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A single best idea, my last of the year. Thank you so much for the support. This has just been a little thing we've pulled out there. I figure people are listening to Odd Lots and Everybody's Business and all our wonderful podcasts. They're fifteen twenty minutes long. And the goal here was just a little vignette that you can throw in and listen to when the mood strikes. Our mood was to go for better conversation, longer conversation with smarter people, and to have back to back Stephen Major
and Jim Kern. Major now from HSBC and legendary Jim Karn called him the James Bond of fixed income. Stephen Major now at Tradition based out of Dubai. We celebrate that new set of duties for mister Major and then Jim Karen, iconic at Morgan Stanley. Back to back. That's the way we finished the year strong. You're Stephen Major, and you need to look at the five year yield.
If you want one number on the curve, it's probably five to thirty year. You can ask Jim next. Send in my regards, but Jim will have an idea as well. I think twos ten's can be quite distorted because two's is about the FED. That that is as simple as that. Two's is not a credit risk story. It's not a sovereign risk story. It's not about auctions or anything. Really,
twos is safe, twos is about the FED. Tens starts to be a bit more cyclical, a bit more about the data and looking into longer term sort of trends. I think fives thirties is your best measure of the curve because you're capturing something that is close to where the FED is and sensitive to rates, but not quite sensitive as twos, and I think I think it captures the whole story of five thirties.
You're Stephen Major of Tradition. He was really good. I asked him about Dubai and I just said, it's like a new Dubai and he was, Adam, I've been to Dubai four or five times and you know, it was earl in the boom if you will, and it was a little shaky. And he says, that's really gone. It's really captured a destination city much more than in previous decades. Stephen Major from Dubai with tradition on to Jim Karen
and Morgan Stanley. Yes, out with an outlook. But Jim Karn here on the fears we hold in fixed income.
Default risks are relatively low. We're not really seeing materially a material widening of default risks or increase in default risks. Interest rates, while they may drift a little bit higher in the back end, they don't seem like they're moving out of control. You know, they might go a little higher, but certainly not to levels that I think we'll destroy
the equity markets. So I think twenty twenty six, at least from the bond markets perspective, I don't think the bond market's going to get in the way of equities.
Jim Karen of Morgan Stanley. We're on on podcasts, on Apple, on Spotify, on YouTube podcasts. Single best Idea