Surveillance: Covid Communication Efforts

the summer. It was long ago and far away where a radiologist from Mount Sinai came into my studios through on the ground some X rays from Wuhan and said, Tom, this is serious. That is followed with medical people worldwide

helping Bloomberg Surveillance to understand this horrific pandemic. Nowa it is time for education with leadership in the first founding partner at Verizon, Hans Westberg joins us, the chairman, the chief executive officer, and we're thrilled that the woman that's making this up, Lisa Sherman of the Acclaim ad Council joins us today. Hans. Let me go to you first. Simply, you got on board before Apple before Benny off its

salesforce and said, this matters. Why is Verizon that communicates, Why is Verizon helping Lisa Sherman and messaging what we need to do on COVID And this says, well, well, no one. As you mentioned in the beginning, this is unheard of. Pandemic has hit so hard on this count and the rest of the world. And of course one thing that is important, of course the communication around it and and raising the awareness and the science around the

vaccine coming up right now. And we thought that when vaccine is coming out, we have a very big responsibility as a huge employer and it's a big company to be part of that communication about their awareness and also about the science around it. This I sup in our society that as a government of the information and that has been heating most heatd by these pandemics. So for us, it was a national to be a founding bout Runce

Lisa Sherman. My mother sold war bonds. This is a few wars ago, and that was started by the AD Council in the nineteen forties. I grew up with only you can prevent forest fires, and now it's only you can prevent COVID. The AD Council has been definitive and messaging America. How are you going to message education to get the courage to vaccinate in America? Well, first of all, Tom,

thanks for having me. Uh. We're clearly dealing with the biggest public health crisis in our lifetime, and we fundamentally knew at the AD Council that we had to launched the largest public the public education effort in our history.

Um So we've recently launched a massive, coordinated communications campaign that brings in every every sector in the economy, and our focus is really on trying to get people to have confidence in the COVID nineteen vaccines, which you know, the fact that we have them in such short order is is nothing short of of heroic. But at the same time, you know, what we're seeing is high levels

of vaccine hesitancy. Just the data probably pretty current, about fifty cent of people right now have either begun the process of vaccination, have it at least one of the shots, or intend to get vaccinated. The other end of the spectrum, you've got about fifteen percent of the people who say they're never going to get it. So our focus is really to to talk to the thirty five percent of

Americans who frankly are taking a weight and see attitude. Lisa, can you tell us about the nature of that thirty five percent? In other words, is there a unifying characteristic of individuals in the United States who don't want to get the vaccine? You know, we've done a lot of work and trying to understand hesitancy, and it's pretty complicated and it's very nuanced. You know, it ranges from everything. People have a lot of questions and they just want

answers to their questions. Some of it could be you know, how did this happen so quickly? Did people trade off um efficacy for speed? Others have longstanding concerns because of inequities, and especially in the black and Hispanic communities where there have been long standing inequities in the healthcare community. So we see higher levels of hesitancy among Black and Hispanic communities.

We also have begun to see more hesitancy among conservatives. UM. These are folks who also have a lot of questions UM. And really the common thread I would say, Lisa, is that people don't want to be told what to do. They want the information, They want to be able to ask their questions. They want to feel empowered to make decisions with themselves and for their families. So we go from the public health side to the business side, and Hans, there's a question of mobility and cities of traffic to

retail stores. You see the nexus of all of this, both with mobile data as well as your retail stores. Are you seeing people materially increased mobility as vaccinations pick up or has it been slower than you would have otherwise expected. It was a time in the May last year and we measured this sometimes on how mobile people are is how the moving in between radio towers, and it was done in some of the most urban places sixty six, meaning people moved sixty percent less they were

staying home. That mobility is slowly coming back, and we have seen a clear and improvement the loss of the months are where as the optimist not coming. But as we all know, and the optimism is in the end of the tunnel, so we just need to see that we get to this first. But clearly we see more food traffic in urban areas, more mobility in areas. Right now, Lisa, I want to go back to the branding of all this you did this advitacount for years. The idea of

a mind is a terrible thing to waste. The crying Indian ad campaign, which I remember clear as a day from Earth Day, years and years ago. Can you just message now or do you need celebrities? Dolly Parton has had the biggest impact so far. Miss Parton was out there with her COVID confidence. Do you need celebrities? So Hans Vestberg is happy with your program. Well, what I will say that, and I mentioned it at the top.

