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Single best idea and the single best idea is in doing this for decades plural. This has been one of the most extraordinary weeks. And what you do, it's a blur, folks. I mean, just to give you a little vignette here, Cy Benson's in my ears constantly with my headphones on, literally telling me what the next thing is, tick by tick by tick, because Paul and I are looking at eight things going on in real time and we can't keep track of like what's next, or what's out three
things or that. And with the quality of the conversations that we had this week, given this amazing news flow culminating in all the terrif announcements today and then this jobs report, it's just the privilege of these conversation. And you remember one single sentence out there, here's the sentence of the week, and it's from Lyle Brainer, the vice chairman of the Fed, thrilled that she could join us from Harvard, and doctor Brainer said simply, they want to
bring in revenue, and that was the same. I'm not saying I agree that that's a public policy with tariffs, but at half a trillion or four hundred billion, whatever the number is, it's a big number and that's what this is about. As all America faces the combination of this job's economy and the tariff discussion, and then it redounds back to the market with as we fill this right now the doubt negative seven hundred, we'll see where we end up out in the far distance of four PM.
Single best idea, Stephanie Roth nailed it with Wolf Research. We had her in quickly for a victory lap. It's rare that an economist can come in at eightousand, and when the shock number was seventy three thousand, Stephanie Roth goes to the Mexican border.
I think the main thing that we took away from this print is that immigration is having a big impact on the labor market. And this is not just because depressing the July print, but also the reasons for the big revisions that are and should be making headlines today. They are because this is a labor market where headline job gains. The break even steady state pace of job growth has slowed down substantially, and that will be the
case for quite some time given the immigration policy. Yet it tightens the labor market keeps the unemployment rate largely steady. It puts up a pressure on inflation on top of the tariff inflation.
In the budget, laby El modeling out a lift in the unemployment rate out of eighteen months. And who knows what that migration will be. But I hear four point seven, four point eight eighty different flavors, different analysis. All I know is four point nine is distant from five point zero. Michael Darta knows that as well. Roth Michael Darta bringing in the markets into our discussion of the American economy.
So the markets have priced in ninety one basis points over the next twelve months. So does the FMC guide markets for more than that or less than that?
You know?
Right now?
I mean, I think you've got quite a bit of division on the committee. We did get two descents. That's the first time too. Fed Governor's descent to.
This way genius is this morning.
Since nineteen ninety three, right, But I think the focus has to be on price stability. I mean, obviously the FED wants to preserve the business site, but inflation is still above target. And if the FED is going to be harangued and cajoled into cutting rates when it's perhaps inappropriately inappropriate to do so. If inflation expectations go up, then long term interest rates go up, not down. So if the president's concerned about debt financing costs, let the
Fed do its job. You know, let's return Plation two. Target and price stability is the number one way that you're going to have moderate market interest rates. The other way is get the fiscal house in order in Washington, DC has good luck for that fate planted in that regard.
Michael Darter, with wisdom there from Roth Capital, I would suggest we are deep into August, and all that means is we're getting towards an election in twenty twenty six. Some would say it's begun now, but let's be charitable and saying four or five months. I don't think the politicians and all of our House of Representatives is going to be worrying about the inflation dynamic here. They're going to be looking at that labor market and we're committed
to covering it here in the coming months. The Shock revision today, thank you again with the leadership of Anahong of Bloomberg Economics, she was brilliant. Today we're on podcasts it's a new rage. They keep telling me Apple, thank you so much if I thank you, and on YouTube podcasts it's the single best idea