Surveillance: Divided America With Haass

and that would be The World A brief introduction. I really can't say enough about it being the required brief read to get you up to speed on the inter dynamics of the world economy. Ambassador has thank you so much for joining us this morning. What do you worry about after a fourth of July. What's the thing within the entire sphere of your work with the Council on Foreign Relations? Where's your reading, where's your research where you're trying to figure something out? Tom, I could give you

two answers. I could give you a very long list of international things that that worries me. You mentioned Afghanistan, there's always China. People aren't talking about North Korea hasn't gone away. There's wrong. But but but the thing that worries me most is still us. What still worries me most is how divided this country is, how our democracy is under assault from within. And that's what worries me.

If we can't come together as a country, there's no way we will be able to act effectively on the world stage. You drove forward this discussion, it seems a lifetime ago. A world in disarray. So let's look at after this fourth of July and America in disarray, what do our institutions need to do to get us back on course in a better direction. Well, our institutions, some of them were arm pretty well when you think about the courts have performed admirable league. The media for the

most part, has fulfilled its its role. The real problem, I think is is two things. One is Washington, UH. We're still unable, for the most part, to come together to deal with some of the challenges facing this UH country, even beyond infrastructure, things like immigration reform, dealing with budget issues and so forth. And then at the state level,

the disparity in state levels of vaccination. As a real statement, shall we say about the federal system and the unevenness of how the United States is dealing with what is still the biggest challenge the country faces. Why can't we

get more of a bipartisan push behind infrastructure. I mean, I know we have the seven billion dollar deal right now, but in an age of you know, trillion dollar stimulus and a country um full of patriotic politicians, why don't we get a bipartisan deal to give us an edge on our competition. Well, we may have a bipartisan deal. I think central to it it will be a narrow

definition of what constitutes infrastructure. If interesting, there's there's no bipartisan support for shall we call it a broad definition of quote unquote human infrastructure? And then I think there's still questions and whatever scale legislation has passed is how you pay for it? And you're obviously going to have

problems when it comes to specific tax increases. Is there ever a possibility that we get someone or a group, a big enough group, that wants to clean out the loopholes, clean out the deductions, and bring revenue higher with the with the tax base. Where it is, ever is a long time, But I don't see it. One of the rules of democracy. It's not what majorities care about, what what what drives a democracy? Are intense minorities. That's the reason.

For example. But you might have the country favoring background checks, but you can't get certain things on gun control because of the intensity of minority. And by and large you have very intense minorities in favor of quote unquote loopholes, and I think it makes it very hard even though a majority of the country might be open to the

sort of thing you're talking about, Dr. House. I mean, we talk about the disarray here in the U S. And of course a lot of foreign nations look at that disarray and they see opportunity where continue to be barraged by cyber attacks, presumably either at the direction or at lease with the sort of implicit uh I guess backing of foreign governments. Here you have the resurgence here of China across the world in areas where the US

used to be the dominant force here. How much does the White House and the policymakers here in the US need to be concerned here about the influence or the lack of influence we may now have in some parts of the world. I think you have two areas. One is with actual or would be is The other is with allies. I think they've been more focused on trying to rebuild US relations with our friends to reduce some

of the uncertainty some of the concerns there. But with the two countries you mentioned, Uh, the administration has been focused much more on China than on any other foreign policy issue. Uh. They haven't quite put together a comprehensive or coherent policy with Russia. We're going to have a test. Uh. You had the meeting in Geneva. The President put down a marker about cyber Russia continues to allow cyber operations

against US that emanate from its its territory. So the real question is, are we going to act on the norm that, like in the case of terrorism, governments are held accountable for terrorist actions that come from their territory. Are we going to act on the norm that governments are also going to be held accountable from cyber actions that emanate from their territory. We're gonna find out. Do

you have confidence that they'll be a diplomatic solution to this? Uh? No? Uh. I may be a diplomat by training, I don't have a lot Like you're not gonna get some Geneva convention on how to regulate cyberspace. The real question is whether you can influence, say, the cost benefit assessment of a Latin air boots and that's the real issue. Ambassador has a totally unfair question. But let's go there. It's unfair. Tuesday, Is there a Biden doctrine his secretary of state Blincoln

