Surveillance: Barclays' Rogoff on Fed Cuts

was lights out, I thought. And one of the reasons we had doctor posenon is doctor Ferman of Harvard, teacher of AC ten, which is the definitive economics course there at Harvard. Manki used to throw chalk at people on it. And the answer is that was on globalization, that was on all the dynamics that out there. And we've got a guy to start us off strong and as aar Lisa, why don't you bring in not Kenneth Rogoff, but Bradley Rogoff,

who you know. I can understand why people got the two of them confused in economics, but why do you bring in brad Rogueoff on this bond mess? He and Barclay's rot I have. Feldstein is my AC ten professor at Harvard. Actually, so I'm dating back before, but I wonder what Marty Feldstein would say of this crisis. He would say, we have to clear the market, clear out the losers, wouldn't I think that's probably about it. It's

probably about right. We're not doing that right now. What I could tell but Bred, how do you make sense right now? As the head of Fick Research over at Barclays, how do you understand whether the market is just simply wrong to price in both rate hikes and some sort of disinflation that continues. Yeah, I think, well, we don't

agree with that. I'll start with that. I think we expect, Yes, could there be rate hikes coming when you get to rate cuts coming in twenty twenty four, Sure, right, but we think there's gonna be one more hike this summer. And it is hard to marry you guys. We're just alluding to it where equities are which don't seem to go down, and when you look at what the markets

pricing in terms of eventual cuts later this year. Now, at least you were kind of alluding to some of the stuff around banks, and look, this is a banking crisis. But the reason, you know, if we're I think we're calling it that, I guess at this point. But the reason we got there is very different than a lot of other banking crises. It wasn't because of bad assets, right,

It was because of duration really more than anything. And I do think there's a little bit of a distinction between that and I guess if you had to choose your crisis, I probably rather have this one. But there's also a distinction between the idea of bank failures and the idea of credit materially constrained and more suddenly than it has been in the past. How do you draw that distinction in terms of how to price that into a market that's looking for either two thousand and eight

or all clear? See see that that is the difference, right is maybe right now we can say we're clear of the crisis that we went through, you know, especially the last couple of weeks, but it has consequences still, and those consequences don't have to be two thousand and eight. I think to your point, those consequences can be slower growth and whether we get to you're loding some forecasts of a modest recession in the back half of this

year or early next year. Some people have that in or just really low near zero growth, which is what we're kind of closer to. Those have a big impact and also probably aren't that consistent with where equities are today. Right. I had a guy just email in. He's watching the show on jet Blue Airlines. I think it's on Direct TV. Thank you for Direct TV and jet Blue for putting us on across the nation. But he's got a really important question, and that is, Okay, we had low rate

free lunch for decades and now we're back here. Is this rate regime behavior forward like what you and I studied, or is it something new, this new higher rate regime. Well I think that yeah, if we don't have to go back that far to have a rate regime like this, right, we can go back fifteen years a little bit more than fifteen years ago and have that the different friends, I think is that prior to that, we didn't have

the really low rate regime. So I don't think it's just the fact that we have this mud argue more normal as opposed to high rate regime right now. I think what it is is you had that period of such low rates, So then it leads to so many assets and fixed income specifically pricing at a substantial discount, and that leads to the disconnect that led to the

problems that we saw in banks. So I do think it's a low rate regime that's causing the problem as opposed to the current rate regime the whole financial system. And I'm going to go back to Chris Whalen's glorious one volume on the American financial system and crisis as well. So I got a guy on Jet Blow or whatever airline they're on, watching this show, and what it signals here, Bradley, is the fear that's out there. Should we fear this

new rate regime? As I said, I don't know that we need to fear the current rate regime, also because by having hyped the way the Fed has, they do have some room now to act really through non extraordinary policy have an impact if we get to a place where inflations come down a bit. Let's say, you know, later this year, early next year, and growth has come down.

