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Single best idea and just a great set of conversations today. One of the high points, so Stephen Kim came in from Evercore ISI on the American housing market. It was really really informative, just as one of the moments today, very big equity day, if you will. We started strong with Stephen Oth. We've federated our mess. Stephen oth is just iconic decades of experience here and he does what
the adults do. Not the next month, guests, the next year guess, but can they try to reach out to the might of the American economy to get to a two year view? Here off federated our mess.
We've got a two year target of eighty six hundred. We've got seventy eight hundred for next year, and really driven by earnings growth. At this stage, we've got earnings at yeah, three ninety out three years and you know, stocks et nominal DDP growth, nominal GDP growth looks really good to us. You've got the AI revolution driving earnings, You've got enormous productivity. We've got GDP next year up three percent. I think the consensus is too We've been
on the high side. All along, we've been more right than wrong on that. But you know, you've got a lot of stimulus coming next year that we think could get you a surprise on the upside.
A lot of different opinions out there. It's outlookd time I make a joke about it. Sam Ro does a great job over at TK of looking at each and every outlook. I'm sure I'll have a summary at some point, but I got to admit the needles tilted towards a more optimistic assessment right now. We shall see. We spoke with Dean Kurrent. He is definitive in the derivative space. The dynamics of options and futures there leverage nature and
all those Greek letters as well. Here dean current of macro Risk Advisors on the linkage of the standard impoores five hundred to the VIX.
If we look at the SMP, its relationship with the VIX is as old as time. You know, you can go back to the late eighties, the nineties and so forth, and it's always stocks up vixed down. That correlation is around negative eighty percent, but for the stocks themselves, So when the SMP rises, the VIX falls, but for single stocks, and it's not just meme stocks like GameStop. It could be Google, it could be Broadcom. The stocks are rising
and the market is assigning a higher implied volatility. It's a great question, and it really to me reflects a unique component, which is the stocks are options. In other words, when the stock rises, the potential that it rises much more actually goes up as well.
Just a window in the dynamics of derivatives and the movements that you see and options. I have a role of an option being four times leveraged to the underlying stock. That's just a rough, rough role, but that's some of the game you can play with options. Dean Kurnat talking there about the advantages of hedging your guests instead of a pure play in options. On the podcast, we're on Apple, we're in Spotify, others as well, including YouTube podcasts. A single best idea