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Surveillance: Beginning to See Slowdown in Banking, Hintz Says

Oct 14, 201638 min
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Episode description

Brad Hintz, adjunct professor of finance at New York University, says this was a good summer for fixed income for the banks. Dan Yergin, vice chairman of IHS, says the U.S. needs higher economic growth and more entrepreneurial energy. James Stavridis, dean of The Fletcher School of Tufts University, says he expects positive growth numbers in Greece next year. Erik Oja, banking analyst at CFRA Research, says this quarter's bank earnings are similar to last quarter, with the four major banks all beating on top-line and bottom-line expectations.

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Transcript

Speaker 1

Who you put your trust in matters. Investors have put their trust in independent registered investment advisors to the tune of four trillion dollars. Why learn more and find your independent advisor dot com. Welcome to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Tom Keene with David Gura. Daily we bring you insight from the best in economics, finance, investment, and international relations. Find Bloomberg Surveillance on iTunes, SoundCloud, Bloomberg dot com, and

of course on the Bloomberg. A bevy of banking news this week a bebby. We've got the change in leadership at Wells Fargo of course announced yesterday, Deutsche Banks drama, the wrangling over its legal situation with the Department of Justice continuing, and then of course burnings out This morning, Tom from three the big banks, including Wells. We'll hear from City Group coming up at JP Morgan releasing its quarters report just minutes ago, the biggest US bank. Let

me get that stuck up here right now. We had it before, a little bit of a lift, but uh, Christine, areper quite impressive. I was blown away by the thirteen percent r OE return on inequity. We'll have some chat on that here with Mr Hints. Brad Hints is at New York University of course years covering the banking and financial industry with Sanford Bernstein Professor n's good morning, Hi, how are you doing well? I think I'm good. I don't know how. Jamie Diamond's doing well here on ACCLAIM

press conference and UH analyst calls as well. How badly does Mr Diamond and other bankers need a steeper yield curve? Well, it sounds h it sounds a couple of problems, right, It's not just steepness. If you notice the you'ld curve actually moved up, so it's wait, it actually went up across the entire curve. Um. But steepness will help them on their investment portfolio. Right now. You know I have this,

I've got an investment portfolio. It's rolling off. I've got yield on that and port saying as it rolls off, my net interest gets squeezed. If if rates are low and the yield curve is is low and flat, as it starts to steepen, that solves one of the net interest margin problems. Of course, as the front end moves up, that helps my That helps my pricing in terms of loans, so that also helps me. So you know, the you know, the market has been focusing on the poor banks, you know,

with their interest margins getting squeezed. This you know, if the if the moves are the right way, you know, it will take a lot of that pressure off them. They bring in a dollar, they bring in thirty five cents in operating income, which generates twenty two cents in net income. I would suggest, professor hints that borders on cartel return. That's why are the banks so beleaguered If I'm making twenty two it's on the dollar down at

the bottom bottom bottom line. Well, it's a lot better than it, uh that that than we've seen in the in the past. And uh and and you know the banks have been struggling to beat their cost of capital. Uh you know the you know, with with luck, you know, this will be a somewhat better uh time for the for them going forward if rates continue to move in

their direction. You know, it's you know, the third quarters are always you know, seasonally slower because because the markets tend to slow down in the summertime, right, So when you sort of look on quarter to quarter comparisons, at least on the investment banking site. Look a little bit funny, right, And and David, I've got to compare and contrast her Bank of America operating income is twenty seven, maybe twenty nine cents on the dollar and JP Morgan is thirty

five or thirty six. That's that's in the game of finance. That's a big disparity in terms of profitability. Pulling back your fixed income trading at CHAP year over year four point three billion dollars, about a billion more than one analysts were expecting. Professor put that in some broader context for us. You're going into earnings today, a lot of people saying this is what to look for, look for

