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Stocks Look Forward Past Nvidia

Aug 28, 202536 min
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Episode description

Watch Tom and Paul LIVE every day on YouTube: http://bit.ly/3vTiACF.
Bloomberg Surveillance hosted by Tom Keene & Paul SweeneyAugust 28th, 2025
Featuring:
1) Dan Ives, Global Head: Technology at Wedbush Securities, breaks down Nvidia earnings and offers his outlook for AI. Analysts are staying bullish on Nvidia, boosting price targets after its results, citing the chip giant's longer-term prospects. At least 10 firms hiked their 12-month price targets, raising the average by 3% to $202.60, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Wall Street remains overwhelmingly bullish on the stock, with 72 buy-equivalent ratings, and only seven analysts have a hold rating and the stock has a sole sell rating.
2) Anastasia Amoroso, Chief Investment Strategist, Private Wealth at Partners Group, joins for an extended discussion on private markets. Stocks shook off an initial drag from Nvidia’s sales outlook missing lofty expectations, indicating that momentum behind the record-breaking rally remains intact.
3) John Mowrey, CIO at NFJ, joins for a discussion finding value in markets beyond Nvidia and the big tech names, and discusses concerns about inflation and the US labor market. Investors will turn their focus to next month’s Federal Reserve interest rate decision and data releases, including initial jobless claims data and revised second-quarter gross domestic product figures due later Thursday.
4) Lisa Mateo joins with the latest headlines in newspapers across the US, including a WSJ story on AI-skilled 20-something's making hundreds of thousands a year and an NYT story on chicken nuggets possibly being wiped from cafeteria menus in NYC public schools.

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Transcript

Speaker 1

Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio news. This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Catch us live weekdays at seven am Eastern on Apple car Play or Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube.

Speaker 2

Let's dive a little bit deeper into the Nvidia earnings. Who do you want to dive deeper in than d.

Speaker 3

No better person right now?

Speaker 2

That's our guy. I mean, he's getting geared up for Penn State, Nevada this weekend, but he's probably focusing a little bit here on Nvidia. Hey, Dan, I thought these numbers were darn good, but I know there's the law of large numbers. I know there's a whole thing about expectations. Give us your take on these Nvidia numbers, Dan, I.

Speaker 4

Thought they were robot and I think the some extent when you factored China and they actually beat expectations, especially when you look at the outlook. I think there's a stock that's up today and I think it further validates Well. We've obviously been talking a lot, you know, with you and the team about about the AI story now playing out into the next stiege of growth. This is bullish in my opinion.

Speaker 5

Dan, what was your takeaway here as it relates to a lot of the spending here Capax.

Speaker 4

I think it just sures there's one ship in the world, fewling the AI revolutions led by godfather of AI, Jensen, the Vidning and you what's happened on Capex. It's just continuing to accelerate, and then you factor in China that could be fifty billion. I mean in just talking about

the fifty percent growth. I look, I think this is just now it's showing the next feeds of the AI revolutions now starting to play out, especially when you combine it with hyper scalers and everything we've seen from Pallenteer now Snowflake, Mango de Be, the use cases are expanded.

Speaker 2

Dan, flush out for us the whole China situation. Where is in Vidio today visa via China? And how do you think this is going to play out over the coming quarters with our age twenty.

Speaker 4

Chip Yeah, Paul, Look, they're they're cognmental between US and China. But the reality is Jensen's ten percent politician, ninety percent CEO and Trump administration to do is big as Chip on the broker table is in the video. So as this all plays out there, it's to pay for play model. They're going to have access to China, even if it's restricted, and that's going to add and incremental what two five

six billion per quarter. And you know, even though Beijing's saying telling you know, maybe these companies you don't want to buy in video chips, that's like telling a kid not eat candied. Big tech in China wants in video chips.

Speaker 5

So, I mean, as we dig in here into the data, what we saw from the earnings report, what is takeaway in terms of what they were able to see specifically in terms of data center AI demand. That's definitely something that's been in focus here with this report.

Speaker 4

Yeah, look, I think it's noise in terms of any quote unquote like miss because when you factored China, it's basically over a billion and a half feet. They're seeing demand accelerate. I mean, no region is not showing acceleration. And now you're starting to factor what's going to happen in Middle East, what's going to happen in China. It's got to rest the world and you're really talking about

one chip that's fueling it. So when I walk in a video, I think there's a five trillion dollars mark cap attention by a year under early twenty six, and it's just further validation for the AI revolution. Biasis.

