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Yley joins us this morning for an extended conversation. Waly, I want to go back to first principles. My great mentor in the United Kingdom, he has recently died. Meg didn't decigh. Lord de Siah of India and of the United Kingdom would say, it's just about profit. What is the quality the physics of technology profit that makes you committed to mag seven.
Well, it is about quality of profit. It is about it is also about the reality of Ernie's coming through really strong.
Right.
We're not putting hypothesis out there. We're just looking at the ability of these companies to generate earnings, to generate profits, and so far, if you look at equity attribution of various markets globally, US really stood out in being able to deliver earnings to justify the performance and tag Magnificant seven in particularly really stood out in terms of their earnings basically explaining almost all of their performance so far this year.
When will you.
Know the profit of all this CAPEX investment? Are you going to know that somewhere next year or do we have to wait.
Ten years to know maybe somewhere in between. Actually that's a very good point. So far, Phase one of this buildout has been really companies spending their free cash flow and they are awash with cash to invest in this mega deal. But we're now entering phase two where perhaps the buildout is more capital intensive. We're talking about some new entrants tapping into bond market, into private credit, into joint ventures to fund some of this investment, and vendor
financing is seeing as well. Right so phase two is more capital intensive and timing is everything. You know, we can be right about the revolutionary nature of the technology, but we can still have a very rocky market on our hand. So what we're seeing right now is the trillions of copecks being kind of talked about and estimated in the coming years. But time will tell if we have the right regional investment to justify those investments, those
copex commitment. But in the meanwhile, we cannot afford to stay out of this market. So sign posting is everything, looking at earnings, looking at free cash flow in particular of those companies that are going to be consumers of this copex invest is how we are navigating this moment.
Well, we are, in fact in the middle of earning season.
That's a good thing.
We saw some pretty strong numbers out of the big money center banks and now we're getting some industrial companies reporting. But it seems like geopolitics is not far off the radar for this market. China in particular trade discussions with the US. How do you think about that? Is that something you just try to ignore? Do you try to play it? Because it seems like the trade talks with China and what that means for global GDP over the coming years are still front and center.
It's really hard to follow the headlines blow by blow, like from one moment we heard it maybe we're going to get a good deal between US China and to the next moment where maybe.
The meeting won't happen.
So it's very noisy in terms of headlines right now. And if you look at the Bloomberg US Trade Policy Uncertainty Index, it picked in aprol but it recently started going higher again. So Marcus are reacting quite a lot to it, but I think it's very hard to generate alpha by just following headlines. So focusing on the things that cannot change very quickly in the near term is
how we're to navigate the environment. So inflation considerations for the US, but also thinking about the balance of payment for China and how important there is, and if Marcus get carried away, we would lean against that extreme pricing because these things cannot change very quickly, which is why right now Westiell pro risk despite the very busy trade headlights.
Wally with Blackrock Wethers for an extended conversation to start strong Elizabeth, economy and China in the nine o'clock hour. I just put out on LinkedIn my LinkedIn of the day. It's way Lee. I had to be polite, you know, did that. But it's a great Bloomberg screen of the margin difference between S and P and small cap excuse me, large cap versus small cap Way, Lee, it's back thirty years.
Can I say it's ever been like this?
I think we're seeing some extraordinary ca shaped developments. The charge that I put out, the Bloomberg screenshot that I put out on LinkedIn is the profit margin of s and P five hundred large cap and SMP six hundred small cap, and they're really starting to diverge. But that's just one manifestation of this case shaped development. Right, we see K shaped recovery of the consumers. We see K shaped kind of default type of pattern in credit and also including in private credit.
I think in an environment where we don't have rising.
Tide of very easy policy lifting or boat of very easy fiscal streamulus kind of supporting everything, being very selective in terms of how we deploy risk is going to be the name of the game. We see credit market. You look at the cycle, there is almost amazing credit cycle, but digging under the hoods fundamentals support the very strong large cups a wash with cash, whereas the very small
players are currently under pressure. So case shaped development is a characterization of the environment that we're.
In, and I think that's here to stay for a while.
Well, Llie, can you talk to us about geography? Where do you see I guess best opportunities maybe US versus rest of the world. Are you focusing on Europe? How do you think about from a geographic perspective where some of the opportunities are out there.