So I think in that sense, you'd almost have more fear if this was happening and rates were at zero today, right, I think that could be agree with at least to me, this is the heart of the matter. And there's so many younger people who didn't study Martin Feldstine a million

years ago. Where can we celebrate that this is maybe normal with proper incentives of capital versus mister Rogoff's comment there on zero, Well, I would argue that it's really too soon to set to tell, and I think that to your point pride, and this, to me is really

the key point. It's one thing to have a normal rate of interest, it's another thing to do it after years and years of zero percent rates that inflated assets and caused leverage to build up at a rate that might be infeasible for companies based in a business model. So how do you discern what seems like something that gives you income versus something that will crimp companies, cause higher defaults, and create someone to charge a much higher

risk premium. It's very interesting because what do we all expect, And I'm sure you had a lot of people on this show say it, well, how are these FED hikes going to impact the economy? Where are we going to

see the problems? Well, the answer was going to be Hell, maybe it's going to be the consumer for example, Right, it's going to be higher levered assets and credit right the world that I spent a lot of my time, and it turns out it was the safest assets that led to the first part of it, right, And I think that's what you're getting to, Lisa. There will eventually be some impact right on those riskier assets things you know, you know, lower rated, high yel bonds and all of

those things. But just like twenty twenty is helpful in the sense of and I know it's hard to say this looking backwards, but there are companies that were higher levered that were problematic, they defaulted then, and not as much excess built in the system. So I think, just like that, having this little bit of a preview, I do think that even though we will see defaults come up and all of that stuff, I don't think it'll

be as extreme. So this, to me is one of the big questions, especially with the banking issues that we've seen. Is this perhaps froth that we've already seen pushed out of the system, or is there another shoe to drop? Where would you look for that other shoe to drop? Yeah, And I think, you know, it's a question of just you know, from how far up you're dropping that shoe, right, Like, so there will be eventual impact in terms of okay, if banks are lending last, that has to have an

impact on corporate America. I do think we come into this fundamentally in a pretty good spot, right, and so we don't expect the normal recession default rates or ten twelve percent that you've seen, right, We expected probably be really half that. However, there's other areas, right, you know, if you think about the increase in rates, commercial real estate is the one that's coming up quite frequently right

now and in the interview. Yeah, that's why I came into the studio, and that's why one where obviously with cap rates have to move when when rates moved, um and so I think there are a lot of other areas and that has an impact too because people hold that on balance sheet. We've got thirty seconds left, which is a perfect time to dive into this commercial real

estate challenged, right, Yeah, I think it is. You know, we're pretty focused on office um as being the area we're most concerned about, and you know, we think the peak to troff there could be up to Thank you so much, Bradley Rogue Offfice with Barclays. One of the things we missed here is a data check on Europe. It was quite a ten days for Europe and we're

thrilled to bring you this morning. Katrina Dudley, portfolio manager at Franklin Mutual Series, doesn't describe or true European portfolio expertise.

Are you optimistic about Europe, Miss Dudley, UM, I think that if we look at what happened last week, you know, Europe actually was kind of contained until the end of last week from the banking crisis has really started in the United States, and I think that that was a positive that towards the end of last week we saw what was happening in the US kind of move into the European markets, and we saw some downward pressure in

those European banking stocks. As I look at Europe, I think, however, that the structural drivers that we've been talking about for now a couple of months continue to underpin that market. So we can just continue to be optimistic. When we're optimistic, we have to mop up a Swiss banking regime. I thought over the weekend, particularly the FT had some nice articles showing the Swiss people rebelling against a Swiss bank

bailout of Credit Swiss as well. Does that carry over in the financial section in Europe to where there's a huge tension between people, governments and the banking industry. I think there's been a lot of tension in the European banking industry already. I think that we need to understand that the way that the U Zone it's construction constructed is it's a series of countries and each of those countries has a central bank that will support that in

country banking system. We saw that with Deutsche Bank. We've seen that support come out for Germany, for example. We've seen it as you described with Credit Swiss and with UBS and the Swiss National Bank stepping in as well. So you will see that on a country basis, and it's a real reflection of the fact that Europe is just a series of countries that have come together to

create the Eurozone, but those nationalistic interests still exist. There's a larger question here underpinning some of the banking stress. Are we at the end of red hiking cycles that have been the fastest on record. Katrina what's your view. I think that the FED is very data dependent, and they're also watching that PCE number that is coming out on Friday. I think that they'll be as glued to their Bloomberg screens as I am. They're going to be watching to see where there or not there is any

easy in inflation pressures. If there is, I think that they can just take a pause in that rate hiking cycle. But I have heard a lot of people thinking that we are going to have rate cuts towards the end of this year. We're not in that camp that we're expecting the FED to turn so quickly. We think that they're more likely to take a pause in terms of the rate hikes, and potentially, you know, there's been a lot of quantitative tightening in the market and we're starting