Speaker 2

So talk to us DAN about their customer base and the concentration of the customers, and I know they want to broaden out their customer base maybe to sovereigns into other net buyers out there. How do you think that's going to evolve?

Speaker 4

Big tech is going to continue domino as a quote unquote customer base in terms of the concentration. But now as sovereigns play out, as enterprises play out, and you're going to see more and more people you know, obviously start to understand that this revolution is not just big Tech. It's about other sort of regions starting to play. And there's only one ship in the world fuel in it, and that's in video.

Speaker 5

So taking a step back here in video wrapped up all of the mag seven earnings here. What were your thoughts more broadly overall this earning season.

Speaker 4

I mean, I think this is the bullish Tech earning season. We talked about it, the validation of the AI revolution, his next stage of growth it's spreading, second, third, fourth derivatives. Now grant look in video is a Scottie chauffeur of tech okay, But what you're just starting to see now play out is those derivatives, the spending, the multiplier, it's all happening. And I think that's just bullish going into year end in terms of tax stocks, and I think

this bull market has two to three year run still left. Dan.

Speaker 2

So as you talk to institutional investors, how are they viewing this fifteen percent? I don't know government fee that the US government may impose on some of these chip sales that China. How's that being viewed by investors?

Speaker 4

Look, it's obviously it's unusual. It's a pay for play model, but guess what, investors, it's new rules of the road, right, big text, start and understand how that works. But when it comes in video, okay, pay fifteen percent, that's breadcrumbs. You can raise prices fifteen percent. You need access to China. You can't give Huawei on a silver platter that market.

So as it continues to play out, I think investors have accepted they want to video open access to China because that continues to be the golden goose that Jensen's going after.

Speaker 2

Dan.

Speaker 5

I want to quickly go right back to what we were talking about here when it relates to data centers. How concentrated is in Video's revenue right now or like you know, the top five hyper scalers still the overwhelming majority of data center sales.

Speaker 4

You know, it's concentrated. But that's just the nature right now big text three hundred, what fifty during sixty billion? But it's going to spread sovereigns enterprises the rest of the world, and Vidia is going to continue to own that so contrade today when you look out three four, five years ago, that concentration will continue, I think to diminish as more players get into AI. But there's one chip fuel in it. It's in video.

Speaker 2

Dam How do you think about the competitive environment for in Nvidia?

Speaker 4

Here?

Speaker 2

Is it AMD? Is it Huawei? Is it others? We don't know about at the moment.

Speaker 4

Here, well, glease issue in AMD clearly competition. I think that we continue to be bullsh in that in terms of getting more and more pieces of pie. Huawei is a competitor, but that's the whole reason that you don't want to just give them full access to China because that will help them narrow the gap for bulls obviously on Broad common others. And I think, look as this plays out, in Vidia is years ahead of any of

their competition. And even when you hear talked about you know, US government and obviously you know SoftBank investing in Intel. I mean, Intel is you know, so many years behind. You know, they continue to really have just a massive uptil battle. And that's why video is top of the mountain.

Speaker 2

All right, Dan, your Penn State Nitley Ions open the season Saturday, three thirty pm on the CBS Television network, Compariment plus against Nevada forty three and a half point favorites. How do you feel about you Nitley Lions this year?

Speaker 4

I mean, look, I was at practice last week State College. I told you, I think this is the year. I think we win the nanty. We have some tough games of Oregon Ohio State, but I think Big ten continues to hold the mantle. I like al our Singleton and Penn State. I think I think we'll be holding the trophy in January.

Speaker 2

I like the call LEAs and clear and confident. Dan ives Global ahead of technology Webush Securities appreciate getting a few minutes of Dan's time here today on Nvidia and big tech. Stay with us. More from Bloomberg Surveillance coming up after this.

Speaker 1

You're listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast. Catch us Live weekday afternoons from seven to ten am Eastern Listen on Applecarplay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app, or watch us live on YouTube.

