Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news, single best Idea and we welcome all of you. Of course, big big week here earning start tomorrow. We'll have full coverage of the major bank earnings and so much other news flow as well. We thank Rob Carroll and particularly our Bloomberg meteorologist every time he's on. I learned of the geography, the topology, the weather of this disaster in l A great set of guests today. We started early today with Stuart Kaiser,
a city group always looking at equities. Some enthusiasm there, but then we talked to Stuart Kaiser about yield.
If you think of the term structure, we would say the two year yield is about Fed policy. The third year yield there's more about inflation. The tenure yield and our view reflects more growth expectations. So the fact that the tenure has moved, yes, it's a bit of a
risk because it's moved quick. You would be a lot of that's coming from the growth side of things, payrolls last week in particular, And in that sense it's not necessarily as bad for equity markets as a lot of people are concerned about.
Stuart Kaiser, City Group and again looking at the equity market, so you notice the pullback and maybe with a yield, still some enthusiasm for earnings. And again we dive into that earning season tomorrow, and not just about the banks. It will be an eventful three four in even five weeks as well. We talked to Stephen Stanley. He's at Santander. He is an award winning economist, really really good at the granular nature. Here's Stephen Stanley on the American economy.
I think that the economy is likely to be slower in the near term, and I think the easy explanation
for that is that businesses are uncertain. We've got a lot of policy questions to be resolved, and so I think a lot of businesses that probably, even though they've we've seen business optimism pick up, I think businesses are sitting on the sidelines waiting to see So I think for me, the first half of twenty twenty five should be the slowest period, and then as we get certainty on policy, I think things start to pick up again. The question really is are we getting a slow down
in the labor market. Last Friday's numbers would say no. You know, I would argue that we're still slowly seeing job growth moderate. I do think the unemployment rate will tick up a little bit in twenty twenty five, and that gives the Fed a little bit of a reason maybe to move closer to their view.
We're neutralists, Stephen stain there, and I really can't say enough about oppression and talk less of is business investment. The core equation is why or our output equals C plus I plus G and then the trade on the back end, so that's consumption plus investment plus the government a part and then net exports as well, which is exports minus imports. And all of this is important but less talked about, particularly in financial media, is the eye is investment? Off the top of my head, it makes
up I think it's eleven percent of the economy. Maybe it's more. I stand corrected if I'm wrong, But Stephen Stanley saying that's one of his wild cards for the first half of twenty twenty five. What will be the appetite of business to move forward in the first half of the year. We thank you for your listen on our morning commute and on YouTube. Subscribe to Bloomberg Podcast on YouTube podcasts. This is single best idea,