We currently actually still like US equities.
And we also prefer Japanese aquities and we favor them over for example, European opportunities where we would want to be a bit more selective, you know, financials and industrials and how we want to play that together with defense theme.
And the reason that we still favor USP is.
You look at how markets have developed so far this year, US aquaitis became a little bit more expensive, but not as much as.
How much more expensive I E.
Rerating has taken place in the rest of the world because of the stronger earnings delivery in the US market. You look at the earnings revision the last two months or so, US earnings have been revised higher versus European earnings having been revised lower.
So the direction of travel very.
Much speaks to kind of the underlying economy and the concentration of the AI theme. So far, as long as I think we're still in this AI AI conviction AI core, it will be hard to fade the US acute market at this juncture.
In the fixed income space here, I mean you can sit there to your treasury get three almost three and a half percent here that seems to be not a bad place to be here. Do you sit there in the US treasuries or do you maybe take some credit risk out there?
Really, for our Q four outlook that was released now when mid October that was released almost one month ago, we upgraded the long duration US treasury is because we felt that the FED is getting lucky a little bit because it is embarking on restarting the fat cutting cycle, and the macro environment actually supports that, i e.
Labor market is just weak enough for fat.
Independence not to be under scrutiny as it restarts cutting cycle. Right, So as we kind of still are in this environment, the FED is still getting lucky in that, you know, like we heading into next week, I think twenty four bits of recud is a foregone conclusion. We do want to lean into this momentum and lock in some of those really attractive real news in particular, so we like treasuries at at this juncture.
When I got you read my mind, Paul, I'm glad you brought it up, because I've been really like pretty century focused.
I got a three ninety five ten year yield.
Is this finally where we get the inertial force to lower yields. Do we finally break down to a lower real yield lower nomenal yields.
Well, we do think that in the very near term markets can go with this narrative.
That's because of weak labor markets.
Actually the defense needs to cut and because there is micro justification for that. Maybe the long end of the curve is not going to be penalized in that tom premium may not go higher as markets challenge the independence topic. So there is a bit of a sweet spot for treasuries now. Having said it, heading into next year, if you look at the market pricing for policy path, we're talking about below two point nine percent by the end of twenty twenty six.
I think given the.
Still broadly inflationary environment, we're still waiting to see the impact of Taroff's feed through to CPI poet for example, I think market pricing for below two point five percent pol see two point nine percent policy rates by the end of next year is too optimistic. But we may not get to the awakening moment just yet, which is why we're taxically overweight.
I've got to ask you, really, with your heritage in your academic excellence in China.
We have Elizabeth Economy coming up of Stanford later. Wayle your thoughts on this important set of meetings to a new five year plan in China.
Well, this is an economy that needs to go through reforms.
Right like this has been talked about for many years now.
It needs to go from an investment a driven type of growth model to consumption having a driven type of growth model. And right now consumer sentiment still is somewhat to tap it. So I think how to energize that is going to be very key, especially against the backdrop of aging population and structural headwainds to economy. So that's a very delicate balance. But the key here is mega forces and specifically navigating and capitalizing on the AI revolution.
Wellie, thank you so much for blackgrect Stay with us. More from Bloomberg Surveillance coming up after this.
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This is a conversation of the week.
But dare I say, folks here in October our most important hydrocarbon conversation.
To the end of the year. Edward Morris is absolutely iconic.
Made more so it's City Group recently screaming at the oil perpetually over one hundred dollars a barrow, people going.
Maybe not. He is right, He was right, I should say, and still is right.
At Hard Tree Partners, Ed Morse joins us with all of his service to the nation, Senior fellow, Consulate Foreign Relations. You open up classic Ed Moyer, Ed Morse, Supply and demand in the increase of oil on the water. What is oil on the water is that boats.
It's actually tankers, and they're either moving from where the supply is coming from, going to where the demand is, or they're just not going anywhere because there's nobody who wants the oil. So we've had an incredible surge in oil on the water. That surge has come after the summer demand season is over. It's come as OPEC plus
is added oil to the market. So Bessemus were two hundred and fifty million barrels of oil in transit as a week ago, and that's the most since twenty twenty, which we all remember when oil prices were negative.
