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We rarely do this, but we do it today. We're going to devote our single best idea to one lonely economist. Stephen Englander came out of the Yale University, combined with Evanson and agricultural economics, and was definitive decades ago. It's city group in what's called cross rates, not the euro and the yen, the yen, the dollar, cable, sterling, the dollar, but on all the other nuances that were out there.
That's how you migrate to Bill Winters, the standard charter bank with a huge international and em almost the stereotype is a Pacific ocean feel Singapore, Australia up to Hong Kong, etc. Englander is definitive in foreign exchange and bringing it over to economics now. He is riveted on what this FED will do given the dual mandate, including collapsing employment. Steven Englander on a September fifty basis point rate.
Cut, Ultimately I think yes, and let me be clear, because we think that they do fifty and then they pause because GDP numbers aren't bad. Productivity looks like it's actually pretty good.
You sure. Sharma said that in the Ft today.
And the you know, you look at the labor numbers, as you know, they're really mediocre. It's sluggish, softish. But you know, as you know, I was at Lehman's in two thousand and eight. This is not a two thousand and eight type of labor market. That's not a twenty April twenty twenty labor market. It's a mediocre, sluggish, poor labor market where you know, you probably should get closer to neutral, but nothing is falling off a cliff.
With Steven Englander on a bigger broader theme, which is, Okay, we're all using AI. It's all changing our lives. Maybe it's like late nineteen ninety four, early ninety five in terms of technology changing the productivity the efficiency of America. But what's it mean for the FED here? Englander on AI.
You know, we all talk about AI all day long, and I think that that's going to be the real decisor for how the economy breaks. You know, in practice, given the absence of knowledge, it just means that you sort of go slowly in the direction that you think that data are telling you. I mean, there's no straw here with which to make bricks. And you know, you can critique the productivity data very easily as well. So I think that they sort of you know, you take
a step, you see what happens. Take another step, see what happens. If something bad happens, you stop, or you step back a little bit. If it looks good, you keep going.
Steven Angeloder the standard Charter Bank doctor Englander looks for the revision statistic to be dramatic negative three quarters of a million bodies maybe out two excuse me, seven hundred and fifty thousand bodies out to one million. Many others, including Bloomberg's Anda Wong, looking for a quiescent statistic of say, negative four hundred thousand. So I'm even more benign than that. It's a big debate, and we'll engage that debate tomorrow.
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