Surveillance: Eurasia Group Top Risks 2021

Bloomberg dot Com, and of course on the Bloomberg. It is the Eurasia top risks Ian Bremmer's with us, the president of Eurasia Group, the driving force of what has become a Jeeves zero America, and joining us now a gentleman from the Commonwealth of Massachusetts, Joseph Kennedy is a former congressman because he went after that far left Senator Mr Markey and went down in flames. That's the latest treatment that we've seen in the newspapers. The former unemployed

congressman joins us right now. Joe Kennedy, thank you so much for joining us. I would love to know your view of Mr Biden is the last of your grand uncle's Democratic Party, what he needs to do to bring normalcy to the Democratic Party, to find a democratic center versus what is perceived by so much of America is a far left looks tough. Good morning, um, and thanks

for having me, and wonderful to be with you. But I think you have in the president elects somebody whose service, whose dignity and decency, and at his core, a politics that is about building consensus and putting in that hard work to bring people together. Is literally defined who Joe

Biden is. I think you're you're gonna see that. We've already seen that outstretched hand to an American public across the flippal spectrum to try to ask, he has said many times, heal the wounds of of these past years. The question is going to be, is that outstretched hand

going to be met? And what we've seen already in the past coming days you all just alluded to this is from leaders of the United States Senate rather than folks that for people that know better and know the damage that they might very well instill upon this country, on our institutions and honor democracy. Rather than trying to turn the page and actually restore our country to doing that hard work, are trying to put ego and political

ambition ahead of the good of the nation. And I it's not very often these days that I have been left speakless because I've been expecting um communi erosion here. But but this is quite something not all grew up with your advantages, the history of the all BBN in school in Boston and not to Stanford and such. Ian Bremer took a different path. Tom Kane took a different path,

and all of that was in a different America. How far is this two thousand twenty one America removed from that of your father, from that of your grandfather, from the rest of your family. How far are we removed

from the Kennedy of another time? I think part the island as we're seeing is unfortunately, I think, in many respects, were not far enough removed from those challenges that the number of times Dolan and Ian and I have had this conversation as well, the number of times of the course the past year eighteen months that you hear these

questions about comparing are not insignificant. The battles that are on the front lines today about racial justice, about economic dignity, about trying to ensure that this is a country that actually meets its founding ideals of equality in the pathway for all those art That's what the end of the sixties was all about. That's what these are the fights

on the forefront today. And I think in many regards that the challenges that knowing what we know that you've got a government as an institution that continues to lag behind the will of its people. And and very briefly here I agree with what in articulated in these challenges. But you look at look at what has happened on state ballot initiatives, on public referendum, on minimum wage, on voting rights, on healthcare. It is very clear where the

country wants to go. The obstacle at this point is the government that continues to put up roadblocks and to prohibit our people from getting there. But Congressman, good morning from London. Is it that clear? I mean, many people still voted for President Trump. And how does Joe Biden actually bring the nation together? You know, as as Ian put it, it's it's a very divided country, probably the most divided in the last couple of centuries. So a

couple of things. One, when you look at those issues like ballot initiatives, there's a clear pathway for their minimum wage has raised, a minimum wage has actually brought appeal across many parts of the country. We've seen voting rights have increased um popularity across the country. We saw that in Florida two years ago with the ballot initiative that restored voting rights to convicted felons, while Donald while Republicans actually want a governorship there in a Senate race in

a very tight rate. So there are, in fact policies here that have widespread support. We've had a number of states that have increased access to healthcare through Medicaid expansion, yet having a Republican party continue to put up obstacles to it. So I think on many issues here, it's not quite as divided as a Republican leadership or Republican base would like you to believe. Without question, it's a

divided country. Yes, I'd also point out that for all of the challenges we're seeing, we're not the challenges that we've seen. We haven't seen the level of of unrest and violence in our streets that we've seen in other parts of our century. So look, I'm not gonna sit here and try to kind of paper over the real challenges we have. I think what you have here those You've got a president of the voice of the American public that spoke and elected Joe Biden has said we

