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Roth walks in and it's really wicked cold in your folks, I like it that way.
And the whole room heats up because she's working the terminal short like nothing. What do you see over there in the terminal, Stephanie Roth, Oh, this inflation report?
This shock?
I certainly, it certainly is a shock. I think the main thing that we have to remember is there is a lot of error in this report, so I would not take much away from this. A key thing that there's an issue with in the sense that when they're sampling the data specifically around November, that the survey period was condensed until later in the month when you typically
have significant holiday discounting. And when we spoke with BLS, they said they're not doing anything to adjust those seasonals, so that automatically makes the data artificially weak and we're probably going to see a bounce back in December.
Is there a trend we can take away from here that, boy, it's at least inflation is not going up from here.
Is that a fair takeaway? Maybe it's not cooling as much.
As these numbers might suggest, but it doesn't appear to be rising.
I think that's entirely fair.
Okay.
There was this concern that around the holiday season companies wouldn't really do the typical discounting that they usually do because of the tariffs. That doesn't appear to be the case, and we knew this heading into the data print because if you looked at a number of different indicators that survey the company is ahead of the holiday season, it showed a normal holiday discounting year. So it doesn't appear like there was this lapse in discounting just because of tariffs.
In fact, it was a typical year for discounting. And then on top of that, you have some of the issues within the data because of the government shutdown.
So Myron's been out here, Governor Myron, We've got a lower rates, a whole bunch of other people. There's been a clear tendency within Bloomberg's surveillance of people looking at a disinflationary tendency. Is it a January tendency or is it a FED meeting waiting out mid summer.
Yeah, I mean so I think I think what we'll see is inflation will bounce back in the next couple of prints, the economy will start to pick up again, in which case the Fed's probably going to be on hold for much of the beginning.
Of next year.
So again, so the Fed, I mean if you look at so you don't think the Fed's going to look at these numbers and say we've got inflation. I sure, hope not sure, because you think that data in the next couple of months could in fact show a little bit more inflation in the economy.
Yeah, And we know that there was a there was an issue.
I mean, it didn't even collect in the October CPI for the most part, we know that there are issues with the data. So to form a strong conclusion about this print up two as being some massive disinflationary period, I think is entirely inaccurate.
Stephanie Roth through this.
With a Wolf Research and we continue here Paul Sweeney and Tom Keane with Lisa Matteo and John Tuckler. Good Morning Across the Nation series XM Channel one twenty one, Good Morning Canada. I mentioned David Rosenberg up in Toronto with a disinflationary call.
Nailed that into this report on YouTube.
Subscribed to Bloomberg Podcasts, We're thrilled to finish twenty twenty five strong, humbled by the sign ups there each and every day at Bloomberg podcast Paul Sweeney was Stephanie rough.
All right, so we've got an inflation environment that's at least okay at this point.
How about the labor market.
What did you take away.
From some of the labor data earlier.
Yeah, I mean so, I think what we're seeing is a live market that's holding up a lot better and in fact starting to inflect a bit higher from here. And I think that's the main conclusion that we should take away from the headline jobs numbers. Let me replace the private payrolls numbers. The headline jobs numbers are impacted again by not necessarily the government shut down in particular, but the the third resignation program which ended into at
the end of September. These are people who took severance package. This is not people who lost their jobs. So if you look at the private payroll numbers, they were actually
quite decent. Now we're looking at, you know, a trend that's close to in the seventy thousand range, which is really not bad so and the effect the unemployment rate rose is less of a less of a concern, I think partially because there was again some issues with the government shut down impacting the data, and then in today's inflation data, the airlines were a big driver of the weakness and that there was also canceled flights.
There was just a lot going on in your first.
Look at the noises the airlines.
First look at the noises the airlines. They fell six point five percent over two months, so it comes out to about three percent each month. If you look at the you know, the core number was point one five nine across both months. That's you know, quite low. What peril was was pretty weak. That is probably tied to
this whole holiday discounting issue. So there's a lot of sort of noise within within the report, and part tied to the government shut down in port tied to the fact that it's just a sort of less inflationary backdrop.
