If you enjoy the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast, check out our new daily news program, the Bloomberg Daybreak Podcast. It gives you the day's top stories with context in just fifteen minutes. Look for it in your podcast feed by six a m. Eastern every morning. Subscribe on Apple, Spotify and anywhere else you get your podcasts, and stay tuned for a sample of today's edition of Bloomberg Daybreak at the very end of this podcast. This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm
Tom Keene, along with Jonathan Farrow and Lisa Abramowitz. Join us each day for insight from the best and economics, geopolitics, finance and investment. Subscribe to Bloomberg Surveillance on demand on Apple, Spotify and anywhere you get your podcasts, and always on Bloomberg dot Com, the Bloomberg Terminal, and the Bloomberg Business App. It is a joy after pandemic that Abby Joseph Cohen dark in the door of our surveillance schools so a studio,
I should say she is not with Goldman Sachs. It is a whole new world after all for the former Goldman Sachs partner professor at Columbia Business School and joins us after giving out bushels have ceased this term. Wonderful to have you in the studio. Abby once again, it's an abby Joseph Cohen market, and that you have to believe in optimism on the American economic experiment and within all the caution in gloom, equities will rise. Is this
a bull market off the October lows? And is it a better time I had for the stock market?
There are quite a few questions embedded in their tom and let me just say, I'm delighted to darken your door, so thank you for the invitation. I believe that what we're seeing is that investors are thinking differently than many of the talking heads. Many of the people who are required to make daily comments about what's happening. I think overreacted in some way to daily data or monthly data
and forgot to look at things in context. So, for example, Michael did a great job of saying, here's where inflation is now, and let's put that in the context of where it was a year ago. And what we basically see is that that inflation is coming down. It takes pressure off of the FED to continue to raise interest rates. The other thing that we're seeing in the data, not necessarily every week or every month, is that there is
ongoing economic growth in the United States. It has been surprisingly good, but not relative to consensus expectations, but not really a surprise when you think about the strength of the consumer. When the Fed began to raise interest rates more aggressively more than a year ago, the household balance sheet was in the best condition we have ever seen. Credit was in very good shape relative to income levels. And we also know that the employment situation has been
good and has not really shown any deterioration. And in our US economy, that really is the base for economic growth.
I wonder, especially on the heels of the CPI report that came in pretty much status quo, we are seeing some sort of disinflation. We also are still seeing that dynamism, with Wells Fargo CFO coming out this morning and saying that they're seeing an increase in card spending and real kind of strength there. You put these two together, do you now buy into the immaculate disinflation, this idea that you could get a new bull market and disinflation even if growth slows.
I have been consistently in the camp that we would see some slowing in growth, but no recession, and that we could see inflation come down. And part of that is because I've had confidence in the FED that they would be paying careful attention to the data. And so when we think about what they may or may not do tomorrow, I think that they have the option to. I don't know if we're going to call it skip
or pause. Let other people assign something to that. But the thing that I learned as an economist at the FED is we don't know how long it takes for monetary policy changes to actually affect the economy, and I think that they have already done so much. We already have an inverted yield curve. If I were voting, which I'm not, but if I were a voting member of the FOMC, I would vote for wait and watch well.
And that seems to be what the consensus is.
As far as as far as what.
People are expecting.
I am wondering as you advise the boards of public investment firms to try to understand how to position, would you say it's time to lean in, that it's time to actually bet on a broadening of the rally, that it's time to really understand that perhaps we're going to go back to something that's a lower yield reality.
Yeah, I know that we're all focused on the fact that we're now back to where we were. I think the time to have made a really good decision was late last year or early this year, when everyone was so disturbed by what might happen and what I considered to be a low probability scenario. That was really the opportunity. And as I take a look at things now, I say, Okay, equity valuations are not as appealing to me as they were in November December because the pe has risen for
the overall market. And so what I'm advising is balance Number One, we have an opportunity for the first time in ages in fixed income, and I would go with high quality, high quality corporates, treasuries and so on. You can get four or five percent return on a treasury. Not bad. Number Two in the equity market, I would be looking at some of the sectors that haven't performed well.