want to actually heal those wounds. The ultimate question is whether though that effort going to be met with a good faith effort by Republicans in Washington Congress. And let me get in also, Ian Bremer, Ian, Yeah, I just want to say that there's no question I think Joe and I would agree that, UM, Joe Biden has the temperament, the inclination, the experience to truly try to reach across the aisle and bring the country together. But but no

one's arms are long enough in this environment. I mean, domestically, the ability to pass the two three trillion dollar additional stimulus that clearly would be necessary this year. Unless the Democrats pull off two seats in the Senate races in Georgia UM tomorrow, UH is a dead letter UM. And internationally, there are so many that prefer to see Joe Biden to Donald Trump, but they also recognize that they don't believe that they can trust the United States going forward.

They see how divided it is, their skeptical, they understand how Trump could have won, and indeed their watch change. Everything that's playing out in the United States right now is being magnified all over the world. And when I saw the Europeans cut that new Chinese multilateral trade deal just a week ago, right before Biden becomes president. That's a hedge, that's a really significant hedge from a lot

of leaders that are thinking to themselves. I don't really believe that Biden is going to be able to accomplish what he says he wants to do. We can't come back to the United States that we once had and clearly so many people would like to see on the global stage. And I I don't disagree with you, Congressman to that, And how do you think, Yeah, I said, I don't disagree with you. I do think that the optimists in me here just points out the fact that this is in fact a choice. Right. This is not

because Joe Biden doesn't want to get there. It's not because I think most of the Democratic Party wants we do actually want to heal those ones and move forward. What we need is Republican leaders to be able to meet us halfway. And what we've got that that is

in fact what we're seeing play out. And I think, uh shocking ways so far to have twelve U. S. Senators that they're going to actively dispute the certification of the electoral College and they know better, right, um, So, this is the underlying fundamentals that you point out are I agree with the question. I think in large part is going to be left to American political leadership to have the choice as to whether they want to sew that disruption or they want to move our country forward

into a more powerful position in the twenty first century. Congressman, has President Trump actually changed US politics forever in US democracy? Uh, He's certainly changed it for the short and intermediate term. And look, I think that hud percent agree with in the analysis here that what you're seeing is essentially twelve Republican centers as of now that have political aspirations that know in order to be successful for the presidency that they are going to need to have the support of

a Donald Trump base. And I think that Donald Trump is going to remain the loudest voice in the Republican Party until there is a next Republican president, or at least for the next four years. And again, that is a choice that Republicans have to make as to whether they're going to continue to countenance, forget the kind of irrationality or the norm breaking or anything else. Once again, actions that border on, if not cross legality and yet another reason why a president could and should be, in

my mind, impeached. Joseph What you just tried to do, Joe Kennedy. I want to circle back to where we were at the beginning of trying to stagger into two thousand twenty one. Republicans, Democrats all disaffected. Dr Bremer and his report mentions college educated urbanites is defining your Democratic party. How does your party get to the labor centric a leaf that was in other generations? How do you get back to labor support? What's the what's the actual method

of doing that? The actual method doing that is showing up and fighting for working families across this country. And yes, obviously I think we would all agree we should be about expanding access to education and access to higher education. But that does not mean you leave behind people that, as we say, shall or after work rather than before.

That means that you've got to understand that the policies that for on all a long time Democrats have championed about increasing access to opportunity, that if people still didn't get them because of the get that opportunity, because the barrier's domestic or international, that they've not felt left behind. They have been left behind and for Democrats to not recognize that and not turn around and say, hey, we're gonna fight for YouTube. That has been Donald Trump's observation.

And that's part of that success um that he's had in his rhetoric, if not the political the policy of him. That Ian Bremer within the top risk that you right up here on the United States of America, there's just the time ticking on the demographic changes out into the two thousand thirties, the two thousand forties. What do you perceive over the next one, two, three and even five years is being the democratic shift in what it will

do for our politics? A demographic shift, I should say. Well, one thing that's exciting, um is that when you look at millennials that are educated around the world. Um, you're not just talking about white full You're talking about you know, emerging markets suddenly dominating and sharing ideas. I mean, when I was a kid growing up in Chelsea, Massachusetts and the projects, you know, not that far from Joe by the way, you know, I didn't know any of those kids.

