Surveillance: Belarus Strikes With Bolton

I guess you know. I sold twelve copies, Abassador Bolton, but I think you did out of the box seven eighty thousand copies of your book. Did that statistics surprise you? Yeah, I thank you very much. I was surprised at it. But but I think you know, this is a year when trumps a lot is needs book sold even more. Bob Woodward has a book coming out in September, and there have been plenty war besides, so there's there's obviously a big demand. But it was an enormous number. I

was very very happy with it, that's for sure. In your book, I want to get to Belarus in a moment, which is the topic of the hand. But there is and the reason you came on with us today the legacy of Brent Scolcroft. I had a chance to interview him a few times. What a gentleman, what grace your study of that great moment where Baker and Skocroft assisted President Bush and getting to the end of the Cold War. What did the late General Skulcroft accomplished? Well, he was

an amazing figure. And I knew him during the Bush forty one administration. I didn't didn't know him during the Nixon and uh and Ford administrations. But but he was really a dominant figure in policy, uh you know, beginning with Saddam Hussein's invasion of Kuwait in and liberation of Kuwait, the breakup of Yugoslavia, the breakup of the Soviet Union, the collapse of the Warsaw Pack, the end of the Cold War. I mean, it was it was busy back in those days. And uh, you know, he was a

very level headed guy. And I think obviously somebody that George H. W. Bush knew very well, which is why he made him National Security Advisor. Are you confident that either party can get back to the grace of Brent Scocroft after a given length of a Trump era. Well, I think it's gets harder and harder to do, which is one reason why, you know, for the first time in my adult political life, I'm not going to vote for the Republican nominee for president. I think we can

correct what's happened after one Trump term. I'm very worried that two it might might not be possible to correct. He's not the only cause of the lack of civility, although he's made almost every aspect of it wars and uh. I just don't even know how how Brent Scocroft would react to the way it is today. Does Joe Biden need to do to make it a one term Trump Well,

I think he. You know, I'm not going to vote for Biden either, as I think I think we may have discussed before, but I think I think if he uh in the remaining days of the campaign project projects even handedness, steadiness, UH, courtesy, a sense of humor, a lack of indictedness, you know, being a normal guy, would would go a long way. I really do think people crave that, and I believe that even if many Republicans with whom I've spoken who will vote for Trump because

they fear the left wing of the Democratic Party. Uh, it's they're they're not happy about that either. And I think many of those people might yet vote for Biden if he if he simply says, you're my ideas, but I'm gonna I'm gonna pursue them in in what we used to think of as a as a more civil fashion. So, ambassador, give us just your sense of kind of where the

whole feeling of internationalism is. It served the United States so well post World War Two in terms of defeating, um, you know, winning the Cold War, but internationalism seems to really have taken a back seat in the Trump administration, whether it's NATO or the Transpacific Partnership or other just partnerships around the world. What's your sense of where internationalism is right now? Well, I think Trump is an anomaly

even within the Republican Party. And one of the reasons I'm confident the damage he's done can be corrected is that there is no Trump is um. There is no Trump doctrine, there is no Trump philosophy, UM. And I think that's one of the reasons why why it's so perilous to have somebody like him in the White House, but it also means it's it's easier to to police bafter there's just one idiosyncratic response after another. I would say, in fact that even under Obama there there was a

fair amount of isolationism. I think Obama was was overfocused on domestic issues, and I think UH in too many cases as his idea of foreign policy was to leave it to the United Nations to engage in multilateral diplomacy for the sake of it. So I think America has got to pursue its interest. I think the right way to look at it, to summarize it very quickly, is in a Reaganesque kind of way of peace through strength.

Where do you think the biggest security issue is for the United States right now as we kind of exit well, I think existentially China is the main threat we face throughout the twenty first century. I think Russia is also a strategic problem because of its nuclear capabilities. I think the immediate problems remain the threat of the proliferation of nuclear chemical and as we now understand better than ever before, biological weapons, UH and international terrorism. These are problems we've

had now for twenty years. They've changed their manifestations but they remain threats to the United States, and I think the people ought to understand that as they as they look at this presidential race and the race is for Senate. Now is just your US worldwide? John Bolton with us the room where it happened to White House Memoir, his book. Uh. He joined us a few weeks ago, where thrilled he could come back and visit in remembrance of Brent Skullcroft.

