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an important conversation. Why the duration Ron Dermer is Israeli Minister of Strategic Affairs, but far more he was Ambassador of Israel to the United States for seven years. His extended period in Washington, his work at Wharton, among others, is noted and to have Ambassador Deurhmer with us, John, with his experience across all of a decade is important.
Minister, thank you for being with us this morning, and I think first and foremost we have to extend on deepest sympathies to you and the people of Israel. Our first thoughts going to the hostages, the scores of hostages
that were taken over the weekend. And as you know, there are some reports at the moment in the media that we'd love to get an on the record response from you on this from Reuter's a little bit earlier this morning that Katari mediators of how talks with Hamas officials to try to negotiate the release of Israeli women and children hold in Gaza. Minister, are their active talks exlct my guitar to release hostages?
Well, what I guess you just read to me is that Kataris were talking to Hamas about it. Israel has not been negotiating with anybody.
Has Katar spoken to you about the release of hostages and their role they might play as a mediator?
As I said, what the qataris speaking to Hamas and talking about different things. Look, people are outraged by what happened. I'm sure your outrage. I appreciate the condolences. I know their heartfelt, and they're deeply appreciated. We haven't seen something like this, even in the Middle East, which is you know, is has a lot of brutality and savagery in it.
We haven't seen savagery like this since Isis when you have killers, scores of hundreds, really of terrorists who who invaded Israel on Saturday morning on trucks with AK forty sevens and just mowed down people who were at a dance festival, went into people's homes, killed whole families, kidnapped children, women, elderly. This thing is sick and it's savage, and you really have a battle between the forces of civilization on the one side and the forces of barbarism, and civilization is
going to have to win. And that's exactly what we're
going to do in the days ahead. And as you heard from Secretary of Blincoln, it may take some time, but we're going to exact such a high price that not only will Hamas never consider doing this again, I think none of Israel's enemies are going to ever think about doing something like this again, you know, and the feeling of euphoria on the other side israelis those of a certain age remember nineteen seventy three when a surprise attack was launched against us on.
Two different fronts.
There was euphoria then for a few days, but then Israel turned the tide and the end of the war looked very different than the beginning of the war.
And this is exactly what's going to happen.
Now, Minister Basin One, you've just told us. Can we just assume then that a full ground invasion is inevitable.
We're going to do whatever we have to do to send a lesson that they're going to understand for many, many decades, not just Hamas, not just the terror organizations in Gaza, but all the terror organizations and all the enemies of Israel, and Iran is the biggest enemy of all, and they're pulling the strings behind the scenes, giving money, giving weapons, having meetings to try to coordinate attacks in Israel, and as I speak to you, Iran is trying to
push other people into the theater of war. We're going to have to send a message to everybody because Israel, you know, as you know, we're a tiny country or about the size of New Jersey, America is about forty times the population that we have, which goes to show you how heinous the attack was yesterday. Because when you have maybe one thousand people in Israel who were killed on a single day, and your population is forty times the size, it's around forty thousand Americans. That's more than
ten nine to eleven. So you can imagine the sense of disgust that we have. We have to send a message to all of Israel's enemies because we're a strong country, but we're tiny, and we can go from strength to vulnerability. I think people are going to see the strength of Israel, the might of Israel, and I hope that the wal to Wall support that we appreciate that we had day from the President Biden, the support on both sides of
the island Washington. I hope in the days ahead that that support continues when Israel has to do what it has to do in order to exact such a heavy price from this terror organization that not only do they not threadn us, that they don't threaten any civilized country around the world. Believe me, this will inspire terrorists the world over. Just like you had the Isis caliphate. It
started to do inspiring people all around the globe. The world came together and understood they have to crush that caliphate. We have a force like that right in our backyard, not thousands of miles away, but right in our backyard, a few meters over the borders, and we're gonna have to crush both their capability and also their spirit.
They will rule the day two days ago. We're going to remember that day.