Speaker 2

Anastasia Amoroso joints as chief investment strategist at Private Wealth at Firms Partners Group. Anastasia, the market's been so fixated on AI and then I guess Nvidia is probably the poster child for AI. How do you think about that as a theme for the market. How important is that to you? The NVIDIAs of the world in this AI?

Speaker 6

Sure well, obviously very important, and Paul, I'm with you. I thought the Nvidia numbers were just fine. It's really interesting that on the surface, investors were disappointed because in Vidia, despite the fact that they beat and raised, they didn't meet the loftiest of expectations. Of course, that probably makes sense because the stock has rallied as.

Speaker 3

Much as it has, I think over one hundred percent.

Speaker 6

Since since the bottom in April, so I thought the numbers were fine, and the AI theme is obviously hugely important, and I think in Vidia highlights that it's still top of mind in front and center for investors.

Speaker 3

And I say that because, you know.

Speaker 6

Analysts focus on the growth rates that are tapering off, but consider the base.

Speaker 3

You know, consider the.

Speaker 6

Fact that AI hyperscalers are going to spend four hundred billion dollars in AI cap x in twenty twenty six. This would be a number that was unthinkable about just a couple of years ago. So we're at a significantly

higher scale. But what happens at that point? It's natural that some of those growth rates taper off, But for us, Paul, it's still AI is such an important theme, and I think in Vidia results also highlight that there's so many other ways to access that, including in private markets, including in infrastructure.

Speaker 3

So that's what we're really focused on.

Speaker 5

I mean, when we look at any sort of earnings report from Nvidia, there's a lot of anticipation heading up to it, and we do see a lot of these lofty expectations. As you noted, is there any concern that maybe, you know, expectations are too high for some of these companies.

Speaker 3

I mean, they've certainly been ratcheted up. But I will say that if.

Speaker 6

You look at the history of Nvidia, for example, it has a history of delivering on those expectations, and maybe on the exact earnings day, they don't always deliver on the loftiest of expectations. But what you see over time is the price continued to march higher because the expectations have continued to march higher. So I think that's something

that supported the stock and probably will continue. And look, you know, broadly speaking, if I think about is AI meeting expectations, I think it is for what it is today. We are starting to see some early signs of monetization, and you can think about it in terms of a couple of pockets.

Speaker 3

You can think about it.

Speaker 6

In terms of cost reduction, in terms of productivity improvements, and also in terms of actual new revenue streams. And I think the actual new revenue streams maybe are a little bit further off for some companies. Although I think we are starting to see more cloud, we're starting to see utilization, We're starting to see more social media success, for.

Speaker 3

Example with our targeted ads.

Speaker 6

So I think you start to you do have some positives in that revenue generation pocket, but you have more and more positives that companies are citing in terms of efficiency gains and in terms of cost reductions.

Speaker 3

And so that's.

Speaker 6

Why the momentum for US for AI is likely to continue, because there are tangible benefits that more and more companies can point to.

Speaker 2

So what are the ways are you suggesting that investors get exposure to AI? A lot of folks saying maybe like power generation or something like that. How do you think about that? Because not everybody is comfortable paying some of these technology multiples, and maybe a lot of folks think that some of these tech names, like the software names or maybe the hyperscalars, have kind of outrun comfort level, so they're looking for other ways.

Speaker 6

Right, Well, I think the first thing investors have to do is take a giant step back and just size the opportunity set. Right, a couple of years ago, the GENAI total addressable market was somewhere around two hundred billion dollars. You fast forward to twenty twenty seven, twenty thirty, you're now looking close to a trillion dollar TAM for artificial intelligence. So that means that it's not just nvidiaan semiconductors. But it's a whole host of beneficiaries, and I would put

them in two sorts of opportunities bucket. The first one, I would say, is an infrastructure. We have to build up the infrastructure to ensure that AI is possible.

Speaker 3

So what does that mean.

Speaker 6

That certainly means data centers, and not just any data center, but an AI specific data center, which.

Speaker 3

Requires more power density.

Speaker 6

Which requires greater connectivity, which requires more cooling.

Speaker 3

So that's a big topic for us.

Speaker 6

The second one, as you mentioned, it's actually power generation. You can't really run that data center without the power.

Speaker 3

And if you think about the power.