the fixed income currencies and commodities. Sure, and you know what we saw over the summer was, you know, there's been you know that we've had very good credit uh in the credit markets, good volumes in there, and we've we've also had some positive movements in terms of credit spreads coming in the you know, Brexit um and you know caused a lot of volatilities. That's going to help in the gubbies and the sovereign side, and also going to pick it up in foreign exchange, So you know

that's going to help the summer. So when you look at it, you know, last summer versus this summer, the year over a year, it's gonna look pretty good. When you start looking at some of the bank's quarter over quarter, you're not going to see the same thing, but you're going to have to recognize that. You know, summer is always slowed. This was a good summer for fixed income, and you know that's going to be a story that

we're going to hear from these guys. The other issue you're going to hear is is investment banking right, and investment banking tends to be you know this this was we're beginning to see a slowdown and investment banking. We're talking with Axel Murk, the the co found of course of Merk Investments. We were talking about money market fund regulations that go into effect today. What effect do you think that's going to have here on on banks like

JP Morgan um not Uh, everyone has seen that coming. Um. So you know, we've seen an adjustment in terms of issuance of commercial paper and that's actually affecting a lot in terms of the treasurers who who do financing. The banks are going to have have adjusted to that, and so you're going to see you know, where you do your financing, the tenor that you do for your financing. Um, it's it's not a surprise. I think most of the CFOs and treasures in America are are sort of well

aware on this one. The concerns about credit persist here. On previous conference calls a lot of concerning consternation about energy credit in particular. Looking at the report that we got today, how much concern persists when it comes to credit and energy. Um, Well, we've seen the the the the oil prices recover. That doesn't solve credit problems in terms of troubled companies. It takes a while for these

things to work their way through. So it's going to be a continuous It'll be people will ask questions, right, they'll they'll push on it. But the the the the immediacy is now gone. Right. The people we we we know there was a fire there, we're watching it. Right. It was when we saw smoke that the that the

equity analysts began to get get very troubled. I want to go through four mumbo jumbo ideas we can do that with professor hints, I'm in the back of the class running a sea and Professor I got to get to a B plus fast fortress principles Tan your book fifty one three cents up eight percent, way out front of nominal GDP basil three tier one capital h billion eleven point nine firm s l R. I have no idea what that is, folks. It's a camera six point six and I love this one, Brad h q l

A five thirty nine billion. All of this is footnoted and Joey Evangelista saving my butt today. Is this a fortress or is that just a marketing campaign? No, it's a fortress um the JPM and and you can you can say, you know most of the banks at this point and fortress balance sheets and you know, weaken with luck. If you can take this forward, the risk of the bank drops and you end up seeing the beta's going down.

That hasn't happened, right, And because if you want the betas to go down, that's going to reduce the cost of capital. And these, you know, the somewhat anebic roes that you've seen from the banks may actually end up if they stay. If you know you'll you'll be beating your cost of capital. We're not there yet. There's still a lot of uncertainty on the banking side, but the credit risk to the banks has has gone down. Right there, They're sitting there with a lot of liquidity on their

balance sheet. They're sitting with great capital positions. You know that that means that all of us can sleep well at night and the banking systems stable. Now, whether you want to invest in them, that's a different question. And Brad hints with us. Let's finish up here in JP Morgan and get Professor Hanson with his day. Brad and tell me about retail banking. Mr Diamond's killing it clearly within retail banking and those others doing it well and

some better, some worse. David and I walked by David in Brooklyn. I'm in New York in excuse me, in Manhattan? And h did I say that? In Manhattan? When did the branches start closing down? Um, you've got you've got some some generational issues there, Tom right, which is uh, you know, I don't believe my twenty six year old son has ever visited a branch. He does everything electronically off of his cell phone. On the other hand, you know, yeah, I go over to my my little branch in New Vernon,