is a president. If they delineated a distinction here that you see that you can call a Biden doctrine. No, I don't see a doctrine because the doctrine has a degree of a commonality and universality to it. On what I'm seeing, it's on what I'm seeing are certain impulses, a real one I mentioned already, which is an emphasis on rebuilding relations with allies, to a surprising emphasis on the promotion of democracy. This the idea of dividing the

world between democracies and authoritarian systems. Obviously uh, fairly robe uh rhetorical and other set of responses towards towards China. Uh. There's been a re entry into multilateral organizations. But again, these are all tendencies. I don't see anything that both explains what's going on and and predicts what will go on.

What is so helpful here? To the gentleman of the Council and foreign relations with US is there can always be a headline that comes out that deserves perspective from Richard hass Here's the headline, Ambassador China, US officials have phone call on Korean peninsula issue. You lead with this in our conversation this morning. Have we've been tested yet on Biden in North Korea? Or does that await it awaits hasn't happened, And there's been no what you call

station identification from North Korea. Historically, we've gotten from time to time, there's been some intriguing reports about real problems with COVID inside North Korea. So one has the sense from AFAR that they've got their their handsful. But in the meantime, North Korea's nuclear capabilities and missile capabilities is

steadily built up over the last decades. And I think the real question is does the Biden administration try to start some type of what you might call an arms control conversation saying, look, we want to get rid of all your nuclear weapons and missiles. We know that's not

gonna happen anytime soon. Let's see if we can't slice this in a way or trunch this in a way where you get we get a bit of progress and what we want, and in exchange, you get a bit of progress and what you want, which is sanctions relief. We haven't seen that yet, Tom, but I think that's possible, Ambassador. I want to ask about Berlin. I'm here, and of course the elections are coming up in September. Does does do any of the possible outcomes change the relationship between

the West and Vladimir Putin? Because until now we've been really unable to strike back at Russia, or at least if we do strike back, we're still sending billions of euros to nords Dream too, pretty soon straight to Moscow and straight to Putin's coffers. I think nords Dream was going so far that it's hard for me to imagine

anyone walking it uh completely back now. I think the United States is going to have differences with pretty much whatever leadership emerges ultimately in Germany over both China and Russia. And in both cases, the German desire to have an economically led diplomacy or foreign policy will probably outpace US. And I think that's going to be an inevitable area

of some friction. Ironically enough, it might be less between the US and the Greens because they're the Biden administration might find more of an overlap stemming from both environmental issues and human rights issues. Ambassador has Thank you so much, Richard Hass the force of the Council on Foreign Relations their president. I can't say enough about the required read the world A brief introduction for all of us. Really just a lovely primer, if you will, on the state

of our international relations. We got the right guest at this moment. Christopher Grossanti of m Ai Capital, is a great student of the equity markets, looking for value within growthiness. Now, Chris, do you own any of these Chinese companies? We don't, Tom. We think there's a lot of opportunity here. That's that's just much simpler. And if I, if I are a

wee Bow shareholder, I would be afraid. I hate to use this analogy, but I think Hong Kong was frankly taken private several months ago, and it's a it's an issue of control. I think it's not data. It's about controlling the most important, uh political and corporate entities in the country. I think you and I earn the same page on this Your job is to talk about it. My job is to ask the questions I will. We spoke to Richard Hassa, the Counsul and Foreign Relations in

the last hour about an American disarray. Is this a Beijing, Chris Grosanti and capitalistic or financial disarray? No? In fact time, I think it's a Beijing that's exercising its strength, and it's UH perhaps taking advantage of an American and disarray, but it's also exercising its strength in its own playground. So um I would I would suspect we'll see more of that over the in the second half. Let's talk, Yeah, Chris, I am curious here about what the effect this could

potentially have on American companies. There's been a lot of reports about some of the issues Tesla is having with regards to its relationship with Chinese authorities. Obviously, Apple and the iPhone basically wouldn't exist without its relationship with China. Here, is there a point where US investors European investors need to start being worried about the ties at those that those UH countries and those companies in those countries have with China. Yes, I'm only half joking when I say, yes,