to see some of that ease. Could you know, if that's the case, how do you play it through a market that is priced in almost one hundred basis points of rate cuts by the beginning of next year. In terms of how we play it, we just think you need to take a step back, and I think that that's the benefit of being a long term investor, that ability to take a step back and have a look. I think that we were very concerned that the banking crisis and the increase in rates would really impact those

smaller midsized companies. And we've talked in the past about the industrial sector, and we talk about the three legs to that investment thesis. We look at the legislation that's positive and that's still in place. We look at some of those structural drivers electrification, for example, IoT is another. But the third leg was that supplier base that needed financing in order to expand. And we've actually seen customers step step into the place of the certainty that you

normally get from the financial sector. So we're actually continuing to be very very positive on the industrial sector demand because that third leg of the stool continues to be strong. Kut and I get thirty seconds left. I'm sorry for this. It deserves a much longer amount of time. Bernard Bruckwen said by straw hats and Winner. I'm seeing images of Paris in revolt. I'm seeing talk about a collapse of the fifth Republic of mccram, maybe even a reformation of

a new republic, a sixth Republic. Can you go along France here? Given all the turmoil. I think that what you need to understand is what has happened in each of these markets. Look at their response to the energy crisis, because they stepped into the market to support that low end consumer. And it's those consumers that are going to remember that. And that's where the popular pressure really counts.

At populous pressure, which really looks at these markets fragmenting, I think that that argument is really has gone out of the window. We think that Europe stays together and that is positive for all those markets in Europe. Contarina, thank you for helping us start the show this morning. Continua Dudley here with Franklin Mutual joining us now with Jenny Montgomery Scout as Christopher Marinaki is in banking at Research an important voice to speak to it this time,

let's just start with first principles. In the moment, Christopher, is a crisis over. I think we're getting to the end. The two troubled banks have been resolved, and I think now we see resolution from both that's your bank last week and yesterday which first citizens buying the Silicon Valley. So I think we have to get to the end

of the quarter on Friday. But I feel like we are on the road to recovery, and I think when earnings are announced in a few weeks in mid April, you're going to see much better results and much better deposit flows. And most investors have understood the last few weeks. I guess I'm going to go to deposit flows right now. We're going to get more reporting on that. One of the themes out there is well at five percent forgetting about bank crisis. Money is going to move to money

market funds? Do you agree? While we've seen money market mutual funds move two hundred and fifty billion dollars the last two weeks if you look at the Thursday reporting, so clearly there has been some movement. But I think in the big picture, Tom, there's I think a lot less deposit outflow in the system. It's only four and a half percent if you look at the SAD data last Friday night, so it's more are muted, and I think we've been normalizing deposits all along. It just has

felt a lot worse the past few weeks. You know, I'm going to use the Jenny Montgomery Scott history here of Philadelphia. You go out to traditional banking outside Philadelphia, and that's a place where it would be like anywhere in America. What I detect here is banking by marketing concept. When you talk to bankers who are like normal people, how do they feel about marketing concept driven ideas intruding in this crisis on their normal banking. Well, to most customers,

they're looking for service. They're looking for more than this interest rate. If interest rate was the only thing that I think we would have seen the bank deposit costs rise a lot faster the previous four or five quarters. It's been a very slow increase of deposit rates. I think we are going to see a meaningful impact and higher rates of Q one and Q two. But in my opinion, it's a much more beauty response. Customers want safety and surety, and they also want advice, so it's

not always about interest rate. That's the dog barking in the background, just in case you that's his name as Chipper ip. I was wondering if Chipper was having a serious constipers parking. He's he's having ankst about the banking system. The Braves have beat the Red Sox like four times in spring training, just so you know, Thank you, Tom, Christopher I am curious. There's an article by Muhammadalarianlobal Opinion. I keep going back to it because it really highlights

this one aspect that people are honing in on. Even if we don't get some collapse in financial system or another bank, there still is going to be a grinding tightening, a sort of acceleration. And how much some of these regional banks withdraw some of their credit. How much are you tracking that? How much do you believe that narrative? Well, I think the credit always gets tightened in a crisis like this, We saw it in two thousand and eight nine. I think banks are going to be very discerning on

