Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news, the single best idea. It has been an extraordinary day. I want to start with something I have never seen. I've been doing this for four or five six years, and I've never ever
seen what we saw today. And as we tape this single best idea at our world headquarters, I want to make clear that there is speculation and rumor and uncertainty, but I do think I can paint for those of you across the nation and quite frankly, at worldwide, as we see Russia in a prisoner swap reported by our Jennifer Jacobs with allies including the United States. I've seen numbers, thank you Moscow Times at twenty to thirty people to telegraph as that statistic. I believe Jennifer Jacob has it
as well. The partition that occurred this morning between TV and Frankly us to an extent reporting the rumors, the speculation, the minimal facts that Jennifer Jacobs had in front of her, and the newspapers in America which had a thundering silence. And this was this nuance here of released or to be released. And it really goes down to the nuance the fears in the tension that you see within a prisoner swap. I've never seen it like I saw it on this Thursday in Russia and across Europe and America
as well. We had wonderful guests. I can't say enough about it. What a generous conversation with Waylee on China her stunning statistic that she looks for a three percent handle she and Blackrock, I should say, look for a three percent handle of economic growth at some point. That's game changing for the Pacific rims say the least, but also with price up and yield down between long maturity and short maturity. Wayly of black Rock, well, if.
You look at the hedge fund positioning, absolutely a lot of the speculative positions went from short bombs to long bonds. But I would observe that from the end of the curve has done better than the back end of the curve, so mainly in response to kind of markets pricing in more cuts. But our concern for the back end of the curve, especially over a longer temp horizon, still stays, which is a higher fiscal trajectory, higher term premier which currently is still in the negative territory.
And literally as I take this wayly of black rock there with a four point zero two four point zero three ten year yield. Literally we take this, folks. For those of you that know in New York City, they have a special bunker below home Depot where we tape all of my work. Also the surveillance caskets down there as well. Someday we'll be needing that. But the answer is, moments ago we saw three point nine nine percent on
the ten year yield. That is remarkable. A single best idea of shout out to Bob Michael of JP Morgan and his team that have had that tendency. Others as well, David Rosenberg up in Toronto, but a special shout out to Ian Lincoln of BEMO Capital Markets who's just been absolutely brilliant on the movement of yield lower the ten year yield moments ago. Here Thursday, let me get the surveillance watch out you see, it's got Charlie Brown on it. Ten oh two am is where we see the three
point nine nine percent yield. What's it going to do to your mortgage rate? The mortgage rate is something that FED looks at a lot of criticism. Cam Harvey at Duke University was really something that they heated and hisism of the FED. We've had generous time with a former vice chairman of the Federal Reserve System at Richard CLARIEDA. He, of course, of Columbia University and excuse me advising at PIMCO,
and well, there's a lot to talk about. And what we talked about in the fedicides and what we talked about this morning was the difference everybody's happy in an agreement at the American Federal Reserve System, where at the Bank of England they argue five to four decision today, Richard CLARIEDA, on the descent of the Bank of England.
Well, I will say that the Bank of England is certainly beginning with my good friend and mentor Mervin King thirty plus years ago. It was a point of pride that their culture did not discourage dissense. And indeed, I think there was one or two meetings when Mervin was out voted. In this case it was five to four. But when the chief economist votes it definitely it gets
the headline. Sure, there are descents at the FED during my time, we had several meeting where there were three descents, but it is the case that in the post green spanning and era that you refer to or green span and then post green span descents among governors have been pretty rare on monetary policy. And that's an entire another show we could. I won't spend time talking about why that is.
You may come back tomorrow, Okay, well, okay, Richard Clarita, maybe we'll get him for day three and do a hat trick of great economic perspective. Can't say enough about some of the distinguishing features of former Federal Reserve officials. Major shout out to Bill Dudley, who graced us with his presence for the FED Decides. Bill Dudley with that essay ten days ago and Bloomberg Opinion heated the FED
should act. Now we hope you act. By subscribing to YouTube Bloomberg Podcasts is the best way to get all of our good conversation on Apple car Play and on Android Auto as well, and on Ample podcasts. It's single last idea