Well, oil prices went negative, and again you said, look for or prices the acclaim Bloomberg Business Week cover of years ago of tankers off Singapore.
Just sitting in the water. Is that what twenty twenty six looks like.
Well, twenty twenty five certainly looks like it's going to end that way. What happens in twenty twenty six is partly a function of what the OPEC countries decide to do. Are they going to continue to put more oil in the market. And the other big question is China. China has absorbed most of the excess amount of oil in the market. That's why inventories are so low around the world. Other than China, they were importing an average of over
a million barrels a day to put in storage. That's geopolitical. Of course, they've kind of slowed down a little bit related I'm sure to US China talks, but those seem to be going nowhere. So China is part of the issue of how much they're going to suck in to build their own inventory for some future date.
Oil at fifty eight dollars, with wtcude oil at fifty eight dollars a barrel, is there a global glut of oil in the marketplace.
Well, it looks like that. That's what the oil on the water is telling us. There's a glut. It's showing up. It's beginning finally to show up in inventories. But the inventories are so low they have a long way to go. But yes, there is definitely a glut. Supply is significantly more than what demand is at the moment.
So what is this.
If I'm sitting down there. I watched Landman from one season, so I know all about the oil and gas.
I'm an expert in Austin at the f one at the Sweeney Corner.
Yes, was the big advertisement for Landman, so I.
Know all about the global energy business.
What's the fix that?
I mean?
If I'm in Houston, I want seventy five dollars a barrel, don't I?
Well, if you're in use and.
You want the highest price you can get, so yes, certainly is higher than WTI.
And we'll see how they're doing.
You know, the US hit record levels of production the month of August, where you don't have the full data yet, but there's no sign of there being a downturn in the US production. I think among the things to look at at the moment in the month of November is whether the Crown Princess Saudi Arabia is going to come to the United States in November.
Eighteenth, seems to be the schedule. How will that response be. What will be the oil discussion in the Oval Office?
Well, I suspect he's not going to come if earlier in November they decide to not put more oil in the market in December, so I think that'll be a signal. Okay, I think they're looking at three or four things. They've noticed that Katar has gotten a NATO like defense agreement with the US government. They would certainly like something similar to that. They are more important in many respects to the US and to Trump's desire to have lower gasoline
prices at the pump. They're looking for a military deal similar to the one that was struck when Trump was visiting Riod last spring, and that was just about one hundred and fifty billion dollars worth of military equipment. They're particularly looking for F thirty five fighter jets. Are they going to get any at all? Are they going to get what they want? Is they going to be a
nuclear agreement? Are they going to be seeing US technology and US material come in as they build a nuclear energy for power generation and pre up more oil for export.
Ed Morse for as we continue right now with heart Tree and of course Iconic It's City Group and his assistance of the country and studying oil particularly within the Middle East.
Twenty twelve. I remember this article Matt.
Bessler came out of Michigan, Great great academics and economics at Michigan writing for Business Insider. It's just the classic headline cities ed Morse as a huge note blasting everyone who believes in peak oil. This is the feisty Morse from years ago peak oil biases continued a blind analyst to an emerging oil cycle turning point. You nailed it, Matt Belser, I should say, is now with Bloomberg, and that's to our advantage.
You nailed it. What's the myth right now in oil that's wrong?
The myth that's wrong is that oil demand is peaking, whether it's peaking in twenty twenty eight or twenty thirty two. The consensus in the market seems to be that oil demand is peaking. Yet if you try to study oil demand, you can notice that whatever the cycles have been GDP is the driver of oil demand and GDP relationship with oil. The oil intensity of GDP is certainly falling. It's been
falling at a steady pace. It's a very linear line from where we were in the early seventies when for every one percent increase in GDP around the world, and we do this in constant dollars, by the way, there was over one percent demand for oil that has come down linearly. And we just looked deeply at twenty twenty through the first half of twenty twenty five, and we're on a slope that tells us that oil demand is going to peak in twenty sixty four.
Oh kay, well that's out there, Lisa, make note of that twenty sixty four.
Ed and I won't be around Ed Morris. What's your target on oil here? Now?
You were so good at one hundred saying think eighty. At eighty, thinks sixty? Can Ed Morse think forty dollars a barrel.
I think it gets to forty by over exuberants once it crashes through that fifty dollars number. So I think there'll be a lot of reactions at under fifty.
