Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. Single best idea to the end of the most original summer. I think I can editorialize and say for each and every American, for all of you around the world, it has been absolutely exhausting day by day. Whatever your politics, whatever your beliefs, whatever your investment, walk in life, it has been extraordinary. A major shout out to the surveillance team who got me through it and got all of us through it.
And we're stilled and ready to get into the end of the third quarter. Maybe a government shut down I think in October sometime and on to Q four. It's an adventure each and every day. It's good to start strong. With a brief from wind Thin. He is of Burma. He is definitive PhD from Colombia under Robert Undel, iconic at Brown Brothers Harriman, and he's taken a new challenges for the Bank of Nassau in the Bahamas. Win Thin on the Pacific rim and international economics.
Daman, there're a long time m guys, so we've seen this've been there, done this. It never ends well. Turkey's tried to do this that it had finally reversed course you mentioned Argentina. I've lost count. I can't you know, lost count how many examples? So it's pretty much show that you know, you graph independence, degrees of independence versus inflation. It's uh, it's it's totally coordinated. We all know what the law of unintended consequences. We can go down the list,
the immigration, the tariffs, Russia. There, they're just yielding so many things that can go wrong. And the more sort of risks that pile up, the more I think the tail, the tail gets fat and fatter.
Uh, and I do worry about that win thin there and the quantitative finance and the tails are take a B curve of your high school class height. There's a median number out of the tips of the shortest people, out of the tips of the tallest people, there's a tail. And under stress those tails they get thicker if you will get they get thicker, they get higher if you will.
And that's what Wyin Thinn was talking about there. The risks into Q three and Q four did a lot of economics today, each and every person with a different opinion. Francis Donald came in with a really interesting weaker GDP but also somewhat tepid inflation as well. She gets an animal spirit decent nominal GDP. But it's a complex mix here, Francis Donald.
We have what we call a stagflation light type of outlook, which is growth that is comfortably low but not collapsing. So that's one where one you know, between one and two percent top. The problem is the inflation side of this sphere, which is that we continue to see above two percent inflation and getting it as high in the next six months is three point four on both the CPI and the PCI number. So you're seeing this phenomenal tension in the US economy. And what worries me about
it is that it's not particularly aggressive. It's not pandemic level inflation that calls for clear policy response. It's a very nefarious, uncomfortable, muddle through type of environment. And this, I think is going to continue to dominate a lot of the conversations and make it difficult to say we're early,
mid or late cycle. When you say it's difficult to see, what I hear is that this way of thinking about the economy as being in a business cycle is getting substantially distorted by tariffs, by inequalities by government spending and so reading that stories and what you've got.
Francis Donald of RBC Capital Markets. Indeed, she says, it is mysterious. We are stealed and ready to have good conversations for you into September and on to the end of twenty twenty five on podcast on Apple, on Spotify and on YouTube podcasts. It's single best idea