North Fries of market higher features of forty now out of forty seven nansdeck up one point three half percent. The nansdack one hundred, I should say vict sixteen point eight three. You know, I look at this stuff, I look at the whole ballet of it all, and I am more than certain. I learned this from David Rosenberg at Merrill years ago, Merrill, Lynch, Pierce, Fenner, and Smith.
I saw an article that is just Meryl. I said, it will never just be maryl.
You just mentioned that the pros like you look at each line item. What did the service sector line items say? And the angst of a four to be in purchasing.
Power, utility bills, bills, the auto insurance. Can you see those in the report?
Yeah, we can see that in the report. Motor vehicle insurance looks pretty flat. Transportation services, lodging, all that stuff was pretty soft. It's hard to know to what extent this is government shutdown related. My senses it probably is, and we'll see a bit of a bounce back. And then on the good side, that was all pretty soft, outside of maybe some used.
Vehicles fed pick.
What do you think who should it be or who do I think it will be?
Book? We have time for both answers.
I would love to see Waller.
I think he'd be a great pick, and I think markets would really prefer to see Waller, who I.
Think is more likely.
It's probably more likely to be Hassett, although it does seem like incrementally over the past couple of weeks there seems to be some more concerns about Hasset, or at least more hesitation out of the White House for picking him.
Stephanie Roth, thank you so much for joining us.
Your commitment to surveillances appreciated of course, with the FED sides and other great moments.
Stay with us.
More from Bloomberg Surveillance coming up after this.
You're listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast. Catch us live weekday afternoons from seven to ten am Eastern Listen on Applecarplay and Android Otto with the Bloomberg Business app, or watch us live on YouTube.
We're gonna go to Emily Rowland right now.
She is a Johnny anecock and I just can't say enough Howard manual life. She has just said you have to participate. First of all, congratulations.
On the last three, four, five years. You've just absolutely killed the common sense nature of just own quality stocks. Any variants for next.
Year, No, Tom, I mean we have long recognized the fact that over time, stock prices follow profits.
It's pretty simple.
The challenge, of course this year is quality has honestly been left in the dust.
This year has been all about momentum.
It's been about technicals, it's been about finding a chart that's going on, checking out.
What does it signal to you that they've been left behind.
Well, it just signals that there just has been a sentiment driven market, whether it's political sentiment, whether it's sell US dollars and buy everything else, whether it's embrace Europe. I mean, look at things like Spain and the cosby this year. They're both up eighty percent. They are trading not like companies but almost like ticker symbols. So we've seen investors really be driven by sentiment. We've been getting out our old technical investing textbooks from years ago to
try to figure out what's going on. But I think there could be a bid for quality as we head into a trickier year in twenty twenty six.
Some concerns out there about a bubble around this whole AI story broadly defined and maybe just not in those seven names, but maybe more broadly in the market.
How do you think about that?
Yeah, I mean, there's no doubt about it.
The valuations are elevated around twenty two and a half times forward earnings.
Of course, the peak.
Historically was twenty five or But what we're really focused on is the denominator of the pe ratio, it's earnings. And the earnings engine in the United States is on. We have a lot of tailwinds in the next year. We've got the provisions from the one big beautiful Bill. We've got energy prices close to support here that helps consumers. So there's a lot going right for corporate America.
Okay, inflation comes at lower Yeah, and you're on Trush came in.
I don't know if you saw the report, but you know, way under three percent. Yeah, let's say we get a FED cut this time whenever, maybe when the red sox finally enter the free agent market whatever, I'm sorry. Money market funds, Paul, at what three point six percent? Yeah, they're going to be three point five percent? What does the John Hancock Manual Life Research of the emotion of money market funds coming down?
There is a love affair with money markets.