What does fifty dollars barrel oil mean for the Middle East and particularly for riodd.
It means a little bit of difficulty on the credit side. So yes, they have a fiscal break even that is substantially higher than sixty dollars rent. But they get in trouble with their A plus rating on credit and they need the credit. They need the lending in order to make their own energy transition, which is to diversify their economy and get off in dependence on crude oil.
John from the Jersey Shore emails and he says, with my homer, h two what's a gal and a guess cost at ed Morris is forty?
I mean, where are we under two bucks? Wow? Two dollars a gallon?
Well, detends on we're in the country, if you're in California.
More censor it is.
Yeah, there's always absolutely brilliant.
Are evs having an impact on the price of oil?
Of course they are. They're part of the system of replacing oil with something else. And if we look at the declining intensity that oil has in GDP around the world, we're having an increase intensity of GDP in electricity and that's where the geopolitics are turning. As we look into the next decade.
Yep, please come back next week. Ed Morris with this with hard Tree, folks. What a briefing there for Global Wall Street.
Edward Morris with all of his service to the country, the discussion of.
Oil, the geopolitics of oil. Stay with us.
More from Bloomberg Surveillance coming up after this.
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I have been asking for days. Please.
Elizabeth Economy of Stanford, Doctor Economy joins us right now. Definitive on the trans Pacific debate.
Eli's Economy. Just the prism of seven.
Eight, nine military commanders out the door in China, how do you interpret that?
I mean, you know, honestly, this has been thirteen years worth of a continuing anti corruption purge.
It sounds like a lot, and it's not.
Insignificantly given that three of them are members of the Central Military Commission, which is the top body that oversees the party body that oversees the Chinese military.
So that's three out of seven that were just purged.
So it's not you know, inconsequential, but you know, Shejenping, this is just a continuation of, you know, a purge that just never ends for him. You know, what does that say about the nature of how he goes around dealing with corruption? I think it suggests that he hasn't found the proper method to deal with this because you know, it's it's ongoing and these are people that he himself put in place, So it's not about finding people who
are more loyal to him necessarily. These were supposed to be, you know, loyal compatriots.
So it's not a good look. But frankly, it's not that new.
So one of the problems here, Paul, and this is like the small life that I live with Elizabeth Economy. They have a book thing in the back of Foreign Affairs magazine and Elizabeth Nay will be there and go let me ruin your October November December. I have literally listen the top of my pile the book. You said, here's the primer on the military power of China. Bloomberg Surveillance just spoke with Admiral Mullen and we talked about
the self China Sea. Give us the Liz Economy update on the military capability of China and the self China Sea.
Yeah.
I mean, I think you know from everything and you you have the book in front of you so you can you can read it yourself, Tom, But I think the you know, the takeaway is really that China has made enormous gains in terms of its military capabilities, particularly in terms of sort of the near abroad, you know, in its own backyard. It wants to be the dominant military power in the Asia Pacific, so that's been its priority.
I think the weaknesses remain in terms of the command and control, the fact that China doesn't necessarily, you know, hasn't had a lot of actual war fighting experience, so nobody really knows how good they'll be when put to the test, and whether the top down nature of control will enable sort of the mid level military commanders to make the type of split you know, moment decisions, split second decisions that you.
Want them to be able to make. So there are some you know, weaknesses.
And again I think they haven't made you know, progress as much progress as they would have liked in establishing bases overseas, you know, they want to have a larger footprint globally.
They're doing that in terms of their arm sales.
They're doing more military training of other countries, you know, with the People's Liberation Army. So they have in place many of the elements of a global military presence, but they're not quite there yet, and I think that's you know, those are sort of the two major messages if we're trying to understand where the Chinese military still fall short.
Those are probably the two.
Main areas, Elizabeth, for those of us on Global Wall Street, we're trying to keep a pace of the changing economic discussions between the US and China.
Here.
Will there be a meeting with President she and President Trump later this month? What's your current read of the relationship of the potential negotiations and how this all might shake shakeout.
