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Single best idea and a theme that just came to me. Trust me. We wanted to go out to McKinsey or Bain to consult on what the theme should be to the end of the year. We didn't do that. I just came into my little puny head here somewhere between from the food court. Should I have the almonds or the dried apricots and the answers I went with both this morning, and with that I came up with a theme,
this great bullmarket. Now I'm not predicting a continued bullmarket, but the humbling sense from December of twenty eighteen with Ben Ladler's great call at HSBC get on board, buy equities, and I'll bring it out to another crystal clear moment. Autumn of two thousand twenty two were separately and for different reasons, ed Yard Denny and ralph An Kompora the legend of technical analysis. Denny and ankorpor are said, for different reasons, get on board. Remember that after the pandemic
that in October twenty twenty two. So here we are. I don't want to appine in the market, but the basic idea is talk to people informed. Waylee, is it Blackrock Global strategists there with prodigious mathematics skills look for her on LinkedIn. It's a reason just you know, get organized on LinkedIn to look for way Lee w E I l I waylea of black Rock on the View Forward.
I asked her about David Conston's report at Golden Sachs modeling out a regression to the mean bringing single digit returns forward from this great bull market down to an annualized three ish low single digit percentage point. Waylee disagrees.
We actually took an inspiration from that analysis to try to understand if the measure of concentration, which is to look at the market cup of the biggest company versus the seventy fifth personel and look at that racial right by that measure, us a credit market is close to the most concentrated in almost one hundred years, and we try to understand, okay, that concentration does it have significant varying on subsequent market return over twelve months, over ten years.
The verdict of that analysis, inspired by the research, a piece of research that you're referring to, is that over the very near term horizon, let's say, investing for twenty twenty five, concentration doesn't have significant bearing and over the longer term in a mean revert environment then it has significant varying. But we're not in the mean revert environment. So we continue to think that erniest can come through.
For next year, we're looking at high single digit return expectation, and there is reason in the context of US exceptionalism for US to lean more into US equities, which is what we're doing for this outlook.
I can't say enough, folks, that idea of not mean reversion sets up the arch debate forward for those of you in the bull market or those of you seeing this great bull market from a distance, the idea that we're not going to mean revert to some lower frame and that we're going to come in higher and then you know what the pro say is high single digits, low single digits, but those are huge percentage changes to participate over two years, three years, five years, and ten years.
Way Lee of black Rock, and we continue where they're here very quickly, wayly on what you don't own enough of mag seven.
Meg seven multiple is thirty times and at the beginning of twenty twenty two it was thirty five times. At the inception of chat GBT late twenty twenty three two it was twenty five times. So it is expensive, but it's not extremely expensive. There are good reasons earn is momentum that supports those valuations, you know, like MI revert. If we're talking about an index that has become more growthy in nature over time, then the meme needs to
reflect the more growthy nature of the benchmark. So we continue to like MAXI seven, but we have broughten out how we play the AI theme.
Wayly of black Rock and again a greater dandem to this. The one I think of that's equally engaged in LinkedIn is Urine timor over at fidelity. The value of reading not glancing at but reading Urine timor t I M M E r Urine timor Fidelity and wayly of black Rock out on LinkedIn. Folks, you'd have to pay a ten thousand dollars fee just to have a cup of senca with either of them. Within the reality of Global Wall Street. I can't say enough about Whaley's value add
on black Rock out on LinkedIn. All I can say is this podcast is building. Frankly, it's been off my radar, but we're going to promote it very much so in the new year, we say thank you to all of you on your commute across the nation on Applecarplay, Android Auto Serious XM Channel one twenty one. Had no idea how big that audience was. Good morning in the quarter of ninety ninety one Washington, Bloomberg eleven three to zero in New York at ninety two nine in Boston. Please
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