The script changes, Ambassador, and it changes to Belarus. You did what you do, which is you showed the flag, you attended. It makes that horrific Holocaust Memora one of the most emotional uh that's out there. And then you met with the leadership of Belarus. Folks. This is to get the map out. You go to Berlin, you go east to Warsaw, you bend to the north a little bit, and you go across a piece of land on the road to Moscow. Ambassador Bolton, how important is that piece

of land of the United States this morning? Well, it's extremely important. I went to Belarus. I was the highest ranking American to go there when I went in August of last year, I think in about eight years. And I did it not because I loved Lukashenko, the president and authoritarian figure there, but because I didn't want to see Belarus reabsorbed by Russia into a into a latter day Soviet Union. Now we've seen this amazing election process

there that people are out in the streets. It looks so much like what happened in Eastern and Central Europe and the former Soviet Union when the Iron Curtain fell, uh some years back, and it's I think it's critical, uh that we do what we can to make sure

the Russians don't intervene. You know, when I when I went on to Warsaw for the for the anniversary of the Nazi invasion, the eight anniversary, the polls and the Ukrainians, and I give them both credit, arranged a four way meeting of the national security advisers of their two countries, the US and Belarus. First time that ever happened. That's

how important Belarus is, the Poland in Ukraine. And I think therefore to us, well, this is so important is it's buttressed up as a buffer almost between Russia and a NATO that expanded to the east to Poland and And how do we actually project this in the coming days? What would you advise Secretary POMPEII or even the President in discourse, in body language, to make clear to Mr Putin that this is not some of the sad stories

that we've seen over the decades. Well, I think, uh, we've done actually some good things with respect to Poland to strengthen our defense cooperation. I think we could do more with Ukraine. It's not a NATO member, But when George W. Bush was president, he tried to make that happen. The Europeans objected. I think the dilemma right now with belaruss is I think we want to support the emerging view that we see it in the streets. The people

aren't asking for anything extraordinary. They just want to be able to elect their own president. We ought to encourage that, but in a way that makes sure that Lukashenko does not continue to ask Putin to step in, especially with military force. So it's a delicate moment. I think a strong statement to Putin it can be done in private, if that's the way to do it. That he needs to stay out of Belarus is very very important. Ambassador.

That goes to I guess the bigger picture is give us your sense of what our position is visa the Russia here and how perhaps uh our position should evolve, you know, over the next several years as it relates to Russia. Well, you know it's uh. What Putin is doing is playing a wee hand, very very well in trying to re extend Moscow's influence in the territory of the former Soviet Union, Eastern Europe, the Middle East and elsewhere.

And while we've done a number of things in the past three and a half years to push back on that, we have not done nearly enough, not not the least of which is the continuing concern about Russian interference in our elections, where we've also taken steps not not the Trump accepted them easily. He accepted them, kind of complaining all the way. But I think Putin is a classic case of an authoritarian leader who pushes until you push

back at him, and then he'll withdraw. So I think, UH, just a stronger indication of how much we prize our own elections and UH and or will take steps against foreign interference. And likewise, in Belarus, I was hoping for a Susan Rice vice presidential pick because Ambassador Bolton that would have been a good theme to speak to you.

We don't have that, we have Senator Harris instead. But you think of a Biden foreign policy and there's got to be a place there for Ambassador Rice to participate clearly with her service to the cause over the last number of weeks, Susan Rice is a Secretary of State, would be radically different than Secretary of State Pompeille. What kind of secretary of state would she be? Well, looking at her record, I think she'd try and reverse a lot of what I think the Trump administration did a

cop push in the Middle East. I think her positions have been strongly anti Israel over the years. I think she clearly wants to revive the Iran Nuclear Agreement, which was a disaster in TIF hadn't gotten any better with age. And if I were Israel, I'd i'd be very worried. Now you know this is uh. This is going to be a problem for Biden, I think because I don't believe those are his views. Uh. And and I think there's gonna be if he prevails and becomes president. I

