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The single best idea out on YouTube podcast I'm an old fart, so I thought Apple podcast was like completely monopolizing the podcast market for twenty twenty four. Tom Keene was wrong, wrong, wrong, Coming on strong as YouTube podcasts, I've been looking at it more and more, and I have to admit, you know, Joe Rogan's at the top. I don't know why I'm not, but there it is.
It's YouTube podcasts, and with all we're doing on YouTube, I really have to mention that here for single best idea, what do we got to get a great city guest? Today it's a holiday lengthened work week, three day three days Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday. I'm off Friday. Paul Sweeney leading the charge on Friday, which will be important, but huge
day Wednesday of economic data as well. We've beginner to the politics this market lift that we saw with the announcement of a Treasury Secretary designate that I guess made Wall Street happy. Wendy Schiller of Brown University the Tounman Center on our politics forward.
The statements will be bold magnitude and the product will be very gradual because the bureaucracy is, you know, pretty much invented by Thomas Jefferson.
That's what we got the name.
Bureau lots of drawers bureaucracy.
I think that's what.
You're going to see. You're going to see lots of statements. But moving this behemoth that is the federal government is a very slow and difficult process. Even while Reagan couldn't be as successful as he wanted, he couldn't get rid of the Department of Education, for example. So I think you'll see lots of broad statements. I think the impact will be slow. But the problem with the Republicans.
If it's too slow, you bump right up against twenty six.
So the Republicans need to get whatever pain is going to happen has to happen this year, not next year.
Wendes's Schiller there, and I will. This is something we'll talk with our political team about. Is David Gerra back from Brazil. I don't he's back, like came into the Gulf stream last night three fun filed days after the g twenty meetings. But we'll talk to David Gerra and look at his big take I should point out as well. We'll talk to mister Gurra about this whole timeline thing.
And what I read over the weekend from numerous sources is the president elect doesn't have to get elected again, or I believe every House member has to get elected again, and the third of the Senate has to get elected in two years. It's an amazing dynamic. That was brilliant from Wendy Schuler. Thank you for the love notes and hate notes. I'm Professor Schuler. They do fill up the inbox.
Francis Donald with us very popular, really a completely dance note on the state of the American economy, issues of the RBC capital markets at Royal Bank of Canada. She comes out of Montreal, joined us in the studio today. Francis Donald on immigration.
I'm frankly more focused on immigration policy than I am on tariffs. Okay, tariffs are a price level shock. We got a playbook for tariffs. We generally know what happens. Every economist with their salt knows a ton about washing machines from twenty eighteen. But that's not what's going to keep an economistep at night. That's a one time inflation shock. What worries us is labor supply shortages. And persistent wage growth. That's the type of more nefarious inflation that creeps in
and requires much higher interest rates. And we are heading into a period where we expect to see well, no, we've already seen record retirements, record retire We have three retirees for every one new entrant looking for work in the United States. It is really sweat.
Why it is that? What's the why on that's stunning statistics.
It's just demographics. Tom, people get older, they retire.
COVID, No, they do.
Really, that's what happens. It's hard for us to accept, but no, it's demographics, and we you know, my whole life. Demographics is something that we thought about as being relevant over a five to ten twenty year horizon. It is relevant in twenty twenty five. It's also why that unemployment rate is staying very low. It's mechanically pushing down and it puts pressure on the FED.
Francis Donald at URBC, I can't say enough about this, folks, And it's really overlooked within media, within the zeitgeist. Demographic economics. The Laureate Angus Deaton is so good on this and others. It's sort of a British thing. You go to like London School of Economics, Cambridge, Oxford, Bristol, Durham, and they live an overarching demographic study of economics. It folds into nominal GDP, it folds hugely into product activity. Francis Donald
there on. That's stunning. Three to one ratio study of retirement as well. There's no retirement here. We get Tuesday, very busy day. Wednesday's a ginormous economic day as we move in America to the Thanksgiving holiday. On YouTube podcast on Apple podcasts. This is the single best idea