Yeah, I mean, I think, you know, odds of there being a meeting are quite high right now. You know, it looked less good, you know, a week or two ago when we had the most recent sort of tit for tat with the US export controls and the Chinese controls and new licensing restrictions on rare earth elements. So that was, you know, I think, a huge dust up. But President Trump is pretty clearly signaled that he expects to meet with President t on the sidelines of Apek
in South Korea next week. So I take that as a positive in terms of what's likely to come out of the meeting.
Look, the President has made clear what.
He wants he wants, you know, and it's nothing we haven't heard before. You know, he wants China to do more in terms of controlling the export of the prebursors for fetanyl. He wants China to you know, buy more soy beans, you know, because basically they're not buying any soy beans from the United States. They've completely gone to
other you know markets like Brazil and Argentina. And he wants China to lift these new restrictions on the export of rare earth elements because that really hits hard at our technology and defense industries. For China, you know, they've liked to see you know, the United States not discriminate against Chinese companies, you know, globally, they want the US to lift its own export controls, particularly the last set, which basically places about twelve thousand Chinese companies on the
entity list, which is pretty you know, significant. They've liked the president to do something on Taiwan, at the very least an affirmation of you know, the One China what we call the One China policy, what they call the One China principle.
They're slightly different.
I have to interrupt you. This is too important. What is the Elizabeth economy Gaussian distribution of outcomes with Trump Ji and China. What's the most likely thing in Taiwan? What's the most likely thing?
Liz on the Taiwan question, I think the president is President Trump. I don't think he has much personal interest in Taiwan, much of a sort of personal sensibility of its importance.
To save the fact.
That we know import more than ninety percent of our advanced semiconductors from from Taiwan, and that will continue to be the case despite all of the investment in the United States by TSMC, their major semiconductor manufacturing firm. So he's not going to get away from the silicon shield.
But I think, you know, the range of possibilities I think basically is, you know, number one that we sort of say we commit to and I think this is on the outside, we commit, you know, to you know, diminish our arm sales to Taiwan.
I think that would be you know, high priority of China. I think that's less likely, but it's a possibility.
Well, there's a number of years ago. Your book The Third Revolution was my book of the summer folks. It's dated, not to short read. Let's bring that up to date. What's the Fourth Revolution look like? A doctor economy for Beijing and for President jy No.
I mean, I think the Fourth Revolution, my hope would be, would be a new Chinese leadership with a sort of return to a more open political.
And economic system.
You know.
The sort of the trend is basically every thirty years you get a revolution, and so we're not we're not quite ready for the revolution to do things. Been in power for twelve years, so there's a long space to go yet to have that next revolution. I think what we're going to continue to see, frankly, in the foreseeable future is just an amping up of what we already have, which is just this incredible you know, investment in terms
of innovation and technology. This ramping up of China's presence and its belief in its own leadership on the global stage, which you know, can only be curtailed, possibly by you know, a US let alliance pushing back against some of its worst practices, and potentially by some internal factors, you know, some of China's economic challenges that it's facing that it
still hasn't dealt with. But I think in terms of the you know, next ten years or so, I think it's all system goes for Sijinping in China.
Well, Elizabeth, if Jijimpal does sit down with President Trump in South Korea later this month, who has the leverage if anyone.
You know.
I think when this all began, I was pretty skeptical about the US leverage with regard to China, which I think was built on the faulty premise that simply because we import so much more from China than China does from US, that that gave us leverage because it excluded the fact that we, you know, have so much more single source dependency on China for things like rare earth elements and for the precursors for you know, hundreds of
our most important drugs, right precursor chemicals, the active pharmaceutical ingredients.
So I think that this, you know.
Was the fundamental mistake that this administration made when it first launched this trade war with China, that it thought China was simply like every other country. And now we're paying the price for that. So in my estimation, China has the stronger hand, and at some level it's always had the stronger hand. It's better able to tolerate the pain,
you know, from its population. It had done more to diversify into other markets over the past you know, four to you know, nine years, and so I think it's in a better position.
Unfortunately, I got one final question now that you're sconce out at Stanford, she doesn't give any I mean, it's all solid disease for Elizabeth Economy. She's at the Hoover Institution, and of course, with all of her work over the years for America on Jenner Public Service, I should say with Secretary of Commerce Ra mendo here recently.
Liz, when you teach it's Stanford.
Or the young people come up and say, OMG, Elizabeth Economy, do you still tell them to read Jonathan Spence's The Search for Modern China?