there's a point, and it was last year. I really think what this exhibits is a flexing of muscle, much more overtly than we've seen in the past. But but clearly I don't even think the Chinese have been trying to hide the ball. They want control over just about every financial transaction and and corporate move in the country. So I think it's a it's a tough place to do business. As the major tech companies have been finding out,

it is a tough place to do business. It's also a relatively lucrative place to do business, all based on the size of the population and of course the growing wealth there. For a company like Apple or any sort of big tech company that wants to have a presence there. How comfortable are you, Chris, as an investor and some of those US names and being exposed to that Chinese market, Well, not terribly comfortable. I'd say. What we do try to

do is pick those that can survive. A Facebook is a perfect example without it, even though as you mentioned, it's such a terrific market that you know, the rest of the world still dwarfs China by itself. So a Facebook a Google have been doing pretty well without towing the line and and basically having been mostly excluded from the marketplace, So we like that. Yeah, a number of those companies actually um threatening to pull out of business in Hong Kong if they have to tow the line.

There is that a concern for you when you look at the international companies that you're invested in, how they do their business in China, how they manage that balancing act. Of course, it has to be concerned. And and I'm a great admired Richard Hassas, and I think the black swan that we may be seeing over the next few years is a real kind of hot confrontation with China,

and that very much worries me. So again I would uh, it's it's on the negative side of a balance those companies that have China has a large piece of the pie for revenues and profits, but more and more, that's got to be all of the big companies you're invested in. If I think of the big banks, if I think of the big cyclicals, the car makers, you know, the equipment makers, um, if I think of the big tech companies, they all have to do business in China. It's their biggest,

fastest growing market. Well, you know, I wouldn't go quite that far. Actually, I think Facebook is frankly excluded from China. Google is mostly excluded from China, and they're doing, you know, pretty darn well. So I'm not saying they can. Obviously they'd be able to grow a lot faster, but but they're doing okay as it is now. But having said that, we can't keep on going like this with you know, an divided world of people who can it be blue can't?

So so there's a resolution coming. I'm just not sure it's a happy resolution. Chris, We're not having a normal Christopher Grossante interview, which is a good and beautiful thing. Thrilled to have you on with this breaking news out of China. But to bring it back to something you've been expert on and profited on, and that is Apple computer. I believe a Apple has manufacturing facilities in China. I believe be Apple has a lot of revenue coming from China.

Is Apple shares or your confidence in Apple shares affected by what China does with Chinese stocks? How can they not be tombet? But I would say even greater. We're not super positive on Apple as opposed to other alternatives and technology space, simply because at the end of the day,

most of its profits still come from iPhones. So look, I love Apple, I loved him cook, It's just an expensive stock at over thirty times earnings when I can get a faster growing non hardware stock like Facebook selling in the low twenties times earnings based on next concernings and and so I just think there's other better ways to play tech growth than Apple at this current time. We'll leave it there, Christmas Santi, thank you so much

on China, particularly this morning with m Ai Capital. Benjamin Laidler joins us with each o their global market strategists. Smartest guy in the block right now, Ben Laidlor reaffirm a double digit two thousand, twenty one. Yeah, definitely. I think we continue to underestimate the growth recovery. I mean, we're going to go into second water ownings next week. Consensus sixty year over year, that will be the peak year over year. But I still think we're gonna beat that.

And and I think the next turning story is next year. Expectations for next year just look far too low, twelve percent when you've got seven percent nominal GDP growth. So I think there's still upside to this sort of growth story. You know, pms are still you know, at sixty very very high levels. So I think the growth story has you know, has further to go. And and that's your insurance policy to the biggest risk which is out there,

which is evaluations are still very high. They're gonna come down probably is the FED sort of gradually tightens here. But but I think that that sort of growth story is more than going to offset the decline evaluation. So yes, I think there's you know, you've you've you've had a remarkable first half. You're gonna make less money than that in the second half. But there's definitely a positive return on the story here, and I think people should stay invested.