I wasn't into K pop, for example, I wasn't share ring, I wasn't on Fortnite, you know, sort of doing gaming with kids from India or Cambodia or whatnot. Millennials today are doing that. And one of the reasons why climate

change is really moving. And if there's one place that Biden will truly be effective compared to Trump, it's in actually embracing a post fossil fuel trajectory for the US government in the U s economy, precisely because the markets have already been moving in that direction for some for some time. But they're doing that because young people all over the world are connected to a global understanding that climate is going to screw them as young people in

the future if they don't actually take action. So there are reasons to believe that millennials will be more global, they will be more connected, they will be less stovepiped. But but that is those are not the people that are running Washington right now. And and that demographic shift you're talking about, when so many Americans are feeling disenfranchised, when so many Americans are are are taking it on

the chin on the back of this coronavirus. Not those of us in the knowledge economy that can socially distanced, but those that are stuck, the essential workers that are treated like anything, but and that that gap, that gap is immense and painful and drives incredible risk and uncertainty in Ian. Thanks so much and Bremer there of your Asia group, and we'll talk a lot more about climate change. And thank you to the former Congressman, of course, Joseph

Kennedy of Massachusetts. A quick look at the chart of oil. Maybe it is the chart here of the day Brent crude when we knew it above a hundred dollars of barrel for sustained time, and then the collapse of oil and of course in negative prices that we saw earlier this year, back to fifty dollars a barrel. That's a precursor for Daniel Jurgen. The New Map is his new book. It's my book of the year. It is just a beautifully written exercise in our geopolitics and the course of

oil and the new oil. I should say as well, Dan, you're going wonderful to have you with us here with Dr Bremer. I need to go right to our immediate geopolitics. What should President Biden's approach be to Saudi Arabia and to Russia. I think his approach to Saudi Arabia will be measured to Saudi has not been looking forward to a Biden presidency. There will be new stresses in the relationship, and there will be no sword dance as there was

when President Trump made his first visit there. I think, so it will be a different relationship, and Saudi Arabia will be doing some things to try and uh, you know, kind of amiliorated, but it will be frosty. The check on Russia, it's obviously what there will be always a discussion how do we get back into some reasonable relation ship with Russia. But after this massive cyber attack on government and private business, that's just gonna make it much

more difficult. So it starts off on a very bad foot. And you ask, once again what were the Russians thinking? What did they achieve by doing this? The commanding heights of oil at fifty dollars a barrel? Are they commanding heights or is it a oil global oil complex that is desperate and fragile. I would say it's more of the latter, because well, it's said it is creeping out of that virus alley of fifty. It's now just a

little over fifty if you look at Brent. But you have a big overhang of oil UH supplies in terms that OPEC and non OPEQ OPEC plus are holding back. Plus you have the question of whether there will be some dialogue between the US and Iran that will relieve sanctions on Iranian oil. So there's a lot of overhang. But the good news is that is virus. You know, it's not as asks it should be, but as vaccination spread,

as economies will open up again. One result of that will be more economic activity and oil will get into an area that is would support future investment, which has really been cut very dramatically over the last year. Daniel, good morning from London. Are we going to see peak oil sooner than we think because of climate change action,

because of concerns surrounding fossil fuel and carbon emission. Well, I think that is the probably that an energy transition are the two big questions that you run into in oil circles, energy circles around and climate circles around the world. I still think that peak oil peak demand is probably about a decade away. We're seeing these announcements about banning

internal combustion engines. Let there will be twenty thirty or twenty five on the other side, you're gonna add other billion people or so to the world economies hopefully will recover. And so I don't think it's as imminent as we think. And something else people forget is in for instance, the United States, cars stay on the road for twelve to fifteen years. You don't just go away somewhere. So I think it is an energy transition. I think it's a

longer process than snapping your fingers. And how do you see this developing? Well, it's so funny. I mean, you know, the the lifespan of a horse, uh is about twelve to fifteen years. And you know, once you got the steam engine, you still didn't, you know, crush the horse population until after the existing horses no longer had a lifespan, and then you just stopped. And then within one generation horses went to about ten percent of what they were before.