Speaker 6

Consumption, and it's for some of these things, it's approaching one gigawot, you know. That's what we're talking about here. The third component, which is not as well talked about, I would say, is actually fiber and all sorts of wireless connectivity. You know, it's one thing to train AI in a data center, let's say, in the middle of the country without a proximity to the end user. But it's a whole different thing if you start to do inference and you need that instant feedback loop and reaction,

so you need fiber. You need you know, dense network, you need towers, you need small cells. So there's so many opportunities within infrastructure. And then Paul the other thing, I would say in software, there's going to be winners and losers in software. But companies that we're emphasizing are those that maybe have a proprietary data set.

Speaker 3

I think that's really important.

Speaker 6

They are developing AI tools, like large language models that are able to use some of that proprietary data. They automate certain workflows and in some cases completely sort of substitute what a human may do in that situation. So you know, it's definitely a careful selection approach. But I would say so many of those companies AI software companies are actually available in private markets, much more so than what's publicly traded today.

Speaker 5

So you know, we heard that Nvidia expects to spend three to four trillion dollars on AI infrastructure through between now and the end of the decade. Here, do you have any sort of thoughts about what CAPEX looks like right now, what is spending right now in the space technology more broadly when it pertains to AI spend.

Speaker 6

Yeah, well, let's look at the hyperscalers for example, you know, I mentioned that in twenty twenty six they're likely to spend four hundred billion dollars. That's up from three hundred and fifty billion that we're forecasting for twenty twenty five.

Speaker 3

And that's up a lot.

Speaker 6

From you know, one hundred billion dollars so run rate just a couple of years ago. Now, the interesting thing about that is those estimates have been consistently moved higher, and that I think goes back to the point is a demand for AI at this point is really insatiable, and it's because we're starting to see those early signs of payoff. And so you know, if the question is do we have a concern about the sort of massive spend on AI, I wouldn't say so because the demand is just so robust.

Speaker 2

All right, let's back away from the air. I talked a little bit last week to talk was about the Federal Reserve and what are they going to do with interest rates? What did you take away from Jackson Hole and moving forward here through major.

Speaker 6

Right, Well, it was probably a strong Evan nod to September, as we could have expected from Fetchair Powell. And you know what's interesting is he clearly pivoted to focus on the labor market weakness, and we saw that once again in the conference board. For example, we saw that the labor market differential meaning the jobs that are plentiful versus hard to get, that continues to narrow. So that suggests

that labor market weakness. The other thought that I thought was interesting from Jackson Hole is that while inflation is surely likely to spike in the coming months, they're willing to look through that. And part of the reason for that is because they don't expect it to be sticky. They don't think this is going to be systemic, they don't think is going to be structural. The reason for

that is actually that weakening labor market. And you know, if you're trying to raise prices into a weakening consumer or into a weaker jobs market, you're likely not going to be successful. And so that's becoming part of the FED narrative as well. So I think it is a layout for September. I mean, barring just a huge upside surprise on payrolls, which I don't expect, or you know, barring I would say not only a spike in inflation, but a spike in inflation.

Speaker 5

Expectations, and I don't think we're seeing that. Do you agree with that view from the Fed right now? I mean, of course we know about this dual mandate. It's about stabilizing prices, bringing down inflation, and of course maximum unemployment or maximum employment excuse.

Speaker 3

Me, Yeah, I do actually very much agree.

Speaker 6

You know, I do think the FLA story, the teriff for re lated induced inflation is a one time step up higher in the price levels, and I very much agree with the argument that you don't have the labor market strength in order to be able to fully pass through those increases.

Speaker 2

You know.

Speaker 6

The other thing I would say, if you look at companies, including our portfolio companies, they're using a mix of tactics in order to deal with tariffs. Some of them are passing through all of the cost increases, for example in the data center space, because they can. Some of them are passing through partial cost increases. They're working with suppliers to absorb some of those TERRAF related increases as well, and some of them are shifting supply chains.

Speaker 3

So for that reason, I.

Speaker 6

Don't think we're seeing a huge we're going to see a huge spike in inflation as it could have been in the coming months.

Speaker 3

So that's the first part that I agree with.

Speaker 6

The second part I agree with is the labor market is clearly.

Speaker 3

Weakening, and I would say it's sort of I don't want to say the precipice, but I'll call it. It's sort of on edge.