So Ben, when we talk about the growth obviously the economic growth here, a lot of people are starting now to sort of look at the idea that the pace of growth, earnings growth, i should say, and the pace of revenue growth for a lot of the companies, particularly here in the US, are gonna be enough to overcome any sort of concerns about the FED, inflation, etcetera, etcetera. Here are there certain pockets though of the market, certain industries that you think are gonna be a little bit

more resilient than others. So you know, if you're in the bullish sort of growth camp that I am, you're looking for, you know, who gives me the most lea rage and the most exposure to this growth story, and that's that's that's the cyclicals, it's value, it's financials, it's everything that's pulled back in the last sort of muthil so, so I really think you've been given us another opportunity here to step up and buy those sort of pro growth,

pro growth names. So you know, the U S earnings next week overall be probably up sort of the second quarter, but these cyclicals are gonna be up, you know, over you look internationally, you know, Europe, Canada, I mean a lot of these are the marks its which were are much more depressed. They're coming off much lower basis. You know, those overall indices are going to see a hundred percent earnings growth rate. So um, you know, I'm bullish on

the sort of reopening story. You know, the world is vaccinated, so I think the reopening story is only just sort of beginning, and that's pushing growth with it, and I think the places to get exposure to that are these sort of cyclicals and and international markets. You know, our Javier Blast laid out an argument for structural supply constraints in oil pushing the price higher. Of course, we've also

seen the Opeque saga do that as well. But do you see other areas where we have real structural shifts in terms of inflation. I noticed you've got the German election and the Copy Summit on your docket of things to watch. Yeah, so I think what's going on in the oil states and just sort of more broadly, the sort of green transition, this move to sort of renewables

is absolutely fascinating. You know, I think all the ingredients are there for you know, for a hundred dollar oil, You've got this heavily backwardad future's curve, which is not incentivizing anybody to draw from more oil. You've got you know, you've got drigg recounts in the US which are rebounded maybe half as much as you would have expected with sort of prices, you know, at these levels. So you know, I think there's a real supply um constraints sort of

coming through, and that's going to drive. You know, that potentially drives oil prices up even further. And and I actually say the same goes for the broader commodity space. I mean, we're focusing a lot on the sort of demand rebound right now, but you know, commodity has been out of favor for a decade. That means that no one's been investing in the commodity space for a decade. So I think you have real supply constraints, but it's

just worth saying. You know, particularly oil, you know, the higher prices go, those are the sort of seeds of it's sort of understruction, if you like. I mean ultimately that will incentivized supply to come back to the market. That's going to incentivize but even in centirice even more, the sort of move to renewables, so you know, enjoy it while they last, but you know ultimately the market is going to adjust. Then you have been on a magical re year tear. There's just no other way to

describe it. You've got other people participating in the ball market, but nobody's nailed at like you are we over emphasizing the so called rotation from technology too cyclical? Is that like emphasized too much versus just being in the market. Yeah, I think so. I mean, I think cyclicals lead here because you know, I think growth, the growth story has sort of sort of further to go. But I think, I mean, you need to be invested. I think, you know,

the tech story is just a different story. It's slightly longer, terms, a bit more structural. Evaluations are obviously sort of somewhat higher. But these are you know, the Fortress balance sheets, you know, very strong growth. I mean, big Tech last quarter grew earnings. I mean, it's just mind blowing for companies that size coming off the year they'd already had. And I think it just speaks to sort of somebody some of the

earnings power. So you know, we can have a debate about you know what, am I prepared to pay for these things? But I don't really have a problem with that, with that sort of earnings power, These margine, these bind sheets, you know, more dividends, more shot by backs. It's a different story, less sort of juice copy, we're saying right now,

but it's it's still a very attractive story. Ben Laylor, thank you so much, greatly appreciate you getting us started here at this morning with Eutro Global Markets can't say enough about the sharpness of ters of his morning note. Tom Persella joined some RBC Capital Markets today, Tom, I did it shart of the real Atlanta wage tracker. Inflation