There are seven plus trillion dollars sitting in cash right now, and we think that those yields could disappear before your eyes into next year. The bond mark mart is just not sniffing out the disinflation that we see coming from the housing market. Just this morning, looking at the CPI report, it was still like groundhog Day. It was like the shelter component was still driving the bulk of the gains in CPI, even though we're at the lowest level since
twenty twenty one. The labor market's gotten more cracks in it than I would suggest. The official data is telling us that means bond yields lower. There's an opportunity right now to lean into the income that's available in high quality bonds. Investors won't do it. Our work suggests that people buy money market funds on mass until rates are zero.
We don't want that to happen.
Well A Sure, Paul Capital Economics publishes I love the PA I've never seen this, folks in humpteen years.
BLS reports hard to believe slum in delation exactly A sure needs more data exactly right.
Earnings earnings have been really solid in the last several quarters. Here are they strong.
Enough to support this marketing going forward, I.
Think, yeah, you know, analysts are penciling in fourteen percent earnings growth for the US next year. That is pretty lofty, but as I mentioned before, there are a number of tailwinds in place for corporate America. I would say, just building on the America theme, we have the best earnings growth of any companies globally in the United States.
You've seen that not be rewarded. This year.
The S and P five hundred up around fifteen percent. European equities are up twice that amount. Guess what their earnings growth is. It's low single digits. So what we've seen again is this sentiment driven trade.
Bringing it over.
European financial stocks are up almost sixty percent this year.
Their earnings growth is.
Left for a decade.
I mean, in your shot, sure, with your track record, what's the minimum timeline.
Our listeners and viewers should use. To me, it's three years. The media doesn't do that right, and Sweeney's out at seven years. But the answer is we're so the short termism is unreal.
Well, that's fair, but if you look at the economic growth picture, the macro is like on a different planet from what's going on in these markets. The US from an economic perspective is kind of like the clean of shirt and the dirty laundry. Right now, if you look at Europe, the data are coming in. I mean pmis, for example for the Eurozone at forty nine point two.
It's okay, but it's not.
I don't think it justifies a thirty plus percent return in Europe and eighty percent return in Spain. I think these markets have run a lot and need trim into strengthen too.
Next year.
Well, good one, Martin.
What do you do with dividends? Does that you play with you guys at all?
Or I like anything that has like the word income in it for next year? I think income over capital appreciation. The problem is that the dividend yield on the S and P five hundreds one point two percent right now, and the fact that you can get four to five percent in high quality bonds, I like that a bit better.
Okay, but you know, with a view of Trinity chops from old and new, John Hancock, Emily Rowland and Tom Keane worshiped at the altar of Margie Patel to Paul's great question is dividend growth and alternative to yield?
I think so.
I mean again, we like this kind of relative value play, and I think you're going to find those dividend growers in that bucket. It's value and quality at a reasonable price.
What a God's name of the Red Sox do? When I saw Bredman, we're the Patriots.
We're eleven and two, like unbelievable?
Are you in the Manual Life? Johnny Hancock's seats are fifty yard line?
Yeah right, those are for the clients. I wish, I wish.
Emily Roland, thank you so much. You should see the Red Sox tickets. It's just sick. She's with the Johnny Hancock company.
I should say Manual Life John Hancock to do it correctly, Emily Rowland, and she has been dead on about participating in the markets.
Stay with us. More from Bloomberg Surveillance coming up after this.
This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Listen live each weekdays starting at seven am Eastern on Applecarplay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station. Just say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven thirty.
We have a special tree for your folks. I want to frame this out as well as I can. You've got a really odd headline this morning of breaking news. I'm going to go right to the Bloomberg where we've got Trump Media to combine with a company you don't know.
Tae to build nuclear fusion business.
My family goes back in this derby over forty years to the Lawrence Livermore Lab and Paul the Endless Quest to squeeze two atoms and two nucleus together.
Dan Ives is quite good on this.
We're going to talk to him with web Bush about this combination before we talk to him about the state of mag seven and technology. Well, Dan, thank you so much for joining us on short notice. I go back decades on this. Fusion has been a hope and a dream forever. How is Donald Trump gonna finally get us over this fragile line of successful physics.