You know, trust is at the core of hesitancy, and and so I think what we have, what we know and believe, is that not only is the messaging important, but the messenger is also critically important. Who are those trusted messengers that each of these hesitant groups really believe and trust and feel comfortable with. And so for the common thread again, another common thread to Lisa's question is

that medical experts are at the forefront. They're the number one people want to understand from their nurses, pharmacists, have they taken it? And then there are amplifiers, those people that can allow sort of helpful So I don't mean to interrupt because of time, I think your observation is

so so important here. Franklin Graham set up a set of tents on Central Park outside Mount Sinai at the beginning of this What do you need from the evangelical leadership away from the medical community to get evangelicals and conservative Republicans on board? What does he add, Council need from Franklin Graham. Look, we've engaged broad based faith faith leaders who understand that this is not an either or decision.

You can have deep faith and believe that the vaccine can help you and and free you to get back to life um and and and keep your family safe hunts hunts. There also a question about the faith in a better future, and we're looking at a way to track towards a modern era of tech prowess. And before we let you go, we have to ask about the infrastructure bill that Biden has put together and the five

G build out in the United States. What's your impression of what's laid out in the proposal as it currently is. How much will it help get five G roll out in a smooth and consistent way across the United States? As I think that five years an important piece of it. But I think that when we understand where lead from five to seven years when it comes to digitalization in this country, Taylor Health, remote learning and all of that.

I think it's important. And there's three pieces that's all of the the in front accessibility, a broad band, affordability and usability and all these three needs to play together in action, the close and the digular divine that when open with this leap from with one of the most sustainable technologies mobility broad by the clown. So I think that's what we what we are talking about and talking to the administration about that we need to think holistically

in order to solve the problem. It's not only one thing, but clearly five D is an important piece of it. We're rolling out quick and we've ever done before, and more than we're ever done before, we have increased our called capis again. So this is an important piece for USS. Hans Vetsburg, thank you so much for joining us today with Verizon and their leadership on this program. And Lisa Sherman, good luck on your program. To me, it's absolutely definitive.

As we go into the end of two thousand twenty one, Miss Sherman with the AD Council President and ce Oh Katherine Man here for a three hour conversation. She's City Group Global Chief Economy is Kathy Man. I really want to talk about the locomotive here, that is the US. Geta gop and Haff talks about the divergences that are real. Are there any trains behind the locomotive and what's the caboose? Well,

you know, the US is a locomotive. It's the one country that's growing faster than everyone else relative to its historical experience. So it's the one that is going to be running a larger trade deficit over the next year or so um and virtually everyone else is either running a smaller deficit or running a bigger surplus. So, uh, the US is back back on track to be the locomotive. The problem is it's not quite as large as it

used to be relative to the global economy. It's not quite as powerful locomotive as it used to be, So it's going to be a challenge to get up the hill. And there's also a question of how much this really brings the rest of the world along with it. And that's one of the big disagreements frankly on Wall Street that I'm hearing how much just continue to bet on the US versus the rest of the world, or to bet on other areas that will get carried along. What's

your view on that? Based on a concept of a strengthening dollar given the amount of dollar denominated debt out there, well, so emerging markets are the ones who tend to be most at risk UM when we're talking about dollar denominated debt. But I think it's important to think about the two factors that are relevant when thinking about an appreciation of the dollar. The first role is that it does and and the stronger U s economy that's associated with the