adjusted wages are not there. Do you just presume that somehow we get inflation adjusted wage growth or is that going to be something we cannot attain in the coming quarters and years? Well, I think that Well, first of all, good morning and hope hope every had to go to holiday. Um, you know, I think it's something like that. It's going to take more time than it otherwise would in the context of we have a lot of inflation right now. Um that the fit keeps to like to keep telling

us is transitory. Um. So I think in in the context of these inflationary pressures, I think it will take time for that idea to develop. But I think what we have to keep in mind is, you know, as we look at wage pressures, um, they're they're they're they're very present. Um, you know, they are starting to build. I think it will take time for them to uh

push into more of a positive territory. When when you just for inflation, but um, you know, no one can deny that that that we're moving in the right direction. I mean, Tom, you know how it is everyone wants everything so fast. Um, you know this is an idea that takes time. I mean the the z W over where Matt Miller is in Berlin, those expectations came in a little soggy. Is the negative real wage enough to derail or I should say, get us to a two percent g DP sooner than we think? Yeah, So I

think what we have to keep in mind. So there's so I love this question. So there's a couple of well with it. I think that there's a couple of of of ways of tackling. So I think when I think about the recovery, I think I think it's been sort of a step function. UM. The first step in that function is you know the sort of this mountain

of saving that that that we're sitting on UM. And I think that's going to be you know, a critical ingredient to you know, let us see this this ten percent or near ten percent um UH growth rate over over the coming year. I think what's then going to happen is that at some point that's going to hand off to wage pressures which we know are mounting now. And and so the obviously the step function there is you are going to see some slowing in economic activity.

I mean, you know, it's funny, I think again people want it so simple. Yes, growth is gonna slow, but you're gonna slow from you know, roughly eight percent growth in the coming year to you know roughly four or five percent growth next year, which is still you know, meaningfully above um potential growth. So that step function then um uh, going from going from wages excuse me, going from saving then two wages. We think from wages that

the next step function is an interesting one. We think that that could then hand off to the banking system, right. I mean, I think if you look at the loans deposits ratio in the United States right now, it's collapsed, and it's collapsed for all the reasons that that you would you know, sort of think, or the reasons you

would think it would collapse over the course of a pandemic. Um. And so what's interesting is at some point that's not going to remain collapsed, right, at some point there's going to be a uh, you know, the banks will then step in, right, people will start knocking on the doors of banks once they depleted their savings, you know, once you know, wage pressures start to stabilize and say, hey,

you know, I'd like to make that loan um. And so I think that there's a few steps in the function that could actually really sort of help us achieve UM. I think really strong growth for again, you know, north of potential growth for the next few years. But what if we do get to that stage or when we do get to that stage where folks come back knocket on the door, not only of course the individuals, but

of course with regards to commercial loans as well. If that happens with rates currently where they are here, what does that mean for the banks here? Yeah? So I mean, look, I'm not going to get into the sort of the banking sector. I mean that's you know, are are a great banking of folks to to sort of deal with.

But what I would say is, look, even for me, someone who's been talking about sort of more inflationary pressure than is appreciated, right, stickier inflationary pressure certainly than is appreciated, I still don't think that yields go that high. I mean it's something like I'm looking for ten ye yields to sort of you know, rocket higher from here. Um you know, I think we'll be sort of lucky to be holding a two handle on on on tends over the coming year. I think would be lucky for for

for that to happen. I mean, I just think there's too many factors at play. So I think I tell you something about doesn't that tell you something tom about how the market sees economic growth further out? No, I don't. I think that I don't think it's I don't think it's quite that way. I think I think that there are a couple of very important ideas that are sort of weighing on the market. Which again, look, let's be

clear the market. We are all the market, right, I mean we're we're all the people that are making these forecasts. And I think that you know, whoever the quote unquote market is, I don't think they know any more than any of the economists that or or or in the other analysts that are building views, um on on on

the economic backdrop. So what I would say is, instead of some mysterious hey, the market knows something more about the backdrop, you know, two or three years out, what I would say is this, I think there are a couple of key things that are weighing on the market or not weighing on the market, that are that are that are stopping yields from really rising materially. Here here's