You know, forty percent of the S and P five hundred roughly is it and communication, And these are the two sectors that have done so much better than the rest. So if you're concerned about relative valuation, there's some great opportunities in some of the more cyclical areas. And if people increasingly believe that there will not be a recession, that's where you start to look for opportunity.
Just real quick here, do you think that the whole AI hype has been overplayed? That it's kind of starting to get a little concerning.
I have been speaking to computer science professors and experts, and as I have an undergraduate degree in computer science, as ancient as that might be, and what they are basically saying is they're kind of nervous about how AI proceeds. There is the sense that if you put good data in, you'll get good results out. And what the scientists are saying is it's not true because the process that are being used are not really being properly regulated. They are
advising pilot projects so we can see what happens. One of the common quickly time, if I may this Congress hasn't yet figured out how to regulate the Internet, and so we may be pretty far behind in terms of whether there should be some controls over AI. And I'm not talking about anything draconian. I'm just talking about guardrails, and our Congress hasn't yet figured out what to do.
I got eight ways to go here, and I got forty seconds. Mister Costin at the shop downtown goes from four thousand to forty five hundred SPX. I don't want you to play the game he used to play at Goldman Sachs. But I do want you to tell me what the second leg of a bull market looks like. The first leg, as you alluded to, is easy money. What happens now in a second leg of a presumed bull market?
Sure, I've been at that forty four to forty five hundred level since last December, so I'm not so in terms of what we have seen. So when I take a look now at David's forecast, which is very thorough, he's talking about an increase to about forty seven hundred, I think that's reasonable when I look at the profit outlook, and also what might happen to Peaes.
Does Lee Boluncer and the rest of Columbia University know your game in the SPX off of Bloomberg terminal at school?
Are you really doing that?
I am not.
You're not placing trades.
I'm doing that at home, but.
You're on the couch of the laptop at home. Had me Joseph Cohen on a day of inflation.
Just check in with Sarah House. She's a senior economist at Wells Fargo. So, Sarah, we've had a couple of minutes here to digest this CPI data.
What did you take away from it?
Yes, So I think overall, when we look at the numbers, I think it's consistent with this inflation picture not getting any worse. In some ways we're seeing it maturely about or if you look at what's happening with the headline number, how that's stacking up against real average hourly earnings. But at the same time, when we look at the core numbers, there's still somewhat troubling. So we saw for a six consecutive month monthly increases of zero point four percent or higher.
So still some work to be done on the part of the Fed.
Well, the Fed's going to meet tomorrow. I know you're briefing Jr. Own Pal of twelve noon here, Sarah, how does this change the dialogue at the Federal Open Market Committee meetings?
So, I don't think it changes the outcome of what was heavily signaled before going into the blackout period that the FED was likely to pause, skip, whatever you want to call it here in June. But I think it still keeps the door open to another hike in July, given that, yes, you have inflation coming down, but when you look at the core numbers that they're still troubling,
troublingly high. So I think this is moderate enough to keep that compromise position going and buy J. Powell a little bit of time and hope that the numbers accelerate more clearly here over the next in intermeding period.
Paul, and I see your read picker summing it up for Bloomberg News, and Bloomberg News reports slowest since March twenty twenty one. Okay, it doesn't get you back to now March of twenty twenty or even nineteen, but you know, I guess it's a move in the right direction exactly.
So, I mean, Sarah, when we look at this, you know, ex Food and energy annualize at five point three percent, I mean again, that's that's higher than where the FED would like it to be. But put that in context with this two percent number that FED continues to throw out there is two percent of a realistic number these days, or would three percent be okay?
So I think in terms of the official target, we're not going to see that change. So we have to step back and think. Okay, first, we're talking CPI numbers this morning, so that's probably more like two and a quarter versus the two percent, which matches a little bit better with with pc So I don't think we'll see
a change in the official target. But I do think if we get down to maybe not three but somewhere closer to two and a half percent, I think that SID can live with that for a time if it means staving off a recession or at least mitigating the damage to the labor market. But I think this where you know where you're still looking at some numbers you know, at least double the fed's target by these consumer price index measures, whether PCE or CPI, that's still uncomfortably high for the FED.
Key question. I don't want to get in trouble with Wells Fargo compliance, but we're going there anyway. Sarah House, good, do you extrap away the core CPI vector in a linear fashion where you get down to the level you just said a year out, two years out, two and a half years out, or can you get some form of convexity where we come down with greater rapidity. Can we pull that off?