New Jersey, and I know the people over there. So you know, there's the who the branch system has to be resized. JPM certainly is the dominant player in UH in New York City. UM. But you know, you you don't look only at the twenty year olds, right, and you recognize that the elder the elderly have all the wealth management. So keeping a few of those branches probably a good idea is the is the Boston merger thon is just one example, the merger thon of twenty or

thirty years ago? Did that work out? What's for the for the banks as they rolled themselves? You remember names like n c NB, right, uh, I remember the Second National Bank of the United States. Um. Not as well as as people have had had hoped, but they did work for some. And you know, and we do know that their scale economics that exist in in in commercial banking, we still as the United States, we still have a

very very fragmented banking system. Unfortunately, the large banks can't get larger, right, that's you know, the too large to fail problem, And so We're going to see a roll up of this. It's not going to happen right away, but it is. We're not seeing new banks being made right so the you know, they looking forward. You know, if you look, if you give a five year time horizon, you'd say, you know that the banking world will consider

to consolidate. But it's going to consolidate below the large ones, right, it will consolidate at that next tier. Total credit card loans JP Morgan hundred and thirty three billion dollars. A few weeks back, our colleague Sam Grosbard wrote a piece for Bloomberg Business Week about the Chase Sapphire Reserve card. Demand incredibly high for this card, some that has a special plunk factor. They actually put metal in the middle of it to give it a special field of It

is a wildly popular card. There is this competition Brad between City and JP Morgan when it comes to credit cards in the credit card space. How important is that to this bank going forward? Um very important to the City. Remember you know the City just did the Costco deal and that's that that's very very good for them. Credit

cards are important for all of these banks. It's a major source of profitability, tough business right and and but it's it remains of one of the few areas where you can get very nice that interest margin off of a off of a portfolio. It's it's a core business of marketing, you know. And I think, JPM we can, you know, we can. We can say they've done it.

They've done a great job with the Sapphire card. City's going on, you know, somewhat different idea which says we're gonna we're gonna tie in with with a costco, a retailer and pick up a portfolio that way. It's Brad has the scale for us is having you, and thank you so much, greatly appreciate it. Neil Duddy asked me this morning how do you do this? And then he said, why do you do this? This is why I do it. Daniel, you're gonna walked in the studio this morning and you

think we'd speak with dr You're going about oil. One of his cottage industries is to be one of our great economic historians. The beginning of his classic Commanding Heights on an England Flat on its Back is one of the great moments in modern economic literature. And we're thrilled the doctor Organ joins us UM. This morning, Martin Wilf writes it up Dan in the Ft today about this

failure of May to be like Thatcher. You are truly one of the experts on this beverage of the London School of Economics did a welfare study for England on want disease, ignorant squalor in idleness, and out of that came the welfare state of England. The Thatcher tore asunder, what is Prime Minister May trying to do now with the United Kingdom fled on its back. Of course, Uh, Thatcher tried to open the economy, make it competitive, but the welfare state, certainly UH continues and UH continues to

be a very big part of the economy. So it hasn't gone away. I think Uh. Theresa May has a big problem, which is to define what is Britain going to be now? Now it's not going to be part of the EU. Is it gonna be little England or is it gonna be global England and some of it? And she's responding to the same pressures that you see across much of the industrial world. Of course, here in the United States is very vaccine and challenging question of

immigration and all the emotions around it. I would suggest that Baroness Thatcher with Keith Joseph had a more organized, cohesive domestic politics to apply and to do. And that's that's absolutely run absolutely, you know, that's absolutely right, Tom, because they had had several years to think this through, to work at she's improvising, she's inherited this hand now and basically has uh that the rules of the road just are not clear. So there's been no time to

think it out. So, as Martin Wolf points out, a lot of a rhetoric now is pulled from other places, even he suggests from Elizabeth Warren, just because of time here. Let's David Girl, have you switch over and talk about our American politics and the time that we've got with Dr Jurgen. Yeah. I mean, it's been phenomenal to to watch the last week on Old, the reporting in the New York Times, the story after story seeming to roll out here about Donald Trump, this campaign going off the

rails more perhaps than it than it had been. You know, we were we were speaking with San Colindar yesterday about the prospects for congressional action for something happening in Washington next year. He is, let's say, pessimistic on the subject. When do we return to a place where there is