Is it still valid as thick as it is?
You know, listen I think Spence.
I think there are many Chinese, you know, historians of China. I think all of it's valuable because understanding the history of China helps you understand the mindset that China brings to the table today. So absolutely, I would continue to recommend you know books by Jonathan Spence if in fact, any students came up to me and said, oh my godless Economy.
Although some students do come up.
To me, did some of them probably say it Mandarin?
We got to leave it there, Elizabeth Economy, thank you so much at Stanford. She's been a huge supporter of our effort. Here stay with us. More from Bloomberg Surveillance coming up after this.
This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Listen live each weekday starting at seven am Eastern on Applecarplay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station, Just say Alexa, Play Bloomberg eleven.
Thirty Lisa Mateo with the newspapers, What do you have?
Tighter visa restrictions could be the reason behind a dropping applications for MBA programs in the US. They're saying a lot more of those international.
Students saw that. Yes, they're choosing to.
Go closer to home. That's the choice they're starting to make. I want to point out the data really quickly. It says interest in MBA programs in the US drop one percent in twenty twenty five. Applications to business school programs worldwide they increased seven percent. And it's a big turnaround from last year when more people were going.
You mentioned to dinner last night, and there was a blurb yesterday and the zeitgeist of PhD which is not nbas I'm going to use this word loosely, folks, PhD applicants that major schools have cratered because there were so many internationals as well.
Yeah.
Yeah, and it too, and it's they tend to be full pay. The international students tend to be full paid. They're sponsored by their companies and things like that. So it's an issue.
John Silber, Boston University. Nice one, that really efforted it. Yep, brilliant. Anything else on that, Lisa.
Yeah.
Also one more thing from that is that in East Asia, including China, international applications were up forty two percent, So that's kind of a big Insuria that we're talking about where they're deciding to stay home. Okay, so this next one we mentioned earlier, so I wanted to kind of dig into it and get into those Burkeen and Kelly bags. Okay, So it was another quarterly sales JONT but investors one and more and that was kind of the issue Shoe
their key leather unit. They fell short of expectations, even though it was higher than lvm H. But despite all that, it's still like top luxury brands, it's keeping their business models, keeping people hooked, keeping those items scarce, you know, limiting demands. So you kind of get it.
You have to have that bag.
It works.
I don't don't take my word for it. I haven't jumped off from yet, but it does because in the US they're saying wealthy shoppers, especially in the US, are continued.
Really talk about tech and the stock market US really popped.
Yes, even China, and that was a big thing.
And what they say too, they didn't increase.
They increase the price back in May, but they haven't increased it since then, so I guess people were happier about that.
So you can get to buy LVMH.
So you know, a lot of broken bags at the Commonwealth conference.
Did you okay?
There was another?
Okay, very nice.
There you go Commonwealth for you first. The keynote speaker Commonwealth today is coach k I'm surprised, exactly.
I do.
Okay, So six Flags right, the theme park has been struggling. I remember as a kid, we always used to go. Bad weather, Yes, bad weather, declining visits. So now an Actis investor is pushing for big changes. He's teamed up with Travis Kelsey. Yes, NFLS Travis Kelcey. It's New York based head front, Janet Partners, Kelsey other investors combined stake of about nine percent of theme park operator shares or two hundred million dollars. And he actually said Kelsey said
he is a superfan. He loves roller coasters. He's been going to these things since he was a kid. So the chance to kind of work with him, he was all up for it. So he's starting to get into it. And so they have a couple plans what they want to do, like you know, marketing and customer experience, modernizing technology, refreshed leadership, which was interesting that they said that and even evaluate a potential sale so we'll see what happens.
But you know they've worked with celebrities before, active as.
Celesters, Cec Sabathia, Shaquille O'Neill.
There you go, exactly, And those are the.
Chiefs, the fundamental things. The chiefs are doing better. Lisa gonna tell her the newspapers. Thank you so much, greatly, greatly appreciate that.
This is the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast, available on Apple, Spotify, and anywhere else you get your podcasts. Listen live each weekday, seven to ten am Eastern on Bloomberg dot com, the iHeartRadio app, tune In, and the Bloomberg Business app. You can also watch us live every weekday on YouTube and always on the Bloomberg terminal