So I think we can see the pace of disinflation pick up over the remainder of this year and on into twenty twenty four. So one of the items propping up the core number today was a four point four
percent gain in used vehicles. Don't expect that to last based on what's happening with the latest auction data as well as just what's happening in terms of the financing costs on consumers, what's happening on the inventory, the discounting side, and so between that and housing, I think you can get a much more discernible disinflationary path over the coming months.
But I think in terms of getting it all the way back to that to two and a quarter percent rate that is on par with the fed's target, that's going to be probably a late twenty twenty four, maybe even twenty twenty five period. In terms of sticking that landing, you might hit it and bounce, but this is the landing is going to be about a year per one.
Final question, this is the raving the raging question right now. I mean the form of Vice Chairman Richard Clareda says, forget about two point zero maybe there was a tailor rural reality of for years one point eight even we were subpar two percent for whatever reason you're saying that as a shop Wells Fargo says, two point x percent is just inappropriate and we have to have as a mission to get back to two point zero percent.
I think that's the Fed's going to maintain that as they're in official target, but we think that they will implicitly be comfortable with something, you know, between two two and a half percent here over the next couple of years. That is going to be a multi year process to get inflation back down to where it averages two percent. But we think at the said we'll be able to live with something closer to two and a half percent, even if that official target is not going to change.
When compliance call, Sarah, just you run them over to me and my cell phone, right, I'll be in this surveillance nap, but we'll straighten out that. That was very good, Sarah House. They're very delicate about some of the politics out there on this day of CPI and clearly an important day of inflation data in America and to be observed worldwide. It is good to speak to any Treasury secretary. Janet yellens occupied, So we'll do better with Jack glu
the former US Treasury Secretary joins us this morning. Jack, thank you so much for joining Bloomberg and Bloomberg Surveillance. I'm gonna cut to the chase you were weaned on, Joe Moakley out of Boston and on the Great Tip O'Neill, and Tip O'Neill understood that technology drove things forward. He was a believer in the big system, the big vision. We come out of a pandemic, we have sky high inflation and the dynamics changing. Is this a normal inflation?
Is this a normal dynamic that we should fear or can it lead to a better disinflationary trend, better productivity and better growth.
So good to be with you, Tom, And I think it's fair to say that there's nothing normal about going into a coming out of COVID. It was an extraordinary period that required policies that no one had ever had to think about in our lifetimes before. So I don't think there's any surprise that coming out of it. It's a somewhat bumpy path with somewhat unpredictable duration in terms of where we're headed and how quickly we get there. I think what's clear is that there's been a trend
down in inflation. You know, a lot of the inflation that was supposed to roll off slowly rolled off, But what's left behind is a lingering higher inflation rate. Then we would like. What we don't know is when all of the measures kick in, all of the higher interest rates, all of the effects of bank failures, where will we be. So I think the cautious approach is still the right one. We have room in the economy for some tightening. Unemployment is very low, we still have a strong but we're
headed towards a slower patch. There's no question about that. And the question is will it or won't it become a technical recession. So I think that the data does matter, and I'm not sure today's news will be the last word.
Jack lou the Painfully. My colleague John Parrell mentioned this on London and the rest of the United Kingdom in the last hour. There seems to be a separation in America to Americas that John Edwards talked about and advantage technology front America that really doesn't care about inflation, and then another America flat on its back. How separate are our two Americas now economically?
You know, that's a good question, and I think there's lots of data points to show that it's a growing separation and a real problem. You know, you were talking a few moments ago about savings rates and what are the residual savings from pandemic support and from lower spending when people couldn't go out. It's very different if you're at the top or the bottom of the income spectrum. At the bottom that savings has been gone for a while.
At the top, it isn't going away anytime soon. And I think that has a lot to do with what people can buy and what people can buy those things. So we do have to ask how different parts of the economy fairing.
Although I do wonder how much the fiscal impulse is going to be severely constrained. Do you think that people appreciate how much the recent debt ceiling negotiations will constrain further fiscal spending or do you think that it basically was a band aid over something and basically didn't change the narrative in any way.