They became useful for entertainment and for food, and that was it. And the question is is that where we're going with cars, with with you know, with a mission, with with the combustion engines. Uh. Look, it's it's an

extraordinary change. Um, when you have the United States government with by far the most important uh, appointment that by and is making is John Kerry, who ran for president, who was Secretary State, who believes he should have been president, certainly thinks he's smarter than than Joe Biden, and he's and he's creating a new cabinet position that will be staffed to focus on climate, climate climate. I think it's

a massive shift. And by the way, I think one of the more interesting things that we're gonna see over the coming year as the Americans as a polity start taking this very seriously as a government, is that we're gonna want to look forward after these ten years when it's no longer as much about fossil fuels. Who's gonna dominate these new technologies? And you know, under the Trump administration, if you want to talk about solar or wind or

electric vehicle infrastructure, you're talking about China. So actually this is going to create more geopolitical competition between the two largest economies, the U. S And China. Then a lot of people might have thought thinking, oh, when the Americans talk about I'm gonna be clumb by off for everyone together, Actually a lot more geopolitical competition coming. I think, if

I can, if I please do it, please do. That means that the supply chains, you know, the supply chains of oil have always had a lot of tension around them. As Ian is saying there's gonna be tension now around the supply chains because look at the way China dominates the lithium ion battery supply chain. One thing about cars, it's very interesting. If every car in the world today was an electric car running on wind and solar, you would reduce emissions CO two emissions by about six percent.

So you have to look at the whole totality in terms of really having an effect. But if you look at where the automakers are, their investment is certainly shifting to electric cars, so they see that there is going to be a tipping point. Daniel, you're gonna dr Bremer mentions John Kerry I said on a stage in Davos with John Carey, and he was really quite something. The

facts involved the knowledge basity on climate change. He also has a knowledge base that there is a U WES Senate Heaven forbid, if one senator went from the prize and read it, and then they went to the quest and read it, and then they went to the new map and read it, could you have a Senate that would go along with President Biden and support some form of political climate change policy, or does the Senate block all No. I think well, it depends, uh what happens

tomorrow in Georgia. But on that's in a very near term. I think that you would have people supporting it. But I think it's a question of understanding the time frames involved in the cost. And Ian's report about the risk makes makes a very important point that may not be looked at right now, but it's the cost of COVID

and the cost of dealing with COVID afterwards. So government's budgets are going to be strained between what they want to do in terms of climate and energy transition on one side and actually continuing to heal the economy on the other. So there will be a fiscal pressure there that will also have to be part of the equation. Yeah.

And you look at the countries like Brazil and India that are very carbon intensive on the back of all of this that, you know, it's going to be very very hard for them in a post COVID environment to say we're gonna get on in aligne with all these countries. Yeah, yep. And is it two tenus to make the link between you know, Russia oil rich country, sad Arabia oil rich country, and what role they have to play do you politically?

So if Russia sees the price of oil go down peek oil, maybe sooner than we think, do they become more belligerent? Um? I think Russia is becoming more belligerent because generally they are a country in decline um, and they blame the United States for that and Putin has control, where in the case of the Saudiast, I mean, I do think that this is going to move them more quickly towards diversifying their economy. It's gonna and they may not be effective, and some of their vision jin is

obviously pie in the sky. But but I think they're gonna be buffeted much more by their environment, where in the case of Putin, he's angered by that, he's lashing out. So belligerents is the right question when you talk about moscow Ian bremer with us. It is the top risks of two thousand twenty one. And we think Daniel Jurgen of I H. S Market and of course his new book The New Map uh most readable. Dr Jorgina thank

you so much. Right now, not spin but science, and I want to pause here and say that our team all through two thousand twenty I thought had great leadership on speaking to science into political experts of how to handle this pandemic. David Nebarrow will join us with the World Health Organization here, but I need to turn to the chairman of your age, your group, Cliff Cupchain, right now on their take on two thousand twenty one and COVID. Cliff, before we get to Dr Nobarrow, help us here with

