Surveillance: BOFA's Moynihan on Economic Recovery

University of Chicago over the years. And John, it's not just about oil, but it's about the commodity complex in general. Do they get out front of a pandemic and try to expect the recovery. Well, the thing that Jeff I think was on top of was what would happen if we started to break you'll getting near to breaching storage capacity. And once we got to that point, how quickly this market would have to adjust, Tom and everything else, which is fully to place on a really small amount of time.

And that's basically what you saw a month ago. The real threat of breaching storage capacity prices plunge aggressively lower than everything. House has to correct and correct fast, must listen, must watch for Global Wall Street. Jeffrey Curry of Golden Sex Jeffrey, good morning. I know that Lisa and John I have a lot of oil questions. Let me ask you a general question. Do commodities expect out like equities? If equities are reaching out six months, two years, etcetera.

Do commodity participants do the same thing at most? Maybe in like oil thirty days? Um? I mean there is some expectations in but very small. And you know I can find out. Commodities are spot assets, UM. You know, financial markets their anticipatory assets. They look out to the future. So today's spot price for oil has to clear today's supply and demand. So, jeff how much optimism is being priced into that thirty day outlook for oil right now?

Far too much? You know. We argue that the prices above thirty dollars a barrel, particularly on w T I UM, incentivised producers to bring supply back online that was shut off. The only way this market rebalances and creates that optimism that the market's trying to price in is that that production stays up. That's the point that Tom's make it. Commodities are spot assets, UM, and so the investors go

in bit it up. They try to anticipate it. And by the way, every time a commodity market price anticipates something ins and tears for the investors. Jeff. Given the fact that we are already seeing shale drills come back online exactly to your point, could we see negative spot prices once again, at least in the futures market in

the near term contracts in the US. Probably not. And the reason I say that is that the magnitude of the surpluses going back last day or this April when we saw the negative prices were unpressed globally, they were running twenty million barrels per day. That is an absolute massive number UM. Having a four or five hundred thousand barrels per day of additional supply comeback online not going

to create that same type of risk um. So it's so I think the only thing they could recreate that environment again would be a second wave where demand losses are as big or even worse than what we saw the first time around, which I'd argue pretty unlikely because we know how to cope with it now. Jeff. I think the story of the last couple of days has been about demand demand normal I think, and how quick they can normalize. We've had some reports out of China

that we're back to pre COVID levels. If you're looking at demand in China in the moment, you have any visibility on how quickly demand is coming back online, yeah, I'd be a little cautious, you know that. I mean they argue with you know, thirty million barrels per day right now versus at December, at the end of last year, it is running thirteen point seven. So that's still down. You know, it's still down like three or four percent um.

The most recent data headed down five percent, So it's you know, I'm not going to go as far as to say that, uh, you know, it's a full recovery. I think the parts there's two things you take out of it. Commuting demand is up because people are too afraid to take public transport, and the jet demand is still down. Seriously, Jeff Curry, tell us about your world commodities folded into some of these glide paths of the pandemic in Brazil. I noticed the other day Indonesia is

not not doing well at all. I mean some of these commodity and almost commodity importing company countries are really struggling. How will the pandemic affect your world? I mean, the the biggest and most direct impact, it's a sharp drop off in capex, which starts to create supply problems. UM. Further down the road. You know we see it in oil UM. You know you look at even like exon Flash their CAPEX budgets. UM decline rates began to set in.

And in the energy markets, UM, you're not making investments in all sorts of different commodities, whether if it's mining UM, which starts to create supply constraints as we look further out. So UM, I would argue that, yeah, it hurts demand right now. I mean India's gold demand was very weak. UM. But I think the longer term UM impact really is on investment. So link that framework into Brazilian reality. Mean I gotta make some money here? Am I going to

go weaker reality? Going through six? I mean, link your commodity world into the f X world of Golden Sex. How do you play it well? When you when the dollar strengthens, commodity prices typically could go down. And the reason for that is you take like the as a you get a weaker Chile and pay so you can pay. Labor becomes lower cost and as a result in dollars,

the price of the commodity goes down. Um In the current environment, I mean to continue to argue for further strength in the dollar when you're sitting near you know, all time highs um I think it's kind of difficult. But in no way am I going to go out and argue that we're going to get a snap back and I want to be short the dollar, but I think you know it's I would. I'm not focused on the dollar right now just because it's not it's not