stronger dollar UM. That is the trade channel, which is an important channel bringing in imports, helping economies to grow through that channel, relative to the concerns about dollar denominated debt and the exposure that countries have when you have an appreciation of the dollars, So those two are in

opposition to one another. What we have found in doing some work looking at the Taper tantrum period relative to where we are now, is that many more economies are in the position of gaining when the dollar appreciates, because not only do they have dollar denominated debt, but they also have dollar denominated reserves, and so you have to consider that as well when thinking about the exposure on

the financial side. So this is an argument perhaps that the rest of the world can come along more than some people think. Is that your view here that we're going to see an acceleration that picks up speed in the emerging markets in perhaps Europe? Perhaps two is the U s slows down well, So I think we have to consider not you know, the US is not the only thing that's in is going to be positive for

emerging markets. There are a lot of negatives or downside risks, and of course that has to do with the vaccination path um and how soon those economies can get vaccinated and how soon they can get back on track with their own internal domestic demand. I mean, that's an important ingredient in the growth process for any economy, is domestic demand.

They can't entirely depend on export led growth. Again, we have to remember the US as a locomotive is not as strong a locomotive as it used to be, say twenty years or four years used to be. In part of this, Catherine Man, is whether we are a more open or less open economy. Where does the US stand

right now is an open economy that dynamic to other nations. Well, you know, the globalization as as a general rule has been on the back foot for more than a decade um in terms of their slowing of integration into the global economy. There's basically been a generalized slowdown in terms of that integration, and the US is no exception from that. Uh And, of course, on the back of the last administration's approach to trade policy, which was to be very protectionists,

that of course, uh made the US less open. The general tenor of the debate is not towards openness. So we have to be concerned about both the politics of of of an enlargening trade deficit that we that we will see in the data. We have to worry about the politics of it leading to potentially even more of a retrenchment in terms of globalization. Do we have to

worry about debt sustainability? Uh So, debt sustainability, it's very much a question of whish economies are going to be able to grow fast enough to put them on put themselves on a sustainable path. Uh So, there's an intimate relationship between domestic demand led growth export orientation. For most of the world UH and debt sustainability. But in the longer term, of course, what really matters for debt sustainability is long term capacity or of what we call potential output,

and that depends intimately on business investment. We've got to have business investment being catalyzed by the infrastructure programs that the US is talking about, that Europe is talking about, that a number of countries are talking about in the context of their net zero commitments. Something that is climate oriented is going to require private sector investment, and that's a critical ingredient, along with of course labor markets and

UH and and productivity growth. Kiltainman, a few years ago at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, you had the privilege of working with Rudy Dornbush. He handed you to the Bible as you graduated from m I T tell us about the Bible, that the great Rudy Dornbush, and did you right? So Rudy was one of my thesis advisors,

Paul Grupman being the other. And what really gave me signed copy of the first edition of Robert Mundel's International Economics um and that really represents both both Rudy's his first edition, by the way, open economy macro economics which integrated goods and markets and asset markets in one place. You know that his bible and then of course his mentors bible, meaning Robert Mundel's international economics. Those are really my bible's today. The continuity of this doctor man is

absolutely extraordinary. I can think of nowhere else where there's such a cadence as there is an international economics. What

do we think today that Robert Mundel invented fifty years ago? Well, you know, the most famous thing that we have been working with in the open economy that has his name on it is the Mundell Fleming model, which put three different markets together, the sort of the I S curve meaning the the investment savings part of the economy, the monetary policy the so called LM curve, and then the open economy meaning balance of payments and how that change

with regard to exchange rates and external demand. So um, those are the three markets that continue to be the important ones. How we measure them as different, how we think that they work together is different, But those still are the drivers of economic performance, and today taken for granted and at the time foundationally and revolutionary for Robert

Mandel dr Man, thank you so much. With City Group, their global chief economists, Laureate of Columbia years old, who were to do here is really frame where this equity market is. And you can do that by looking back at decades long ago and far away. On a Friday evening, Martin's wide would sit across some LaRue Keiser and he would quietly whisper, don't fight the Fed. She was at zwag Avatar years ago, Liziene Saunders out of Delaware, and of course has become one of our most important equity

stock market voices across this nation. Lizene Saunders joins us this morning from Charles schwab Boy. I'll tell you, Lizie, the money that's been lost by people don't fight this Fed.