the distinction of your COVID risk. The COVID risk is that the scar tissue, the lingering effects, the effects, the economic impacts of COVID are going to go away quickly or easily. For a few reasons. We will have within every country the so called K curve. Different socio economic groups recover different rates, usually have growing inequality. Internationally, you will have different rates of recovery, of multi speed recovery

based on vaccine access and other rollout factors. So what what will you have as a result of this carcasue? You'll have instability, You'll have anti incumbent anchor and a lot of elections coming up in Latin America, for example, and you'll have a debt crutches as as lenders become more discriminated, a lot of emerging markets are gonna have trouble getting capital and that's going to create big pressure in debt markets this year. David and Borrow, thank you

so much for joining us. Thrilled to have you answer two thousand twenty and for you to provide a voice here to start the year. I want to speak not about cases which I can't count, or deaths general trust, but the hospitalization surge in the sinceanity over the long weekend that we can't get vaccinated fast enough. What is the the Borrow solution to jump start the rate of

vaccinations and double dose vaccinations? Thanks very much. Indeed, there is no alternative but to make vaccines available as widely as possible as soon as they get approved. I don't want any corners to be cut on the approval process. So each vaccine must go through their Phase three trials and then be properly assessed by national regulators as well

as by the World Health Organization. But that's the only option that we have if we're going to rely on vaccines to get this pandemic to subside just one last point.

Vaccines won't be enough on their own. We will need to continue to pay attention to the rules that were set over the last few months about physical distancing, mask wearing, isolating when sick, looking after those who are frail and vulnerable, because these basic principles, backed up by strong public health work at local level, still will be key for the coming months even years, to enable societies to get on

top of this pandemic. Dr Nabarro there were trials with vaccines and they told us, for example, Fiser, that you take the first dose and then you have to take a second dose after three or four weeks. Does it make a difference, And how much of a difference if

you delay that second dose by months. What we're seeing now is more and more countries wondering whether a wide spread use of a single dose of one of these vaccines may in the end be more effective at helping slow down the pandemic and reduce suffering than making sure that everybody receives their two doses at four weeks or so intervals. I am not really at this stage able to come out in favor of one option or the other,

because they are so situation dependent. The move towards a longer interval between vaccine doses reflects an anxiety in some countries that this situation is so intense that to protect health services, getting single shots into as many people as possible is the only right way to go. But as you picked up during the last few days, there's been quite a lot of controversy over exactly how to go

down this quite experimental path. Yeah, there's also a lot of controversy and you know, a lot of citizens calling symbolic vaccination programs because a lot of the European countries have the vaccines, but they're just not administering them quickly enough. Would you ask countries to be quicker to find more ways of finding pharmacies for example, to administer these vaccines

not only hospitals. Yes, So that what this really means is that the administration of vaccines must be thoroughly planned. We know from so many different campaigns that if you don't have proper planning at local, state, national, regional and global level for the use of scarce vaccines, especially when you're in a crisis situation, you can end up with a lot of waste and indeed quite a lot of

potential errors being made. I really would like to appeal to every leader just to really slow down a bit on the rush to get the vaccine into as many arms as possible and put more time into systematic planning of what has to be a really effective global operations. David, you went right, David, you went right where I want to go. I want to go to you on this and then the Cliff if we have time dr to borrow. This is real simple. It's about federalism versus state distribution

as well. Do you have any optimism or any trek record that the United States can provide a polio equivalent or a diphtheria equivalent from a hundred years ago, a hundred and twenty years ago. Can we do that with the state mess we're in versus a federal application. Well, you will anticipate Tom that I'm I'm to have to say, not only should they be national and state planning that he's done from the center in the United States, there's

also got to be global planning. This is a global pandemic accelerating just because we must have a global response, because just because the time day. But I want to, like Cliff in here to be sure he has a voice in this cliff. Do you see any ability of President elect Biden to create a more federal mandate in America versus the state centric mandate of President Trump. I think the President Biden president like Biden, is going to have much more moral suasion capability, much more talent to

do that, much more commitment to do that. These are state state programs. We have to get the funding to them, we have to enable the infrastructure. But I do think a big voice like Ms Merkel has done in Europe is gonna probably make a difference in making this more successful. The only hope we have, and I think we're gonna get not to a good place, but to a much better place than we are right now. We've got to

leave it there. We could go all the guess the quality of this with the Top Risks of Eurasia Group. We could do what we could do, like a ten hour show today, Francine, maybe we ought to do that. Do a ten hour show, an hour with Dr bar, an hour with Mr Kupchin and uh and Ian Bremer. It's gonna be great. Dr Nabarrow, don't be a stranger. Thank you so much for joining us with the world Health Organization. There's a special edition of the show this morning.