Israel will always remember that day, but all the terror organizations around us are going to remember this period for a very long time. And the critical miscalculation the Kamas may thinking that it was going to be business as usual in Israel. Believe me, it is not. The people are outrage and they have awoken not a sleeping giant, but a sleeping maccabee, and they're going to see it in the days and weeks ahead.
Minister, you mentioned Iran. Have you seen personally or are you aware of any evidence that Iran was directly responsible and help coordinate these attacks over the weekend.
Well, let me tell you what we do know for sure, But we know for sure that Iran provides ninety the last numbers. I saw ninety three percent of the military budget of Hamas is provided for by Iran. They are trying and have worked to put weapons not in justin to Gaza, but also in Judas, Samaria, the West Bank. They also support hasbalas you know, on our northern border.
We know that as a fact.
We know that Iran has coordinated meetings with all of its terrorist proxies in the region, Hamas and Gaza and another terror organization Palesiti in Islamic Jihad in Gaza and Hezbala, almost to kind of joint operations, I don't want to say joint operation center, but coordinated meetings. It was one question that I'm sure you're interested in. Did they know about this beforehand? Initially we didn't think that they did.
Now there is some evidence that they might have known about it, or we are working to verify that evidence. That's why maybe there's some conflicting reports in the press that we don't exactly know. But now that we're looking back and we're looking at all of our intel and seeing exactly what the situation is, it's still not clear to us.
But they might have done it. But I have to tell you they.
Are working right now to bring more and more terror groups into this fight. So everyone has to know it, and it's important not just I think, to stand unequivocally with Israel against Kamas, to call for freeing the hostages, but also to stand unequivocally against Iran.
You know there's going to be.
The UN Security Council can tomorrow, Europe, France, Britain, Germany, they can work to snap bang the UN sanctions, the Security Council sanctions against Iran. You have to enforce oil sanctions against Iran. Sporting a lot of oil, They're getting
a lot of money, tens of billions of dollars. It's time that the world unites against Iran because what you're seeing today is a tentacle of an Iranian octopus, and we have to not only cut off the tentacle, we have to deal with the regime that is sending them. And I hope that the world will stand with Israel, as I said in the days and weeks ahead, to reverse this and turn it into a victory against terrorism.
And Barbers, Minister, we have some news to work through on our side, and I'd love to continue this conversation with you. At the same time, according to the CBS White House reporter or at least nine Americans were killed in Israel. As I'm sure you know, this goes beyond the people of Israel. The whole world is looking at this moment. Just on Iran, you mentioned that you may have some evidence that implicates Iran directly for the operations
that took place over the weekend. Could you share with us the nature of that evidence?
Unfortunately I can't.
If I could, I would, but I can't, and we're going to have to look through it now. Our working assumption is that they may have. Our working assumption a couple of days ago was that they hadn't known about it directly. Now it is unclear, and we'll have to
wait to verify it. And you know, when we make an official statement, we'll make an official statement, but we have to work some work through that right now, because I want to make sure that when I say it, we know with one hundred percent certainty.
Now that is our working assumption.
We did hear this from the Wall Street Journal that Iranian security officials helped plan Hamas's attacks and gave a green light for the assault at a meeting at Beirroute last Monday. According to Cedia members of Hamas and Hesbala. Are you aware of a meeting that took place in the last week between Iran and leadership of Hamas and Hespala.
They have meetings all the time, it's not secret. You can see pictures of their meeting with Iran leadership, the leadership of their Iranian Revolutionary Guard leadership, their CUDS Force leadership, meeting with these other senior officials. So they've had many, many, many meetings over the last few months, and they worked very hard.
What is Iran trying to do?
Those of you, those are your viewers who know the map of the Middle East, know that Iran supports the Shield militias any rock. They are trying to establish a beachhead, a terrorists beachhead against Israel and Syria. They support Hezballah in Lebanon, which is the northern part of Israel. They support both Palistin and Islami Chihad and Hamas and Gaza.
They support the Hutis in Yemen.
And what they're trying to do is put a noose around Israel's neck with all of those terror groups there, and we have to make sure that we break out of that noose. And deliver such a mighty blow that they're not going to forget it for generations.