think Susan will become secretary of State. You know, I always root for former national security advisors to move up in the world. But uh, but I think, uh, I think there's enormous tension within the Democratic Party. You know, the press likes to talk about divisions in the Republican Party on national security issues. Within the Democratic side, I think they've got big problems and I think Biden, Biden is gonna have some hard choices to make. Ambassadors, Thank

you so much for joining us. A memory of Brent Scullcroft today, John Bolton with a book out that's done uh pretty well at the stands here the room where it happened, John Bolton, thank you so much. Right now, we turned to the markets and there was some really good research. You know, so Michael Schoel, he's a market field Asset Management, their chief executive officer and someone who

looks across asset as well. Michael, thank you so much for looking at this recovery from Marching the equity markets as compared to that August, the two augusts where we are right now, and also even back to December of night seven. Was it a correction? Was it a bear market? What was it? We just lived through. I believe it was a collection in the bull market we started in two thousand and nine. I mean, you know that there's certainly at the mark slow. You could make an argument

of that bullmarket died on it's eleventh anniversary, UM. But you know, we we came out of it um extremely quickly, and we came out of it with with very similar leadership. You know, technology was clear leadership going into it, technologies clear leadership coming out of it. So you know, certainly

parts of the of the US equity market, UM. You know, I think we're you know, went into a secular bear market at that point in time, but it's really COVID related equities which which went from ball to bear, and you know, the bulk of the equity market is in bold and in fact, interestingly, some of the cyclical stuff which has really been uninteresting for you know several years, has started to look very interesting again. We've seen that in the railroads and of course small caps doing better

as well. Michael, I look at this equity market and I look at the commitment of people to it, and what we hear conversation after conversation is it's really not an enthusiastic market. That there's too many walls that worry out there. Do you agree with that assessment? I mean, certainly if you you know, I think sentiment measures are

very poor given where the equity market is. We've seen worse sentiments measures over the years, but I don't think we've seen sentiment this with the equity market this VI high. Having said that, you know, I think because passive investment has been so important for the last few few years, I think people are committed, even if they're reluctantly committed. Michael, good morning. Is Anna here do we learn anything if

we look back at LTCM and the like. Do we learn anything from these previous crises about about the way this then goes because you've drawn this parallel. Yes, I mean I think that the you know, central banks react um and you you have a sort of general liquidation which you come out the other side of and you tend you know, And certainly in the late eighties and late nineties, in both cases you had a narrowing of leadership and in the end a sort of excessive commitment

of capital to what people thought worked. So in the late eighties it was all about Japan and markets like Taiwan um you know, that made highs that in Japan's case haven't been approached ever since. Taiwan. We finally made made that new higher couple of months, a couple of weeks ago. Um, you know, and of course in the late ninety nineties, I'm sure everybody knows, you know, technology came out and completely dominated you know, that ball market. Tech had done well, but it wasn't the only place

where people wanted to be. So you know, my feeling is that you do see now again and knowing of leadership as an excessive commitment of capital to portions of technology, um, and perhaps a couple of other sectors you know, strangely enough managed to jump on the bandwagon as I think. You know, I'm quite bullish about precious metals. I think they have the ability to to get on board, or certainly are on board, and I actually think we're going

to see a boardening. Um. You know. I think the physical global economy is going to do much much better than the global services economy. And I think that's you're starting to see about play out in equity market and why and why is that supportive to precious metals then, because of course gold has gone a long way up, Michael, because of fears about the global economy. But you're talking about what you're talking about precious metals that are useful

in industrial processes. Is that that the distinction you're making? No, No, I think I think precious medals are very sensitive to global equidity, and central banks are going to be in full emergency mode for the foreseeable future. UM. And even if we do get pickups and things like inflation and and good data coming out of it, they say, the physical economy, I think is gonna look is gonna look okay.