Francing and Lakwad in London. I'm Tom Keane in New York and we've been doing this now for a good number of years with Ian Bremer and Cliff Kupchin, Eurasia Group chairman is with us right now the Top Risks of two thousand twenty one, and I can tell you that December of two thousand twenty was more than unusual, which makes for must reading of their top risks. Look

for that release today by your Asia Group. It is really terse, sharp reading on climate change, wonderful section that I learned a lot, frankly on the hacking and cyber threats, and I really want to draw your attention to their oil and climate paragraphs. And of course, Daniel, you're going to join us in the next hour. My book of the year, the New Map. Last year the Top Risks of Eurasia Group absolutely nailed the challenges of Europe, not

predicting a successful outcome to Brexit. It has come to pass. I believe joining us now is a gentleman from Germany with immense perspective on this. Sigmar Gabriel is a former German Foreign Affairs minister, but that barely touches upon his domestic politics of Germany and his association with length of tenure, going back to Billy Brant among others, and were thrilled that Mr Gabriel could join us this morning. Sigmar Gabriel.

What will be the legacy of Chancellor miracle and particularly the replacement of her European leadership christ and good morning to everybody. Um. If you ask me how the Germans and maybe others in Europe will look back to the chanceorship of Angela Michael, I would say at first that during her term it's at the end, it will be sixteen years. She will be seen as a leader which steered Germany through heavy waters in difficult crisis which we were faced with. I remember when we started together at

the government two thousand thirteen. After a few weeks we had the crimea crisis, then we had the crisis in Greece, then the euro crisis at then the end of the term the refugee crisis. So her her chanceorship will be seen as a successful leading the country and leading Europe through major crisis at the at the beginning of the century. Click coption just since you've written the top risk, we

have of course seen a successful Brexit negotiation. How do you and Dr Bremer perceive Europe in two thousand twenty one? Is it fractured or can can it coalesce around a theme? Perhaps? And say Mr mccong, we think that the main challenge facing Europe is lack of leadership, that that after the real Queen of hero of Angelo Merkel steps down, mccram will take over. He'll be as your episode pre eminent leader. Anyway,

he will be distracted by his own domestic politics. And and we fear that if we're more stimulus money is needed, there's no sort of space for a creative new fiscal deal. That that foreign policy could get very complicated with Turks in the Eastern Mediterranean, and that we could even see a resurgence of populism as the scar tissue of COVID really bites into European economies. So where we come out on Europe Sigma Gabriel, how do you think Europe should

actually engage with China? And depending on investments or a cooperation with China will weaken the relationship Europe has with the new Biden administration. My first of all, this is

not a really big agreement. And Europe and China is negotiating about an investment agreement since more than seven years, and China always asked the Europeans to to negotiate about a real free trade agreement, and the Europeans said no, as long as investments from European countries in China are in such difficult they as they were in the past, we will not be able to negotiate a real free trade agreement. So the precondition was to have a better

and more secure environment for European investments in China. That's that's first of all, the starting point to these negotiations. You're right looking to the US and the bipartisan approach to China UM. The new President Joe Biden will be not happy about this unilateral approach from from Europe to China.