a good story one direction or the other. We're speaking with Jeff Curry Goldman Sachs Global head of Commodities Research, and we've been focusing a lot on the price of oil. The other area that's been a hotspot has been the price of gold reach and climbing toward all time highs. When it comes to euro denominations and the dollar, it's the highest in more than seven years. I'm trying to figure out what the upside here is. What the main argument that you buy into here for an ongoing strength

in the precious metal is um our. Our near term target is eight ounce, So it's got a male modest upside. From here. I want to first talk about what we know. Above eighteen hundred, we're going into the world of the unknown. UM. What we do know is the two main drivers of gold demand. Investment demand, primarily in the developed markets is very strong, driven by the stimulus. Low real rates in gold is just another defensive asset. UM. You see it

in the et F holdings have gone up sharply. UM. The other big main driver of gold is the consumersumption or consumer demand in emerging markets like Indian China. Let for let's say jewelry. UM. India's numbers were atrocious that came out recently. UM. The Chinese numbers still have yet to start to pick up. UM. And so the one leg that's missing and we think you're going to get it back in China and first India's a question mark is that consumer demand. That's what probably gets you to

eighteen hundred. Now the question is how do you go above eighteen hundreds of two thousand's. That's the world of the unknown. You have to start making assumptions on inflation expectations off the back of the large stimulus. UM. The reason why it's difficult to model. Monitor to model is you're running into the zero bound on nominal rates um So to make the argument you know that you know gold is gonna go much higher, you need real rates to go much more negative while the nominal rates stays

fixed at zero. That means you have to make an assumption on inflation. Jeffredy small stuff as always, Jeff carry in London. Jeff, what's London like at the moment? If you made it into the square mile over the last months? For your answer, is this work from home? A government? It's work work from home? I have I haven't seen the square mile in a long time. But the weather is great here, and you know it's it's not as up and running as as New York in the US.

Jeffreys the city. Don't you missed the city? Town? I do? I do? I miss? I miss I missed the square mile. You come out of bank station, see the Bank of English. It said they said bunk. You call it bunk, bunk, bunk in London? Bunk? Who call is it bunk? The British they call it be given it a toll by Frenchman. There's something like that. I do I miss the city We're gonna get over there, folks at some point here is said and don Jeffrey Curry thank you as always.

Jimmy Sullivan joins us some TV securities. Jim, we'll give us an update and give us Chairman Paul and Secretary Manution an update on your call. In the unemployment rate, how high can it go? I Tom and all this morning. Well, I mean a lot of it to do with measurement as well. I mean, you're sight plus numbers, and arguably it is there if if you you count everybody's who's suddenly become unemployed. Obviously, the number for last month was

fourteen points seven percent. But I mean if you had just for the drop of the participation rate and b less suggest that some people are miss class deified and as employed but just not on their job, and they probably should have been unemployed. If you include those, the number would have been probably around So those sort of statistical issues could continue for the next couple of months. So I don't think we will necessarily see a number, but we probably will see a higher number in April

than we saw in May. But the hope is that after that, from June on, the numbers will start coming down again. So yes, I mean, measured maybe properly, it's plus number, but we may not actually see numbers that high in any event. And I mean this is not the great depression in the sense that we shouldn't be extrapolating these numbers that there will be improvement in the second half of the year. We hope there will be improvement,

significant improvement in the months to come. Jim, let's talk about the Chairman before the Senate a little bit late this morning. We've heard so much from Chairman Power over the last several weeks. I'm sure some people welcome that. I'm sure many others don't. What's left from Chairman Power that you haven't heard? And well, Jonathan, you were just touching on issues from our perspective, I would not expect

to get already on those today. In terms of forward guidance, I don't think that's the focus of today's testimony, which is more about the Cares Act than the four and fifty four billion it was allocated as capital backstop for the very thirteen three programs. And so yes, absolutely we're very interested in terms of forward guidance on the funds rates as well as QWI. What are the conditions for ultimate tightening, which is way down the road arguably, but

that's I don't think that's the focus today. It's more about the CARES Act. So, given the fact that there is this focus right now on future stimulus in Washington, while the markets are basically pricing in additional fiscal stimulus, they're also pricing in a near term vaccine at least later this year early next year, is it time to sell in May and go away? And well, I guess