So, Lisa, I think there will be lower spending on the appropriated side. That's going to have an impact on things that are very important in terms of providing services to the American people. So I don't want to say it won't have any fiscal impact. But the whole debate was over a small slice of the budget. It wasn't over revenues at all. It wasn't over the large entitled
programs at all. So I don't think we should confuse the size of that deal, which was on the order of seventy five billion dollars a year for a couple of years of restrained spending, with what a true package of fiscal consolidation would look like. I think the question going forward is will there be continued stability in terms of the federal government not creating anxiety that affects both
how individuals and businesses see the economic outlook. Part of the agreement was a kind of technical legislative provision to put pressure on Congress to pass all of the appropriation bills separately, which they haven't done since I was at a OMB and the Clinton years. Now, if that happens everything will go smoothly. If it doesn't happen, you face the prospect of government shutdown, of cuts in defense spending.
The noise coming out of Washington in the last few days suggests to me that we're not necessarily done with drama coming from our capital.
This is my shockface. I do think that people are expecting a bit more in terms of drama on this front. At the same time, when you talk about instilling some confidence in c suites of some predictability, I do wonder your response to future bank failures at a time when a lot of people are saying, basically, for all intents and purpose, there is a backstop at least depositors basically promised by the Treasury Department, and interference promised by the Fed.
Well, look, I think they regulators and Treasury have made clear that they will do what they have to to prevent systemic crisis from occurring. They haven't been terribly clear whether that means in every single case. You know, there are continue to be normal workouts of troubled banks, so not everything is in the case of the regulators will step in. Look, I don't think we're done seeing the impact of higher interest rates on pressure on financial institutions.
You add to that the pressure that comes from commercial real estate values being below where they were just a short period ago, So there's going to be some stress in the system. I think looking ahead, the thing that ought to happen is reflected in what policymakers have said, which is that there has to be more careful oversight of mid size financial institutions, particularly growing mid size financial institutions, so that we don't have as many surprises in the future.
I don't know exactly what shape that will take, but I do think that's a very important discussion. And rolling back that oversight a few years ago I thought was a mistake at the time, and I was glad to hear that that thinking has changed back to we have to keep an eye on things.
Jack. One final comment, We've got to say happy anniversary. It's almost ten years to the day that you unveiled a new signature. Can you believe that was a decade ago? Jack? Can you believe that was ten years ago?
It is very hard to believe that it's ten years ago, isn't it amazing? T?
And that's sure, is it's original, but it's changed.
Go on, Jack, and I still get them when I go to the money machine that's.
Old, the old ones Jack, or the new version with the new signature, you.
Get a pretty good I only had one. There was only one signature.
Oh so they never got the new that. They never got the new signature on that.
I'd like a redo of this is possible.
Can I just say that you've given my children hope, because they often will say when we're trying to develop a signature, they will look at yours and say, look, we can be creative with it.
So literally, the only.
Thing I say is, don't blame my grade school teachers.
They try Jack Lou, thank you sir for being a good sport as well the former US Treasury secretary Jack.
Right now, and this has been just a joy for us over the recent weeks. Wendy Schiller joins as director of Tubman Center, Brown University. Wendy were squeezed for time today. Let's just cut to the chase. It is truly an original moment. This is not in your classic textbook. How will you place a new chapter into your textbook?
Well, in some ways I think that this is a development for the democracy. And if you're a Trump's borer, you say Oh, this is terrible and it's a political witchhunt. But if you think about it, why should presidents be shielded from behavior if it's criminal, whether it's federally criminal or bringing a state law when they're president.
I mean, they should be held accountable. This is an evolution of where we are.
Latin America, we know, you know, we don't want to be like them, but even Europe now, Nicole Sturgeon was held just the other day, you know, former leader of Scotland, for things she might have done, her husband might have done for their party.
You know, democracies have to have a rule of law.
And if you let the most powerful operator in the democracy break the law because they're insulated from prosecution when they're president, they're probably going to do that.
And that's not something I think we want in the twenty fourth century.
So I'm not as perturbed or disturbed by this.
I don't think it's a political witch hunt.
I am concerned that when Democrats get out of office.
The same thing won't happen.
But there's a there is a rule of law, and if you break the law, you need to be held accountable.
