a game theory basis, with all of your expertise and T cell receptors, your work at Sloan Kettering, great, is this actually gonna work? I am not going to take my unvaccinated eleven year old too inside a restaurant at this time. That is absolutely the case. But I have less concerns about myself and my thirteen year old, who I took to get vaccinated yesterday, once he's fully vaccinated.

So yeah, I mean, people have to make decisions based on their own circumstances. It's just that it'll be safer for the people who are in the restaurant or working the restaurant if you're vaccinated, for sure, and it'll be safer for everyone who gets who gets a vaccine. And this is a really difficult decision for parents right now. Doctor they're trying to work out to what degree that children are at risk from this virus. Do we have

better answers now? Well, I mean, children do get sick and and people have I mean just not in comparison to adults. Adults have had much worse outcomes when it comes to COVID than kids. But um, if you look at the numbers, about twenty two million children have gotten sick from COVID, and um, if you look at the rates of hospitalization, it's worse than aged one and one flew in two thousand nine for kids. So it's by

comparison it's not as bad as adults. But kids do get sick, so, um, they still need to take precautions and if they're twelve are over they really should be vaccinated. If they're twelve or under, How long does this go on for for the children of this country or the children around the world, believe me, I'm I'm waiting to I think the everyone thinks that maybe August September that we'll start opening up to being able to vaccinate younger,

younger kids. I mean, I look, Axios just published moments ago Mike Allen doing a great job over there, and Dr Gronville, you know, they take the spin of what we're doing with c d C and call it liberation Day, is it. I I didn't find wearing a mask to be all that inconvenient, and um I I saw it as a way of being courteous to other people. But um it has become obviously a very polarizing issue. So okay, let's let's go to the realities here, what we see

in the hospitals as well. How will this change for the essential workers you know, still courageous in the hospitals. Yeah, so so, I mean, I think it'll hopefully the community transmission will go down, so hopefully they will have more, you know, more resources to attend to the patients they have. UM. I think that that we need to still do more

to bring vaccine two people. There are a lot of essential workers not in the hospital but in other places who can't afford to take the time off to be able to get vaccinated, so we still have access issues in this country that we need to address. Don't appreciate it's on this morning. Thank you. It's gonna say dot G Grounville. We really appreciate your perspective. Jones, help Kins, censer for the Health Security Sadia Scarla. This is the

Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Thanks for listening. Join us live weekdays from seven to ten am Eastern on Bloomberg Radio and on Bloomberg Television each day from six to nine am for insight from the best in economics, finance, investment, and international relations. And subscribe to the Surveillance podcast on Apple podcast, SoundCloud, Bloomberg dot com, and of course on the terminal. I'm Tom Keene and this is Bloomberg