the new loans they make. There's a lot of pipeline lending that was done in January and February, and I'm sure it became a lot tighter the last three weeks. So as we head into second and third quarter, I think new loans will be very much lower, and if anything, you're going to see much higher rates. I think one of the mysteries is that bank loan rates are going

to be a lot higher. Banks you're going to charge more for risk, and that actually is going to be a benefit and it will offset some of the higher deposit rates and we see But I think your question is a good one, and ultimately credit is getting tighter. So in other words, it just to sort of frame this a little more starkly. Could we see banks survive and even thrive, especially if they're consolidating business at the same time that you see a more dramatic constriction in

overall growth in the US. Well, I think dramatic might be the thing I would disagree with. I think it's going to be incrementally slower. Banks are still in the business of taking risk and making a discerning vote of confidence for their customers. I think leverage overall is still

much lower today than it was fifteen years ago. We see a lot of banks lending at sixty five to seventy cents on the dollar when they used to lend on ninety two hundred and then the properties were coming down value significantly, So we have left leverage in the system, and I think ultimately that's a key to what banks right off and their problems. So I think credit does get tighter, for sure, but I don't think it's impossible.

And I think if anything, banks are here for businesses that they wish to support he is the company's I think who are in a good financial positions can continue to move forward and those who cannot will struggle. So you know, we do expect to see higher levels of

credit issues as this year and next year unfold. One of the big questions in the past couple of weeks is how much of a risk premium will be charged for some of the smaller and regional banks that could suffer deposit outflows in a way that the large banks just can't. How much is that going to be a lasting feature that basically the valuation story is going to be more disparate going forward of the behemoths versus the regionals. I think the regionals and even the smaller community banks

are going to do quite well. We think the deposit outflow same has been incorrect, and I think as the data is shown for March thirty first, you'll see a lot less outflows than folks have understood. I also think you're going to see a lot more clarity about the level of granularity and deposits at these smaller and mid

sized banks. So I actually think it's an opportunity for them to really open the Kimona give a lot more disclosure on deposits for lack of deposit concentration, that's going to be a huge difference when we see earnings come out in a few weeks. Chris the Wall Street Journal editorial lays out the first whatever it is the bank that went up forty five percent yesterday, they're taking outs

first citizens, They're taking out SVB. How do the banks you follow, Chris Marinac compete with a bank that has a massive support, gains losses, deposit coverage, etc. Deposit flight? How do other banks compete with someone so aided by

the government of the United States of America. Well, the reality is a lot of it comes down to individual relationships with bankers, and so you can have a lot of government aid for a given bank and a support at a moment in time, but it really doesn't have anything to do with the individual relationships and the advice that's given a bank. I think a lot of commercial businesses see a bank as a trusted advisor in addition

to their attorney, in addition to their accounts. So I don't think that the government aid has much to do with that. I think, if anything, it's going to be an ongoing conversation about what those customers need and ultimately what they need to grow their business. I think businesses are slowing down as a result of this crisis this month, and that goes back to the credit tightening that is

out there. I think there's a decision by many businesses to not increase their factories and increase their workers incrementally, just given what they've seen. Excuse you, valuable, Christopher Marinack, Thank you so much. Jenny Montgomery Scott there this morning joining us down Victoria Fernandez, who's a major charman. She's

not on the island of Manhattan. She is out there and across the rest of America also on with us because I have a final zero and she's actually I think she had one or two of the final four picked out, So she's our resident genius from our Victoria Fernandez. I'm going to cut to the chase. There is a banking crisis in a play is differently among the financial centers, and it does across Texas and the rest of this country.

Tell us how the financial crisis, the banking crisis rather that we're in now adjust the strategies of cross market global investments. Yeah. Well, first of all, I'm going to say Unfortunately, my cougars are no longer in the final four. But that's okay. We'll go from there. When we look at what's going on in the banking sector, we have to say, wait, all of this has tightened financial conditions. That's the key point that we're looking at right here.

So when you have tighter financial conditions, which the FED has been trying to do for such a long period of time and has not been very successful at it, the banking crisis did it pretty quickly. People are saying, depending on what analysts you talk to, it could be anywhere from twenty five to one hundred basis points of rate heights that they have seen because of the crisis. That's kind of now built in. Here's what we have to watch with that. When you have tighter financial conditions.