There's a prosecution, and then there's the response publicly where people who are for the former president are still for him and do believe that this is some sort of undermining of the institutions. What's your takeaway from that when you teach your political history classes at Brown, Well.
I mean political loyalty has turned into very fierce support and sometimes violence in the entire history of the country.
That is not new.
We have to see what happens today. How many will come out and go to a rally and you know, not that hot weather we think maybe in Miami today, But is that the same as you know, committing violence or trying to up end the system entirely just to save this one person. It's a larger problem for the Republican Party going down the line. They really in the end of the day, you know, McCarthy's answer was quite weak. You know, there's a bathroom lock. There's a lock on
the bathroom door. That's you know, this is the espionage jack. These are military secrets. Is this man capable of being entrusted with national security? That becomes a larger issue as this trial proceeds for the Republican Party and those other people running for office in twenty twenty four, in the Republican Party.
Putting aside Kevin McCarthy's response, you can come to whatever your conclusion that you'd like to come to. That there is an issue of at what point Republican nominees or potential nominees start to push back against what former President Trump is facing up against or starts to put a
little bit more credence in the judicial system. Do you expect that to be the case or do you think that they're willant to you to be support and import around backing the former president and really kind of sticking with that line, Well, we.
Said, that's that's the you know, very in question, and we have to ask themselves for the next couple of months.
The question is in the polling, they've got to win the primary.
I mean, this is the most devoted Republican voters, but a lot of independence in some states with open registration.
Vote in the Republican primary. You know, they may be voted Republican before Trump. They've left Trump in majority.
Numbers in the last couple of years, but you know, will.
They vote Republican primaries? And if independent voters do do that.
Right, they vote in Republican primaries, they're not going to want this guy, and how do you balance that?
And then, of course in the general election, we know they're not going to vote for this guy.
So this is the big question for those other people running. You don't want to alienate your core base of Trump supporters.
On the other hand, other people vote those.
Republican primaries too, and they're just going to get sick of this, especially if there's a Georgian indictment or January sixth indictment. You know, this guy just becomes too much of a liability and then you risk losing turnout in twenty twenty four among that base or Republicans.
When do I have thirty seconds? What kind of legal representation does the former president have today?
I think they were scrambling as of yesterday, so I'm not even quite sure. But then you have to ask you that question two is at what point does he lose.
The capability of getting.
The very best minds of the country and try to defend him. And let's not forget the judge. This judge sort of got in trouble for the way that she handled this case earlier in its proceedings.
What does she do now and does she.
Continue on that path or does she sort of more conform with regular judicial standards in the federal judiciary.
Wendy Shella of Brown University. Wendy, We'll be tell Conceding, not down.
Subscribe to the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast on Apple, Spotify, and anywhere else you get your podcasts. Listen live every weekday starting at seven am Eastern im Bloomberg dot Com, the iHeartRadio app, tune In, and the Bloomberg Business app. You can watch us live on Bloomberg Television and always. I'm the Bloomberg Terminal. Thanks for listening. I'm Tom Keen, and this is Bloomberg. Thanks for listening to the Bloomberg Saveillans podcast.
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Stay tuned for today's edition of Bloomberg Daybreak. It's your daily news podcast, delivering today's top stories to your podcast feed by six am Eastern. It's all the news you need in just fifteen minutes. The Bloomberg Daybreak podcast. It starts right now Boom.
From the Bloomberg Interactive Broker Studios. This is Bloomberg Daybreak for Tuesday, June thirteenth. Coming up today, Arranment Day in Miami.
Former President Trump prepares to face charges in the classified Documents.
Pro Wall Street braces for the latest inflation report as the Fed meets on interest rates.
Apple and Oracle hit all time highs.
And New York City offices hit a post pandemic milestone.
Ukraine says it has liberated several villages from the Russians in recent days. Plus, New York City is looking for a new police commissioner. I'm michae Lebarr.
More Ahead, John Stan Sharon sports.
The Denver Nuggets have won their first NBA championship. The Subway Series begins tonight at City Fields.
That's all straight Ahead on Bloomberg day Break, the Business news You need to starn your day in just one fifteen minute podcast each morning on Apples, Spotify, the Bloomberg Business app, and everywhere you get your podcasts.