governance happening in Washington? Again? Dr Yurgan, the question will we return to Well, I think that people point out that when Hillary Clinton was a Senator, she worked across the aisles and UH would be much you know, works with people. And of course, right almost from the beginning, there was this gulf between UH, the administration and UH

and Congress. We saw it most One example that we saw just very recently was on this bill that lifted sovereign immunity UH towards Saudi Arabia and just a lack of communication. The day before the vote, the President sent to letters the results would be devastating for the United States, for our military personnel or diplomatic personnel. But there was no UH. There was no traction UH until the very

last moment. I'm glad that you brought that up, that we can get into oil a little bit here, Tom, I I wonder what we've heard from the audies since that legislation was passed, Since that veto by President Obama was was overwritten. Of course, there were the warning warning signs beforehand from the Saudis that if this were to happen, they would sell off treasuries and and dead. What reaction have we seen and moving to oil here a bit? You know, what is that? What does that due to

the region having this this new lawn. Plus I think it raises questions whether the US government is going to get sued from by you know, drone strikes things like that. I mean, that's the big concern. And so you saw twenty eight senators after the legislation was passed saying, you know, maybe we've got to look at some aspects of it. I think that this message from the Saudis was kind of shocked that that had passed. Uh. They have a

lot of other things on their agenda right now. Particularly, I mean, this is a cop in the country that just invested three and a half billion dollars in uber uh. So thinking through that. Uh And meanwhile, of course they're moving ahead with this huge vision twenty thirty to remake their economy and no longer be dependent on oil. Did you think at my script today you say vision thirty Daniel or Urgan three years ago, power in two thousand

and thirty. Of course, off your wonderful book the quest Where will this nation be in two thousand thirty our nation? Or saunding our nation? Um, that's what is that? That's fourteen years away. It's called three more Painful president. Well, it does raise the question of what a presidential election is going to be like in the future and what lessons are going to be taken away, uh from this

campaign in terms of organization. Uh, you know, this is what we're seeing now unfolding is hardly anything that would have been imagined a year ago. And of course when you travel in the rest of the world, people are kind have been shocked watching this presidential election, saying what you're going to tell us about how to run a democracy with your scope of economics and history. We have Michael Kayson on at Georgetown the other day and on

William Jennings. Bryan, do you look at this as a one off event or is there a permanence to what we've seen, the tumult that we've seen within the Republican Party. Well, I think that that. Obviously, they're very powerful forces that have come to the fore and these issues. I mean, what was the issue that really galvanized is immigration, even though apparently right now there is no net immigration coming from Mexico. Uh So I think these forces are there.

And the thing is, we do need higher economic growth. We do need inclusiveness and and more entrepreneurial energy in our society, not just in Silicon Valley. What a joyous, surprising Friday, Daniel. You're gonna can't say enough about as most recent effort, the Quest m It is a synthesis of all that he's done and moves forward on this nation and our energy. Mr. Y, we we we almost

were oil free. This we'll do that. Next to who you put your trust in matters, investors have put their trust in independent registered investment advisors to the tune of four trillion dollars. Why they see their role is to serve, not sell. That's why Charles Schwab is committed to the success of over seven thousand independent financial advisors who passionately dedicate themselves to helping people achieve their financial goals. Learn

more and find your independent advisor dot com. We need to go to Boston and Michael McKee at a very important summitt at Toughs University. Good morning, Michael, Good morning Tom. And the good news for you is the Boston Bruins opened the season with a six to three win. Brad Marshan scores two goals, gets three assists to open the season. That's your report from Boston that I knew you wanted

to have. Got that right. We're here with that from James from the it's our old friend, uh the Deed of the Fletcher School at Toughs University, and they are hosting a conference today on the future of Greece. It's Greece's turn, and we welcome the Admiral to the program. We came up for the for the conference because of course it's always great to talk to you about national