to them. So the first is, I think, you know, we have to keep in mind that we obviously have you know, countries and central banks that are still engaged in this this negative rate experiment. UM. You know, that is obviously something that I think needs to be entertainment. We still buns that are you know, negative yielding negative

right now. If you SX adjust our ten year yield yield, what you would actually see is that it's very enticing to UM, the Japanese investors in particular, and to European investors in particular. So I think that that's a factor point one that's weighing on tenure yields. I think the other fact that that's weighing on tenure yield UM is I think you have to keep in mind, where's the fight going with funds right Like if you look at their long run estimate of funds right now, it's only

two and a half percent. Think back to the last hiking cycle, the last hiking cycle when the FED got funds to two and a half percent, what was their long run estimate of funds and then it was three percent. So over the course of the last you know, call it five or six years, long runestment of funds has shifted from three percent down to where it is today,

which is to say, two and a half percent. So if the FED finished fifty basis points less relative to their long renestment during the last hiking cycle, I think that they're probably gonna wand up and again, not that that equation works always, I'm just simply saying, I think, but that is then nothing but chopped their long run estimate of funds. I think that they're gonna have a really hard time lifting rates materially north of two percent.

And I think that that is yet another factor that that sort of you know, is acting as a sealing on tends. And the debate here, folks, is on the idea can they do in a linear fashion or is a jump condition at some point and we'll have to see how that works out. Mr PERSELLI, thank you so much, Tom Perselli with RBC Capital Markets. Douglas cast is the Sabers Partners. Yes, his acclaimed morning note as well. It's about more the shorter term, but also he has a

courage to go along. We'll talk about to go along in a minute. Doug, you are terse and decidedly cautious on the market. The phrase you use as group stink, and it's an institutional Wall Street position for good and better times. Are you worried about a correction? Or are you worried about a bear market? Or are you worried about the worse than that? I'm worried that no one else is worried about substantial walkdown in stock prices. I see a number of I'm glad you didn't start with

the New York Yankees, by the way I did. I was advised my people talked to your people, and shockingly, they've made a total of eighty errors this year. That's four more errors than the number of hot dogs that Joey Chestnut concerned in the eating contest anage. But I'm not am I have no intention of calling my next puppy Fenway. Okay, but we got no no, we gotta stay on this right now. This is why did I start? Who did the Yankees trade to rebuild? Aaron Boone Okay,

that's easy one. That's a manager that would work. But do you really think it's a manager solution? I do think so, yes, Okay, that's yeah, that's good. I got guys. According to the bookmakers I checked, it actually just made a bet there are a fourteen percent chance to make the postseason, in less than one half of one percent to win the World Series. That's good. Okay. Let's you're talking to market about the market. The market ramp uh, Tom and poil has been a start. The NAS back

is now up seven straight weeks. It's strong this morning. Um. But my old pal and legendary technical line this Bott Farrow once warned in his Ten Lessons of Investing that excesses in one direction will lead to an opposite excess in the other direction. There's another one of his rules I think that might be relevant. Um. Was it was Bod's belief that the public and today that means the Reddit community and the robin Hood crowds by the most at the top and the least at the bottom. Yeah.

We've certainly seen them, uh, you know, big time in the last twelve months here, eighteen months. So Doug is the catalyst for a pullback However, you want to define a pullback in your mind, what is that catalyst is simply that's that's the that's the sixty or four thousand dollar question. The biggest market player is the Federal Reserve UH and the market players the Federal Reserve in the central banks around the world. They've been providing um equity

heroin for the players since the COVID low. All you have to do, Paul is draw a chart that plots the SMP index to the Fed's balance. The two lines are right on top of each other. But the thing about drug dealers is that that they never want the customers to get clean. We've had several bubbles in the last three decades. Each bubble is growing larger and larger, larger than the one before, So one might ask um the FED slashes rates lower and lower, rather than clearing