Ambassador, I want to take your years of experience here, and it's outside your remit, but I'm sure it's something everyone wants to know. I can't get my head around how Israel invades the Gaza Strip. Do you anticipate substantial bombing and air attack or are we ready for some definitive original building to building urban warfare in Gaza.
Because I'm a member of the Security Cabinet, I'm not going to discuss that. Let's just say we have a clear goal to cripple the capabilities of Kamas and also their will to wage war against us.
So you're going to have to interpret that the way you want it. I have to leave it at that.
But it's people who doubt Israel's capabilities are making a huge mistake. We will do what we have to do in order to achieve that goal, and we are going to have to achieve this goal obviously first and foremost for Israel, but it's for all of our Arab partners in the region.
Believe me.
Put aside all of those statements that are made by foreign ministries in the region, and some of you may have conversations with officials from the Middle East and they may tell you a very different story about Israel than
they may be saying publicly. There have been times in the past where Israel has fought with these terror organizations, and the ones who are rooting for us usually first and foremost are these Arab states were threatened right by these jihadi forces, whether it's a Shia Jiadi force or a Shia group like Iran and its proxies, or Sunni
group like Kamas. They don't want these forces of barbarism to win because they threaten them, Ambassador, and this is very just one thing, if I may, this is also very important for the pursuit of peace eventually, because no one is going to make peace with the week. We have to be very strong, and it's strength that is actually going to improve our chances to reach an historic piece agreement with Saudi Arabia, which I have no doubt is one of the reasons why this action was taken at this.
Time for our audience, Ambassador Dermer, can you triangulate the focus obviously on Gaza, but also now on the West Bank in a fractious northern border with Lebanon. How will Israel affect a three front war.
Well, we have to ensure that our force structure is done in a certain way that we can deal with any threats that would materialize. And you say, quite rightly, we have issues on the northern border. We had sirens there just about an hour ago, we had an attack there yesterday. There are different attempts for attacks, so we have to be clear on a northern border that we have all the capabilities we need to defend ourselves. As you know, the United States brought a carrier group into
the eastern Mediterranean. I think that sends a very strong message to DeTar our enemies and it makes it clear that America backs Israel. And again we're deeply appreciative of a Bide administration for doing that. I think it makes the chances of war less likely, not more likely. And of course, as you said, in the West Bank, in Judaan and Samaria, we've had terror actions that have happened there, and we have an iro on that.
We have to have our eye on.
A sort of a three hundred and sixty radius in order to deal with all these different challenges. But I'll tell you the chances of having a multi front row grow when people see Israel as being vulnerable. So the stronger and faster we act, the more it will send a message of strength and purpose, and that message is critical to actually ultimately de escalate the situation and prevent
these things from happening for many, many decades. This is an attack, I want to say it again, the lights of which has never happened in this state of Israel. We may have lost a thousand people in a single day, ambassament has never happened in the state of Israel.
Ambassador, there's a big question around Saudi Arabia, and that talks about normalizing relations. I know you've been involved with those, and it seems like those are at least iced in the near term. Saudi Arabia put out a statement saying that it repeated its warnings of the dangers of the explosion of the situation as a result of the continued occupation and deprivation of the Palestinian people of their legitimate rights.
How much do you see this as really precluding additional discussions with Saudi Arabia and making this kind of normalization talk not viable in the near term.
Well, a lot of people were surprised by the Abraham Accords, you know a few years ago when no one thought that that could possibly happen, but Israel proved itself. It's strength, frankly, it's security strength, it's economic vitality. I think that's what
made those accords ultimately possible. I think the critical question of whether we're going to be able to achieve this historic piece with Saudi Arabia that that pulls pushs the whole Arab is rarely conflicted to a completely different place and can lead to a broader reconciliation between Muslims and Jews as well. The critical factor will be how Israel emerges from this fight, or do we emerge as a victor.
Because people make peace with winners, people make peace with a strong, they do not make peace with the weak.
And that will be the critical factor.