Good morning, I'm Nathan Hager and I'm Amy Morris. Here are the stories we're following today.
It could be a tense day in Miami.
Up to fifty thousand people are expected to turn out at the city's federal courthouse. That is where former President Donald Trump will enter a pleete of federal charges over his handling of classified documents. House Speaker Kevin McCarthy says the former president is being treated unfairly when compared to the current president.
When you're looking now at a current president that has documents sitting behind, is his automobile in a garage that date all the way back to a senator that raises a lot. If you're charging one and not charging the other, you raid one house, but you don't raid the other.
But Trump's former acting chief of staff mc mulvaney says, this case is different. How often have we seen you throughout our political history, throughout business history.
It's really not the crime, right, it's the cover up that gets people in trouble.
Watergate was not about the break in.
It was about the cover up of the break in.
Former acting White House Chief of Staff mc mulveney spoke with Joe Matthew on Bloomberg's Sound on Catch the program weekdays at one pm Eastern on Bloomberg Radio or listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts. Former President Trump's arraignment is set for three this afternoon in Miami.
And we'll have much more on Donald Trump's day in court coming up shortly. But first we turn to the markets, both the S and P five hundred and Nasdaq one hundred are trading at their highest level since April of twenty twenty two. There's optimism the Fed will pause rate hikes. The Central Bank kicks off its two day meeting today. Also today we get the May reading on US inflation. Let's get more on that from Bloomberg's Michael McKee.
Economists say consumer price inflation slowed in May, led lower by falling energy and automobile prices. This inflation in rent may finally show up, holding down the core rate. Meanwhile, base effects high inflation a year ago mean a big drop in overall inflation this year. At least that's the forecast.
If analysts are wrong, however, watch out higher than anticipated inflation will change expectations for the FED policy decision due Wednesday, with officials divided over whether to raise rates or make no change. An inflation surprise would lead to big market moves. Michael McKee, Bloomberg Daybreak.
Okay, Mike, thank you.
And rates are also in focus in Asia, Bloomberg News has learned China is considering a broad package of stimulus measures, including interest rate cuts, to boost the world's second largest economy. Sources say that stimulus would include at least a dozen measures designed to support areas like real estate and domestic demand.
And speaking of real estate, New York City has achieved a major post pandemic milestone. We get those details from Bloomberg's Jeff Bellinger.
Office occupancy in the city top fifty percent for the first time since workplaces emptied out at the start of the pandemic. The security company Castle Systems provided the data. Castle calculates the number of workers entering buildings by tracking security card swipes. More workers returned to offices despite the city being engulfed in smoked from wildfires burning in Canada. Jeff Bellinger, Bloomberg Daybreak.
All right, Jeff, thank you. Back to markets now. We're watching a couple of stocks trading at all time highs this morning. Apples at its highest level in more than a year, the latest sign of big tech reclaiming leadership inequities. The latest rally comes after Apple unveiled its Vision Pro mixed reality headset.
And shares of Oracle also hitting records. They are up more than four percent and early trading after the company reported quarterly revenue that topped estimates. Bloomberg's Charlie Pellett has those details.
Its signals the software maker's cloud business is benefiting from heightened demand for artificial intelligence workloads. Sales increase seventeen percent to thirteen point eight billion dollars in the fiscal fourth quarter. Analysts,
on average estimated thirteen point seven billion. According to data compiled by Bloomberg, Oracle has focused on expanding its cloud infrastructure business to more forcefully compete with Amazon, Microsoft and Alphabet's Google, all of which have seen recent slowdowns.
In New York.
Charlie Pellett, Bloomberg Daybreak, Charlie Thanks. Shares of Intel are also on the rise. They are up more than one percent. Bloomberg News has learned Intel is among companies British chip designer ARM has been talking with about anchoring its IPO this year. ARM is looking to raise as much as ten billion dollars in its New York listing.
On the flip side, Microsoft is under fire from US regulators. They're suing the tech giant to stop it from completing its acquisition of Activision Blizzard. The Federal Trade Commission wants a cord order to block the deal from going through until the agency's in house court can review the sixty nine billion dollar deal.