On the on the other hand side, I think there is enough room for for for a common approach between US, Europe, South Korea, Japan, Australia and New Zealand towards China UM although the countries like Australian others had a much more developed free trade agreement that the Europeans did. During the last week, so yes, it may be seen um as a more strategic um autonomous approach from from Europe to China. But but on the on the other hand, I would

say there's another room for maneuvers to join hands. Mr Gabriel Cliff cooptation. There was talking about, you know, a leadership vacuum in Europe once Angelo mercle leaves. Who's the right person to replace mercle or even before that, we we have a big vote on the CDU coming up mid January, who's the right person to actually take on that role. I totally agree with what the Cliff said. There is no person who will be in the same position in Germany and in Europe as well. Germany is

now a period of transition. Uh Merkele will go out of her office, Maybe she will more concentrated on Europe as she did during the very hot time of the pandemic. Maybe she will not so um involved in in the German election campaign and more uh in in in in the European uh politics because there she is interested to

have a long, long scene legacy. On the other handside, France of course want to be the new leader of Europe after miracle, but the country is in a very difficult economic situation and uh and mccron has challenged in the country, so I don't think that he will be so strong to replace Miracle in the leadership of Europe. And by the way, the next elections in France are on the horizon. So that's I think the difficult situation

in Europe. That's why Eurasia is right to put Europe at one of the top risks of the year two thousand twenty one. Cliff Cook, what does the Biden administration actually need from Europe in this bit of what in their fight with China? Is there a role that Europe

can play well President Biden. President like Biden has has rhetorically really distinguished himself from from current President Trump by arguing the need the multilateralize China policy, but to d risk the US in a way with unilateral sanctions and this head to head slug fest that we've been seeing and bring in the EU, Japan, India encouraged China to change these these you know, perceived unfair policies by putting a broader squeeze on them, and that is our fourth

risk actually at US China tensions broaden. Now the Biden people were openly discouraging Europe from this this this investment treaty, this investment agreement, and it is going to be a setback. I think they're going to need to find ways to put it back together again to move forward with this, with with this broad coalition that they have in mind. Uh and and the risk here is that we will see a global bidding war between Ching and Big and

Joe Biden over over allies. Now that may be good for the allies, but it will just increase tension I think between the US and and and trying. What we really need from Europe is whether the United States really needs from Europe is a creative way that Europe can still benefit from China's large and productive economy, but stay in sync with with with the US striving to bring them bring China around. It's gonna be done difficult, Mr Gabriel.

We're looking at the top risks that erais you group sees for two thousand and twenty one, and of course that's an international feel. But I've got to turn to the German election this year. It's a huge and important generational election. And Chris writer of our Berlin operation, tells me very simply that this could be your Conservatives in the Greens together. That is unusual, to say the least. How do you get a coalition developed in the new Germany,

the future Germany? I would say the coalition between Conservatives and the Greens is something which should have happened four years ago. If you look to the German society, this is the coalition the majority of the Germans want to have. Um it was not able because they needed for four years ago the liberals and the rebels had the feeling that they would be the fifth wheel on the wagon, and so that they decided not to join the government. And that only was the reason that we have again

as a coalition between Conservatives and Social Democrats. Normally, four years ago we should have had a conservative green coalition at that time with the Liberals. Now I would say the prospect tip is to have a coalition between Conservatives and the Greens without any party. They will need nobody and in in in the terms of German politics, it will look like the next Grand Coalition, but only the second biggest party will not be the Social Democrats but the Greens. But so Mr Gabriel is a red red

Green alliance actually possible. Who has the most to lose on how the pandemic was handled in Germany. Of course the government and and especially the person who is responsible in the government, Yan Spahn. That's the reason I think that all the ideas that he would come out as the a new candidate for the for the chair of the Conservative Party is will not will not be the case. He's in a in a tough political position. Of course, um many criticism, what what what was done during the

last weeks and months. Uh, He's at the center of the criticis so I would say, uh, maybe he as a person is in the biggest risk to lose, Not Angela Merkel and not I would say not the Conservative Party as a whole. They will go down a bit

when people recognize that Miracle will not be the next chancellor. Man, you must know, everybody in the political arena knows that Miracle will not be the next chance but ordinary citizens are not very much aware that for the first time they will have to choose between different candidates for the chances office. But at the beginning of spring, people more and more were recognized and then the Conservative they will

lose uh some percentage in the opinion polls. But at the end the Conservative Party will stay at the biggest party and Gemen and you will not have a chance to get a coalition but without them, So I'm I don't think that that that is any opportunity for a Green red red coalition with the Greens and the Chances Office. Thank you so much for the insights, Mar Gabriel. They're