I'm telling you, take all the statements, all the diplomatic statements that have been made, put them aside. It's not relevant. I think there are many Arab partners in this region that want a different future, that are thinking about what's going to happen in twenty thirty forty years down the road when oil doesn't have the.
Value to their countries that it has today.
They need a partner in Israel that can help strengthen their own national security, that could help their own national prosperity. You saw a few weeks ago with the G twenty when several countries, the United States, European countries, India launched this vision of an economic.
Corridor that would go.
From India through the Arabian Peninsula into Israel and towards Europe. I mean, that's a game changer, an economic game changer for the region. And I think the Saudis have great plans for building their country. And believe me, there are a lot of people in a lot of places in the Middle East, no matter what they say publicly or rooting for Israel to win, and I think they're gonna get exactly what they want.
Minister, Just to wrap things up, because I know you have to go one final question, winning, how do you define victory in a moment like this one?
Like I said, you have to cripple their capability and you have to crush their will to do such an action for decades and decades to come, not just Hamas and palisining Islamichi Hat, but also other terror organizations in the region. We rely as a small country on our deterrence, but deterrence doesn't last forever. You have to exercise power and force to always make clear to your enemies that you're prepared to fight.
Not only do you have the capability, but you have the will to fight.
And our enemies Camas obviously miscalculated here because if they think that this action that they just took and murdering a thousand Israelis and just shooting our civilians and taking scores of people hostage and having over maybe three thousand people who are wounded, that this is going to be business as usual, they just have no idea who the people of Israel are, and I think they're going to find out in the days ahead.
Minister, We appreciate your time this morning, got a very difficult time for your country, and hopefully we can catch up against soon. Run term of that, the Israeli Minister of Strategic Affairs.
We forget in seventy three that Israeli forces got within X miles of Damascus to the north and they made it to the Suez Canal in over the Suez Canal in seventy That's a bit of history that I think people really are wide on this all comes up to the geopolitics of the region. Expert on this and a good friend of Bloomberg's surveillance is Ellen Wald, Senior Fellow at Atlantic Council. Her book Saudi Inc. Is Definitive on hydrocarbons. Ellen,
thank you so much for joining this morning. Really really a timely to have.
You with us.
How does Israel get its oil? Are they in some way oil independent?
They're not really oil independent. Israel actually does or used to get quite a bit of oil from the kurdis Dan region of Iraq. It was shipped out via the Jehan pipeline from the port of Jehan in Turkey to ports in Israel, to Haifa and to other ports. I don't think Israel's particularly concerned about getting oil or making sure that they have enough oil at this point.
Though.
One interesting point that has just come up is that Israel asked Chevron to shut down the operation of the Tamar gas field platform, which is out in the Mediterranean
in the northern part of Israel. And to me, that says that either they think that there could potentially be some sort of terrorist attack on that platform, which potentially either from Iran or Hisbela, which I would say definitely signals to me a widening of this highly regional conflict and something that actually could be a potential threat to oil markets, to gas markets, especially if you consider that, like you said, the Suez Canal is not all that far.
To take it to Saudi Arabia and your expertise there. Which part of Palestine do Saudi Arabia does the Royal family support, That's a great question.
And they're definitely much more interested in the Palestinian authority run parts the West Bank than they are with Hamas, Hamas and Saudi Raba. They see Hamas as a very destabilizing element. Especially the Saudi monarchy does not like terrorists. Terrorists are just as much a threat to them and to their stability as they are to other areas. So you know, and what's interesting is that they keep pushing
for this region two state solution, regional peace agreement. They have always said that their recognition of Israel depends upon a regional peace deal and two state solution, which is one of the reasons why I think it hasn't really gone very far and haven't seen very much, because that's not something that Israel or that the US is really prepared to push for at this point, the question is will they drop this in favor of getting a defense
pack from Washington as they've indicated. They haven't quite indicated that, but they definitely have indicated that that's a top priority for them, especially on the nuclear front, and so that says to me that maybe they're willing to negotiate a bit on that requirement.