Yeah, I mean, look, I focus more like with THAE.
I remember they're backers because I know them from a fusion perspective.
Google, Chevron. Google and Chevron have been there, two major recent players.
Yeah, I mean, you know Goldman some others. Look, I think when it comes to nuclear fusion, what that's twenty five plus years of the Maxwell winners, the Nobel winners that they've had here.
So I've always viewed this is gonna be.
If there's a winner in the US and global nuclear fusion, it's Tha.
So I think that's at the centerpiece of this whole deal.
It's much more about Thae and my view than in terms on the Trump angle that's always the political backing.
Is this an arms race, if you will, a fusion race with China. We saw what they did with electric vehicles, your conversant in China and AI, the Nvidia chip debate in that Is this like getting out in front of China catching up a nuclear fusion.
That's what it's all about.
I mean, I think you know me and you've talked about this and you know on the show this is an arms race first China. I mean, everything they're focused on is going in two thoy thirty, how they fuel AI, arms ors technology. US is way ahead of China because of the Vidio, because of Microsoft, because of Palentinger and others.
Energies are scarce.
The guy I've always said, like energy is going to be the big scarcy in nuclear has to be the play. You know, obviously there's AKA and others, but this will clearly be the first fusion public play.
So Dan, I think most people understand the Trump Media Company as a media play, a digital media play, if you will, Can you tell us about TA because most of us don't know a whole lot about Tha.
Yeah, and again, Thae I think is the centerpiece of the whole deal.
I mean, even though it's a merger, it's it's really about TAM I view. I think, look, when you look, this is what twenty five, twenty eight years, you know, most of out of California they've built I think it's about five you know, sort of you know, but I'll say few successful fusion buildouts this is one.
I think it's five Nobels, so many.
Maxwell's, you know, in terms of from scientists that have been through their schwab backing, you know, it's kind of who's who in terms of what they've had back. But this has really been one coming out of the cow system science community, and that's always what it was known as.
It was always sort of a gem in the science community. Yeah, I noticed Jeff Immil was a former board member.
But with TAE, folks to see Eugene mondays there it was just absolutely definitive across all political lines of America. Doctor Moneys, of course associated with MIT they let's say Dan as a statement, Tae has a heavyweight board, but you got to get something done. Going back to Lawrence Livermore lab ages ago, it's a lot of theory, it's a lot of politics, including the Advance Act accelerating deployment
of versatile advanced nuclear for clean energy. It sounds like an episode Dan Iisa gets Smart, except you're too young to remember Get Smart.
But the answer is, is there any indication fusion will work? Oh? I think that's that's you don't do this deal. But you don't think this is going to work.
I mean, if you look with Tae is done, it's not just I think like the best bet from a US perspective and even global relative to energy. And clearly there have been obviously so many starts and stops when it comes to fusion. But I do believe this is one where when you look at breakthroughs combined with what you'd get from a capital perspective.
Because we've alreays said like that's part arms raised. That's why this would be such unique combo. You know, Paul this is great.
I want to thank the Kliman Center for Energy Policy at the University Pennsylvania for getting me up to speed on this. They got a chart in here from Sorbone nineteen fifteen, a proposed power plant.
It looks like the set of Silo, right, I mean that's what yeah, I did, Lanman in hydrocarbons. The fusion thing looks like the set of Silo's.
Exactly what Dan from Ta East perspective. Why are they merging with Trump's media president Trump's media company?
I think probably two reasons, right, I mean one capital, I'm I think Trump you will get what two two and a half billion cash and you know, bigcoins your capital you get right away if you did this right as I suppose, if it just merged into just a.
Regular spot, they'd have no capital. So that's one.
And obviously it's political backing, right, I mean implied relative Trump administration.
It's a essentially kind of them picking the winner more or less. I think that's how it be viewed.
Dan.