Over in Europeamy, the boss at Barkley, says a reshuffle and its investment bank has top deal makers leaving cs Vencotta. Christians replaced the heads of his investment arm earlier this year as part of a shift to focus on Europe. He tells Bloomberg's David Weston the move is about looking ahead to the next decade of banking.
It's not a shift so much as an expansion.
It is to try to give more attention to Europe.
Relatively speaking, the US remains critically important to US.
Darkly, CEO of Kotta Christian is head of the world's largest non US investment bank.
And one note on the airline industry. This morning, United is offering its pilots the biggest deal ever for a mainland US carrier. The airline is making a contract offer to pilots with incremental value in excess of eight billion dollars over four years.
Time now to take a look at some of the other stories making news in New York and around the world. For that, we'rejoined by Bloomberg's Michael bar Good Morning, Michael.
Good Morning. Nathan, New York City's police commisioner has abruptly resigned Ketchin Seole, the first woman ever to lead the New York City Police Department, announced their resignation by surprise and a letter addressed to the rank and file and it, Sewell wrote she has witnessed their compassion, heroics and selflessness on a daily basis, calling them hard working public servants.
Former NYPD Chief of Detectives Robert Boyce credit Seule for working to reduce the city's crime rate on her watch.
If you look at the numbers, the violence thumbers, they've come down dramatically, you know, twenty four percent reduction in shootings, fourteen percent reduction in home side thinks that she's done the way she's carried herself with a lot of duty families, a big loss that we're going to talk about for quite some time.
Mayor Eric Adams issued a statement thanking her for her work. Officials in Lockport, New York, say one person died and multiple people are in the hospital after a boat cap size during a tour of an underground cavern system built to carry water from the Erie Canal. Police and fire crews were called to the Lockport Cave tours after authority say twenty nine people were aboard the boat when it flipped, sending them into the water up to six feet deep. Fire Chief Luca Quagliano.
The boat can safely handle up to forty people. There was twenty nine on it at the time. Somehow, at the end of the cave or the destination at three hundred feet section there the boat became unbalanced and capsized.
Chief Quagliano says Eleven people were sent to local hospitals with minor injuries. Secretary of State Anthony Blincoln says he hopes the Ukrainian offensive now underway will force Russian President Vladimir Putin into talks to end his invasion. Ukraine says it has liberated several villages from the Russians in recent days. However, a regional governor says at least three people have been killed and twenty five wounded after missiles hit civilian buildings
and an overnight attack in President Zelenski's hometown. The governor of Illinois signed into law a bill that would prevent book bands in the state, the first legislation of its kind. Pat say Jack, who has hosted the hit game show Wheel of Fortune since nineteen eighty one, says he will retire next year. Say Jack, who is seventy six, says it has been a wonderful ride. Global News twenty four hours a day, powered by more than twenty seven hundred
journalists nanalysts in over one hundred and twenty countries. Michael Barr, this is Bloomberg.
Nathan Man sold a lot of vowels. Thank you, Michael.
Time for the Bloomberg Sports Update, brought to you by Tri State Out.
Are you good morning? John stash Out?
Good morning, Nathan. The NBA season is over with a first time champion.
Ain't it's over.
Last?
The world light is over fift to forty seven years and Denver Luggets can finally call themselves NBA champion.
Back call on ABC. Denver meating Miami in Game five, ninety four to eighty.
That's a score you used to see back in the nineteen nineties. It was that kind of a game, rugged defense. Both teams struggled to score. They combined to make only fourteen at a sixty three three pointers. They heat led for most of the night. Denver made a run fourth quarter,
then Jimmy Butler got hot put Miami back ahead. But Butler would commit a costly turnover in the final minute Nikola Jokich Finals MVP led everyone in the playoffs in scoring, rebounding, and assists, first to ever do that the second June in a row, or they are celebrating in Denver. The Avalanche last year won the Stanley Cup and the Cup will be in the house tonight in Las Vegas. Golden Knights up three one on Florida. Also tonight, start of
a two game Subway series at Cityfield. Luis Sevarino for the Yankees, who just had a two to four homestand Max Scherzer for the Mets, who lost eight of their last nine. The Mets have signed to former Yankee Luke Voit just released by Milwaukee Hill report the Triple A. Sakwan Barkley not reporting of the Giants mini camp this week. All eyes on July seventeenth, that's the deadline for the
Giants to sign Barkley long term. If they don't, he'll either play for the ten million dollar franchise tag War sit out the season. The US Open tees off Thursday in LA and two former champions will play together, Brooks Koepka, who left the PGA Tour for Live and Rory McElroy, who was outspoken your is criticism johns Stashawer Bloomberg Sports.