Allan there was also talking into the weekend that is part of this pact. The likelihood is that we would get crew dounput increased into next year. And as you look across the region, now, what would Saudi Arabia stand on that particular point and what could this mean for Iran production and those barrels of oil that find their way on international markets exactly.
And Iran has been selling more oil recently, not necessarily because they're evading sanctions anymore, because sanctions are not as tight as they were, but simply because Iran has been able to increase their production and so they're selling more. With prices up across across the markets, Iran is able to get more money for its oil even if it's still selling it at a discount. And even though it's
got competition from from Russian oil. So if Saudi Arabia puts out another million barrels a day than they are right now, that would definitely threaten Iran's Iran's money making scheme from oil because it would send prices lower. Of course, there are lots of other things that could also send prices lower for i Ran, so that's not the only issue here. I think it's it's compelling that Saudi Arabia sees that million barrels a day as a bargaining chip
with the United States. They're saying, Hey, you're going into an election year that could be tough. We could put a million barrels a day back on the market and lower oil prices for you if you help us out, if you get us this defense pack before you know, election season, before a new a new administration comes in and we have to start all over. So I think that's a very compelling chip that Saudi Arabia has thrown into the game here.
You've talked about Uron selling more oil and it comes at a time or there's talk of the potential for sanctions or additional punitive measures if Euron is deemed to have a more active role in the planning and the execution of this attack. From your vantage point, how realistic is that. What kind of influence could that have not only the price of crude, but just in general to the region and the geopolitics there.
That's a really good point. I think that any kind of tightening of sanctions is not really going.
To have much of an impact.
It's purely, you know, something that is purely just hyperbole and rhetoric, because enforcing sanctions is a multi year long process. Now, if we were hearing talk of, say a blockade against Iranian ships leaving the Persian Gulf, that would be a
totally different story. So if the United States is willing to take its navy and ensure that Iranian ships can't get out of the Persian Gulf to sell their oil, or that ships that have transferred Iranian oil to them and not maybe Iranian ships can't get out, that would be a huge shift away from the current policy, which is just let's try to enforce sanctions. It takes you know, three, four, five years to do that, and that could definitely cause
a major spreading of the geopolitical conflict. I would say if that happens, oil prices would go through the roof.
But Ellen, can you just say on a broader level, then, do you think that any kind of interruption or disruption to oil production has been overstated and particularly in the price of oil this morning, or do you think that there is a broader implication as this goes on that you are watching.
I think that the four dollar increase that we saw overnight was too much. You know, we've had regional conflict between Israel and Goza before and oil prices jump a little and then they come back down because people realize there is no larger impact to oil producers. But in this case we are really, I think, on the verge
of a larger geopolitical regional conflict. There are so many other pieces here that it isn't that the jump and oil prices is basically anticipating that it's anticipating that there could be some kind of disruption, and that that's more like in this case than it has been in the past.
And I diagnosed the sell off as well last week too out of it. If we can finish, do I think it's important Was that sell off in anticipation of potential boost the crude output from Saudi or was it because we saw evidence of our demand limits being tested by this price search.
I think it's the second. It's definitely more of a larger demand issue that is coming to light or that is finally being realized in the market. I do think that the news that Saudi Arabia could increase production starting in twenty twenty four, if this, you know, if they get what they want from Washington is definitely could definitely be a catalyst. But that really didn't come out until Friday, and the sell off had started before that. So I do think it's much more based on the demand issue.
That news was dated pretty quickly. Let's put it that way, and I thank you. In the world of the Atlantic Council, Steak Chevrone joins US now at a multi asset solutions that federated and they stay. A question I think people will be asking the market is whether this represents a durable headwind to invest the sentiment. Do you think it could?
Yeah, I mean it certainly adds to uncertainty.
I mean it's a difficult question to answer, John, I mean, just watching the footage over the weekend, I mean, I know we have a job to do, but I feel like equities are the least important thing considering some of the images we saw over the weekend, I mean, all things being considered, just trying to decipher it. Obviously, it's it's an upward pressure on the commodity complex and oil. It adds to uncertainty in the markets. Yeah, you saw bonds rally a little bit, but not anything major.
