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A single best idea, the single best idea in July is to avoid the summer doldrums and focus. You can focus on reading, you can focus on some of the conversations that we have. I just finished my book of the summer, Ken Rogoff's Our Dollar, Your Problem Adam posing with us today. Off of that, a great summinar coming up in September with Ken Rogoff at the Peterson Institute. But there's a lot to think about and talk about, even in the eighty five and ninety degree heat. So
let us get started. Stephanie Roth at Wolf Research Optimistic Q three, optimistic Q four a real change in tone to a better economy. Here's Stephanie Roth.
I mean, this has been a difficult backdrop the forecast, but I have conviction that three could be okay and then Q four could start getting better. And the reasons are we're currently now absorbing the terriff impact that should take a couple of minds unknown, which wasn't no. No. Now it's still an unknown, but less less unown than it was, so we had we're sort of pointing in our estimates in terms of what's being absorbed. We're are based on our own numbers where we've absorbed that thirty
five percent of the impact. We expect that we'll see that for the next couple of months. So we still might see a sluggish brack drop through Q three Q four. That should start to inflect higher. You should start to see travel demand improve, good spending. There's a bit of an air pocket right now that should pick up. And then you start to look into twenty twenty six where fiscal stimula should have an effect on the economy, about boosting GDP by about forty point.
A real nugget there where Stephanie Roth says thirty five percent of the tariff angst maybe has been unwound so far. I have no clue, but that's a good working number to move forward with Libby control, with us, with PIMCO, and later in the conversation usual Washington talk, I asked her about the America that's being left behind. Let's listen.
I think that's absolutely right, and I mean, this is part of the reason why I think the majority of Americans elected President Trump is that they did feel like the sort of the establishment that the elites, the Bloomberg elites, if you will, Tom, we're you know, we're leaving the kind of the working person behind. I'm not sure if those folks feel like that. The Trump administration elites yet yet have addressed some of those concerns, particularly around cost
of living. I mean, these are all, you know, kitchen table issues. These are still are the most important for voters. And I'm not that that doesn't seem to have gone away if you just look at least that's for the pulling. Take that with a grain of salt.
Let me Kentrell. They're really interesting political discussions today. ConTroll with PIMCO, and thank you Wendy Schiller Brown University as well. In the midterm elections, they're out there. They're not upon us, but you know, November of twenty twenty six in some way or foreign beckons, thank you so much for your interest. On podcasts on Spotify, on Apple podcasts as well, and on YouTube podcasts. It's single best idea.