Let us migrate over to technology right now. Of course, it's a day to day thing. My book of the Summer, I think a year ago, two years ago is chip War. It was just a fabulous book and Shipwoark showed how discrete and apart Micron of Idaho is. They're really really good at making simple technology simple semiconductors and such. Dan, iives, what did you glean from the Micron optimism we saw yesterday?
Look, I mean you talk about like the right news at the right time relative to nervousness Oracle data center, you know, and obviously a lot of the war is about the build out. Look that is just for the validation demand, the supply ten to one, right, twelve to one. It just shows what's happening in terms of these AI buildouts, and of course Nvidia and aim the another Micron is obviously front and center relative to you know what I kind of view as the core sort of you know,
barometer relative to these AI buildouts. And I think that's investors are going to view this. I think it's come some nerves.
Especially given where we are with the lack of news relative to companies coming to pulse. That's the huge thing here.
You've experienced this too, the lack news pop Microme in the last ten years. Yeah, it's just appalling thirty three point two percent per year.
Yep, that's what the recent moonshot.
Hey, Dan, just with this deal with TAE today just highlight for us again kind of what to what extent will power and access to power and the grid be maybe a headwind for this AI rollout in development.
Look, I mean.
Today three percent of companies have gone down the AI path. I mean you get the twenty percent you don't essentially have enough power. So obviously right now in terms of a grid solar that's going to be sort of important in terms of stop gaps.
But but to me, the only way you get there is nuclear.
And like I've said, like nuclear has to be the answer, and you have a clean energy right when it comes to fusion, like this is gonna be the bet you got to make big bets quick and obviously ta in my own view in the US that that continues to be probably the best bet we have.
I have real trouble with this, Dan, because I've seen decades and decades and decades of Yeah, we're gonna do it, We're gonna do it, cross our.
Fingers, hope to die, We're gonna do nuclear fusion.
In your research, I mean, people don't realize this, but away from the camera, lives actually works short. Yeah, do you see imminent research where someone at Google and Physics can say this stuff is gonna work.
Yeah.
I mean, look, I don't think Google, Chevron, you know, Gold, and I think many other tech players that you know that have looked at this company, they're not doing it if nothing's happened.
I mean, I truly.
Believe like they've had breakthroughs, which is what's unique after obviously decades and decades, like you've said, coming out of labs of the theory, but not actually being able to scale.
Dan.
I so this is what Bush. We continue this morning. We welcome all of you across at the nation, around the world. Good evening on the Pacific rim a place for mister Ives visits often. Good evening over to India as well, Tom Kane and Paul Sweeting.
Dan, what's the as you think about twenty twenty six and you travel a lot, meeting with institutional investors, meeting with companies within the tech space, what's kind of the number one talking point for twenty twenty six.
I think it's ultimate.
It's modernization of AI, right, In other words, it's to build out what the use cases look like, not just on the enterprise and on the consumer side, and it will get to race right like from Meta to Microsoft to you know whoever.
From a cap backs perspective, that continues to be.
The focus demondization, and I think that's really going to define the winners.
Qicklear, Dan, I've I got January twenty ninth of next year twenty six, twenty twenty six Microsoft earnings.
I agree with you, Dan. Part of the angst here is an information vacuum.
What's the information you're going to see it four fifteen in the afternoon, January twenty ninth from MSFT.
I think it's the monization from Azure and what you see from AI. I think the reality is is that thirty percent of the Microsoft deals are track and have been accelerated when it comes to AI over the last few months. So as that plays out and the forecast plays out and they reiterate their cap backs, I think it's further validation that when it comes to the enterprise, Microsoft is going to be the core winner.
When it comes to AI.
I think that to get the nuclear fusion thing over the line, they got to merge dan ives Bright Pink and bright Green jackets together.
That'll get you there. The entropy to get us to a successful fusion Dan ives stay with us.
More from Bloomberg Surveillance coming up after this.
This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Listen live each weekday starting at seven am Eastern on Apple Coarclay, and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station. Just say Alexa, play Bloomberg eleven thirty digitally.
She's here today with the newspapers.