You guys were talking about the smaller banks that are out there. Let's look at the Senior Loan Officer survey that comes out in a couple of weeks and see what is happening with lending. It's probably coming down. That's going to affect M two growth. It's going to affect economic activity that flows through to earnings because pricing power is gone, margins are going to get hit and that then flows through to the labor market. This is the

progress that the FED is watching. They want to see this happen, and so I think this fits into their story. But Tom, here's the thing that can change pretty quickly if the data changes. So how do you change equity allocation? I mean the charm of cross Mark is you're working with real people with real money. Everybody, including me, is real scared about some of the banking news that we see. Given some level of new restriction or super restriction, how

do you change your equity allocation? Yeah, well John's not there today, so I guess we can talk about the Dow a little bit. Continue. We've seen the Dow down year to date, but we've seen the NASTAC in the SMP higher because of the big turnover people going into those tech stalks. What we're actually doing a cross Mark is trimming some of those tech stocks because they've have this run and we don't anticipate we're going to continue to see it. Because we don't think rates are going

to continue to fall right here. We think we're gonna see them turn around. We continue to look at quality names, names with strong balance sheets, names with good business models. That's what we're focusing on. We have some cyclical we have a little bit of growth in there too, but some of those value names, it's when we hit the reception, which previously we would have said that was later in

the year. Now we're looking more summertime. That's when you're going to start to go a little bit growth here. That's when you're going to start to look at maybe the lower quality names that tend to do better once we hit a sustained recovery. What are the quote unquote lower quality names in the Dow Jones Industrial Average. Well, I think you just have to look at some of the names, some of these that have been really hard hit.

We're looking at names they do the opposite of what we were just talking about, that typically don't have the strongest balance chets, their earnings are not the strongest there. I'm not going to give specific names on those because we're not buying them right now, so compliance would be a little have an issue, yes, exactly, so you can't do that. I will say names that we have been adding a little bit to JP Morgan because of what's

happened there and their valuations look strong. Some of the more stable names that we have in there in healthcare names will come out of those and go into some of the other names, um, you know, looking at the more cyclical growth names. Once we hit a recession, looking at the middle of the year, Victoria, if the Fed cuts rates, do you get more bullish on risk assets? Yeah, you know, it's an interesting question because it depends. That's

why we're seeing rates being cut. If we're seeing rates cut because we anticipate a recession, we're gonna wait a little bit longer. If we're actually in a recession and we're cutting rates and it's the start of the new sustained bull market, then yes, then I think you can do some risk assets. You don't want to go into those names until we get to the recession. You don't get your bottom in your market before that, so we need to wait and see that. We're not particularly saying

one hundred percent. We've already seen the bottom in the market, so we're still being cautious, biting our time a little bit. I'd rather be a little late to the party than get there early and not have anything there just quickly, Victoria. What's the best head right now against potentially higher inflation

environment for longer. Well, look, you're asking a bond girl this question, and so I'm going to tell you need to have that diversification in your portfolio by adding some fixed income, and don't just add short term fixed income, because you're setting yourself up for interest or for reinvestment risk. Once those bonds match, or a Barbell strategy, add some fixed income and then the equity adds some of those lams. Bond girl, with thirty seconds here United Healthcare with that

ginormous bond deal. It takes him out to eleven percent twelve percent debt, which many people in the textbooks would stay still underdebted. United Healthcare in the last ten years is up twenty five point six percent per year. That's their stock. Are we going to see a ton of issuances by the quality names of the Dow Jones Industrial average.

I wouldn't be surprised if we did, tom, especially if people anticipate the rates are going to go a little bit higher, if they believe the central banks that there's more work to do than we could see some issues come in and lock in some of the lower rates that they have right now. Victoria, thank you so much.

Victoria Fernandas their crossmart Global Investments to give us a perspective now our definitive expert on China, Stephen Engel in his very late evening and Steven Angel, I want to go beyond the headlines here, just a your perspective on the government, on mister g and on Jack Mah. Is Jack Mah still part of a new six unit Ali Baba? Yes and no. He is the face obviously, is the founder co founder of Ali Baba. And I love this story that you just talked about about meeting Jack Ma.