Speaker 6

It's sort of on this edge, and if you tip it over, you're going to tip it over into weakness. You know, if you look at the unemployment rate of four point two likely go into four point three percent. If you look at the layoffs, you know, we're just this close to actually slipping into outright potential negative job growth. And by the way, you know, I mentioned that if companies are not passing through the cost increases, what are

they doing. They're absorbing that in their margins. So that's why the labor market in turn is again on this edge. So I do very much agree, and I hope we see a rate cut in September. I do associate scope for a couple more this year.

Speaker 2

Other than technology. What screens well for you guys these days? I don't know if you'd do it by industry, sector, by factor, how do you guys try to find some opportunities?

Speaker 6

We do it by theme and also of course by industry sector as well. But when I think about some of the themes that we're excited about, it's clearly the digital transformation and the many sectors that it touches. We're also investing along the sustained nobility theme as well. And finally, this notion of new living. The way we consume, the way we take care of ourselves, the way we exercise, the way we live is all very different today, and in many ways it's tech enabled.

Speaker 4

You know.

Speaker 6

Further, I would think of it in terms of different sectors within sort of the private market space, and it's it's goods and its services, it's goods and products, it's technology, and it's also healthcare, health and healthcare sciences. And so we're we're finding a multid of opportunities along all those, all four of.

Speaker 5

Those, digging into healthcare because I mean, it's the worst performing sector so far this year in the S and P five hundred. Where are you seeing opportunities there?

Speaker 7

Right?

Speaker 6

So clearly healthcare in the public markets has been the mercy of what's happening in Washington, d C. And the policy there. You know, one secular growth in healthcare, I would say, is within pharmaceuticals and the fact that so many R and D dollars have gone into new clinical trials and new discoveries and eventually for some companies those payoff.

That's not actually where we're taking our risks, but rather we're looking at pharmaceutical services that cater to the large or small farmer companies in helping them develop some of those new biologics. So we think the services side of pharmaceuticals is a better risk adjusted return in order to capitalize for what is a trend in healthcare, which is the growth in the number of molecules that are being created.

Speaker 2

Where do you see the just private capital going. It seems like the deal market's kind of picking up, seeing some more from MNA IPOs becase it's some really successful tech enabled IPOs this year. Is that suggests to you that maybe the capital markets are picking up and that could be a.

Speaker 3

Driver they are actually picking up. And I feel like this maybe.

Speaker 6

Is catching people by surprise, because when you look at the numbers year today, the first half of the year, the M and A activity is up about thirty percent. If you look at the IPO market up about twenty one percent, and Paul, You're right that it's not just the volume and the number of companies that are, you know, seeking that public listing, but it's also the performance. If you look at the average IPO of a company year to date, it's it's up fifty or sixty percent, so it's been successful.

Speaker 7

Now.

Speaker 6

I don't think it's an accident that this level of activity is happening. I think public market valuations are interesting to some of those private market companies becoming listed. I think it's increasing consumer confidence and also business confidence, which we've seen quite a turnaround actually since April. And finally it's you know, the market is sniffing out a RAID cut and so all of those things are supportive for capital markets activity. So we've seen a very robust first

half of the year already. We've actually seen an acceleration in the third quarter as well. So I suspect, especially with a RAID cut in September, this should continue.

Speaker 2

And have to labor to everybody else get back to work. Anastasia Almarroso, she's at work, chief investment strategist Private Wealth at Partners Group, joining us live here on our Bloomberg and Act report shooting. We appreciate that stay with us. More from Bloomberg Surveillance coming up after this.

Speaker 1

You're listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast. Catch us Live weekday afternoons from seven to ten am Eastern. Listen on Applecarplay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app, or watch US Live on YouTube.

Speaker 2

John Murray, he's the CIO of NFJ. They're based down in Dallas, Texas. John, how do you think about inflation, the labor market and maybe how the FED should be proceding here?

Speaker 8

So a couple of things I would say, Paul, the first on inflation, I think inflation is going to cool, and I'll say that for two reasons. The first is that housing, which is the biggest component R one third of CPI, that should continue too slow. And the reason for that is real time rents tracked by Zillo are flat to negative. On top of that, as a fundamental bottom up stock picker, I can see that in the FFO reports coming out of Mid America apartments funds flow from operation funds.

