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Single best idea in the first full week of the year jobs report on Friday, Goldman Sachs coming out with a tepid look. Thank you David Miracle for sending that over consensus is one sixties. I don't know where the whisper number is. Michael McKee knows that, but they're down at one twenty with an elevated unemployment rate to four point three percent. Just one view of that from you
on Azziisen team over at Goldman Sachs. We spoke with Seth Carpenter of Morgan Stanley today, wide ranging discussion, really really interesting, and one of the great things we talked about was just the state of the economy and the path forward here. Seth Carpenter of Morgan Stanley.
So, I think every year and there's a bit of revision, I suspect there is a good chance that we're going to see a bit more than I think in the near dart right over the next three months, that so called residual seasonality that we've seen in the PCE inflation numbers.
I think that's a real possibility here that could throw the throw a real curveball for the FED, I will say the numbers on employment right, given how much immigration we've had over the past couple of years, and as the BLS tries to catch up with sort of their different surveys, I think we could see some more revisions this year. Twenty twenty five is probably the most difficult forecasting year since twenty twenty and maybe early twenty twenty
one when we had COVID. I mean, this is a really tricky year for forecasting.
That's a really important comment from a guy I worked at the Federal Reserve, at the Treasury, and of course his work at Princeton under Ben Bernanke a number of years ago. Further seth Carpenter here, I'm not so much like getting a crystal ball out and gaming the future and all the marketing blah blah blah forecasts. He taught about the risks ahead.
You know, usually we do our year ahead forecasts and it's supposed to be a bit of a roadmap for people. But now this time around, it's more of a set of risks and how to start to create a framework for those risks. So for economic policies that might move the macro needle, you know, we break it down into trade policy, tariffs, immigration policy, fiscal policy, and then deregulation.
And what might be slightly controversial is we've said for those last two fiscal policy and deregulation, maybe move those off the table for twenty twenty five for macro implications. Deregulation I think is going to be huge at a micro level and definitely for individual sectors in parts of the equity market, But in terms of GDP inflation, that sort of thing, I'm not convinced it matters at all
for at least for twenty twenty five. Similarly, fiscal policy we're at least for now assuming the Congress spends the better part of the year extending the tax cuts, and so again it off the table for twenty twenty five. So we're really looking at tariff policy and immigration policy as the key factors here.
Seth Carpenter of Morgan Stanley. The view Ford is simple, an eventful year. There will be a focus on international relations, the politics of America as we moved to the inauguration, But I really have to say we're going to stay focused on markets, on equities, bonds, currencies and commodities, and I have to say front center for me right now is gleaning the dollar I came in today my Bloomberg launch pad. I probably have twenty currency pairs, I'm guessing,
and all of it was quiescent. Except and those are the kind of things we're going to try to bring to you. Except today was a Chinese y want with a two day jump condition. Weaker from the very managed trend that you see out of Beijing, you wonder as a weaker in Nby and Order. Here is a solution for the horrific real estate domestic finance crisis, and a
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