They've gotten crushed, haven't they. It really is quite extraordinary, and but a lot of people don't remember, since we're not all that past the when your anniversary at below is that it was actually on Latch twenty third, two thousand and twenty that the said announced many of the backstop learning facilities they were put in place specifically for the pandemic that kind of bridge over to help the main street side of the economy, and that just showed then,

and I think we'll bill are watching the power of the Fed's words, even if it predates specific accents. The consensus launch of earnings off of grimness a year ago is up fifty earnings. What is the liz Ane Saunders run rate of actual earnings growth forward? Well, so fifty four is for the second quarter, which, of course the comp relative to the second quarter of last year is the easiest. First quarter consensus is up twenty four, and you've got big leadership areas in terms of contributions at

the sector level consumer discretionary, financial material. So clearly the cyclical bias to what you're going to see the biggest pops um you know, longer term, we've seen earnings growth significantly above GDP growth obviously, but I think the story looking ahead will be one potentially about profit margins, and I think that's key to watch and list sent two in this quarters or first quarter orange season, which begins imminently, is what do we hear from companies um, not just

about first quarter earnings but guidance for the out earnings. Do more companies step up their pace of guidance, because remember you had a record number of companies with drawing guidance altogether at the midpoint of last year. But also what many of the price increases that we're seeing in this gutting inflation, what that means for profit margins as we look to the next couple of quarters. And behind this uncertainty is a question of whether we're setting the

bar too high or the bar too low. And just want to bring you this news from CNN that President Biden wants all adults vaccinated or at least eligible to be vaccinated by April nineteen, again bringing forward the deadline originally it was May one this idea of perhaps we set our expectations too low at the outset when it comes to earning lissans. Are we setting our expectations too low or too high? I don't think we know the

answer to the yet. The latest trends in terms of revisions and ostensiblieve that's as as analysts get more guiding is for the first quarter we're up to sixty seven positive revisions versus negative revisions, So that trend is good. But we certainly may get to a point where you shift from last year's story of analysts when left basically to their own devices to try to gauge where UH

numbers were going to fall. Ended up bearing on the side of setting the bar too low, and that's why we had a record beat rate in the second quarter, record beat rate in the third quarter, we had a strong beat rate in the fourth quarter. In the fourth quarter we actually went back into positive territory in year over year growth terms. The question is the enthusiasm associated with the reopening of the economy that strength were likely

to see in GDP numbers. UH The analysts now been beholden enough that they're going to raise the bar, and there's just there's there's no precedent for the kind of environment and the nature of this crisis and the impact to earnings and visibility even at this stage, regardless of what we know about her immunity and vaccine. So I think it's it's still really really tricky to try to gauge where the bar is set relative to where companies are going to report LAS. And there's a wisdom of analysts,

and then there's a wisdom of markets. And right now from the what you can see in markets are equity traders pricing in a greater proportion of beats than the equity analysts on Wall Street, the idea that they're actually foreseeing and pricing in something much more robust. Well, those companies that are providing guidance are are quite optimistic, and

that's where you're seeing the upward revisions. I think analysts covering industries or companies where there's still that limited guidance and you can think about the obvious areas, whether it's in leisure, hospitality, the service society, the economy where they're still isn't that visibility or based knowledge yet of the reopening is going to look like that's still a prospective thing. I think on the good side of the economy, I do worry that estimate bar may have gotten up a

little bit. I think the whole pent up demand story which has been driving optimism, I think is more valid on the services side of the economy than it is on the good side of the economy. Pretty much across the spectrum of durable goods, be it um, housing, autos, these cars, anything home improvement related electronics UM I actually think that there is a risk of pent down demand, not so much pent up demand, because we're well above

pre pandemic levels in those segments. Of the the economy, and I think there's too much extrapolating of that strength in the past year out into the future. Is that one final question, what are we doing with our money? What does Schwab see that we're actually allocating out in four oh one case. You know, it's been interesting the flows lately. They've definitely taken on a little bit more of a defensive posture, at least at the subasset class level.