a former German for Affairs Minister. On Cliff Kupchin of Eurasia with his top risks on good morning everyone, your Raisor Group, the top risks of two thousand twenty one. I've got fifteen ways to go here with Francis Lacroix on those top risks. Right now we can look at the markets up the ascent of the markets for the halves. It's a beautiful chart in Eurasia Group on American income

disparity and income inequality. Ian Bremer with us right now, Eurasia Group President, and and I want to fold in here something you were so pressing on, and that is China and of course a stronger Reran Membi is a single chart here about you know, crouching dollar in the hidden wheak no that we've seen in the dollar right now, Dr Bremer, part of this is also the politics of China is noted by the two months absence of Jack Ma within capitalism and within his business affairs. What is

the symbolism of Jack Ma, unreported to the China US dialogue. Yeah, it's quite something. I mean, Jack Ma basically has done a better job of antagonizing powerful actors than probably any other individual in the world. And you know, that's a pretty dangerous thing to do. It's not illegal, but it's dangerous. I mean you can ask navalni Uh, the opposition leader that was poisoned in Russia about that. Um, it's quite something.

He's you know, mys incredibly wealthy, he's prescient, he's a hero for the average Chinese, and that makes him a threat and unacceptable to Jun Paying and the leaders of China. And also the fact that the Chinese government has decided and you look at their coming five your plan, this dual circulation idea where they focus more on domestic consumption but also on securing ing Chinese supply chain for critical

strategic sectors. And that because they see that the Americans on five G on Huawei, that they've been hitting the Chinese pretty hard, and they know that financial technology, fintech where you know and financial that jack Ma has been dominating that is critical strategically to the success of the Chinese economy. The Chinese government that means they want control.

So the fact that jack Ma has said these things at the same time that this is that this fight with the Americans coming down the pike has really created big problems global finances, global finance. Certainly the purview of Bloomberg Dr Bremer, what is the responsibility of Western banks and particularly America can too big to fail banks within the US Chinese relationship, what should be their action plan? For example, on Hong Kong. I mean, the banks that

are in Hong Kong aren't going anywhere, uh. They they they understand if your HSBC, if your standard chartered, you understand that Hong Kong as a critical node for doing business in mainland China is much more valuable to you and your global business than standing up for Hong Kong as a Western uh place where your expats can feel comfortable that there's rule of law. So they're dealing with the fact that Hong Kong no longer has a separate

political system. There is no longer any democratic opposition in the leg CO in Hong Kong, there is no longer any capacity UM to speak uh your mind in a free and open media. In Hong Kong. It is no longer a Western environment in any way, shape or form. The one country that's done something, it's not the banks. The fact that the UK. Everyone's talked about how many mistakes they've made, but they are actually giving a lot

of passports out UM to Hong Kong. Nationals that you know are are basically getting done over by China, by the Chinese government not willing to support one system, one state, two systems. At number two for your top risks, you have long COVID. Are we underestimating how quickly our economies can bounce back once we have the vaccines? UM? I don't think we're underestimating that in the developed world. I think that the United States rebound will be fast and

very robust. It's just that it's not going to affect as many Americans as I think we would like. UM. In other words, in the United States. In Europe, there's gonna be much more division of are you in the knowledge economy are you not? Are you able to socially distance are you not? Are your jobs coming back? Have you in evicted from your from your home. How can

you handle the closure of schools for a year? These things are going to have major knock on consequences for inequality and political and social instability across the United States and Europe. Where for the developing world, for emerging markets, And we talked with Dan You're going a little bit about this in the last segment. Um they're not getting vaccines as quickly as the United States and Europe is. They're not bouncing back as quickly, and their budgets are

under a lot more strain. So you have divisions inside the wealthy economies, and then you have the growing gap between rich and poor countries in the world, both of which play out as long covid in Ian. Thank you so much, I and Bremer there of Eurasia group with the top risks of your age. Thanks for listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast. Subscribe and listen to interviews on

Apple Podcasts, SoundCloud, or whichever podcast platform you prefer. I'm on Twitter at Tom Keane Before the podcast, you can always catch us worldwide. I'm Bloomberg Radio