I would be cautious for sure. I mean exactly what that means, I'm gonna try in terms of equities, et cetera, and equities of obviously had a had a good run here, and arguably there's a lot of optimism in there. I mean, obviously, even if we do get a vaccine, it'll it'll take a while to be to be fully up and running, and there are some promising results out there, and I think the net of it all is that, yeah, I mean, it's going to be a struggle to come back, but

we will. We will see positive numbers. So I mean, I don't think optimism is completely crazy in the sense that we shouldn't be extrapolating what we're seeing in April and into May. But that said, I mean this is a big hole to climb out of. It's it's going to be a long time for the economy to recover. Jimal Sullivan, what is your question for Secretary Monution? You know, we have a parlor game here with the Chairman of the Fed, the vice chairman of the rest, and we've

got all these smart questions we asked them. Folks are Michael McKee will speak with Eric rosen Gren of Boston later today as well. Nobody ever talks about the questions the Secretary monution? What would you ask him, Jim And Well, I mean, of course the markets are hurricane on seeing what what more in terms of fiscal stimulus. I mean, that's that's obviously an issue, and I think there is the senses that there is going to be another round. It's just a question of how much help is in there.

And I think everybody agrees that the states and cities will will need more aids. So again we'll let question be answered today. I suspect not, but that that's obviously an issue for markets over the next month. I think a lot of people are upset as well, Tom about how much is being done to lose some financial conditions, and it hasn't been contingent upon the companies that have

received the benefits of that maintaining the payroll. The small business program quite clearly small business lending has done that. But when it comes to the FED, the amount have built up the bandaged sheet, the amount they have loosened up financial conditions so that people can still come into

the capital markets and raise money. I think there's been a huge disappointment these companies are able to tap it to really loose credit markets largely because of what the FED has done, and not have to follow up by saying, you know what, we pledge to keep the payroll exactly where it was before COVID hit and John, what's so important about your important comment is it's a comment for June and July. Their reporting will be done on that

and that will drop. You know, there'll be some adventurous reporters, hopefully at Bloomberg News, where that will drop like a bombshell into June and July and frankly into the election season. That's the problem, isn't it, Jim, That we haven't really seen the large multinational payroll cuts yet. When we reopen and these big multinational companies take a look around at the demands backdrop, at the outlook for improvement. Are we're going to see some big job cuts outweigh as some

of these big multinationals. Isn't that just inevitable at this point, Jim, And Well, I mean it's it's it's not. I mean, certainly big companies have contributed. It's not I think just the small companies that accounted for the twenty million plus. And certainly there are a lot of furloughs out there. I mean, even companies like the auto companies obviously are starting to come back. I mean they're they're they're big companies.

So I think disproportionately it's smaller businesses. But I think across the board, when you got the twenty million decline in April and and again to the extent econ of he does start to open up again, then I think there are reasons to think that the big job losses are behind us once we get through. May thank you so much for being with us. Jim Osullivan, TV Security's chief US macro strategist. Never sleepy at the Bank of America. Always important to catch up and certainly during UH this

pandemic as well with Brian moynhan. Here is David Weston. We're welcome now our Bloomberg TV and radio and it is worldwide as we welcome also the Chairman and CEO of Bank of America, Brian moynihan. Brian, thank you so much for joining us. Last time we spoke about six weeks ago, and you said you expected a rough second quarter down, maybe some rebound in the third and fourth quarter, and then the economy really getting back to full steam sometime in a lot's happened in that six weeks. Has

your view changed, but David, our view hasn't changed. But it comes back to what I said before. This is a healthcare crisis. And as you're starting to see the healthcare crisis be mittig not solved yet, you're starting to see the economy start to recover. And we can talk

about that. But the approach to winning UH, the war against the crisis UH for us, has been a customer centric, community centric, employee centric move and so you know, we've been out there driving, we've been supporting our clients and trying to make sure they have the credit and capital to UH to do what they need to do and help them through this trough of activity in the second quarter, and you can see that in the loan balances extended, the p P P loans and how the things we've done.

We've helped our consumer clients through waivers so they have the ability to have better cash flow in the house. We helped our teammates by saying no layoffs so they know their job is secure, and then getting them safe and working from home. And then we've helped our communities by contributions and a hundred million dollars and c d f I investments which are community belot and financial institutions at two fifty million dollars of which about undred seventy

million is already out. So all that is offsetting the impacts of the current second quarter down draft that you've seen with the unemployment numbers, and we don't see much differently, it's just that we're starting to see us come out the other side of this. Frankly. So, we have heard from the Federal Reserve and they've expressed some concern at least that as this pandemic continues, there may be some threat to the overall system and specifically talks for example

about commercial real estate. Are you seeing some parts of the market that are particularly vulnerable on the credit side. Remember that the US economy is going to be depended on the activity the consumer base, and and so you always have to start there when you talk about the US.