So the flows into utility utilities are actually the strongest in the past months, which is quite extraordinary. And then prior hot areas like communications services and financials are on the lower end of the spectrum, but also at the broader asset class level, definitely seeing a pick up an interest outside the US, so positive flows in the map past month or so into parts of the rest of the world, particularly emerging markets, and actually a bit of

outflows out of the domestic equity side. And we we've had an you know, and overweight on developed international um equities since the beginning of this year, and uh, we're seeing that in the flow data at least in the past month or two. It Sanders, thank you so much, Chief investment strategist of Charles Schwab Right now on our domestic politics in America. We look northeast of St. Louis to Cardinals Territory, moveing up southeast of Springfield, and then

on up somewhere in the vicinity of Chicago. It is a narrow district, the thirteenth Congressional District of Illinois, and the Republican Rodney Davis joins us UH this morning, Congress from thank you so much for joining us. Do you need a six lane highway from Taylorville into Springfield? What are you gonna get out of the infrastructure bill? You know what, we already have four lanes between Taylorville and Springfield. It's great for for our community here in Grade, for

central Illinois. UM. You know, I just hope we get some bipartisanship out of the infrastructure bill. That's what I'm hoping for. When we get by partisanship, we need to go to centrist Democrats who need to get reelected and centrist Republicans two cycles ago you barely won reelection this time around, granted you did better than ever. Are you a centrist Republican and what is the common ground you

have with Senator Mansion of West Virginia. Well, I am listed as the thirteenth most bipartisan member of the House according to the Luger Center Senator Mansion. He's showed that he can be a force in the Senate. The problem we have right now with this infrastructure package and bipartisanship was the message that Ranking Member Sam Graves and I and a small group of Republicans sent directly to the President,

to the Vice President, to Secretary BUDDA. Jedge in the Oval Office a few weeks ago, that we need by partisanship. I just don't think Speaker Pelosi and Leader Schumer are going to allow the administration to go that route. Though, Congressman, giving your experience on the Committee UH for Transportation Infrastructure, Roads and Bridges, this is your purview. What does a bipartisan bill, a true bipartisan pill that could pass look like?

How big is it and what does it focus on? Well, I don't like to get into debates about how much something could cost. Let's actually dedicate a bill towards rebuilding our roads and our bridges, our waterways, our airports are

locks and dams. If we can do that, you will have Republicans crawling all over each other to support a bill that The problem we're going to have, though, is, I believe this infrastructure proposal is going to be nothing more than the Green New Deal disguised under a convenient infrastructure title that will dedicate a small amount towards Rhodes bridges, waterways, etcetera.

It's very frustrating. You see in the proposal the administration wants to spend fifty billion dollars to stand up another agency within the Department of Commerce and forty two billion for all of the locks and dams, all of the waterways, all of the ports and even airports in this country. That's not a proposal, the congressman putting aside this particular proposal.