I've met him many times over my twenty years at Bloomberg in thirty two years now in Asia Pacific, and he always talked kind of not nonchalantly, but a bit of a chest puffed out about regulation and that how he had to stay ahead of the regulators. Well, obviously the regulators caught up with him in October or thereabouts of twenty twenty, scuppering that big multi universe IPO for Aunt Financial, And since then the company has been absolutely obliterated,

going from I'm not talking about Aunt. Aunt's been sidelined absolutely, but I'll bob has gone from an eight hundred billion valuated company down to about two hundred and twenty billion. So now they're they're going to not break up, but they're going to kind of be reshuffled. Is this at government order? We don't know. Is it going to unlock more value than the pre break up if you will, or pre excuse me, pre at breakup. We don't know yet,

a lot of questions to be answered. There is though, one clear underlying feature here, which is government intervention in businesses that used to be the darlings of the nation. This person who used to be Steve Jobs, but even much more so in terms of the reception that he would get on stage and in these sort of rock star events that he would hold. Stephen, what does this say in terms of the climate right now and how quickly it is changing in modern China. Well, the government's

trying to say all the right things. Keep in mind they're having the China Development Form in fact in Beijing right now at the Dalutai State Guesthouse just wrapped up today. Tim Cook is their Ray Dalio and a few others, but a number of big name USCO has kind of stayed away, not necessarily wanting the blowback in the United States because of the relationship troubles between China and the

United States. But then they're going to have their world Economic forum called the BOOL Forum that started today as well. Down in Hainan Island. They're trying to make the sales pitch back to skeptical global investors after three punishing years of COVID zero as well these regulatory simultaneous regulatory crackdowns on the platform economy, on the private sector, on property, on online gaming, on so many sectors of the economy all at once. They're talking up the private sector. The

government wants to support the private sector. But again, we've kind of rolled our eyes a little bit because we get tired of the narrative for three straight years of saying they want to do this and then acting differently. I'm gonna throw a little bit of caution on this.

The market likes this right now. They think this is an opportunity to reinvigorate and get that entrepreneurial spirit back into a Beachheim, which was a behemoth Ali Baba, but it's been dwindled down by regulation as well as large s. Stephen, what is the public reception to the intervention of the Communist Party of China In some of these previously much heralded companies that represented the mainland. I think there's a lot of frustration. That's anecdotal. I mean, I do talk

to my sources in mainland China. There's there's there is a bit of frustration. Few people will go on record to say this frustration. But there's been a power grab if you will, at the top of you know, leader echelon of leadership there with chie Jumping almost becoming absolute ruther with his loyalists as his deputies. So there's some speculation or some you know, skepticism if you will, that the good old days perhaps for the private sector are our pars them. But again, we we just don't know,

Tom even what's so important here. And to use your years and years of expertise behind those red doors in Beijing, they're obviously recalibrating after the political moment of November, after the coronation, if you will, of moving mister g forward. And then the reality is we're hearing reports from Bloomberg News and others that the Belt in the Road initiative to be polite is struggling. How successful right now is their business, is their finance? Is the Chinese capitalistic experience.

It's struggling obviously, coming out of three years of COVID zero that really decimated confidence, It decimated investment coming into China. It perhaps also harmed in a more tangible way the confidence that others have in China. So the Belt and Road initiative has turned into what some would say is debt diplomacy in some countries that are having some debt issues obviously, so the jury is still out on the

Belton Road for sure. Stephen. One final question, if I may, with great respect for your years of service in Hong Kong, is Hong Kong the new Hong Kong? Is it open for business? It seems like it's open for business, and they're sure doing everything that they can. And we'll have to see as well whether the IPO market is going to rekindle confidence in Hong Kong as well. And that's one interesting thing on come full circle on the Ali

Baba's story. Those six individual units. Daniel John, the CEO, says, each one of those six individual units will be able to do their own fundraising and if that means IPO, that means IPO. It's going to be up to the heads of those individual divisions that could because no restructuring like this would come without the blessing of the central government in Beijing, So this means could mean that IPOs could be coming back to Hong Kong. Are Stephen Engel

from Hong Kong. Subscribe to the Bloomberg Surveillance podcasts on Ample, Spotify and anywhere else you get your podcasts. Listen live every weekday starting at seven am Eastern. I'm Bloomberg dot Com, the iHeartRadio app tune In, and the Bloomberg Business app. You can watch us live on Bloomberg Television and always I'm the Bloomberg Terminal. Thanks for listening. I'm Tom Keane, and this is Bloomberg