Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news.
The single best idea, which is to do it one hour podcast. We're not going to do that. We're going to keep it six minutes. We like doing a short podcast. I think it really fits in with what everybody else is doing out in global podcast world and all that. But what a day. We had endless conversations that were very rich about the mystery of what we're living in now, linking economics to finance, linking finance to investment, with an
overview of international relations. Joe Matthew was on from balance of power with a real understanding of the mystery of the next thirty days for the White House, so many moving parts. There is a president gears up a campaign, and the candidate for the other side gears up endless days in a courtroom in New York. We'll move on from that to good conversations. One of them today was Terry Weisman. As I mentioned in the interview, the heritage here is back to bear Stearns and back to the
development there. Larry Cudlow was the chief economist there, and then in came David Malpass and John Writing and Terry Weisman, and it was just really just an outstanding, always thought provoking discussion out of bear Stearns. This is ancient history. He's now Macquarie, the Australian Shop and Terry Weisman was just on fire and it was the why of the hope, the prayer or the consequences of a weaker dollar.
The bear case for the dollar, if there's a structural one, is that the dollar will no longer be at some point, and no one knows when the world's reserve currency. Now, we are already seeing signs that this is manifest. We see, of course, we see China accumuly gold. Well, that's telling you that they may not like the dollar anymore. We certainly see the Russians moving away from dollar reserves. We've seen the Venezuelans do that now the Bowld case for
the dollar as well. You can dismiss these countries because they're you know, part of this, I don't want to say access of evil obviously, but they're not on the same side of the fence as the US. But to the extent that we get a bipolarity in this world and we really get a true a new Berlin Wall that goes up between the West and the rest, you have to imagine that that's going to be bad for the dollar, because the dollar has benefited in this era
of globalization. Anything that tends to reduce the amount of globalization tends to be bad for the dollar, and that new Berlin Wall would be bad for the.
Dollar, Doctor Weisman from Acquarie. They're really thought provoking, and a lot of people are worried about this of losing our exorbitant privilege. Thank you to Berry chen Green of Berkeley over de velor as you started to staying in France decades ago for this idea of the exorbitant privilege we have in that so much of global business is done in US dollars. I should point out the IMF doing some world class work on dollar ascendancy and resiliency.
Another conversation with it. First of all, Jeff Hugh was just lights out from BNY Mellon on the international sense and particularly on Weekyen. Meghan Robson was wonderful from BMP Perry Bob parsing through the different credit and particularly what big tech would do in tech issuance. Here. She didn't really think Apple or Microsoft would issue a lot of debt because of where the coupon is right now, but that was thought provoking. Excuse me, that's the single best idea. Gasp.
Michael Darta with Roth Capital Markets was just on fire today about something he's champion for years, going back to his work with Judewininski a lifetime ago, and that was the idea of how you get to nominal GDP above four percent. Let's do the math with Michael Darta.
If the underlying trend for the productive potential of the US economy is still around two in the FED has an inflation target of two that they're serious about, then top line growth is going to have to be curtailed and constrained to about a four percent pace. If productive potential is faster than that, you know, then we're we can enjoy faster nominal GDP growth. But that's that's very
uncertain at this point in time. If you look at the tracking estimates or Q one GDP, you know, the expectation is two and a half to three real and a three percent GDP price deflator, so five and a half to six nominal. If four percent is sort of that's going to be too that's going to be too hot for the FED.
Taed to that piece to your brain, go back and re listen to it here on single best idea and understand that this is pretty much foreign. We live in a real GDP environment, even though business and all of you live in a nominal environment of how much does that Hamburg cost this week at the meat counter. That's a nominal world. Fascinating conversation with Michael Darta of where we are now at five and six percent, some would say that's a boom economy, and any number of different opinions.
One final shout out today Stephen Stanley at Santander was just absolutely fabulous about the heritage of the Richmond Fed in his work at Chicago. And William and Lee Washington and Lee I should say as well, get William and Mary in Washington. They're like, you know, they're in the same zip code. William and Mary and Washington Lee mixed up. We're on an Apple car Play Android play. I've got some nasty notes. We're on Android. We're not an Apple car play. Okay, Well, all we cares. You use the
Bloomberg Business app. Download it's free and listen to us on Apple car Play or at Android humble by that build out on YouTube search Bloomberg Podcast look for Lisa Matail. That's the easiest and most lovely way to get to S and of course on Apple on our podcast. It is single best idea