Let's say there was a bipartisan agreement on the infrastructure plans that you thought were necessary, and let's say it was a pretty expensive plan, would you support raising corporate taxes in order to pay for it? Not at all. I think opening up the income tax code UH to

pay for infrastructure is the wrong way to go. UH. There's a lot of talk from Secretary Buddha Jedge and others who I had We've already enjoyed a good working relationship with the Secretary Um talking about jobs being created with this package, I want to know how many jobs are going to be cost in the small businesses that are going to have to pay more in taxes coming out of a pandemic. That's the last thing we should

be doing. Corson Davis, I'm sure that you wanted the All Star Game to be held under the stadium there in the shadow of Stan Museal and St. Louis Cardinals that went to the Rockies. I understand that, but it's the why the move of the All Star Game. On this debate in Georgia over the Voting Rights Act and what Georgia will do about its elections, common please on

what the Republican response should be to find fairer elections. Well, first of all, I just wish some in in corporate America would have read the bill in Georgia and would have seen the expansion of access to voting for all Georgians. We had problems in Fulton County run by Democrats where they had lines out the door. Um. This bill would open more precincts, and those are the types of issues that I certainly hope Corporate America stays off a Twitter

and starts actually looking at legislation. My biggest fear is that Democrats are going to try and act like HR one that passed only with a partisan roll call, and the only bipartisan about it was the Democrat opposition joining all Republicans. I think they're going to try to turn that into the national version of George's reforms, and that

bill would be a disaster Congress. From the Georgia distinction, as we're moving the decision process of elections from the Secretary of State of Georgia and the executive branch over to legislative control, legislative controls and ancient art form and your state of Illinois, is that the trap we have and that our voting processes become a legislative process and not that of the executive branch. Well, we need to make sure that our states and our localities have control

over their elections as the Constitution puts forth. The Bocrats have tried now for two Congresses, and I've led the fight in introducing HR one, which would nuclear rise and expand expand procedures like ballot harvesting that have already been corrupted with fraud. We didn't seat an elected Republican in North Carolina's ninth district in because one of his operatives used a fraudulent process by trying to create a ballot harvesting process in that district. And the unfortunate thing is

he'll likely go to jail because of that. But if he was in California, what he did would have been perfectly legal, and that's wrong. Those are the types of policies that Democrats in Washington are trying to push forth. Also there to add seven point two million dollars in public money to their own campaigns. And I don't want HR one to become the next rally and cry because

it is not a voting rights bill at all. Congressman, part of what I'm caring for you has heard of this decrying of an attempted by partisanship that absolutely fizzles. Is now very much a democratic effort in the House and on the presidency. But a lot of people say that they just learned from prior administrations, including the Obama administration, that tried to do something on a bipartisanship level and didn't get anything done. Just quickly, what's your response to

that on on infrastructure? Because they failed miserably and what they proposed. You can't come up with a piece of legislation that you know was only going to appease one side and say take it or leave it. Look at the last time we had a non reauthorization infrastructure package that was under the Obama administration with the Obama Era Area Era stimulus bill called ARA. That bill had about

six percent of the funding dedicated towards infrastructure. Even the current Democrat Chair of the Transportation Infrastructure Committee, Peter Defacio, voted against that bill because it wasn't enough infrastructure. I

see Democrats going down that exact same path. The proposal they laid for is woefully underfunded when it comes to rebuilding our roads and bridges, And if that's what's going to happen, they're going to negotiate with the far left of their party and it's only going to get worse for jobs. Rodney Davis, that is the largest backyard I've seen and I think thirty years. I hope the kid that's mowing that lawn is not using a push mower. They're out on the John Dere golf cart or whatever

pushing it around. Rodney Davis, Thank you so much to Congressman from the thirteenth District in Illinois right now and to focus on China with Stephen Roach of Yale University, his book The Next Asia, years and years ago set the tone for essays on China. He followed it up with an important book on the dysfunction UH that we have with China. And right now, folks, it is a new UH dysfunction. Steven Stephen Roun tell me about the new codependency of China with China and AMERRAA Is it

the same as the old codependency? Well, the thing we know about codependency tom UM, whether it's human relationships or economic relationships UH, is it's never constant. It reflects the tension that builds between interpersonal in this case bilateral UH partners in UH trade and economic commerce. And you know,