the imbalances, which get bigger and bigger. With a drug like heroin, it takes more and more to induce the high. The problem is that it's taking more and more money and debt to have a marginal incremental impact on production domestic growth UM. I think in endorsing this sort of policy, we sow the seeds for problems as debt is at least historically been a governor to growth. Um, we're finally seeing the adverse impact of unprecedented monetary largest in the

form of rapidly rising inflation. It's being dismissed by the same people who dismissed the dot com boone in the two thousand and the slicing and dicing and derivatives that took down the global economy in two thousand seven and eight. The outcome is that the FED is suppressing volatility. It's

inflated asset prices, real estate art, it's promoted speculation. It's taken, as you mentioned several segments ago, the real tenure yield um to deep negative levels, serving two generally underpriced risk. There appears to me to be a lot more uncertainty than many investors and traders see. I saw an amazing statistic um that five eight billion has flown into global

equity funds during the first half. If we annualize that and make it a billion, a trillion, fifty million, that would result in more inflows in twenty in twenty one years combined. And I think that the twelve trillion of negative yielding debt has definitely helped the talk of the weekend. Bank of America with that research plot I thought you mentioned when you mentioned five and a gazillion dollars, I thought that was Mookie Bett's contract with the Dodgers continue exactly.

But we are seeing we are seeing, you know, as it relates to the market share to term, we're seeing divergences. During the last seven weeks. The percentage of stocks over there forty two simple moving average is barely changed and as substantially lower than in January. And we have these these yolo traders not happy or satisfied making money in stocks. They have to move out ever further on the risk curve.

And according to Goldman Sachs, listen to this stat three of the top fifteen call auction volume days on record going back to and that's a total of seven thousand, two hundred observations have happened since this year's Memorial Day. Well, it's a new market, and Gary Gensler is going to solve that. For studcast, I gotta go long term here.

I want you to reaffirm you know you're doing the short term thing, and I get all that that's your class, but you have had the courage to say some of these technological juggernauts are five and I don't want to put words in your mouth, but they're literally decade long holes. Do you stand by that this morning? Yeah, I think that I've long stated and you know that Amazon has been my favorite. It's up another eighty two dollars this morning.

UM that several members X Netflix of fang UM that would be Facebook, Amazon and Google have deepening modes of paraphrase the term used by Warren and Charlie UM, and that the existential threat of anti trust really is being overstated. And I've said, in the case of Amazon, and it's happened in the last two quarters, that their earnings growth UM will substantially exceed group stink or consensus expectation, and that has occurred. Are they value stocks or are they

growth stocks? Well, UM, it depends when you buy them. Buy them, um. You know, if you brought them in December two eighteen, they were when we did it was they were clearly UM value stocks. The same could be said for much. I don't think they're you know, I know that a lot of people are making the case that their value stocks because their pees are less than their expected growth rates. So I think there's somewhere between value and growth. Doug, we gotta shift back, and you know,

I'm so upset. I'm watching more National in Ball this year than I've ever watched before because it's like real baseball. Doug casts on the shift, folks. For those of you that don't understand this, there's four players in the infield and they move around a little bit, but all of a sudden, we're you know, twenty years ago, it was like once a game twice again. They did it every single Plague Dog cast. They're doing some fancy pants stuff and I'm sorry, the hitters are starting to figure this out.

Are you for a rule that would contain the shift in baseball? No, I don't think. I don't you know you asked me last time, would regard to the distance of the mount to home plate? No? I think you keep you keep, you keep the rules as they are. They work well for over a century. Okay, Doug Cass, thank you so much. An update. Yeah, absolutely, Well that's what they're doing. I mean in the National League where they know what to do with the bat because they're

not all trying to hit homers. Play after the Brewers are like a clinic, play after play, after they beat they beat the shift as well. Have we done enough baseball talk? This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Thanks for listening. Join us live weekdays from seven to ten am Eastern on Bloomberg Radio and on Bloomberg Television each day from six to nine am for insight from the best and

he can comics, finance, investment, and international relations. And subscribe to the Surveillance podcast on Apple podcast, SoundCloud, Bloomberg dot com, and of course on the terminal. I'm Tom Keene, and this is Bloomberg