security issues and graces. It's been a financial crisis for the world, but you also look at it, and you told us this before that it is a major national security issue given its geographic location exactly. You know, we're talking sports a minute ago. Think about baseball, think about the hot corner, the third base. Greece is kind of

the hot corner for Europe. It's the closest to the batter in terms of offensive action, and so Greece is going to be the canary in the in the mind shaft in terms of refugees, terrorism, they're in a very precarious position, and we need to stand with Greece, and

that's part of what this conference is about. Like, one of the questions that people have is we went into the crisis in two thousand nine, and in two thousand and ten they started with rescue plans, and they're still not out of it and things still seem to be deteriorating. I know you've been meeting for a day already on this have you have you come to any conclusions as to why, Well, it is a conference about Greece, so

you'll allow me to reach into Greek mythology. Uh. One, it's like Sisyphus, you kind of roll the boulder up, you make progress, but it seems to kind of keep coming back down. And the other one less well known as Tantalus, who was tied to a tree, punished by the gods and dying of hunger and thirst, and the wind would glow apples almost within his reach, and the water would raise almost to his lips. So I think we've got a little bit of Sysiphus and a little

bit of Tantalus going on. But I was in Greece a week ago, and I think we are beginning to turn corner there. I think we are going to see positive growth numbers there next year. Stamp tiny but positive. Well. One of the things people worry about with Greece's geographic location is obviously the introduction of bad guys into the region. In the early days of the crisis, there was a lot of talk about bringing in loans from China, bringing

in loans from Russia. Never happened. Uh. What's the Greek feeling about the United States and about these other actors. They've never been a particularly great friend of the United States, but they haven't allied themselves with the other side either. Yeah. I think if you look at the long relationship of Greece with the United States, it's uh, it's overall pretty positive. And I'll stipulate I'm a Greek American, so I'm predisposed to think that way. But remember our values come from Greece.

We have a long history of supporting them in independence, We have a World War Two history with Greece. And to answer the question of how it is today, I'd say it's some mixed picture. There are a number of people in Race who would like to see close for alignment with Russia, for example, Mike, because of the Orthodox connections there. But I think overall, Grief stands with the West,

stands with NATO, and stands with the United States. Bon NATO is a big question of because you got Turkey right across the Bosporus there, which at one point was thought to be the next candidate to join the European Union, and now seems to be moving away. How do you assess what's going on with Turkey and the region. We have a president in Turkey, a president in Urdwan who is consolidating power as a chief executive. This coup has actually helped him because it's given him the opportunity to

purge numerous political and military opponents to his regime. Uh he himself is drawing closer to Russia. So I think Turkey is going to be a problematic ally, but I'm I'm confident over time we can keep Turkey in the Transatlantic orbit. And you're right to say we moved away from a spot in the European Union for Turkey. But I think over time you'll see them come back because the other options really aren't that good for them long term. They don't want to be aligned with Russia and it's

undoubtedly failing economy in the twenty first century. But they've been making awfully nice with Prutent lately. They have, and that's a function of of Urdwan's desire to appear very strong internally, his displeasure with the United States over our support for the Kurdish rebels in our retissans, in returning this Ghoulinist cleric who has taken refuge here in the United States, and or to one thinks you let the coup. Those are tactical challenges I think long term Turkey strategic

futures with Europe and with the United States. It'll play out that way, may take us a few years to get there. Let me ask you, as long as you brought up the Curds quickly, we got about a minute left here. Um, Iraq, where are we with that? This talk of the US arming the Curds that just brings in Turkey into it. Um. It seems like we're not any closer to any kind of solution there. It's a tough puzzle to put together. On Iraq. Were vastly better than we were a year and a half ago when

the Islamic State was on the gates of Baghdad. Now they're pushed back. We're going to take Mozel back in the next six months. I think the long term future for Iraq is a decentralized government. The currents are going to have to have a fair amount of authority, but I think Iraq holds together as a national entity. Well, the beats go on this morning. When it comes to banking.