China's changed its growth model. We're uncomfortable with that. We've raised a lot of other objections about China's behavior in areas like geostrategic strategy and human rights UH, and so we've taken a unilateral trade action against them and the Trump administration. And what my fear is, and I wrote about this recently, is that by not changing from Trump's policy UM President Biden's administration has been boxed in by UH really venomous politics and is afraid to break out

and try a new approach. And we need a new approach or this relationship we're going to go from add to worst. Your US saying Project Syndicate was exceptionally important. I want to expand it from boxed in with China to take off your book of years ago, boxed in of the next Asia and the idea that it's not just about China, but it's about the Pacific room as well. To use a phrase from President Obama, what should be

the pivot in strategy of the Biden administration. Well, the pivot was a part of the problem because it was clearly aimed back in the Biden ad excuse me, the Obama administration of putting a lot of pressure on China, excluding China from what then was called t P p

UH and UM. That really pushed China to take a lot of I think destabilizing actions of its own UH in the South China see in the Belt and Road initiative, and that then culminated in the trade war that we're now trying to find a way out of after four

years of disaster. And the Trump administration. Professor Roach, do you think that the infrastructure Plan as it's laid out as a way to increase some of the capacity of tech sectors and the five G willed out in the United States is an effective way to engage in this codependency that you talk about, perhaps get a little bit more independence for the United States. Well, we certainly need to upgrade our infrastructure. A lot of people have been

talking about that that for a number of years. I have to give the the creative side of the Biden administration a lot of credit for expanding infrastructure into areas that we never considered it at all under the general elk of what is infrastructure? But you know, the question arises, and you've debated on the show, is as noble as the objectives are. Is anybody giving much consideration to how

we pay for this? I mean, with interest rates at zero right now, you can do anything you want, including um, uh, not just infrastructure, but uh all sorts of massive social programs. But what happens if and when interest rates start to go back normal? And uh, that's the unanswered question right now and is to be Steve. All of our listeners and viewers want to know what you think about asset

bubble inflation. You were definitive on this at Morgan Stanley years ago of saying there's mandates of the FED, and one is to monitor asset bubbles. Is the FED monitoring an asset bubble right now? Well, it's certainly monitoring it, but it's also doing a great job in creating it. Um. And so you've got uh, the combination of zero interest rates,

massive liquidity injections uh spilling over into financial markets. And you know, you guys reported you know on your show every day from um you know, SPACs um to UM bitcoin uh two. And now we have I guess a lot of froth in housing markets. This has all the classic manifestations of a very frothy environment. And you know, the FED is basically um uh talking out of both sides of its mouth. It was worried about asset bubbles, yet it is responsible for creating the conditions that are

creating these bubbles. At the same time, although you will some people have said that the FED policies and some of the fiscal spending that we've seen will lead to a very depreciated dollar, one that is highly below where it is currently. That leads to some sort of inflationary push that is really detrimental to the country. We have seen the opposite this year, as we've seen the growth

that has stemmed from some of these policies. Do you think that this is short lived and that we will continue to see a tremendous dollar weakening or do you think that this highlights the potential success of some of these programs. Now, I've been one of the ones who have been outspoken about the downward pressures coming on a dollar at lisa UM. You know, it was a call that was out of consensus in the second half of last year, and it worked and it's not working uh

so far in two thousand twenty one. But I think the combination of plunging domestics saving a massive current account deficit a fad that would normally respond to those um developments by tightening policy, but won't uh that that's going to continue to put further sharp downward pressure on the dollar. It's not working now, but I suspe will as we

moved through the year. Stephen Rhodes, thank you so much with Yale University, and of course Steven wrote some would say in helping with that Hyman to invent modern market economics. Morgan Stanley. This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Thanks for listening. Join us live weekdays from seven to ten am Eastern on Bloomberg Radio and on Bloomberg Television each day from six to nine am for insight from the best in economics, finance, investment,

and international relations. And subscribe to the Surveillance podcast on Apple podcast, SoundCloud, Bloomberg dot com, and of course on the terminal. I'm Tom Keene and this is Bloomberg