Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio news, single best idea seven conversations Today Today was incredibly strong given the news flow, just absolutely extraordinary. Eric Wasson of Bloomberg and Washington was just absolutely lights out about what now for Washington and our fractured political process. We thank Eric Wasson on a huge schedule issues with the twenty four to seven Washington
News for being with us as well. Sam Stove all over CFRA talking bubbles in the stock market really quite good. He's enthused. He's looking for higher prices, not like what we heard yesterday on S and P five hundred, going from sixty eight hundred to seventy seven hundred according to Infrastructure Associates, CFRA looks for seventy four hundred, a little less aggressive number out nevertheless optimistic. But then you have to know where the GDP statistic is. Tiffany Wilding doesn't
know where that is. Here's Tiffany Wilding, a PIMCO.
The shutdown will absolutely impact fourth quarter growth. We think that one one to one and a half percent is what it could shave off of the fourth quarter. So we absolutely could see a negative fourth quarter GDP print. But nevertheless, as the government has already reopened, that activity will come back online and you'll see an offsetting pickup
in the first quarter of next year. I think the other thing to keep in mind in the first quarter is that you're also going to get refund checks to households that are quite large this year, so that will provide also some support to the economy and to consumption in the first part of next year.
That is a reoccurring theme. Let's pause for that, Tiffany Wilding mentioning refund checks of some type. There was legislation in the distant pass of sixteen months ago, guessing and that legislation, to many of our guests is nothing more than stimulus. There's an overlay out. I think of Alicia Levine at BNY mel And talking about the overlay of
legislative impulse of stimulus into the American economy. That's one of the cross currents here, all wrapped around, of course, thisnknown unknown of technology and AI, and I'm using AI more and more each and every day. My favorite people ask me what am I using at Bloomberg. I'm using a lot of Google Gemini. That seems to be what we're circling around here. We've got other things as well, and you know, on my phone and such, I use perplexity. Thank you to Tom Sekunda, one of our founders, who
said to me, shut up. Tom used perplexity, and I'm really enjoying it's making me smarter and better each and every day. We were smarter and better at the start of the show today from Atlanta. Really excellent. I need to take a moment here. Keith Lerner is a trust and what's so important about what he brings to the conversation is he has degrees with a Chartered Financial Analyst and the Market Technicians CMT designation as well. So this
is someone that dovetails in fundamentals and technicals into his analysis. Forward. Keith Lerner on the view forward.
What we try to do to try to keep it simple and focus primarily on the trends, the primary trends. So I try not to do like all the crazy stuff. What really matters, cut to the noise, and what matters to me as I look at the global pictures, we have a global rally underway. We have ninety percent of ninety percent plus of global markets in uptrends above the twenty day movement average. And thinking about yesterday, we're seeing like maybe tech takes a little bit of a breather.
There's rotation to other areas, and we have the EFI Index making a new high, Emerging markets close to an all time high as well. So I think the primary trend is positive, and I think the main message is you have to continue to give that primary trend and the benefit of the doubt.
Keith Lerner with Truest of Atlanta and of course across the nation as well, on your podcast on Apple, on Spotify, on YouTube podcasts. Its single best idea