Speaker 5

Oh yeah, cover reads.

Speaker 7

So we always dook about.

Speaker 8

Okay, okay, I like that, so you can see it. You can see it in the numbers. So for those reasons. I think that people are underestimating and that's a twelve month lag, and so that data should be coming out and you have inventory building and vacancy rates rising. And that's because when rates were low, people built a lot that all came on the market, and now you have restricted that because rates are high. So there's an imbalanced brewing,

I think. So I expect that to roll over. And then the second piece is around services, which is a quarter of the CPI. Healthcare is a big chunk of that. And again bottom up basis. So you guys have seen U and H, you've seen Humana. Well, a lot of folks don't realize that the insurer portion of that basket, okay, is calculated based on margins, not what you pay at the doctor. Everyone says, well, why healthcare inflation keeps going up up, up, up up, But it's not based on that.

The insurers is based on the margins. Margins have been crushed. So I think that's going to come down and that's going to give the room a lot more ammo to cut.

Speaker 5

So speaking of cuts, I mean market is essentially pricing in a cut in the coming weeks here in September. Is that also in line with what your expectations are. And if so, what's the cadence afterward for cuts?

Speaker 8

Well, the two year bond yield has been screaming at the FETI cut for a long time now. So you've got that down there at three point six versus four and a half. You know, let's give a little bit of a sneak preed for what could happen when they start to move rates lower.

Speaker 7

The Russell two thousand.

Speaker 8

Value okay, on Friday was up just over four percent. You got one third of the entire the entire year's gain of the S and P five hundred a day. So like you, I think, think about that for a second. It's like all year the SMP, Grind, Grind Grind and vida Ai, all these amazing companies. You get one third of that return in a single day, just because Jpowell opens his mouth and says we may need to lower rates.

Speaker 7

So this is a coiled spring.

Speaker 8

And to get on another topic just briefly, with regard to unemployment, I actually think it's a moral issue that we're waiting to lower rates to see unemployment go up, because why are we doing this? We have a system that encourages debt. That is the incentive structure that is embedded with how interest is deducted.

Speaker 7

And yet we're waiting to see unemployment tick up.

Speaker 8

We're waiting to see people lose jobs before we make we make barring costs lower. And I know that the inflation goes of the seventies are haunting the FED. But I'll be honest, I think it's totally different with the economies more globalized, unionization's way down, It's a totally different landscape. So I think we should rethink this entire discussion around waiting for unemployment to go up before we cut.

Speaker 5

So what do you think the FED should be squarely focused on right now? Is the priority here stabilizing prices, bringing down inflation, or maximizing unemployment? Where do you think their eyes are fixed?

Speaker 8

I think well, I think they're pivoting to the unemployment picture, and they should be, and they should be and that should be the primary focus. To be honest, the inflation pictures already tackled. We're down at the long term range. The long term range for inflation is two and a half to three percent, going back all the way to the nineteen seventies.

Speaker 7

That's where it's been.

Speaker 8

The reality is I have a bit of an issue with this whole discussion because we're talking about the rate of change. Things aren't cheaper. Hamburgers are more expensive and they're going to stay more expensive.

Speaker 7

We all know this. Cars are more expensive, houses and more expensive.

Speaker 8

The rate of change calculation is what they target, and to be honest, the cumulative graph or inflation does this over time. So the idea that we've tamed inflation is a bit of a misnomer. It's just how the calculation's done. But unemployment is the real issue because if you have people that lose their jobs, that is a real toll in the psyche of Americans, and that's an acute problem

that is harder to solve. So I think, based on where the two year bond yield sits, they should lower rates, and they should be quick about it, and they should be more dynamic about it. And I think waiting too long presents serious risks to the US economy.

Speaker 2

If the FED is going to be in a rate cutting mode for the next twelve eighteen months, what do you own? What do you want to own?

Speaker 7

So I mentioned small caps.

Speaker 8

I think an area that is just primed to outperform are the regional banks. Let me give a couple comments on this. The price to books for regional banks. Some of these are trading back to where they were in March of twenty three during the banking crisis. No one's looking at this. Price to books are very attractive. But on top of that, you've got earnings growth in the mid teens fifteen sixteen percent. Some of these are growing faster than growth stock. So I'm getting price to books

at a discount earnings growth. And if that yield curve steepens, and it should and it should, they're going to print money. So those look very attractive. They're twenty percent of the Russell two thousand value. You can't get a small rally without the banks. You can't get a value rally without the banks. We've been in a decade growth market. I like regional banks here. I think they're prime. No one's looking.