So even though we have this year from the Bank American research team, which is the best in the world, you know, being minus five percent five and a half percent this year and plus five percent next year, the real question will be how to consumers behave And in what we've seen since the low point in the second couple first couple weeks of April, in terms of everything in terms of their spending because of the stay at home edicts, in terms of their borrowing activity, in terms

of the transfer of money. Um, you saw all that all to a lowest level, and obviously things like travel and hotels and things are most affected. But as you've seen steadily as you went through the third week April then on into the first part of May, you're seeing their activities pick up even in the states that are still understay from home, and you're seeing the activity pick up much quicker in the places they're going back to work.

And so for the month of May, we're seeing it down about you know, two or three four percent versus last year. UH for the year today it's down a couple of percent. And that's the question. The length of this is going to be how the consumers behave given the high levels unemployment that you've seen published, when people get back to work, jobs coming back in the stimulus payments which are all hitting the street of the last few weeks, and how all works together to see if

the consumer's behavior changed. And when I hear when you hear Governor, chair Pal and others, the concern I have is have we changed consumer behavior as we look out across the next four or five quarters. Well, that is a key question, maybe the key question, Brian, clearly when it comes to consumer I know you've already taken about four point eight billion dollar reserve against credit possible losses given the level unemployment, which is really quite stunning. Do

you think that's gonna be enough? Well, what you've seen so far is with the consumer help, we've we've granted about a million a half payment deferrals. But if you look at the actual interesting statistics about thirty five or the people ask for credit card payment deferral one ahead

and made the payment. And if you go and a look at those consumers, what you see is because of the UH leave aside the issue of where the money is coming from, you're seeing higher balance in our account and that's because the stimulus between you know, the I P payments, between the enhanced unemployment, these measures taken by Congress and by the administration by the FED have worked

as offset the unfortunate aspects of very high unemployment. And so so far you're not seeing the delinquent seas and things rise vs. You've seen payment deferrals UH increase, but you're seeing them start to level off and come down in our book, and so we expect to see you charge offs coming later on as as as this thing goes on. But the reality is right now you're not seeing the kind of credit damage that you'd expect to

see with this amount of down draft and activity. The question is what happens next, and that's we're all watching. And to that very point you said in the past, China to some extent may give us some indication. We've seen numbers coming out of China, Brian that indicate the industrial production has come back pretty quickly. All consumption is coming back as well. But on the other hand, consumer

maybe not so much with retail sales. Does that give you cause for concern back here in the United States, Well, it does because the question is how did you change behavior?

So when you saw Chinese, uh, you know, they went into this earlier, they locked down earlier, they came out earlier, and you know, we're back in our offices in China moving from people back towards so you're starting to see normalization of activity and in the questions what's the underlying activity and restaurants and and shopping and things like that. And so you saw an immediate burst of activity as they opened back up and see it fall back down.

And that we have to watch in the States is there'll be a burst of activity in some of these places as people who have been you know, in their homes for six, five, six, seven, eight weeks go back out and do things and will let sustain. And that's where you need to look more fundamentally on things like car purchases and things like house purchases and see where

they start to end up over time. But remember the baseline projection for most people is the economy doesn't get back to its current size until you get to sort of the end of next year. That's the definition of recovery. So but each quarter from this quarter forward is increased

economic activity. And what we have to make sure and all the policies and stimulus have been put in place or making sure, is that despite the very highnemployment, despite the issues of who's unemployed, despite the issues getting that we need to get people back to work from the human toll of all that these stimulus is offsetting. It is an attempt off set that. And you have to see that play out of our time, Brian, you have something like a hundred eighty thousand I think people working

from home right now. You talked about what you're doing over in Asia. When do you expect him to come back and how and by the way, how many will they all come back? Well, that the ideas we have We've always had people who worked outside the standard office setting, and that's something we do. Um, there's a great debate you know, with this change forever the workforce in America and where they want to work. We'll see that play out. But that is that is further out there in your term.