There's going to be so much COVID related weakness in the in the service economy, and prevailing unemployment rates are going to be so much higher than they were eight, nine, ten months ago that you know, I think central banks are going to you know you are going to be doing more of what they're doing today. And that's that's really quite positive. And precious metals, I think that's not

that contentious. I think where I probably am more contentious as I think that the the industrial the industrial side of the commodity markets look like they can get going here um and that that I'd say, any kind of acceleration in the physical portion of the of the global economy, whether it's the US housing market or the Chinese hearth housing market or Chinese infrastructure spending. You know, I think that that that you're going to see a you know,

you're going to see some of the industrial medals. Um. You know, really hitch a right on the very narrow pressures medals rally that we've had so far. Michael, sure, do you assume the industrial recovery that you're suggesting is a recovery of concentration where we're going to see a lot of them and a activity transactions and combinations because people are desperate to find revenue growth. Um. I mean,

I think you might see some of it. But I also think that that actually, as they say, physical activity is going to be okay, and it's going to be okay partly because of the disruptions of COVID. So we see it already, for instance, in the US housing market, anything housing related is starting to accelerate. Even if people aren't buying new homes, they're renovating the you know, they're innovating their existing homes. Um. And I think this is this is going to be boreder than just than just

a U S story. So they say it's very easy to see the destructive impact of COVID. UM it's very obvious, it's very real, but there has been a constructive impacts of COVID as well. In other words, it's four people to go out and spend on things that they hadn't necessarily expected to haven't necessarily expected to spend on. That's very, very true. Michael schul, thank you so much for joining us today with market Field Asset Management. Right now, Leslie

Benjamurry joins. She's a chadow mouse in London, but she is expert on pass blue Ribbon in Milwaukee, and we're thrilled that she could join us right now. What a strange convention? Dr Vinjamurray, I guess it's a non convention, but it's not. I haven't ansked this question this morning, so let me go to you, with all your study of American politics. If it's not Chicago or Harry Truman, what is Biden gonna look like? Well, you know, I have to say, Tom, I think it's it's actually a

very exciting convention. It's specifically because we kind of don't know what to expect. We've always known for the you know, the last long period, who's going to be the candidate coming out of any convention. But this is gonna look very, very different. And I think, you know, the lineup is is interesting. I think the goal, of course, is to get voters excited about this ticket, the Biden Harris ticket, rather than just being driven by you know, voting against

the sitting president. Um. But the lineup, you know, from Michelle Obama, Bernie Sanders, John Kasik, Andrew Cuomo, I mean you can see that the drive is really too to unite the party, to bring in the young and progressive voters. Also to create an opening for those who from the Republican Party who might want to vote Democrats. So it's it's going to be a very interesting few days, even if not surprising. This came up this weekend, and you know,

within my amateur take Leslie Benjerbury, it's simple. They have to get out the vote. How do they get the youth of America, many are so upset with President Trump. How do they get them to actually show up and vote? You know, I think there's um, there is a drive. Obviously, this is a real concern um that the young people have. As we know from the data, they've been hit hardest

by unemployment, they've been hit hardest by school closures. My online education, by the uncertainty that's facing them in September, they look to go back to campus or not. So I think that there is a lot of any energy there and it really is about inspiring them to turn up and to put that vote forward. Um uh. You know, President Trump is trying with his play to a deferring

student interest race on student loans UM. But the Democrats have this challenge and that is really going to be what a lot of the next four nights are about. And I think that's why we see Bernie Sanders having a very important role at this convention, because of course he's been very much liked by a lot of young voters um and and he's not the only one. So I think that that is a real and very generous concern. But remember that young voters don't face the health constraint, right,

they don't. They aren't as worried about being hit by the actual virus UM what there are concerned. They don't feel them to the same degree. So they're more likely in that sense if they could be inspired to actually

turn out and take the risk of voting. Yeah. I mean some minority groups might feel more vulnerable, and perhaps that might be an issue for the Democrats, Leslie, good to speak to you today, just crossing the Bloomberger and mixed signals from the President this morning in terms of his mood towards China, as Tom says, praising what they're doing on agricultural products, but then going so far as

to say that Quawei spies on the United States. He also made the points over the weekend that the Democrats haven't said much about China. Will they be pushed by the d NDC to comment on China or are they trying to stay away from that subject. I mean, I think right now, so much of the focus was going to be on what is happening at home in America. It's about the concerns over trying to obstruct the actual voting, about the postal service, it's about the pandemic, it's about

an employment. But China, of course, is the ongoing foreign policy concern for the United States. The Democrats won't be seen to look um, the weak or soft on China. I think they will rise to that challenge. But I think really the focus is going to be primarily on the domestic agenda, Leslie, You know, again, China seems to be the only bipartisan issue that's out there as well. Will Abiden policy be that different from a Trump policy, not in discourse, not in heat, but in final outcome