Now, I want to start with this because we have a few headlines about the Warner Brothers deal. First, you have the Wall Street Journal right there talking about how Warner Brothers wants more info about the use of an Ellison family trust to backstop that deal because a big part of that trust is Oracle shares, and Warner wants Larry Ellison to give this stronger personal guarantee that he
and not the trust, is committed to the bid. And then you have the Financial Times reporting that a Warner Brothers shareholder is reaching out to an investor to acquire all our part of it's cable TV ascids, CNN, CNN, tn T Discover like all those all those it's said it's Sue Kim, founder of New York hedge funds Standard General. He's been in talks apparently for buying investing in the television networks and he's done.
TV deals before.
Yeah.
Well, Bloomberg's Matt Levine's his Money Stuff column yesterday goes to this whole revocable trust from the Ellison really explains it. It's basically saying, hey, revocable trust has it's gota jillions of dollars of Oracle stock, but at any point in time that can be removed from the trust, and then the trust has got no value. And then you're like, Okay, well, where's my backstop, mister Ellison. And that's kind of where
the Warner Brothers board is here. They're saying, we need the we need mister Ellison's personal guarantee in some form for this.
We had to go. It's Lisa's newspaper segment.
But Paul, are we surprised at the I'm going to say modest valuation of the traditional TV product?
Yeah, the cable network businesses are being it's like teen sweets and it's almost who cares. It's just you know, I get Lisa, I mean Laura Martin from Yeah, she just said shut them down, just turn them off off the likes Lisa next.
Please all right, this is an interesting look into the housing market. This was in the journal. How more wealthy renters are customizing their spaces and the landlords.
Are okay with it.
They even encourage it sometimes.
I mean, we're talking about those who spend between twenty thousand and fifty thousand a month, you know, for a luxury single family home or apartment. So they spoke with realtors who say the landlords are okay if it increases the value. More and more people are doing it. They gave the example of a three bedroom condominium. These owners bought it in Lennox Hill and they paid about fourteen point eight million, but their renters paid fifty thousand dollars
a month to rent it. They made two million dollar renovation when they moved into. The renters did so it's showing how much they're putting into it.
I don't know, just that bizarre doesn't capture it. It's just strange they're renting it. What's the taxes on fourteen million dollars? Oh gosh, yeah, then there's that. So this is more than just throwing a coat of pain at it.
No, it is it's getting new bathrooms, like redoing the kitchen, like getting and putting up wallpaper, which you know is tough to take down, so all that kind of stuff. They're just redoing the house to their likings, and the landlord's okay, if it increases.
Their value, you go, okay, that was painful, and this one okay.
So we talk about birth rates falling, but there's new research out there because a lot of people blame, oh, well, people want pets and they're doing that instead of having kids. You know, they're pushing the pets around in the carriages and dressing them up like kids.
That's that's what we're dealing with.
But now there's this new research that say, actually having a pet can make people want to become parents more.
They did this study in tai w.
With the birth rate is one of the lowest in the world, and that's what they're showing is that pets aren't replacing babies, are actually pre seating them. So really it's more like a trial run. I guess you could say, why why they have the dogs first and then they have the kids after, So it's not in replace of it's.
Just like the kennel fee for kennel fee.
Yes, it's like like a.
Precursor for child.
So you should have had the pets first before the kids, and then you realize how expensive they are.
The latest battle was Paul, should the dogs have the little booties on as they walk around out right?
Yeh, nothing. We don't have the booties. The boy, we don't. We don't do the booties.
I've seen the booties.
They're very cute, they're very social.
I've got some of their sweaters out. You know that Bill is very festive. But we didn't go with the booties.
The newspapers, Lisa Matteo, always interesting, always entertaining.
This is the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast, available on Apple, Spotify, and anywhere else you get your podcasts. Listen live each weekday, seven to ten am Eastern on Bloomberg dot Com, the iHeartRadio app, tune In, and the Bloomberg Business app. You can also watch us live every weekday on YouTube and always on the Bloomberg terminal