We have we have been open every day, we have not shut down except for the branches we closed out of concerns to keep our teammates safe in those in those branches. Um we which is about branches. Everything else has been open. We've been functioning every day and we're beginning to open those branches, especially in the States, are reopening slowly but surely. So we have the ability to

operate very well, very much under control. Our technops team under Kathy Bisson's leadership, did a fabulished job of putting us in position to have a hundred eighty thousand people

work from home, so we can operate this way. So we have the luxury to go back slowly and with social distancing requirements, with temperature taking while all the policies that all employers want to put in place, you know, the the ability of the luxury putting people back in place carefully also takes a burden off of the communities we operate in, not to have high level of cases are perfections and having people move around and creating pressure on the community. So we will go back slowly. We

haven't said any plans yet. We have a top talent team working on the reentry back to the office. It's not back to work. We'll work and every day it's back to the office. Yes, sure, no, I understand, Brian. Finally, we're going to hear from Federal Reserve Chair J Pow today as part of the cares Actor report on that he's been doing a fair amount taking already. What would you like to hear from Chair Pile today? I think if you're going to hear from both second reminution Schair Pole.

But and I think people have to stack. You know, there's a the p p P program is now. You know, it still has money left. The applications are still coming in. That dollar volume of loans is going up, but the number loans is going up faster. So the loans are smaller and small. In our case, we've done three thousand of them as of this morning, eighty thousand average balance. Uh. It's the employers are under a hundred or under ted employees. Uh. And so there's a small business that are getting the

help they need. And so I think what you want to hear is where's the next rounds of their ideas to continue to put money into the economy to help because it's not an unlimited resource, so we need to keep adding carefully in the areas I think that need the most help in the near term of the States because of the incredible budget pressure they've been put under, and if we don't help them, we'll see them have to make budget justments which will add to the unemployment

burden to the hospitals and things. Is similar issue in terms of having to shut down and lose revenue and they need to get that whole plug so they can get back to it. And in some respect some of the nonprofits in the performance nonprofits, especially the same issue university.

So that the idea is the stimulus has to continue help Americans through the unemployment, assis benefits, uh uh and things like that, but also has to it can be targeted in X rounds towards these places that just have operating holes that we have to decide as a society we're going to replace so that they can get back and provide a great services they provide. And so that's what you like to hear in terms of the work. And there's a lot of discussion about facilities and usage

and other up and operating. A lot of these facilities were put in place to stabilize and you see massive stabilization in the market so that you know high grade issues will have another record month, probably this month. Uh uh uh. You know, high yield will have a strong month if you're starting to see converts and some equity deals get done. The stabilization and the fact those facilities aren't all used, it's actually good news. That means the

markets are doing what they're doing and providing capital. So what I think people get focused on is how much money's outstanding on facility X or something. The reality is having it there provides a comfort that the private sector can drive it in the banking system can drive it. So whether it's main street, whether some of these other facilities, you know, the debate ought to be not about whether it being used about the news. If they're not being used,

that means you've seen stability the funding structures. Fascinating. Thank you so much. Brian really appreciated spending time with us. As Brian moynihan, he is the chairman and CEO of Bank of America. We want to thank all our radio listeners for joining us and this is Bloomberg. One of the great joys of doing this, folks, has been over the last number of weeks learning and speaking to the

consistent excellence of the Johns Hopkins University medical team. We've talked to people at the Bloomberg School of Public Health. Of course Michael Bloomberg, the founder of Bloomberg LP, is the philanthropist there, but also to their medical school and

their nursing school. This morning a conversation where NASA ernest we have the adrenaline rush of the ambulances in in the days have diminished, but what hasn't really changed is the demand for i c U. Bit well, the you know, the demand for the i CU beds and the ability to go into intensive care. Right now, what does that signal to you? Is it still a large body of older people most vulnerable, or is it across all age groups.