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This is Bloomberg Daybreak. Good morning. I'm Nathan Hager.
The city of Miami is bracing for potentially big crowds and the possibility of protest as former President Donald Trump gets ready to enter a plea two dozens of counts later today at the city's federal courthouse. For more, we are joined by Bloomberg News Senior editor Bill Ferries, who, as it happens, used to lead Bloomberg's bureau in Miami. It's good to speak with you again, Bill. Is the city you used to know ready for what's coming this afternoon?
Thanks Nathan. Listen to mayor and the police chief for Miami Dade and the City of Miami have all said that they're prepared. They don't. They admit they don't really know what to expect. They estimated crowds could be anywhere from a few thousand to fifty thousand, depending on how many of the former president's supporters and his opponents all convene at that courthouse where the former president is expected to appear at three pm today.
Let's talk about a little bit what we do know is going to happen. Walk us through what is expected when the president faces those charges this afternoon.
Well, the first thing we'll be looking for really is who's with him. As you know and your listeners know, a couple of his key lawyers who have been guiding him through this process quit in the last week or so. So I think the first thing we'll be looking for when the president makes his appearances, who is alongside him, who is representing him? He needs to have, he needs to have lawyers who are authorized at the Florida Bar.
So that's been I think a focus of the President and his allies over the last few days as he prepares for this. When he gets into the courtroom, he's going to have to presumably plead innocent. He said he's innocent to all thirty seven counts across seven charges, all relating to his storage of classified alleged storage of classified material at the mar A Lago resort.
So and.
After that, after that ends, well will get a better sense I think of the timeline of this court case, we do expect it to bleed well into next year's presidential primaries and possibly the election. And we're not expecting right now the president to necessarily address his supporters outside the courthouse. There's been talk that he will go back to his club in New Jersey and perhaps give a speech there. But everything, you know, we've never seen anything
like this and anything as possible. So we'll be watching closely to see how the president moves forward.
Apart from entering a plea today, Bill, are we expecting that we're going to get any glimpses either from the special counsel, the federal prosecutors for amounting this case, or from Trump's defense attorneys, whoever they may be, as to how this case could go forward in terms of the arguments that they might pursue.
Yeah, I think, you know, in the case of former President Trump, there's always two sides to this. He obviously has always made a lot of his arguments against these kinds of things public. It's not clear that that will carry as much weight in the courtroom, but we will, I think from he and his lawyers get a sense of, you know, whether they're going to contest some of these some of the means, some of the evidence that the federal government is saying that they built up against him.
We may get a sense of their strategy in terms of trying to drag the timeline, timeline of this of this case out, whether by calling for some of the classified material to be made public in the courtroom or other procedures. I mean, the former president has a history of trying to delay and drag out court proceedings, so I would expect we'll start to get a sense of that perhaps in the courtroom or when his lawyers leave and they issue some statements about how they feel the day has gone.
Of course, we've seen the political impact already. Bill in our last minute here, we've heard Republicans defend the former president saying there's a double standard. At the same time, we're hearing from pretty powerful Republicans questioning the former president's electability now that he's facing these charges. How significant is that that we're hearing from the likes of John Cornyn questioning the former president.
Yeah.
I think there are some Republicans who were in Trump's corner as presidents, who are who want to move on, who think that maybe even if this is rallying the traditional base, the primary voters who backed Trump, that it's really going to do the Republican Party damage in the general election next year. So that's I think they're looking ahead to that with a big question mark. And you've seen a couple of Donald Trump's opponents in the primaries now,
Nikki Haley and Tim Scott. I believe both kind of come out with some cautious words, cautious criticism of what they what they read in that indictment against the former president. So the tide has turned a little, but obviously he still has that big base of support to back to back him up.
This is Bloomberg Daybreak Today, your morning brief on the story's making news from Walston to Washington and beyond.
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