I mean, we've seen.
Treasurey yields go up ten basis points in a day. You know, a four basis point decline and international high quality bonds isn't much. I think the point you just made, though, is the appropriate one. You know, what happens next and does this spreads it become a wider regional conflict than that has all kinds of implications.
But at this point, and when we all have to wait and see.
You are wonderful at the cross asset analysis, this bond tobaccle that we're in right now. How does it affect Steve Off? I mean, is he getting his requisitt nine hours sleep a night? How does it affect the world of equities?
So Steve and I are very close. I don't know what he does at night.
What I will say is that you know, there's a lot of it's a hard one to tell. You've got a yield curve this uninverting, and historically when that happens, that's a real imminent sign of recession. But it's never uninverted this way, which is this kind of bearish steepener. It's not like the two year yield is falling an anticipation of cuts.
You've got a ten year that's rising.
And the question is is there a buyer's strike on the treasury or is the market trying to normalize to a new normal of a kind of five to six percent nomenal GDP.
And one of those is much more bullish than the other.
Tell me about value versus Carlton, I mean, I was shocked on the exon Pioneer transaction rumored last week that these are ten and twelve and thirteen multiple companies where we're talking about the chosen seven are twenty five and thirty multiple companies as well. How do you define a federated growth in value?
Well, just using a simple kind of rustle one thousand growth versus value. Coming into this year, we thought inflation would be a little bit more adorable and the Fed would hike more than the market expected.
That was right.
We thought growth might struggle a little under that environment, and that wasn't. We still think that this market broadens out. We think it broadens out to cyclicals pricing out some recession risk at least in the short run. We think the dividend players and their safety are attractive. And so yet we've nibbled on large cap growth on the most recent sell off because we've been so underweight. But we still think that there's an opportunity for the market to broaden out.
There's a question about how much can change in a minute, given some of the concern that we're seeing percolate out of yet another front for geopolitical conflagration. How much would your view change should oil sort of bear the brunt of this if we do see any kind of disruption, We do see oil prices climb above a hundred barrels one hundred dollars a barrel on a sustainable basis.
Yeah, I mean, look with the market and the Fed are trying to pull off here as an inside straight to a softer landing, and so anything that makes that path more difficult is a challenge, whether or not that's higher oil prices, resurgent inflation, rising delinquencies, you know, a ten year yield that becomes unhinged to the upside. Those are all risk factors. And I think what the last year has told us is you want to be humble. You want portfolios that are close to neutral, pointed in
the direction of your fundamental view. And so you know, we think markets are a little bit upside biased here or certainly before the weekend, but you want to stay close to neutral and humble because there's a lot of risk factors out here that are really unprecedented.
City this morning, send the conflict in Israel to come and say, snakflation reshunk to the this is rady economy. Could you say the same thing about a global economy right now? Given what you're saying, galswe.
It's certainly possible.
But again, I think what has to happen there to be a real stagflation aya event is you need to draw in some of the northern countries or you need a tax only I'm not really Iranian refineries or things of that nature. That there's probably not enough of an oil price shock where things are located today, but a spreading of that certainly can.
And again, look on this theme of humility, John, if you.
Would have asked me, you know, what would have happened in the wake of the Ukraine invasion, who would have gotten the market reaction right? And so these we're not experts in these areas, and we stick to the fundamentals as best as we can.
It's one of those mornings where you can learn some think about how the market is responding to this incoming information and events over the weekend. In some ways, it's a shame the cash treasury market is close today. We learning the bonds still provide those risk mitigation characteristics.
I think there's no question about that.
Every time that bonds as a downside protection mechanism have been doubted, you know that they show up. And so look, I mean unless we're looking at some you know, massively secular buyers striking, and I think it's premature to say that. I think when there's trouble in the world, the safest asset is the United States Treasury and I don't think anything's changed about that, and I think we'll probably see that tomorrow.
What are you watching as this sort of progresses over the next hours and days, as we read all of the news and how it's potentially spreading or being contained. What are you looking for to potentially change your outlook one.