We had JP Morgan first, followed by City and then well as I'm bringing Eric oj hes U S Banks analyst with cf R A joining us now and Eric, I wonder if you could just draw a line of distinction for US here. How this the third quarter seems to be shaping up compared to the second. What's changed here over the last quarter? Well, it's actually relatively similar

to the second quarter. Hall that in the second quarter, expectations were extremely low because of the losses that were recorded in the first quarter, and most of the US banks, certainly the largest ones, beat on top and bottom line. So what we're seeing this morning is the same thing. The four major banks that reported this morning have all beaten on top line and bottom line expectations, which were relatively low going into this quarter. What are we seeing

in terms of credit? I wonder when you look at these banks credit portfolios, are there points of any concern for you? When you look at say commercial lending or you look at student loans on the credit side of things, what do you most focused on are most worried about? Well, in credit, we're most focused on, as is everybody on consumer lending, particularly auto and credit cards. And there is

some slight deterioration, but we see trends as relatively stable. Uh. One data point is that JP Morgan Chase is building up its reserves for cards, but they say they're doing that because of growth, not deterioration. But our job as analysts dig into that a little bit. So credit quality peaked probably a couple of quarters ago. Eric, your job is to be stuck picker of the year in two thousand nine for Standard and Poors, which is a unique

skill set, folks, very different. There's a research of a company and their relative performance to a group, and then there's just card the cardinal thing of by hold cell how by e holdy celly is the bank group right now? Do you have a real vision where the bank group will be twelve months or thirty six months out? Well, we have by recommendations on all of the top US banks. We think they're slightly undervalued on a pe basis um relative of to where they've been in the past. We

think that they will continue to improve um. Loan growth is relatively strong, the returns of capital are improving. As long as the US economy slowly grows, I think that they can take global market here. Let me ask you my money question, which is, can you model the single digitness of their dividend growth? Are they going to be subpar? Midpar? Are they really gonna, you know, add a dividend growth above revenue growth above nominal GDP. I think that their

dividends will start to accelerate in growth. And one of the reasons is that the original cap that the Federal Reserve had, you know, its banks were really uh not supposed to pay out more than thirty of normalized EPs. And it looks like that HALP is starting to be relaxed, so perhaps they can go up to the fort range. So that should certainly help with dividend growth going forward. And yes, we see dividends growing faster than GDP. We had this fixed income trading slump went on for a while.

Now seems that we've come out of that come out of that loudly. It seems like when you look at JP Morgan especially here, do you think that's going to continue for some time? No? I think, um, from what I heard on the JPM conference called it is underway right now, is that Q four will moderate. So UH Q two and Q two, Q two and Q three were large out performances in terms of trading. Some of that was due to the Brexit volatility, and some of it was due just to what the results were a

year ago as a comparison. UH comparisons are easing, um, but results in trading were far better than expected. Do you have a single best buy right now? We have a strong by recommendation on the shares of City Group and that's based on Yeah. Do they just close the r o E gap? Is that what that's about? Yeah? I mean there are always so far below piers. It's around six percent, while JPM is is ten whilst fargoes

twelve percent. So we think they're closing the gap and that Um, it just takes many, many years to keep building the r o E. But at the legacy City Holdings assets wind down, we think the r o E growth will accelerate, David ga we need to bring the show to a screeching halt. Nine oh three Andy seconds. This morning a missile from the Secretary of Treasury to one d U S. Treasure Department, Office of Public Affair,

Immediate release. Do I understand that they've lifted the ban on Cuban cigars the ban on importation of Cuban origin merchandise as accompanied baggage for personal use? Only will you be able to smoke a Cuban cigars, but you can dip them in your Cuban wrong before you there you go. They have lifted the value limitation on alcohol and tobacco products. Persons subject to US jurisdiction will be further authorized to import Cuban origin merchandise acquired in third countries into the