with China? You know, I think one of the key differences is that a Biden administration, as we know, is going to turn up in Europe and and ask the Europeans to line up to ask the UK, which is an easier ask right now because you get moving its position, um, But to look across Europe and to say, let's take a unified approach towards negotiate playing a tough card with China on its economic agenda, um, but I think it will dial down some of the focus on tariffs among

the terra forms and actually look at a much broader set of questions that are concerns, you know, across both sides of the but that haven't really been the focus of the Trump administration's de pressure on China. Dr Vinjamurry, thank you so much, greatly appreciated, leslie. Vinjamurray is with Chatham House right now in the pandemic and this is wonderful because we get away from virology and epidemiology over

to the idea of policy. Is she's at the Duke Margolius Center for Health Policy, and their deputy director, Marta Volshinska, joins us this morning. Martha, it's a silly question, and I don't mean to be smart about it, but what's changed in the last six weeks in our knowledge of where we're going? What's the new of where we're going in is pandemic. Well, for one, we have had rapid,

rapid increase in the number of cases. Really, when we were earlier in the summer, I don't think anybody anticipated the amount of spread that might occur between now and before school we're going schools were going to open. I think when we were thinking back early in the summer, we really did think that we might be able to reopen schools because we did think that there's going to be some control over this epidemic. But in the meantime we have had just rampant spread um in in this country.

If you look at Europe, I believe in Great Britain um they have about maybe a couple of days ago, thirteen million cases uh for thirteen cases per million. The United States right now has about a hundred and sixty cases per million, and that's on on across the country, and some states have much much more. So we've we've sort of really started to lose control of the situation, which is um, really dis concerning. Well, that's where we

wanted to go, Marta. What I noticed here, and I guess it's part of the generation, is I measure the Vietnam's and we're coming up on three Vietnam's of death since I guess March, maybe February as well. That's an extraordinary scope and scale. And I say this with immense respect for the sacrifice in Vietnam and what professionals are doing. Now, do you just extrapolate out that this nation at some

point we'll have four Vietnams of death? I mean, in many ways, we probably might already have more, because it's difficult to measure excess deaths. The deaths that we have are actually confirmed cases, um, and so there might have been many more excess that's are significantly higher um. And we're not done with this. I mean, we still have a long way to go, and we have winter coming up, UM, and that's this is going to We're gonna lose a lot of America lies unfortunately in this pandemic, and in

the meantime, good Morning team. Answer. In the meantime, we hope for a vaccine. We we watch closely all the headlines around vaccines from wherever they come in various parts of the world. Is there any way to know how long protection from a vaccine will last other than just allowing a vaccine to run its course? Is there any way to answer that question? And unless we just tested and wait until we tested and wait, that's how you

answer the question. So when we do see a vaccine available, we will know how much of an immune response it will generate initially, but we're not going to know really how long the protection lasts. That will have to continue to be studied. If we want to have a casine really soon, we're going to have partially answers and to how effective it is. We will know that it can protect you in the short term, but we don't know

for how long. And frankly, I mean the rollout strategy be for I was just gonna ask you about the rollout strategy when we get a vaccine. I know not there yet, but if we do, when we do, let's be hopeful. What should the rollout strategy be? Should it focus very much on healthcare workers to start with what is the best way to provide the most protection and

to stop the transmission to kind of cut that path. Yes, so you will need to identify the highest risk populations and it might include healthcare workers, especially healthcare workers with underlying conditions or for them that are pregnant, health care workers who are also at high risk, and and other popular populations that are at high risk, and they will be the priority. And it really will be necessary because to produce the number of doses of the vaccine that

we will need is just really tremendous. So you and I are likely not going to be vaccinated until the spring, perhap summer, but we're hoping that the vaccine will be available this winter and we will start being to be able to vaccinate high risk, high priority individuals. Then, Dr thank you so much, greatly appreciate it. With Duke Martinous center there on health policy this morning. Thanks for listening

to the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast. Subscribe and listen to interviews on Apple Podcasts, SoundCloud, or whichever podcast platform you prefer. I'm on Twitter at Tom Keene Before the podcast, you can always catch us worldwide. I'm Bloomberg Radio