They're growing big dividends, and the regulation going on with the Basle three requirements for big banks is going to level the playing field more for the smaller and mid banks.

Speaker 5

Well, let's stick with another sector that is very rate sensitive as well, real estate.

Speaker 3

What are you seeing there?

Speaker 7

I like real estate, but not all of it.

Speaker 8

Industrial routs look really attractive names like Proligious, Rexford, First Industrial, a couple of things on these They have massive structural tailwinds. I don't know about you guys, but Amazon keeps coming to my house pretty regularly.

Speaker 7

So those boxes are around the clock.

Speaker 8

So those, uh, those need to go through those logistical warehouses and ports. Those are strategic assets. These are some of these are trading at the biggest valuation discounts in a decade, namely Proligious as kind of a Hallmark company. Very juicy diviting yields. They're not at risk of being caught. Evaluations are attractive. Again, no one wants to really own real estate. They're non existent in the growth indexes.

Speaker 7

So I like that space a lot. I think there's major upside of these names.

Speaker 8

And you saw them move big on Friday, and they are a coiled spring. So when do you want to own real state? Ironically when capital gets turned off? So where are you avoiding?

Speaker 5

I mean you mentioned that there are opportunities you're looking at industrial, What about what areas?

Speaker 2

Are you a little.

Speaker 8

Bit so there are I would say that you know, if you look up and down the cap scale, and you look to where the opportunities. I would say that some of the growth areas are priced to perfection. You've got really high multiples, particularly in some of the semi names. I know those names are firing and all cylinders, and they look great. Broadcom is an example of that. It's

a great company, but you're paying a lot. And so I think that if you look at the market as a whole, some of the technology names are more expensive than I would argue people should pay for those multiples, and it makes sense the markets at all time high multiples. But that being said, there are plenty of technology names that still look good. Some of the software names look very interesting to us. Google is a name that we

really like here. You know, that's now one of the largest weights in the Russell one thousand values, So that's a value stock. I love how Frank Russell gets to decide what's in and out. But that's fine. But I think there's a lot of opportunity in that name as well. And they've got one of the best teams around Quantum ai Talent, and they're trading one of the lower multiples. Tons of cash, buybacks, dividends.

Speaker 7

Et cetera.

Speaker 2

For being like, yo, what you call in the bond market here? Where do you see opportunities if at all in the bond market.

Speaker 8

Well, I'm an equity guy. Guy, I'm an equity guy, so I won't motificate there. But what I'll say is I think that the equity income area of the market, namely those reachs we talked about those banks.

Speaker 7

If you think that rates are going to.

Speaker 8

Come down and you like bonds, and you should really like some of the equity income areas of the market.

Speaker 2

Great stuff is always John, Thanks so much for joining us, John Murray, cio at n FJ, giving you some good names there, some good thoughts on some themes there in the marketplace for a feed a reserve that looks like it's getting ready to cut us with us. More from Bloomberg Surveillance coming up after this.

Speaker 1

You're listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast. Catch us live weekday afternoons from seven to ten am Eastern Listen on Applecarplay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app, or watch us live on YouTube.

Speaker 2

It's time for the famous Lisa Matteo newspaper segment, Lisa, what.

Speaker 7

Do you got first?

Speaker 2

Today?

Speaker 7

Famous I'm excited.

Speaker 9

Okay, yes, Nora, welcome to newspapers. Okay, So the job market, right, we know for entry level workers, it's a little bit of a slump, right, But the Wall Street Journal actually has a story it says, not if you're in AI and you've experienced in machine learning. They're saying some of these kids in their twenty I call them kids, sorry, in their twenties, that many of them are making a million dollars a year. Okay, this is a new report.

It says base salaries for even non managerial AI workers zero to three years experience increase by abound twelve percent from twenty twenty four to twenty twenty. And they're also moving to management roles twice as fast as some of the other folks who are just doing regular you know,

software engineers. So there's a company called Data Bricks and they said, if you have a generative AI research scientists as little as two years experience, they can make a base salary between one hundred and ninety and two hundred and sixty thousand dollars there, and if you include the stock grants, it's even more.