It's interesting it is the majority of the age group that we're seeing here at Hopkins that's impacted is actually in the thirty to fifty year old range. It is spread across all ranges. But that was very surprising to us to see that it wasn't just the elderly population. But now you make a point right in saying, look, reopening isn't relaxing. But how do you change perception because a lot of people will say, well, look, you know, we're over the worst, so actually I can get back

to a normal life. That's a very good question. One of the things that you have to do is you have to have a good message about the balance between science and economics and not have it as simply political all the time. And if you notice, you see it. That what we see quite frequently. But really the things that have worked are the masking the social distancing. That part needs to stay. But are people understanding is it not clear from the authorities or are people refusing to

do that? So I don't know, you know what your perception is in what could be done better? Sure, so people are, they're relaxing. I was out the other day and I noticed many people without a face mask and that wasn't the way it was a few weeks ago. So while I don't want this to be an acceleration of doom and gloom, I do want people to really understand that in order for us to stay ahead of this curve that we've been working so hard on, we

need to keep the mask on. I saw your segment about Uganda where they're giving mass to all of the children. That's an important message. We need to keep those messages going. Masking, social distancing, washing your hand are all very important things. We are at a different place, but we are not completely out of the woods yet. News earnest with us with Johns Hopkins University School of Nursing, and we look for those updates tomorrow and here in the coming weeks

as well. Cam Harvey, Professor Finance at the FUCAL School of Business at the University, former professor of mine. Actually, uh, professor, thanks so much for joining us here. I tell you, as I think back to my FUKAL at years, Professor, I don't recall you or any other professors telling teaching us anything about a pandemic and what that means for economies. Give us your sense of kind of how you're seeing the Federal Reserve, central banks around the world, Congress, how

everybody's trying to react to this pandemic. What do you what? What what are you seeing right now? Yeah, that's the first thing, all Tom, great to be on the show. Um. My first lecture in risk management is on something called systemic risk, and systemic risk is really hard to hedge, really hard to mitigate, and we kind of brainstorm different systemic risks and you could think of, let's say, a nuclear war between the US and Russia. UM. There's no

place to hide nowhere on Earth. UM. And one of the four systemic risks that we talk about is pandemic. And it's interesting discussion because pandemic's nothing new. It's no black swan. We've had plenty of pandemics. UM, it is unusual this time around given the response, UH that the economies have effectively been stopped. Uh So if there's any black swan, it's the policy response that's completely unexpected and

you get numbers that are just off the chart. I don't UM look forward to dealing with the macroeconomic day in the future when you've got such extreme observations. So the response is the black swan. So the FED, you know, I think a lot of market participants, Professor would say the FED has done a relatively admiral job here. They were early, they were aggressive, appears, they were I think they clearly message kind of what they were looking to do.

We heard from Chairman Pale on Sunday on sixty minutes saying there's still more tools in his toolbox. How do you kind of view the FETs performance to date? So early on I was very nervous UM and certain actions that they took at the beginning I was critical of and still am. For example, they cut the interest rate from one point five percent to one percent really early on. That's what you're talking about being kind of early. UM, Well, one point five percent is already a low interest rate.

And in the global financial crisis when they cut fifty basis points in two thousand and seven, the rate of interest they started from was five point to five So then they cut again from one percent to zero percent, and soon usually start doing that, you run the risk of a liquidity trap that and we saw this effectively UM play out where the third year bond at some point was less than one percent. Who wants to buy

the thirty year bond had less than one percent? When just like a moderate increase in rates like one UM, you get hammered. You lose on that bond. So given given the amount of QUEI going on, giving the amount of money creation, UH, the risk shifts and the bonds are no longer safe haven. Kim. One final question, if we could cam and I want to go back to Madigliana Miller, any idea of on and equities and we all learn this and it's all theory and and all

that as well. Most of what we're doing now, Professor is not in those textbooks. They're not in the textbooks we used when we try to keep up with Fama. They were in the textbooks Fama used when he tried to keep up with Frank Night, etcetera, etcetera, etcetera. What textbook are we using right now? Yeah, So it's really hard to have a model of all possible situations, and you have to kind of step back and and figure, you know, the basics, what what we really know about this?

And one thing that we do know is that we're borrowing a huge amount of money from the future um to kind of get through this, and we need to realize that we need to pay that back, and we pay it back either through taxes or inflation. And also we are creating a lot of money. The Fed's balance sheet has exploded and s in the global financial crisis, something similar to happen and there was no inflation. Beware

of extrapolating from one observation. So this combination of increasing deadedness UH and the exploding balance sheet, to me, the major risk for investors is unexpected inflation in the future. Hey, Cam, thanks so much for joining us. We really appreciate a camp Harvey, Professor of Finance at the Fuqual School of Business at Duke University. Thanks for listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast. Subscribe and listen to interviews on Apple Podcasts, SoundCloud,

or whichever podcast platform you prefer. I'm on Twitter at Tom Keane before the podcast. You can always catch us worldwide. I'm Bloomberg Radio