Way or another.
Well, again, I think you know, spreading north, whether it's Lebanon or whether there's any kind of direct involvement with the Uranians, would certainly be something to watch.
I think. In addition, you know, if you.
Start to see how to say this, but if you see kind of any terrorist activity in non Middle Eastern countries, you know, that's something that certainly could shake confidence in the world, and you watch closely and then honestly, at least in more than anything, it's just watching in horror at the atrocities that are going on and feeling heartbroken about it.
Just trity Shelkin stay, thank you, sir, Thanks for the inside this morning. Steve Cheffer on that Federal hermes the Israel Hamas conflict entering the third day with over oney one hundred dead. Israeli forces responding with strikes in Gaza after the militant group entered Israel, taking hostages. Over the weekend, the Wall Street Journal reporting Irani and security officials held plan what would be the biggest Israeli security failure in decades.
US Secretary of State Anthony Blincoln maintaining they have not seen evidence to confirm cooperation.
There's a long relationship between Iran and Hamas. In fact, Hamas wouldn't be Hamas without the support that it's gotten over many years from Iran. We haven't yet seen direct evidence that Iran was behind this particular attack or involved, but the support over many years is clear.
Joining us now is Norman Rule, Senior advisor for the Transnational Threats Project at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. Norman spent thirty four years in the Central Intelligence Agents see Norman. Wonderful to catch up with you under tragic circumstances. Obviously, Norman, we have to start with the main question that was on the lips of everybody. What happened and how did this happen? Over the weekend?
Good morning. Israeli security forces, primarily the Shin that have had responsibility for Godza on the occupied territories, and they have over the years demonstrated a very capable architecture of surveilling Palestine activity, and this has allowed them to frustrate multiple Palestine attacks and identify, locate, and when necessary, neutralized
Hamas and other Palestine officials. In this case, it appears that Hamas was able to develop a compartmented planning, execution, and training program within that security bubble that not only evaded Israeli surveillance but enabled this operation to be undertaken without Israel seeing indicators that this existed. To be clear, this is an intelligence failure by Israel. However, they have
a very capable intelligence service and are catching up. And also, to be clear, this is a failure by the international community as well. American other countries do not see the protection of their nationals to Israeli security services, and we also did not see the indicators of these of the.
Bend Norman, wonderful to have you with us and with your years and years with the CIA. This is not Matt Damon in a movie.
This is reality.
How do you take over a geography that is two times the size of Washington, d c. And as two million people crammed into it. How do you link your intelligence knowledge with a military effort to de Hamas Gaza.
It's it's possible, and Israel has done this for some time with Gaza, the West Bank and for Lebanon. However, you raise an extremely important point for Israel to consider grind operations or hostage rescue operations. This is one of the most challenging environments on the planet. It's not just that this is a concentrated civilian areas. This is a
concentrated civilian area with very tall buildings. Now, the United States and Iraq and Britain have some experience in working this in Iraq and Afghanistan, but these were much smaller areas which with much shorter buildings. For Israel, this is an extraordinarily difficult challenge and no one should underplay the casualty account that is likely to happen for Israelis and Palestinians and ground operations are undertaken.
You look at the narrow like that, and you also look at the bigger. In your writings, you talk of a multipolar dynamic, and you take the tensions of the Middle East and the Levant back to eighteen seventy and nineteen thirty, way before nineteen sixty seven as well. What's a multipolar dynamic that Israel faces right now?
Well, it's a good news bad news story. You have a situation where in the good news side there are strategic, long term and continuing drivers by for the Saudis and for the Amorades and others to promote regional integration. That must include Israel because of its geographic location, that hasn't gone away, and that will sustain the ongoing diplomatic process between the United States, Saudi Arabia, and Israel to restore relations.
On the downside, you have an international community that is cracked apart, so pulling together Russia, China, and the European community in a way that actually promotes a peace plan of some consequence will be impossible.