Speaker 4

So.

Speaker 9

It just goes to show you, you know, exactly how much these students can make when they come out of college having these AI.

Speaker 3

Skills and what companies are looking for.

Speaker 2

It's crazy. So I mean, is there an AI degree or is it just I mean it's so new, I mean it's very nice. I guess it's machine learning versus software engineer. Correct? Correct, because a software engineer that's been this.

Speaker 5

It's like the next generation y software engineers and the next iteration here.

Speaker 9

Yeah, so that's the way to go, I know. Okay, So this one, I just want to say, I'm sorry kids before we get to the story. A school cafeteria staple. New York City public schools could be disappearing. We're talking about the chicken nugget.

Speaker 4

Guys.

Speaker 3

This is serious, Okay.

Speaker 9

No, but the reason why Okay, So there's these new food standards, right, they were announced this week. They go into effect July twenty twenty six. It's for like a dozen city agencies and that includes the Department of Education. So they want to do things like ban process meats like chicken nuggets, create new restrictions on artificial colors, preservatives, further limit those low calorie sweeteners, increase offerings of plant protein.

Speaker 2

So mayor Eric.

Speaker 9

Addams is saying, you know what, we're going to make New Yorkers healthier. You remember he tried that vegan Friday thing back in twenty twenty two.

Speaker 7

Didn't didn't kind of work out.

Speaker 3

He tried it.

Speaker 9

But a lot of educators are saying, you know what, the kids might not like this, and what if you have those picky.

Speaker 7

Eaters, what are they going to eat instead?

Speaker 9

Because now they're going to be hungry. So it's a it's a battle in the New York City public schools for the nugget.

Speaker 3

So they'll just you know, skip out on lunch. You're like, this is this is too healthy for me.

Speaker 5

I'm not gonna eat it, you.

Speaker 2

Know, because you do have the picky eaters. I know, I had one.

Speaker 9

I had one. He grew out of it, thank goodness. Okay, I gotta go to cracker Barrel Paul for you. Okay, all right, you know they went back to the original logo, right, but the New York Post is saying, now you have the workers. They're going on social media complaining about the company. Right, They're complaining about how much money they're making, their hours are cut back, and they're also complaining about fake homestyle cooking.

Speaker 2

So I'm not sure.

Speaker 9

Did you ever have the meat.

Speaker 3

Loaf when you were there? No, you never did the meat I did. I always get the pancakes.

Speaker 9

Well, you're traveling on the road, right, you're a crackerbll yay, let me try the meat loaf.

Speaker 7

Okay, So I did.

Speaker 3

It was okay.

Speaker 9

But what they're saying now is because they've been cutting back on kitchen staff. What the meat loaf actually is, it's off a truck, it's frozen, it's prepackaged and these sealed things. So all the basically workers do is they take it out of the steel package, pop it in the microwave, and there's your homestyle. So people are just

like going off about it. They're saying they're cutting back on their hours because they don't have to give him the health insurance benefits if they cut back their hours. But it's this whole back and forth now on social media. The company hasn't said anything about it, but it's this like continuing thing with with the restaurant.

Speaker 2

It's been in the headline, Yeah, it's been in the headlines. Crazy. The stock is up eighteen percent year to date, a lot of molatility. It's up fifty percent. You spoke to Mike Mike Helen yesterday and BlueBag Intelligence. He covers the restaurants for BI. He says, this management team is doing a great job. Wall Street loves.

Speaker 7

Them, yes, and even this whole absolutely.

Speaker 2

You can see it in the stock prices. He said, they weren't getting younger people. The older people that were complaining, and maybe or the people that are complaining on social media weren't the ones coming into the store. Interesting, So anyway, it's just a different take on what's going on there. All right, LEAs man tell you with the newspapers. Thank you so much.

Speaker 1

This is the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast, available on Apple, Spotify, and anywhere else you get your podcasts.

Speaker 7

Listen live each.

Speaker 1

Weekday, seven to ten am Eastern on Bloomberg dot com, the iHeartRadio app, tune In, and the Bloomberg Business app. You can also watch us live every weekday on YouTube and always on the Bloomberg terminal.

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