US as a companied baggage. So yes, Tom, your Reid is correct. The cigars and rum, the individual can bring them back or can we send the surveillance Golf Street. I remember Bay of Pigs vaguely. I remember the silence in the house. I don't remember the details, but it's it's amazing to see this. This is from the Secretary of Treasury, Jacob J. Lou The Treasury Department has worked to bring down economic barries and areas such as travel,

trade and commerce. He goes on to saying, we hope there'll be an American bank on every quarter with the c f R A on banking, Eric, what does the opening of Cuba mean for our American international and frankly Florida regional banks? Have you thought about that? Yeah, I think that would probably be a relatively uh small benefit, but symbolic. Yeah, may perhaps symbolic, but uh, it's a small country, and uh maybe for yeah, like you said, for regional banks that are in the Florida, we're a

small country. Cubas a Swapan, Eric, there are five banks on every corner in New York City. When does the silliness end? Well, we have seen some rationalization taking place. Um. One of the most aggressive ones is JP Morgan Chase. They are closing a lot of the legacy branches that they have. I mean keep in mind that they're a combination of uh Chase, Manhattan Manufacturer's Hanover Chemical Bank one, so they can close a lot of legacy branches. And

I think that we're also seeing that from Toronto Dominion. Uh, they are closing a lot of the old commerce bank branches so UM, I think and also with fifth third UH they announced the closure of one branches. So I think that we have seen the high water mark in US bank branches. How about the transition to digital I'm looking at the Wells report out this morning. Customer visits with branch bankers fell in September compared with the previous month.

Looking at the number of people who opened consumer checking accounts that dropped UH and a note here in the Bloomberg News story, Wells did not give a cause for the declines. How are these big banks handling that transition to the digital space. Well, I think they're handling it extremely well. The larger banks have the resources to build up their digital presence. UH, pn C and t D have been leaders there, I think also JPM UM and in the in the longer run, that's a lot less

expensive in keeping open expensive branches and paying people. UM. They also have cut the number of people in each branch unless people are needed as technology improved. Do you perceive that a regional could do merger merger mergers and become a mega big bank like does PNC with operating income of five maybe six billion? Do they aspire to approach JP Morgan's thirty two billion of operating income. I don't think that they want to go up there um.

And that's simply because the liquidity and capital requirements will be so tremendous when they get up there. I mean, the fifth largest bank in the country is US bangcorps UM. Let's let's put it this way. PNC has assets of three hundred seventy billion dollars, which is well below the big four, which are around two trillions UM. And and that's simply a function of liquidity and the higher capital ratios that are demanded. Eric. Thank you so much, Erico.

I'm just brilliant today. Uh and on the banking business. Will have much more on this. City Group. City Group was his best. I didn't know this, David Garran, researching the important announcement from Treasury on trade with Cuba. President Kennedy's favorite cigar was the h Upman. This according to The Observer, UH the night before he signed the embargo in peace Sallenger to go out the acclaim, Pierre Salinger to go out and buy every box and Washington here.

Salinger was the first one on the beach of the baby picks to get the cigars get back before the brutal guy who's who's who's looking at the new Cuban cigars of two thousand and sixteen says they are so mild that you want them to age ten or years.

I don't know, you know that it's a bit, that's a big deal Fox, but everybody can say it's been a lifetime David of Cuba over there the White House issuing a statement on this as well, President Obama, who was in Havannah recently, saying these changes represented with the progress I saw first hand when I visited Havanna to personally extend a hand of friendship to the Cuban people. That quick flight over ninety miles of blue water belied the real barriers of the past that were crossed that day.

So yeah, some some real movement here. It's it's just it's like on a formal report and and and I can't concentrate. Thanks for listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast. Subscribe and listen to interviews on iTunes, SoundCloud, or whichever podcast platform you prefer. I'm out on Twitter at Tom Keene. David Gura is at David Gura. Before the podcast. You can always catch us worldwide. I'm Bloomberg Radio. Who you

put your trust in matters. Investors have put their trust in independent registered investment advisors to the tune of four trillion dollars. Why learn more and find your independent advisor dot com, m

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