There's also a question about the role of Iran, especially as the Wall Street Journal is reporting that they had an active role in helping to plan this attack. We have not heard from the US government confirming that. They said they are investigating. What are the potential consequences, what is the escalation type of potential. If Iran is deemed to have had an active role in planning these attat.
We should be careful about the report. Iran is unlikely to have played a robust, active role in planning the attack simply because they are not on the ground, They do not have personnel on the ground, they would not be able to provide an intelligence of input to those operations, and their involvement would compromise the compartmentation of the operation. However, Iran has provided drones, training money for over the years.
As Secretary blink and Is correctly stated, Hamas would not be Hamas without Iran, but that it's Iran's modus operandi. In essence, what they do is they enable proxies to conduct operations that parallel Iran's strategic objectives. Those operations play out, Iran is able to say it supported them and enabled them iron achieves and strategic goals, but Iran's direct hand is not seen, and thus Iran escapes international punishment.
The speculation is that one of the strategic aims was to disrupt the Saudi Arabia Israeli agreement that was being worked on and coming to some sort of fruition in the next couple.
Of weeks and days.
How much do you think that that has been iced? How much are people really discussing that aspect of the strategic potential motivation for the timing of this attack.
There's no question that that was likely one of the motivations. But this is a pie that has multiple pieces in it. This operation was clearly developed over many, many months. It would have taken a very long time, if only because of the compartmentation requirements to pull this together, and therefore it had a number of reasons. The Ricey government and its proxies have maintained an assertive foreign policy posture for
a very long time. There was no specific incident that provoked this, but certainly one of the benefits for hardliners in Iran and the proxies is that this will complicate, if not disrupt, the diplomatic process underway.
Norman, we know based on reports they've taken scores of hostages. Does that complicate Israel's response to this hugely?
And we should note that these are international hostages. Reports are unconfirmed, but there may be Chinese, French, tie as well as American hostages as well as among the dead in Israel. So the international this is in many ways a Hamas attack against the international community. These hostages will be dispersed within Gaza. Isolating them and identifying their locations
and developing rescue plans will be very, very difficult. The United States has considerable experience here will no doubt be sending intelligence security personnel to assist the Israelis, who are also very good at this. This will also inject considerable amount of complications and diplomacy. So we've watched the United States, Saudi Arabia and others engage Katar, Turkey which have good relations with Hamas, and a variety of actors to see
how this plays out. It is not inconceivable that you will have outreach to Iran itself to assist on this. That rarely works out. Well, you should recall what happened last when Iran at hostages in Lebanon.
Norman, I'll Kissinger, Merzheimer, Robert D. Aapplin, and frankly you, is this a day where America shifts back to real politics? I mean, forget about shuttle diplomacy and all of that this morning. Is it all about a real politic that we think we have forgotten and moved on from.
Well, the line of the Middle East is unlike Las Vegas. What happens in the Middle East never stays in the Middle East. And the Biden administration will need to develop not only a strategy to address this issue, a strategy to see how this impacts existing programs such as the Iran and Saudi and other initiatives. But likewise they're going to have to staff this out. They're going to have to apply a lot of personnel and policymaker bandwidth well,
which will come at a cost of other issues. This is a seismic issue which is going to transform regional policymaking and international policy making. We're in the early days and the ripples of this attack in terms of policy and domestic politics are still playing out.
I want to ask you this question to wrap things up, Norman, no speaker House, no ambassador to Israel, AJB to Lebanon. Is that a symbolic failure or that have real world consequences.
Well, it's certainly a symbolic problem, but we shouldn't discount the capabilities and roles of our charges in these locations of intelligence personnel of military personnel. Those communication channels remain robust, and these capitals often deal directly with the United States in Washington through their very able ambassadors. So the system of handling this is underway and will be executed crisply. It just would be better and easier if these personnel
were in place. And Israel has received a considerable boost in the number of iron dome interceptors and ammunition it will need, and that has occurred without the House being in order. But we need to fix this. Norman.
Thank you for your insight this morning, and hopefully we can catch up again before the end of the week. Norman Rule there the Center for Strategic and International Studies.
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